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Thread: Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/17

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    Default Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/17

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, April 17

    Good Luck on day # 107 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    — There have been 210 NHL playoff series where a team led 3 games to 0:

    — Team leading 3-0 was 128-82 in Game 4 (now 130-82).

    — Team leading 3-1 was 59-23 in Game 5

    — Team leading 3-2 was 14-9 in Game 6.

    — Team that led 3-0 was 5-7 in Game 7.

    — Columbus/Islanders were underdogs that led series 3-0 this week.


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) 4:50am late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, my phone starts beeping; figured some other terrible thing must’ve happened in the world, but instead they announced that Russell Wilson signed a 4-year, $140M extension with the Seahawks.

    At 4:50am, 1:50am in Seattle.

    I’m guessing they could’ve waited a couple of more hours to announce it, but no……

    12) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes was asked directly if he would have left for UCLA if the Bruins had covered his $8M buyout: “I think I would have been the coach at UCLA.”

    Why would he say that now, if he was happy in Knoxville? Once he turned down the UCLA job, why would he talk about it again?

    11) Baseball injuries:
    — Tampa Bay Rays’ ace Blake Snell (toe) goes on the IL- Apparently a granite pole fell on his foot in his bathroom at home. Seriously.
    — Brewers put P Freddy Peralta (shoulder) on the IL.

    10) When Golden State led the Clippers by 31 points Monday night, some courageous (or drunk) person in Las Vegas wagered $50 on the Clippers to win the game SU, at 100-1 odds. He/she collected $5,000 when the Clippers won, which buys a lot of alcohol.

    9) As of Tuesday at 2pm, there were 683 college basketball players in the transfer portal; with 353 D-I college basketball teams, that works out to 1.93 players per team, and it is a big part of what is hurting the quality of play in college basketball.

    There is so little continuity from year to year; look at Nevada, which just hired Steve Alford to replace Eric Musselman. Right now, Nevada has zero players who will be eligible to play when the season starts in November. Not one. None. Bupkis.

    8) In 2013, Aaron Rodgers signed a deal that pays him $23M a year, and ate up 17.9% of the Packers’ salary cap. In 2019, Seattle just signed Russell Wilson to a $35M a year contract that will eat up 18.7% of the Seahawks’ salary cap.

    7) Phillies 14, Mets 3— Phillies scored eight runs in this game before they made an out; Mets made four errors in first inning. This was only 2nd time ever the Mets allowed 10+ runs in the first inning, other time coming in July 1988.

    Steven Matz is first MLB pitcher since Paul Wilson in 2005 to allow eight runs without getting anyone out, although the shortstop did make two errors behind him.

    If you like to plan ahead, baseball’s 2026 All-Star Game will be held in Philadelphia, to help commemorate our country’s 250th birthday.

    6) New York 8, Boston 0— Chris Sale is now 0-4, 8.50 this season; Boston is paying him $15M this year, then $164M more from 2020-25.

    Red Sox found a scapegoat for their 6-11 start when they DFA’d catcher Blake Swihart Tuesday afternoon, and brought Sandy Leon back to the majors.

    5) Cardinals’ 1B Paul Goldschmidt hit his 7th home run Monday night; he hit 7th home run last year on May 30. St Louis has a very potent lineup.

    4) Columbus Blue Jackets have been in NHL for 19 years, had never won a playoff series, until they beat Tampa Bay 7-3 last night and swept the Lightning. Tampa Bay had 30 more points than the Blue Jackets this season, had the NHL’s best record.

    This is a big reason why the NHL playoffs are better than the NBA’s version; #8-seeds can and often do win playoff series. Hardly ever happens in the NBA.

    3) Temple/USC will start a home/home basketball series this fall, with the Owls visiting the Galen Center this year, with the Trojans coming to Philly in the fall of 2020.

    USC poached grad transfer Daniel Otumi away from the Akron Zips; Otumi averaged 14.2 ppg LY and shot 37% behind the arc.

    2) Most baseball strategy is fairly cut/dry, but one gray area that gets people’s blood boiling is when a game is tied going to bottom of 8th or 9th inning; does the visiting team use its closer with the game tied to keep the game alive, and then use a lesser pitcher to close the game if they get the lead later on, or do they hold the closer back for when they (hopefully) get the lead?

    It is an interesting question; pitchers are so pampered these days, managers more and more see the big picture instead of just today’s game.

    We’re a long way from 1980, when the A’s had three different starting pitchers throw 14-inning complete games, because the Oakland relievers back then weren’t very good.

    1) NFL Draft is a week from tomorrow; I’m tired of mock drafts, which are nothing but fake news that we learn nothing from. The draft is a fascinating process, but having media people guess multiple times at what is going to happen is simply a waste of time.

    NO ONE KNOWS what is going to happen; thats why it is so interesting.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-17-2019 at 12:11 PM.

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    45Boston -46 Toronto
    TORONTO is 19-20 ATS (-16.2 Units) against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the 2nd half of the year in the current season.

    47Nashville -48 Dallas
    NASHVILLE is 16-7 ATS (8.6 Units) in road games against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances in the current season.

    49Calgary -50 Colorado
    CALGARY is 23-34 ATS (-19.6 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the 2nd half of the year over the last 2 seasons.




    NHL
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, April 17



    Boston @ Toronto

    Game 45-46
    April 17, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Boston
    10.590
    Toronto
    11.707
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 1
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toronto
    -125
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (-125); Over

    Nashville @ Dallas


    Game 47-48
    April 17, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Nashville
    11.245
    Dallas
    12.866
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 1 1/2
    3
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    -115
    5
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (-115); Under

    Calgary @ Colorado


    Game 49-50
    April 17, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    9.412
    Colorado
    10.878
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Colorado
    by 1 1/2
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    -115
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Colorado
    (-105); Under





    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, April 17


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    BOSTON (50-26-0-9, 109 pts.) at TORONTO (48-29-0-8, 104 pts.) - 4/17/2019, 7:08 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOSTON is 5-11 ATS (-8.2 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
    TORONTO is 21-8 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
    TORONTO is 22-18 ATS (-7.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.
    TORONTO is 22-24 ATS (+46.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
    TORONTO is 8-13 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 13-9 (+5.5 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 13-9-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
    11 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.6 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NASHVILLE (49-30-0-6, 104 pts.) at DALLAS (44-33-0-8, 96 pts.) - 4/17/2019, 8:08 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NASHVILLE is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    NASHVILLE is 13-7 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NASHVILLE is 11-6 (+2.7 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    NASHVILLE is 11-6-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CALGARY (51-26-0-8, 110 pts.) at COLORADO (40-31-0-14, 94 pts.) - 4/17/2019, 10:08 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 4-13 ATS (-10.9 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.
    CALGARY is 21-13 ATS (+6.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
    CALGARY is 18-11 ATS (+30.9 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
    CALGARY is 122-121 ATS (+273.6 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
    COLORADO is 40-45 ATS (-59.4 Units) in all games this season.
    COLORADO is 11-20 ATS (-10.8 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 9-3 (+4.9 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 9-3-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NHL

    Wednesday, April 17


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Boston Bruins
    Boston is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
    Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games on the road
    Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Boston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Maple Leafs
    Toronto is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games
    Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games
    Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 12 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
    Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Boston
    Toronto is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

    Nashville Predators
    Nashville is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games
    Nashville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Nashville's last 15 games
    Nashville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Nashville's last 9 games on the road
    Nashville is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
    Nashville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
    Nashville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Nashville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nashville's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Dallas Stars
    Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Dallas's last 21 games
    Dallas is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games at home
    Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 12 games at home
    Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Nashville
    Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Nashville
    Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Nashville
    Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Nashville
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against Nashville

    Calgary Flames
    Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Calgary is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
    Calgary is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 11 games on the road
    Calgary is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Colorado
    Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
    Colorado Avalanche
    Colorado is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
    Colorado is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Colorado's last 18 games
    Colorado is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Colorado is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Calgary
    Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-17-2019 at 12:11 PM.

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    NHL Stanley Cup playoffs best bets and prop predictions: Leafs and Bruins struggling to score
    Monty Andrews

    The NHL betting upsets can continue Wednesday night. Two lower-seeded teams can take 3-1 leads in their respective best-of-seven Stanley Cup playoff series, as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche look to put the Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames on the brink of elimination. The Nashville Predators are also positioned to take a 3-1 stranglehold on their first-round series with the host Dallas Stars.

    Here's the top trends to monitor and best bets for Wednesday's NHL Stanley Cup playoffs odds:

    BOSTON BRUINS AT TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

    Moneyline Odds: Boston +105/Toronto -125
    Over/Under: 6 goals
    Start Time: 7 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
    Series: Toronto leads 2-1

    Discipline has been the theme of this series – Nazem Kadri aside – as both teams come into Game 4 having incurred a playoff-low eight minor penalties apiece. And that's significant given the proficiency of the power plays. Five of the 15 total goals scored in the series have come with the man advantage. With both sides on their best behavior while also struggling to do much of anything 5-on-5, look for this trend to continue. We recommend going with the Under 6 goal option.

    It's worth noting, that Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy threatened to break up his top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak following Monday's 3-2 loss to Toronto in Game 3. All three averaged in excess of 1.2 points per game during the regular season, and will almost certainly come out firing Wednesday. Look to Boston as a good bet to open the scoring in Game 4 (-115). We like the added urgency factor here, combined with positive regression on the Bruins' 6.1-percent shooting rate.


    NASHVILLE PREDATORS AT DALLAS STARS

    Moneyline Odds: Nashville -105/Dallas -115
    Over/Under: 5 goals
    Start Time: 8 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
    Series: Nashville leads 2-1

    Hey, what a surprise! The Predators and Stars aren't scoring any first-period goals. OK, so they do have one between them through the first three games of the series, but that won't come as a shock to those of you who frequent this space. These teams are two of the most defensively-stout units in the NHL over the opening 20 minutes, and considering the first-period Under 0.5 is paying out at an astronomical +260, it's absolutely worth banking on yet another barren opening stanza.


    CALGARY FLAMES AT COLORADO AVALANCHE

    Moneyline Odds: Calgary -115/Colorado -105
    Over/Under: 6 goals
    Start Time: 10 p.m. ET, Pepsi Center, Denver
    Series: Colorado leads 2-1

    Things are suddenly not looking so good for the Flames, who came in as the top seed in the Western Conference but were trounced 6-2 in Denver on Monday night. And there are two trends working squarely against them: Colorado has reeled off seven consecutive home victories (outscoring the opposition by a 29-13 margin over that span) while the Flames are 3-13 SU in their last 16 following a loss of three or more goals, including a 1-5 mark in 2018-19. We favor the Avs to stay hot at home as short home dogs.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-17-2019 at 12:12 PM.

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