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Thread: Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/14

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    Default Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/14

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, May 14

    Good Luck on day # 134 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    Commencement speakers at colleges around the country this month:

    — Cornell— Bill Nye, the science guy

    — Florida— James Patterson, author

    — Maryland, MIT, Washington U— Michael Bloomberg

    — NC-Greensboro— Ken Jeong, actor

    — Stanford, Tulane— Tim Cook, Apple CEO

    — Wisconsin— JJ Watt


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

    13) John Beilein signed a 5-year deal to coach the Cleveland Cavaliers:
    — Beilein is 66, so worst case scenario for him, he fattens his retirement fund.
    — Beilein is one of 28 coaches in NCAA history (all divisions) with 750+ career wins (754-425); he will be the first of those 28 to coach in the NBA.
    — Beilein’s last losing season was 2009-10 (15-17) at Michigan. He is a very good coach, but the NBA is more about players than coaches.
    — This figures to set off a domino effect of other coaching changes.
    — What %age of college coaches have the itch to try the NBA?

    12) Kawhi Leonard took 39 of Toronto’s 89 shots in Game 7 Sunday; rest of the team was 18-50 (36%) from the floor, and they still won.

    Don’t see lot of NBA games where one team used only two subs, the other one three subs. 76ers’ subs played total of only 27:00 Sunday.

    11) Brett Brown will return as the 76ers’ coach next year; not even sure why this would be an issue, but apparently it was. Who could they hire that would be better?

    10) Justin Thomas (wrist) withdrew from this week’s PGA Championship Monday.

    9) Former Seattle Seahawks punter Jon Ryan is returning to his hometown of Regina, Saskatchewan to punt for the CFL’s Roughriders this summer.

    8) PG recruit Boogie Ellis switched his commitment from Duke to Memphis, as Penny Hardaway establishes himself as one of the best recruiters in the country.

    7) Baseball stuff:
    — A’s activated Mark Canha, DFA’d 1B/DH Kendrys Morales
    — Bronx put P Jonathan Loaisiga (shoulder), 3B Miguel Andujar on IL
    — Detroit put P Tyson Ross on IL.
    — White Sox P Carlos Rodon needs Tommy John surgery, is out for the year.

    6) First-round matchups for the Paradise Jam tournament in November:
    — Valparaiso-Grand Canyon
    — Fordham-Nevada
    — Illinois State-Cincinnati
    — Bowling Green-Western Kentucky

    5) On Sept. 28, 1974, Nolan Ryan threw a no-hitter against the Twins, walking eight and striking out 15- he threw 158 pitches that night. Safe to say you won’t see that happen anytime in the next 10-20 years, at least.

    4) David Letterman is going to be a guest on the Sunday Today show this week; he has this thick gray beard now and looks like he should be on Duck Dynasty instead of the Today Show.

    3) College basketball transfer portal:
    — Pitt grad transfer Malik Ellison bolts to Hartford.

    2) St Louis 4, San Jose 2— Western Conference finals are tied 1-1.

    1) Get well to former President Jimmy Carter, who had surgery for a broken hip today after he fell while leaving his house to go turkey hunting. Mr Carter is 94 years old.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-14-2019 at 12:43 PM.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-14-2019 at 12:44 PM.

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    Conference Finals Trends

    Who's Hot and Who's Not

    Week of May 13th


    After Sunday brought a pair of phenomenal Game 7's in the second round of the NBA playoffs, we've now got the Final Four left in the NBA, and that's where the focus for this piece lies. Those two Game 7's – Portland/Denver and Philadelphia/Toronto brought plenty of emotion with them, as tears of joy and sadness filled both arenas when the final buzzer went off.

    But, as both the Trail Blazers and Raptors get at least a full day off to come down from those historical highs, the betting market is already about 24 hours into the Conference Finals market as it is. Even before the results of those Game 7's were in, everyone knew that Golden State and Milwaukee would be the favorites to ultimately reach in the Finals, but now that the matchups are set, are those the two teams your money should be backing to get there?

    Let's go through a quick history lesson shall we, as this week's Hot/Not piece begins with the “Not” side for once.


    Who's Not

    NBA teams that got to the Conference Finals after winning the 2nd round in seven games are 4-10 straight up (SU) to advance to the NBA Finals; 0-5 SU this decade


    *Disclaimer: The 2006 Conference Finals between Dallas/Phoenix and the 2001 Conference Finals between Philadelphia and Milwaukee have been omitted from that number given that both teams were off seven-game series victories and someone was guaranteed to win/lose.

    As elated as Portland and Toronto fans are today, I hate to be the one to give all that energy a cold bath, but never mind the tough task of getting by Milwaukee or Golden State as the current rosters are constructed, but history isn't on the Blazers or Raptors side either. That's because these teams that need seven games to get out of the second round tend to run out of gas when a Finals berth is on the line.

    That 4-10 SU series record for teams in the same boat that Portland and Toronto find themselves in this year is the definition of paddling upstream. The last five teams – all since 2011 - who were in this exact scenario – including this same Toronto Raptors team in 2016 – failed to take that next step and get to the Finals, and that's the type of history both organizations are fighting against this round.

    Whether it's the fact that the competition gets tougher the further you go, or that these teams have maxed out their energy through the first two rounds when the latter goes the distance, a 28% clip at making the Finals can't be all that encouraging. Oh, and then there is also Giannis Antetokounmpo and the rest of the Bucks to deal with for Toronto, while Portland's tasked with trying to knock off the four-time defending Western Conference champs.

    So don't be surprised to see the favorites start to take some action after the euphoria of those Game 7 wins starts to wear off in both cities. However, it's not like a 4-10 SU series record is a death knell for the Blazers or the Raptors, when in fact, the last time any 2nd Round Game 7 winner made the Finals happened in 2009, when both the Lakers and Magic were able to fight off history and both win their respective Conference Finals matchup. I doubt we see a Portland/Toronto Finals matchup this year, but seeing one of them get through wouldn't be fall out of your chair shocking.


    Who's Hot

    Short Conference Finals series in the NBA when one team is off a seven-game contest


    Using the same data I referenced above, bettors that are interested in playing certain series props like “how many games will the series be” should have two numbers they've locked in on for these Conference Finals: 5 and 6.

    That's because of those same 14 occurrences this century when one Conference Finals team is off a seven-game series (again omitting those 2006 and 2001 matchups), the Conference Finals has only gone the distance once: the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals. There were no sweeps either in that span, meaning that the other 13 matchups ended in either five or six games.

    Of the two, it's six games that's happened the most (9 times) although the more recent numbers have five games being the most common at least this decade – three of five have finished in five games. Whether or not that historical trend actually helps the Blazers and/or Raptors remains to be seen given they will both be at home for a potential Game 6, but with odds for a Game 5 or 6 finish in both conferences floating around in the +200 to +250 range, it's a betting option that should be strongly considered.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-14-2019 at 12:44 PM.

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    533Portland -534 Golden State
    GOLDEN STATE is 34-52 ATS (-23.2 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, May 14



    Portland @ Golden State

    Game 533-534
    May 14, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Portland
    117.947
    Golden State
    133.487
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 15 1/2
    230
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 8
    218
    Dunkel Pick:
    Golden State
    (-8); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Tuesday, May 14


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    PORTLAND (61 - 33) at GOLDEN STATE (65 - 29) - 5/14/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    PORTLAND is 51-43 ATS (+3.7 Units) in all games this season.
    PORTLAND is 50-32 ATS (+14.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    PORTLAND is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 40-53 ATS (-18.3 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 35-48 ATS (-17.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 50-66 ATS (-22.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 32-48 ATS (-20.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 33-42 ATS (-13.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PORTLAND is 8-7 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Tuesday, May 14


    Portland won four of last six games with Golden State; Blazers are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Oakland. Portland split its last six road games (3-3 vs spread); over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Six of last nine series games went over. Warriors beat Houston in six games; Durant is doubtful here. Blazers lost C Nurkic few months ago. Golden State covered once in its last four home games. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Portland is in Western finals for first time since 2000; they won Game 7 in Denver Sunday. Warriors haven’t played since Friday.




    NBA

    Tuesday, May 14


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
    Portland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
    Portland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
    Portland is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 18 of Portland's last 25 games when playing Golden State
    Portland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Portland is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Portland is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Golden State is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
    Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Golden State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Golden State's last 17 games at home
    Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland
    Golden State is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing Portland
    Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
    The total has gone OVER in 18 of Golden State's last 25 games when playing Portland
    Golden State is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against Portland
    Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
    Golden State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Portland


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-14-2019 at 12:45 PM.

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    Series Preview: Blazers face tall task against defending-champion Warriors
    Shaun Powell

    Injuries mark these West finals, a round Blazers haven't reached since 2000

    Two of the NBA's best point guards clash for the Western Conference crown.

    The story within the story of this Western Conference finals matchup will surround one player and maybe two, and it is this: Will Kevin Durant heal quickly enough to make an appearance? Will DeMarcus Cousins? And let's add two more players: Who will Dell and Sonya Curry root for with dueling sons (Stephen Curry on Golden State; Seth Curry on Portland) on opposing rosters?

    Seriously, though, Durant returning from a strained calf (which is the more likely scenario than Cousins) will impact the series greatly in Golden State’s favor. If Cousins recovers from his quad injury as well, then it gets to be a really unfair fight -- and likely a Warriors’ sweep.

    In any event, the Warriors step into this series as a prohibitive favorite, especially if you buy the notion that their Western Conference semfinals series with the Houston Rockets was the unofficial conference championship.

    The Blazers aren’t here by mistake. They just won a Game 7 on the road in Denver, beat Oklahoma City in five games and boast Damian Lillard. Portland's All-Star guard will certainly feel territorial playing in Oakland, having grown up there as a lightly-recruited high school player.

    Yet Lillard seems whipped from his playoff load and was noticeably subpar when he missed 11 of his first 12 shots in Game 7 against Denver and shot below 30 percent on 3-pointers in that series. Also, Rodney Hood is ailing from a hyperextended knee. Maybe this is the time when Jusuf Nurkic’s injury -- he suffered a broken leg in March -- finally catches up to Portland.

    Meanwhile, the Warriors are bringing the usual cast of characters (minus Durant for the time being) and also have home court. Again, if Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green don’t become complacent and overconfident, this could be the least suspenseful conference finals in recent memory -- if it isn’t already.


    Three things to watch

    1. Can Andre Iguodala keep up this pace? It should come as no surprise that Iguodala is feeling frisky in the playoffs, but it’s a bit unexpected given that he’s doing it in 2019. Once again, the 2015 Finals MVP is hitting playoff 3-pointers (42.3 percent) and making key defensive plays, yet this is someone who was essentially in hibernation for six months and looked his age (35). But these days, he's doubling up his regular-season scoring average and and he’s on the floor when it counts.

    2. Is CJ McCollum a bigger worry for the Warriors than Damian Lillard? Maybe it’s now "CJ Time" for the Blazers, as McCollum was downright beastly (and more reliable than Lillard) in their last two games against Denver. McCollum averaged 33.5 points in that span and got the call from coach Terry Stotts for the Blazers’ final play in Game 7, which he secured on a mid-range jumper.

    3. How full will Draymond Green's hands be with Enes Kanter? Although he brings a bum shoulder into this series, Kanter is an aggressive presence around the basket and will force Green to direct his attention squarely on the Blazers’ center, who’s averaging 13 points on 52 percent shooting. Just the same, Green might force Kanter to play defense, the weakest part of his game.


    The number to know

    23.3 -- The Blazers lead the postseason in time of possession, controlling the ball for 23.3 minutes per game. They are not a running team, ranking 24th in the regular season (11.0) and 15th in the playoffs (10.6) in fast break points per game. Only the Orlando Magic took a lower percentage of their shots in the first six seconds of the shot clock, according to Second Spectrum tracking.

    The Warriors ranked sixth in the percentage of their shots that came in the first six seconds of the shot clock (18 percent), third in fast break points per game (19.1), and 29th in time of possession. They will push the ball and look for early offense.

    The champs will also move the ball more than the Blazers. Though the Warriors have two of the best off-the-dribble shooters in the league, they've recorded assists on 66 percent of their baskets, the second highest rate in the postseason. They've led the league in regular-season assist percentageeach of the last four years.

    The Blazers also have two of the league's best off-the-dribble shooters, and they play more like it. Lillard (11.2) and McCollum (10.6) rank third and fourth in pull-up jumpers per game in the postseason and the Blazers rank last in postseason assist percentage, having recorded assists on less than 46 percent of their total buckets.

    This series is a contrast of styles, in more ways than one.

    -- John Schuhmann


    The pick

    The championship experience factor could not be more lopsided in this series, as not only do the Warriors have the heavy advantage, they showed as much in their closeout victory over the Rockets, especially down the stretch. While the Blazers may get the urge to pop bottles just for making it this deep in the playoffs, the next step is even tougher, which they’re about to find out. Warriors in four.


    Series Schedule

    Game 1: Tue, May 14, Portland at Golden State, 9 ET, ESPN
    Game 2: Thu, May 16, Portland at Golden State, 9 ET, ESPN
    Game 3: Sat, May 18, Golden State at Portland, 9 ET, ESPN
    Game 4: Mon, May 20, Golden State at Portland, 9 ET, ESPN
    *Game 5: Wed, May 22, Portland at Golden State, 9 ET, ESPN
    *Game 6: Fri, May 24, Golden State at Portland, 9 ET, ESPN
    *Game 7: Sun, May 26, Portland at Golden State, 9 ET, ESPN

    * - If Necessary
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-14-2019 at 12:47 PM.

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    Series Preview: Similarities abound in Eastern finals matchup
    Steve Aschburner

    From superstar forwards to deep benches, Bucks and Raptors appear evenly matched

    The two best forwards in the East will face off in the conference finals.

    One of these teams is going to fill the void opened by LeBron James’ departure to the Western Conference. For the Raptors, it might seem as if they have a claim on a Finals trip after getting put out by The Man himself the past three postseasons. For the Bucks, the rise to East finalists may strike some as an abrupt jump but, truth be told, they wasted a year of playoff development in 2018, so they’re about where they expected to be by now, too.

    There are similarities between these teams: Both are led by MVP-caliber forwards in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard. Both have solid sidekicks (Khris Middleton and Pascal Siakam) and sturdy veteran point guards (Eric Bledsoe, Kyle Lowry).

    Coaches Mike Budenholzer and Nick Nurse are wrapping up their first seasons with the Bucks and Raptors, respectively. Milwaukee finished the regular season with two more victories and both teams are sitting on eight wins through two playoff rounds.

    Milwaukee and Toronto both finished in the league’s top five offensively and defensively. And both rolled the dice on important in-season moves, with the Bucks adding George Hill and Nikola Mirotic while the Raptors acquired Marc Gasol.

    The differences? Slight. Milwaukee holds home court and is a far superior rebounding team. Toronto creates more turnovers. Over the next 10 days to two weeks, one of these teams will win at least one more game than the other. And that’s why they play them.


    Three things to watch

    1. The Antetokounmpo-Leonard matchup. Both of these All-NBA caliber players make their presence felt on both ends. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be locked into an individual matchup all night. That would be folly, given the offensive load each carries. So Leonard can expect to see Middleton on him and Antetokounmpo will be monitored by Siakam, among others.

    2. Which bench is “mobbier?” Toronto arguably had the best bench in the NBA in 2017-18, but this season Siakam’s move into the starting lineup, assorted injuries and some altered rotations worked against the Raptors’ depth. Milwaukee’s reserves, meanwhile, have dialed up their play as the season and postseason have ground on. Here’s one measure of their effectiveness: When Antetokounmpo has sat in the playoffs, the Bucks have actually done better, outscoring foes by 21 points per 100 possessions. When Leonard sits down, the Raptors are 16 points worse.

    3. Keep one eye on the third guys. It’s possible, over seven games, that Antetokounmpo, Leonard, Middleton and Siakam largely cancel each other out in talent and big plays. If so, each team could find itself looking to its stocky point guard for an edge. Lowry and Bledsoe had inconsistent seasons offensively, but Lowry had a post-All Star bump and some indispensable stretches in the first two rounds. Bledsoe’s defense has earned praise from his coaches all season.


    The number to know

    30.1 -- Through two playoff rounds, the Raptors have been 30.1 points per 100 possessions better offensively with Leonard on the floor (scoring 113.2 per 100) than they've been with him off the floor (83.1). Leonard has been almost everything for the Raptors' offense (the least efficient offense of the four remaining), averaging 31.8 points per game (second most in the postseason) and creating open shots for his teammates via the attention he's drawn from the Orlando and Philadelphia defenses.

    The on-off numbers were very similar in the regular season series vs. the Bucks, when the Raptors were 27.9 points per 100 possessions better offensively with Leonard on the floor (scoring 115.9 per 100) than they were with him on the bench (88.0). The 105.0 points per 100 possessions the Raptors scored over four games against Milwaukee was their third worst mark against any opponent in the regular season. Lowry shot 1-for-20 from 3-point range in the season series.

    Leonard's usage rate of 26.2 percent was his second lowest mark against any Eastern Conference opponent. The Bucks were relatively good at getting the ball out of his hands. But Toronto was still pretty good offensively against the league's No. 1 defense when their best player was in the game. And though Milwaukee won two of the three games in which Leonard and Antetokounmpo played, the Raptors outscored the Bucks by 19 points in 84 total minutes with both stars on the floor.

    -- John Schuhmann


    The pick

    This could swing on the age-old question of rest vs. momentum. The Bucks polished off Boston in five games and will have had a full week between games when the East finals start. A layoff served them well after the first round and every team in the league would opt for rest. But Toronto’s remarkable Game 7 finish in defeating Philadelphia -- Leonard’s four-bounces-on-the-rim, series-clinching buzzer-beater -- might give the Raptors energy to make up for their grindier semifinals series. The conference’s two best teams will duke it out, and it says here they finish ranked the way they enter. Bucks in 6.


    Series Schedule

    Game 1: Wed, May 15, Toronto at Milwaukee, 8:30 ET, TNT
    Game 2: Fri, May 17, Toronto at Milwaukee, 8:30 ET, TNT
    Game 3: Sun, May 19, Milwaukee at Toronto, 7 ET, TNT
    Game 4: Tue, May 21, Milwaukee at Toronto, 8:30 ET, TNT
    *Game 5: Thu, May 23, Toronto at Milwaukee, 8:30 ET, TNT
    *Game 6: Sat, May 25, Milwaukee at Toronto, 8:30 ET, TNT
    *Game 7: Mon, May 27, Toronto at Milwaukee, 8:30 ET, TNT
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-14-2019 at 12:48 PM.

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