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Thread: Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/8

  1. #1
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    Nov 2004

    Default Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/8

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, April 8

    Good Luck on day # 98 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    Nov 2004


    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    More very early over/under NFL win totals:

    — Dolphins 5, under -$120

    — Vikings 9

    — Patriots 11, under -$115

    — Saints 10.5, over -$120

    — Giants 6

    — Jets 7, over -$115


    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend……

    13) A gambler at the MGM in Las Vegas had $96,000 on the money line with Virginia Saturday night; hope the guy went to church to give thanks Sunday. His $96K ticket at -$250 paid him a handsome $38,400 for two hours of stress.

    12) How is it possible that ESPN’s Sunday Night baseball hadn’t been in Denver since 2001? Maybe they should move games around more; Colorado games are fun to watch.

    11) Coaching carousel:
    — Arkansas hires Nevada coach Eric Musselman- when a team starts five seniors, its a good time for the coach to re-locate.
    — Virginia Tech hired Wofford coach Mike Young.

    10) UCLA fired basketball coach Steve Alford on New Year’s Eve; you’d think they’d have hired a replacement by now, seeing how it is April 8th. They’ve butchered this coaching hire in epic fashion; would be they go for an alum like Earl Watson?

    9) Texas Tech fired its football coach after last season; the guy winds up getting hired as head coach by the Arizona Cardinals. Four months later, Tech makes the Final Four for the first time; with big $$$ johs like UCLA/LSU open or likely to be open, will Tech be able to keep Chris Beard?

    8) Pirates 7, Reds 5— Derek Dietrich homered his first time up for the Reds in this game, lingering at the plate a little to admire it. His second time up? Chris Archer throws the first pitch behind him, clearing both benches in an exchange that was a little more volatile than usual baseball dust-ups.

    Five players get thrown out, but not Archer, the guy who started everything by throwing behind the batter. As my high school chemistry teacher often said, that was nonsensical.

    Dietrich hit a second homer later in the game.

    7) Baseball injuries:
    — Braves put C Brian McCann (hamstring) on the IL.
    — Rangers put 1B Ronald Guzman (hamstring) on the IL.

    6) Purdue G Carsen Edwards is entering the NBA Draft, after scoring 34.8 ppg in four NCAA tournament games. Will be curious to see how his game translates to the NBA.

    5) Pretty big week for Jim Nantz; he does the national title game in Minneapolis tonight, then its off to Augusta for The Masters on Thursday.

    4) Golf is hard; Jordan Spieth shot a 42 on the front nine in San Antonio Saturday, then he played the back nine in 31. Neither one of those happens much.

    3) Minnesota Vikings signed QB Sean Mannion to back up Kirk Cousins; Mannion had been with the Rams the last couple years, but LA signed Blake Bortles as a backup this winter.

    2) Rockets 149, Suns 113— Houston was 27-57 behind the arc in this game, setting the all-time record for 3-pointers in an NBA game.

    1) Today would’ve been Jim (Catfish) Hunter’s 73rd birthday; he was my boyhood idol, a great pitcher who helped the A’s win three World Series. Threw a perfect game, won 224 games, was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1987. He even knocked in three of the four runs Oakland scored the night he threw his perfect game. Hell of a big game pitcher.

  3. #3
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    Nov 2004


    Texas Tech vs. Virginia
    Kevin Rogers

    Monday night’s National Championship game is very intriguing on many levels. We’re not seeing the likes of Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Villanova, or Michigan State. Instead, it’s two schools that have never raised the championship plaque as Virginia and Texas Tech play for the 2019 title at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

    The Cavaliers (34-3 SU, 25-12 ATS) are a top-seed for the second straight Big Dance, but suffered a mortifying defeat to 16th-seed UMBC last March by 20 points. Virginia avoided a second consecutive massive upset in the first round by erasing a six-point deficit to upstart Gardner-Webb in a 71-56 victory, although the Cavaliers failed to cash as hefty 22 ½-point favorites.

    Tony Bennett’s squad cruised past Oklahoma in the second round, 63-51 to barely cover as 10 ½-point favorites, in spite of Kyle Guy’s 0-for-10 performance from three-point range. The Cavaliers squeezed out a 53-49 victory over Oregon as 8 ½-point favorites in the Sweet 16 in an ugly offensive performance by both clubs, as UVA shot 35% from the floor.

    Virginia outlasted Purdue in the Elite Eight, 80-75 in overtime, while picking up a miracle cover as 4 ½-point favorites. The Cavaliers trailed by three points late after Ty Jerome was fouled with five seconds remaining. Jerome nailed the first free throw and missed the second one, but UVA tracked down the rebound and Mamadi Diakite’s short jumper beat the buzzer and forced overtime. Virginia led by three with five seconds left in overtime, but Purdue turned the ball over and the Cavs hit two free throws to grab the cover.

    Now to the foul heard ‘round the world.

    In Saturday’s Final Four matchup with an Auburn squad who eliminated Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky in three straight round, the Cavaliers trailed, 31-28 at halftime. Virginia rallied back to take a 57-47 advantage with 5:24 left to get in front of the -6 closing number. However, Auburn ran off 14 straight points to pull in front, 61-57 with 17 seconds remaining and creep closer towards its first ever National Championship appearance.

    Guy knocked down a three-pointer to cut the deficit to one, while Auburn split a pair of free throws to take a 62-60 lead. The fun began in the final five seconds as the referees missed a double-dribble committed by Virginia, then Guy was fouled on a three-pointer in the left corner with five-tenths of a second remaining. Guy sank all three free throws to give Virginia the 63-62 victory, but Auburn backers had the last laugh as the Tigers cashed in the underdog role.

    Texas Tech (31-6 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) was shocked by West Virginia in the Big 12 quarterfinals as 13-point favorites, but the Red Raiders have bounced back nicely with five straight wins in the NCAA tournament. It all started with a 72-57 triumph in the opening round over Northern Kentucky, followed by a 78-58 rout of a solid Buffalo team as 3 ½-point favorites in the second round.

    The Red Raiders handled last year’s runner-up Michigan in the Sweet 16 with a 63-44 blowout as 1 ½-point underdogs. Jarrett Culver led Texas Tech with 22 points, as the Red Raiders held the Wolverines to 1-of-19 shooting from three-point range. Texas Tech knocked out top-seed Gonzaga in the Elite Eight one season after getting bounced in the same round by eventual national champion Villanova. The Red Raiders held off the Bulldogs, 75-69 as five-point underdogs to improve to 12-2 ATS the last 14 games.

    After Michigan State escaped past Duke in the Elite Eight, it seemed like the Spartans were the team to beat in Minneapolis. However, Texas Tech completed its sweep of the Michigan powers in the tournament by bouncing the Spartans, 61-51 as two-point underdogs on Saturday. The Red Raiders limited MSU to 32% shooting from the floor, while senior Matt Mooney led Texas Tech with 22 points to help a Big 12 school advance to its first title game since Kansas lost to Kentucky in the 2012 championship.

    Texas Tech began the season with a 2-3 ATS mark in the role of an underdog, which included losses to Duke in New York City and blowout defeats at Kansas State and Kansas. However, Chris Beard’s club owns a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record in the last three opportunities in the ‘dog role, all over the last 10 days with the three victories over Michigan, Gonzaga, and Michigan State.

    The miniscule total of 118 on Monday night tells us a lot about a potential grind-it-out affair with these two defensive-minded teams. The UNDER has cashed in seven of the last nine championships dating back to 2010, including in each of the last two years with Villanova blowing out Michigan, 79-62 on a 144 ½ total last season and North Carolina edging Gonzaga in 2017 on a 154 ½ total, 71-65.

    If you believe in wacky trends, in the last two seasons ending in odd numbers, the ACC has captured the championship. In 2017, UNC took home the title and in 2015, Duke won the championship, and in both cases, those powers were number one seeds like Virginia. Meanwhile, besides Kansas winning three championships in its storied history, the only other current Big 12 school owning titles in college hoops is Oklahoma State, who won back-to-back in 1945 and 1946 when the Cowboys went by Oklahoma A&M.

    Title Game History

    -- The opening total of 119 is the lowest in National Championship Game history. This number shatters the previous record of 128.

    -- Favorites are 24-10 straight up and 15-19 against the spread in National Championship game history

    - The 'under' has gone 19-14 since 1985 and the low side is on a 7-2 run the past nine years.

    -- Totals that closed at 135 or lower and their results

    128 (Florida vs. UCLA in 2006) - Over
    128 (Duke vs. Butler in 2010) - Under
    131.5 (Connecticut vs. Butler in 2011) - Under
    135 (Connecticut vs. Kentucky in 2014) - Under

    -- Virginia (-1.5) is one of the shortest spreads in NCAA Tournament Championship History

    -- Listed below are the four smallest spreads in the title game

    2017: North Carolina (-1.5) vs. Gonzaga - Favorite
    2006: Florida (-1) vs. UCLA - Favorite
    1986: Duke (-1) vs. Louisville - Underdog
    2015: Wisconsin (-1) vs. Duke - Underdog

    Conference Trends in the NCAA Tournament Championship Game

    -- ACC is 10-6 straight up and 10-6 against the spread, 4-10 over/under

    -- Big 12/Big 8 is 2-4 straight up and 2-4 against the spread, 1-3 over/under

    Seeds Trends in the NCAA Tournament Championship Game

    -- #1 Seeds are 21-12 straight up and 17-16 against the spread, 10-18 Over/Under

    -- #3 Seeds are 4-6 straight up and 4-6 against the spread, 4-3 Over/Under

    -- #1 vs. #3 is 2-0 straight up and 1-0 against the spread, 1-0 Over/Under

    2018 - Villanova 79 Michigan 62 (Favorite-Under)
    1990 - UNLV 103 Duke 73 (No Line Posted due to Nevada Gaming)
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-08-2019 at 12:14 PM.

  4. #4
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    Nov 2004


    Early bettors hammer Under odds for Texas Tech-Virginia title clash
    Patrick Everson

    A week into April, March Madness heads toward its conclusion with Monday night’s championship game. We check in on the opening odds and early action for the NCAA Tournament final, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas, and Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.

    No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers – Open: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -1

    Virginia was the lone No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four and stayed on its feet for one last dance at the Big Dance – barely. The Cavaliers (34-3 SU, 25-12 ATS) had a 10-point lead with five minutes left against No. 5 seed Auburn, blew all that and more, but got a fortuitous noncall of a double dribble, followed by a final-second foul call on a missed 3-pointer.

    Kyle Guy then made all three free throws, giving the Cavs a 63-62 victory as 6-point favorites Saturday.

    Texas Tech has been the best bet of the NCAA Tourney, going 5-0 SU and ATS heading into Monday’s 9:20 p.m. ET championship clash. The Red Raiders (31-6 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) also let a double-digit advantage slip away in the semifinals, turning a 48-35 lead with 9:23 remaining into just a 52-51 edge with 2:35 left against No. 2 seed Michigan State.

    However, Texas Tech closed with a 9-0 run to claim a 61-51 victory as a 1.5-point underdog Saturday, moving to 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games.

    While there was a little jockeying with the opening pointspread, what proved more intriguing was the total. The SuperBook opened at 120, quickly went to 119.5 and ultimately dipped to 118.5 before bettors slowed down their fire. Still, The SuperBook made two trips to 118 before going back to 118.5 late Saturday night.

    “It was a situation where we posted it before anyone else,” Osterman said. “The third bet we took was on the Under, and then a couple more decent-sized bets came in on the Under. And then more places started posting lower totals, so we had to go down too. It was a combination of money and the market. It looks like it’s calmed down a little bit since we went to 118.5.”

    As for the spread, Cavaliers backers definitely liked the opener of -1.

    “The first bet we took was a $5,000 limit bet on Virginia -1,” Osterman said. “We didn’t move off that, but then we went to -1.5 because it looked like the market was gonna stay there. Then the market came back down, and we took a Texas Tech moneyline bet from one of our house players. So we decided to go back to 1.”

    PointsBet opened the total at 118.5 and also drew some early Under cash, dropping to 117.5 by late Saturday night.

    “The first bets were all on the under,” Chaprales said.

    On the spread, Virginia spent the late night bouncing between the opener of -1.5 and -1 at PointsBet.

    “We’re anticipating another rock fight,” Chaprales said before describing out-of-the-gate pointspread action. “The line actually moved to 1 for about 90 seconds. Some immediate Virginia resistance at -1 pushed it back to -1.5. Then more Tech money, back to 1. These numbers are so tight, I could see a ping-pong scenario.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-08-2019 at 12:14 PM.

  5. #5
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    Nov 2004



    NO. 1 DEFENSE!

    Well, obviously, as Texas Tech and Virginia boast two of the best defenses in the country but there are a couple of things that the Red Raiders do particularily well that will frustrate the Cavaliers.

    The first is 3-point defense. The Red Raiders rank 11th in the nation in allowing opponents to shoot just 29.3 percent from behind the arc on the season and have allowed opponents to hit on just 31-of-117 attempts (26.5 percent) so far in the tournament. Virginia relies on the 3-ball for 35.4 percent of its total offense and that’s going to dry up on Monday night.

    The second is that the Red Raiders just don’t allow teams to move the ball around. Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the nation at limiting team assists, allowing just 9.6 per game, the fourth-fewest in the nation. Heading into the Final Four, Michigan State was third in the nation with 18.7 assists per game and then managed just six against the Red Raiders. Virginia has been scoring in the tournament with solid ball movement and is averaging 14.3 assists per game in its last three.

    This is going to be a defensive slugfest with a total that has already ticked down to 118 but the Red Raiders have the defensive edge in a couple of key categories which should help them to their first national title in school history.


    Texas Tech needs a better overall performance from Jarrett Culver on Monday. The future NBA lottery prospect was clutch late in the game on Saturday, hitting a key 3-pointer 58 seconds remaining, but he finished the game with just 10 points on 3-of-12 shooting while also adding five boards and five assists. The Big 12 Player of the Year came into the tournament hot, however, averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in four NCAA Tournament games prior to Minneapolis.

    Virginia only lost three times all season and in two of those, it was because Zion Williamson dominated from inside the arc, hitting on 15-of-22 two-point attempts. Culver is not Williamson but he is at his best when he’s driving to the basket and not settling for outside shots. His ability to get to the rim should be a key factor that Texas Tech will look to exploit against the Cavaliers. Culver is by far the Red Raiders’ best player and expect him to bounce back with a big performance on Monday night.


    Alright, someone has to say it: Virginia is downright lucky to be playing for the national championship on Monday night. That last sequence on Saturday was just silly, first with Ty Jerome getting away with a double-dribble before getting fouled and then the Cavaliers getting bailed out by Auburn’s Samir Doughty as he fouled Kyle Guy on his 3-point attempt with less than a second remaining (and yes, it was a foul). And don’t forget about how Virginia got to Minneapolis, needing a miraculous buzzer-beater from Mamadi Diakite to force overtime against Purdue in the Elite Eight.

    Virginia’s luck runs out on Monday. Texas Tech is a runaway train at the moment that is destroying anything and everything in its path. The Red Raiders are 5-0 against the spread so far in the tournament and will get to 6-0 when they cover — and likely win outright — in the National Championship game on Monday night.



    You have to be good to be lucky, as any sports bettor knows. A cynic might look at Virginia's last couple of results and see luck, but it takes more more than luck to win close games against quality teams like Purdue and Aubun.

    Virginia has proved that when the chips are down they can win close battles. They have the tenacity to fight back from behind as they did against Purdue after trailing 25-16, and they had the mettle to close out a tight finish against an Auburn team that was out for blood in the final five minutes.

    Most people think this championship game is going to be close and if it is, Virginia has the resiliency to win. With a spread this small, I'm more than comfortable taking them to cover as well.


    Texas Tech aren't turnover machines by any stretch of the imagination, but they can't compare to the discipline of Virginia on either side of the ball. Virginia simply refuses to beat itself.

    The Cavaliers commit just 14.3 fouls per game, the sixth fewest in the country, while Texas Tech sits near the middle of the pack with 17.3 which ranks 142nd.

    UVA also rarely turns the ball over, ranking 11th in the nation in turnovers per possession, while TTU ranks 138nd. In a game that should be very close, a foul here and a turnover there will make all the difference.


    During the tournament Texas Tech has played exceptionally well in almost every aspect of the game, except on the boards. The Raiders' rebounding rate of 50.9 percent ranks a modest 125th in the country and over their last three games that number has plummeted to 45.5 percent. Tech's second-leading rebounder Tariq Owens had what looked to be a nasty ankle injury against Michigan State but returned to the floor. It looks like nothing is going to keep Owens out of the lineup in the championship game, but ankle injuries are difficult to play on and could affect his rebounding ability.

    Virginia ranks 18th in the country in rebounding rate at 53.9 percent, and should be able to limit TTU's chances on the offensive end.

    Rebounding, turnovers, and clutch play, these are the things that win championships and Virginia's got the edge which should help them win and cover in Minneapolis.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-08-2019 at 12:15 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004



    Monday, April 8

    Texas Tech @ Virginia

    Game 811-812
    April 8, 2019 @ 9:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas Tech
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Texas Tech
    by 2
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    by 1 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Texas Tech
    (+1 1/2); Under

    Long Sheet

    Monday, April 8


    TEXAS TECH (31 - 6) vs. VIRGINIA (34 - 3) - 4/8/2019, 9:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TEXAS TECH is 141-185 ATS (-62.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
    VIRGINIA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VIRGINIA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    VIRGINIA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with one or less days rest this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, April 8

    Virginia won its last three games by total of 10 points, using near-miraculous finishes to win last two games. Cavaliers played two subs a total of 19:00 Saturday; Auburn shot 50% inside arc, but only 9-31 on arc against them. Only Cavalier senior who plays is their 7th man. Virginia is 17-0 outside ACC this year. Texas Tech is 16-1 outside the Big X, with only loss by 11 to Duke on neutral floor. Four of Red Raiders’ five NCAA tourney wins were by 10+ points. Tech starts three seniors; they held Michigan State to 31.9% from floor Saturday.

    — Favorites won/covered five of last eight national title games.
    — Since 2000, #1-seeds are 8-1 in final vs non-#1-seeds (7-2 vs spread).
    — #1-seed won last four national titles; since 1990, #3-seeds are 3-5 in title games, 0-2 vs #1-seeds.
    — Last time a Big X school won national title was Kansas in 2008.

    811Texas Tech -812 Virginia
    VIRGINIA is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.


    Monday, April 8

    Trend Report

    Texas Tech Red Raiders
    Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games
    Virginia Cavaliers
    Virginia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 5 games

    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-08-2019 at 12:16 PM.

  7. #7
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    Nov 2004




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