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Thread: Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/10

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    Default Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/10

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, July 10

    Good Luck on day #191 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    Props for NFL teams making the playoffs:

    — Miami Dolphins No -$2,500, Yes +$1,100

    — Minnesota Vikings No -$130, Yes +$110

    — New Orleans Saints Yes -$330, No +$260

    — New Jersey Giants No -$700, Yes +$500

    — New Jersey Jets No -$425, Yes +$325

    — Oakland Raiders No -$800, Yes +$55


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) I’d rather watch NBA Summer League games than Home Run Derby; just would rather watch actual games with guys competing for jobs.

    Overall I’m a much bigger baseball fan than an NBA fan, but I like games, not batting practice.

    12) Been listening to Sam Mitchell do analysis on NBA Summer League games; he’s great, he tells stories, just sits there and talks about ball, which is all I’m asking for.

    11) Tip of the cap to my friend Phil, who nailed a $50 bet on Pete Alonso at 5-1 to win the Home Run Derby.

    This makes up for the summer night in 1983 when we were at jai-alai in Hartford, CT and Phil didn’t do so well; he unleashed a torrent of epithets at a player named Gurney who cost Phil a quinella with a bad blunder. To this day it is the hardest I’ve ever laughed in my entire life; had tears running down my face, I was laughing so hard.

    Phil….he wasn’t laughing; hope this makes up for it.

    10) Cincinnati Reds used five different left fielders in Sunday’s game, the first time that has happened since 1908; they also used four 2B Sunday, first time they’ve done that since 1958.

    In that 1958 game, Gus Bell went 1-5 for the Reds with a run scored and an RBI; his grandson David is the Reds’ manager now.

    9) Jay Bruce is the first player in MLB history to hit 10+ home runs for two different teams before the All-Star break; he hit 14 for Seattle, has 10 for the Phillies.

    8) Astros, Twins, Braves and Brewers are supposedly the teams most interested in Madison Bumgarner; Minnesota is the only one of those teams that can acquire Bumgarner without his permission.

    7) Jaxson Hayes is running amok for the New Orleans Pelicans in summer league; this is a kid who never started a high school game until his senior year, which means that only 20 months ago, he had never started a game, and now he looks like an NBA star in the making.

    6) Seth Greenberg is really good on TV and he was a good college hoop coach, but he said something the other day, that was odd…….odd as in, people who work for ESPN aren’t allowed to criticize guys who played for Duke.

    He was talking about Cam Reddish on the Hawks: “He was regarded as a good shooter coming out of high school, but he didn’t make many shots last year.”

    It is pretty easy to decide who the good shooters are: they make the most shots. Reddish shot 39.4% inside the arc, 33.3% outside the arc at Duke last season. Not good.

    5) Thanasis Antetokounmpo is signing a fully guaranteed two-year, $3M veteran’s minimum deal with the Bucks. Milwaukee is getting creative with ways to keep his brother Giannis, one of the best players in the league, but as a lifelong Oakland A’s fan who had to live thru the Jeremy Giambi era, it likely won’t work.

    4) Rams’ QB Jared Goff got his first hole-in-one a few weeks ago. I got a hole-in-one once, but it came on a windmill hole, so I’m told that doesn’t count.

    3) Chinese Nationals 84, Hornets 80— I know it is only summer league, but Michael Jordan owns the Hornets and he couldn’t have been too happy after this game Monday night.

    2) Has the Home Run Derby hurt the All-Star Game’s popularity? Sometimes it seems like the home run contest has surpassed the game as a fun event for fans.

    1) Commercial on the Mets’ game Sunday: “Cremation starting for as little as $895!!!”

    Who knew cremation was such a good deal?

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    TOP MONEY STARTING PITCHER (based on $100 wager per start)

    Andrew Cashner BAL (11-6) $1196

    Honorable mention

    Lucas Giolito CHW (12-5) $955
    Brandon Woodruff MIL (14-4) $897
    Mike Soroka ATL (12-3) $856


    WORST MONEY STARTING PITCHER (based on $100 wager per start)

    Chris Sale BOS (6-12) $-1878

    Honorable mention

    Jacob deGrom NYM (5-13) $-1567
    Aaron Sanchez TOR (5-14) $-890
    Jack Flaherty STL (7-11) $-877


    TOP OVER STARTING PITCHERS (min. 10 starts)

    Yusei Kikuchi SEA 15-3 O/U
    Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 15-3 O/U

    Honorable mention

    Noah Syndergaard NYM 12-4 O/U
    Mike Foltynewicz ATL 8-3 O/U


    TOP UNDER STARTING PITCHER (min. 10 starts)

    Vince Velasquez PHI 8-2 U/O

    Honorable mention

    Shane Bieber CLE 13-4 U/O
    Spencer Turnbull DET 12-4 U/O
    Jason Vargas NYM 8-3


    TOP OVER UMPIRE (min. 10 games behind home plate)

    Alan Porter 14-2

    Honorable mention

    Jeffrey Kellogg 10-3
    Mike Winters 10-3
    Carlos Torres 11-4


    TOP UNDER UMPIRES (min. 10 games behind home plate)

    Jerry Meals 12-4
    Rob Drake 12-4

    Honorable mention

    Kerwin Danley 10-4
    Andy Fletcher 10-4
    Joe West 12-5


    TOP OVER TEAM (sorted by Over %)
    Dodgers 58-32-4

    Honorable mention
    Pirates 53-33-3
    Mets 47-33-10
    Red Sox 51-36-3


    TOP UNDER TEAM (sorted by Under %)
    Reds 54-30-3

    Honorable mention
    Rays 46-37-8
    Astros 47-38-5
    Indians 47-38-3

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    AL holds off NL, 'under' cashes

    CLEVELAND (AP) For one night, the pitchers took back the power.

    Hours after an awesome Home Run Derby got everyone buzzing even louder about monster shots and juiced balls, only a couple flew out of Progressive Field in the All-Star Game.

    Instead, Justin Verlander blazed 97 mph heat from the start, Shane Bieber and Aroldis Chapman each struck out the side and the American League slowed a loaded NL lineup 4-3 Tuesday for its seventh straight win.

    ''I know it's the year of the home run, but pitching dominated today,'' Colorado slugger Nolan Arenado said.

    Sure did - at least until play resumes Thursday.

    Facing Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger and a bunch of boppers, the AL staff combined to strike out 16.

    ''Baseball is a funny game,'' said Bieber, a most unlikely MVP after being added late to the roster.

    With fans hoping to see a replay of Monday's jaw-dropping aerial show when 312 homers cleared the walls, this became the Arm-Star Game up until the late innings.

    Derby champ Pete Alonso of the Mets grounded a two-out, two-run single past Gleyber Torres in the eighth to close the NL's gap. After a double steal put runners at second and third against Cleveland reliever Brad Hand, White Sox catcher James McCann made a tumbling catch on Mike Moustakas' twisting foul pop to end the inning.

    Chapman closed to give the AL its 19th win in 22 games, with a tie stuck in there. He got a little encouragement with two outs - Yankees teammate CC Sabathia, honored this week for his contributions on and off the field, strolled to the mound to talk to the flamethrower.

    Chapman then struck out Yasmani Grandal for a save , giving the AL an overall 45-43-2 lead in the Midsummer Classic.

    No need, either, for the experimental rule that was set to go effect: If the game went into extras, each team would've started the 10th with an automatic runner on second base.

    Major League Baseball is on a record-shattering pace for homers this season, but no one came close to clearing the walls until Charlie Blackmon connected in the NL sixth to make it 2-1. Texas' Joey Gallo countered with a solo drive in a two-run seventh.

    Still, it was a far cry from last year's All-Star Game that featured a record 10 home runs.

    ''I kind of expected it, to be honest,'' former NL MVP Kris Bryant said. ''You only see them once, so they have the advantage.''

    ''There are a lot of hard throwers and great pitchers over there. Unless you've seen them before, it's a difficult matchup,'' he said.

    Cleveland favorite Michael Brantley had an early RBI double off losing pitcher Clayton Kershaw. Jorge Polanco drove in a run with an infield single for a 2-0 edge in the fifth and another scored on a double-play grounder.

    ''I wanted to swing the bat early. I had some nervous jitters I wanted to get out,'' Brantley said.

    Winning pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, Lucas Giolito and Shane Greene did their parts to protect the lead with scoreless innings.

    Bieber dazzled in front of a chanting home crowd, striking out Willson Contreras, Ketel Marte and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the fifth with a 1-0 lead. Bieber later donated his cap to the Hall of Fame.

    ''It was electric out there, the fans got in it and it was fun,'' AL manager Alex Cora of the Red Sox said. ''And I'm glad that he got the MVP. He plays at this level. He's really good.''

    The biggest misplay of the night might have been on the scoreboard. NL All-Stars David Dahl of Colorado and Willson Contreras of the Cubs had their names misspelled - ''Davis Dahl'' and ''Wilson Contreras'' - on the outfield videoboard. Jeff McNeil was spelled correctly, but the photo accompanying it was of Mets teammate Jacob deGrom.

    ''That was tough, to see deGrom's picture up there,'' McNeil said. ''I didn't really like that. I wanted to see my picture up there. I know my family did, too. What are you going to do, I guess, but I don't think that should happen.''

    Fittingly, the first batter of the game was the guy who leads the majors in home runs - Yelich, the NL MVP with 31 homers at the break, hit leadoff for the first time this year.

    Yelich lined out and Verlander quickly fanned Javier Baez and Freddie Freeman to finish his work.

    Those lively balls that Verlander is complaining about? Didn't bother him a bit.

    NL starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, deGrom and Luis Castillo threw scoreless innings to keep the NL close in the early going.

    Pittsburgh dynamo Josh Bell was part of the youngest starting lineup in All-Star history, with the NL crew averaging under 26 years old.

    Overall, there were 36 first-timers, a number boosted by the absence of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Jose Altuve and several past perennials. And consider this: Of the 16 AL pitchers on the 2017 All-Star roster, zero made the roster this year.

    TRIBUTE

    All players wore a uniform patch with No. 45 to honor late Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs. Los Angeles teammates Mike Trout and Tommy La Stella switched their jerseys to Skaggs' number, and there was a pregame moment of silence.

    ''I felt him out there with me,'' Trout said. ''To be able to represent him and what he meant to us on a stage like this is special.''

    UP NEXT

    The regular season resumes on Thursday night with one game, Houston at Texas. All teams are back in action Friday. ... Next year's All-Star Game is at Dodger Stadium for the first time since 1980.

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    Indians' Bieber wins All-Star MVP

    CLEVELAND (AP) Michael Brantley came back, took a well-deserved bow and delivered like always. Shane Bieber pitched a perfect inning and took home an MVP trophy and a shiny new pickup truck.

    Carlos Carrasco stood up to cancer.

    On an idyllic night for baseball, Cleveland connections shined brightest at the All-Star Game.

    Even Sandy Alomar Jr., whose storybook home run the last time the game was played at Progressive Field in 1997 made him an MVP and local legend, enjoyed another moment on the star-studded stage.

    And then Bieber matched him, winning MVP honors after striking out the side in the fifth as the AL staff combined for 16 strikeouts in a 4-3 win over the NL and returned pitching to prominence a night after Vladimir Guerrereo Jr., Pete Alonso and Joc Pederson knocked balls over Progressive Field's walls with stunning ease.

    ''It's an incredible feeling now, now that it's kind of sinking in,'' Bieber said. ''Just to be able to do it in front of the home crowd and my first All-Star Game is definitely not something I expected, especially being added to the game four or five days ago.''

    Bieber was a late All-Star injury replacement, only added Friday to give the Indians four representatives.

    The 23-year-old, who soared through Cleveland's minor league system and won 11 games as a rookie in 2018, showed a veteran's poise in the fifth when he fanned Chicago's Willson Contreras, Arizona's Ketel Marte and Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. in succession while protecting a 1-0 lead.

    The crowd chanted ''Let's Go Bieber,'' during his performance, and it's an anthem that will likely be heard each time he takes the mound going forward.

    ''Kind of stepped off the back of the mound after one of the pitches and wasn't totally able to look up and see everything, just because there was so much going on, but I heard everything and really soaked it all in,'' Bieber said. ''I can't really thank the fans enough for creating that moment for me and making it really special.''

    While Bieber's unexpected MVP put a perfect cap on Cleveland's magical night - in fact, he donated his hat to the Hall of Fame - Carrasco's appearance served as the most poignant moment.

    The 32-year-old was recently diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, and during Major League Baseball's ''Stand Up to Cancer'' campaign, Carrasco stood in the third-base coach's box, flanked by his teammates and Indians manager Terry Francona.

    Carrasco held a sign that read ''I Stand''' while Lindor's said: ''Cookie,'' the pitcher's nickname.

    ''When I saw him, it puts everything in perspective,'' said Boston manager Alex Cora, who guided the AL team. ''We get caught up in wins and losses and pennant races and all that stuff and rivalries, and then that happens. And there's more than baseball in life.

    ''And we're thinking and praying for him, his family and hopefully he can be back on the field sooner rather than later.''

    Brantley returned for the first time as a member of the Houston Astros, who were happy to sign the outfielder as a free agent last winter after the Indians let him walk after 10 seasons.

    He was greeted with a thunderous ovation during player introductions, stopping to squeeze Francona tightly before slapping hands with the rest of the AL squad.

    ''I was very emotional. I was trying to hold it together,'' Brantley said. ''To come back in front of these fans that I played for, for 10 years, I just want to say thank you for their support, thank you for that ovation. It means so much to me. It's going to last a lifetime.''

    Brantley heard an even bigger roar in the second inning with an RBI double off Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw for a 1-0 lead.

    Alomar, a member of Cleveland's coaching staff since 2010, caught a ceremonial first pitch from CC Sabathia, whose New York Yankees pinstripes will never completely cover his love for the Indians. He began his career in Cleveland, and it was only fitting the big left-hander got to say goodbye in his final season.

    Cora sent Sabathia to the mound in the ninth inning to talk to Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman before getting another standing ovation.

    ''He's one of the best pitchers in the big leagues for the last, what, 15 years,'' Cora said. ''The guy has won more than 250 games, 3,000 strikeouts. Everything started here in Cleveland. We all know he's going to retire, so we wanted to let everybody know who he is and I think it was a nice tribute.''

    And Cleveland's crowd also had its say, booing Cubs All-Stars Javier Baez and Kris Bryant, who crashed their World Series party in 2016.

    ''If I was a (Cleveland) fan, I'd boo us, too,'' Bryant said. ''It was a wacky World Series.''

    On this night, Cleveland celebrated its past, present and future.

    ''It's such a good, hard, gritty town,'' Bieber said. ''I can't say enough about how this All-Star Weekend and week has been run. I was talking to some guys and they said it's one of the better-run All-Star Games and weekends that they've been to. And those are guys that have been to three or four, five, six All-Star Games.''

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    The five best MLB betting trends for the first half of the season
    Rohit Ponnaiya

    Yasiel Puig and the Cincinnati Reds have come out firing in the first inning of games, but can that trend continue in the second half of the season?

    We're at the halfway point of the 2019 MLB season and certain betting trends are starting to stand out.

    Sure the Mariners are the best Over team in the majors and the Twins the most profitable moneyline pick: everybody and their grandmother knows about those trends by now (but feel free to keep hammering them like I am). But we've been digging into five of the more under-the-radar trends and MLB best bets that have dominated the first half of the MLB season, and let you know if you should fade or follow them after the All-Star break.

    CINCINNATI REDS First Team to Score: 47-31 in last 78 games

    When you consider the Cincy has been an underdog in 53 of its 87 games, betting on the Reds to score first or to lead after the first inning has been money in the bank.

    The Reds have led after the first inning in 33 of their 87 games, while trailing 22 times. Not only do the Reds score in the first inning in a major league-leading 37.93 percent of their games, but they also have the fourth-lowest opponent first-inning score percentage at 25.29.

    Even though the Reds 41-46 on the year, they've been the first team to score in 48 of their 87 games this season.

    Both of those numbers are even more impressive considering that Cincinnati didn't score in the first inning through its first nine games of the season, and opposing teams scored before they did in eight of those contests.
    FADE OR FOLLOW?

    This is more than just a short-term trend. That first inning scored percentage of 42.3 percent over their last 78 games is very impressive. The Reds rank first in the majors in runs scored per game in the first inning (0.84) and have the third-fewest runs allowed (0.41).

    Cincinatti has an effective pitching rotation with its starters owning an ERA of 3.60 (fourth best in the majors) and a batting average allowed of .232. While the Reds bat just .235 overall, they have a BA of .309 and a slugging percentage of .582 during the first inning.

    For whatever reason, the Reds are simply a much better team in the early going than over the length of a full game but are still usually priced as underdogs. It seems like sportsbooks still haven't adjusted to this trend, so keep betting it until the wheels fall off.


    OAKLAND ATHLETICS First Five Innings: 50-29-7 in last 86 games

    Only two teams in the majors - the Yankees and Dodgers - have a better record this season through the first five innings of games. However, those clubs tend to be big favorites most of the time, so betting on the A's in the first five innings has been far more profitable, especially at home where they are 28-12-4 in their last 44 contests.
    FADE OR FOLLOW?

    Generally if teams play very well through the first five innings, it's because they have excellent starting pitching and strong early-game hitting. Oakland starters have an ERA of 4.17 and BAA of .242 which is good but not exceptional, and those numbers will take a hit with Frankie Montas (9-2, 2.70 ERA) suspended until the end of the regular season. On offense, the A's generate 3.00 runs per game (2.75 at home) through the first five innings which once again, is good but not great.

    Their schedule has also been relatively easy through the first half of the season, but will get tougher the rest of the way, with 11 games against the Astros, 10 against the Rangers, six against the Yankees, four against the Twins, and three on the road against the Cubs. All those teams have been some of the best squads in the majors through the first five innings. I'm fading this trend.


    SHANE BIEBER First Five Innings Under: 14-3-1 in last 18 starts

    Last year it was all about "deGrom Day" with the first five innings Under cashing in on the overwhelming majority of Jacob deGrom's starts for the Mets. This year it's "Bieber Fever", where the first five innings Under has hit in 82 percent of Cleveland right-hander Shane Bieber's last 18 starts. OK, we'll work on a new name for this one.

    Much like deGrom last year, this situation is the perfect storm of a good pitcher (Bieber is 8-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.01 WHIP) throwing for a team providing little run support (Cleveland averages just 4.50 runs per game). Bieber's confidence should be soaring after winning the MVP award in the All-Star game.
    FADE OR FOLLOW?

    Oddly enough, despite the Under hitting so often in Bieber's starts, books keep setting totals higher and higher. In his first three starts of the season the O/U was seven or 7.5. In his next six starts the O/U was set at eight or 8.5 five times. And over his last nine starts, that total has jumped to nine or higher for each contest. With totals rising, keep taking the Under especially through the first five innings.


    PITTSBURGH PIRATES O/U: 29-12-2 at home

    At home, Pittsburgh has a surprisingly strong offense averaging 5.21 runs per game - good for ninth-best in the majors. However, the Pirates also allow 5.77 runs per game at PNC Park (mostly just because their pitching stinks). That combination of good offense and bad pitching in a ballpark considered pitcher-friendly has resulted in Overs hitting in 70.7 percent of games at PNC.

    The Over has been an even better bet when they're the underdog at home, cashing 80 percent of the time (16-4-1).
    FADE OR FOLLOW?

    Sportsbooks seem to be adjusting to this trend and although the Pirates are still 7-1 O/U over their last eight home games, totals have been creeping steadily higher since the beginning of the season. Through their first 16 home games the total was installed at eight or lower in every game. However, over their last 19 contests, the O/U has been at least nine.

    Pitchers Joe Musgrove and Jordan Lyles got off to great starts early in the season for the Pirates but have since reverted back to mediocrity and the totals have moved accordingly. With scoring up across the majors I'm going to keep backing this trend.


    NEW YORK YANKEES Runline 28-10 in division

    The New York Yankees have been an excellent runline bet all season (baseball's version of the pointspread), converting on the runline 59.1 percent of the time. Against divisional opponents that line just gets silly though, hitting on the run line in 73.7 percent of games. Interesting enough when they play against teams outside of their division they are under .500 on the runline (24-26). The Bronx Bombers are 41-29 as runline favorites (-1.5) which usually sees plus-money or low-cost vig.
    FADE OR FOLLOW?

    As more of the Yankees lineup starts to get healthy, this might look like an interesting trend to keep playing. But don't forget that not all divisional opponents are the same. The Yankees have already played the worst team in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles 12 times, going 10-2 on the runline against them. They're only scheduled to play Baltimore seven times during the second half of the season.

    On the flip side, they've played the Red Sox only seven times so far and will have to play them 12 more times. While the Yankees do get to play against the woeful Blues Jays 13 more times, keep in mind that New York is just 2-4 on the runline against the Jays so far this year.

    I'm fading this one, well unless they're playing the O's.

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    TOP HOME MONEY TEAM (based on $100 wager per home game)

    Rangers (29-17) $1675

    Honorable mention
    Dodgers (37-12) $1636
    WhiteSox (25-20) $911
    Twins (28-15) $731


    TOP ROAD MONEY TEAM (based on $100 wager per road game)

    Twins (28-18) $902

    Honorable mention
    Braves (26-18) $871
    D'backs (26-23) $763
    Pirates (22-24) $664


    TOP HOMER UMPIRE (min. 10 games behind home plate)

    Bruce Dreckman 13-3

    Honorable mention
    Adrian Johnson 13-4
    Chad Fairchild 12-4
    Manny Gonzalez 11-4
    Paul Nauert 11-4


    TOP ROADIE UMPIRE (min. 10 games behind home plate)

    Todd Tichenor 12-6

    Honorable mention
    Dana DeMuth 11-6
    Mike Everitt 12-7
    Mark Wegner 10-6
    Mike Muchlinski 10-6

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