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Thread: Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/2

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    Default Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/2

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, April 2

    Good Luck on day # 92 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    — If you bet $100 on the Orioles in their first four games, you’d already be up $635.

    — Tampa Bay (4-1) leads the Orioles (3-1) by a half-game atop the AL East.

    — South Florida 63, DePaul 61— Bulls lead best-of-3 series, 1-0.

    — Of the 17 NFL referees in 2014, only six of them still work in the NFL.

    — Knicks 113, Bulls 105— Knicks cover as home favorite for 1st time since Nov. 7.

    — Wonder how much it costs to open/close the roof at Marlins’ Park?


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

    13) Being involved in fantasy baseball and handicapping baseball teaches you patience; it is a very long season. There is a tendency to overreact to stuff that happens in the first week of the season, but as the cliche goes, it is a marathon, not a sprint.

    12) Go through this every year; baseball players get hurt.
    — Giancarlo Stanton (biceps strain) goes on the IL.
    — 3B Miguel Andujar (labrum tear in shoulder) also went on the IL.
    — Rays put 3B Joey Wendle (hamstring) on IL.
    — Toronto put P Clayton Richard (knee) on IL.

    11) Cardinals 6, Pirates 5 (11)— Chris Archer threw five shutout innings, bullpen blew a 4-0 lead. Archer threw 99 pitches in those five innings. Pirates wound up using eight relievers over the last six innings.

    10) Orioles 6, Blue Jays 5— David Hess threw 6.1 hitless innings (82 pitches), then was taken out of the game. Toronto quickly scored two runs; Orioles hung on for dear life.

    9) Braves 8, Cubs 0— Chicago made five errors in first five innings of this game; they’ve lost the last three days, giving up 26 runs. Rough start to the season.

    8) Mets 7, Marlins 3— Pete Alonso hit his first major league homer, a 440-foot blast, in front of 6,489 fans, most of whom were rooting for the visitors from New York.

    7) Belmont basketball coach Rick Byrd is retiring after coaching the Bruins for 33 years. Byrd won 805 games and made NCAA tournament eight times.

    Belmont led the country in 2-point FG% in five of the last seven seasons.

    6) If you bet on AAF games, some info thru eight weeks:
    — Favorites are 22-10 SU, 16-16 vs spread
    — Home teams are 18-14 SU, 16-16 vs spread.
    — Under is 18-13-1.

    5) Red Sox signed SS Xander Bogaerts to a 7-year, $132M contract extension.

    4) There is a new minor league team this year, the Amarillo Sod Poodles, AA affiliate of the San Diego Padres. Minor league nicknames are getting weirder and weirder.

    3) Phillies had four sellouts all of last year; after three home games this season, they’ve already had three sellouts. Curious to see what kind of reaction Bryce Harper gets in Washington when the Phillies play there tonight.

    2) Cleveland Plain Dealer newspaper has laid off one-third of its staff. 20 years ago, the paper had 340 journalists; now it’s down to 33.

    1. Normal field for a PGA Tour event is 144 golfers, but The Masters has a different set of requirements. Right now, only 86 players have qualified for next week’s tournament, which would be the smallest field at Augusta since 1997.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-02-2019 at 12:47 PM.

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    Tuesday's NIT Semifinals
    Kevin Rogers

    Lipscomb (-1, 150 ½) vs. Wichita State – 7:00 PM EST – ESPN

    This isn’t exactly the matchup people expected for the semifinals when the NIT began as Lipscomb (28-7 SU, 18-15 ATS) was a five-seed and Wichita State (22-14 SU, 21-14-1 ATS) was listed as a six-seed. The Bison were one win away from capturing the automatic bid out of the Atlantic Sun conference, but lost to Liberty at home, 74-68 to settle for the NIT.

    Liberty proved to be a worthy champion from the A-Sun as the Flames bounced Mississippi State in the opening round of the NCAA tournament. However, Lipscomb didn’t hang its head for the consolation prize of playing in the NIT as the Bison went on the road (all in the state of North Carolina) to knock off Davidson, UNC-Greensboro, and North Carolina State all in the underdog role.

    Lipscomb rallied to beat Davidson in the opening round as 2 ½-point underdogs, 89-81 as the Bison erased a five-point halftime deficit. The Bison shot 53% from the floor, led by Michael Buckland’s 18 points as Lipscomb connected on 11 three-pointers. Lipscomb crushed top-seed UNC-Greensboro in the second round, 86-69 as 1 ½-point ‘dogs, paced by Rob Marberry’s 24 points on 12-of-13 shooting from the floor to help the Bison improve to 7-2 ATS this season when receiving points.

    The final victory for Lipscomb was a thrilling one in Raleigh as the Bison squeezed past N.C. State, 94-93, while outscoring the Wolfpack in the second half, 56-46. Another member of the Bison was the star this time around as senior guard Garrison Matthews went off for 44 points, while drilling eight treys. Lipscomb entered the NIT on a 2-7 ATS run, which included six non-covers as a double-digit favorite. The underdog role worked out for the Bison, who are playing in their first ever NIT Final Four.

    Wichita State had an invitation to the Big Dance in each of the previous seven seasons, including a Final Four appearance in 2013, but a complete roster overhaul put the Shockers in unfamiliar territory. The Shockers lost three games in November, while suffering five defeats before AAC play even began (WSU lost eight games all of last season).

    Gregg Marshall’s team started AAC action at 1-6, including ugly back-to-back double-digit road losses to UConn and USF. However, things slowly started to turn around for the Shockers, who compiled a 9-2 run to finish conference play, although none of the victories came against great competition (six wins against Tulane, East Carolina, and SMU). Wichita State managed a pair of AAC tournament victories over East Carolina and Temple before getting squeezed by Cincinnati in the semifinals as five-point ‘dogs in a 66-63 setback.

    Just like Lipscomb, Wichita State had to do its damage on the highway as the Shockers beat Furman, Clemson, and Indiana on the road to make its first NIT Final Four since 2011 (which they won). After knocking off Furman as a 4 ½-point underdog in the first round, 76-70, the Shockers tripped up Clemson, 63-55 as 6 ½-point ‘dogs, while limiting the Tigers to 28% shooting from the floor. Wichita State took care of top-seed Indiana, 73-63 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs, 73-63, while limiting its eighth opponent in the last 10 games to less than 70 points.

    Since failing to cover in the season finale victory at Tulane, the Shockers have covered six consecutive games, while becoming the first team in the history of the NIT to defeat the top three seeds on its way to the semifinals. This is the first ever meeting between Wichita State and Lipscomb, as the Bison look for their second win against an AAC squad after topping SMU as 10-point underdogs in November.

    Texas vs. TCU (-1 ½, 138) – 9:30 PM EST – ESPN

    The Big 12 has three teams going to the Final Four, all from the Lone Star State. Technically, Texas Tech is heading to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament, while Texas and TCU have to settle for meeting in Madison Square Garden in the NIT semifinals. There is plenty of pride on the line between these two state and conference rivals as the Horned Frogs (23-13 SU, 18-18 ATS) pulled off the season sweep of the Longhorns (19-16 SU, 16-19 ATS).

    TCU has captured five of the past six matchups in the series dating back to 2017 as both victories this season finished UNDER the total. These teams first met on January 23 in Fort Worth as the Horned Frogs slipped past the Longhorns, 65-61 to barely cash as three-point favorites. Both teams struggled from the floor by shooting less than 41%, while Desmond Bane led TCU with 17 points. The Horned Frogs grabbed the sweep in Austin in the regular season finale, 69-56 as seven-point underdogs, as Bane went off for 34 points on 14-of-20 shooting from the floor, while the Longhorns shot just 37%.

    The Horned Frogs hoisted the NIT championship in 2017, capped off by a blowout of Georgia Tech in the title game. TCU was one-and-done in the NCAA tournament last season after losing to Syracuse in the first round, but got off to a 12-1 start this season with the lone defeat coming to Lipscomb at home. However, the Horned Frogs lost their first five road Big 12 games, while suffering 1-6 run towards the end of the season prior to the victory at Texas on March 9.

    Texas jumped out to a 5-0 start, including a neutral-site upset of North Carolina in Las Vegas as nine-point underdogs in November. However, the Longhorns fell the next day to Michigan State in that same tournament, which began a three-game losing skid which included losses to Radford and VCU at home. Shaka Smart’s team leaped out to a 2-0 record in Big 12 play, as the Longhorns won at eventual conference champion Kansas State in the opener.

    The ‘Horns lost five of next six games after the 2-0 start, including a 10-point setback in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge to Georgia, who finished near the bottom of the league. There were several highlight wins at home, including victories over Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa State in Austin, but Texas picked up only one road win after beating K-State which came at last-place West Virginia in early February.

    Both Texas and TCU reached the NIT semifinals by going 3-0 at home in their first three tournament contests. The Longhorns squeezed by South Dakota State in the opening round, 79-73 as eight-point favorites in spite of jumping out to a 19-0 lead. Texas held off Xavier in the second round, 78-76 in overtime, but once again couldn’t cash as four-point chalk. Leading scorer Kerwin Roach II, who missed the final four regular season games due to a suspension, paced Texas with 21 points, only the fourth game he has topped the 20-point mark this season.

    Texas captured a win in its final home game of the season by blasting former conference rival Colorado, 68-55 as five-point favorites. Although the final margin was 13 points, the Longhorns built a commanding 44-19 halftime lead to reach their first NIT semifinals since 1978, the year they claimed their only NIT championship.

    TCU is the only top seed remaining as it won all three of its NIT games by double-digits at home. The first victim was state counterpart Sam Houston State in an 82-69 triumph as 12-point favorites, followed up by an 88-72 rout of Nebraska as 4 ½-point chalk in the second round. TCU rallied past Creighton in the third round, 71-58 by outscoring the Bluejays, 41-25 in the second half as Kouat Noi led the Horned Frogs with 25 points. The Horned Frogs started the season at 5-0 ATS away from Fort Worth, but have covered only three of their last 11 games on the highway.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-02-2019 at 12:47 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, April 2



    Hampton @ Marshall

    Game 723-724
    April 2, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hampton
    55.023
    Marshall
    56.521
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Marshall
    by 1 1/2
    184
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Marshall
    by 5 1/2
    173 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Hampton
    (+5 1/2); Over

    Wichita State @ Lipscomb


    Game 709-710
    April 2, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Wichita State
    68.933
    Lipscomb
    63.163
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Wichita State
    by 6
    155
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Wichita State
    Pick
    150 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Wichita State
    Over

    Texas Southern @ Green Bay


    Game 725-726
    April 2, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas Southern
    53.234
    Green Bay
    56.614
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 3 1/2
    187
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 5
    176
    Dunkel Pick:
    Texas Southern
    (+5); Over

    Texas @ TCU


    Game 711-712
    April 2, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas
    69.726
    TCU
    73.641
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    TCU
    by 4
    130
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    TCU
    by 1
    138 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    TCU
    (-1); Under





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Tuesday, April 2


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WICHITA ST (22 - 14) vs. LIPSCOMB (28 - 7) - 4/2/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WICHITA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    WICHITA ST is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    LIPSCOMB is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    LIPSCOMB is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    LIPSCOMB is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
    LIPSCOMB is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
    LIPSCOMB is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
    WICHITA ST is 230-186 ATS (+25.4 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
    WICHITA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TEXAS (19 - 16) vs. TCU (23 - 13) - 4/2/2019, 9:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TEXAS is 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
    TEXAS is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
    TCU is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    TCU is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    TCU is 194-242 ATS (-72.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
    TCU is 120-157 ATS (-52.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TCU is 5-1 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
    TCU is 5-1 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HAMPTON (18 - 16) at MARSHALL (21 - 14) - 4/2/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MARSHALL is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
    HAMPTON is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
    HAMPTON is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
    HAMPTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HAMPTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MARSHALL is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) in all games this season.
    MARSHALL is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MARSHALL is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
    MARSHALL is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TEXAS SOUTHERN (24 - 13) at WI-GREEN BAY (20 - 16) - 4/2/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WI-GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
    TEXAS SOUTHERN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.
    TEXAS SOUTHERN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
    TEXAS SOUTHERN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Tuesday, April 2


    Hampton is 5-8 outside Big South (#211 NC sked); they won three of last four true road games, losing by seven at Campbell in Big South tourney. Pirates won eight of last nine games after being 10-15 at one point this season; they’re experience team #8 that plays pace #31 with a bench that doesn’t play much (minutes #300). Marshall won eight of its last nine games, winning last five home games; Thundering Herd is 9-6 outside C-USA; they play 5th-fastest tempo in country, are experience team #143 (#26 in MC).

    Texas Southern is 6-8 outside SWAC, but all 14 of those games were on road; their first D-I home game this season was Jan 19 (they did have two non-D-I home games). Tigers won 16 of their last 18 games overall, winning their last eight true road games. TSU won its last game in triple OT at ULM, rallying back from down 14 in 2nd half. Wisc-Green Bay scored 93.3 ppg in winning first three games in this event; Phoenix is experience team #105 that plays tempo #12- they’re 7-7 outside Horizon (NC sked #10). Green Bay won six of its last seven home games.

    NIT, New York City

    Lipscomb has to be very fired up to be playing in NYC; they’re located in Nashville, so they’re not yokels, but national TV for an A-Sun team is a big deal. Lipscomb won at TCU this year, lost by 4 at Louisville; they beat NC State 94-93 in Raleigh LW, making 14-28 on arc. Bisons are #48 experience team whose eFG% is #48 in country. Wichita State won 14 of its last 17 games after starting season 8-11; they’re experience team #274 (#346 in MC) that has been riding on back of senior F McDuffie. All three of Shockers’ NIT wins were true road games.

    TCU beat Texas twice this season, 65-61 at home, then 69-56 in Austin; Texas took total of only 16 FT’s in those two games. Longhorns lost their last four games away from home- their last road win was Feb 9 in West Virginia. Texas is experience team #281 that plays tempo #320. TCU won five of its last six games, winning two of last three on road; Horned Frogs are #203 that is very thin due to in-season defections. TCU scored 80.3 ppg in winning its last three games. Dixon is rumored to be in the mix for the UCLA job; he is a TCU alum but grew up in LA.




    NCAAB

    Tuesday, April 2


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Wichita State @ Lipscomb
    Wichita State
    Wichita State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Wichita State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    Lipscomb
    No trends to report

    Hampton @ Marshall
    Hampton
    No trends to report
    Marshall
    Marshall is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Marshall's last 5 games at home

    Texas @ TCU
    Texas
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Texas's last 12 games when playing TCU
    TCU
    TCU is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    TCU is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas

    Texas Southern @ Wisconsin-Green Bay
    Texas Southern
    No trends to report
    Wisconsin-Green Bay
    Wisconsin-Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Wisconsin-Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    709Wichita St -710 Lipscomb
    WICHITA ST is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games in the current season.

    711Texas -712 Tcu
    TCU is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season in the current season.

    717S Florida -718 Depaul
    DEPAUL is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals since 1997.

    723Hampton -724 Marshall
    HAMPTON is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the current season.

    725Texas Southern -726 Wi Green Bay
    WI-GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) as a home fav of 3.5 to 6 over the last 2 seasons.

    725Texas Southern -726 Wi Green Bay
    TEXAS SOUTHERN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) when the total is >=160 over the last 2 seasons.

    725Texas Southern -726 Wi Green Bay
    Johnny Jones is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games (Coach of TEXAS SOUTHERN)
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-02-2019 at 12:48 PM.

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    NIT

    Favorites: 19-9 SU & 12-16 ATS
    O/U: 14-14

    CIT

    Favorites: 12-9 SU & 9-12 ATS
    O/U: 10-11-1

    CBI

    Favorites: 14-1 SU & 7-7-1 ATS
    O/U: 9-6
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-02-2019 at 12:49 PM.

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    TUESDAY, APRIL 2
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    WICH at LIP 07:00 PM
    LIP -1.0
    O 150.5


    HAMP at MRSH 07:00 PM
    HAMP +7.0
    O 174.0


    TEX at TCU 09:00 PM
    TCU -1.0
    U 138.0


    TXSO at GB 09:00 PM
    GB -6.0
    O 175.5
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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