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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur., Aug.8 - Sat., Aug.10)

  1. #1
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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur., Aug.8 - Sat., Aug.10)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, August 8 - Saturday, August 10

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Betting Recap - Week 8
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    This Week


    -- Underdogs went 3-1 SU in Week 8
    -- Underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 8
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 8
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 8
    -- The total went 2-2 in Week 8

    Year To Date

    -- Favorites are 20-11 SU overall
    -- Underdogs are 17-14 ATS overall
    -- Home teams are 20-11 SU overall
    -- Home teams are 18-13 ATS overall
    -- The 'Under' is 18-13 overall

    Analysis

    Toronto captured its first victory of the season in Week 8 as it pulled off a 28-27 victory over Winnipeg on Thursday. Quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson led the club back from a 20-0 deficit and the game-winning touchdown pass came with 10 seconds remaining.

    The Argonauts were listed as 15-point home underdogs and bettors taking a chance on the upset were rewarded with money-line payouts as high as +650 (Bet $100 to win $650). The 28 points scored for the Argos was a season-high and that offensive effort helped the ‘over’ (49) cash as well.

    After starting the season 5-0, the Blue Bombers have now lost two consecutive games and the defense has allowed 26.5 points per game in those setbacks compared to 16 PPG in the victories.

    The lone favorite to win in Week 8 was Saskatchewan, who defeated Hamilton 24-19 on Thursday as a 3 ½-point home favorite. The Roughriders have now won and covered three straight games and that victory pushed them to 3-1 both SU and ATS at home.

    The Tiger-Cats fell to 1-2 on the road with the loss, their only victory coming against last place Toronto.

    After falling behind 17-8 after the first quarter, Ottawa outscored Montreal 22-10 over the final 45 minutes and captured a 30-27 win on Friday as a 6 ½-point road underdog. The Redblacks dropped a 36-19 decision at home to Montreal in Week 5 and this victory got them even on the season. The ‘over’ has hit in both games.

    The win for the Redblacks snapped a four-game losing streak and the offensive production was surprising after the team was held to 12.5 PPG during the skid.

    Montreal was playing with rest off the bye and Friday’s loss snapped their three-game winning streak. The club sits at 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS on the season.

    Saturday’s finale watched Calgary outlast Edmonton 24-18 as a one-point home underdog. The Stampeders led 9-0 at halftime and held firm in the final 30 minutes. The ‘under’ (47) was never in doubt and the low side has now cashed in five straight games for the Stamps.

    Despite owning a 5-2 straight up record, Calgary is just 2-5 versus the point-spread on the season and that includes this win and cover.

    Going back to Week 2, the Eskimos have alternated wins and losses in their last six games both SU and ATS. Including Saturday’s loss at Calgary, the club is now 1-3 as a visitor this season.

    Similar to the Stamps, the ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run for the Eskimos as well and that mark comes after Edmonton started the season with back-to-back easy ‘over’ winners.

    British Columbia (1-6) was off in Week 8 and the team needed a break after losing a home-and-home series to Saskatchewan by a combined scored of 83-43. The Lions will visit Hamilton in Week 9.

  3. #3
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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 9
    David Schwab

    Week 8 Betting Recap

    The month of August started with a doubleheader of CFL action last Thursday night. Toronto posted its first straight-up win of the season in dramatic fashion with a stunning 28-27 upset against Winnipeg as a heavy 15-point home underdog. Later that night, Saskatchewan came away with a 24-19 victory against Hamilton covering as a 3 ½-point favorite at home.

    Friday night’s game ended with Ottawa outlasting Montreal 30-27 to pull off the upset as a six-point road underdog. Week 8 came to an end on Saturday night with Calgary upending Edmonton 24-18 as a slight one-point underdog at home.

    Thursday, Aug. 8

    Calgary Stampeders (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
    Point-spread: Winnipeg -8 ½
    Total: 48 ½


    Game Overview

    First place in the West Division is on the line in this matchup. Calgary has won its last three games SU and it covered against the spread for the first time in its last four outings. The total has stayed UNDER the closing line in the Stampeders’ last five outings.

    Nick Arbuckle continues to fill in at quarterback for an injured Bo Levi Mitchell. He threw for 189 yards and one touchdown with one interception in Saturday’s win. Calgary added 55 yards rushing with six different players carrying the ball.

    Winnipeg has now dropped its last two games both SU and ATS after losing to Hamilton 23-15 in Week 7 as a two-point road favorite. The total went OVER 49 points in the loss to Toronto after it had stayed UNDER in four of its previous five games.

    The Blue Bombers built an early 20-0 lead against the Argonauts in Thursday’s loss before letting things slip away in the second half. Matt Nichols completed 67.7 percent of his 31 passing attempts for 169 yards and one score. Andrew Harris racked up 152 yards and two scores on the ground on 15 carries.

    Betting Trends

    -- Over 22 games in this heated West Division rivalry, Calgary has won 19 of those meetings SU. The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 12 meetings in Winnipeg.


    Friday, Aug. 9

    Saskatchewan Roughriders (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS)
    Point-spread: Saskatchewan -2
    Total: 53


    Game Overview

    The Roughriders are just one game off the pace in the West with a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS. They are 5-2 ATS over their last seven games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five contests. It stayed UNDER 49 points in Thursday’s win against Hamilton.

    Cody Fajardo has established himself as the starting quarterback for Saskatchewan. He threw for 313 yards his last time out while completing an impressive 80.6 percent of his 31 passes. He also led the team in rushing for 56 yards and a score on 9 carries.

    Montreal’s three-game winning streak (SU and ATS) came to an end with Friday’s loss to Ottawa. This was the first time the Alouettes closed as favorites this season. The total went OVER 52 points in that loss and it has gone OVER in four of six games this year.

    Quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. left Friday’s game in the third quarter with a neck and head injury. Antonio Pipkin took his place and completed 8-of-17 passes for 57 yards. Adams’ status for this Friday remains up in the air.

    Betting Trends

    -- Montreal has covered in five of its last seven home games against Saskatchewan and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in 17 of the last 21 meetings in Montreal.

    Ottawa RedBlacks (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS)
    Point-spread: Edmonton -9
    Total: 49


    Game Overview

    The RedBlacks got Dominique Davis back at quarterback and they were able to snap a SU four-game losing streak. He put the ball up 34 times and completed 20 passes for 164 yards and a score. The rust was evident with a 58.8 percent completion rate and two interceptions, but his play was good enough to help secure the win. Seven different players caught at least one pass in the winning effort.

    Ottawa had scored a combined 50 points in those four previous losses.

    Edmonton slipped to 3-3 ATS this season when closing as a favorite. The total stayed UNDER 47 points in Saturday’s loss and it has stayed UNDER in its last five contests. The Eskimos were held scoreless in the first half against Calgary and they managed just 28 yards rushing on nine rushing attempts.

    Trevor Harris ended the game with 373 yards passing and two touchdown throws. He is first in the CFL in passing yards this season with 2,304 in seven games. He has tossed 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions.

    Betting Trends

    -- Edmonton has won 15 of the last 20 meetings SU and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six games between the two. The Eskimos have won nine of their last 10 home games against Ottawa SU.


    Saturday, Aug. 10

    British Columbia Lions (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
    Point-spread: Hamilton -13 ½
    Total: 52


    Game Overview

    BC returns from a bye week with a SU three-game losing streak. It has failed to cover the closing spread in its last four contests. The total went OVER 51 ½ points in a 45-18 loss to Saskatchewan in Week 7 and it has gone OVER in five of the Lions’ first seven games.

    Mike Reilly is third in the league in passing with 1,668 total yards on a completion rate of 66.5 percent. He has thrown six touchdowns and six interceptions in his first seven starts for BC.

    The Tiger-Cats lost quarterback Jeramiah Masoli for the season in a Week 7 win against Winnipeg as two-point home underdogs. Dane Evans took his place in Thursday’s loss and completed 19-of-29 passes for 196 yards. He threw one touchdown pass to Anthony Coombs and he was picked off once. Evans was able to complete at least one pass to seven different players. He was the team’s leading rusher in that game with 35 yards on four attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Hamilton has a SU 5-2 edge in its last seven home games against the Lions and the total has gone OVER in nine of the last 13 meetings overall in this inter-division clash.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-09-2019 at 01:15 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 9


    Thursday, August 8

    Calgary @ Winnipeg

    Game 681-682
    August 8, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    116.334
    Winnipeg
    117.193
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 1
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 8
    48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (+8); Under


    Friday, August 9

    Saskatchewan @ Montreal


    Game 683-684
    August 9, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Saskatchewan
    98.756
    Montreal
    113.185
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Montreal
    by 14 1/2
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Saskatchewan
    by 2 1/2
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Montreal
    (+2 1/2); Over

    Ottawa @ Edmonton


    Game 685-686
    August 9, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    107.230
    Edmonton
    117.721
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 10 1/2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 8
    48
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-8); Under


    Saturday, August 10

    BC Lions @ Hamilton


    Game 687-688
    August 10, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    BC Lions
    97.062
    Hamilton
    119.847
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hamilton
    by 23
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Hamilton
    by 10 1/2
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    Hamilton
    (-10 1/2); Over





    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 9


    Thursday, August 8

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    CALGARY (5 - 2) at WINNIPEG (5 - 2) - 8/8/2019, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WINNIPEG is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CALGARY is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) in August games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 3-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, August 9

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    SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 3) at MONTREAL (3 - 3) - 8/9/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MONTREAL is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MONTREAL is 2-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
    MONTREAL is 2-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OTTAWA (3 - 4) at EDMONTON (4 - 3) - 8/9/2019, 10:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    EDMONTON is 2-2 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 3-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, August 10

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    BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 6) at HAMILTON (5 - 2) - 8/10/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games in August games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HAMILTON is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    HAMILTON is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CFL

    Week 9


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    Trend Report
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    Thursday, August 8

    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games
    Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Calgary is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
    Calgary is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Calgary is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Calgary's last 12 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
    Winnipeg is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
    Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Winnipeg is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games at home
    Winnipeg is 6-10-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Calgary
    Winnipeg is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Calgary
    Winnipeg is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Calgary
    Winnipeg is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 12 games when playing at home against Calgary


    Friday, August 9

    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Saskatchewan is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games on the road
    Saskatchewan is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Montreal
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing Montreal
    Saskatchewan is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Saskatchewan is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Saskatchewan's last 21 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
    Montreal is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Montreal's last 8 games
    Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Montreal is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games at home
    Montreal is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Montreal is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
    Montreal is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Montreal's last 21 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan

    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Ottawa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    Ottawa is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games on the road
    Ottawa is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    Ottawa is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Ottawa is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Edmonton Eskimos
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games
    Edmonton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Edmonton is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    Edmonton is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    Edmonton is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing at home against Ottawa



    Saturday, August 10

    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games
    British Columbia is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of British Columbia's last 8 games
    British Columbia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    British Columbia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of British Columbia's last 13 games when playing Hamilton
    British Columbia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Hamilton is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games
    Hamilton is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Hamilton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Hamilton's last 13 games when playing British Columbia
    Hamilton is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against British Columbia


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