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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur., July 11 -Sat., July 13)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur., July 11 -Sat., July 13)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 11 - Saturday, July 13

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Betting Recap - Week 4
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    This Week


    -- Underdogs went 3-1 SU in Week 4
    -- Underdogs went 4-0 ATS in Week 4
    -- Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 4
    -- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 4
    -- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 4

    Year To Date

    -- Favorites are 10-5 SU overall
    -- Underdogs are 9-6 ATS overall
    -- Home teams are 9-6 SU overall
    -- Away teams are 8-7 ATS overall
    -- The 'Over' is 8-7 overall

    Analysis

    Montreal (1-2)
    opened the week on Thursday night with a huge 36-29 win over Hamilton (3-1) in the home opener for the Alouettes, dealing QB Jeremiah Masoli and the high-flying Ti-Cats their first loss and non-cover. It was the biggest upset through the first month of the CFL regular season, as the Als cashed anywhere from +450 to +550 for those brave enough to select them on the moneyline. It's hard to imagine there were many takers after a 41-10 win by Hamilton over Montreal in Week 3.

    The Alouettes are now 2-1 ATS and the 'over' has connected in two of their first three. The Ti-Cats were held to 29 points, their lowest point total since they opened the season with a 23-17 win over the Roughriders.

    In the best matchup of the weekend, Winnipeg (3-0) flexed its muscle again in a 29-14 road victory against Ottawa (2-1), as the Blue Bombers improved to a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season, too, including 2-0 SU/ATS on the road. Winninpeg is averaging 31.0 points per game (PPG) in two road outings, too. The 14 points they allowed defensively was the lowest this season.

    The RedBlacks entered the week with 38.0 PPG, but they were held well under their average. Defense continues to be a challenge for the RedBlacks, who have now allowed 32.7 PPG.

    BC Lions (1-3) edged Toronto (0-3) for the 18-17 road victory as the 'under' easily connected. It was, by far, Toronto's best defensive effort of the season. After allowing 96 total points through the first two games, including 64 in Week 1 against the Ti-Cats, the 'under' has now cashed in back-to-back games for the Argos.

    The low-scoring result was the first 'under' result after three straight overs to open the season. The Lions allowed 36.0 PPG in the first three outings, and they had scored 23 or more points in each of the contests, so the defensive battle was a departure from the norm. For the Argos, it was their first cover of the season, too.

    Calgary (2-1) hit the road without QB Bo Levi Mitchell (pectoral), who is on the six-game injured list. QB Nick Arbuckle stepped in and steered the ship to a road win against Saskatchewan (1-3) by a comfortable 37-10 score. Arbuckle threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns, as the Stamps have now won two in a row. It was their first cover of the season, their highest point total of the season and their lowest defensive total allowed.

    Team Betting Notes

    -- On Thursday it will be the Eskimos traveling to British Columbia to take on the Lions. Neither of these teams have been particularly attractive against the number. The Esks are 0-4 ATS in the past four on the road, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven after a bye week.

    -- The Lions are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against West Division clubs. They're also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 in Week 5, for whatever that's worth. In this series, Edmonton is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, but just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 trips to Vancouver. The 'over' is 5-0-1 in the past six meetings in this series.

    -- The winless Argonauts travel to meet the high-flying Blue Bombers, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a spread in the high teens or even low 20's in this one. The Argos are 1-6 ATS in the past seven games overall, and 7-19 ATS in the past 26 on the road.

    -- For the Blue Bombers, they're 9-2 ATS in the past 11 games overall dating back to last season. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four games at home, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against losing teams. In this series, the Argos are 0-6 ATS in the past six meetings, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six trips to Winnipeg. The over is also 6-0 in the past six meetings, and 4-1 in the past five battles in Winnipeg.

    -- On Saturday we get Montreal and Ottawa tangling in Canada's capital city. The Als have covered seven of the past eight overall, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven against winning teams and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 on the road.

    -- The RedBlacks are 4-0 ATS in the past four against East teams, but just 2-6 ATS in the past eight against losing teams. Ottawa has managed a 10-3 ATS mark in the past 13 meetings in this series.

    -- As far as the total is concerned in Montreal-Ottawa, it's all under all the time. The under is 7-0 in the past seven meetings. While the over is 4-1 in Montreal's past five, the under is 10-3 in Montreal's past 13 road outings. The Under is 13-4 in the past 17 for the RedBlacks against the East, while going 5-2 in the past seven against losing teams.

    -- In Saturday's final game, Calgary and Hamilton tangle in what should be the best matchup of the weekend. The Ti-Cats are 6-18-3 ATS in the past 27 against winning teams, and 0-7-1 ATS in the past eight games in the month of July. In this series, Calgary is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings and 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in Hamilton. The under is 10-3 in the past 13 meetings in this series, while the under is 5-2 in the past seven in Hamilton.

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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
    David Schwab

    Betting Recap

    On the 4th of July, Montreal posted its first straight-up win of the season in Thursday night’s 36-29 upset against Hamilton as a heavy 13-point home underdog. This was the backend of an East Division home-and-home series.

    In Friday’s CFL action, Winnipeg remained undefeated on the year with a 29-14 victory over Ottawa as a three-point road underdog. British Columbia edged Toronto 18-17 as an eight-point road favorite in Saturday’s early game ahead of Calgary’s 37-10 pasting of Saskatchewan as a five-point underdog on the road this past Saturday night.

    Thursday, July 11

    Edmonton Eskimos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

    Point-spread:
    Total:

    Game Overview

    Edmonton comes off a bye week looking for its first road win of the season. The Eskimos were upended by Winnipeg 28-21 in Week 3 as five-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER 57 ½ points in that loss after going OVER in their first two wins at home against Montreal and BC. Edmonton beat the Lions 39-23 in Week 2 as three-point favorites at home. Trevor Harris has thrown for 1,086 yards and six touchdowns against zero interceptions in his first three starts for the Eskimos as their new quarterback.

    The Lions snapped a three-game losing streak with Saturday’s win. They were outscored by 30 points in those first three losses before squeezing past Toronto with the one-point win their last time out. Mike Reilly completed 23 of his 34 passing attempts in his last start for 272 passing yards and one score. He was also picked off once. BC got a big effort from John White running the ball with 138 rushing yards and one score on 22 carries.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Eskimos have a 5-2 edge against the spread in their last seven games against BC and the total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings. The Lions are 10-4 SU and ATS in their last 14 home games against the Eskimos.


    Friday, July 12

    Toronto Argonauts (0-3 SU, 1-2ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

    Point-spread:
    Total:

    Game Overview

    Toronto is still looking for its first win of the season after losing 14 of 18 games SU in 2018. The Argonauts are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on the road. McLeod Bethel-Thompson put the ball up 33 times against BC on Saturday and he completed 25 of those passes for 303 yards and one touchdown. He also tossed an interception. Toronto was held to 41 yards rushing on 11 attempts. James Wilder Jr. has rushed for 105 yards on 22 carries this season.

    The Blue Bombers are the only CFL team with a perfect record both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in their last two games after going OVER 50 ½ point in a 33-23 win against BC in Week 1 with the closing spread set as a PICK. Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols left Friday’s game in the third quarter with an apparent neck injury, but he remains optimistic that he will be able to go this Friday night. Chris Streveler took his place and he completed six of his eight passing attempts for 42 yards and a score.

    Betting Trends

    -- Winnipeg has a 4-1 edge both SU and ATS in its last five home games against the Argonauts. The total has gone OVER in the last five meetings in this inter-division clash. The Blue Bombers have won five of the last six meetings SU overall.


    Saturday, July 13

    Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

    Point-spread:
    Total:

    Game Overview

    The Alouettes stopped a two-game SU skid with last Thursday’s upset. The total went OVER 56 points against Hamilton and it has gone OVER in two of their first three games. Vernon Adams Jr. threw for 202 yards in that game after completing 14 of his 25 passing attempts. William Stanback was the top star on offense with 203 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on 22 carries. He now leads the CFL in that category with 357 yards on the ground and four scores on 44 carries.

    Ottawa started the season with a road upset against Calgary followed by a wild 44-41 victory against Saskatchewan at home as a 4 ½-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER 54 points in the loss to Winnipeg after it went OVER in the RedBlacks’ first two games. Dominique Davis has started all three games at quarterback and he has thrown for 864 yards and three touchdowns, but he has also tossed six interceptions. He has completed 67.2 percent of his 119 passing attempts.

    Betting Trends

    -- Ottawa has won six of its last seven games against Montreal SU with the total staying UNDER in each of the last five meetings. The RedBlacks are 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine home games against the Alouettes.

    Calgary Stampeders (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
    Point-spread:
    Total:

    Game Overview

    The defending CFL Champions played the part on Saturday with the lopsided victory against Saskatchewan despite the absence of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell due to injury. In his place, Nick Arbuckle completed 19-of-22 passes for 262 yards and two scores. Reginald Begelton caught four passes for 61 yards and a score. Arbuckle completed at least one pass to nine different players. The Stampeders ran the ball 21 times for an additional 129 yards on the ground.

    The Tiger-Cats fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with last Thursday’s loss as heavy road favorites. They beat Montreal 41-10 in the first meeting on June 28 as 12 ½-point favorites at home. The total went OVER 56 points in that second meeting after staying UNDER 56 ½ points in Week 3. Quarterback Jeramiah Masoli leads the CFL in passing after completing 94 of his 134 attempts for 1,325 yards in four games. He has seven touchdown throws against five interceptions.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has won its last five road games against the Tiger-Cats SU with a 6-1 record ATS in the last seven meetings in Hamilton. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 13 meetings overall.

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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 5


    Thursday, July 11

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    EDMONTON (2 - 1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 3) - 7/11/2019, 10:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    EDMONTON is 5-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 5-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, July 12

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    TORONTO (0 - 3) at WINNIPEG (3 - 0) - 7/12/2019, 8:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 4-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 3-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, July 13

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    MONTREAL (1 - 2) at OTTAWA (2 - 1) - 7/13/2019, 4:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 4-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 5-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CALGARY (2 - 1) at HAMILTON (3 - 1) - 7/13/2019, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CFL

    Week 5


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, July 11

    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
    Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games on the road
    Edmonton is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing British Columbia
    Edmonton is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing British Columbia
    Edmonton is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    Edmonton is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    British Columbia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games
    British Columbia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
    British Columbia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Edmonton
    British Columbia is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
    British Columbia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Edmonton
    British Columbia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Edmonton


    Friday, July 12

    Toronto Argonauts
    Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
    Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
    Toronto is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
    Winnipeg is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
    Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games at home
    Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
    Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto


    Saturday, July 13

    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Montreal is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games
    Montreal is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Montreal is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Montreal's last 13 games on the road
    Montreal is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Ottawa
    Montreal is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games at home
    Ottawa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Montreal
    Ottawa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Montreal
    Ottawa is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal

    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games
    Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
    Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Hamilton
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 13 games when playing Hamilton
    Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 13 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Hamilton's last 15 games
    Hamilton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Hamilton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
    Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Hamilton's last 13 games when playing Calgary
    Hamilton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Calgary
    Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Hamilton's last 13 games when playing at home against Calgary


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Thursday, July 11



    Edmonton @ BC Lions

    Game 951-952
    July 11, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Edmonton
    113.974
    BC Lions
    103.338
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 10 1/2
    59
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 3 1/2
    55
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-3 1/2); Over





    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, July 11


    Edmonton (2-1) @ BC Lions (0-3)— Edmonton (-3) outscored BC 19-6 in second half of 39-23 home win over the Lions three weeks ago (total yardage 409-202, Eskimos). Home side won last four meetings; Edmonton lost last two visits to Vancouver, 42-32/31-23- over is 5-0-1 in last six series games. Eskimos lost their road opener 28-21 in Winnipeg LW; home side won all three of their games. Lions got first win 18-17 over winless Toronto LW; this is their first home game in four weeks- they lost home opener 33-23 to Winnipeg. Over is 3-1 in their games, 2-1 in Eskimo games.

    Season totals through Week 4:
    Home teams: 7-8
    Favorites: 6-8
    Over/under: 8-7

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    Well-rested Eskimos eager to attack
    Rohit Ponnaiya

    Kenny Stafford and the Edmonton Eskimos will try to continue their dominance through the air as 3.5-point favorites against the BC Lions in CFL action on Thursday night.

    Last week was crazy even by CFL standards with underdogs winning straight up in three of four games and losing by just single point in the other. But we're jumping back on the horse with our picks for Week 5.

    Usually odds for all of the CFL games in the week drop by Tuesday but books have taken their time rolling out the lines for Week 5 with only Thursday's game on the board. We break down the odds for the Thursday night matchup on the west coast as the BC Lions, fresh off their first win of the season, host the Edmonton Eskimos.

    Season Betting Trends

    Favorites: 10-5 SU, 6-9 ATS
    Home teams: 9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS
    Over/Under: 8-7

    Week 4 Picks: 0-4
    Season to date: 5-10



    EDMONTON ESKIMOS AT BC LIONS

    ODDS: Edmonton -3, O/U: 53.5
    TIME: Thursday, July 11, 10:00 p.m. ET

    This is a rematch from Week 2, except the Eskimos will be on the road. That first game was highly anticipated with star quarterback Mike Reilly returning to Edmonton where he starred with the Eskimos for the last six years. But Reilly went bust in that game, completing just 14 for 27 passes for 149 yards in a 39-23 BC loss. While Reilly hasn't lived up to lofty expectations so far this season with the Lions he has completed 70 percent of his passes while throwing for an average of 316.7 yards in his three other games.

    One thing that might help him this week is that BC is starting to establish a ground game and won't be so one-dimensional. In that previous matchup, Lions running back John White had just eight carries for 24 yards, but he's been getting more and more touches every week and carried the ball 22 for 138 yards against Toronto last Saturday.

    That game against Toronto was interesting, BC pulled off their first win of the season but it took a last-second rouge to do so. A "rouge" might be one of the weirdest things in the CFL and occurs when a team misses a field goal but the ball goes through the end zone resulting in a single point for the kicking team. Suffice to say, BC sneaking by against a Toronto team that had been blown out in their first two games is not a good look.

    The Lions defense has been a weak-spot this season allowing an average of 31.2 points per game. They limited Toronto's league-worst offense to 17 points last week which was just the first time this year they've held an opponent to fewer than 33 points.

    The Eskimos should be able to shred the Lions secondary. Quarterback Trevor Harris has been on fire, completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 1086 yards and six touchdowns against zero interceptions. They also have a strong running game led by former USC Trojan CJ Gable who has 60 rushes for 347 yards.

    Most surprisingly their defense, led by five-time CFL All-Star defensive tackle Almondo Sewell, has been outstanding, holding opponents to the fewest passing yards (180 per game) and total yards (270 per game) in the league.

    The Eskimos are coming off a bye week after a loss on the road to the Blue Bombers in Week 3 and should be well-rested and fired up to come away with the win tonight. On the other hand, BC could be tired after only four days of rest since playing Saturday night in Toronto. The Eskimos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against BC and should be able to take this one and cover as well.

    PICK: Edmonton -3

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    CFL
    Dunkel


    Friday, July 12

    Toronto @ Winnipeg

    Game 683-684
    July 12, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    95.030
    Winnipeg
    121.550
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 26 1/2
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 14 1/2
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (-14 1/2); Over


    Saturday, July 13

    Calgary @ Hamilton


    Game 687-688
    July 13, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    120.514
    Hamilton
    118.153
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 2 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Hamilton
    by 4 1/4
    53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (+4 1/2); Under

    Montreal @ Ottawa


    Game 685-686
    July 13, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Montreal
    107.419
    Ottawa
    119.906
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    by 12 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Ottawa
    by 9
    52
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (-9); Over

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, July 12


    Toronto (0-3) @ Winnipeg (3-0)— Blue Bombers won five of last six series games; over is 8-2 in last ten meetings. Toronto lost lost last three visits to Manitoba, by 26-8-17 points. Argos are 7-19 vs spread in their last 26 road games; they lost first three games this season, by 1-50-32 points, scoring only 12.7 ppg- Toronto (+11.5) lost their road opener 32-7 at Saskatchewan. Winnipeg scored 30 ppg in winning its first three games, beating Edmonton 28-21 (-4.5) in its home opener. Blue Bombers covered nine of their last 11 games overall.


    Saturday, July 13

    Montreal (1-2) @ Ottawa (2-1)— Ottawa won six of last seven series games, but lost last meeting as a 16-point home favorite last August. Montreal covered three of its last five visits to Ottawa. RedBlacks covered 10 of last 13 series games, with last seven staying under. Alouettes covered eight of last ten road games, seven of last eight games overall; they upset Hamilton 36-29 (+14 LW, after losing road games by by 31-7 points to Ti-Cats, Edmonton. Ottawa scored 44-32 in winning its first two games, then lost 29-14 (-3) at home to Winnipeg last week.

    Calgary (2-1) @ Hamilton (3-1)— Calgary won last ten games in this series, covering six of last seven; Stampeders won their last five visits here, covering four of them. Under is 10-3 in last 13 series games. Calgary scored 36-37 points in winning its last two games after a home opening loss to Ottawa; underdogs covered all three of their games this year. Hamilton scored 39.3 ppg in its 3-1 start, but they lost as a 14-point favorite in Montreal LW, giving up 36 points, after they allowed total of 41 points in their first three wins.

    Season totals through Week 4:
    Home teams: 7-8
    Favorites: 6-8
    Over/under: 8-7

  9. #9
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    By: Rohit Ponnaiya


    TORONTO ARGONAUTS AT WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

    ODDS: Winnipeg -14.5, 51.5
    TIME: Friday, July 12, 8:30 p.m. ET

    Winnipeg is looking just as good as advertised, going 3-0 straight up and ATS and coming off a victory on the road in Ottawa. Toronto is just as bad as advertised starting off 0-3.

    McLeod Bethel-Thompson will get the start behind center for the second week in a row for the Argos. Last week he played well completing 25 of 33 passes for 303 yards but still couldn't consistently move the chains. Toronto's offense ranks at the bottom of the league in both yardage and scoring.

    On defense, the Argos allow the most points (38 per game) and the second most yards (523 per game) in the league. They get destroyed both on the ground (giving up 141.3 yards per game) and through the air (381.7). Toronto will also be without DT Poop Johnson who was recently cut. He didn't start for the Argos but I thought he would have made a good No. 2 (sorry, couldn't resist).

    Winnipeg has been winning with their defense and running game, holding opponents to a league low 19.3 points while piling up 134 yards per game on the ground. However, they average just 229.3 yards per game through the air, so they don't have the quick-strike ability of some of the other top teams in the CFL. I expect the Bombers to win but can't take them on the current spread of 14.5. Instead count on them to shut down Toronto's offense and take the Under on the game total.

    PICK: Under 51.5


    MONTREAL ALOUETTES AT OTTAWA REDBLACKS

    ODDS: Ottawa -9, 51
    TIME: Saturday, July 13, 4:00 p.m. ET

    Nothing sums up the whacky world that is the CFL better than Montreal's 36-29 win over Hamilton just one week after losing 41-10 to the exact same team. The Als ran roughshod over the Ti-Cats on the back of tailback William Stanback who rumbled for 203 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

    Stanback is a 233-pound bruiser with sub-4.5 second speed and every time he's gotten touches he's produced. Montreal will have Vernon Adams Jr. at QB and he's a dangerous scrambler that gained 60 yards on six carries last week. With Stanback and Adams threatening with the ground game the Redblacks front seven will be kept honest.

    Ottawa is coming off a home loss to the Blue Bombers where they were dismantled by a clinical Bombers side. Their running game was stuffed against Winnipeg and penalties also cost them 110 yards. Quarterback Dominique Davis' two picks didn't help.

    As bad as Montreal is, they are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games on the road. Ottawa has struggled to cover against inferior opponents, going 2-6 ATS in their previous eight contests versus teams with a losing record. With the Als coming off a big win, back them to keep things close. Take them and the points.

    PICK: Montreal +9


    CALGARY STAMPEDERS AT HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

    ODDS: Hamilton -4, 53
    TIME: Saturday, July 13, 7:00 p.m. ET

    Hamilton was on the ugly side of that upset loss to Montreal and should be plenty motivated for this one. Calgary on the other hand is coming off a huge upset win, and rout, over Saskatchewan on the road.

    Incumbent Calgary QB Nick Arbuckle continues to impress in Bo Levi-Mitchell's absense, completing 19 of 22 passes for 262 yards against the Roughriders. On the other side of the ball, DB Tre Roberson has been incredible for the Stamps, racking up five interceptions through the first three games.

    That said, this Hamilton offense led by Jeremiah Masoli is a juggernaut and is first in the league in yardage (456 yards per game) and scoring (39.2 points per game). They should be able to pile up yardage against a Calgary defense that struggled in the first two games of the season. While the Ti-Cats also have the highest rated scoring defense in the CFL, they have yet to play an offense of Calgary's caliber. Take the Over on the total.

    PICK: Over 53

    Week 4 Picks: 0-4
    Season to date: 5-10

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