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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/4

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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/4

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, April 4

    Good Luck on day # 94 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Some more very early NFL over/under win totals:

    — Cincinnati 6, over -$115

    — Cleveland 9, over +$120

    — Dallas 8.5, 0ver -$135

    — Denver 7, over -$115

    — Detroit, 7

    — Green Bay 9, 0ver -$125


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

    13) Was looking at an old picture of Ebbets Field in Brooklyn tonight; the dugouts there were a lot closer to the area behind home plate than they are now. I’m guessing dugouts were also much smaller then than they are now.

    Which reminded me of an old story back when the Astros played in the Astrodome; someone told Houston’s owner that he could charge more money for seats behind the dugout, so that season, the Astrodome had the longest dugouts in major league history. Go figure.

    12) Brewers 1, Reds 0— Memo to the Milwaukee analytics geniuses: This one is simple. Every time Freddy Peralta pitches, Manny Pina catches. Every time.

    In 15 games with Pina behind the plate, batters have hit .168 vs Peralta.
    In three games with other catchers, batters have hit .245 against him.

    11) Nationals 9, Phillies 8— Jake Noll walked with the bases loaded to force in the winning run, handing the Phils their first loss, but he was sent to the minor leagues after the game, because Howie Kendrick comes off the DL tomorrow.

    10) Last time the Phillies started a season 4-0? How about 1915. Wow.

    9) Nuggets 113, Spurs 85— I’ve thought about picking NBA games on this site, but there are a lot of reasons why I don’t want to. Players taking games off when they’re not hurt is a big one.

    Gregg Popovich got thrown out of this game 1:03 after it started, so obviously, the game didn’t mean much to him. Since the Spurs clinched a playoff spot last week, Popovich has been ejected twice in the Spurs’ last three games.

    8) Coaching carousel:
    — Texas A&M hired Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams
    — Fairfield hired Rutgers assistant Jay Young as its new coach.

    7) Fred Hoiberg is the new basketball coach at Nebraska; he was born in Lincoln.

    His grandfather Jerry Bush coached the Cornhuskers in the late 50’s. Hoiberg’s other grandfather was a Sociology professor at Nebraska.

    6) There are two basketball Hall of Fames; there is the Naismith Hall of Fame in Springfield, MA which includes all of basketball, and there is the College Basketball Hall of Fame in Kansas City.

    No idea what goes into the selection process for either, but this is odd:
    — Jerry Tarkanian is in the Naismith HOF, but not the college basketball HOF.
    — Eddie Sutton is in the college basketball HOF, but not the Naismith HOF.

    5) Virginia coach Tony Bennett banked a $250K bonus when the Cavaliers won their Sweet 16 game, and another $250K when Virginia made it to the Final Four.

    4) Fantasy baseball is funny sometimes; guy in our league cut Hunter Renfroe this week, and rightfully so, he had only started one game this season, but same night Renfroe got cut, he gets the start against Arizona and hits two homers off of Zack Greinke. Go figure.

    3) Colorado Rockies signed P German Marquez to a five-year, $43M contract extension.

    Cubs signed IF David Bote to a 5-year, $15M extension.

    2) Average salary for an NFL referee this season is scheduled to be $205,000. Pretty good part-time job.

    1) Advance planning: Chicago White Sox’ home opener for Thursday afternoon was postponed at roughly noon Wednesday; it’ll be played Friday instead.

    Likewise, the Cardinals’ home opener with San Diego today was also moved to Friday.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-04-2019 at 12:27 PM.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    Chris David

    The NBA slows down the pace on Thursday with just three games and the grind of the regular season has turned anticipated matchups into afterthoughts due to injuries and rest.

    Let’s break down the card!

    Milwaukee (58-20 SU, 46-29-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (49-30 SU, 36-42 ATS)

    Unfortunately for fans and bettors, this possible playoff preview will be lacking plenty of luster on Thursday as the game will be filled with a lot of backup players. The injury report for the Bucks has seven players listed as ‘out’ or ‘questionable’ while the 76ers will likely be without Joel Embiid and possibly Jimmy Butler as well.

    Follow our Injuries or for faster updates, check out our Lineups feature within our Live Odds.

    These teams just played to a classic battle in Milwaukee on Mar. 17 and the 76ers captured a 130-125 win over the Bucks as 5 ˝-point road underdogs. Embiid scored 40 points for Philadelphia while Butler added 27 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 52 points and posted 16 rebounds in a losing effort for the Bucks, but the team just couldn’t connect from 3-point land (16-of-50) in the loss.

    Milwaukee is ranked second in attempted 3-pointers per game with 38.2 and that ‘make-or-miss’ approach from distance has made the Bucks the top scoring team in the league at 117.9 points per game. Philadelphia isn’t far behind (115.2 PPG) them but the difference for the Bucks is their defense (108.6 PPG) and that production has led to the best point differential (9.3) in the NBA. To put things in perspective, Milwaukee has won 45 of its 58 games this season by 10 points or more.

    Thursday’s encounter will be the third and final meeting of the regular season between the pair. The first meeting took place in late October and Milwaukee defeated Philadelphia 123-108 as a five-point home favorite. The Bucks have lost their last two trips to Philadelphia, which both occurred last season, and both decisions were by double digits as they were held to 94 and 95 points.

    The 76ers will be playing on no rest after losing at Atlanta 130-122 on Tuesday as 4 ˝-point road favorites. Including that setback, Philadelphia has dropped two straight games and four of its last six but the team hasn’t pushed out a full-strength roster in weeks since it’s all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. When facing back-to-back spots this season, Philadelphia has gone 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS while the ‘over’ has gone 8-3.

    While Philadelphia has been on cruise control lately, the Bucks continue to rack up wins despite shuffling players in and out of the roster. Antetokounmpo played for Milwaukee on Monday as the team diced up Brooklyn 131-121 as one-point road underdogs and most reports have him expected to play in this game.

    Since the loss to Philadelphia in mid-March, the Bucks have gone 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS. The two losses came on the road and to a pair of losing clubs (Hawks, Cavaliers) but despite those setbacks, Milwaukee owns the best road mark (26-14 SU, 23-15-2 ATS) in the league. This will be their final road game of the regular season.

    TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.

    Cleveland (19-59 SU, 37-40-1 ATS) at Sacramento (38-40 SU, 44-32-2 ATS)

    The Kings opened as 10-point home favorites over the Cavaliers and the number was pushed down to 9 ˝ as of Thursday morning. I don’t expect Sacramento to lose this game but we did see Chicago (+9 ˝) surprise Washington last night as a heavy road underdog in a meaningless game. While that outcome was an upset, three other heavy double-digit favorites on Wednesday went 3-0 both SU and ATS for ‘chalk’ bettors.

    Sacramento blasted Cleveland 129-110 on Dec. 7 as a three-point road favorite and that was the fourth straight cover for the Kings in this series. The Cavaliers own the worst road record (6-33 SU, 18-20-1 ATS) in the league and they’ve gone 1-9 (5-5 ATS) since the All-Star break as visitors and the defense has allowed 120.1 PPG during this span, which has led to a 7-3 ‘over’ mark.

    The high side (228 ˝) could be the lean in this spot or a better look could be the Sacramento Team Total ‘over’ (119). Sacramento has gone 4-5 at home in the second-half of the season but all five losses came against teams with winning records while the victories were against clubs below .500. In those wins, the Kings averaged 118 PPG while winning by an average of 13.5 PPG.

    Golden State (53-24 SU, 33-43-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (35-43 SU, 31-45-2 ATS)

    The second-half of Thursday’s TNT (10:35 p.m. ET) double-header takes place at the Staples Center when the Warriors (-13) face the Lakers as heavy road favorites. After losing to Los Angeles 127-101 on Christmas Day as nine-point home favorites, the Warriors have avenged that setback with two straight wins (1-1 ATS) against the Lakers and both results came by double digits.

    The holiday upset of Golden State happened to be the turning point of the season for Los Angeles, who lost LeBron James to a groin injury in that win. The club was 20-14 at the time and expected to be a playoff team, possibly a contender. His absence, other key injuries, trade rumors and off-the-court drama watched the team go 15-29 since the X-Mas day win. The Lakers recently shut James down for the season and practically every other viable offensive weapon as well.

    The lack of firepower was evident on Tuesday as Los Angeles was blasted 119-103 at Oklahoma City as a 12 ˝-point road underdog. Prior to that loss, the Lakers had gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their previous five games. They have won three straight games at home entering this matchup but it would be shocking to see that streak extended tonight.

    Golden State’s magic number to earn the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference is “3” and it will likely drop to “2” after beating Los Angeles this evening. Golden State has won four of its last five games and has managed to go 3-2 ATS for bettors despite laying some healthy numbers. The Warriors are no strangers to laying big prices, even on the road.

    Last Friday, the club dropped a 131-130 overtime decision at Minnesota as a 10-point road favorite and that was the first time this season that Golden State lost as a double-digit road favorite. Prior to that decision, the Warriors were 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points away from the Bay Area. The ‘over’ has gone 7-1 in these situations and tonight’s total is listed at 227.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-04-2019 at 12:28 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, April 4



    Milwaukee @ Philadelphia

    Game 525-526
    April 4, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    126.837
    Philadelphia
    117.341
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 9 1/2
    237
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 2 1/2
    230 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Milwaukee
    (-2 1/2); Over

    Cleveland @ Sacramento


    Game 527-528
    April 4, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    106.042
    Sacramento
    120.031
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Sacramento
    by 14
    219
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Sacramento
    by 9 1/2
    228
    Dunkel Pick:
    Sacramento
    (-9 1/2); Under

    Golden State @ LA Lakers


    Game 529-530
    April 4, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Golden State
    123.390
    LA Lakers
    117.361
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 6
    236
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 13
    227
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Lakers
    (+13); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, April 4


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MILWAUKEE (58 - 20) at PHILADELPHIA (49 - 29) - 4/4/2019, 8:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 5-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 5-5 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (19 - 59) at SACRAMENTO (38 - 40) - 4/4/2019, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 77-101 ATS (-34.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 46-66 ATS (-26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 42-60 ATS (-24.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 26-35 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 44-33 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 41-30 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
    SACRAMENTO is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SACRAMENTO is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    SACRAMENTO is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GOLDEN STATE (53 - 24) at LA LAKERS (35 - 43) - 4/4/2019, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 33-43 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 29-40 ATS (-15.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 134-97 ATS (+27.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
    GOLDEN STATE is 84-57 ATS (+21.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    LA LAKERS are 31-45 ATS (-18.5 Units) in all games this season.
    LA LAKERS are 27-39 ATS (-15.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
    LA LAKERS are 187-230 ATS (-66.0 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
    LA LAKERS are 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    LA LAKERS are 26-35 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA LAKERS is 6-5 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 9-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    525Milwaukee -526 Philadelphia
    PHILADELPHIA is 12-0 ATS (12 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the current season.

    527Cleveland -528 Sacramento
    SACRAMENTO is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game in the current season.

    529Golden State -530 La Lakers
    LA LAKERS are 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days in the last 3 seasons.

    529Golden State -530 La Lakers
    Luke Walton is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days (Coach of LA LAKERS)




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, April 4


    Milwaukee won five of its last six games; they’re 5-4 vs spread in last nine road games. Four of their last five games went over. Philly lost four of its last six games; they’re 3-1-2 vs spread in last six home games. Seven of their last ten games went over. Bucks/76ers split their last ten meetings; Milwaukee is 2-2 vs spread in its last four visits to Philly. Last four series games went over the total.

    Cavaliers lost five of their last six games; they’re 6-4 vs spread in last 10 road games. Eight of their last nine games went over. Sacramento lost three of its last four games; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five games as a favorite. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Kings won three of last four games with Cleveland; five of last seven series games went over the total. Cavaliers are 2-2 vs spread in their last four visits to Sacramento.

    Golden State won six of its last eight games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six road games. Under is 15-4 in their last 19 games. Lakers won four of their last six games; they covered their last three home games. Six of their last eight games stayed under. Warriors won nine of last ten games with the Lakers, but LA covered five of last seven; Warriors are 2-2 vs spread in last four series games played here.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-04-2019 at 12:29 PM.

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    NBA's Top OVER referees (min. 10 games):

    1. Marat Kogut 41-22
    2. Kevin Cutler 33-18
    t3. Tony Brothers 37-22
    t3. Jason Phillips 37-22
    5. Derek Richardson 30-18
    6. Jacyn Goble 28-17
    7. Mousa Dagher 19-12
    8. Michael Smith 32-21


    NBA's Top UNDER referees (min. 10 games):

    1. Gediminas Petraitis 40-21
    2. Derrick Collins 36-20
    3. Brian Forte 37-23
    4. Ron Garretson 34-22
    t5. Rodney Mott 36-24
    t5. Natalie Sago 18-12
    7. John Goble 35-24
    8. Tom Washington 33-23

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    By: Monique Vág



    Two beasts in the East

    The 76ers and Bucks have split their most recent 10 games in the head-to-head. The Bucks have the best road record in the Association on the road at 26-14, and the 76ers have won 30 of 39 at home. In their most recent meeting, the 76ers pulled off the road upset 130-125 putting up 62 points at halftime.

    Both the Bucks and the 76ers have been very efficient in the first half of games. Over the most recent three games, the Bucks and 76ers rank first and third in first quarter points per game with Philadelphia averaging 36, and Milwaukee averaging 35.3. With both teams averaging 47 percent or better from the field and shooting the ball well early, back the first quarter total Over 57.


    Back the Bucks Big Man

    Milwaukee’s Brook Lopez is in a favorable position versus a 76ers squad who have struggled to defend opposing centers allowing 24.3 points on 53.9 percent shooting and 13.6 rebounds per game. In their previous two meetings this season, Lopez shot 7 of 13 from the floor, and 5 of 11 from beyond the arc for 21 points, then 4 of 11 from the floor with three made 3-point shots for 14 points. Look for him to take advantage of the matchup and back Over his points total of 13.5.


    Impressive Rookie

    The Cavaliers travel to Sacramento as 9.5-point underdogs and have only won six of 39 games on the road this season. In the most recent three games in the head-to-head, the Kings have outscored Cleveland 111-102, shooting just shy of 52 percent from the floor.

    Last time these two teams met up, Sacramento’s Marvin Bagley III went 8 of 9 from the floor for 17 points. He has scored 16 or more points in seven of the most recent nine games, and looks to build off his rookie year success. Back Over his points total of 17.5.

    Getting out to an early lead

    The Cavaliers have really struggled in the first half of games away from home averaging only 49.9 points, which is second-worst in the Association. The Kings will be at full strength today and enter averaging 56.7 first-half points.

    Without Kevin Love for the third straight game, the Cavaliers might struggle to put up points, especially early on where the Kings have excelled. Back the Kings on the first-half spread of 5.5-points.


    High-powered Parlay

    The Warriors are 13-point favorites as they travel to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. The Warriors have won seven of the last 10 games and have scored over 130 points in two of their most recent three outings.

    The Warriors should put this game away early versus a Lakers team who surrender 113.7 points a game. Look for Stephen Curry to continue his hot shooting and go Over his points total of 24.5. Instead of getting -120 odds at a standard bet, take the Warriors to win and Stephen Curry Over 24.5 points to increase the potential payout.

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