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Thread: Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/11

  1. #1
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    Default Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/11

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 11

    Good Luck on day #192 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Props for NFL teams making the playoffs:

    — Pittsburgh Steelers No -$115, Yes -$115

    — San Francisco 49ers No -$300, Yes +$240

    — Seattle Seahawks No -$180, Yes +$150

    — Tampa Bay Buccaneers No -$700, Yes +$500

    — Tennessee Titans No -$350, Yes +$275

    — Washington Redskins No -$700, Yes +$500


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) New Orleans Pelicans sold 2,500 season tickets the night they won the draft lottery; imagine how many they must’ve sold the night of the draft?

    12) Celtics have 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall on their summer league team; their nutritionists have him eating 6,000 calories a day, to try and add some weight to his frame. Lot of eating.

    11) I turn on the Portland-Utah summer league game Tuesday and the first voice I hear is Dan Dakich, so immediately my reflex is……..MUTE BUTTON!!!! Good grief he is annoying.

    10) Nevada Wolf Pack alum Jordan Caroline had seven fouls in a game Monday night; the limit in summer league is ten- they don’t want guys fouling out, but having seven in a game isn’t good. Caroline’s dad and grandfather were really good football players, so it is in the genes.

    9) Part of the reason NBA Summer League is so popular is that it is a chance for regular people to see pro ball in person at affordable prices. You can sit there all day, watch four games for $35, and for kids, they’ve got a good chance to meet a current NBA player or coach.

    Plus if you’re in Las Vegas, its 105 outside and the arenas are air conditioned, and its a hell of a lot cheaper than playing video poker all day.

    8) Central Florida QB Darriel Mack Jr broke his ankle recently, so Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush is the Golden Knights’ likely starting QB this fall. Wimbush was Notre Dame’s starting QB two years ago.

    7) NFC East is the only division where all four teams have won a Super Bowl.

    6) NC State received a notice of allegations from the NCAA this week, related to the recruitment of former five-star point guard Dennis Smith Jr. Problem is, the coaches involved in all that have moved on, so the school will get punished for something the current coaches didn’t do.

    5) Warriors told Shaun Livingston to take a hike before his contract became fully guaranteed at $7.7M- instead he will get paid $666,000 a year over the next three years to go away. He hopes to play for a contending team next season.

    4) There are eight new head coaches in the NFL this season; Adam Gase, Bruce Arians are only two of the eight who have been NFL head coaches before. Kliff Kingsbury has been a head coach in college- Texas Tech fired him last year.

    3) There are 18 NFL coordinators with NFL head coaching experience.

    2) Quick college football trends:

    — Since 2017, Kentucky is 0-7 as a home favorite.
    — Mississippi State covered eight of last ten non-conference games.
    — Since 2012, Arizona State is 20-12 as a home favorite.

    1) RIP to former big league pitcher Jim Bouton, 80, who wrote Ball Four, which might’ve been the first real book I ever read. Controversial at the time, Ball Four was Bouton’s diary of the 1969 baseball season, where he took us inside a major league locker room, which was frowned upon at the time. Bouton started that season with the expansion Seattle Pilots and wound up with the Astros. RIP, sir.

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    MLB
    Weather Report

    Thursday, July 11


    Commercial Photography
    Last edited by Udog; 07-11-2019 at 08:02 AM.

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    951Houston -952 Texas
    TEXAS are 9-0 SU (9 Units) revenging 4 or more straight losses vs opponent in last 2 years in the current season.




    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, July 11


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HOUSTON (57 - 33) at TEXAS (48 - 42) - 8:05 PM
    FRAMBER VALDEZ (L) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    TEXAS is 48-42 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    TEXAS is 29-17 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
    TEXAS is 14-7 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.
    TEXAS is 31-28 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    TEXAS is 26-20 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    TEXAS is 18-17 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HOUSTON is 137-78 (+33.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 26-7 (+12.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
    HOUSTON is 95-53 (+26.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 59-24 (+25.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
    TEXAS is 7-19 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in home games in July games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TEXAS is 4-6 (+1.8 Units) against HOUSTON this season
    5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

    FRAMBER VALDEZ vs. TEXAS since 1997
    No recent starts.

    LANCE LYNN vs. HOUSTON since 1997
    LYNN is 4-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.182.
    His team's record is 4-3 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.4 units)

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    MLB

    Thursday, July 11


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Houston Astros
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    Houston is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
    Houston is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games on the road
    Houston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
    Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Texas
    Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Texas
    Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Texas
    Houston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Texas
    Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
    Texas Rangers
    Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    Texas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games
    Texas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Texas's last 23 games at home
    Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
    Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Houston
    Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
    Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
    Texas is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Houston


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Thursday, July 11



    Houston @ Texas

    Game 951-952
    July 11, 2019 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    (Valdez) 16.300
    Texas
    (Lynn) 14.745
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 1 1/2
    13
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    -125
    11
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-125); Over





    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, July 11


    Astros (57-33) @ Rangers (48-42)
    Valdez is 0-2, 15.63 in his last two starts. Team in his starts: 1-3
    5-inning record: 1-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-4 Over/under: 2-1-1

    Lynn is 4-0, 2.48 in his last four starts; he is 4-2, 2.20 in eight games (7 starts) vs Houston. Team in his starts: 12-6
    5-inning record: 11-5-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-18 Over/under: under 6-2-1 last nine

    Astros won seven of last eight games, are 11-3 in road series openers- over is 4-2 in their last six road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-4 last 13 road games.

    Texas lost six of last eight games; they’re 4-11 in home series openers- over is 4-1 in their last five home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-3 last nine home games.

    %age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
    Team (road-home-total)- thru 7/10
    Ariz 15-49……9-42…….24
    Atl 14-44…..15-47……29
    Cubs 12-45……15-45…..27
    Reds 14-42……15-45…..29
    Colo 10-46……17-43……27
    LA 11-43……18-49……29
    Mia 8-44……11-44…….19
    Milw 15-46…..17-45…..32
    Mets 17-48……12-42…..29
    Philly 13-46…..16-44…….29
    Pitt 14-46…..11-43……25
    StL 13-46…..8-42……..21
    SD 15-41……11-47…..26
    SF 4-43……10-45…….14
    Wash 13-43…..12-43……,25

    Orioles 12-47…….15-42..…..27
    Boston 12-48…….12-42……24
    W Sox 9-41…….17-45……..26
    Clev 13-45…..13-43……..26
    Det 12-41……13-44……..25
    Astros 15-43…..10-47……..25
    KC 12-47…..15-44……..27
    Angels 16-48……10-43…….26
    Twins 17-46……10-43……27
    NYY 15-43……14-45……29
    A’s 9-45…….10-46……19
    Sea 11-46…..15-48…….26
    TB 16-43…..15-46…….31
    Texas 13-44…..14-46…….27
    Toronto 10-43…..14-48…….24

    Interleague play- 2019
    NL @ AL– 43-36 NL, favorites -$1,453 over 37-36-3
    AL @ NL– 37-31 NL, favorites -$1,136 over 38-31-2
    Total: 80-67 NL, favorites -$2,589 Over 75-67-5

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    Weekly Total Talk
    Joe Williams

    Standalone Texas Battle

    The Houston Astros travel to meet the Texas Rangers on Thursday, opening up the second half as the standalone game of the night in MLB. Everyone else is off until Friday night.

    The Astros picked up a win before heading out for the All-Star break, and they're 7-3-2 across the past 12 games following a victory. In addition, they're 3-1-1 in the past five games following an off day. The over is also 5-1 in the past six games on the road against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.

    For the Rangers, the under has been the rule lately, especially with RHP Lance Lynn on the bump. The under is 7-2 in his past nine outings, while going 4-1 in his past five games inside the American League West Division. The under is also 7-2 in the past nine in Game 1 of a new series, while going 19-7 in the past 26 games following a win. Over the past three outings, Lynn is 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with a .233 opponent on-base percentage. While the over is 2-0 in his past two at home, the under is 4-2 across the past six contests.

    Wind Report
    In Thursday's game in Arlington, there will be a hot wind blowing 11-14 mph out to the right-field porch for the Astros-Rangers battle. Temperatures at game-time will be around 100 degrees, too.


    Friday, July 12

    The Pirates and Cubs do battle at Wrigley Field at 2:20 p.m. ET with RHP Chris Archer and RHP Yu Darvish locking horns. When Archer is on the hill, the over has followed. The over is 4-1 in his past five on the road, and 4-1 in his past five inside the division, too. The over is 3-1-1 in his past five starts overall, and 6-2 in his past eight against teams with a winning overall record. For the Cubbies, the under is 5-0 in the past five after a scheduled day off, while the under is 4-1 in their past five at home. The under is also 3-1-1 in the past five starts by Darvish. However, the over is 4-1 in his past five inside the division, while going 6-2-1 in the past nine against teams with a losing overall record. The over is also 3-1-1 in his past five at home.

    The Blue Jays and Yankees renew acquaintances in the Bronx. While the under is 4-1 in Toronto's past five games, the over is 8-2-1 in their past 11 on the road, and 20-8-3 in the past 31 against teams with a winning overall record. The over is 4-1 in New York's past five, too, and 5-2 in the past seven against the AL East. The over is also 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Yankee Stadium, too.

    The Indians, fresh off a rather successful job of hosting the All-Star Game festivities (unless you count the scoreboard operator - Google it), host the Twins in a key battle in the AL Central. Cleveland has closed Minnesota's lead from double digits a month ago to just 5 1/2 at the break. The under is 5-2-1 in Minnesota's past eight games on the road, and 3-1-1 in their past five inside the division. For the Indians, the over is 3-1-1 in the past five games overall, and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning percentage over .600. The over is also 4-1 in RHP Mike Clevinger's past five against AL Central foes, 3-1-1 in his past five against winning teams and 5-1 in his past six at home. However, the under is 5-1 in Clevinger's past six against the Twins, while going 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings overall in this series.

    The Nationals and Phillies kick off the second half on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park at 6:05 p.m. ET with RHP Stephen Strasburg and RHP Nick Pivetta squaring off. The Nationals closed out the first half hitting the under in six of the past seven games, and they're 6-1 in the past seven overall vs. RHP, too. The under is 3-0-1 in the past four following a scheduled day off, too, while going 18-7-1 in the past 26 starts by Strasburg. The under is also 5-1-1 in the past seven in Game 1 of a new series. For the Phillies, the over cashed in each of their final four to close out the first half. The over is 4-0 in the past four vs. RHP, too, while going 3-1-1 in the past five at home. The over is also 9-3 in their past 12 against winning teams, while hitting in seven of Pivetta's past nine inside the division. The over is also 6-1 in Pivetta's past seven outings vs. Washington. As an added bonus, the Phillies are 0-8 in Pivetta's past eight outings vs. the Nats, and 0-4 in his past four at home against Washington.

    In late-night action, LHP Dallas Keuchel takes the ball for the Braves against RHP Dinelson Lamet and the Padres. The under is 4-1-1 in Atlanta's past six games, and 4-1 in the past five vs. RHP. The under has also cashed in each of the past four outings by Keuchel, while going 5-2-1 in the past eight games on the road. For the Padres, the under has also hit in each of the past four games, while going 5-0 in the past five against teams with a winning overall record. The under is 6-2-1 in the past nine at home vs. LHP, too. In addition, the under is 4-1 in Lamet's past five starts against NL East foes, while going 5-2 in his past seven at home and 6-2 in his past eight against teams with a winning overall mark. The under is also 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, too.

    Wind Report
    In Philly, the winds will be blowing from left to right at a 10-13 mph clip, aiding left-handed hitters. The winds will also be blowing from third base to first base at Yankee Stadium for the Jays-Yanks game, but at a 9-12 mph clip.

    The winner, in terms of wind, is the Astros-Rangers game at Globe Life Park. The winds will be blowing from 10-13 mph out to right field for the second consecutive evening. Other than that, the winds will be rather variable at the other MLB venues.

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    Rangers +.5 1st 5 -135

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    Quote Originally Posted by Udog View Post
    Rangers +.5 1st 5 -135
    Rangers +.5 1st 5 -135 W

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