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Thread: Cnotes 2019 Triple Crown All You Need To Know About The Big 3 Races News/Notes/Selections !

  1. #16
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    Preakness - Best Bets
    May 16, 2019
    By BetDSI


    Preakness Picks

    The 2019 Preakness Stakes won’t have the Kentucky Derby winner, but it will have Improbable, trained by Bob Baffert and Baffert has won the Preakness seven times. Improbable finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby and the three horses that finished ahead of him are not running in Saturday’s Preakness.

    Only four horses that ran in the Derby are in the Preakness and only two of those, Improbable and War of Will are considered serious threats. Let’s look at Saturday’s race and Preakness picks.

    Preakness Odds at BetDSI

    Improbable +200
    War Of Will +300
    Bourbon War +650
    Alwaysmining +800
    Anothertwistafate +800
    Win Win Win +1000
    Owendale +1100
    Warrior's Charge +1200
    Signalman +1400
    Bodexpress +2000
    Laughing Fox +2000
    Market King +2000

    Favorite

    Improbable was an official disappointment in the Derby, as the horse didn’t make up any ground. The horse was thought to be the best of the Baffert horses in the Derby and yet he did nothing once again. Could it be that Improbable just isn’t as good as advertised? One thing we do know is that we are not taking him at odds of 2-1.

    Contenders

    War of Will is one of the horses that got hurt by Maximum Security going wide in the Derby. Whether or not War of Will would have been good enough to win we don’t know, but the horse gets another chance on Saturday. This is another horse that looks overvalued at odds of 3-1.

    The other three horses listed at single-digit odds at BetDSI are Bourbon War, Alwaysmining and Anothertwistafate. Bourbon War is going to need a fast pace to win and he might get that in the Preakness. The horse was last seen finishing fourth in the Florida Derby, but that race didn’t have a fast pace.

    Alwaysmining is a Maryland-bred horse that will be popular at Pimlico but he is going to be overvalued. He has a trainer and jockey who are known in Maryland but not really known on the national stage. Alwaysmining has been great at Laurel Park, but this is a big step up in class. Anothertwistafate has finished first or second in his last five races and he gets a boost with Jose Ortiz taking over in the irons. The horse has speed and he was right with Owendale in the Lexington.

    Dark Horse

    Owendale came from off the pace to win the Lexington Stakes at odds of 12-1. The horse lost badly to War of Will in the Risen Star Stakes in February, but he has made some solid improvements since then. If Owendale goes off at double-digit odds he is worth considering and he is definitely worth a shot at BetDSI at the current odds of +1100.

    Preakness Field by Post Position and Morning Line Odds
    1. War of Will (4-1) Trainer: Mark Casse, Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
    2. Bourbon War (12-1) Trainer: Mark Hennig, Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
    3. Warrior's Charge (12-1) Trainer: Brad Cox, Jockey: Javier Castellano
    4. Improbable (5-2) Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Mike Smith
    5. Owendale (10-1) Trainer: Brad Cox, Jockey: Florent Geroux
    6. Market King (30-1) Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas, Jockey: Jon Court
    7. Alwaysmining (8-1) Trainer: Kelly Rubley, Jockey: Daniel Centeno
    8. Signalman (30-1) Trainer: Kenny McPeek, Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
    9. Bodexpress (20-1) Trainer: Gustavo Delgado, Jockey: John Velazquez
    10. Everfast (50-1) Trainer: Dale Romans, Jockey: Joel Rosario
    11. Laughing Fox (20-1) Trainer: Steve Asmussen, Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
    12. Anothertwistafate (6-1) Trainer: Blaine Wright, Jockey: Jose Ortiz
    13. Win Win Win (15-1) Trainer: Michael Trombetta, Jockey: Julian Pimentel

    Preakness Picks

    There is no value in taking either of the top two favorites, as Improbable and War of Will are overvalued. We like Bourbon War and we are very surprised he is listed at 12-1 on the morning line. We also think that Owendale is a live longshot and we like the current odds of 11-1 at BetDSI. We’ll take Bourbon War and Owendale to win and also play those two in exacta and trifecta boxes along with Improbable and Win Win Win.

    The 2019 Preakness takes place on Saturday with a start time of 6:48 p.m. Eastern on NBC.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  2. #17
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    Preakness - Long Shots
    May 16, 2019
    By Bookmaker
    by Kyle Markus


    Preakness Stakes Long shots

    In usual years at the Preakness Stakes, all eyes are on the Kentucky Derby winner to see if they can add the second leg of the Triple Crown with a win at Pimlico. This season, though, the field is not going to have the Kentucky Derby winner or several of the other prominent horses.

    Country House won the Kentucky Derby but has been sidelined with a respiratory infection. Maximum Security actually finished first at the Derby but was disqualified and won’t race at the Preakness. Omaha Beach is another prominent horse that won’t be racing.

    So what does it mean? Well, there is still a list of favored horses in the watered-down field, but it also seems like a golden opportunity for some of the longshots to make a move at the Preakness Stakes in horse racing betting.

    The Preakness Stakes will be held at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, Maryland at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 18th, 2019. The race will be nationally televised on NBC.

    We'll have horse racing odds at BookMaker.eu available for every race of 2019.

    Odds Analysis

    Improbable 2-1
    War of Will 3-1
    Alwaysmining 8-1
    Win Win Win 8-1
    Bourbon War 10-1
    Owendale 10-1
    Anothertwistafate 12-1
    Signalman 14-1
    Bodexpress 16-1
    Warriors’s Charge 16-1
    Laughing Fox 20-1
    Market King 20-1

    Longshots

    Improbable is the horse to beat at the Preakness Stakes with War of Will the main expected contender. Improbable is trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, which is a huge advantage because of his unparalleled experience and ability.

    However, some of the other horses in the field figure to be in contention despite the long odds placed by the oddsmakers. Alwaysmining is an 8-1 longshot but is an interesting option. He was bred and raised in Maryland and is familiar with the surroundings. Alwaysmining has won a lot on his career, although it hasn’t always been against the best competition. The talent is undeniable, but the question is if there is enough experience against a talented field.

    Win Win Win was a fashionable pick in the Kentucky Derby but did not live up to expectations. However, the conditions there were not right for a true challenge and he will aim to bounce back in this one. Signalman is an interesting pick at 14-1 odds because he has good closing speed and simply needs to stick close enough to have a chance down the stretch.

    The longshots in this race would love to follow in the footsteps of Country House, who was a 65-to-1 longshot and was able to capture the Kentucky Derby victory, which paid off handsomely for those who backed him. A logjam in the middle of the race helped, as did the rainy conditions. The weather is expected to be better for the Preakness Stakes but anything can happen in an individual race, which is why the underdogs are piquing the interest of horse racing bettors.

    Free Horse Racing Picks

    This is a dirt surface race that is 1 3/16 of a mile, so it will be interesting to see how that layout affects the field of horses. Alwaysmining and Win Win Win might not be in the same category as Improbable or War of Will, but they are decent bets to win the Preakness.

    However, in such a muddled field, it’s best to take the most favorable odds for a horse that has a legitimate shot at shocking the field. Signalman is that horse as he will aim to follow Country House’s lead and stun the rest of the pack in horse racing odds.

    Horse Racing Pick: Signalman to win the Preakness Stakes at 14-1 odds
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  3. #18
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    Bourbon War worth a look in open race
    May 17, 2019
    By The Associated Press


    The last time that the Preakness was run without the Kentucky Derby winner was 1996, when Grindstone was retired because of knee issues. The last time none of the top four Derby finishers went to the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown season was 1951, because none of them were nominated in time.

    All that changes on Saturday.

    Derby winner Country House is sick and not at the Preakness. Maximum Security, the horse that crossed the line first and was then disqualified, isn't at the Preakness. Derby runner-up Code of Honor is being pointed to the Dwyer Stakes in July. Derby third-place finisher Tacitus is likely to return in three weeks at the Belmont.

    That's all good and bad news for the Preakness.

    The bad news: There's no Triple Crown winner this year, and intrigue takes an obvious hit without the Derby principals in the field.

    The good news: For bettors, this race should be as wide open - if not more so - than the Derby was.

    To illustrate how wide-open this race looks, consider that there are some serious and legitimate arguments to be made for Bodexpress to win the Preakness. Bodexpress has never won a race. The last time a maiden won the Preakness was in 1888, yet Bodexpress - second in the Florida Derby to Maximum Security - can't be thrown out here.

    Bodexpress is one of only four horses who is in the Preakness after competing in the Derby. War of Will and Improbable will likely be the top two betting choices at post time, and Win Win Win will be taking plenty of money at the windows as well.

    Some of the newcomers, they just seem out of place.

    Everfast doesn't seem to be aptly named; he won his debut race last year and is 0 for 9 since, with his best finish in that stretch being a second at the Holy Bull in February at 129-1 odds. (Yes, 129-1. He was second to Harvey Wallbanger, who stole the race at a mere 30-1 and they teamed up for an $1,100 return on a $1 exacta.)

    Market King needed five tries to break his maiden and hasn't won since, though attention should be paid whenever the legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas has a horse in the Preakness. Signalman is decent, but wouldn't seem Preakness-worthy.

    But some look very live. Alwaysmining (a Maryland-bred who has won six consecutive races by a combined 36 1/2 lengths), Warrior's Charge (not used to this level of competition, but a winner of two straight and both were in romps), Owendale (a winner last time out and coming off some impressive morning works), and Anothertwistafate (no worse than second in any of his last five starts) all should be in the mix.

    If it sounds like there's no clear-cut favorite, that's because there isn't.

    There just seems to be a lot of horses with similar running styles and similar abilities. It's very even. There's 13 horses, not 20 like in the Derby, so there's less chance for chaos as well. And although some say the inside post isn't favorable at Pimlico, the run to the first turn is so long that the rail wouldn't seem to be much of a deterrent. For that matter, being on the outside isn't such a bad thing either.

    So that means the race probably comes down to which jockey executes the best trip.

    And that would point us to Mike Smith.

    Big Money Mike, as he's now called, takes his turn Saturday aboard Improbable - who'll have his fourth jockey in as many starts. Smith and seven-time Preakness winning trainer Bob Baffert are a lethal combination. Improbable will be bet down big-time, probably going off no better than 3-1, maybe even lower. There won't be any value there.

    He's the safe play.

    But is Improbable the best closer? Probably not. In this race, where plenty of horses are going to expend probably more energy than they should to get near the front early on, the right play is to go with the best finishing kick.

    Bourbon War is that horse.

    He wins over Improbable, Alwaysmining and Market King.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  4. #19
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    At the Gate - Saturday
    May 17, 2019
    By Mike Dempsey


    We whiffed in the Black Eyed Susan (G3) yesterday at Pimlico as my fourth choice Point of Honor got the job done but we still ended up with a nice day with six recomended exactas.

    The payoffs were $44.20, $33.60, $28.40, $27.60, $53.80, and $22.80. That’s a good warm up for Preakness Day.

    There is no Triple Crown up for grabs, and the “two” Derby winners are not in Baltimore. In fact, the first four that crossed the wire under the twin spires are nowhere to be found.

    That won’t stop us. There is a 14-race card on tap today with eight stakes. There are 144 horse entered for this afternoon’s card, with plenty of full fields, outstanding betting races, and a few million up for grabs in the betting pools

    The Preakness over the past decade has not exactly been a great betting race, but this year we have a fairly wide-open field of 13.

    Four wheel back out of the Derby including the duo that will likely go off as the top betting choices—Improbable and War of Will.

    Improbable stalked the early pace in the slop in the Derby, had to wait for some running room briefly losing a spot or two on the far turn and had a clear path in the stretch but could only make a mild bid to finish fifth (placed fourth), beaten 3 1/4 lengths.

    War of Will took the worst of it in the bumping incident at the 5/16th's. Maximum Security veered in starting a chain reaction. It looked for a second as if the colt would go down, but jockey Tyler Gaffalione righted his mount and it looked as if he would go on, but instead he weakened to finish eighth while beaten 4 1/2 lengths.

    Win Win Win and Bodexpress also come back, while we have eight new shooters to the Triple Crown.

    The buzz horse appears to be Bourbon of War, who is 12-1 on the morning line but is going to end up a lighter price. He was fourth in the paceless Florida Derby (G1) in his last outing.

    In the Black Eyed Susan-Preakness double, Point of Honor on Friday won and returned $7.80. The $1 will pays are showing the payout if Improbable wins is $16, War of Will is $23, and Bourbon of War is $26.

    My Best Plays for Saturday includes my 11 strongest plays from Belmont Park and Pimlico.

    Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Belmont Park daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday, and my Preakness Stakes Day and Belmont Stakes Day Reports.

    To purchase my Belmont Park, PImlico and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.

    Here is the opening race from Pimlico to get the day off to a good start:

    PIM Race 1 Md $25,000 (10:30 ET)

    #6 Fernwood Drive 7-2
    #2 Friendly Fire 4-1
    #1 Shelly Island 12-1
    #4 No Worries Mate 5-1

    Analysis: Fernwood Drive tries turf for the first time her in his third career start. The colt showed speed in his debut before weakening to finish sixth against maiden special weight foes. He returned dropping in for a $40,000 tag last out where he was sent off at 6-5 but tired to finish sixth after dueling for the early lead. Reid comes back with the 10-pound bug and this guy has a decent enough turf pedigree. He is by Distorted Humor out of a Gilded Time am that has dropped one other foals to race, no winners to date.

    Friendly Fire just missed in his debut on turf, prompted the early pace and battling on gamely to miss by just a head. The gelding was sent off at 9-2 in his debut in a field of 10. Trombetta hits at a 17% clip (with a +ROI) with second out maidens. He does not need to move forward much off his last effort to be in the mix in this spot. He is the first foal to race out of a Gators N Bears mare, a bit light in turf pedigree.

    Wagering
    WIN: #6 to win at 3-1 or better.
    EX: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6
    TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,6,8

    Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

    BEL Race 11 The Soaring Softly G3 (5:26 ET)

    #2 Feel Glorious 3-1
    #3 Stillwater Cove 5-2
    #7 Entirely 6-1
    #6 Eyeinthesky 5-1

    Analysis: Feel Glorious is perfect in two starts since coming state side and landing with the Clement barn. She beat Alw-1 optional claimers two back off the bench at a mile and then won the Memories of Silver at Aqueduct going 1 1/6 miles, trailing a slow pace and finishing full of run. It looks like this gal will be able to handle the cut back to seven furlongs. She broke her maiden in a 17-horse field at Goodwood last summer at six furlongs. The barn is 31% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.

    Stillwater Cove prompted the early pace, took over the lead and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish in the Limestone Turf Sprint last out at Keeneland going 5 1/2 furlongs on good turf. It was her first go off a five-month layoff. She won the Bolton landing at the Spa last summer in her third career start going 5 1/2 on the turf at the Spa. She should be tighter second off the shelf for Ward.

    Wagering
    WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
    EX: 2,3 / 2,3,6,7
    TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,6,7 / 1,2,3,6,7

    Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Pimlico:

    PIM Race 12 The Dixie G2 (5:39 ET)

    #11 Inspector Lynley 7-2
    #12 Catholic Boy 3-1
    #2 Just Howard 10-1
    #3 Admission Office 12-1

    Analysis: Inspector Lynley tracked the early pace and finished gamely to win the Dangers Hour last out at the Big A going a mile. Two back he checked in sixth beaten 3 1/2 lengths in the Muniz Memorial (G2) behind Bricks and Mortar, who returned to w the Old Forester Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs in his next outing. Three back the Shug trainee won the Tampa Bay (G3) at this distance. He should be able to work out a good tracking trip and has the recency edge over our second choice who is coming back off the bench.

    Catholic Boy faded to finish a well beaten 13th in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) last out in a disappointing effort. He ran twice on turf last year including winning the Belmont Derby (G1) last July. He has won four of his five trips on the lawn in his career. He is in good hands with the Thomas, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher and Christophe Clement. The trainer is 19% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He has solid looking works on the morning tab and looks ready to fire off the sidelines, but his price may end up lighter than his 3-1 morning line.

    Wagering
    WIN: #11 to win at 4-1 or better.
    EX: 11,12 / 2,3,11,12
    TRI: 11,12 / 2,3,11,12 / 2,3,10,11,12

    Live Longshots:
    These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

    Belmont Park
    R1: #2 Ok Honey 15-1
    R3: #9 I’llhandlealthecash 12-1
    R5: #8 Great Going 8-1
    R7: #6 Theaterintheround 12-1
    R8: #7 Playthatfunnymusic 10-1
    R9: #8 Game Break 8-1
    R10: #11 Archumybaby 8-1
    R12: 32 Sounds Good 8-1

    Good luck today!
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  5. #20
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    MY PREAKNESS PICKS:

    2. Bourbon War (12-1) Trainer: Mark Hennig, Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. TO WIN
    4. Improbable (5-2) Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Mike Smith TO WIN

    ****************************
    EXACTA

    1. War of Will (4-1) Trainer: Mark Casse, Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
    2. Bourbon War (12-1) Trainer: Mark Hennig, Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
    4. Improbable (5-2) Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Mike Smith
    12. Anothertwistafate (6-1) Trainer: Blaine Wright, Jockey: Jose Ortiz
    13. Win Win Win (15-1) Trainer: Michael Trombetta, Jockey: Julian Pimentel

    ******************************************
    TRIFECTA

    1. War of Will (4-1) Trainer: Mark Casse, Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
    2. Bourbon War (12-1) Trainer: Mark Hennig, Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
    4. Improbable (5-2) Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Mike Smith
    12. Anothertwistafate (6-1) Trainer: Blaine Wright, Jockey: Jose Ortiz
    13. Win Win Win (15-1) Trainer: Michael Trombetta, Jockey: Julian Pimentel

    GOOD LUCK !
    :toast:
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 05-18-2019 at 11:58 AM.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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