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Thread: Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/8

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    Default Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/8

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, July 8

    Good Luck on day #189 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Over/under win totals for SEC West football teams

    — Alabama 11.5 (under -$300)

    — Arkansas (under -$160)

    — Auburn (over -$125)

    — LSU 9 (under -$150)

    — Ole Miss 4.5 (over -$1705)

    — Mississippi State 7.5 (over-$130)

    — Texas A&M 7.5 (over -$115)


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's Den: AFC trends to think about this season……

    Baltimore Ravens- Over last decade, Ravens are 9-16-1 vs spread when a home favorite in a division game.

    Buffalo Bills- Last three years, over is 18-6 in Buffalo’s home games.

    Cincinnati Bengals- Over last decade, Bengals are 20-8-2 vs spread as an underdog of 3 or fewer points.

    Cleveland Browns- Since 2010, Browns are 7-14-2 vs spread as a home favorite.

    Denver Broncos- Over last decade, Denver is 10-19-1 vs spread in AFC West home games.

    Houston Texans- Texans won their last four season openers, scoring 32.3 ppg; under O’Brien, they’re 17-22-1 vs spread as an underdog, 22-14-1 as a favorite.

    Indianapolis Colts- Over last decade, over is 32-23 in Colts’ games on natural grass, under is 57-46-2 in their games on artificial turf.

    Jacksonville Jaguars- Jaguars’ turnover ratios the last four years:
    -14 (5-11), +10 (10-6), -16 (3-13), -10 (5-11)

    Jaguars are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as a home underdog.

    Kansas City Chiefs- Since 2013, under is 31-17 in Kansas City home games.

    Los Angeles Chargers- Over last decade, they’re 9-21 vs spread in AFC West home games; Bolts are 6-9 vs spread in their home games in Carson the last two years- this is their last year there, before the new dome opens in LA.

    Miami Dolphins- in three years under Gase, Miami was 7-3-1 vs spread as a home underdog, 7-15 vs spread as a road underdog. Over last decade, Dolphins are 8-19 vs spread when laying points at home against a non-division opponent.

    New England Patriots- Last four years, under is 20-11-1 in New England road games. Since 2015, Patriots are 28-13-3 vs spread as a home favorite, 9-5-2 in AFC East games, 19-8-1 in all the other games.

    New Jersey Jets- Over last decade, underdogs are 22-8 vs spread in Jets’ AFC East home games. Since 2011, Jets are 8-18-2 vs spread as a road underdog outside their division.

    Oakland Raiders- Last two years, Silver and Black is 3-12-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Over last decade, they’re 22-33-3 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

    Pittsburgh Steelers- Since 2012, Steelers are 15-7-1 vs spread as a road underdog; they’ve won SU in Week 17 the last 11 years (7-4 vs spread, 0-3 last three years).

    Tennessee Titans- Since 2011, Titans are 5-17-2 vs spread as an underdog of 3 or fewer points. Over last decade, Tennessee is 8-21-1 vs spread in AFC South road games.

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    MLB Home Run Derby odds, predictions and picks: Why you should bet on Josh Bell
    Rohit Ponnaiya

    Josh Bell has clubbed 27 home runs this season and his ability to hit from either side of the plate will help his chances of winning the Home Run Derby title on Monday night.

    What's more entertaining than watching some of the biggest names in Major League Baseball launch moon shots into the stands? Absolutely nothing, especially on a Monday with no other sports to distract you (yep not even WNBA). The MLB All-Star break begins with the annual home run derby at 8:00 p.m. ET on Monday night, and once again Vegas is taking wagers on the event.

    You can bet on who will win the entire competition and there are odds on who will win each of the first round matchups as well. Pirates slugger Josh Bell is the favorite but don't count out rookies Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Pete Alonso who are close behind him.

    Last year's winner of the event (and current MLB home run leader) Christian Yelich dropped out of the competition on Sunday due to a back injury and was replaced by Matt Chapman. We break down the odds for this slugfest and give our best picks and predictions.

    THE BALLPARK

    This year's venue, Progressive Field in Cleveland, favors left-handed power hitters thanks to a 19-foot wall running from left to left-center field and that height dropping to nine feet from center field to the right field pole. The longest home run ever hit at the field was a 511-foot monster of a shot by Jim Thome in 1999.

    Left Field - 325 feet
    Left-Center - 375 feet
    Center Field - 410 feet
    Right-Center - 370 feet
    Right Field - 325 feet

    WEATHER REPORT

    Monday is expected to be a beautiful day in Cleveland with temperatures peaking in the high 70's and cooling to the mid and low 70's by the time the competition is underway.

    It shouldn't be too hot or too humid so the balls might not travel as much as last year but don't count out that pesky breeze from nearby Lake Erie. There's expected to be a decent wind blowing and it could either push balls back or help carry them out depending on the direction.

    Here's the breakdown of the sluggers:

    Josh Bell +350

    Bell is the odds-on favorite and for good reason, he's a power hitting switch-hitter who can absolutely mash. 20 of his 27 home runs this season have come from the left side of the plate. He pulls the ball at a rate of 43.2 percent and his hard contact rate of 49.2 percent is better than anybody else in this competition. His average exit velocity of 93.9 mph also ranks first on the list of this year competitors.

    Bell was the front-runner on my list and that was before Yelich dropped out. At +350 he still offers solid value so don't hesitate to take him if, like me, you see everything lining up for the big man.

    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +450

    Vladdy Jr. has fewer home runs than anyone else on this list but he's practically baseball royalty with his father winning the derby back in 2007. Junior has incredible power and while he is a right-handed batter, the launch angle that you can see in the video below proves that he should still send plenty of balls over that towering left field fence.

    That said, Guerrero is still just a rookie and besides the freak named Aaron Judge, rookies rarely do well in this competition. Since 1991, when the Home Run Derby started to resemble what it is now, only seven rookies have participated. Five of them were eliminated in the opening round, with Judge and Joc Pederson the only ones to advance.

    Joc Pederson +500

    Speaking of Joc Pederson, he might not be the most exciting name on this list, but he's got more than a few things going for him: he's left-handed, he has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph and, most importantly, he competed in the event before. He finished in second-place at the 2015 derby and that experience could prove invaluable.

    Pete Alonso +500

    The other rookie at the event, Alonso has been an absolute revelation for the Mets with 30 dingers through 89 games. Like Guerrero he's a right-hander and although he doesn't have Vladdy Jr's launch angle he does have a tendency to mash most of his taters over the center field wall. If he steers clear of pulling the ball towards that left field fence, he'll have a chance.

    Carlos Santana +700

    While he might not be able to play a killer version of Black Magic Woman, this Carlos Santana can hit a baseball more than 400 feet. He's in the competition representing the hometown team and has clubbed 19 homers while hitting with an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph. As a switch-hitter he's mashed 15 of those dingers from the left side of the plate.

    Santana's played nine seasons in Cleveland so he knows the ins and outs of the ballpark better than any batter in the event. That familiarity could give him an edge, don't forget that two of the last four winners of the derby (Todd Frazier in 2015 and Bryce Harper last year) were hitting at home. At +700 I love his value and I'm dropping a dime on the hometown hero as well as Bell.

    Alex Bregman +800

    I love Alex Bregman as a player, I really do. But in this event I don't see him having much of a chance even with the experience he gained from competing last year. Bregman has one of the lower average exit velocities among this group at 88.8 mph and all but three of his 23 homers this season have been from center towards the left field line. He will have a hard time clearing that 19-foot wall consistently, even with his impressive launch angle.

    Matt Chapman +800

    Chapman was a late replacement but he's more than deserving of being on this list. The 26-year-old third baseman is known more for his defensive prowess than his power at the plate but he's already hit 21 homers this season and his average exit velocity is just behind Bell at 93.7 mph. But he's another right-hander and that will hurt in this stadium.

    Ronald Acuna Jr. +1000

    Acuna has followed up on his rookie of the year campaign with a big sophomore season, cranking 21 dingers so far. But he's the smallest player in this lineup, tipping the scales at just 180 pounds, and the biggest long shot.

    One thing I like about Acuna's chances is that despite being right-handed he's shown plenty of power to the opposite field, hitting about half his dingers over the center or right field walls. That said, power takes muscle and muscle takes size. I can't remember the last winner of this event who was under 200-pounds. It's safe to fade Acuna in this one.

    Here's a full list of the odds for the winner of the 2019 Home Run Derby:

    Josh Bell (+350)
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+450)
    Pete Alonso (+500)
    Joc Pederson (+500)
    Carlos Santana (+700)
    Alex Bregman (+800)
    Matt Chapman (+800)
    Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1000)

    Opening Round Matchups:

    Matt Chapman (+120)
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-140)
    PICK: Guerrero Jr.

    Alex Bergman (+120)
    Joc Pederson (-140)
    PICK: Pederson

    Josh Bell (-190)
    Ronald Acuna Jr.(+160)
    PICK: Bell

    Pete Alonso (-120)
    Carlos Santana (EVEN)
    PICK: Santana

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    Home Run Derby Best Bet

    After this weekend we've reached the one week of the entire year that's as slow as slow gets for sports bettors: the MLB All-Star break. And while I for one tend to welcome the slow period given what lies ahead with football season on deck, it doesn't mean that bettors have to completely stay away from beer and pizza money type action in baseball with the HR Derby and the All-Star game itself.

    Editor's Note: Christian Yelich will not participate in the 2019 Home Run Derby due to a back injury. Oakland Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman will take his place.

    It's this year's HR Derby that has sparked a bit more excitement then usual for the event given all the young, growing talent that's in the field, including the reigning NL MVP in Christian Yelich. Yelich has been dubbed with the “#1 seed” for the event thanks to him having the most HR's this year of any competitor, but it also means he's got to face the #8 seed – who's got the fewest regular season HR's – in Vlad Guerrero Jr.

    Vladdy has been the top prospect in baseball for some time now, and with his bloodlines in the game, he's not your generic worst seed in the event. In fact, he's tied with Mets slugger Pete Alonso for the 3rd best odds (+450) to win the event, as it's hard not to like his chances if he gets by Yelich in that opening round. It was 12 years ago that Vladdy Sr won the HR Derby, and wouldn't it be fitting for Jr's first time on the big stage – because the Blue Jays aren't seeing any big stages anytime soon – to be claiming a HR Derby crown.

    So if you are looking for some action during the slowest time of the year in sports, the HR Derby is probably the best bang for your buck in terms of excitement, as long as money management is still practiced. Here are the odds for this year's event along with one recommendation for a guy who has already gotten my support.

    MLB HR Derby Odds

    Josh Bell (+265)
    Christian Yelich (OFF)
    Pete Alonso (+450)
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr (+450)
    Joc Pederson (+900)
    Carlos Santana (+950)
    Alex Bregman (+1150)
    Ronald Acuna Jr (+1300)
    Matt Champman (+800)

    Odds and Field Subject to Change

    Given that it is a bracket format event, siding with one guy from each side of the bracket can keep rooting interests strong the deeper the event goes, and if you are lucky enough to have both guys in the finals, at the current odds listed, it doesn't matter which two guys you've got, you'll be guaranteeing yourself some profit.

    Yet, this is still more of a “need action” type event to bet on as opposed to the business-like nature anyone's day-to-day handicapping should be about, and making too many plays before hand on the Derby can end up costing you too many units then you ever envisioned having at risk for this event. With live betting options available as the event goes on, you can always feed the action junkie part of you that way, and that's definitely something to consider.

    But for the outset of the event, it's only one guy I'm looking to back, and as has been the case in two of the past four HR Derby's, I think we see the hometown crowd in Cleveland see their own man come home with the crown.

    MLB HR Derby Best Bet: Carlos Santana +950

    The home crowd storyline took center stage in 2015 when Cincinnati's Todd Frazier went the distance in this event and captured the feel-good story of the All-Star break in doing so. After that it was all about the big boys in Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge showing off their brute strength in the derby, but last year it was all hometown love again as Bryce Harper won the thing at Nationals Park in what became his last All-Star scenario in a Nats jersey. The energy that Harper and Frazier fed off in those events was palpable, and given how fatigued guys can get with swing after swing in the derby, that extra boost of energy never hurts.

    Enter Carlos Santana.

    The current Cleveland Indians player who began is MLB career in the city, tested the free agency waters in the winter of 2017 and signed a solid deal with the Phillies. Santana was only able to play out one of his signed three-year deal in a Phillies uniform as the winter of 2017 saw him traded twice, to have his final destination be the spot where he started playing baseball at this level; Cleveland.

    Santana's eye at the plate and his ability to switch hit have always made him a valuable commodity to this Indians organization, and even though he left in an effort to get the most money he could to set up his family as much as possible, Indians fans feel like him being back int he mix this year just feels right. He's already slugged 19 HR's this year for Cleveland, and while he's not your prototypical power hitter that we get in this event, the in-depth knowledge of the ballpark and his decision on which side of the box to bat from could be that minor edge he needs to survive and advance.

    The longer Santana stays around in this bracket tournament, the more energy that Indians crowd will give him, and that never hurts. He's got three very young guys - both in terms of MLB service time and actual age – on his side of the bracket with him, and youthful exuberance catching up to those guys in an event like this is always something to think about.

    And at nearly 10-1 odds, the price is there to potentially turn a beer and pizza bet into one that's more lobster and wine. Potentially not a bad way to grind through the dog days of summer.
    Last edited by Udog; 07-08-2019 at 12:28 PM.

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    Your complete guide to All-Star week

    Lost among all the arguments about All-Star voting and All-Star snubs is that All-Star week is really just a big celebration of the sport. Baseball fans in Cleveland can attend the fan festival, get to see the up-and-coming stars of tomorrow, enjoy sluggers slugging during the Home Run Derby and then watch the best players in the sport -- most of them, at least -- in Tuesday's All-Star Game.

    Here's a guide to three days of fun:

    Monday: Home Run Derby

    Pete Alonso's big swing could deliver big results in the Home Run Derby on Monday night. Kathy Willens/AP Photo

    Time:
    8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
    2018 winner: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

    Format:
    An eight-player bracket, with the higher seed going second. Batters have four minutes per round with one timeout allowed per round (and two in the finals).


    2019 MLB All-Star Game

    This year's All-Star Game is Tuesday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Here's what you need to know about the teams and all the festivities. Rosters, schedules, analysis

    Participants:
    Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics (No. 1 seed, stepping in for the injured Christian Yelich); Pete Alonso, New York Mets (2); Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates (3); Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (4); Joc Pederson, Dodgers (5); Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (6); Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians (7); Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (8)

    It's going to be hard to top the past two Home Run Derbies -- Aaron Judge winning 2017 while dueling Giancarlo Stanton with a barrage of long-range missiles, and then Harper pulling out a dramatic, last-second victory over Kyle Schwarber at his home park -- but this field is loaded and should provide some fun energy with all the young guys.

    Also, for the first time there is the added incentive of $1 million going to the winner, as the overall pool for the participants increased from $725,000 to $2.5 million.

    No wonder Alonso has actually been practicing for the event. The rookie slugger has the opportunity to basically double his 2019 salary.

    Bregman and Pederson have participated in previous Home Run Derbies (Pederson lost in the 2015 final to Todd Frazier), so that might help them. Yelich is the first reigning MVP winner to participate since Albert Pujols in 2009. Acuña and Guerrero give us two of the most exciting young players in the game, and the hometown fans will root on Santana.

    Bell, however, might be the favorite (he and Yelich were the top picks in Vegas, before Yelich pulled out), as his raw power might top even Alonso's. His seven home runs of 440-plus feet lead the majors, and he has cranked two into the Allegheny River beyond the right-field stands at PNC Park -- becoming just the fourth player in PNC history to reach the river on the fly.

    Tuesday: All-Star Game
    Will Mike Trout add to the success he's already enjoyed in the All-Star Game? Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP Photo

    Time:
    7:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
    2018 MVP: Alex Bregman, Astros

    Format:
    Nine innings, doesn't count. The past two All-Star Games both went 10 innings. The AL has won six in a row (after winning 12 in a row with one tie from 1997 to 2009).

    The last time All-Star festivities were held in Cleveland was 1997, when Randy Johnson started against Greg Maddux. The AL starting lineup featured six future Hall of Famers (Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Cal Ripken, Ivan Rodriguez, Roberto Alomar) plus Alex Rodriguez. The NL starting lineup featured five future Hall of Famers (Maddux, Craig Biggio, Tony Gwynn, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell) plus Barry Bonds and Larry Walker. There were eight more future Hall of Famers on the benches, plus Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.

    The first four NL pitchers were Maddux, Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown and Pedro Martinez. Now that is an All-Star pitching staff. Indians catcher Sandy Alomar played the hero for the hometown fans with a two-run homer in the seventh inning off Giants lefty Shawn Estes, giving the AL a 3-1 win.

    Players to watch

    • The NL starting outfield of Yelich, Acuña and Cody Bellinger is third-youngest outfield by average age in All-Star history, trailing only the 1957 NL trio of Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Frank Robinson and the 1940 AL trio of Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio and Charlie Keller. Yelich and Bellinger, battling for MVP honors, both head into the break with at least 30 home runs.

    • Mike Trout, Angels. The two-time All-Star MVP might be having his best season yet. He's 7-for-15 with five extra-base hits (including two home runs) in All-Star games.

    • Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers. The likely NL starter, Ryu is 10-3 with a 1.73 ERA. He has allowed more than two runs in a start just twice all season -- one game with three runs (but just one earned) and one bad seven-run outing at Coors Field in which he allowed three home runs. He has walked just 10 batters in 109 innings. He's joined on the NL roster by teammates Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, making the Dodgers just the fifth team in 20 years with three starting pitchers on an All-Star roster.

    • Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs. Last year's NL MVP runner-up started the 2018 game at second base but starts at shortstop this year. He joins Bobby Grich and Granny Hamner as the only players to start All-Star Games at both shortstop and second base.

    • Justin Verlander, Astros. He started in 2012 and could be the AL starter seven years later, as he's 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA and has held batters to a .162 average. After finishing as the Cy Young runner-up in 2018 and 2016, he's intent on adding a bookend to his 2011 trophy.

    • Francisco Lindor, Indians. He isn't starting, but he'll play in front of the hometown fans. And maybe like Alomar in 1997, he walks away with MVP honors.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-09-2019 at 01:31 AM.

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    National League starters

    C -- Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

    1B -- Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

    2B -- Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

    SS -- Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

    3B -- Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

    OF -- Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

    OF -- Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

    OF -- Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves

    National League reserves

    C -- Yasmani Grandal, Milwaukee Brewers

    C -- J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies

    1B -- Pete Alonso, New York Mets

    1B -- Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates

    2B -- Mike Moustakas, Milwaukee Brewers

    SS -- Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals

    SS -- Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies

    3B -- Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals

    3B -- Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

    OF -- Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

    OF -- David Dahl, Colorado Rockies

    OF -- Jeff McNeil, New York Mets

    National League pitchers

    RHP -- Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

    RHP -- Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

    RHP -- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

    RHP -- Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks

    LHP -- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

    LHP -- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers

    RHP -- Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

    RHP -- Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves

    RHP -- Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

    LHP -- Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers

    LHP -- Will Smith, San Francisco Giants

    RHP -- Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres

    x -- injured


    American League starters

    C -- Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

    1B -- Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians

    2B -- DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

    SS -- Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins

    3B -- Alex Bregman, Houston Astros

    OF -- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

    OF -- George Springer, Houston Astros

    OF -- Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

    DH -- Hunter Pence, Texas Rangers -- x

    American League reserves

    C -- James McCann, Chicago White Sox

    1B -- Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

    1B -- Daniel Vogelbach, Seattle Mariners

    2B -- Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

    2B -- Tommy La Stella, Los Angeles Angels -- x

    2B -- Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (replaces La Stella) -- x

    2B -- Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees (replaces Lowe)

    SS -- Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

    SS -- Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (replaces Pence)

    3B -- Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics

    OF -- Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

    OF -- Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays

    OF -- Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers

    DH -- J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

    American League pitchers

    RHP -- Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

    RHP -- Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox

    LHP -- John Means, Baltimore Orioles

    LHP -- Mike Minor, Texas Rangers

    RHP -- Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays

    RHP -- Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins -- x

    RHP -- Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

    RHP -- Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

    RHP -- Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins (replaces Odorizzi)

    LHP -- Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees

    RHP -- Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers

    LHP -- Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians

    RHP -- Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros

    x -- injured
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-09-2019 at 01:35 AM.

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    Win Total Update - AS Break

    We've reached the midway point of the 2019 pro baseball season and bettors investing in “Win Total” wagers can start to get a clearer picture on their investments.

    Listed below are each team’s win totals and their records through July 7 along with their projection to go ‘over’ or ‘under’ this season.

    Commercial Photography
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-09-2019 at 01:42 AM.

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    I don't understand why Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in the Home Run Derby unless its to make him the youngest participant in the event. And I would not bet him.
    Common sense is not so common.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettorsChat View Post
    I don't understand why Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in the Home Run Derby unless its to make him the youngest participant in the event. And I would not bet him.
    I question some of the contestants every year it seems. I can't figure out how they determine the HR Derby lineup.

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