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Thread: Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/7

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    Default Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/7

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, April 7

    Good Luck on day # 97 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Next six Final Four sites:

    2020: Atlanta

    2021: Indianapolis

    2022: New Orleans

    2023: Houston

    2024: Phoenix

    2025: San Antonio


    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

    13) Virginia 63, Auburn 62— Wow. Virginia led 57-47 with 5:03 left, then went in the ashcan, not scoring again until they hit a 3-ball with 0:07.4 left, after Auburn had scored 14 consecutive points. Auburn fouled a 3-point shooter with 0:00.6 left; the kid makes all three foul shots and the Cavaliers are playing for the national title.

    12) Texas Tech 61, Michigan State 51— Defense ruled in Minneapolis Saturday; Texas Tech held Spartans to 31% from floor in a slow 60-possession slugfest, and advance to their first national title game. Spartans were 8-23 inside arc, 7-24 on the arc. Tom Izzo drops to 2-6 in national semifinal games; you have to win a hell of a lot to get to eight Final Fours.

    11) Not sure why this happened, but Cubs/Red Sox still haven’t played a home game yet, and both teams are off to ugly starts, Chicago at 2-6, Boston at 2-8.

    Cubs especially look like a team that didn’t have any spring training; they’re first team since at least 1960 to commit catcher’s interference three games in a row.

    10) Since 1984, 68 baseball teams started the season 1-6; only 3 of those 68 teams made the playoffs that year.

    9) Rockets 120, Knicks 96— Houston led this game 72-43 at halftime Friday night, so it was never in doubt, but with 1:47 left and the subs playing out the string, the Rockets’ bench was mostly empty, with the starters off to the locker room, in a surprising show of disrespect. Only guy who stuck around on the Houston bench was former Knick Iman Shumpert.

    Houston coach Mike D’Antoni missed the game with the flu; assistant Jeff Bzdelik was coaching the team. There is no rule against this, but it shows a lack of class.

    8) 26 of first 55 (47.3%) replay reviews this baseball season resulted in a reversal.

    7) Coaching carousel:
    — Vanderbilt hired Jerry Stackhouse as its new basketball coach.
    — Buffalo promoted assistant Jim Whitesell to head coach.
    — Georgia State hired former Siena coach/Tennessee ass’t Rob Lanier as its coach.
    — Elon hired Mike Schrage as its coach.

    6) Antoine Pettway is an assistant basketball coach at Alabama; he will be working for his 4th different head coach in Tuscaloosa next season. New coach Nate Oats retained Pettway when he was hired last week. Unusual for an assistant coach to stay so long at one place, but he also played at Alabama, and his wife went to school there, too.

    5) St John’s assistant coach Matt Abdelmassih left for Nebraska; now his big recruit for the Red Storm this year, JC point guard Cam Mack has asked for his release from St John’s.

    4) Since 2000, only one major league pitcher has thrown 140+ pitches in an April game; that was Sterling Hitchcock in 2000, and he had Tommy John surgery before 2000 was over.

    3) Baseball injuries:
    — Colorado Rockies put Ryan McMahon on the IL wit a sprained elbow. Rockies called up Josh Fuentes to replace him; Fuentes is Nolan Arenado’s cousin.
    — Red Sox put IF Brock Holt (scratched cornea) on the IL after his 2-year old son poked him in the eye.

    2) Vlade Divac, Sidney Moncrief, Al Attles and Jack Sikma were among 12 people voted into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend.

    1) Some people never learn, I mean really never learn.

    A Florida man was arrested and charged with burglary after police say he broke into cars in the parking lot of the jail from which he had just been released on grand theft charges.

    Oy.

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    Early bettors hammer Under odds for Texas Tech-Virginia title clash
    Patrick Everson

    A week into April, March Madness heads toward its conclusion with Monday night’s championship game. We check in on the opening odds and early action for the NCAA Tournament final, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas, and Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.

    No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers – Open: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -1

    Virginia was the lone No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four and stayed on its feet for one last dance at the Big Dance – barely. The Cavaliers (34-3 SU, 25-12 ATS) had a 10-point lead with five minutes left against No. 5 seed Auburn, blew all that and more, but got a fortuitous noncall of a double dribble, followed by a final-second foul call on a missed 3-pointer.

    Kyle Guy then made all three free throws, giving the Cavs a 63-62 victory as 6-point favorites Saturday.

    Texas Tech has been the best bet of the NCAA Tourney, going 5-0 SU and ATS heading into Monday’s 9:20 p.m. ET championship clash. The Red Raiders (31-6 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) also let a double-digit advantage slip away in the semifinals, turning a 48-35 lead with 9:23 remaining into just a 52-51 edge with 2:35 left against No. 2 seed Michigan State.

    However, Texas Tech closed with a 9-0 run to claim a 61-51 victory as a 1.5-point underdog Saturday, moving to 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games.

    While there was a little jockeying with the opening pointspread, what proved more intriguing was the total. The SuperBook opened at 120, quickly went to 119.5 and ultimately dipped to 118.5 before bettors slowed down their fire. Still, The SuperBook made two trips to 118 before going back to 118.5 late Saturday night.

    “It was a situation where we posted it before anyone else,” Osterman said. “The third bet we took was on the Under, and then a couple more decent-sized bets came in on the Under. And then more places started posting lower totals, so we had to go down too. It was a combination of money and the market. It looks like it’s calmed down a little bit since we went to 118.5.”

    As for the spread, Cavaliers backers definitely liked the opener of -1.

    “The first bet we took was a $5,000 limit bet on Virginia -1,” Osterman said. “We didn’t move off that, but then we went to -1.5 because it looked like the market was gonna stay there. Then the market came back down, and we took a Texas Tech moneyline bet from one of our house players. So we decided to go back to 1.”

    PointsBet opened the total at 118.5 and also drew some early Under cash, dropping to 117.5 by late Saturday night.

    “The first bets were all on the under,” Chaprales said.

    On the spread, Virginia spent the late night bouncing between the opener of -1.5 and -1 at PointsBet.

    “We’re anticipating another rock fight,” Chaprales said before describing out-of-the-gate pointspread action. “The line actually moved to 1 for about 90 seconds. Some immediate Virginia resistance at -1 pushed it back to -1.5. Then more Tech money, back to 1. These numbers are so tight, I could see a ping-pong scenario.”

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Monday, April 8



    Texas Tech @ Virginia

    Game 811-812
    April 8, 2019 @ 9:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas Tech
    80.697
    Virginia
    78.493
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Texas Tech
    by 2
    114
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Virginia
    by 1 1/2
    118
    Dunkel Pick:
    Texas Tech
    (+1 1/2); Under





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, April 8


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    TEXAS TECH (31 - 6) vs. VIRGINIA (34 - 3) - 4/8/2019, 9:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TEXAS TECH is 141-185 ATS (-62.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
    VIRGINIA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VIRGINIA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    VIRGINIA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with one or less days rest this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, April 8


    Virginia won its last three games by total of 10 points, using near-miraculous finishes to win last two games. Cavaliers played two subs a total of 19:00 Saturday; Auburn shot 50% inside arc, but only 9-31 on arc against them. Only Cavalier senior who plays is their 7th man. Virginia is 17-0 outside ACC this year. Texas Tech is 16-1 outside the Big X, with only loss by 11 to Duke on neutral floor. Four of Red Raiders’ five NCAA tourney wins were by 10+ points. Tech starts three seniors; they held Michigan State to 31.9% from floor Saturday.

    — Favorites won/covered five of last eight national title games.
    — Since 2000, #1-seeds are 8-1 in final vs non-#1-seeds (7-2 vs spread).
    — #1-seed won last four national titles; since 1990, #3-seeds are 3-5 in title games, 0-2 vs #1-seeds.
    — Last time a Big X school won national title was Kansas in 2008.




    811Texas Tech -812 Virginia
    VIRGINIA is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

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    THREE REASONS WHY TEXAS TECH COVERS

    NO. 1 DEFENSE!

    Well, obviously, as Texas Tech and Virginia boast two of the best defenses in the country but there are a couple of things that the Red Raiders do particularily well that will frustrate the Cavaliers.

    The first is 3-point defense. The Red Raiders rank 11th in the nation in allowing opponents to shoot just 29.3 percent from behind the arc on the season and have allowed opponents to hit on just 31-of-117 attempts (26.5 percent) so far in the tournament. Virginia relies on the 3-ball for 35.4 percent of its total offense and that’s going to dry up on Monday night.

    The second is that the Red Raiders just don’t allow teams to move the ball around. Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the nation at limiting team assists, allowing just 9.6 per game, the fourth-fewest in the nation. Heading into the Final Four, Michigan State was third in the nation with 18.7 assists per game and then managed just six against the Red Raiders. Virginia has been scoring in the tournament with solid ball movement and is averaging 14.3 assists per game in its last three.

    This is going to be a defensive slugfest with a total that has already ticked down to 118 but the Red Raiders have the defensive edge in a couple of key categories which should help them to their first national title in school history.

    NO. 2 JARRETT CULVER

    Texas Tech needs a better overall performance from Jarrett Culver on Monday. The future NBA lottery prospect was clutch late in the game on Saturday, hitting a key 3-pointer 58 seconds remaining, but he finished the game with just 10 points on 3-of-12 shooting while also adding five boards and five assists. The Big 12 Player of the Year came into the tournament hot, however, averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in four NCAA Tournament games prior to Minneapolis.

    Virginia only lost three times all season and in two of those, it was because Zion Williamson dominated from inside the arc, hitting on 15-of-22 two-point attempts. Culver is not Williamson but he is at his best when he’s driving to the basket and not settling for outside shots. His ability to get to the rim should be a key factor that Texas Tech will look to exploit against the Cavaliers. Culver is by far the Red Raiders’ best player and expect him to bounce back with a big performance on Monday night.

    NO. 3 LUCK RUNS OUT

    Alright, someone has to say it: Virginia is downright lucky to be playing for the national championship on Monday night. That last sequence on Saturday was just silly, first with Ty Jerome getting away with a double-dribble before getting fouled and then the Cavaliers getting bailed out by Auburn’s Samir Doughty as he fouled Kyle Guy on his 3-point attempt with less than a second remaining (and yes, it was a foul). And don’t forget about how Virginia got to Minneapolis, needing a miraculous buzzer-beater from Mamadi Diakite to force overtime against Purdue in the Elite Eight.

    Virginia’s luck runs out on Monday. Texas Tech is a runaway train at the moment that is destroying anything and everything in its path. The Red Raiders are 5-0 against the spread so far in the tournament and will get to 6-0 when they cover — and likely win outright — in the National Championship game on Monday night.


    THREE REASONS WHY VIRGINIA COVERS

    NO. 1 VIRGINIA KNOWS HOW TO WIN CLOSE GAMES

    You have to be good to be lucky, as any sports bettor knows. A cynic might look at Virginia's last couple of results and see luck, but it takes more more than luck to win close games against quality teams like Purdue and Aubun.

    Virginia has proved that when the chips are down they can win close battles. They have the tenacity to fight back from behind as they did against Purdue after trailing 25-16, and they had the mettle to close out a tight finish against an Auburn team that was out for blood in the final five minutes.

    Most people think this championship game is going to be close and if it is, Virginia has the resiliency to win. With a spread this small, I'm more than comfortable taking them to cover as well.

    NO. 2 DISIPLINE

    Texas Tech aren't turnover machines by any stretch of the imagination, but they can't compare to the discipline of Virginia on either side of the ball. Virginia simply refuses to beat itself.

    The Cavaliers commit just 14.3 fouls per game, the sixth fewest in the country, while Texas Tech sits near the middle of the pack with 17.3 which ranks 142nd.

    UVA also rarely turns the ball over, ranking 11th in the nation in turnovers per possession, while TTU ranks 138nd. In a game that should be very close, a foul here and a turnover there will make all the difference.

    NO. 3 REBOUNDING

    During the tournament Texas Tech has played exceptionally well in almost every aspect of the game, except on the boards. The Raiders' rebounding rate of 50.9 percent ranks a modest 125th in the country and over their last three games that number has plummeted to 45.5 percent. Tech's second-leading rebounder Tariq Owens had what looked to be a nasty ankle injury against Michigan State but returned to the floor. It looks like nothing is going to keep Owens out of the lineup in the championship game, but ankle injuries are difficult to play on and could affect his rebounding ability.

    Virginia ranks 18th in the country in rebounding rate at 53.9 percent, and should be able to limit TTU's chances on the offensive end.

    Rebounding, turnovers, and clutch play, these are the things that win championships and Virginia's got the edge which should help them win and cover in Minneapolis.

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