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Thread: Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 6/7

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    Default Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 6/7

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, June 7

    Good Luck on day # 158 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    College football spreads for games on Nov 29-30:

    — Texas Tech @ Texas (-10)

    — Washington State @ Washington (-9)

    — Notre Dame (-5.5) @ Stanford

    — Ohio State @ Michigan (-3.5)

    — Florida State @ Florida (-14)

    — Texas A&M @ LSU (-7.5)


    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with the weekend here……

    13) The person who shoved Toronto Raptors’ G Kyle Lowry, then cursed at him at Wednesday’s NBA Finals game in Oakland wasn’t just any fan; it was Mark Stevens, who is a minority owner of the Warriors. Stevens was tossed from the game Wednesday, and won’t be at any of the games the rest of the series.

    Not only that, but Stevens got fined $500K and was banned from the NBA for a year.

    12) Atlanta Braves signed P Dallas Keuchel to a one-year deal worth $13M, which probably leaves Bronx and the Phillies as main trade partners with the Giants for Madison Bumgarner.

    11) Eagles signed QB Carson Wentz to a 4-year, $128M contract that could escalate to $144M; $107M of it is guaranteed. Funny thing is that Eagles won Super Bowl two years ago, without Wentz, but Nick Foles is in Jacksonville now, so Wentz has to stay healthy now.

    10) 1,200 kids just got taken in the baseball draft; 172 from California, 129 from Florida, 113 from Texas, so 34.5% of players taken were from those three states.

    9) Kenyon Martin Jr., son of the former NBA player, is skipping playing basketball at Vanderbilt to try professional ball overseas. Martin is a 6-6 forward; he is the second prospect in two weeks to pass up college ball to play overseas for money.

    8) College basketball is moving the 3-point line distance from 20 feet, 9 inches to the international basketball distance of 22-1 3/4; they did this in the NIT the last two years- under went 64-60 in those games.

    Last year, 38.7% of shots taken were 3’s; will this result in less 3’s being tried?

    This season, they will also reset the shot clock to 20 seconds (instead of a full 30) after an offensive rebound, which will result in more possessions, which helps the over.

    7) Blues 2, Bruins 1— Back in January, a guy named Scott Berry bet $400 on the Blues to win the Stanley Cup, when they were 250-1 to win the championship. Now St Louis is one win away from winning its first Stanley Cup title. Berry would bank $100,000 if that happens.

    6) Former Steelers’ backup QB Landry Jones may surface next in XFL tryouts; one thing the AAF didn’t have was high-quality QB’s.

    5) For what it is worth, ESPN’s new gambling show Daily Wager is not allowed to use NFL team names or logos, but they use names/logos for all the other sports.

    4) Brooklyn Nets traded Allen Crabbe, the #17 pick and a protected first in 2020 to the Atlanta Hawks for Taurean Prince and a 2021 second-round pick.

    Nets clear $18M in additional salary cap space for July, which gives Brooklyn $46M in salary cap space to sign a max free agent.

    Hawks now have three picks (#’s 8, 10 and 17) in this month’s draft.

    3) Rockies, Dodgers, Pirates are tied for major league lead, with 13 home-grown players each on their 25-man rosters. Houston leads MLB with 22 players on their 40-man roster.

    2) News item: Two female acquaintances vanished with more than half a million dollars in jewelry from Jets’ RB Le’Veon Bell’s Florida home.

    Lot of ways to go with this one; not every day someone has two “girlfriends” over to the house. Fact that Bell left to go to the gym and left the ladies in the house seem to indicate that they aren’t escorts; if they are escorts, then Bell is a nominee for immediate induction into the Imbecile Hall of Fame.

    1) When MLB puts in the 3-batter minimum rule for relief pitchers in the near future, I’ll be glad that I’ll never have to watch some of these cruddy lefty relievers who are in the majors for one reason only— supposedly they can get lefties out.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-07-2019 at 12:28 PM.

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    Preview: Raptors (58-24) at Warriors (57-25)

    OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Toronto Raptors can move within one game of their first championship Friday night, but likely they will see a different-looking opponent than two days earlier when they take the floor for Game 4 of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena.

    The Golden State Warriors, who trail 2-1 in the best-of-seven series, hope to get All-Star guard Klay Thompson back in action.

    The hot-shooting Raptors easily brushed aside Golden State's one-man assault in Game 3 when the visitors got double-figure scoring from all five starters to overcome Stephen Curry's 47-point explosion in a 123-109 victory Wednesday.

    With or without Thompson, who strained his left hamstring late in Golden State's Game 2 win at Toronto and sat out Wednesday, the Warriors have scored exactly 109 points in all three games of the series.

    The game outcomes have hinged on Toronto's shooting accuracy.

    The Raptors were held to 37.2 percent from the field and 28.9 percent on 3-pointers while putting up just 104 points in their Game 2 loss.

    They have sandwiched that performance by hitting better than 50 percent from the field (50.6 percent in Game 1, 52.4 percent in Game 3) in their two wins, brilliant shooting nights that have included 39.4 percent and 44.7 percent accuracy from beyond the arc.

    That shooting has produced nine- and 14-point wins and put the Eastern Conference champs right where they want to be -- with a lead in the series on the eve of Game 4, where they have been unbeaten, including twice on the road, in their previous three series.

    "We haven't really had a good team shooting night, and I knew eventually at some point we were due for one," Toronto guard Danny Green said after going 6-for-10 on 3-point attempts in Game 3. "We still have to do a better job defensively on that end of the floor to limit those guys better so we don't have to rely on our offense or our shooting to win games for us."

    In a remarkable display of consistency, all seven Raptors who took a shot in Game 4 made at least half of their attempts. Kawhi Leonard led the way with 30 points, the 13th time this postseason that he's reached that mark.

    Only six others in NBA history -- Michael Jordan (four times), Kobe Bryant (two times), LeBron James (two times), Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson -- have had 13 or more 30-point games in a single postseason.

    Just three of those guys (Jordan, Iverson and James) have ever scored 47 or more in a Finals game. In Game 3, Curry became the eighth player to put or 47 or more in the Finals, producing a career postseason high while shooting 14-for-31 overall and 6-for-14 from beyond the 3-point arc.

    Without Thompson and Kevin Durant (strained right calf), he did that without getting much help. Only Draymond Green (17 points) and Andre Iguodala (11) also scored in double figures for the Warriors. The other eight members of the two-time defending champs who took at least one shot combined to go 12-for-38 (31.6 percent).

    Golden State coach Steve Kerr announced Thursday that Durant, who hasn't played since the Western Conference semifinals, also would miss Game 4.

    Re-enter Thompson, who was given a thumbs-up after a workout and examination on Thursday. He was the Warriors' leading scorer in the Game 2 win with 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting, which, Curry noted, only tells half the story.

    "People fall in love with his shooting," Curry said Thursday, "but the way that our team plays defensively and the chemistry that we have and the experience, he's right at the forefront of that. So you would love to have him out there on that end of the floor as well, especially with a team like Toronto who is versatile and can space the floor. He can guard a lot of different guys."

    The winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 Finals has gone on to claim the championship on 31 of 38 occasions. But Draymond Green had different numbers bouncing around in his head after the Warriors' Wednesday loss.

    "We just got to continue to battle," he said, "and win the next game, go back to Toronto, win Game 5, come back to Oracle (Arena), win Game 6 and then celebrate. Fun times ahead."
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-07-2019 at 12:29 PM.

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    527Toronto -528 Golden State
    GOLDEN STATE is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Friday, June 7


    Toronto @ Golden State

    Game 527-528
    June 7, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    125.152
    Golden State
    134.230
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 9
    224
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 4 1/2
    216
    Dunkel Pick:
    Golden State
    (-4 1/2); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Friday, June 7


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    TORONTO (72 - 31) at GOLDEN STATE (70 - 31) - 6/7/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TORONTO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) on Friday nights this season.
    TORONTO is 217-270 ATS (-80.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 43-56 ATS (-18.6 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 36-50 ATS (-19.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 19-30 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 35-51 ATS (-21.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 20-30 ATS (-13.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 36-45 ATS (-13.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 5-3 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 5-4 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, June 7


    Toronto’s other four starters were 28-53 from floor in Game 3 win- all five starters scored 17+ points- when they get that kind of balance, very tough to beat, especially for team missing two starters and Looney. Raptors are 4-1 vs Golden State this year, winning both meetings here. Curry had 47 in Game 3; other four starters combined to go 12-33 from floor. Nine of last 11 series games went over the total. Extra time between games allows Toronto to play their best guys more; three Raptors played 38:00+ Wednesday. Klay Thompson’s leg is the obvious variable here; doubtful that Durant will return in this spot.




    NBA

    Friday, June 7


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Toronto Raptors
    Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    Toronto is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games on the road
    Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
    Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
    Toronto is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing Golden State
    Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Toronto is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Toronto is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Golden State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
    Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Golden State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Toronto
    Golden State is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing Toronto
    Golden State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing Toronto
    Golden State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Toronto
    Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
    Golden State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing at home against Toronto


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-07-2019 at 12:30 PM.

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    Finals G4 - Raptors at Warriors
    Tony Mejia

    NBA Finals – Game 4

    Toronto at Golden State (-4.5/215.5), ABC, 9:07 p.m. ET


    May 30 – Raptors (-2) 118 vs. Warriors 109 (Over 212.5)
    June 2 – Warriors (+2) 109 at Raptors 104 (Under 213.5)
    June 5 – Raptors (+3) 123 at Warriors 109 (Over 210.5)

    There will be some who won’t believe Kevin Durant is sitting out Game 4 until he’s listed as inactive prior to the contest.

    After not being cleared to even scrimmage on Thursday, Golden State head coach Steve Kerr ruled him out of Friday night’s crucial contest, but the star forward wanted to see how he felt in the morning before officially pulling the plug on his availability for a must-win since his Warriors can’t afford to go down 3-1 in the series.

    It’s not out of the realm of possibility that this could all be gamesmanship by the two-time defending champs, but it’s doubtful they would be that sneaky, especially since Nick Nurse and the Raptors are going to prepare as if he’s playing anyway.

    The Warriors have already made no secret of the fact Klay Thompson is returning after missing his first career playoff. Even though he wanted to play in a Game 3 loss that Golden State discouraged him from suiting up for, the gamble to give him a few more days to rest his hamstring strain may still pay off if he’s able to pick up where he left off. Shaun Livingston, Quinn Cook and Alfonzo McKinnie weren’t able to adequately replace his production, failing to support Stephen Curry despite his virtuoso 47-point scoring outburst.

    Andre Iguodala started for Durant and couldn’t build upon his huge shot to seal Game 2 in Toronto, finishing with 11 points, six boards and three assists in over 30 minutes. Both he and DeMarcus Cousins started and clearly weren’t their usual selves, a troublesome issue for the champs since they won’t have much time to heal up their ailments with just one day in between games. Thompson won’t be anywhere near 100 percent either, but the Warriors missed him on both sides of the floor, particularly since he’s able to switch and defend multiple Raptors.

    It’s probably no coincidence that Danny Green got off the way he did, finishing 6-for-10 from 3-point range in becoming one of six double-digit scorers who made themselves right at home at Oracle on Wednesday. Serge Ibaka finished with just six points but helped change the game with six blocks, so all seven Raptors who played major minutes will have confidence entering Game 4 after coming through with big performances in stealing homecourt advantage back.

    Kawhi Leonard led Toronto with 30 points, Kyle Lowry was terrific with 23 points and nine assists and Pascal Siakam stuffed the stat-sheet with 18 points, a team-high nine boards and six assists. Marc Gasol and Green set the tone early with excellent first quarters, joining Leonard in getting the Raptors off to a fast start to allow them to play from ahead and keep Oracle from swallowing them whole. If anyone was worried about the moment being too big for the first-time Finals participants, their experienced veterans sent a clear message that they’re able to lead the younger guys.

    We’ll see if Thompson’s return can help the Warriors produce some game pressure that will help trip up the visitors after losing all four quarters on Wednesday night, ultimately leading to Toronto running away for a 123-109 win in what has been the highest-scoring game of the series. The Raptors won the third quarter that had been a rallying point for Golden State all postseason 36-31, bouncing back from surrendering the first 18 second-half points of Game 2 in losing at home on Sunday night. They similarly excelled in the Eastern Conference finals, getting the better of a Bucks team that had dominated coming out of the locker room in the first few rounds.

    Toronto controlled the paint against the smaller Warriors, taking advantage of Cousins being a step slow and thriving despite Andrew Bogut again putting together a solid performance. The Raptors scored 36 points in the first quarter, putting together the most efficient opening first 12 minutes of the series thus far for either team in immediately setting the tone despite taking the floor in Oakland for the first time since December. They’ve been effective on the road this postseason, following up a regular-season that saw them go 26-15 outside Canada by winning five or their first nine outside Scotiabank Arena in these playoffs.

    If the Warriors lose on Friday, they may not make it back for a Game 6, which means this could be the final game ever at Oracle Arena since the team is moving to San Francisco’s new Chase Center this fall. NBA expert Kevin Rogers feels they’ll have a much better chance of holding serve with at least one All-Star returning to the mix.

    “The Warriors were put in a difficult position heading into Game 3 with Thompson not able to suit up. Curry can only do so much by himself as evidenced by his 47-point effort, but just two other Warriors scored in double-figures,” Rogers said. “Toronto improved to 6-1 SU/ATS in the last seven games following the Game 3 win as the Raptors are one bad stretch in Game 2 away from maybe leading Golden State, 3-0. It has been a very long time since the Warriors dropped successive home games in the playoffs, which came all the way back in the second round in 1991 against the Lakers (yes it was the famous “Run TMC” squad).”

    Curry will look to follow up his brilliant contest that featured 6-for-14 3-point shooting with another big scoring game, but needs teammates to fare better than the combined 6-for-22 clip they managed from beyond the arc in Game 3. Getting Thompson back should help matters, but the likes of McKinnie and Cook, who shot 1-for-5 as a tandem off the bench, must be more aggressive and effective.

    Toronto hit 17 3-pointers and shot 20-for-21 from the free-throw line, so it really stepped up when it needed to and got wherever it wanted against a defense that looked incredibly shaky. It may help matters to get Kevon Looney back after he was initially ruled out for the remainder of the series since he’s looking to get back from a collarbone injury and a fractured rib in order to help add some quality depth to a team badly in need of it with so many players hobbled and Durant likely sidelined until at least Monday’s Game 5.

    After the injury status for Thompson was announced on Wednesday night prior to Game 4, the total dropped from 213 ½ points to a closing number of 210 at most books. Sure enough, Toronto scored a playoff-high 123 points and the ‘over’ cashed in Game 3 with plenty of time remaining in the fourth quarter. Oddsmakers sent out an opener of 216 for Game 4 and that number was pushed up to 216 ½ at a handful of betting shops before being bet back down to the 215 range. VegasInsider.com totals effort Chris David offered up his thoughts for Friday’s number.

    “The ‘over’ was a clear-cut winner on Wednesday and that ticket was helped with a barrage of 3-pointers from Toronto, who finished with 17 triples from distance. I often relied on pace as a key factor for handicapping totals but it’s become apparent now that it comes down to 3-point shooting. If the Raptors continue to ring it up from the outside, this series could be over in five games,” David said. “The “if” is a certainly a big one and you could be reluctant to back the Raptors offense again knowing that they were averaging 101.3 PPG on the road in this year’s playoffs prior to the Game 3 effort. Thompson is expected to return on Friday and not only will that help Golden State’s offense but it’s defense as well. Steve Kerr’s team has shown incredible defensive form after a loss.”

    The Warriors have only lost multiple home games in a playoff series twice since their remarkable run began back in 2014. They dropped a pair in losing the 2016 Finals to Cleveland and fell twice in Oakland against the Clippers in the first round this postseason. They’re simply not used to slumping in front of the paying customers.

    “Including their win in Game 2 at Toronto in this series, the Warriors have now gone 12-2 after a loss since the All-Star break,” David said. “The ‘under’ cashed luckily in that contest and the low side is now 10-4 during this span. One of the reasons behind those ‘under’ tickets is based on Golden State’s defense, which has allowed 106 PPG. There’s no doubt that the Raptors are a legit team and when the shots fall, they’re more than dangerous. While I could be underestimating them again, it’s hard for me to back a team that hasn’t shown much consistency away from home. Toronto’s Team Total is hovering between 105 and 106 points for Game 4 and I would lean low to the Raptors in this spot.”

    Despite the ‘over’ result from Wednesday, Toronto has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 on the road in the playoffs. Going back to the 2016 postseason, the Raptors have watched the ‘under’ go 18-8-2 as visitors in the playoffs. Golden State is 5-4 to the ‘over’ at home in this year’s postseason. The ‘over’ is on a 5-0 run in the last five NBA Finals games played at Oracle Arena.

    Draymond Green, who scored 17 points but had series-lows in rebounds and assists in Game 3, will look to bounce back from committing a team-high four turnovers and must be sharper in facilitating offense, which should also be easier with Thompson back in the fold. Most sportsbooks now have the series as a pick’em despite Golden State being down 2-1, so if you still believe the champs will three-peat, now is the time to strike. Dropping Wednesday’s game led to the Warriors being demoted from the role of NBA title favorite for the first time all season, odds-wise.

    Toronto has looked like the better team in the series and are currently one second-half lull from a 3-0 lead over the depleted champs. Given the impending free agency of Durant, Thompson and Green and all the injuries, the NBA’s top dynasty since the 1990’s Chicago Bulls is on the ropes. We’ll see if the Warriors can keep themselves off life support by responding at home to ensure at least one more game in Oakland regardless of what happens in Monday’s Game 5.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-07-2019 at 12:31 PM.

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