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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thur., June 13 -Sat., June 15)

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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thur., June 13 -Sat., June 15)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, June 13 -Saturday, June 15

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 1
    David Schwab

    Football ‘north of the border’ returns to action with Week 1 of the 2019 CFL regular season. The Calgary Stampeders finally broke through with a victory over the Ottawa RedBlacks in last season’s CFL title game in their third-straight trip to the Grey Cup Championship.

    Turning to the CFL futures odds to win this year’s CFL title, Calgary has been opened as a 13/5 favorite. Second on the list is the British Columbia Lions at 9/2 followed by Ottawa and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 11/2 betting odds.

    Further down the list at 7/1 is the Hamilton Tiger-Cats with the Saskatchewan Roughriders at 15/2. Rounding out the nine CFL teams are the Edmonton Eskimos (10/1), Toronto Argonauts (15/1) and Montreal Alouettes (18/1).

    Thursday, June 13

    Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-7 SU, 10-9 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (9-11 SU, 8-11-1 ATS)

    Point-spread: OFF
    Total: OFF

    Game Overview

    The Roughriders were one game off the pace to win the West Division last season ahead of a 23-18 loss to Winnipeg in the playoffs as two-point home underdogs. Craig Dickenson takes over the reins as head coach for the departed Chris Jones. He is likely to turn to Zach Collaros as his starting quarterback for Week 1 with the long-term hopes that he can stay healthy and return to form as a solid passer in the CFL. Saskatchewan was 6-3 straight-up on the road last year.

    Expectations have been raised for Hamilton this season in light of Jeremiah Masoli’s play at quarterback in 2018. He was second in the CFL with 5,209 total passing yards while tossing 28 touchdowns against 18 interceptions. The Tiger-Cats also have a new head coach at the helm with Orlondo Steinauer taking over for the departed June Jones. Hamilton bowed out of the playoffs last season with a 46-27 loss to Ottawa as a 3 ½-point road underdog in the East Division Finals.

    Betting Trends

    -- Saskatchewan has won the last five meetings SU and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 games in this inter-division matchup.

    Friday, June 14

    Montreal Alouettes (5-13 SU, 11-7 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (9-9 SU, 8-10 ATS)

    Point-spread: OFF
    Total: OFF

    Game Overview

    A front office shake-up over the weekend sent Mike Sherman packing after just one season as Montreal’s head coach. This unexpected departure less than a week before the season opener elevated offensive coordinator Khari Jones to the top spot. It was believed that Vernon Adams, Jr. would be the team’s starter at quarterback, but Antonio Pipkin was also in the mix during the preseason. Other off-field issues have the Alouettes under league ownership while the search for a buyer continues.

    The Eskimos missed the playoffs last season after falling to last place in the West. Following the loss of Mike Reilly at quarterback, Edmonton will turn to Trevor Harris after playing last season in Ottawa. Harris threw for 5,116 passing yards while helping the RedBlacks get back to the CFL title game. He tossed 22 touchdowns against 11 interceptions in 2018. The Eskimos did win two of three both SU and against the spread to close out 2018 on a positive note.

    Betting Trends

    -- Montreal has a 6-3 edge ATS in the last nine meetings, but Edmonton has won its last five home games against the Alouettes SU. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings.

    Saturday, June 15

    Ottawa RedBlacks (12-8 SU, 10-10 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (15-5 SU, 11-9 ATS)

    Point-spread: OFF
    Total: OFF

    Game Overview

    The quest to win another East Division title begins with Dominique Davis as the likely starter at quarterback for this rematch of last year’s Grey Cup. Ottawa also has Jonathan Jennings on the roster as another possible option under center. The RedBlacks will also have some new faces running the ball with the departure of William Powell, who led the CFL in rushing attempts last year. Heading on the road for the season opener, Ottawa was 6-5 ATS last season in 11 games closing as an underdog.

    It has been a given that Calgary would post the best SU record in the CFL after doing so the previous three seasons. However, the Stampeders lost 11 starters from last year’s championship roster. Bo Levi Mitchell was resigned at quarterback after being named the league’s Most Outstanding Player. He was third in total passing yards (5,124) while leading the way with 35 touchdown throws. Until some other team steps up its game, Calgary remains the team to beat in the CFL.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has won its last five home games against Ottawa SU and it has a 6-1 edge ATS in the last seven meetings at McMahon Stadium. The total has gone OVER in seven of the last 10 games between the two inter-division rivals.

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-9 SU, 11-8-1 ATS) at B.C. Lions (9-10 SU, 10-9 ATS)
    Point-spread: OFF
    Total: OFF

    Game Overview

    The Blue Bombers are another solid team stuck in the logjam that is the West Division. They made it all the way to the division finals last season before losing to Calgary 22-14 as 4 ½-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER in six of their final eight games after leading the CFL in scoring last season with an average of 30.6 points per game. Matt Nichols started 14 games and threw for 3,146 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he was also picked off 13 times. Winnipeg also has Chris Streveler waiting in the wings.

    The Lions are among the ranks of the five teams that will start the 2019 regular season with a new head coach. With Wally Bruno calling it a career, the torch has been passed to DeVone Claybrooks. He is already facing some high expectations with Reilly returning to BC as the new starting quarterback after he began his CFL career with the Lions. In his final season in Edmonton, Reilly once again led the league in total passing yards (5,562) with 30 passing touchdowns and 18 interceptions.

    Betting Trends

    -- BC has won seven of its last 10 home games against Winnipeg SU in this West Division tilt, but Winnipeg has an overall 8-2 edge ATS in the last 10 meetings. The total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine matchups.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-15-2019 at 01:23 AM.

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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 1


    Thursday, June 13

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    SASKATCHEWAN (12 - 7) at HAMILTON (9 - 11) - 6/13/2019, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SASKATCHEWAN is 141-103 ATS (+27.7 Units) as an underdog since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-0 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    SASKATCHEWAN is 4-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, June 14

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    MONTREAL (5 - 13) at EDMONTON (9 - 9) - 6/14/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MONTREAL is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    EDMONTON is 2-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 4-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, June 15

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    OTTAWA (12 - 8) at CALGARY (15 - 5) - 6/15/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
    CALGARY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in June games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 3-2 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    WINNIPEG (11 - 9) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 10) - 6/15/2019, 10:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CFL

    Week 1


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
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    Thursday, June 13

    Saskatchewan Roughriders
    Saskatchewan is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
    Saskatchewan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games on the road
    Saskatchewan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Saskatchewan's last 10 games when playing Hamilton
    Saskatchewan is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games
    Hamilton is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    Hamilton is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games at home
    Hamilton is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Hamilton's last 10 games when playing Saskatchewan
    Hamilton is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan



    Friday, June 14

    Montreal Alouettes
    Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Montreal is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games
    Montreal is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Montreal is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Montreal's last 11 games on the road
    Montreal is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Edmonton
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    Montreal is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Montreal's last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    Edmonton Eskimos
    Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Edmonton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games
    Edmonton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Edmonton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    Edmonton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Montreal
    Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Montreal
    Edmonton is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal
    Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Edmonton's last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal


    Saturday, June 15

    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    Ottawa is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games on the road
    Ottawa is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Calgary
    Ottawa is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ottawa's last 10 games when playing Calgary
    Ottawa is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Ottawa is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games
    Calgary is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 11 games at home
    Calgary is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Ottawa
    Calgary is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing Ottawa
    Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing at home against Ottawa

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Winnipeg is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
    Winnipeg is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Winnipeg's last 25 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 9 games when playing British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    Winnipeg is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Winnipeg's last 17 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
    British Columbia Lions
    British Columbia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    British Columbia is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games at home
    British Columbia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of British Columbia's last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    British Columbia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of British Columbia's last 17 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-13-2019 at 12:18 PM.

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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 1


    Thursday, June 13

    Saskatchewan @ Hamilton

    Game 681-682
    June 13, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Saskatchewan
    110.537
    Hamilton
    115.978
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hamilton
    by 5 1/2
    63
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Hamilton
    by 2 1/2
    48
    Dunkel Pick:
    Hamilton
    (-2 1/2); Over


    Friday, June 14

    Montreal @ Edmonton


    Game 683-684
    June 14, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Montreal
    105.680
    Edmonton
    126.150
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 20 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 10
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-10); Under


    Saturday, June 15

    Ottawa @ Calgary


    Game 685-686
    June 15, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    116.572
    Calgary
    119.897
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 3 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 8 1/2
    52
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (+8 1/2); Over

    Winnipeg @ BC Lions


    Game 687-688
    June 15, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Winnipeg
    115.560
    BC Lions
    103.977
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 11 1/2
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    BC Lions
    by 2
    52
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (+2); Under





    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, June 13


    2019 CFL writeups start in Week 2
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-13-2019 at 12:19 PM.

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    CFL Week 1 preview, odds, picks and predictions: Count on Calgary in opener
    Rohit Ponnaiya

    Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell and the Calgary Stampeders are -8 point favorites in Week 1 of the CFL season as they take on the Ottawa Redblacks in a rematch of the Grey Cup.

    As exciting as a summer of baseball and WNBA sounds, those craving a little action on the gridiron can breathe a sigh of relief with football action north of the border. It's Week 1 of the CFL season and lines are out for all the games on the schedule including a rematch of last year's Grey Cup between the Calgary Stampeders and Ottawa Redblacks.

    The CFL can be one of the best leagues for the sharp bettor to win money and the quality of football is pretty damn good as well. We break down the odds with our in-depth analysis, betting notes and best bets for each game. Keep in mind that these odds are current as of this article being published and lines can move in a hurry.

    SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS AT HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

    Line: Hamilton -3, O/U 48
    Time: Thursday, June 13, 7:00 p.m. ET

    For those who mostly know about the CFL from The Simpsons, rest assured that watching the Roughriders is generally more exciting than this clip would suggest.

    This is a classic matchup of high-scoring offense versus stifling defense, the Ti-Cats put up the most points and yards in the league last year and return with almost their entire offense intact. However, even with that prolific offense they went just 8-10 in the regular season and couldn't score against the Roughriders, putting up a total of 33 points in two losses.

    The Roughriders went 12-6 last year but did lose CFL All-Star defensive end Willie Jefferson in free agency. For those not in the know, the CFL All-Star designation is more of an All-CFL designation for the best players in the league at their respective positions, while the Eastern and Western All-Star designations are for each conference. However, the Riders defense might not miss a beat since they still have the other CFL All-Star DE in Charleston Hughes and signed CFL All-Star DT Micah Johnson away from Calgary. For good measure they also signed DE A.C Leonard.

    This defense will be tough and their offense should be improved as well with the addition of running back William Powell who finished second in the league with 1362 rushing yards last season. Even with this being the lowest O/U for Week 1, I'm not hesitating to back the Under.

    PICK: Under 48


    MONTREAL ALOUETTES AT EDMONTON ESKIMOS

    Line: Edmonton -10, O/U 51.5
    Time: Friday, June 14, 9:00 p.m. ET

    Edmonton lost star quarterback Mike Reilly and his 5562 passing yards but replacing him with Trevor Harris (5116 yards through the air) should soften the blow. They also added Greg Ellinson and DaVaris Daniels to a receiving corps that lost Derel Walker and D'haquille Williams (currently trying to make the Bills). On defense they completely revamped their linebackers by signing a pair of Eastern All-Stars from Hamilton in Larry Dean and Don Unamba while also pilfering Jovon Santos-Knox from Winnipeg.

    Despite finishing 9-9 last season the Eskimos were probably better than their record indicated and dismantled the Alouettes in both of the games in the head to head, winning by 21 points in Montreal and and 16 points in Edmonton.

    I'm not going to sugarcoat this: Montreal will be BAD this year. They won just five games last year and two of those were meaningless games to end the year. The Alouettes parted ways with head coach Mike Sherman (who you might remember from such shows as the Brett Favre-led Packers of the early 2000s) on Saturday after a tumultuous two years with the organization. Getting rid of your coach less than a week before the season starts is never a good sign.

    This team could not find the back of the endzone last year and will likely start Antonio Pipkin at QB. Pipkin had all of three passing TDS and eight interceptions on 131 pass attempts in 2018 and will be behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. This is a team in turmoil with not a whole lot of talent and on the road. Take the Esks to cover.

    PICK: Edmonton -10


    OTTAWA REDBLACKS AT CALGARY STAMPEDERS

    Line: Calgary -8, O/U 52
    Time: Saturday, June 15, 7:00 p.m. ET

    The Stamps rolled to a 27-16 victory over the RedBlacks in the Grey Cup last October. But the surface they played on was an absolute mess and there has been massive turnover for both of these squads in the offseason.

    The Stampeders lost three players from their defensive line (including CFL All-Star Michah Johnson) and one of the best linebackers in the league in Alex Singleton. Lucky for them, the RedBlacks have suffered even bigger losses on offense.

    Besides Harris and Ellinson they also lost offensive tackle SirVincent (how great a name is that??) Rogers to Edmonton, although Rogers won't suit up for the Esks either thanks to a torn tricep. They will also have to replace Powell at RB, as well as return specialist and 1000-yard receiver Diontae Spencer.

    With all those departures on offense the Redblacks will have a hard time putting up points in Week 1.

    Calgary's offense on the other hand should have no problem getting on the board with the reigning Most Outstanding Player in QB Bo Levi Mitchell who is surrounded by a bevy of weapons. Even with those losses of their own, their pipeline of talent has ensured that the cupboard is never bare. This line opened at -6.5 for Calgary and has already shifted to -8. Lay the points with Calgary.

    PICK: Calgary -8


    WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS AT BC LIONS

    Line: BC -2, O/U 51.5
    Time: Saturday, June 15, 10:00 p.m. ET

    There's alot of excitement in British Columbia after they signed Mike Reilly to the biggest contract in the league - $725,000 annually which might be peanuts for an NFL kicker but is about 14 percent of the team salary cap in the CFL.

    Reilly, along with massive (and talented) receivers Lemar Durant and Duron Carter, should be huge for a Lions team that made the playoffs last year despite a subpar passing game. But with currently the second-best odds to win the Grey Cup, oddsmakers might be a tad too bullish on a team that finished 9-9 last season and has lost significant contributors on the defensive side of the ball and at running back.

    The Canadian game tends to emphasise passing the football but watching Winnipeg last year you wouldn't know it. They averaged a league-leading 136.8 rushing yards per game, a whopping 23.9 yards more than second-place Saskatchewan. They're led by RB Andrew Harris who is kind of a Canadian version of prime Marshall Faulk with his ability to run and catch the ball out of the backfield.

    Winnipeg's defense should be able to terrorize quarterbacks. They signed the previously mentioned Willie Jefferson at defensive end and already had the promising Jackson Jeffcoat and Craig Roh on the outside of the line. In the interior they have an excellent rotation with Drake Nevis, Brandin Bryant, and Jake Thomas. Add last year's Most Outstanding Defensive Player in linebacker Adam Bighill to the mix and you have one of the top defenses and top teams in the league.

    I think the Bombers could be the best team in the league and with Reilly still learning to adjust to a new system and teammates I'm backing them to steal this game on the road.

    PICK: Winnipeg +2
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-13-2019 at 12:19 PM.

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