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Thread: Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 6/5

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    Default Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 6/5

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, June 5

    Good Luck on day # 156 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    — Giants 9, Mets 3 (10)— If you bet the under, my condolences.

    — It is June 5; the Phillies have already used 41 players this year.

    — Dodgers 9, Arizona 0— Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed two ER in his last 44.2 IP.

    — If you’re wondering, Tim Tebow is batting .159 at AAA Syracuse.

    — RIP Alan Young, who passed away at 96; he played Wilbur Post on the classic TV show Mr Ed.

    — Bruins’ Zdeno Chara (broken jaw) hasn’t been ruled out of Game 5 in the Stanley Cup finals. Hockey players are tough.


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) There are 256 regular season games in the NFL every year; last year, 73 of them (28.5%) were decided by 3 or fewer points.

    12) Las Vegas Bowl is one of the first beneficiaries of the new domed stadium in Las Vegas; the LV Bowl will now feature a matchup of a Pac-12 team vs either an SEC team or Big 14 team every year, starting in 2020. The bowl also moves into a post-Christmas slot; the #2 Pac-12 team will be heading to Las Vegas for this game.

    11) Since 2011, there have been 12 Pac-12-SEC football games:
    2011:
    LSU +3 W40-27 vs Oregon
    2012:
    LSU -23 W41-3 Washington
    Missouri -3 W24-20 Arizona State
    2013:
    Tennessee +28 L14-59 @ Oregon
    Auburn -14 W31-24 Auburn
    2015:
    Tex A&M -3 W38-17 vs Arizona St.
    2016:
    Tex A&M -3 W31-24 OT UCLA
    Alabama -11.5 W52-6 vs USC
    Alabama -13.5 W24-7 vs Washington
    2017:
    Tex A&M +5.5 L44-45 @ UCLA
    Ole Miss -7 L16-27 @ California
    2018:
    Auburn -2 W21-16 vs Washington

    SEC teams are 9-3 SU in those games, 9-3 vs spread, 7-2 when favored.

    10) Michigan landed former Alabama assistant Josh Gattis as its new offensive coordinator at least in part because Nick Saban doesn’t want a play caller who has never called plays before, so he wouldn’t name Gattis as the Crimson Tide’s OC.

    As a player, Gattis starred at safety for Wake Forest and was the leader of the only Demon Deacons team that won the ACC title and went to the Orange Bowl.

    9) North Carolina football coach Mack Brown has had his right knee replaced by a surgeon who once played for him, Dr. Michael Bolognesi, who played DB for Brown at UNC from 1989-93.

    8) There were only three high school pitchers taken in the first round of the baseball draft, the lowest amount since 2008.

    7) Baseball stuff:
    — Phillies lost OF Andrew McCutchen (torn ACL) for the season.
    — Tigers put 3B Jeimer Candelario (shoulder) on IL.
    — Indians put P Jefry Rodriguez (shoulder) on IL.
    — Royals put 3B Hunter Dozier (right side) on IL.

    6) Northern Arizona basketball coach Jack Murphy is leaving the Lumberjacks to become the associate head coach at Arizona, his alma mater. Murphy went 78-149 in seven years at NAU and was going into the final year of his contract, which means he was probably getting fired next spring unless the Lumberjacks won the Big Sky, so he jumped ship before he got pushed.

    5) Odds to win college basketball national title next April:
    8-1— Michigan State
    10-1— Kentucky, Duke
    12-1— Kansas, Memphis
    16-1— North Carolina, Villanova
    20-1— Gonzaga, Louisville, Oregon, Virginia

    4) Kawhi Leonard filed a lawsuit against Nike on Monday in California in an attempt to reclaim control over a logo Leonard says he created, when he was a Nike client. Leonard signed a deal with New Balance earlier this season.

    3) UConn added grad transfer QB Micah Lemon from NC State, which prompted Huskies’ QB Marvin Washington to announce he was leaving UConn. Huskies’ WR Keyion Dixon also said he would be leaving the UConn program.

    2) RJ Hampton was a highly sought after basketball recruit who instead chose to play pro ball in New Zealand this season, which is his business, but supposedly he signed the pro contract a full month before he told the college teams that he wouldn’t be playing for them.

    Why would someone do this? Once he signed the contract, there was no going back. Lot of people, both coaches/other recruits, were waiting for his decision so the next domino in the process could fall.

    Without knowing all the fact, it does seem very selfish.

    1) St. Louis Blues have never won a Stanley Cup, but four of their former coaches have won 17 of them; their series with Boston now stands at 2-2. Blues have an interim coach (Craig Berube).

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-05-2019 at 11:19 AM.

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    Finals G3 - Raptors at Warriors
    Kevin Rogers

    The Warriors return to the Bay Area knotted up at 1-1 with the Raptors, but Golden State hopes to field a healthy enough squad moving towards its fourth championship in five seasons.

    After Toronto captured Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the Raptors were poised for a 2-0 series advantage before traveling west to daunting Oracle Arena. Toronto built a 58-48 lead with 1:03 remaining in the first half of Game 2, but Golden State crept back to cut the deficit to five at halftime thanks to six late points from Stephen Curry.

    That spurred an incredible 20-0 run by the defending champions as the Warriors eventually grabbed a 72-59 lead on their way to a 109-104 victory as 2 ½-point underdogs. Golden State had to sweat out the final five minutes after taking 106-94 advantage as Toronto roared back with a 10-0 run before Andre Iguodala’s three-pointer with seven seconds left to steal home-court advantage back.

    Now on to the walking wounded Warriors. Kevin Durant will miss his eighth consecutive game with a calf strain, which shouldn’t be a big surprise. Curry fought through an illness in the first half but finished with 23 points in spite of 6-of-17 shooting from the floor. Klay Thompson suffered a hamstring injury and still managed a team-high 25 points as his status is up in the air for Game 3. Center Kevon Looney will be on the shelf with a broken collarbone after playing 10 scoreless minutes.

    The Raptors were paced by Kawhi Leonard’s 34 points, although nearly half those points (16) came from the foul line. The unexpected breakout games from Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol in the series opener didn’t carry over to Game 2 as Siakam’s production dropped from 32 to 12 points, while Gasol slipped from 20 points in Game 1 to only six points in Sunday’s defeat.

    Toronto is making its first trip to Oracle Arena since December 12 as the Raptors dominated the Warriors, 113-93 as eight-point underdogs. The Raptors cruised to their first win in Oakland since 2004 as Leonard sat out due to injury, while Curry and Thompson combined for 24 points, including 2-of-13 from three-point range.

    The Warriors have failed to cover in five of eight home playoff games, while taking the court at Oracle Arena for the first time since May 16 against Portland in the Western Conference Finals. Golden State owns a 6-2 home record in the playoffs with the last loss coming to the Clippers in Game 5 of the opening round. During this five-year stretch of playing in the NBA Finals, the Warriors are 9-3 at home with the most recent defeat occurring in Game 7 back in 2016 against Cleveland.

    The Raptors have posted a 4-4 SU/ATS record away from Scotiabank Arena in the playoffs, as half of those wins came at Orlando in the opening round. Toronto won once at Philadelphia in the second round and captured Game 5 at Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals, but all four losses are by eight points or more, including two defeats by 20 points or more.

    The total for Game 3 opened at 214 at BookMaker.eu and the number has dropped to 212. Chris David weighed in on Sunday’s improbable ‘under’ result in Game 2 and offered up his thoughts on Wednesday’s line, which he believes could be and should be lower by tip-off.

    He said, “Bettors taking the ‘under’ (213 ½) in Game 2 were gifted a lucky win and those taking the ‘over’ certainly are still stewing over the loss. Despite going cold in the third quarter, Toronto still managed to put up 21 points. While that drought was costly, it was Golden State’s finish in the fourth quarter that really killed ‘over’ wagers. The Warriors scored 21 points in the final 12 minutes but they only scored five points in the last six minutes. Injuries certainly played a major factor for Golden State’s offense and the battle of attrition can’t be overlooked for Game 3.”

    “The Warriors won’t have Durant again for Game 3 and Thompson is expected to go but if he’s not 100 percent, you’re betting on role players to make shots again. After watching the Clippers explode for 135 and 129 points in the first round at Oracle, the Warriors have found their form defensively at home. In their last five games, they’ve only allowed 102.6 PPG. Fortunately for Golden State, the Raptors offense hasn’t traveled well in the postseason. Nick Nurse’s club is averaging 101.3 PPG away from home in the playoffs and that’s led to a 6-2 ‘under’ mark. The Team Total (103 ½) for Toronto looks low but based on what we’ve seen, it probably should be 102,” David added.

    Going back to the 2016 playoffs, Toronto has watched the ‘under’ go 17-8-2 on the road in the playoffs. Golden State saw the ‘under’ go 8-7 at home during the regular season versus teams from the Eastern Conference and that included the outcome of Toronto’s 113-93 win at Oracle Arena on Dec. 12. That total closed at 226 ½, which shows you the drastic difference between regular season and postseason numbers.

    NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his thoughts on Game 3, “This looks like the best opportunity for the Raptors to win a game at Oracle, especially with Durant ruled out and likely to be part of the equation in Game 4. With Thompson limited and DeMarcus Cousins and Andrew Bogut getting extended minutes with Looney out, the Raptors have to use their speed to try and make plays and create turnovers in order to swing this Game 3.”

    “My expectation is that we’ll see Serge Ibaka play a huge role in this one, but Leonard and Kyle Lowry have to set the tone with a strong first quarter. Fred VanVleet’s defense on Curry was an immense part of Toronto’s success at home, so he’ll have to carry that solid play over to Oakland. Given the guys coach Nurse has to rely on to be successful, we should see small ball become their primary weapon, which may lead to the highest-scoring contest in the series. Golden State should see reserves like Alfonzo McKinnie and Quinn Cook feel more comfortable in familiar surroundings, which should also contribute to more points on the scoreboard,” Mejia notes.

    The Warriors currently sit as 4 ½-point favorites at most sports books, while the total is hovering between 212 ½ and 213. Wednesday’s game tips off at 9:07 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ABC.

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    525Toronto -526 Golden State
    TORONTO is 109-149 ATS (-54.9 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, June 5


    Toronto @ Golden State

    Game 525-526
    June 5, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    130.036
    Golden State
    129.051
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 1
    222
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 5 1/2
    213
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (+5 1/2); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, June 5


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TORONTO (71 - 31) at GOLDEN STATE (70 - 30) - 6/5/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TORONTO is 216-270 ATS (-81.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 43-55 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 36-49 ATS (-17.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 19-29 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 53-68 ATS (-21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 35-50 ATS (-20.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 20-29 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 4-3 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 5-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Short Sheet

    Wednesday, June 5





    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, June 5


    Thompson tweaked him hamstring in Game 2, is a ?? here. Warriors opened 2nd half on 18-0 run in 109-104 win in Game 2, their first win in four tries vs Toronto this season. Curry was still only 6-17 from floor in Game 2, is 14-35 for series. Raptors lost three of last four visits to Oakland, but won in OT here in November. Non-Leonard Toronto starters were 14-43 from floor in Game 2; their subs were +19, starters -44. Toronto was just 11-38 on arc in Game 2, after going 13-33 in Game 1. Eight of last ten series games went over the total.




    NBA

    Wednesday, June 5


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Toronto Raptors
    Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Toronto is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games on the road
    Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games on the road
    Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
    Toronto is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Golden State
    Toronto is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing Golden State
    Toronto is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Toronto is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Golden State's last 19 games at home
    Golden State is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
    Golden State is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 10 games when playing Toronto
    Golden State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Toronto
    Golden State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Golden State's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-05-2019 at 11:19 AM.

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    Warriors head into Game 3 vulnerable, yet pressure is on Raptors
    Shaun Powell

    Tied at 1-1, the Warriors and Raptors will battle for the advantage in Game 3 on Wednesday.

    * Tonight on ABC: Game 3, Raptors vs. Warriors (9 ET)

    OAKLAND, Calif. -- The two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors will be of divided attention here in the next few days. They’ll be occupied by Game 3 of The Finals … and Game 1 of Kevin Durant’s rehabilitation.

    The two go hand-in-hand, actually, and hold equal importance. With untimely injuries threatening to delay the Warriors’ third straight title or downright prevent it from happening, the club teeters on edge, unsure whether its next step will be on the gas pedal or a banana peel.

    Klay Thompson is iffy for Wednesday because of a gimpy hamstring that cut short his floor time in Game 2, which the Warriors managed to win anyway. He did some light shooting on the eve of Game 3 against the Raptors and, Klay being Klay, counted himself in after three days’ rest. But it’s not really up to him, is it? The Warriors' medical staff will make the ruling on a tendon that’s moody and doesn’t always cooperate with the human attached to it. This all depends on what side of the bed the hamstring lands on Wednesday morning.

    Kevon Looney, the fast-developing big man who has been a pleasant playoff surprise, is done for the summer with a cartilage fracture in his collarbone area. At least in this case, his loss is minimized by the re-emergence of DeMarcus Cousins, back from two months off with a bum quad muscle and feeling frisky about it and his encouraging effort in Game 2.

    OK, now here’s the elephant in the emergency room: What does the future of The Finals hold for Durant, MIA for roughly a month now, who has been ruled out for Wednesday?

    Durant didn’t practice with the team Tuesday morning, but he did go through an individual workout that afternoon. There is no scheduled team practice on Thursday, the only off-day between Games 3 and 4 at Oracle Arena. Yet all signs point to Durant putting his body through a workout/practice/scrimmage at some point between now and Friday’s Game 4 because coach Steve Kerr said the former MVP is “ramping up” his workouts.

    It’s safe to say the Warriors will be interested spectators for that one, biting their fingernails to the knuckle, although Kerr indicated Durant’s availability for The Finals is more “when” than “if.” That means Durant has given them some reason to feel optimistic about Friday if not Game 5 in Toronto.

    “Klay and Kevin, we’re very hopeful we’re going to get them back out there,” Kerr said.

    In a worst-case scenario, the Warriors in Game 3 would be without two players averaging more than 50 points combined in the postseason, and their scoring and defensive presence is impossible to replace. That would put them in a tough spot, needing to rely on replacements who aren’t familiar with, or quite capable of, carrying that amount of minutes with impact.

    Yes, it’s true the Warriors finished Game 2 without either player and managed to win. Yet, no disrespect to the champs, that’s a big chore to do for four full quarters and against a solid defensive team like the Raptors.

    Even if Thompson plays, will he be healthy enough to supply the energy and flexibility needed to perform his usual top-notch defense and running through screens for his jumper?

    “If I can just be out there even at 80 percent, I still think I can be very effective,” Thompson said. “From the progress I've made these last two days, I'm very encouraged that I'll be able to go out there. As long as nothing is torn or really injured, I'm not too fearful of it because, knock on wood, I've been very blessed with not very many traumatic injuries in my career. I don't think this one is of greatest concern. It's just the day and age we live in where little things can just grow to be big problems, but I don't think this will be one of them.”

    How would a diminished or missing Thompson affect the Warriors? Basically, Stephen Curry could not afford to be anything less than MVP-ish. He’d see double-and triple-teams thrown his way by the Raptors, causing him to take tougher shots than normal. In that situation, as the Warriors’ only volume scorer and shooter, Curry could feel overwhelmed and force the issue.

    Cousins would be required to ratchet up his shooting and intensity on offense, but will he stay clear of foul trouble, which would put a crimp in his playing time?

    Finally, the Warriors would lean more on Shaun Livingston, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and Quinn Cook than normal. Cook made a pair of important shots in Game 2 after Thompson limped off and could be an X-factor (or at least he’d need to be for Golden State’s sake).

    “Our team is very adaptable,” Kerr said. “We have a lot of versatility. What it requires is bench players being ready to step up, like they always are, and guys just playing hard and playing together. I think you have to be fearless, too, which our team is. You can't worry about anything. You just go out there and play and compete and let it fly and whatever happens, happens.”

    And then there’s Toronto. A weakened or missing Thompson would be an opportunity they simply couldn’t afford to blow. Rarely does a gift like this present itself in The Finals and the Raptors must seize it if it happens.

    In such a situation, the Raptors would be wise to occupy Curry and dare others to produce for four quarters. If Thompson plays, they’d be best to take advantage by running him ragged through screens on defense, putting that hamstring to the test. That would be one less player with high defensive credentials for Kawhi Leonard to deal with.

    Assuming that scoring will be an issue for the Warriors, the Raptors must get a bounce-back game from Pascal Siakam (who regressed from 32 points to 12) and more punch from Kyle Lowry (six baskets total for the series) to make it tough if not impossible for the Warriors to keep up.

    If the Raptors have any shot at winning this title, they must win at least one game at Oracle, and from a practical standpoint, Game 3 is the most inviting. They may never see the Warriors this vulnerable, this ripe for the taking again.

    “I think we come into a sense of urgency, period,” said Lowry, “no matter the situation. We want to be the first to four, and every game is an urgent game. You're in the NBA Finals, so it doesn't matter. They still have professional basketball players down there, and they're really talented basketball players. So you still got to be ready to go out there and play your butt off and play hard.”

    The Warriors do not feel the same level of urgency because they’re not down 0-2, and the next two games are at home, and the core group is championship tested. As they demonstrated in Game 2, they don’t get rattled by tense championship games, even with Thompson and Durant off the floor.

    They also know, or at least feel strongly, that Thompson and Durant will suit up soon.

    “If there’s pain, it will be a no-go (for Game 3) because of the position we’re in,” Thompson said. “This could be a longer series, so there's no point in trying to go out there and re-aggravate it and potentially keep myself out of the whole entire Finals instead of just one game.”

    The Warriors might not get much sympathy from a basketball world that perhaps feel the champs are finally getting their just due. Everyone saw them play the 2015 Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers without Kevin Love and all but one game without Kyrie Irving. In the 2017 Western Conference finals, Leonard, then with the San Antonio Spurs, went down after lighting it up for most of Game 1. And how can anyone forget Chris Paul missing the Houston Rockets' final two games of the 2018 West finals?

    Not saying those were the reasons for three championships in four years; still, all of those misfortunes suffered by others favored the Warriors.

    But who’s keeping score?

    “There's a certain amount of luck involved with this, and we know that,” Kerr said. “We have been on both sides of that. Some of our opponents have suffered injuries. We have suffered injuries. It's just part of the deal. You just keep pushing forward.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-05-2019 at 11:20 AM.

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