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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., July 18 -Sat., July 20)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., July 18 -Sat., July 20)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 18 - Saturday, July 20

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Betting Recap - Week 5
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    This Week


    -- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 5
    -- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 5
    -- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 5
    -- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 5
    -- The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 5

    Year To Date

    -- Favorites are 13-6 SU overall
    -- Underdogs are 10-9 ATS overall
    -- Home teams are 11-8 SU overall
    -- Away teams are 10-9 ATS overall
    -- The 'Over' is 10-9 overall

    Analysis

    For the second consecutive week Montreal (2-2) picked up a huge victory as a big underdog, winning outright in Ottawa (2-2) by a 36-19 score as 8 1/2-point underdogs. They're 3-1 ATS this season, all as eight-point 'dogs or more. The 'over' has also connected in three of their four games overall.

    For the Red Blacks, they lost outright for the second consecutive weekend as home favorites, but this one was a lot more shocking than Week 4. The RedBlacks have now failed to cover in three straight outings. Defense has been the biggest issue for Ottawa, as they have allowed at least 28 points in all four of their games. The 'over' is 3-1 as a result. The RedBlacks are now just 2-7 ATS across the past nine against losing teams, too.

    Winnipeg (4-0) rolled up a 48-21 victory against Toronto (0-4) in a game which ended up about how everyone expected. Surprisingly, the Blue Bombers were 'just' a 15-point favorite, and they easily covered. In fact, Winnipeg had a 37-6 lead by halftime and put it on cruise control. The Bombers have scored 28 or more points in each of their four games, and they're a perfect 4-0 ATS overall.

    The Argonauts posted their highest point total of the season (21), but that still didn't make up for their awful defense. They have yielded 32 or more points in three of their four outings. They're 1-3 ATS overall.

    Edmonton (3-1) routed the BC Lions (1-4) by a 33-6 count, as the Eskimos improved to 3-5 ATS in the past eight after a bye week. The Esks are an impresive 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings against the Lions, however.

    Speaking of the Lions, their only win came on a single as time expired against hapless Toronto last week. They're 1-4 SU/ATS in five games overall, and it doesn't get any easier with a home-and-home on tap against Saskatchewan (1-3), a team with plenty of offense.

    In the marquee matchup of the weekend, Hamilton (4-1) handled their business against Calgary (2-2), who continues to adjust to life without QB Bo Levi Mitchell (pectoral). The Stampeders, normally strong against the number, have stumbled out to a 1-3 ATS start.

    The Tiger-Cats bounced back from a loss to the Alouettes last week, and are now 4-1 SU/ATS. For Hamilton, the under is now 3-0 in their three home games, and the over is 2-0 in two outings on the road.

    Team Betting Notes

    -- The Argos will travel to Calgary to meet an angry Stamps side on Thursday night in Southern Alberta. Toronto has failed to cover in seven of the past eight games overall, and they're 6-20 ATS in the past 26 on the road. The Stamps are 2-5 ATS in the past seven against losing teams, but 7-1 ATS in the past eight in this series. The under is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings in Calgary.

    -- The RedBlacks and Blue Bombers hook up in Winnipeg on Friday night, and the scoreboard operator better be ready for a lot of action. Ottawa has managed a 26-10 ATS mark across their past 36 road games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five overall. The Bombers are 5-0 ATS in the past five home games, and 37-18-1 ATS in the past 56 games overall. Winnipeg is also 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series.

    -- The Esks and Als hook up on Saturday afternoon in Montreal. Edmonton has covered in just one of their past five games on the road, and they're 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games played in Week 6. The Als are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their past seven games on a Saturday. They're also 7-1 ATS in the past eight against teams iwth a winning overall record, and 4-0 ATS in the past four home outings. However, the Esks have covered five straight trips to Montreal, and they're 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings overall in this series. The over is also 5-1-1 in the past seven battles in Montreal, and 12-3-1 in the past 16 meetings overall.

    -- The Lions limp into Regina to take on the Roughriders in a battle between two teams with a combined record of 2-7 SU. BC is 1-4 ATS in the past five road games, 2-9 ATS in the past 11 against losing sides and 1-7 ATS in the past eight overall. They're also 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the West Division. On the flip side, the Riders are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against the West, while going 12-5 ATS in the past 17 following a straight-up loss. They're 4-1 ATS in the past five after a bye, too. In this series, the under is 9-2-1 in the past 12 battles in Regina, and 41-18-1 in the past 60 in this series, too.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-18-2019 at 12:30 PM.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
    David Schwab

    Week 5 Betting Recap

    The Edmonton Eskimos kicked off Week 5 of the CFL regular season with last Thursday’s 33-6 rout over British Columbia closing as three-point road favorites. On Friday night, the Winnipeg Bombers remained perfect on the year both straight-up and against the spread after hammering Toronto 48-21 as heavy 15-point favorites at home.

    Saturday’s CFL doubleheader started with Montreal stunning the Ottawa RedBlacks 36-19 as nine-point road underdogs. Later that day, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats got past Calgary 30-23 as four-point favorites at home to hold onto first place in the East Division title race.

    Thursday, July 18

    Toronto Argonauts (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

    Point-spread:
    Total:

    Game Overview

    Toronto is still searching for its first victory of the season behind an offense that has only scored a grand total of 59 points in its first four games. The Argonauts’ defense has not been all that much better with a points-allowed average of 49.5. Mcleod Bethel-Thompson got the start at quarterback in Friday’s loss.

    He completed just 56.4 percent of his 39 passing attempts for 388 yards and three scores and he was also picked off twice. Toronto gained 65 yards running the ball on 14 attempts.

    The Stampeders fell to .500 with Saturday’s loss to Hamilton and two games off the pace in the West Division standings. Nick Arbuckle continues to fill in for an injured Bo Levi Mitchell at quarterback. He put up some big numbers against the Tiger-Cats with 368 yards passing while completing 24-of-40 passing attempts, but he could not get the offense into the end zone through the air. Calgary’s rushing attack was almost nonexistent with 27 yards on nine carries.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has won 10 of its last 11 games against Toronto SU and it has a 7-1 record ATS in the last eight meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six matchups in this inter-division clash.


    Friday, July 19

    Ottawa Roughriders (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

    Point-spread:
    Total:

    Game Overview

    Two weeks ago, Ottawa was on the wrong end of a 29-14 loss to Winnipeg closing as a three-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the 54-point closing line. Last week’s stunning loss to Montreal as a heavy home favorite went OVER 51 ½ points and the total has gone OVER in three of the RedBlacks’ first four games.

    That game was 9-9 at halftime before they were outscored by 17 points in the second half. Quarterback Dominique Davis scored a pair of touchdowns running the ball.

    The Blue Bombers’ strong start can be attributed to an offense that is averaging 34.5 points a game. They have also gotten some strong play from a defense that leads the CFL points allowed (19.8). They jumped out to a 21-0 lead against Toronto in the first quarter and cruised to their fourth win on the year.

    QB Matt Nichols bounced back from a Week 4 injury to throw for 209 yards and three touchdowns in Friday’s romp.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Blue Bombers have a 5-1 edge both SU and ATS in its last six games against Ottawa. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings overall and in six of the last nine meetings in Winnipeg.


    Saturday, July 20

    Edmonton Eskimos (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS at Montreal Alouettes (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

    Point-spread:
    Total:

    Game Overview

    Edmonton opened the season with a 32-25 victory over Montreal, but it could not cover as an eight-point favorite at home. The total went OVER 49 ½-point total line in that game. In Thursday’s 27-point win against BC, the Eskimos took a 16-3 lead into halftime. Trevor Harris went a highly efficient 22-for-28 throwing the ball for 276 passing yards and two scores. CJ Gable anchored the running game with 68 yards rushing on 19 carries.

    Following a SU 0-2 start, Montreal is coming off back-to-back upsets as a heavy underdog. It beat Hamilton 36-29 in Week 4 as a 13 ½-point underdog at home ahead of Saturday’s upset on the road against Ottawa. The Alouettes got a career day from Vernon Adams Jr. at quarterback with 327 yards passing and two scoring strikes. William Stanback had another strong outing running the ball with 100 yards on 18 carries.

    Betting Trends

    -- Including the win in Week 1, Edmonton is a perfect 5-0 SU in its last five games against Montreal. It also has a perfect 5-0 record SU and ATS in its last five road games in this inter-division tilt. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six matchups.

    British Columbia Lions (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
    Point-spread:
    Total:

    Game Overview

    High expectations have been met with a very disappointing performance in BC. The arrival of Mike Reilly at quarterback has failed to invigorate an offense that is averaging just 20.5 points per game. He was held to 157 yards passing in last Thursday’s loss to Edmonton with John White rushing for 53 yards on 11 attempts in the team’s 210 yards of total offense. The Lions’ defense has allowed an average of 31.6 points in five games.

    The Roughriders are coming off a Week 4 bye after losing to Calgary 37-10 the week before as five-point home favorites. The total stayed UNDER 51 ½ points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in three of their first four outings. Saturday will be the first meeting in a home-and-home series against BC. Cody Fajardo has gotten the call at quarterback for an injured Zach Collaros. He has thrown for 945 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Lions have a 7-3 edge both SU and ATS in this West Division matchup over the past 10 meetings. They have also won four of the last six meetings SU in Saskatchewan. The total stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 13 meetings at Mosaic Stadium.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-20-2019 at 01:43 AM.

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    CFL

    Week 6


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, July 18

    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    Toronto is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Calgary
    Toronto is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Calgary
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 8 games
    Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Calgary is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
    Calgary is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
    Calgary is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Toronto
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Calgary's last 12 games when playing at home against Toront


    Friday, July 19

    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Ottawa is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    Ottawa is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games on the road
    Ottawa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
    Ottawa is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 9 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
    Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Winnipeg is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games at home
    Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 9 games when playing at home against Ottawa


    Saturday, July 20

    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games
    Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Edmonton is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 7 games on the road
    Edmonton is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Montreal
    Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Montreal
    Edmonton is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Montreal is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games
    Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Montreal is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    Montreal is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Montreal's last 12 games at home
    Montreal is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Edmonton
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton

    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
    British Columbia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games
    British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    British Columbia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Saskatchewan
    British Columbia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 17 of British Columbia's last 23 games when playing Saskatchewan
    British Columbia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    British Columbia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of British Columbia's last 13 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games at home
    Saskatchewan is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing British Columbia
    Saskatchewan is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Saskatchewan's last 23 games when playing British Columbia
    Saskatchewan is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against British Columbia
    Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 13 games when playing at home against British Columbia


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-20-2019 at 01:45 AM.

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    This report will update.....



    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 6


    Thursday, July 18

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TORONTO (0 - 4) at CALGARY (2 - 2) - 7/18/2019, 9:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, July 19

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OTTAWA (2 - 2) at WINNIPEG (4 - 0) - 7/19/2019, 8:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 4-1 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 4-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, July 20

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    EDMONTON (3 - 1) at MONTREAL (2 - 2) - 7/20/2019, 4:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MONTREAL is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 5-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 4) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 3) - 7/20/2019, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-20-2019 at 01:46 AM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 6


    Thursday, July 18

    Toronto @ Calgary


    Game 689-690
    July 18, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    105.650
    Calgary
    113.646
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 8
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 11 1/2
    53
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (+11 1/2); Under


    Friday July 19

    Ottawa @ Winnipeg


    Game 691-692
    July 19, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    105.090
    Winnipeg
    121.630
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 13 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 9 1/2
    55
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (-9 1/2); Under


    Saturday, July 20

    Edmonton @ Montreal


    Game 693-694
    July 20, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Edmonton
    106.338
    Montreal
    109.743
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Montreal
    by 3 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 4 1/2
    54
    Dunkel Pick:
    Montreal
    (+4 1/2); Over

    BC Lions @ Saskatchewan


    Game 695-696
    July 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    BC Lions
    106.363
    Saskatchewan
    104.720
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    BC Lions
    by 1 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Saskatchewan
    by 3 1/2
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    BC Lions
    (+3 1/2); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-20-2019 at 01:46 AM.

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, July 18


    Toronto (0-4) @ Calgary (2-2)— Stampeders won nine of last ten series games, covering seven of last eight; Toronto lost last five visits here, last three by 16+ points. Argonauts are 6-20 vs spread in their last 26 road games; they’re 0-4 SU this season, with three losses by 25+ points- their road losses were 32-7/48-21. Calgary split its first four games, splitting pair of 4-point decisions at home; they allowed 30+ points in three of their four games. Stamps covered seven of last eight series games; under is 9-3 in last dozen series games played here.

    Ottawa (2-2) @ Winnipeg (4-0)— Blue Bombers scored 34.5 ppg in winning their first four games, with home wins by 7-27 points. Road team won seven of last eight series games, with Bombers covering five of last six; Ottawa won three of last four visits to Manitoba- over is 4-2 in last six series games. Ottawa lost last two games (both at home) by 15-17 points; they won only road game, 32-38 (+9) in Calgary. RedBlacks are 26-10 vs spread in last 36 road games; under is 13-6 in their last 19 road tilts.

    Edmonton (3-1) @ Montreal (2-2)— Edmonton (-8) beat Alouettes 32-25 in season opener, in a game where 17-14 4th quarter put game over total. Eskimos won last ten games with Montreal, but are 2-3 vs spread in last five; Edmonton won/covered their last four visits here. Last four series games went over the total— over is 12-3-1 in last 16 series games- Edmonton covered eight of last 11 series. Edmonton is on road for third game in row; they scored 32+ points in their three wins, were held to 21 in only loss, to BC. Under is 6-1-1 in Eskimos’ last eight road games. Montreal scored 36-36 points in winning its last two games.

    BC Lions (1-4) @ Saskatchewan (1-3)— Saskatchewan won last three series games, by 9-3-33 points; under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. BC lost its last two visits to Regina, 41-8/35-16. Lions allowed 33+ points in all four losses this year; they edged winless Toronto 18-17 (-8.5) for their one win. Over is 3-2 in their games this season. Roughriders’ only win is also vs Toronto; they’re at home for third game in row. Three of their four games stayed under total. Big game, with both teams off to slow starts.

    Season totals through Week 6:
    Home teams: 9-10
    Favorites: 9-9
    Over/under: 10-9
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-20-2019 at 01:47 AM.

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