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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thur., Aug.1 - Sat., Aug.3)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thur., Aug.1 - Sat., Aug.3)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, August 1 - Saturday, August 3

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Betting Recap - Week 7
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    This Week


    -- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 7
    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 7
    -- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 7
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 7
    -- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 7

    Year To Date

    -- Favorites are 19-8 SU overall
    -- Underdogs are 14-13 ATS overall
    -- Home teams are 17-10 SU overall
    -- Home teams are 15-12 ATS overall
    -- The 'Under' is 15-11 overall

    Analysis

    BC Lions (1-6)
    was paddled at home by Saskatchewan (3-3) in the second end of a home-and-home, losing 45-18 in Vancouver on Saturday night. The Roughriders are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games against the Lions, and 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS against everyone else. The over is 2-0 against BC, while the under is also 3-1 in the Riders four games against everyone else.

    Calgary (4-2) eeked out a 17-16 road victory against Ottawa (2-4), which was no surprise considering these teams usually are involved in very close battles. Calgary avenged a Week 1 setback at home against Ottawa. The Stamps are winners of four of the past five, but they're just 1-5 ATS so far this season. Total bettors are also enjoying the Stamps at the window, as the under has hit in four in a row.

    For the RedBlacks, their cover snapped an 0-4 ATS skid. After the over went 2-0 in the first two games, the under has now connected in three of their past four. Ottawa averaged 38.0 PPG in their first two games on offense, but they're mustering a meager 12.5 PPG across their four-game skid.

    Edmonton (4-2) added to the woes of Toronto (0-6), as the Eskimos froze out the Argonauts by a 26-0 score. The Eskimos have alternated covers and non-covers in each of their first six outings. The under has been very consistent, which you'd expect with the CFL's No. 1 defense, going 4-0 in the past four outings.

    As far as the Argos are concerned, they hit a new low with their goose egg in Week 7. They have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their first six games, and they easily are last in the CFL in offense. The Argos entered 2-1 ATS in the past three, but slipped to 2-4 ATS overall on the season.

    Last, but certainly not least, Hamilton (5-1) defended 'The Hammer' in a CFL showcase game against Winnipeg (5-1), handing the Bombers their first L of the season, 23-15. The Ti-Cats were well rested, coming off the bye, yet they entered as two-point 'dogs at home. The Tabbies did what they do best, using QB Jeremiah Masoli and the passing attack to thwart yet another opponent. The Ti-Cats are now 5-1 ATS while the 'under' has hit in four of six outings.

    For the Bombers, they also failed to cover for the first time this season, falling to 5-1 SU/ATS. The under has connected in two in a row, and four of the past five overall.

    Montreal (3-2) returns in Week 8 after their bye, looking to improve upon their 4-1 ATS mark.

    Team Betting Notes

    -- The Blue Bombers look to shake off their first loss and take out their aggressions on the poor winless Argos. Expect the Bombers to be double-digit favorites on the road. They're 12-3 ATS in the past 15 following an ATS loss, and 22-9 ATS in the past 31 road contests. On the flip side, the Argos are 2-8 ATS in the past 10 overall, and 0-5 ATS in the past five against winning teams. Winnipeg has covered seven consecutive meetings, too, and the over is 7-0 in each of those outings, while going 6-1 in the past seven battles in Toronto.

    -- The Ti-Cats look to cool off the Roughriders, who are 2-0 SU/ATS in the past two, albeit against the lowly Lions. The Tabbies have covered five of the past six overall, but they're 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven appearances on a Thursday. The Riders are 4-1 ATS in the past five, but they're 1-6 ATS in the past seven played in Week 8. Hamilton has an awful 4-17-1 ATS mark in the past 22 trips to Regina, while going 11-28-1 ATS in the past 40 meetings in this series. The under is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the past five in Saskatchewan.

    -- The RedBlacks are just 1-4 ATS in the past five overall, although they're 26-11 ATS in the past 37 on the road. The Argos are 13-3 ATS in the past 16 games overall, 5-0 ATS in the past five at home and 8-1 ATS in the past nine against teams from the East. However, in this series, Ottawa has covered 10 of the past 14, while the RedBlacks are 6-0 ATS in the past six trips to Montreal. The under has connected in seven straight in Montreal, and seven of the past eight meetings overall.

    -- The Esks and Stamps square off in the Battle of Alberta. Edmonton enters 9-4 ATS in the past 13 against teams with a winning overall mark, but they're just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road. Calgary has cashed in just one of their six games this season, and they're 5-12 ATS in the past 17 against the West. The under has been the rule for both teams, going 4-0 in Edmonton's past four overall, while going 7-1-1 in the past nine road outings. The under has hit in four straight for Calgary, while going 5-0 in their past five against winning teams. The Eskimos have covered in five straight meetings.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-08-2019 at 09:55 AM.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 8
    David Schwab

    Week 7 Betting Recap

    The Calgary Stampeders started last week’s CFL schedule of games with a tight 17-16 road win against Ottawa closing as six-point favorites. In the second of two Thursday night tilts, Edmonton kept Toronto winless on the year with a 26-0 shutout as an 11-point home favorite.

    Friday night’s inter-division clash between Winnipeg and Hamilton ended with the Tiger-Cats pulling off a 23-15 upset as slight two-point home underdogs. Saskatchewan closed out Week 7 on Saturday night with a 45-18 rout against British Columbia in a game that closed as a PICK to sweep that West Division home-and-home series.

    Thursday, Aug. 1

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS)
    Point-spread: Winnipeg -14
    Total: 48 ½


    Game Overview

    The Blue Bombers lost for the first time this season both straight-up and against the spread. It was also the first time this offense failed to score at least 28 points. Winnipeg is averaging 30.7 points per game while holding opposing teams to just 17.2 points. Matt Nichols threw for 261 yards and one touchdown while completing a pass to eight different players in Friday’s loss to Hamilton. However, he was also picked off three times. The Blue Bombers were held to 63 yards rushing on 12 carries.

    Toronto is still looking for its first SU victory of the season behind an offense that is scoring an average of just 12.5 PPG. The Argonauts’ defense has allowed a combined total of 214 points in those six losses. Mcleod Bethel-Thompson gave way to Dakota Prukop at quarterback in the team’s latest loss. Prukop put the ball up 13 times against Edmonton and he completed eight passes for 68 yards. The two players combined to throw three interceptions. Running back Branden Burks averaged 4.7 yards a carry on nine rushing attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Winnipeg has won six of the last seven meetings SU in this inter-division matchup and it has covered ATS in the last five games. The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven meetings in Toronto.

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS)
    Point-spread: Saskatchewan -3
    Total: 50 ½


    Game Overview

    The Tiger-Cats will be without quarterback Jeremiah Masoli for Thursday night. He left last week’s game against Winnipeg late in the first quarter with a season-ending knee injury. Dane Evans took his place and completed 13-of-25 passing attempts for 94 yards. Five different players ran the ball in that game for 82 yards and two scores on 17 rushing attempts. The Tiger-Cats have scored an average of 35 PPG which is the highest total in the CFL. Their defense has only allowed an average of 19.2 PPG.

    The Roughriders’ two-game sweep over BC both SU and ATS has them just two games off the pace in the West Division standings. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games with the total going OVER in three of those contests. Cody Fajardo played one of his better games of the season with 169 yards passing and another 46 yards running the ball. He completed an efficient 21-of-26 passing attempts while averaging 6.6 yards a carry on the ground. William Powell led the rushing attack in Saturday’s lopsided win with 146 total running yards and three scores on 21 carries.

    Betting Trends

    -- Saskatchewan has won 17 of its last 19 home games against Hamilton SU and it has covered ATS in six of the last seven meetings at Mosaic Stadium. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of the last 11 meetings overall.


    Friday, Aug. 2

    Ottawa RedBlacks (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS)
    Point-spread: Montreal -7
    Total: 53


    Game Overview

    Ottawa’s current four-game losing streak SU includes a 36-19 loss to Montreal on July 13 as a nine-point home favorite. The total went OVER 51 ½ points in that game, but it has stayed UNDER in the other three losses. Jonathon Jennings made his second-straight start at quarterback for an injured Dominique Davis. He did complete 83.3 percent of his 18 passing attempts in the loss to Calgary, but he only gained 125 yards through the air with one touchdown pass and two interceptions.

    The Alouettes went into last week’s bye with a SU three-game winning streak while closing as underdogs in all three contests. They were 13 ½-point underdogs against Hamilton at home on July 4 and 5 ½-point home underdogs against Edmonton in Week 6. Vernon Adams Jr. has taken the majority of the snaps at quarterback and he has thrown for 1,027 yards and five touchdowns against two interceptions.

    Betting Trends

    -- Ottawa has won its last five road games against Montreal both SU and ATS. It has a 10-3 SU edge in the last 13 meetings overall and the total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium.


    Saturday, Aug. 3

    Edmonton Eskimos (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS)
    Point-spread: Edmonton -1
    Total: 48


    Game Overview

    The total stayed UNDER 52 points in Thursday’s shutout against Toronto and it has stayed UNDER in the Eskimos’ last four games. They are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road this season with the total staying UNDER in all three contests. Trevor Harris completed 27-of-39 passing attempts for 298 yards his last time out. He is currently ranked first in the CFL in total passing yards (1,931) and he has tossed eight touchdowns against two interceptions. Shaquille Cooper had a big night running the ball against Toronto with 128 yards and a score on 22 rushing attempts.

    Calgary has quietly moved itself to just one game off the pace in the West Division standings with back-to-back wins against Toronto at home and Ottawa on the road. It has failed to cover the closing spread in its last three games and the total has stayed UNDER the closing line in its last four contests. Nick Arbuckle has played well at quarterback in place of an injured Bo Levi Mitchell. He has thrown for 1,284 yards and five touchdowns while completing 73.9 percent of his 138 passing attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has gone 18-5 SU in its last 23 games against Edmonton, but the Eskimos have covered ATS in the last five meetings. The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine matchups in this heated West Division rivalry.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-08-2019 at 09:56 AM.

  4. #4
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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 8


    Thursday, August 1

    Winnipeg @ Toronto

    Game 689-690
    August 1, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Winnipeg
    122.311
    Toronto
    96.665
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 25 1/2
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 14
    48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (-14); Under

    Hamilton @ Saskatchewan


    Game 691-692
    August 1, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hamilton
    119.938
    Saskatchewan
    106.463
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hamilton
    by 13 1/2
    50
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Saskatchewan
    by 3
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Hamilton
    (+3); Under


    Friday, August 2

    Ottawa @ Montreal


    Game 693-694
    August 2, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    110.030
    Montreal
    111.549
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Montreal
    by 1 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Montreal
    by 7 1/2
    53
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (+7 1/2); Under


    Saturday, August 3

    Edmonton @ Calgary


    Game 695-696
    August 3, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Edmonton
    122.453
    Calgary
    108.450
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 14
    35
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 1
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-1); Under





    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 8


    Thursday, August 1

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    WINNIPEG (5 - 1) at TORONTO (0 - 6) - 8/1/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WINNIPEG is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    TORONTO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 5-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 4-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HAMILTON (5 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (3 - 3) - 8/1/2019, 9:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 128-95 ATS (+23.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, August 2

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    OTTAWA (2 - 4) at MONTREAL (3 - 2) - 8/2/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    MONTREAL is 51-81 ATS (-38.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 4-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 5-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, August 3

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    EDMONTON (4 - 2) at CALGARY (4 - 2) - 8/3/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in August games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    EDMONTON is 5-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 4-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    CFL

    Week 8


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, August 1

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
    Winnipeg is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Winnipeg is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
    Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
    Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Hamilton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games
    Hamilton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 5 games on the road
    Hamilton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Hamilton's last 11 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Saskatchewan is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
    Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games at home
    Saskatchewan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Saskatchewan's last 11 games when playing Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton


    Friday, August 2

    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Ottawa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    Ottawa is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games on the road
    Ottawa is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Montreal
    Ottawa is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing Montreal
    Ottawa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
    Montreal is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    Montreal is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games
    Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Montreal is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home
    Montreal is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Ottawa
    Montreal is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Montreal's last 8 games when playing Ottawa
    Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa


    Saturday, August 3

    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
    Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Edmonton is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Edmonton's last 8 games on the road
    Edmonton is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
    Edmonton is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games when playing Calgary
    Edmonton is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
    Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Calgary is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    Calgary is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Calgary's last 9 games when playing Edmonton
    Calgary is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Edmonton


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-08-2019 at 09:57 AM.

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