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Thread: Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/17

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    Default Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/17

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, May 17

    Good Luck on day # 137 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    Six fastest-working pitchers in major leagues:

    6) Mike Foltynewicz, Braves 21.4 seconds between pitches

    5) Brett Anderson A’s, 21.2

    4) Luis Castillo Reds, 21.0

    3) Erik Swanson Mariners, 20.6

    2) Steven Matz Mets, 20.4

    1) Wade Miley Astros, 19.1


    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

    13) Warriors 114, Trailblazers 111— Is it getting to the point where you ask if Kevin Durant has played his last game for Golden State? Warriors lead this series 2-0; Durant isn’t close to getting back on floor, and in this series at least, they don’t even seem to need him

    12) In 2020, ESPN is opening a studio at The Linq Hotel along the Las Vegas Strip; Caesars will serve as ESPN’s official odds data supplier across TV and digital programming and content.

    11) Arizona Cardinals’ 8-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Peterson is being suspended the first six games of the 2019 season for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy.

    10) Scott Pioli resigned as assistant GM of the Atlanta Falcons this week; he said he wasn’t fired, isn’t sick and doesn’t have another job lined up, but there is speculation that he might be going to TV or is a candidate for the vacant Jets’ GM job.

    9) Quote of the Day, part 2; Chris Sale talking about getting pulled with 17 strikeouts:

    “I don’t think there’s any pitcher on the planet … you’ve got 17 punchouts, you definitely want to go out for [another] inning. I’d love to have gone back out there, but I respect him as much as anybody on the planet and I’ll never question anything he does, even in regard to that.”

    8) Ian Anderson is the Braves’ #1 pitching prospect, drafted in the first round of the 2016 draft out of Shenendehowa HS here in the Albany area. So far this season, Anderson is 2-3, 4.04 in eight starts in the AA Southern League; he’s walked 28 hitters in 35.2 IP, which is alarming.

    He is only 21, but he’s going to have to cut down on those walks to succeed in the majors.

    7) Here is the difference in this year’s A’s and last year’s A’s (so far):
    — 2018— A’s were 46-29 in games decided by one or two runs.
    — 2019— A’s are 10-13 in games decided by one or two runs.

    Beating a cruddy team like Detroit 17-3 doesn’t impress me; holding a one-run lead in the 9th inning is very impressive, especially on the road.

    6) College basketball transfer portal:
    — Texas Tech G Khavon Moore bolts to Clemson.
    — Oregon big man Miles Norris bolts to UC Santa Barbara.

    5) Bruins 4, Hurricanes 0— Boston sweeps Eastern Conference final 4-0, moves on to the Stanley Cup final against the San Jose-St Louis survivor.

    4) Brown University offered 7th grade QB Ryan Downes, a 6’3 13 year-old who is at IMG and already generating some interest from recruiters.

    Not sure what they actually “offered” him, since Ivy League schools do not give athletic scholarships, but no doubt they have their ways of paying for the right kid, if he expresses an interest in their school.

    3) Yale did a smart thing and signed basketball coach James Jones to a contract extension thru 2026. Last five years, Yale is 52-18 in Ivy League games, making NCAA’s twice in last four years.

    2) Gene Simmons of KISS gave a news conference in the Pentagon briefing room Thursday.

    Seriously, he did. He was there to help promote military service and thank the service members who were there.

    Simmons’ mother survived a Nazi concentration camp when she was 14, and because of that he has always been a big supporter of our troops, so good for him for doing that.

    1) Happy birthday to the great Joe Tait, the voice of Cleveland sports when I was a kid, who turned 82 this week. Loved listening to him call Cavalier games, and also Indian games on WWWE with Herb Score as his baseball analyst.

    Before cable TV became a big thing (yes, I am that old), listening to games on the radio was fun for this teenager. WWWE was within range of upstate New York, so listened to Mr Tait a lot.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-17-2019 at 12:58 PM.

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    545Toronto -546 Milwaukee
    TORONTO is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games in the current season.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Friday, May 17


    Toronto @ Milwaukee

    Game 545-546
    May 17, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    127.823
    Milwaukee
    130.031
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 2
    206
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 7
    215 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (+7); Under





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Friday, May 17


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TORONTO (66 - 29) at MILWAUKEE (69 - 23) - 5/17/2019, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games on Friday nights this season.
    TORONTO is 42-55 ATS (-18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 23-35 ATS (-15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in all games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) in home games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all playoff games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 69-112 ATS (-54.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 10-8 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 10-8 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, May 17


    Milwaukee outscored Toronto 32-17 in 4th quarter Wednesday, winning Game 1 108-100; their bench played 79:00, Toronto’s played 40:00. Raptors played on Sunday, looked tired at end of Game 1. Road side won seven of last 11 Toronto-Milwaukee games; Raptors won/covered four of last six visits to Wisconsin. Five of last eight series games went over. Toronto split its last six road games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. Milwaukee won its last five games, scoring 116.6 ppg; they covered five of their last six home games. Over is 5-4 in their last nine games.




    NBA

    Friday, May 17


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Toronto Raptors
    Toronto is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Toronto is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto's last 14 games
    Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Toronto is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games on the road
    Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Toronto is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Milwaukee Bucks
    Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
    Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
    Milwaukee is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-17-2019 at 01:00 PM.

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    G2 - Raptors at Bucks
    Tony Mejia

    Eastern Conference Finals – Game 2 -- Bucks lead 1-0

    No. 2 Toronto at No. 1 Milwaukee (-6.5/216), TNT, 8:35 p.m. ET


    May 14 – Bucks (-6.5) 108 vs. Raptors 100 (Over 218)

    Jan. 31 – Bucks (+2.5) 105 at Raptors 92 (Under 232)
    Jan. 5 – Raptors (+5.5) 123 at Bucks 116 (Over 227)
    Dec. 9 – Bucks (+5) 104 at Raptors 99 (Under 229.5)
    Oct. 29 – Bucks (+2) 124 vs. Raptors 109 (Over 222.5)

    The Raptors have a lot to be encouraged about considering how well they played in Wednesday’s series opener, leading most of the way before a fourth-quarter collapse ruined the night. The Bucks scored the game’s final 10 points to not only win but cover despite trailing for 37 of 48 minutes. As a result, Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals become entirely about resolve.

    Both for Toronto and for bettors.

    Everyone expecting the Raptors to fold like tents because it’s what they’ve done in the past and what happened in Game 1 is overlooking the fact this is a relatively new group. Kyle Lowry is the biggest name left from the teams associated with all the past failures against LeBron James. If you believed in Toronto prior to seeing it cough up it appeared to have wrapped up for roughly 47 minutes, you probably shouldn’t bail.

    What remains to be seen is whether the Raptors are equally as resilient. With a trip home on tap regardless of Friday night’s result, a team that has thrived in front of their fans all season will be favored in each of the next two contests in Canada. That makes Game 2 more of a building block than a must-win. It would be the equivalent of a free-roll had they held on to win the series opener, but Kawhi Leonard couldn’t find a fourth-quarter rhythm and Pascal Siakam continued a rough stretch since being injured early in the series against the 76ers as Milwaukee used a 32-17 edge over the final 12 minutes to rally.

    The Bucks are now 9-1 this postseason. The Raptors looked very capable of taking them down as they look to reach the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. Both teams could have played much better but also had x-factors emerge with great games as Lowry finished with 30 points on 10-for-15 shooting and Milwaukee center Brook Lopez put together his best game of these playoffs, leading the way with 29 points on a team-high 21 field goal attempts. Lopez shot 28 percent from the field and averaged just 5.4 points in the series against the Celtics and scored 12.8 points over the course of the Round 1 sweep over the Pistons.

    Lopez’s effort came out of nowhere but was clearly part of Mike Budenholzer’s gameplan since he fired up 11 3-pointers despite coming into the conference finals on a 6-for-28 run from beyond the arc over his last six games. He made four and took full advantage of the space Toronto’s defense afforded him, aggressively hunting shots whenever open.

    Giannis Antetokounmpo got to the free-throw line 12 times and finished with 24 points and 14 rebounds as the Raptors largely sold out to ensure that he saw multiple bodies whenever he drove towards the rim. Toronto got back defensively and kept Lowry from being punished on switches as Marc Gasol put in strong work and the perimeter guys dropped off Eric Bledsoe to help, daring him to shoot. The Bucks point guard struggled to adjust and finished with just nine points, shooting 3-for-12 from the field while missing all six of his 3-point attempts.

    Bledsoe’s inability to get going in the first half put the Bucks in a hole, while Lowry doing the heavy lifting after Leonard slowed down after a big performance through the first three quarters helped make up for Siakam’s struggles. The likely Most Improved Player award winner for this past season has tried to compensate for not having his usual explosiveness following a calf contusion in Game 3 of the conference finals.

    Marc Gasol finished just 2-for-11 from the field in Game 1 and has averaged just 6.7 points over the last three games, shooting 29.6 percent. Both the 76ers and Bucks have taken their chances playing off him and daring him to shoot the 3-pointer. He’s on a 3-for-14 run from beyond the arc. Danny Green and Fred VanVleet have also been in prolonged slumps, making it difficult to get behind a Game 2 revival.

    NBA expert Kevin Rogers points out that it’s also difficult to fade the Bucks due to how ruthless they’ve been in putting teams away, handling business for those who have laid the points with the East’s top seed in this postseason.

    “It’s tough to go against Milwaukee simply due to its 9-0 ATS record in its nine playoff victories. The Bucks pulled one out in Game 1 they had no business covering, but did so with a late 10-0 run to improve to 4-1 this season against the Raptors,” said Rogers. “Toronto has struggled on the road since the second round by losing three of the past four away from Scotiabank Arena, putting together a subpar 2-5 ATS record the last seven games overall.

    “After a game in which Toronto and Milwaukee each had one 30-plus-point quarter, the expectation is these two Eastern powers will surpass the total of 216, which is nearly three points lower than the Game 1 closing total.”

    After watching the ‘under’ cash, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 215 for Game 2 and saw it bet up a point. VegasInsider.com totals experts Chris David understands the adjustment but doesn’t agree with the move.

    “Including Wednesday’s outcome, the Raptors have now watched the ‘under’ go 10-3 in this year’s playoffs, which includes a 5-1 mark on the road. You can’t dismiss those results but lowering the total three points from 218 to 215 is too much of a drop in my opinion,” David said. “The opener had a nice pace and total bettors playing the ‘over’ in both the first quarter (53 ˝) and the first-half (107) connected as Toronto built a 59-51 lead at the break. As we’ve seen many times, the game slowed down considerably in the second-half, more so on Toronto’s end as it was held to 41 points in the final two quarters and it was scoreless in the final 3:30 minutes of the game. The production from the Raptors crushed the ‘over’ for the game and it also helped the ‘under’ (112) connect in the second-half.”

    Including Game 1, Milwaukee has now seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 at home in the playoffs and the total results for the Bucks are 5-5 overall. David agrees with Rogers and expects points from both clubs on Friday.

    “The 108 points scored by the Bucks in Game 1 was the second-lowest effort of the postseason for the club. As good as Toronto’s defense has been in the playoffs, the results on Wednesday had everything to do with Milwaukee missing shots as it went 11-of-44 (25%) from 3-point land,” David said. “Outside of Malcolm Brogdon (50%), none of the Bucks connected at a high rate from distance, including Lopez (36%), who finished with a team-high 29 points. Outside of Lowry (7-of-9), nobody on Toronto connected from the outside. Will that change?

    “The Raptors haven’t been great offensively outside of Canada in this year’s playoffs but two of their better efforts came in their second road matchups (Game 4) at both Orlando and Philadelphia in the first two rounds. Along with playing the Game 2 ‘over’ (215), I would also lean towards Milwaukee’s Team Total Over (111 ˝).”

    Milwaukee ended up scoring its lowest total in a win this postseason and must now adjust to facing a team that finished fourth in defensive rating during the regular season. The Bucks were first and continue to lead in that category if you take into account solely postseason numbers. The Raptors rank second in defensive rating in these playoffs despite minimal production from their bench. VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Norman Powell were the only Toronto reserves to see the floor, but shot just 5-for-15 from the field (2-for-8 from 3-point range) in getting outscored 22-12 by Bucks’ backups. Brogdon outscored the Raptors’ bench by himself with his 15 points. The 'under' is on an 11-3 run over Toronto's last 14 games and is 4-2 over the last six involving Milwaukee.

    After largely dominating Detroit and Boston, the Bucks felt that battling through Wednesday's adversity made them better. They improved to 4-1 SU and ATS when falling behind by double-digits this postseason. Meanwhile, Toronto fell for the first time when building a halftime lead. The fourth quarter of Friday night’s game is going to be pivotal since it needs to see guys step up prior to taking the series back to Canada. Outside of Lowry, the Raptors shot 0-for-15 from the field in the fourth quarter, so a number of guys will have something to prove if Toronto reaches the final quarter with the outcome still in the balance.

    Leonard went quiet in the fourth but still became the 14th player in NBA history to amass over 400 points over his team’s first 13 playoff games. He consciously let teammates get going early and wasn’t as aggressive as he was in Game 7 of the Philly series but still managed 31 points despite shooting just 1-for-5 from 3-point range. Look for a higher volume of shots to help produce an ‘over’ on his individual scoring prop as I’d expect him to score a minimum of 35 points in Friday’s Game 2.

    Toronto will host the third installment of the Eastern Conference finals on Sunday night.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-17-2019 at 01:01 PM.

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    Raptors at Bucks NBA betting picks and predictions: Bucks boosted by bench
    Monique Vág

    Malcolm Brogdon and the Bucks are 6.5-point favorites against Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Finals matchup.

    The Raptors and Bucks both struggled to hit their shots in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Finals matchup in a 108-100 Milwaukee victory.

    The Bucks rode their bench to pull of a fourth quarter victory and will hope to put the Raptors on the ropes with a win in Game 2. We break down the odds and give our predictions and best bets for this grudge match.

    TORONTO RAPTORS AT MILWAUKEE BUCKS (Milwaukee -6.5, 215.5)

    Series Price: Bucks -455/Raptors +341

    QUICK HITTER

    The opening shot of the game was made in Game 1 of the series thanks to a jump shot by Giannis Antetokounmpo. Prior to that, in the most recent five games versus the Raptors, the first shot was either heavily contested or a miss from Toronto.

    Both defenses have been solid in the opening part of games all season.

    PREDICTION: Will the first attempted field goal be made? - No.

    FIRST HALF BET

    Toronto used the first quarter in Game 1 to build up an 11-point lead. Although Milwaukee struggled early on, the Bucks have the second-best offense in the first half averaging 60.5 points a game and surrendering only 54.8.

    Milwaukee showed in Game 1 how dangerous their offense can be when it gets going, ending the game with 32 points in the final quarter. Look for that success to carry over.

    PREDICTION: First half - Over 104.5

    TEAM/PLAYER PROP

    The Bucks average 119 points per game on their home court and were held to just 39.8 percent shooting from the floor and 25 percent from beyond the arc on Wednesday. Despite their poor shooting stats, they still managed to put up 108 points.

    If Milwaukee average anywhere near the 48.7 percent shooting from the floor that they’ve averaged at home this season, they should comfortably surpass their team total tonight. Especially if the Bucks play at the same fast pace they did last game.

    PREDICTION: Milwaukee Bucks team total Over 111.5 points

    FULL GAME TOTAL

    Game 1 was a very poor shooting performance from both sides with both teams shooting below 40 percent from the floor. The shot attempts were very high though, as both teams played with a much faster pace than they usually average with both teams taking more than 90 field goal attempts.

    If the shot attempts are anywhere near what they were in the opening game, this total is too low.

    PREDICTION: Over 215.5

    FULL GAME SIDE

    Toronto almost took the opening game on the road and blew a big lead in the fourth quarter. It was promising to see Kyle Lowry put up the best shooting performance of his career in the postseason going 10 of 15 from the floor and connecting on seven 3-pointers for 30 points in Game 1.

    Despite that, the Raptors bench once again gave them no help, and that really could make all the difference in the series with the Bucks now getting back Malcolm Brogdon and getting big minutes from George Hill. Look for Milwaukee to cover again.

    PREDICTION: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

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