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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thur., July 25 -Sat., July 27)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thur., July 25 -Sat., July 27)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 25 - Saturday, July 27

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Season Betting Trends

    Favorites: 16-7 SU, 11-12 ATS
    Home teams: 15-8 SU, 13-10 ATS
    Over/Under: 11-12
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-24-2019 at 11:55 AM.

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    Betting Recap - Week 6
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    This Week


    -- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 6
    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 6
    -- Home teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 6
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 6
    -- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 6

    Year To Date

    -- Favorites are 16-7 SU overall
    -- Underdogs are 12-11 ATS overall
    -- Home teams are 15-8 SU overall
    -- Home teams are 12-11 ATS overall
    -- The 'Under' is 12-10 overall

    Analysis

    BC Lions (1-5)
    saw their woes continue, falling 38-25 on the road against Saskatchewan (2-3). The Lions are also a dismal 1-5 ATS, covering only in Calgary back in Week 3 as 10 1/2-point underdogs. As single-digit 'dogs, the Lions are 0-3 ATS and they also failed to cover their only pick 'em and only game as a favorite.

    For the Roughriders, they picked up their eighth cover in the past 10 meetings with the Lions. The Lions are also 1-5 ATS across the past six road games, and they fell to 2-10 ATS in the past 12 against losing teams.

    Calgary (3-2) failed to cover for the fourth time in five outings this season, but they were able to avoid the upset bug against lowly Toronto (0-5). The Argos picked up their second cover of the season, although they scored 17 or fewer points for the fourth time in five contests. The 'under' has connected in three of the past four for Toronto. The under is also a perfect 3-0 in the past three for the Stamps after the over hit in the first two outings.

    Montreal (3-2) continues to trend in the right direction. After opening the season 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS, they have won and covered three in a row. Defense has been a major part of their turnaround, as they allowed 73 total points in the two losses, and an average of 19.3 PPG in their past three wins.

    The win for the Alouettes came at the expense of Edmonton (3-2), who have now dropped two of the past three after opening 2-0 SU. The Esks are now 3-9 ATS in the past 12 during Week 6, for whatever reason. Montreal is also a perfect 8-0 ATS across their past eight games played on a Saturday, while going 8-1 ATS in the past nine against winning teams. The Esks also saw their five-game cover streak in Montreal snapped.

    Winnipeg (5-0) had their most dominant showing to date, emasculating Ottawa (2-3) by a 31-1 score. The RedBlacks opened 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS, but they have now dropped three straight while failing to cover four in a row, including 0-2 SU/ATS against the Bombers. Ottawa has been outscored 60-15 in the two meetings so far.

    Hamilton (4-1) returns in Week 7 after their bye, looking to improve upon their 4-1 ATS mark.

    Team Betting Notes

    -- The Stampeders travel to Canada's capital city looking to keep the RedBlacks down. Calgary loves Week 7, as they're 8-0 ATS in their past seven during the week. The RedBlacks are 0-4 ATS in the past four games, and 1-5 ATS in the past six in the month of July. The under is 5-0 in Calgary's past five, and 5-1 in the past six in the month of July for the Stamps. The under is 10-2 in Ottawa's past 12 July outings. However, the over is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings in Ottawa, and 7-3-1 in the past 11 in this series overall.

    -- The Argos search for their first win on the road against the Esks on Friday night. Toronto is just 7-20 ATS in the past 27 games on the road, and 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall. They have also failed to cover the past four overall. The over is 5-1 in Toronto's past six against winning teams, while the over is 5-2 in Edmonton's past seven at home. The Argos have covered four in a row in this series, while the over is 10-3 in the past 13 meetings overall, and 5-1 in the past six in Edmonton.

    -- The Blue Bombers have covered 22 of the past 30 games on the road, and they're also 22-8 ATS in the past 30 against winning teams. The Tiger-Cats have managed to cover four of the past five overall, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four at Tim Horton's Stadium in 'The Hammer'. However, the Tabbies are 1-7-1 ATS in the past nine games in the month of July. In this series, the under is 16-5 in the past 21 meetings, and 20-6 in the past 26 in Hamilton. The under is 6-0 in Winnipeg's past six against winning teams and 45-19 in the past 64 at home for the Ti-Cats.

    -- The Roughriders and Lions play the back end of a home-and-home series, this time in Vancouver. The Riders are 2-6 ATS in the past eight in Week 7. They're 8-3 ATS in the past 11 inside the Western Conference, however. For the Lions, they're 2-10 ATS in the past 12 against losing teams, 1-8 ATS in the past nine overall and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home. Saskatchewan is also 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, but 1-3-1 ATS in the past five trips to BC. The under is 19-7 in the past 26 in Vancouver, and 41-19-1 in the past 61 in this series.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-30-2019 at 01:44 AM.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 7
    David Schwab

    Week 6 Betting Recap

    The home teams swept Week 6 in the CFL straight-up while going 3-1 against the spread. The run started Thursday night with Calgary’s 26-16 victory at home against Toronto, but the Stampeders could not cover as heavy 13 ½-point favorites. On Friday night, Winnipeg stayed perfect of the year both SU and ATS with a 31-1 rout over Ottawa as 11 ½-point home favorites.

    Saturday’s action started with Montreal pulling off its third-straight upset with a 20-10 victory against Edmonton closing as six-point underdogs at home. Later that night, Saskatchewan raced past British Columbia 38-25 as a six-point favorite in the first meeting in that home-and-home series.

    Thursday, July 25

    Calgary Stampeders (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS)
    Point-spread: Calgary -5
    Total: 51 ½


    Game Overview

    Calgary remains two games back in the West Division standings as the defending champ. The total stayed UNDER 52 points in last week’s win against Toronto and it has remained UNDER in the Stampeders’ last three games.

    Nick Arbuckle continues to get the start at quarterback and he has thrown for 914 yards and five touchdowns in four games. He had two touchdown passes against Toronto, but he was also picked off twice. Juwan Brescacin caught five passes for 64 yards and both of those touchdowns.

    Ottawa’ losing streak reached three games with Friday’s setback. It has failed to cover the closing spread in its last four games. The RedBlacks went with Jonathon Jennings at quarterback for the injured Dominique Davis and he struggled with just 45 yards passing while going 6-for-15.

    Will Arndt could not do much better with four completions on 13 attempts for 57 yards. The lone bright spot in one of Ottawa’s most dismal showings in franchise history was John Crockett’s 88 yards rushing on 15 carries.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has a 4-1-1 SU record against Ottawa through the last six meetings. The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 11 meetings overall and in four of the last five matchups played at TD Place Stadium.

    Toronto Argonauts (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS)
    Point-spread: Edmonton -10 ½
    Total: 53


    Game Overview

    The Argonauts have lost 14 of their last 15 games SU dating back to late August of last season. They have failed to cover in 11 of those games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of five games this year.

    Mcleod Bethel-Thompson continues to get the start at quarterback and he continues to put up some big numbers despite the 0-5 start. He completed 32-of-42 passes against Calgary for 343 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw four interceptions. He has thrown for 1,159 yards and seven scores in five games, but he leads the CFL with eight INT’s.

    Edmonton has fallen two games in back of Winnipeg in the West with Saturday’s loss. The total stayed UNDER 54 in that game and it has stayed UNDER in the its last three games. The Eskimos have won their only two games at home this season SU with a 1-1 mark ATS.

    Trevor Harris completed 29-of-43 passing attempts against Montreal for 271 yards, but he could not get the offense into the end zone through the air. He also ran for 16 of Edmonton’s 49 total rushing yards.

    Betting Trends

    -- Edmonton has won five of the last seven meetings SU in this inter-division matchup, but Toronto holds a 4-1 edge in the last five games ATS. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings in Edmonton.


    Friday, July 26

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)
    Point-spread: Pick 'em
    Total: 55


    Game Overview

    The Blue Bombers continue to play extremely well on both sides of the ball. The offense is averaging 33.8 points per game complementing a defense that has only allowed a total of 80 points in its first five games. The total stayed UNDER 52 points against Ottawa and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last four contests.

    Matt Nichols completed an impressive 86.2 percent of his 29 passing attempts on Friday night for 295 yards and two touchdowns. This included a franchise-high 19 completions in a row.

    Hamilton is the class of the East Division behind the highest scoring offense in the CFL (37.4 PPG). Its defense has also played extremely well by holding opposing teams to an average of 20 points a game. Jeramiah Masoli has thrown for 1,517 yards and nine touchdowns in his first five games.

    His top target Brandon Banks leads the CFL in receiving yards with 506 on 36 receptions. He has caught three balls for touchdowns. The Tiger-Cats are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year with the total staying UNDER in all three games.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Blue Bombers have the SU 4-2 edge in the last six meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last five matchups. It has also stayed UNDER in 11 of the last 12 meetings in Hamilton.


    Saturday, July 27

    Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) at British Columbia (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS)
    Point-spread: Saskatchewan 3 ½

    Total: 52

    Game Overview

    The Roughriders needed three consecutive touchdown drives in the second half of the series opener to get past BC. They also got a huge boost from Marcus Thigpen’s 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown near the end of the second quarter.

    Cody Fajardo ended the game with 278 yards passing and two touchdown throws while completing 17 of his 23 passing attempts. He also led the team in rushing with 53 yards and a score on eight carries. Shaquelle Evans caught five passes for 158 yards and one of the two scores through the air.

    The total went OVER 50 points in Saturday’s loss and it has gone OVER in four of the Lions’ first six games. Their defense has allowed an average of 32.7 points in those first six games. It has given up at least 30 points in five of those contests.

    Mike Reilly put up some big numbers on Saturday with 346 yards passing while completing 77.5 percent of his 40 attempts and BC added another 122 yards running the ball.

    Betting Trends

    -- With Saturday’s win, Saskatchewan improved to 4-1 both SU and ATS in its last five games against the Lions. BC still has the 4-1 edge SU and ATS in its last five home games of this West Division tilt. The total has stayed UNDER in 14 of the last 18 meetings at BC Place Stadium.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-30-2019 at 01:45 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 7


    Thursday, July 25

    Calgary @ Ottawa

    Game 681-682
    July 25, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    116.128
    Ottawa
    105.596
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 10 1/2
    58
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 5
    50
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-5); Over

    Toronto @ Edmonton


    Game 683-684
    July 25, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    97.278
    Edmonton
    115.283
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 18
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 11 1/2
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-11 1/2); Under


    Friday, July 26

    Winnipeg @ Hamilton


    Game 685-686
    July 26, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Winnipeg
    124.524
    Hamilton
    120.011
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 4 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 1 1/2
    53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (-1 1/2); Over


    Saturday July, 27

    Saskatchewan @ BC Lions


    Game 687-688
    July 27, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Saskatchewan
    112.165
    BC Lions
    112.974
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    BC Lions
    by 1
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Saskatchewan
    by 3
    52
    Dunkel Pick:
    BC Lions
    (+3); Over





    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 7


    Thursday, July 25

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CALGARY (3 - 2) at OTTAWA (2 - 3) - 7/25/2019, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 3-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TORONTO (0 - 5) at EDMONTON (3 - 2) - 7/25/2019, 9:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 4-0 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 2-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, July 26

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WINNIPEG (5 - 0) at HAMILTON (4 - 1) - 7/26/2019, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HAMILTON is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    HAMILTON is 2-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, July 27

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SASKATCHEWAN (2 - 3) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 5) - 7/27/2019, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    CFL

    Week 7


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, July 25

    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Calgary is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 9 games
    Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
    Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Calgary's last 11 games when playing Ottawa
    Calgary is 1-2-2 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    Ottawa is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 7 games at home
    Ottawa is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 11 games when playing Calgary
    Ottawa is 2-2-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary

    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
    Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
    Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 13 games when playing Edmonton
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Edmonton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Edmonton is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games at home
    Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Edmonton is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Edmonton's last 13 games when playing Toronto
    Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto


    Friday, July 26

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Winnipeg is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Hamilton
    Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
    Winnipeg is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 12 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Hamilton's last 16 games
    Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games at home
    Hamilton is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
    Hamilton is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Winnipeg
    Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Hamilton's last 12 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


    Saturday, July 27

    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games on the road
    Saskatchewan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia
    Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Saskatchewan's last 24 games when playing British Columbia
    Saskatchewan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Saskatchewan's last 18 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
    British Columbia is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 7 games
    British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
    British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 17 of British Columbia's last 24 games when playing Saskatchewan
    British Columbia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
    British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of British Columbia's last 18 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-30-2019 at 01:47 AM.

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, July 25



    Calgary (3-2) @ Ottawa (2-3)— RedBlacks (+9) won 32-28 in Calgary June 15, outscoring Stampeders 11-0 in 4th quarter- they scored winning TD with 1:22 left, in sloppy game where Ottawa was -2 (5-3) in turnovers. Stamps are 4-1-1 in last six series games; they’re 1-1-2 SU in last four visits to nation’s capitol. Over is 7-3-1 in last 11 series games. Calgary allowed 30+ points in both their losses; they split couple road games. Under is 3-1 in their last four games. RedBlacks lost last three weeks, scoring 1-19-14 points- they scored 44-32 points in their only wins.

    Toronto (0-5) @ Edmonton (3-2)— Home side won nine of last ten series games, with Toronto covering last four; Argonauts lost last five visits to Edmonton (2-3 vs spread). Over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Four of winless Argos’ five losses are by 10+ points; their road losses are by 25-27-10 points. Three of their last four games stayed under. Eskimos scored 32+ points in all three of their wins, were held to 21-10 in losses. Last three Edmonton games stayed under the total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-30-2019 at 01:49 AM.

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, July 26


    Winnipeg (5-0) Hamilton (4-1)— Teams split last ten series games, with last seven staying under the total; under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, 20-6 in last 26 meetings played here. Bombers won/covered three of their last five visits to Hamilton. Unbeaten Winnipeg has only one win by less than 10 points; they won their two road games, 29-14/33-23 at Ottawa/Edmonton. Three of their last four games stayed under. TiCats won its three home games, scoring 31.3 ppg; all three of their home games this season stayed under.


    Saturday, July 27

    Saskatchewan (2-3) @ BC Lions (1-5)— Roughriders won/covered last four series games, thrashing BC 38-25 (-6) at home LW; Lions outgained Riders 468-379, but Saskatchewan ran a kick back for a TD right before halftime. Saskatchewan lost three of last four visits here; under is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Riders lost first two road games by total of 9 points back east; this is their first road game in a month. BC gave up 33+ points in all five of its losses; they’re 0-2 at home, losing 33-23/33-6 to Winnipeg/Edmonton.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-30-2019 at 01:50 AM.

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