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Thread: Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/9

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2004

    Default Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/9

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, July 9

    Good Luck on day #190 of 2019!

    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    Over/under win totals for SEC East football teams

    — Florida 9 (under -$180)

    — Georgia 11 (under -$160)

    — Kentucky 6.5 (over -$125)

    — Missouri 8 (over -$150)

    — South Carolina 5.5 (over -$155)

    — Tennessee 6.5

    — Vanderbilt 5 (under -$200)


    Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: ACC football knowledge……

    Boston College- Went 7-5 or 7-6 five of last six years; since 2014, Eagles are 11-2-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Last two years, BC is 10-3-1 vs spread coming off win. Junior QB Brown already has 22 career starts; their top four rushers are all back.

    Clemson- Tigers won 10+ games eight years in a row; they won four of last five bowls, with three of those wins by 27+ points. Clemson covered 15 of last 19 neutral field games; they’ve been an underdog once the last four years.

    Duke- Blue Devils won last three bowls, scoring 44-36-56 points; they’ll have a new, more mobile QB this year, but Cutcliffe is a QB guru. Last four years, Duke is 12-19-1 vs spread in ACC games. Average total in Duke’s last five bowls: 79.0.

    Florida State- Seminoles are 12-13 SU the last two years, after going 59-9 from 2012-16. FSU is -17 in turnovers the last two years, 8-12 vs spread in last 20 home games, 9-13-2 in last 24 games as a favorite. Average total in FSU’s last five bowls: 66.8.

    Georgia Tech- Collins went 15-10 at Temple; changing from option attack to more traditional offense can be dicey. Tech has only 9 of 22 starters back, with an inexperienced offensive line. Opening at Clemson will be a reality check, but Collins is a good coach.

    Louisville- Cardinals went 2-10 LY after eight winning years in a row, so Petrino got the boot and Satterfield comes in from Appalachian State (47-16). Last three years, Louisville is 12-26 vs spread (1-11 LY), 3-11 in non-conference games.

    Miami- Mark Richt went 26-13 in three years; not good enough. Defensive-minded Manny Diaz is the new coach; he has a new QB, inexperience on OL. Since 2012, Miami is 4-9-1 as road underdogs. From 2015-17, they were +34 in turnovers, were -1 LY.

    North Carolina- Mack Brown was on TV last five years; now he is back on sidelines after UNC went 5-17 last two years under the cloud of an academic scandal. Tar Heels lot last three bowls; their last bowl win was 2013. UNC will be breaking in a new QB this year.

    NC State- Wolfpack had five straight winning seasons, went 11-5 in ACC last two years, after going 17-31 the six years before that. State has a new QB and only two starters back on OL, so the offense (4 starters back overall) could take a step back this year.

    Pittsburgh- Pitt lost last four bowls, with pair of 1-point losses; their last bowl win was in 2014, over Bowling Green (30-27, +6.5). Under Narduzzi, Panthers are 12-6 vs spread as road underdogs, 5-10-1 as home favorites.

    Syracuse- Orangemen had their first winning season (10-3) in five years LY; they won their last four bowls (were favored in only one of those), with last bowl loss in 2004. Under Babers, Syracuse is 9-3 vs spread as a road underdog.

    Virginia- LY’s 8-5 record was first winning season in seven years; they even pitched a shutout in their bowl game. Since 2014, Cavaliers are 15-7 vs spread outside the ACC- they start couple of sophs, three juniors on OL, so they’ll be very solid the next two years.

    Virginia Tech- In three years under Fuente, Hokies are 9-5 vs spread as home favorites, 7-13 vs spread in all their other games; they’ve got 10 starters back on defense TY. QB Willis has 20 career starts; six of their top seven rushers are back.

    Wake Forest- Deacons are 22-17 SU last three years, winning bowls all three years while scoring 42 ppg. Wake is 4-0-1 vs spread in lat five bowls; they covered 10 of last 13 games as a road underdog; last four years, they’re 16-8-1 vs spread coming off a loss.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    2019 MLB All-Star Game

    This year's All-Star Game is Tuesday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Here's what you need to know about the teams and all the festivities. Rosters, schedules, analysis

    Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics (No. 1 seed, stepping in for the injured Christian Yelich); Pete Alonso, New York Mets (2); Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates (3); Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (4); Joc Pederson, Dodgers (5); Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (6); Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians (7); Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (8)

    It's going to be hard to top the past two Home Run Derbies -- Aaron Judge winning 2017 while dueling Giancarlo Stanton with a barrage of long-range missiles, and then Harper pulling out a dramatic, last-second victory over Kyle Schwarber at his home park -- but this field is loaded and should provide some fun energy with all the young guys.

    Also, for the first time there is the added incentive of $1 million going to the winner, as the overall pool for the participants increased from $725,000 to $2.5 million.

    No wonder Alonso has actually been practicing for the event. The rookie slugger has the opportunity to basically double his 2019 salary.

    Bregman and Pederson have participated in previous Home Run Derbies (Pederson lost in the 2015 final to Todd Frazier), so that might help them. Yelich is the first reigning MVP winner to participate since Albert Pujols in 2009. Acuña and Guerrero give us two of the most exciting young players in the game, and the hometown fans will root on Santana.

    Bell, however, might be the favorite (he and Yelich were the top picks in Vegas, before Yelich pulled out), as his raw power might top even Alonso's. His seven home runs of 440-plus feet lead the majors, and he has cranked two into the Allegheny River beyond the right-field stands at PNC Park -- becoming just the fourth player in PNC history to reach the river on the fly.

    Tuesday: All-Star Game
    Will Mike Trout add to the success he's already enjoyed in the All-Star Game? Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP Photo

    7:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
    2018 MVP: Alex Bregman, Astros

    Nine innings, doesn't count. The past two All-Star Games both went 10 innings. The AL has won six in a row (after winning 12 in a row with one tie from 1997 to 2009).

    The last time All-Star festivities were held in Cleveland was 1997, when Randy Johnson started against Greg Maddux. The AL starting lineup featured six future Hall of Famers (Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Cal Ripken, Ivan Rodriguez, Roberto Alomar) plus Alex Rodriguez. The NL starting lineup featured five future Hall of Famers (Maddux, Craig Biggio, Tony Gwynn, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell) plus Barry Bonds and Larry Walker. There were eight more future Hall of Famers on the benches, plus Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.

    The first four NL pitchers were Maddux, Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown and Pedro Martinez. Now that is an All-Star pitching staff. Indians catcher Sandy Alomar played the hero for the hometown fans with a two-run homer in the seventh inning off Giants lefty Shawn Estes, giving the AL a 3-1 win.

    Players to watch

    • The NL starting outfield of Yelich, Acuña and Cody Bellinger is third-youngest outfield by average age in All-Star history, trailing only the 1957 NL trio of Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Frank Robinson and the 1940 AL trio of Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio and Charlie Keller. Yelich and Bellinger, battling for MVP honors, both head into the break with at least 30 home runs.

    • Mike Trout, Angels. The two-time All-Star MVP might be having his best season yet. He's 7-for-15 with five extra-base hits (including two home runs) in All-Star games.

    • Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers. The likely NL starter, Ryu is 10-3 with a 1.73 ERA. He has allowed more than two runs in a start just twice all season -- one game with three runs (but just one earned) and one bad seven-run outing at Coors Field in which he allowed three home runs. He has walked just 10 batters in 109 innings. He's joined on the NL roster by teammates Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, making the Dodgers just the fifth team in 20 years with three starting pitchers on an All-Star roster.

    • Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs. Last year's NL MVP runner-up started the 2018 game at second base but starts at shortstop this year. He joins Bobby Grich and Granny Hamner as the only players to start All-Star Games at both shortstop and second base.

    • Justin Verlander, Astros. He started in 2012 and could be the AL starter seven years later, as he's 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA and has held batters to a .162 average. After finishing as the Cy Young runner-up in 2018 and 2016, he's intent on adding a bookend to his 2011 trophy.

    • Francisco Lindor, Indians. He isn't starting, but he'll play in front of the hometown fans. And maybe like Alomar in 1997, he walks away with MVP honors.[/SIZE]

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    National League starters

    C -- Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

    1B -- Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

    2B -- Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

    SS -- Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

    3B -- Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

    OF -- Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

    OF -- Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

    OF -- Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves

    National League reserves

    C -- Yasmani Grandal, Milwaukee Brewers

    C -- J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies

    1B -- Pete Alonso, New York Mets

    1B -- Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates

    2B -- Mike Moustakas, Milwaukee Brewers

    SS -- Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals

    SS -- Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies

    3B -- Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals

    3B -- Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

    OF -- Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

    OF -- David Dahl, Colorado Rockies

    OF -- Jeff McNeil, New York Mets

    National League pitchers

    RHP -- Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

    RHP -- Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

    RHP -- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

    RHP -- Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks

    LHP -- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

    LHP -- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers

    RHP -- Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

    RHP -- Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves

    RHP -- Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

    LHP -- Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers

    LHP -- Will Smith, San Francisco Giants

    RHP -- Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres

    x -- injured

    American League starters

    C -- Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

    1B -- Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians

    2B -- DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

    SS -- Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins

    3B -- Alex Bregman, Houston Astros

    OF -- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

    OF -- George Springer, Houston Astros

    OF -- Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

    DH -- Hunter Pence, Texas Rangers -- x

    American League reserves

    C -- James McCann, Chicago White Sox

    1B -- Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

    1B -- Daniel Vogelbach, Seattle Mariners

    2B -- Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

    2B -- Tommy La Stella, Los Angeles Angels -- x

    2B -- Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (replaces La Stella) -- x

    2B -- Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees (replaces Lowe)

    SS -- Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

    SS -- Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (replaces Pence)

    3B -- Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics

    OF -- Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

    OF -- Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays

    OF -- Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers

    DH -- J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

    American League pitchers

    RHP -- Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

    RHP -- Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox

    LHP -- John Means, Baltimore Orioles

    LHP -- Mike Minor, Texas Rangers

    RHP -- Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays

    RHP -- Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins -- x

    RHP -- Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

    RHP -- Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

    RHP -- Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins (replaces Odorizzi)

    LHP -- Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees

    RHP -- Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers

    LHP -- Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians

    RHP -- Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros

    x -- injured

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    2019 MLB All-Star Game betting picks and predictions: Plenty of pop at the plate for NL vs AL

    The American League has held a six-year stranglehold on the MLB All-Star Game since snapping a three-year winning streak by the National League in 2013.

    The MLB All-Star Game is the only show in town for baseball bettors Tuesday night, with the American and National Leagues doing battle at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio (7:30 p.m. ET).

    We dive into the odds for the MLB All-Star Game and break down the best bets and top predictions for the Mid-Summer Classic, from quick-paying plays, top props, and the moneyline and Over/Under.


    Unlike most All-Star events around the sporting world, the MLB showcase isn’t bloated with an outpouring of offense. The American and National Leagues have played some low-scoring tight contests in recent years, and that competitiveness starts with the first pitch.

    Generally, the respective managers will look to their top starter to open the game, and in the case of the All-Star Game, that means the best of the best: Top Gun style. With those elite aces on the mound to open the ASG, it’s no surprise the past six Mid-Summer Classics have produced a total of just five runs in the first innings (three of those coming in 2014). The past two All-Star Games, the AL and NL standouts have combined for a goose egg on the scoreboard and the 2013 game also featured a scoreless opening frame.

    Astros starter Justin Verlander is first up for the AL, while Dodgers ace Hyun-jin Ryu gets the honors for the NL. Verlander has a 3.32 ERA in opening innings this season, but hasn't allowed a first-inning run in his last three starts. Ryu boasts a 3.71 first-inning ERA and blanked the Padres in the first inning of his previous start.

    PREDICTION: Under 0.5 runs first inning


    While low-scoring first innings have been the trend in MLB All-Star Games, so have uneventful first-five-innings spans. Over the past six seasons, the first five innings of action have averaged 3.33 runs, and four of those events had three or fewer runs scored.

    All-Star team managers are still working with some elite starters through the opening five innings, but we have seen an uptick in scoring in the first half of the 2019 schedule, especially in terms of power.

    Both lineups are loaded with pop at the plate, with the American League starting lineup totaling 164 home runs (three players with 20-plus HRs) and the National League lineup touting 185 homers (NL has seven players with 20-plus HRs) – give or take if MLB home run leader Christian Yelich (31) plays or not.

    The starting lineups will likely get two at-bats before managers start swapping in reserves, which means plenty of power-hitting potential in the early innings.

    PREDICTION: Over 4.5 runs first five innings


    As measured above, the American League doesn’t pack the same punch at the plate as its Senior Circuit foes, but does have a deeper collection of pure hitters on its All-Star roster.

    Three of the top four leaders in total hits this season are featured among the AL All-Stars (but not Boston’s Rafael Devers – glaring ASG snub), including major-league hit leader Whit Merrifield of Kansas City coming off the bench as a reserve. Houston’s Michael Brantley, who ranks No. 7 in hits, is also among the American League starting lineup.

    The MLB All-Star Game averaged 14 total hits between 2010 and 2015, but that jumped in the past three years, with 18 hits in 2016, 17 hits in 2017 and 20 hits in last July’s Mid-Summer Classic. The American League was responsible for 13 of those hits in 2018 and will rely on getting guys on base and advancing those runners more than the NL on Tuesday night.

    PREDICTION: American League Over 8.5 hits

    BONUS PROP PREDICTION: If you’re looking for a tasty flier, you could take “Yes” on the extra innings prop at +650. The current moneyline has this game as a pick ’em, and the previous two ASGs have gone into extra frames.


    Last year’s All-Star Game went Over the 7-run total, thanks to a busy final three innings in which the teams combine for seven runs and forced the game into extra innings, tacking on an added four runs in those two bonus frames for an 8-6 win for the Junior Circuit.

    Traditionally, the seventh, eighth and ninth innings have been relatively quiet. Before the 2018 ASG, the previous seven Mid-Summer Classics produced a total of just six runs in the final three frames, and four of those runs came in 2015.

    However, measuring up past All-Star Game results doesn’t hold much water when looking at 2019. So far, this MLB season has produced the highest scoring rate (9.6 total runs per game) since 2007 (9.6) and 2006 (9.72). A good part of that uptick in production has been the explosion in power hitting, namely the home run rate.

    Major League Baseball is producing 2.74 home runs per game in the first half of the 2019 schedule, which is the highest home run rate ever and on pace to break the 2018 record rate of 2.52. The next highest home run rate came in 2000 (2.34) – smack dab right in the middle of the steroid era.

    Plenty of the bats responsible for those rising home run numbers are stepping into the box Tuesday night.

    PREDICTION: Over 8.5 runs


    The American League has held a six-year stranglehold on the MLB All-Star Game since snapping a three-year winning streak by the National League in 2013. Home-field advantage has had little to do with that success, as 2019 is the first time the All-Star Game has been played in the AL park since 2014.

    The Mid-Summer Classic has been a hotly contested showcase during that six-year run, with the previous two games going to extra innings and the average margin of victory in those ASGs sitting at 2.16 in favor of the AL.

    The National League holds an 89-73 advantage in interleague action this season, but there are some big guns missing from the NL roster: Washington starter Max Scherzer and third baseman Anthony Rendon. The National League could also be without the massive bat of Yelich, who withdrew from the Home Run Derby due to back issues.

    Six-year steak aside, the American League gets the nod in 2019.

    PREDICTION: American League -110

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004



    Tuesday, July 9

    National League @ American League

    Game 945-946
    July 9, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    National League
    (Ryu) 16.466
    American League
    (Verlander) 14.945
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    National League
    by 1 1/2
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    American League
    8 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    National League
    (-110); Over

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    MLB Mid-Season Awards

    TOP OVER TEAM (sorted by Over %)
    Dodgers 58-32-4

    Honorable mention
    Pirates 53-33-3, Mets 47-33-10, Red Sox 51-36-3

    TOP UNDER TEAM (sorted by Under %)
    Reds 54-30-3

    Honorable mention
    Rays 46-37-8, Astros 47-38-5, Indians 47-38-3



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