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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/16

  1. #1
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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/16

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, May 16

    Good Luck on day # 136 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    XFL head coaches; league starts play in 2020:

    — Dallas- Bob Stoops

    — Houston- June Jones

    — Los Angeles- Winston Moss

    — New York- Kevin Gilbride

    — St Louis- Jonathan Hayes

    — Seattle- Jim Zorn

    — Tampa Bay- Marc Trestman

    — Washington- Pep Hamilton


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) New Jersey Jets fired GM Mike Maccagnan Wednesday; first-year coach Adam Gase will serve as interim general manager. Jets are 24-40 the last four years, but…….

    …….it is May 16, three weeks AFTER the draft.

    If you were going to fire the GM, shouldn’t this have happened BEFORE the draft?

    12) Not sure why the NBA paraded prospective draftees out to the draft lottery Tuesday; they had egg on their face when New Orleans won the lottery and Zion Williamson was ushered out of camera’s view pretty quickly. It was apparent that being a Pelican isn’t his goal in life.

    All winter we had it shoved down our throats by ESPN how great a kid Zion is, blah, blah, blah. Well, if he is such a great kid, he goes to New Orleans and helps the Pelicans win games, while he is paid very handsomely, and increases his bankroll with a huge sneaker contract.

    Steph Curry has played in Oakland the last 10 years and makes $500,000 a game, because he worked his butt off and is a great player. He does a ton of commercials. You can get rich anywhere in the NBA; doesn’t have to be New York or Los Angeles.

    11) Bucks 108, Raptors 100— Milwaukee outscored Raptors 32-17 in 4th quarter; Brook Lopez scored 29 points, 13 in fourth quarter. Bucks lead this series, 1-0.

    Milwaukee’s bench played 79:00, Toronto’s played 40:00.

    10) Giants 4, Blue Jays 3— Edwin Jackson started on the mound for Toronto, his 14th MLB team, which is a new major league record.

    9) College basketball transfer portal:
    — Virginia Tech grad transfer Chris Clarke transferred to Texas Tech.
    — Stephen F. Austin grad transfer T.J. Holyfield also transferred to Texas Tech.
    — Minnesota transfer Isaiah Washington committed to Iona.

    8) Central Florida basketball alum Tacko Fall has a 8’ 2 1/4” wingspan, 10’ 2 1/2” standing reach, which means he can grab the rim without jumping. Will be curious where he gets taken in the NBA Draft in June.

    7) Baseball injuries:
    — Twins put C Mitch Garver (ankle) on IL.
    — Rangers put SS Elvis Andrus (hamstring) on IL.
    — New York 3B Miguel Andujar (labrum surgery) is out for the year.

    6) Eldrick Woods didn’t practice at Bethpage Wednesday, a day before the PGA Championship.

    Not sure if this is connected, but Woods is being sued because back in December, a bartender at his restaurant in Florida died in a drunk driving accident, with a .256 BAC, which is really high.

    5) It has been 100 years since an English golfer won the PGA Championship. Just thought you’d like to know.

    4) Seahawks signed QB Geno Smith to help back up Russell Wilson.

    3) Rays 1, Marlins 0— Miami hasn’t scored a run since the third inning on Saturday, thats 24 innings ago. They’ve lost seven games in a row, are 10-31.

    2) Vanderbilt PG Darius Garland, who played four games in college before getting hurt and missing the rest of the season, left the NBA Draft Combine, making people think that Garland “got a promise” from one or more teams that he will get taken in the lottery.

    1) Cubs’ 2B Ben Zobrist took a leave of absence from the team; he is getting divorced from his wife of 14 years. They have three kids, so this is a sad thing for the kids.

    You always think pro athletes have this perfect life; they make a ton of money, they’re famous, but they’re also on the road for 100-120 days a year. Stuff happens. Nothing is perfect.

  3. #3
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    543Portland -544 Golden State
    PORTLAND is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more in the current season.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, May 16


    Portland @ Golden State

    Game 533-534
    May 16, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Portland
    122.811
    Golden State
    126.814
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 4
    227
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 8
    218
    Dunkel Pick:
    Portland
    (+8); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, May 16


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    PORTLAND (61 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (66 - 29) - 5/16/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 92-65 ATS (+20.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    PORTLAND is 96-78 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    PORTLAND is 50-33 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 41-53 ATS (-17.3 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 36-48 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 19-28 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 51-66 ATS (-21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 18-27 ATS (-11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 34-42 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 8-8 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, May 16


    Golden State won Game 1 by 22 without Durant/Cousins; Lillard/McCollum combined to go 11-31 Tuesday- they have to be tired after the 7-game Denver series. Portland won four of last seven games with the Warriors; Blazers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Portland is 3-4 in its last seven road games (3-4 vs spread); over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Six of last ten series games went over. Warriors played six subs 11:00+ Tuesday; Portland’s bench was 7-28 from the floor. Golden State covered two of its last five home games. Over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.




    NBA

    Thursday, May 16


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
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    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Portland is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games
    Portland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
    Portland is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Portland's last 25 games when playing Golden State
    Portland is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Portland is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
    Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Golden State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Golden State's last 18 games at home
    Golden State is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Portland
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Golden State's last 25 games when playing Portland
    Golden State is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against Portland
    Golden State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Portland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Portland


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-16-2019 at 11:24 AM.

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    G2 - Blazers at Warriors
    Kevin Rogers

    Western Conference Finals – Game 2

    No. 3 Portland at No. 1 Golden State (ESPN, 9:05 p.m. ET)


    2018-19 Regular Season (Tied 2-2, Over 2-2)
    Nov. 23 - Warriors (-1.5) 125 vs. Blazers 97 (Over 218.5)
    Dec. 27 – Blazers (+8.5) 110 at Warriors 109 - OT (Under 227)
    Dec. 29 – Warriors (-5) 115 at Blazers 105 (Under 226)
    Feb. 13 – Blazers (+2) 129 vs. Warriors 107 (Over 235)

    Some (or most) may argue that we’ve already witnessed the Western Conference Finals as the Warriors eliminated the Rockets in six games. Golden State is now three wins away from a fifth straight Western Conference title as the Warriors took care of the Trail Blazers in Game 1 on Tuesday, 116-94. The Warriors easily cashed as 7 ½-point favorites and did so without the services of Kevin Durant.

    Golden State closed out Houston without Durant and jumped out to 1-0 lead over Portland with KD sidelined as he continues to nurse a calf injury. Durant will likely miss Game 2, but the Warriors’ squad that went to a pair of NBA Finals without the former Thunder star showed they just were fine in Game 1. Golden State led by seven heading into the fourth quarter, but outscored Portland, 39-23 in the final 12 minutes to improve to 17-1 in playoff series openers under Steve Kerr.

    Only three Warriors posted double-figure scoring numbers in Game 1, led by Stephen Curry’s 36 points, which included nine three-pointers. After being held scoreless in the first half of the series clinching win at Houston, Curry has scored 69 points in past six quarters, while Golden State actually converted more three-pointers (17) in Game 1 than free throws (15).

    Five Blazers scored at least 10 points in the opener, but Portland will not beat Golden State if the backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum continue to combine for 36 points. McCollum put up 17 points after a pair of terrific performances in the last two wins against Denver in the second round (67 points), but Lillard continued to struggle from the floor. The Oakland native did lead Portland with 19 points, but nine of those points came at the foul line, while Lillard shot 4-of-12 and is 7-of-29 in the past two games.

    Total bettors were expecting fireworks in Game 1 as the number closed as high as 221 after an opener of 218. The lean was incorrect and Portland’s inability to connect from the field helped the ‘under’ connect easily. For Game 2, the oddsmakers sent out an opener of 218 and the betting public hasn’t shown a lean one way or another as of Wednesday evening.

    Chris David offered up his total thoughts on the second installment from Oracle Arena. He said, “Playing in the Bay Area in the playoffs has proven to be much more difficult than a regular season game and Portland felt that wrath on Tuesday. The result wasn’t surprising, considering we just watched a more offensively skilled Houston team crumble three times in the conference semifinals after winning there twice during the regular season.”

    “Including the 94 points scored in Game 1, Portland has been held to 101.7 PPG in their last seven trips to Oracle. It’s safe to say that they’ll need to eclipse that average to steal a road win in this series or put on a phenomenal defensive effort. Is it possible? In their three playoff road wins, the Trail Blazers gave up 96, 90 and 98. In the four losses, 120.5 PPG and that includes the 116 allowed on Tuesday.”

    The one positive from the opener for the Blazers is that they got to the free throw stripe 31 times in the loss and they made 27. Another positive for Portland is that it’s bounced back strong off poor shooting nights. Since the All-Star break, the Blazers have been held under 100 points five times which includes Game 1. In the following contest, the club has scored 117, 132, 140 and 119 points. The shots are going to be there, just a matter of making them and I believe Portland will in Game 2. My lean would be to the Blazers Team Total Over (105),” David added.

    The Blazers have lost 14 of their past 15 trips to Oracle Arena since January 2014 as NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his take on Game 2, “The Blazers are likely to change things up from a personnel standpoint, so keep that in mind when betting Game 2. Enes Kanter was productive on the boards and the low block, but the Blazers still had to compensate for his lack of defense with how they defended the perimeter. With Rodney Hood moving around better than expected after Sunday’s knee injury, get used to see him in three-guard lineups and don’t be surprised to see Moe Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu out there as the Blazers go small. The more mobile Zach Collins should continue to see major minutes, so we could see a faster pace with more ball handlers and shooters out on the floor.”

    Since failing to cover all four Game 2’s of the playoffs in Kerr’s first season in 2015, the Warriors own a 10-4 ATS mark in Game 2’s dating back to 2016. Granted, one of those non-covers came in an outright defeat to the Clippers in the first round as 13 ½-point favorites, 135-131. Portland has put together a 1-6 record in its last seven Game 2’s after losing the series opener, but the lone victory came in the second round at Denver.

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