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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thur., Aug.15 - Sat., Aug.17)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thur., Aug.15 - Sat., Aug.17)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, August 15 - Saturday, August 17

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Betting Recap - Week 9
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    This Week


    -- Favorites went 4-0 SU in Week 9
    -- Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 9
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 9
    -- Road teams posted a 4-0 ATS record in Week 9
    -- The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 9

    Year To Date

    -- Favorites are 24-11 SU overall
    -- Underdogs are 20-15 ATS overall
    -- Home teams are 23-12 SU overall
    -- Home teams are 18-17 ATS overall
    -- The 'Under' is 20-15 overall

    Analysis

    Calgary (5-3)
    suffered another setback in Week 9, dropping a 26-24 decision on the road against Winnipeg (6-2), although they were able to cover at 7 1/2-point underdogs. The Stamps have now covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season, going 2-0 ATS after a 1-5 ATS start. The 'over' result in Week 9 was a rarity, too, snapping a five-game under streak.

    As far as the Blue Bombers are concerned, they were able to snap a two-game mini losing streak, including a loss to lowly Toronto (1-6) last time out. Despite the win, the Bombers are now 0-3 ATS across the past three games after a 5-0 ATS start. The 'over' connected for the second straight week, the first time that's happened for Winnipeg this season.

    Friday night was a weird game in Montreal (3-4). Near the end of the third quarter the game between the home side Alouettes and Saskatchewan (5-3) was stopped due to lightning and heavy rain at McGill. The CFL has a rule that states if the game is more than halfway over and there is a weather delay longer than one hour, the game will be canceled. It's the first time in history that the rule has been put to the test, but the Roughriders were awarded the 17-10 victory after the hour, much to the dismay of CFL fans everywhere, at least those not wearing green. Speaking of green, none was exchanged on this game officially, as all wagers were graded 'no action'.

    Ottawa (3-5) and Edmonton (5-3) were able to go the distance in a low-scoring battle at Commonwealth Stadium. The Eskimos have alternated wins and losses in each of their past seven outings, and they're just 1-3 ATS over the past four. Edmonton is a favorite of bettors at the window, however, as far as the total is concerned. The under has cashed in six straight outings after two consecutive overs to start the season.

    For the RedBlacks, they have lost five of the past six games overall, but they have covered a season-high three in a row after kicking off the season 1-4 ATS. The under is 3-1 over their past four outings, too.

    The BCLions (1-7) nearly pulled off the huge road upset in the CFL Hall of Fame Game at Tim Horton's in Hamilton. The Lions led throughout the game, nearly winning straight-up as 9 1/2-point underdogs (+320 ML). However, Hamilton (6-2) was able to rally for the 35-34 squeaker. The Tiger-Cats are 0-2 ATS over the past two after opening 5-1 ATS in the first six.

    The Lions will get another crack at the Tabbies on Aug. 24 in Vancouver. The cover was the first for the Lions since June 29 in Calgary, snapping an 0-4 ATS skid. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for the Lions, and 6-2 in the past eight overall. BC has allowed 33 or more points in seven of their eight games this season.

    Team Betting Notes

    -- BC and Winnipeg battle on Thursday night, as the Lions try to finish off a huge upset this week. However, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven on the road, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record while going 2-9 ATS in the past 11 overall.

    -- The Bombers have covered 11 of the past 16 overall despite their Week 9 non-cover, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven at home. In this series, Winnipeg is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six at home vs. BC, while going 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings overall in this series. The over is also 8-2 in the past 10 meetings between the Lions and Bombers, including 5-2 in the past seven battles in Winnipeg.

    -- Edmonton travels to Toronto looking to snap their alternating win-loss pattern. The Esks are just 1-6 ATS in the past seven games on the road, while going 1-4 ATS in their past five in the month of August.

    -- Toronto is coming off a bye, and they're 6-1 ATS in their past seven following the off week. They're just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games overall, however, and 1-5 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning overall mark. They're also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a cover in their previous outing. In this series, Toronto is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, while the over is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings and 5-2 in the past seven in Toronto.

    -- Hamilton and Ottawa lock horns in the nation's capital. The Ti-Cats are 1-4 ATS in the past five games on the road, while going 2-5 ATS in the past seven against East Division teams. They're also 0-3-1 ATS in the past four in the month of August.

    -- For the RedBlacks, they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning record, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six against East teams. Ottawa has also covered four straight meetings with Hamilton, while the over has cashed in seven of the past eight meetings in Canada's capital city.

    -- The Alouettes look to rebound after a difficult loss against the Roughriders last week in that weather-shortened game. They face a tough trip to Calgary. Montreal is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 road games, while connecting in eight of their past 10 against winning teams.

    -- The Stamps are 1-4 ATS in the past five against losing teams, and 1-5 ATS in the past six following a straight-up loss. However, they're 24-7-1 ATS in the past 32 games in the month of August. The under has been the way for both teams lately, going 10-4 in Montreal's past 14 road games, and 5-1 in the past six overall for Calgary. In this series, the under is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings, including 4-1 in the past five in Calgary. Montreal has covered eight of the past nine meetings with Calgary, too.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 10
    David Schwab

    Week 9 Betting Recap

    Last week’s action in the CFL got underway on Thursday night with Winnipeg slipping past Calgary 26-24 as a 7 ½-point home favorite to remain at the top of the standings in the West Division title race.

    Friday’s doubleheader of betting action started with Saskatchewan going on the road as a three-point favorite and knocking off Montreal 17-10. Later that night, Edmonton kept pace in the West by beating Ottawa 16-12, but the Eskimos could not cover the closing 9 ½-point spread. Hamilton closed out Week 9 on Saturday night with a 35-34 victory at home against British Columbia. The Tiger-Cats also failed to cover as 9 ½-point favorites.

    Thursday, Aug. 15

    British Columbia Lions (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)
    Point-spread: Winnipeg -12
    Total: 51


    Game Overview

    BC covered against the spread for the first time in five games in Saturday’s loss and the total has gone OVER in six of the Lions’ first eight games. Mike Reilly completed 21 of his 28 passes against Hamilton for 306 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw a pair of interceptions. He is currently ranked second in the CFL in passing yards (1,974) and he has thrown eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. John White ran the ball 15 times for 124 yards in the losing effort.

    The Bombers have failed to cover in their last three games closing as favorites in each contest. The total went OVER 49 ½ points in Thursday’s win and it has gone OVER in three of their last five games. Winnipeg is 3-1 ATS at home this season. Janarion Grant had a big game against Calgary with two punt returns for touchdowns. He amassed over 300 yards in returns to help pace that crucial win. Matt Nichols threw for 177 yards and Andrew Harris added another 100 yards on the ground averaging 5.3 yards a carry.

    Betting Trends

    -- Winnipeg is 4-1 both straight-up ATS in its last five home games against the Lions. It is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall with the total going OVER in eight of the last 10 matchups in this West Division clash.


    Friday, Aug. 16

    Edmonton Eskimos (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS)
    Point-spread: Edmonton -10
    Total: 50


    Game Overview

    After failing to cover against Ottawa, the Eskimos are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The total stayed UNDER 49 points in Friday’s win and it has stayed UNDER in their last six games. Edmonton is 1-3 ATS in four previous road games this season. CJ Gable was the difference on Friday night with 116 yards rushing and a pair of scores on 18 rushing attempts. Trevor Harris completed 33-of-40 passing attempts for 327 yards, but he could not get Edmonton into the end zone through the air. He leads the CFL in total passing yards with 2,631 in eight games.

    Toronto is coming off a bye after posting its first win of the season the week before against Winnipeg. The Argonauts stunned the Blue Bombers 28-27 as heavy 15-point home underdogs. They have covered in three of their last five games with the total staying UNDER in four of the seven games played. Toronto has closed as a double-digit underdog in five of its last six games. Mcleod Bethel-Thompson has taken the majority of the snaps at quarterback and he has tossed 10 touchdowns against nine interceptions.

    Betting Trends

    -- Edmonton won the first meeting this season 26-0 as an 11-point home favorite. This was its sixth SU win against Toronto in the last eight meetings. The total stayed UNDER 52 points in that game, but it has gone OVER in 10 of the last 14 games in this inter-division tilt.


    Saturday, Aug. 17

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
    Point-spread: Hamilton -4
    Total: 52 ½


    Game Overview

    Hamilton’s lead in the East Division title race is now three games in the win column with Montreal and Ottawa losing last week. It is a perfect 5-0 SU at home with a 1-2 record both SU and ATS on the road. The Tiger-Cats are 4-2 ATS this year when closing as favorites. Hamilton trailed BC 34-19 heading into the fourth quarter on Saturday night before mounting its comeback. Dane Evans passed for 260 yards and two scores. He completed nine passes to Brandon Banks for 137 yards and both touchdowns.

    Ottawa has lost five of its last six games SU, but it has covered in its last three outings closing as an underdog. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its last six games. The RedBlacks are 1-3 ATS at home this season. Dominique Davis was under center against Edmonton and he completed 23-of-35 passing attempts for 289 yards and one touchdown against a pair of interceptions. He has thrown five touchdowns this season and a league-high 11 picks.

    Betting Trends

    -- The RedBlacks have won their last five games against Hamilton SU and they have a 5-2 SU record in their last seven home games against the Tiger-Cats. The total has gone OVER in eight of the last nine meetings in Ottawa.

    Montreal Alouettes (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS)
    Point-spread: Calgary -5
    Total: 52


    Game Overview

    The Alouettes have lost their last two games SU and ATS following a three-game winning streak each way. The total went OVER in three of those last five games. They are 4-2 ATS this season when closing as underdogs. Montreal was held scoreless in the second half against Saskatchewan in a game that was cut short due to weather. Antonio Pipkin and Matt Shiltz completed a combined nine passes on 15 attempts for 90 yards. The offense only added another 51 yards running the ball.

    Thursday’s loss snapped Calgary’s SU three-game winning streak. It has covered in its last two game after going 1-5 ATS in its first six contests. The Stampeders are 1-3 ATS at home and 0-4 ATS when closing as favorites. Nick Arbuckle remains the starting quarterback for an injured Bo Levi Mitchell. He threw for 260 yards and one score in Thursday’s loss. He completed 22 passes to eight different players. Calgary rushed for 56 yards on 12 rushing attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Montreal has covered the closing spread in eight of its last nine games against the Stampeders and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Calgary. The Stamps are 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games in this inter-division matchup.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-17-2019 at 10:49 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 10


    Thursday, August 15

    BC Lions @ Winnipeg

    Game 689-690
    August 15, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    BC Lions
    100.363
    Winnipeg
    117.384
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 17
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 11 1/2
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (-11 1/2); Over


    Friday, August 16

    Edmonton @ Toronto


    Game 691-692
    August 16, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Edmonton
    122.453
    Toronto
    96.665
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 26
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 9
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-9); Under


    Saturday, August 17

    Hamilton @ Ottawa


    Game 693-694
    August 17, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hamilton
    109.520
    Ottawa
    111.128
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    by 1 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Hamilton
    by 3 1/2
    50
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (+3 1/2); Under

    Montreal @ Calgary


    Game 695-696
    August 17, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Montreal
    114.569
    Calgary
    116.044
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 1 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 7
    52
    Dunkel Pick:
    Montreal
    (+7); Under





    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 10


    Thursday, August 15

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    BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 7) at WINNIPEG (6 - 2) - 8/15/2019, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games in August games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 4-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 3-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, August 16

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    EDMONTON (5 - 3) at TORONTO (1 - 6) - 8/16/2019, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    EDMONTON is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 58-82 ATS (-32.2 Units) when playing on a Friday since 1996.
    TORONTO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
    TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 4-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, August 17

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HAMILTON (6 - 2) at OTTAWA (3 - 5) - 8/17/2019, 4:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1996.
    OTTAWA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 5-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 6-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MONTREAL (3 - 4) at CALGARY (5 - 3) - 8/17/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in August games since 1996.
    MONTREAL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MONTREAL is 3-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 3-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    CFL

    Week 10


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, August 15

    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
    British Columbia is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of British Columbia's last 9 games
    British Columbia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    British Columbia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games on the road
    British Columbia is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of British Columbia's last 10 games when playing Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
    Winnipeg is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Winnipeg is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games at home
    Winnipeg is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 10 games when playing British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing at home against British Columbia


    Friday, August 16

    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Edmonton is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games
    Edmonton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Edmonton is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Edmonton's last 9 games on the road
    Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Edmonton is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Edmonton's last 14 games when playing Toronto
    Edmonton is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
    Toronto is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
    Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home
    Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 14 games when playing Edmonton
    Toronto is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton


    Saturday, August 17

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games
    Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Hamilton's last 8 games on the road
    Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    Hamilton is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Hamilton's last 9 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 9 games when playing at home against Hamilton

    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
    Montreal is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games
    Montreal is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Montreal is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Montreal's last 14 games on the road
    Montreal is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
    Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Montreal's last 10 games when playing Calgary
    Montreal is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games
    Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games at home
    Calgary is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Montreal
    Calgary is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing Montreal
    Calgary is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-14-2019 at 10:10 PM.

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