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Thread: Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/17

  1. #1
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    Default Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/17

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, April 17

    Good Luck on day # 107 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    — There have been 210 NHL playoff series where a team led 3 games to 0:

    — Team leading 3-0 was 128-82 in Game 4 (now 130-82).

    — Team leading 3-1 was 59-23 in Game 5

    — Team leading 3-2 was 14-9 in Game 6.

    — Team that led 3-0 was 5-7 in Game 7.

    — Columbus/Islanders were underdogs that led series 3-0 this week.


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) 4:50am late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, my phone starts beeping; figured some other terrible thing must’ve happened in the world, but instead they announced that Russell Wilson signed a 4-year, $140M extension with the Seahawks.

    At 4:50am, 1:50am in Seattle.

    I’m guessing they could’ve waited a couple of more hours to announce it, but no……

    12) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes was asked directly if he would have left for UCLA if the Bruins had covered his $8M buyout: “I think I would have been the coach at UCLA.”

    Why would he say that now, if he was happy in Knoxville? Once he turned down the UCLA job, why would he talk about it again?

    11) Baseball injuries:
    — Tampa Bay Rays’ ace Blake Snell (toe) goes on the IL- Apparently a granite pole fell on his foot in his bathroom at home. Seriously.
    — Brewers put P Freddy Peralta (shoulder) on the IL.

    10) When Golden State led the Clippers by 31 points Monday night, some courageous (or drunk) person in Las Vegas wagered $50 on the Clippers to win the game SU, at 100-1 odds. He/she collected $5,000 when the Clippers won, which buys a lot of alcohol.

    9) As of Tuesday at 2pm, there were 683 college basketball players in the transfer portal; with 353 D-I college basketball teams, that works out to 1.93 players per team, and it is a big part of what is hurting the quality of play in college basketball.

    There is so little continuity from year to year; look at Nevada, which just hired Steve Alford to replace Eric Musselman. Right now, Nevada has zero players who will be eligible to play when the season starts in November. Not one. None. Bupkis.

    8) In 2013, Aaron Rodgers signed a deal that pays him $23M a year, and ate up 17.9% of the Packers’ salary cap. In 2019, Seattle just signed Russell Wilson to a $35M a year contract that will eat up 18.7% of the Seahawks’ salary cap.

    7) Phillies 14, Mets 3— Phillies scored eight runs in this game before they made an out; Mets made four errors in first inning. This was only 2nd time ever the Mets allowed 10+ runs in the first inning, other time coming in July 1988.

    Steven Matz is first MLB pitcher since Paul Wilson in 2005 to allow eight runs without getting anyone out, although the shortstop did make two errors behind him.

    If you like to plan ahead, baseball’s 2026 All-Star Game will be held in Philadelphia, to help commemorate our country’s 250th birthday.

    6) New York 8, Boston 0— Chris Sale is now 0-4, 8.50 this season; Boston is paying him $15M this year, then $164M more from 2020-25.

    Red Sox found a scapegoat for their 6-11 start when they DFA’d catcher Blake Swihart Tuesday afternoon, and brought Sandy Leon back to the majors.

    5) Cardinals’ 1B Paul Goldschmidt hit his 7th home run Monday night; he hit 7th home run last year on May 30. St Louis has a very potent lineup.

    4) Columbus Blue Jackets have been in NHL for 19 years, had never won a playoff series, until they beat Tampa Bay 7-3 last night and swept the Lightning. Tampa Bay had 30 more points than the Blue Jackets this season, had the NHL’s best record.

    This is a big reason why the NHL playoffs are better than the NBA’s version; #8-seeds can and often do win playoff series. Hardly ever happens in the NBA.

    3) Temple/USC will start a home/home basketball series this fall, with the Owls visiting the Galen Center this year, with the Trojans coming to Philly in the fall of 2020.

    USC poached grad transfer Daniel Otumi away from the Akron Zips; Otumi averaged 14.2 ppg LY and shot 37% behind the arc.

    2) Most baseball strategy is fairly cut/dry, but one gray area that gets people’s blood boiling is when a game is tied going to bottom of 8th or 9th inning; does the visiting team use its closer with the game tied to keep the game alive, and then use a lesser pitcher to close the game if they get the lead later on, or do they hold the closer back for when they (hopefully) get the lead?

    It is an interesting question; pitchers are so pampered these days, managers more and more see the big picture instead of just today’s game.

    We’re a long way from 1980, when the A’s had three different starting pitchers throw 14-inning complete games, because the Oakland relievers back then weren’t very good.

    1) NFL Draft is a week from tomorrow; I’m tired of mock drafts, which are nothing but fake news that we learn nothing from. The draft is a fascinating process, but having media people guess multiple times at what is going to happen is simply a waste of time.

    NO ONE KNOWS what is going to happen; thats why it is so interesting.

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    Wednesday's Tip Sheet
    Kevin Rogers

    Game 2 – Pacers at Celtics – 7:05 PM EST – TNT
    Boston leads series, 1-0


    Indiana dropped three of four matchups with Boston this season, but looked to steal Game 1 of their first round series at TD Garden. The Pacers led the Celtics, 45-38 at halftime, but Indiana went ice-cold in the third quarter by getting outscored, 26-8, while converted only two field goals. Boston finished off Indiana, 84-74 to cash as 7 ½-point favorites and easily hit the UNDER on the total of 210 ½.

    The Celtics improved to 4-0 in the last four playoff series openers, led by Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris’ 20 points apiece. Irving shot 6-of-17 in his Boston postseason debut after missing last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals with a knee injury. Both the Celtics and Pacers were miserable from the floor (Indiana 33%, Boston 36%), but Nate McMillan’s squad misfired on 21-of-27 attempts from three-point range, while Cory Joseph led the way with 14 points.

    Boston ended a seven-game ATS slide at TD Garden, marking its first home cover since March 1 against Washington. The 74 points allowed by the Celtics marks the best defensive effort this season as Boston yielded 77 points to Chicago on December 8, while Brad Stevens’ team gave up 83 points twice to Cleveland in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.

    VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his take on this matchup, “It’s easy to go into Game 2 and ride the UNDER eyes-closed given the series-opening result, but keep in mind that the Pacers were only held under 90 points three times this season and bounced back to top the century mark each time they took the floor next. Since the Celtics have only had two instances where they held opponents under 100 points in consecutive games in 2019, trends favor Indiana bouncing back, but it is going to need a better game plan than it came out with to open the second half after leading at the break.”

    From the Pacers’ perspective, Mejia breaks down what they need to do in order to bounce back, “Tyreke Evans will have to be more aggressive and Indiana will need Bojan Bogdanovic and Doug McDermott to shoot far better than they managed in shooting a combined 0-for-7 from 3-point range.”

    Boston has won and covered in all four Game 2’s under Stevens after coming up victorious in Game 1, as all four wins came by double-digits. Indiana suffered only second ATS loss in the last 11 road playoff games dating back to 2016, while the Pacers were dealt their first postseason defeat by at least 10 points since Game 3 of the 2016 first round against the Raptors.

    Game 2 – Pistons at Bucks – 8:05 PM EST – NBA TV
    Milwaukee leads series, 1-0


    It feels like this series was over even before it began when news broke that Pistons’ All-Star Blake Griffin was sidelined due to a lingering knee injury. Detroit didn’t have much of a chance even with Griffin available as the Pistons lost all four regular season meetings with the top-seeded Bucks, but Sunday’s Game 1 at Fiserv Forum was enough proof this series will be done quickly.

    Milwaukee jumped out to a 38-18 advantage after one quarter and cruised to a 121-86 blowout over Detroit to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the last five matchups. All five Bucks’ starters finished in double-figures, led by MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 24-point, 17-rebound performance. The Bucks shot 49% from the floor and knocked down 15 three-pointers, while limiting Detroit to 38% shooting as reserve Luke Kennard led the Pistons with 21 points.

    In the three losses at Fiserv Forum this season, the Bucks have outscored the Pistons by 23, 23, and 35, which doesn’t give Detroit backers a lot of faith even as hefty 15-point underdogs in Game 2. The last double-digit ‘dog that lost a first round series opener by more than 30 points and covered in Game 2 was the Mavericks in 2016, who tripped up the Thunder as 14-point underdogs, 85-84.

    Game 2 – Jazz at Rockets – 9:35 PM EST – TNT

    Houston leads series, 1-0


    Last season, Houston needed five games to eliminate Utah in the second round of the playoffs. The Rockets continued their postseason domination of the Jazz in Sunday’s 122-90 rout to easily cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Seven Rockets posted double-figures, paced by James Harden’s 29 points, while Houston knocked down 15-of-41 three-pointers for its third consecutive victory over Utah since losing the first two meetings with the Jazz this season.

    Utah was limited to 39% shooting from the floor, while getting outscored, 39-19 in the fourth quarter. Rudy Gobert led the Jazz with 22 points and 12 rebounds, but the Jazz misfired on 20 three-point attempts. Quin Snyder’s team lost each of their series openers last season, as they managed to grab Game 2 victories as underdogs against Oklahoma City in the first round and Houston in the second round.

    Mejia is back with his thoughts for Game 2 at the Toyota Center, “This is definitely one of those matchups where the old cliché about the series not starting until the home team loses a game applies, but the Jazz need to at least save a little face before heading back to Salt Lake City. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles shot a combined 8-for-22 while the bench finished an incredible 4-for-26, which included a pair of missed Grayson Allen layups that helped the Game 1 total remain just UNDER the closing number of 212.5. Jae Crowder and Royce O’Neale have been reliable all season and must be better. Considering the likelihood that they bounce back, the OVER may be the way to go in this one.”

    All three matchups in Houston have finished UNDER the total, as the oddsmakers did not move off the 212 ½ number from Game 1. The Rockets moved to 7-1-1 to the UNDER in the past nine games at the Toyota Center, while improving to 6-0-1 ATS the last seven home contests. The Jazz were riding a five-game ATS hot streak as a road underdog prior to Sunday’s blowout loss, as Utah owns a 9-4 ATS mark under Snyder in the playoffs when receiving points away from Salt Lake City.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-17-2019 at 12:02 PM.

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    537Indiana -538 Boston
    BOSTON is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in home games in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.

    539Detroit -540 Milwaukee
    MILWAUKEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

    541Utah -542 Houston
    UTAH is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 2 seasons.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, April 17



    Indiana @ Boston

    Game 537-538
    April 17, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indiana
    116.191
    Boston
    121.586
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 5 1/2
    199
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 7 1/2
    203
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indiana
    (+7 1/2); Under

    Detroit @ Milwaukee


    Game 539-540
    April 17, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    113.588
    Milwaukee
    124.780
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 11
    216
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 15
    212
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (+15); Over

    Utah @ Houston


    Game 541-542
    April 17, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Utah
    121.589
    Houston
    133.113
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 11 1/2
    204
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 6 1/2
    212 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-6 1/2); Under





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, April 17


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    INDIANA (48 - 35) at BOSTON (50 - 33) - 4/17/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOSTON is 99-79 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 69-54 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 92-78 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 7-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 9-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DETROIT (41 - 42) at MILWAUKEE (61 - 22) - 4/17/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 41-29 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 38-27 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 427-494 ATS (-116.4 Units) in home games since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 398-473 ATS (-122.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 73-103 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 92-125 ATS (-45.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    MILWAUKEE is 10-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UTAH (50 - 33) at HOUSTON (54 - 29) - 4/17/2019, 9:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HOUSTON is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    UTAH is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    UTAH is 40-28 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    UTAH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    UTAH is 65-51 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    UTAH is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 10-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 12-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, April 17


    Indiana was up 7 at half Sunday, then got outscored 46-29 in 2nd half, scoring 8 points in third quarter of brickfest where both teams shot under 37%. Pacers are 4-10 in its last 14 games overall; they covered three of last four road games. Celtics won seven of their last nine games; they’re 1-8 vs spread in their last nine home games. Over is 11-6 in in their last 17 games. Pacers lost their last four games with Boston; they’re 3-3 vs spread in its last six visits to Beantown. Seven of last 11 series games went over. Pacers are in playoffs for 8th time in nine years; they lost their first round series the last three years.

    Milwaukee crushed Detroit by 35 in Game 1; game was 70-43 at the half. No one on the Bucks played more than 25:00. Unless Blake Griffin can play, Pistons are lost cause here. Bucks won nine of last 11 games with Detroit; under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Pistons are 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven visits to Milwaukee. Detroit is 4-5 in its last nine games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Bucks won eight of last 11 games; six of their last eight games went over. Milwaukee is in playoffs for 3rd year in row; they lost last eight first round series- their last series win was in ’01.

    Houston made 15-41 on arc in easy 122-90 Game 1 win over Utah; Jazz shot only 39%. Utah won eight of last 11 games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games. Three of last three Jazz games went over the total. Rockets won/covered seven of its last eight games; they’re 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven home games. Over is 3-2-1 in their last six games. Houston won eight of its last 11 games with the Jazz; six of last eight series games stayed under. Jazz is 3-2-1 vs spread in its last six visits to Houston. All five Rocket starters scored in double figures in Game 1; Harden had “only” 29, a good sign for Houston.




    NBA

    Wednesday, April 17


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Indiana Pacers
    Indiana is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
    Indiana is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
    Indiana is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 12 games on the road
    Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
    Indiana is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Celtics
    Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 17 games
    Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Boston is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
    Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
    Boston is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games when playing at home against Indiana

    Detroit Pistons
    Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
    Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    Detroit is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
    Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Milwaukee Bucks
    Milwaukee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
    Milwaukee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Milwaukee is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home
    Milwaukee is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Detroit
    Milwaukee is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Detroit
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Utah is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
    Utah is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
    Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Utah is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Houston
    Utah is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Houston
    Utah is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Utah is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston Rockets
    Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Houston's last 21 games
    Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games at home
    Houston is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
    Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Utah


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-17-2019 at 12:03 PM.

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