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Thread: Tuesday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 7/9

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    Default Tuesday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 7/9

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, July 9

    Good Luck on day #190 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    Over/under win totals for SEC East football teams

    — Florida 9 (under -$180)

    — Georgia 11 (under -$160)

    — Kentucky 6.5 (over -$125)

    — Missouri 8 (over -$150)

    — South Carolina 5.5 (over -$155)

    — Tennessee 6.5

    — Vanderbilt 5 (under -$200)


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: ACC football knowledge……

    Boston College- Went 7-5 or 7-6 five of last six years; since 2014, Eagles are 11-2-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Last two years, BC is 10-3-1 vs spread coming off win. Junior QB Brown already has 22 career starts; their top four rushers are all back.

    Clemson- Tigers won 10+ games eight years in a row; they won four of last five bowls, with three of those wins by 27+ points. Clemson covered 15 of last 19 neutral field games; they’ve been an underdog once the last four years.

    Duke- Blue Devils won last three bowls, scoring 44-36-56 points; they’ll have a new, more mobile QB this year, but Cutcliffe is a QB guru. Last four years, Duke is 12-19-1 vs spread in ACC games. Average total in Duke’s last five bowls: 79.0.

    Florida State- Seminoles are 12-13 SU the last two years, after going 59-9 from 2012-16. FSU is -17 in turnovers the last two years, 8-12 vs spread in last 20 home games, 9-13-2 in last 24 games as a favorite. Average total in FSU’s last five bowls: 66.8.

    Georgia Tech- Collins went 15-10 at Temple; changing from option attack to more traditional offense can be dicey. Tech has only 9 of 22 starters back, with an inexperienced offensive line. Opening at Clemson will be a reality check, but Collins is a good coach.

    Louisville- Cardinals went 2-10 LY after eight winning years in a row, so Petrino got the boot and Satterfield comes in from Appalachian State (47-16). Last three years, Louisville is 12-26 vs spread (1-11 LY), 3-11 in non-conference games.

    Miami- Mark Richt went 26-13 in three years; not good enough. Defensive-minded Manny Diaz is the new coach; he has a new QB, inexperience on OL. Since 2012, Miami is 4-9-1 as road underdogs. From 2015-17, they were +34 in turnovers, were -1 LY.

    North Carolina- Mack Brown was on TV last five years; now he is back on sidelines after UNC went 5-17 last two years under the cloud of an academic scandal. Tar Heels lot last three bowls; their last bowl win was 2013. UNC will be breaking in a new QB this year.

    NC State- Wolfpack had five straight winning seasons, went 11-5 in ACC last two years, after going 17-31 the six years before that. State has a new QB and only two starters back on OL, so the offense (4 starters back overall) could take a step back this year.

    Pittsburgh- Pitt lost last four bowls, with pair of 1-point losses; their last bowl win was in 2014, over Bowling Green (30-27, +6.5). Under Narduzzi, Panthers are 12-6 vs spread as road underdogs, 5-10-1 as home favorites.

    Syracuse- Orangemen had their first winning season (10-3) in five years LY; they won their last four bowls (were favored in only one of those), with last bowl loss in 2004. Under Babers, Syracuse is 9-3 vs spread as a road underdog.

    Virginia- LY’s 8-5 record was first winning season in seven years; they even pitched a shutout in their bowl game. Since 2014, Cavaliers are 15-7 vs spread outside the ACC- they start couple of sophs, three juniors on OL, so they’ll be very solid the next two years.

    Virginia Tech- In three years under Fuente, Hokies are 9-5 vs spread as home favorites, 7-13 vs spread in all their other games; they’ve got 10 starters back on defense TY. QB Willis has 20 career starts; six of their top seven rushers are back.

    Wake Forest- Deacons are 22-17 SU last three years, winning bowls all three years while scoring 42 ppg. Wake is 4-0-1 vs spread in lat five bowls; they covered 10 of last 13 games as a road underdog; last four years, they’re 16-8-1 vs spread coming off a loss.

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    WNBA Betting Recap - 7/2-7/8
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes (Tuesday, July 2 through Monday, July 8)

    -- Underdogs went 6-5 straight up (SU)
    -- Underdogs went 8-3 against the spread (ATS)
    -- Road teams went 6-5 SU
    -- Road teams went 8-3 ATS
    -- The 'under' went 7-4

    Season Totals To Date

    -- Favorites are 47-37 straight up (SU)
    -- Underdogs 50-31-3 against the spread (ATS)
    -- Home teams are 49-35 SU
    -- Road teams are 44-37-3 ATS
    -- The 'under' is 50-34

    Team Betting Notes

    -- Atlanta (3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS) picked up a surprising road win over the defending WNBA champions in Seattle (8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) on Friday night, and they lost a narrow game in Phoenix (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) on Sunday. The Dream has struggled without star F Angel McCoughtry (knee), but they have covered back-to-back games, and they're a respectable 4-3 ATS over the past seven.

    -- As far as the Storm is concerned, they have really struggled without stars Breanna Stewart (Achilles') and Sue Bird (knee) this season, and several other complementary options out of the lineup. They have dropped three in a row, and failed to cover in each. They have scored 67 or fewer points in three of the past five, and five of the past eight. As such, they're a favorite at the betting window for total bettors, with the 'under' cashing in seven of the past nine.

    -- For the Mercury, they're on an upward trajectory after a slow start. Phoenix has won four of the past five, and defense has been key to the turnaround. The under is 3-0 in the past three, and 5-2 over the past seven outings, as well as 3-0 in the past three on the road.

    -- Chicago (7-7 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) has been playing so-so ball lately, as they entered Sunday's game against Dallas (4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS) on a four-game skid. A win over the last-place Wings isn't exactly a turnaround, but it's a start. They have covered two in a row for the first time since four straight covers from June 9-19.

    -- For the Wings, they have dropped and failed to cover in two in a row, but surprisingly it's their first time failing to cover consecutive games since an 0-3 ATS run from June 7-13. They have kept games surprisingly close despite their losing ways. The under is 4-1 over their past five, too, and 11-2 in their 13 games overall.

    -- Connecticut (9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS) continues its nosedive after a 9-1 start to the season. They have dropped four straight dating back to June 23, and they have failed to cover in five in a row. A lack of scoring has been the problem, as the Sun is averaging just 69.5 PPG over the past four after scoring 81.1 PPG in the first 10 outings.

    -- Indiana (6-9 SU, 8-7 ATS) has matched its win total from 2018, which is fairly impressive. However, they have benefited by a frontloaded schedule with Dallas appearing on the early slate three times. They're done with the Wings now, going 3-0 SU/ATS against Dallas, and 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS against everyone else.

    -- Las Vegas (9-5 SU, 5-9 ATS) routed defensively-challened New York (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) on the road, winning for the third straight game, and fifth time in the past six. The Aces have scored 90 or more points in each of the past three outings, a key to their success. Suddenly, they're looking like a WNBA championship contender like they were picked to be during the preseason after their acquisition of Liz Cambage.

    -- Los Angeles (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) enters the new week with victories in a season-high three straight games, and they're also on a season-best 3-0 ATS run while hitting the 'over' in four in a row. L.A. has registered at least 86 points on offense in three in a row after failing to hit the mark in each of their first four, and nine of their first 11.

    -- Minnesota (8-6 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) won and covered each of their two games in the completed week, topping Atlanta at home by 17 and winning by three on the road in Connecticut as an eight-point 'dog. The Lynx have covered three in a row as an underdog, but it was their first outright win in four tries as a 'dog.

    -- The Liberty rank dead-last in scoring defense, allowing 82.8 PPG. However, their lack of scoring lately has resulted in four unders in the past five outings.

    -- Washington (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) had their season-best five-game winning streak snapped in L.A., running into a hot Sparks side. The Mystics are still 5-1 ATS over the past six outings and 6-3 ATS as a favorite.

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    WNBA
    Long Sheet

    Tuesday, July 9


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LOS ANGELES (7 - 6) at DALLAS (4 - 9) - 7/9/2019, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LOS ANGELES is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1997.
    LOS ANGELES is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    LOS ANGELES is 148-191 ATS (-62.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
    LOS ANGELES is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons.
    LOS ANGELES is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 6-1 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 4-3 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    WNBA

    Tuesday, July 9


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Los Angeles Sparks
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
    Los Angeles is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Los Angeles is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
    Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Los Angeles's last 11 games when playing Dallas
    Los Angeles is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Dallas Wings
    Dallas is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games
    Dallas is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 13 games
    Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
    Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Los Angeles
    Dallas is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
    Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by Udog; 07-09-2019 at 10:11 AM.

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    LOS ANGELES SPARKS AT DALLAS WINGS (+6.5, 154.5)

    It took a little while, but the Sparks seem to have found their footing in Derek Fisher’s new offense. Los Angeles enjoyed a three-game home stand, winning all three contests while averaging almost 93 points over those victories.

    A new coach and an inconsistent start to the 2019 season – in which the Sparks played without superstar Candace Parker for the first seven games of the schedule – left L.A. to average just 75.4 points through the first 10 games, shooting a dismal 39.9 percent from the field.

    The team has connected on 46.8 percent of its looks during this three-game winning streak but hits the road for Tuesday’s early wake-up in Dallas, which is being played at 10 a.m. PT back in California. The Sparks put up only 76.1 points on 40.4 percent shooting away from home and have managed a 2-4-1 record against the spread as visitors.

    The Wings are among the bottom teams in the WNBA but have defended home court with teeth, covering in five of their seven contests inside the College Park Center. Dallas plays a methodical pace as a host (90.69) which should slow down any momentum L.A. builds on offense, allowing a league-low 70.9 points per game at home.

    The Wings also have forward Glory Johnson back in the lineup for the second straight game, after she was away playing in Europe. That helps shore up Dallas' interior defense, which is allowing only 31.7 points in the paint per game.

    Los Angeles may extend its winning streak, but the Wings won’t make it easy. Dallas has always played L.A. well, owning a 26-8-2 ATS record in their last 36 head-to-head matchups, including a 13-4 ATS mark versus the Sparks at home.

    PREDICTION: Dallas +6.5

    Sunday’s pick: 1-1
    Season to date: 33-22

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    WNBA
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, July 9



    Los Angeles @ Dallas

    Game 653-654
    July 9, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Los Angeles
    114.785
    Dallas
    102.186
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Los Angeles
    by 12 1/2
    149
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Los Angeles
    by 5 1/2
    153
    Dunkel Pick:
    Los Angeles
    (-5 1/2); Under

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