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Thread: Thursday's (8-8) Tip Sheet

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    Default Thursday's (8-8) Tip Sheet

    Thursday's Tip Sheet
    Kevin Rogers

    Note:
    Quarterback rotation subject to change.

    Jets (-1 ˝, 33) at Giants - 7:00 PM EST

    N.Y. Jets

    Head Coach: Adam Gase (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Sam Darnold, Trevor Siemian, Davis Webb, Luke Falk

    The Jets closed out last season with losses in nine of their final 10 games, but New York will look to start fresh this season under new head coach Adam Gase. New York added running back Le'Veon Bell to the fold after he sat out last season with the Steelers due to a contract dispute as the Jets ranked in the bottom-10 of the NFL in rushing yards in 2018. The Jets blanked the Falcons in their 2018 preseason opener, but went on to lose the final three contests, including a 22-16 setback to the Giants.

    N.Y. Giants
    Head Coach: Pat Shumur (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Daniel Jones (Rookie), Alex Tanney, Eric Dungey

    The Giants are fresh off their fourth season of at least 10 losses in the last five years after a 5-11 campaign. New York split its four preseason contests in 2018, as both wins came as the road team, while losing in low-scoring affairs at Met Life Stadium to Cleveland and New England. The Giants have dropped four consecutive preseason openers, but Big Blue has defeated the rival Jets in four of the last five exhibition meetings.

    Colts (-1 ˝, 34) at Bills - 7:00 PM EST

    Indianapolis

    Head Coach: Frank Reich (3-1 SU, 3-0-1 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Phillip Walker, Chad Kelly

    The expectations are high on the Colts this season after reaching the divisional playoffs last season as Indianapolis went 9-1 down the stretch. Andrew Luck put together one of the best seasons of his career by throwing for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdown passes. Indianapolis was notorious for being a terrible preseason bet for years, but the Colts have improved in the exhibition season by winning seven of their last 12, including posting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS mark in 2018.

    Buffalo
    Head Coach: Sean McDermott (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Tyree Jackson (Rookie)

    The Bills were thought to be a 2 or 3 win team after getting slaughtered by the Ravens in Week 1 last September. However, Buffalo found a way to win six games, including three home victories following the bye week. The Bills split their four preseason contests in 2018 with both wins coming away from New Era Field. Buffalo went 0-2 SU/ATS as a favorite, but won and covered in its two opportunities as an underdog. The Bills have dropped five consecutive preseason openers, including a 19-18 setback to the Colts in the 2016 exhibition opener.

    Patriots (-1, 35 ˝) at Lions - 7:30 PM EST

    New England

    Head Coach: Bill Belichick (53-44 SU, 47-43-7 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Danny Etling, Jarrett Stidham (Rookie)

    Tom Brady enters his 19th season as starting quarterback for the defending champion Patriots, who captured their sixth Super Bowl title by holding off the Rams, 13-3 this past February. The Patriots posted a 3-1 SU/ATS mark in the 2018 preseason, which included victories over Washington and Philadelphia at home. Both road games finished UNDER the total, while the Patriots last faced the Lions in preseason action back in 2017 at Ford Field as New England won, 30-28.

    Detroit
    Head Coach: Matt Patricia (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Tom Savage, David Fales

    The first season under new head coach Matt Patricia was underwhelming in Detroit as the Lions finished 6-10, but it did include a 26-10 blowout of New England in a primetime affair in Week 3. The Lions put together a 1-3 SU/ATS mark in the 2018 preseason, while scoring 17 points in each of the three losses. In the only preseason victory at Tampa Bay, the Lions erased a 27-6 third quarter deficit to trip up the Buccaneers, 33-30.

    Redskins (-1, 35) at Browns - 7:30 PM EST

    Washington

    Head Coach: Jay Gruden (12-8 SU, 11-9 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Dwayne Haskins (Rookie), Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Josh Woodrum

    Washington jumped out to a solid 6-3 start before quarterback Alex Smith's gruesome leg injury in a home loss to Houston. The Redskins spun out of control and lost six of their final seven games to finish below .500. The quarterback of the future for Washington is former Ohio State standout Dwayne Haskins, as the Redskins look to finish above third place in the NFC East for the first time since winning the division in 2015. Washington has lost three consecutive preseason openers, while losing four of the past six road exhibition contests.

    Cleveland
    Head Coach: Freddie Kitchens (First season)
    Quarterback Rotation: Baker Mayfield, Drew Stanton, Garrett Gilbert, David Blough (Rookie)

    For the first time in years, the Browns are one of the teams to watch this season following several offseason pickups, including wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. from the Giants. Cleveland finished just short of the playoffs in 2018, but quarterback Baker Mayfield impressed in his rookie season by throwing for 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns. The Browns managed a 3-1 SU/ATS record in the 2018 preseason, while limiting all four opponents to 19 points or fewer, resulting in a 3-1 mark to the UNDER.

    Falcons at Dolphins (-4, 35 ˝) - 7:30 PM EST

    Atlanta

    Head Coach: Dan Quinn (5-12 SU, 4-13 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Kurt Benkert

    The Falcons dropped their preseason opener in the Hall of Fame game against the Broncos last Thursday, 14-10. Atlanta fell to 0-9 SU/ATS in the last nine exhibition games dating back to 2017, while scoring less than 20 points for the 11th straight preseason contest. The loser of the last eight Hall of Fame games has gone 5-3 in Week 1 of the preseason, while the OVER has hit in six of those eight contests. The Falcons have lost four consecutive preseason matchups with the Dolphins since 2015, including a 34-7 blowout at Mercedes Benz Stadium last season.

    Miami
    Head Coach: Brian Flores (First season)
    Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen, Jake Rudock

    The Dolphins don't have high expectations this season as they are currently the longest shot to win the Super Bowl. The quarterback position is still in doubt heading into the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen battling for the top spot as Miami closer last season with three consecutive losses to finish 7-9. Miami struggled in the preseason by posting a 1-3 SU/ATS record, which included allowing 26, 27, and 27 points in the three losses. The lone victory came in Atlanta as the Dolphins are riding a 7-1 run to the OVER in the past eight exhibition contests.

    Titans at Eagles (-3, 37) - 7:30 PM EST

    Tennessee

    Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill, Logan Woodside

    Tennessee finished one victory shy of the playoffs last season after losing in Week 17 to Indianapolis at home. The Titans look for a return to the postseason for the first time since 2017 as long as quarterback Marcus Mariota is healthy as Tennessee pulled out home underdog wins over the Texans, Eagles, and Patriots in 2018. Tennessee was a solid preseason fade last season by posting an 0-4 SU/ATS mark, while every loss came by double-digits, including a 31-17 setback at Green Bay in the opener.

    Philadelphia
    Head Coach: Doug Pederson (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS in season)
    Quarterback Rotation: Carson Wentz, Nate Sudfeld, Clayton Thorson, Cody Kessler

    Carson Wentz doesn't have to worry about looking over his shoulder (as long as he stays healthy) as the Eagles' quarterback enters his fourth season under center. Philadelphia is coming off consecutive playoff appearances, including the Super Bowl title back in 2017 as the Eagles closed 2018 on a 5-1 run to clinch a Wild Card berth. The Eagles struggled in the preseason last August by compiling a 1-3 SU/ATS mark, which included a 31-14 setback in the opener against the Steelers. Philadelphia is hooking up with Tennessee in the preseason for the first time since 2001 when the Eagles grabbed a 20-14 victory in Nashville.

    Jaguars at Ravens (-3, 37) - 7:30 PM EST

    Jacksonville

    Head Coach: Doug Marrone (8-9 SU, 7-8-2 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Tanner Lee, Gardner Minshew, Alex McGough

    The Jaguars have finally moved on from the Blake Bortles era as Jacksonville inked free agent Nick Foles a huge contract and hope he can bring his magic that helped the Eagles win the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Jacksonville was on the doorstep of the Super Bowl in 2017 before losing to New England, as the Jaguars took a huge step back in 2018 by finishing 5-11 following a 3-1 start. The Jaguars put together a solid preseason campaign at 3-1 SU/ATS, but lost the opener at home to the Saints, 24-20. Jacksonville has compiled an impressive 5-1 ATS mark as a preseason underdog dating back to 2016.

    Baltimore
    Head Coach: John Harbaugh (33-12 SU, 30-14-1 ATS in season)
    Quarterback Rotation: Lamar Jackson, Robert Griffin III, Trace McSorley (Rookie)

    The Ravens ran all the way to the playoffs under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson last season following Joe Flacco's injury. Jackson led Baltimore to a 6-1 record down the stretch and a division title, although the Ravens lost at home in the Wild Card round to the Chargers. Baltimore has been the most reliable preseason bet the last few seasons by going 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS in 2018, while winning 13 consecutive exhibition contests dating back to 2016. The Ravens are riding a seven-game winning streak in preseason openers, while facing Jacksonville in exhibition play for the first time since a 48-17 rout of the Jaguars back in 2012.

    Texans at Packers (-2, 36) - 8:00 PM EST

    Houston

    Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Deshaun Watson, AJ McCarron, Joe Webb

    The Texans captured their third AFC South title in the past four seasons, but for the second time in this span, Houston was blown out at home in the Wild Card round. Houston overcame an 0-3 hole to win nine consecutive games and finish with its best record since going 12-4 back in 2012. The Texans have fared well in the preseason under Bill O'Brien by winning eight of the last 11 exhibition games, including a 3-1 mark in 2018. For the seventh straight campaign, the Texans begin the preseason on the road as Houston owns a 4-2 record in its past six exhibition openers.

    Green Bay
    Head Coach: Matt LeFleur (1st season)
    Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle, Manny Wilkins (Rookie)

    The Packers suffered through a 6-10 campaign in 2018 as Green Bay never won consecutive games. Matt LeFleur makes his preseason coaching debut for Green Bay, as the Packers have excelled the last few preseasons by posting a 9-4 mark. What's even more impressive is the seven-game preseason winning streak at Lambeau Field in this stretch since 2015, while the Packers have captured their past four exhibition opening games.

    Panthers at Bears (-3, 37) - 8:00 PM EST

    Carolina

    Head Coach: Ron Rivera (18-14 SU, 17-14-1 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier (Rookie)

    The Panthers jumped out to a 6-2 start in 2018 prior to a dreadful 1-7 finish in the second half of the season to miss the playoffs. Quarterback Cam Newton is coming off shoulder surgery in the offseason as will not play in Thursday's contest. The Panthers won three of four preseason contests in 2018, including the opener as a three-point underdog at Buffalo, 28-23. Carolina last faced Chicago in the preseason back in the 2013 opener in Charlotte as the Panthers pulled off a 24-17 victory.

    Chicago
    Head Coach: Matt Nagy (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Mitchell Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray

    The Bears are coming off their first NFC North title since 2010 after going 12-4 last season. Chicago lost in the Wild Card round to Philadelphia, 16-15, but Mitchell Trubisky put together a Pro Bowl season by throwing for 3,223 yards and 24 touchdowns. Four of Chicago's five losses came by three points or less, while putting together a 9-1 ATS mark in its final 10 regular season games. The preseason didn't mean much for Chicago last season as the Bears went 2-3 SU/ATS, while finishing OVER the total in the final four exhibition games.

    Chargers at Cardinals (-2, 36) - 10:00 PM EST

    Los Angele
    s
    Head Coach: Anthony Lynn (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, Cardale Jones, Easton Stick (Rookie)

    Los Angeles overcame an early 1-2 start to post a 12-4 record and reach the divisional playoffs in the AFC. The Chargers are without running back Melvin Gordon, who is trying to work out a contract dispute. The most damage done by the Lightning Bolts came on the road by winning seven of eight games away from Carson, while covering in all seven wins. Los Angeles has slumped to a 4-8 record the last three preseasons, while losing the exhibition opener each time since 2016. Last season's preseason opener took place in Arizona as the Chargers lost to the Cardinals, 24-17.

    Arizona
    Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (First season)
    Quarterback Rotation: Kyler Murray (Rookie), Brett Hundley, Chad Kanoff, Drew Anderson (Rookie)

    The Cardinals suffered through their worst season since 2000 by winning only three games, which included two close victories over the 49ers. Arizona drafted Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray with the top pick in the draft and are hoping he can be the next franchise quarterback in the desert. With a brand new head coach, quarterback, and system, it's hard to put much stock in last year's results as Arizona went 3-1 SU/ATS in the preseason. However, the Cardinals have lost four of their last five preseason meetings with the Chargers since 2013.

    Broncos at Seahawks (-1, 36) - 10:00 PM EST

    Denver

    Head Coach: Vic Fangio (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Drew Lock (Rookie), Kevin Hogan, Brett Rypien (Rookie)

    The Broncos rallied past the Falcons, 14-10 to capture the Hall of Fame game last Thursday in spite of racking up 188 yards of offense. Joe Flacco is expected to see his first action of the preseason for Denver as the Broncos won each of their two preseason road games in 2018. Denver hasn't hooked up with Seattle in the preseason since the 2015 opener which was won by the Broncos, 22-20 as a 4 ˝-point road underdog.

    Seattle
    Head Coach: Pete Carroll (32-21 SU, 35-17-1 ATS in preseason)
    Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Paxton Lynch, Geno Smith

    The Seahawks won six of their final seven games to squeeze into the playoffs as a Wild Card participant, but Seattle lost by two to Dallas, marking their fifth defeat of five points or less in 2018. From 2012 through 2017, Seattle put together an impressive 19-5 SU/ATS preseason record, but things went sideways for the Seahawks in the 2018 preseason as they compiled an 0-4 mark, while covering only once.

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    Hot & Not Report - Week 1
    Matt Blunt

    Week of August 5th

    The month of August means that football is nearly here, and with the HOF game having already come and gone – one that was tough to take for Atlanta bettors – we are at the point where we get a full slate of preseason games later this week.

    Preseason NFL betting can be a gold mine to your bankroll if you stay on top of current roster news, what coaches say in press conferences regarding playing time for guys, and understanding which teams/coaches put more of an emphasis on the W/L result in these games then others.

    In general terms rookie head coaches do tend to have a bit more to prove in terms of win/loss results this time of year as they'd prefer to get that first win out of the way even if it is a game that doesn't count. At the same time, it's these rookie head coaches who can spend most of the time in the preseason learning on the fly to the intricacies of the game in terms of things that are easy to over look. Whether it be finding a ref near by prior to calling a time out, having the final say in the decision making process, or any of those other little things that come with being a head coach, you can find them costing these teams yards/points and ultimately a wager should they learn those important lessons the hard way.

    Furthermore, preseason NFL football is one where market moves are are not shy about being bashful, as they come in a hurry and can pack some major swings with them as well. Larger moves do tend to deal with how information comes out regarding playing time for key guys on teams, and just like mainstream media members reporting on trades or free agency signings, everyone wants to be first in order to grab a piece of what they perceive to be the best number. Generally speaking, early moves are solid to follow as long as the number doesn't get out of hand, but 'middling' games is another practice that will have more success in the preseason as opposed to any other time of the year.

    “Middling” is betting Team A at a pick'em and then taking Team B at +3.5 after a substantial line move and having the game land on a 3-point or less win for Team A.

    So it's not like there isn't plenty of potential for profit this preseason no matter how many different approaches you end up taking. However, for this opening week that's a full slate of games, there are a few organizational angles that need to be considered as well.

    Who's Hot

    Looking for ATS wins in Game 1 of the Preseason? Lean on the NFC North Division

    Detroit 5-1 ATS last six years; Green Bay 4-0 ATS last four years; Minnesota 5-0 ATS last five years


    On the one hand there is always the argument to be made that what the Packers team from the 2016 season did in their opening preseason game of that year has little to no bearing on what the 2019 version of the team will do. And while that is true, that's not to say it's the only truth out there as all three of those franchises listed above have made in a point to start the preseason off on the right foot.

    Whether that goes to early talent evaluation in trying to build depth on their teams – remember the first preseason game only sees projected starters get a few drives or maybe a quarter – or backup QB's trying to make the most of the extended playing time they see – Detroit and Green Bay backups have known during these runs that they won't supplant the incumbent starter during the year – the Lions, Packers and Vikings have all been consistent money earners during their first preseason game.

    Interestingly enough, for their 2019 openers, two of those three teams (Minnesota, Detroit) have already seen line moves in their favor against projected Super Bowl contenders in New Orleans and New England as those moves likely speak to past history by those NFC North clubs as well as their opponents having two 40-year old starting QB's that aren't likely to see much of the field. Both the Vikings and Lions are underdogs as well, so taking these teams with strong Week 1 histories at a plus-money price is never really a bad option.

    Packers fans have already seen their line move against them a full point (from -3 to -2) as that's likely to do with another veteran QB in Aaron Rodgers seeing extremely limited playing time. It's them and the Lions that are at home this week too, which never hurts, and given Rodgers injury issues in recent years, asking the likes of DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle and Manny Wilkins to show out for a Packer win isn't a big ask.

    So look for at least two of these three NFC North teams to bring home winning tickets this weekend, especially given the specific scenarios all three are facing this week.

    Who's Not

    Want to avoid opening game ATS losers? Better stay away from the LA teams

    LA Chargers 0-3 ATS last three years in Game 1; LA Rams 1-6 ATS last seven years in Game 1


    Now this warning to stay away from the LA teams is not a complete shot at the city considering both the Chargers and Rams are relatively new tenants in the City of Angels, but for all the glitz and glamour LA typically has for openers and premiers, that memo has not gotten to these two football teams the past few seasons.

    And as luck would have it, we are probably late to the party in terms of fading these two LA squads this week, as both the Chargers (vs Arizona) and Rams (vs Oakland) have already seen lines move against them with both of them lining up on the visitor sidelines this week. Considering the regular season prospects for both LA teams (potential Super Bowl contenders) vs their two opponents this week in the preseason (likely cellar dwellers and high draft selections coming their way next spring) these two games are great reference examples for those bettors who prefer to stay away from preseason action.

    That's because all summer guys do work on what the long-term prospects are for clubs in December and January, and to see them both catching points, and more points as they days go on with the Rams going from +3 to +5.5 vs Oakland, you can understand the tough mental hurdle it is for some to follow line moves like that.

    However, at the same time it's easy to get on board with following these moves (although it's a rather bad number with Oakland right now) given the scenarios these two games present.

    The Rams were in the Super Bowl last year and understand how long and grinding the season can be when there are much bigger and better tasting fish to fry in January and beyond. There is little reason for them to do anything but operate under a vanilla gameplan that aids in their own talent evaluation against an Oakland team that is looking to take that next step in terms of wins this year.

    The Chargers have their own Super Bowl aspirations this year after making a solid run at it in 2018, and up against an Arizona team that's got a rookie HC who was a questionable hire in the eyes of many, and a #1 overall draft choice at QB as the new face of the franchise, the Cardinals would love to see 2019 start on a positive note.

    It's the situational aspects that play a much bigger role in preseason betting from a personnel and scenario standpoint that gives you these lines that would be completely absurd were it a regular season game, but fully understanding the difference between the two and being on top of the wire of information will always help you start your NFL betting year on a strong note if you can earn a few units in the preseason.

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