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Thread: Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/31

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    Default Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/31

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, March 31

    Good Luck on day # 90 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    NCAA betting props and how they’re making out:

    — OVC 1.5 wins: Murray State/Belmont both won a game. OVER

    — Pac-12 1.5 wins: Oregon won twice, ASU/Washington one each. OVER

    — SEC 10.5 wins: Sitting at 11 wins, OVER

    — WCC 3.5 wins: Gonzaga won three, Saint Mary’s lost in 1st round. UNDER

    — #1 seeds 13 wins: Sitting at 12, with Duke/Virginia still alive.

    — #2 seeds 10 wins: Sitting at 10, with Kentucky, Michigan State alive.


    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

    13) Texas Tech 75, Gonzaga 69— Red Raiders make their first-ever trip to the Final Four. Gonzaga was in Elite 8 for third time in five years; they’re 1-2 in Elite 8 games.

    It is easy to sit here and say that Texas Tech was toughened up by playing in a better league than Gonzaga plays in— Zags thrash everyone in their league every year. Not sure thats why Tech won this game, but they’re athletic as hell and they play very good defense.

    Red Raiders also lost five of their top seven players from last year’s team; to make the Final Four with that much turnover on your roster is very impressive.

    12) This trend has legs, but I’m not sure why. Over the last 22 years, underdogs are now 18-4 vs spread in the final of the West Region, 13-9 SU.

    11) Virginia 80, Purdue 75 OT— Tremendous game. Damn shame someone had to lose.

    Purdue’s Carsen Edwards scored 42 points, with no assists; not sure why he passed the ball on their last possession, but he threw the ball away. Amazing shooting performance.

    Over the last 40 years, Purdue has had only two basketball coaches, Gene Keady, Matt Painter; Drake and Siena have had three coaches the last three years.

    Solid lookalike submitted by The Professor: Matt Painter and WWE’s Shane McMahon.

    10) Auburn F Chuma Okeke tore his ACL, is having surgery Tuesday, very bad news for Auburn’s hopes of going to the Final Four.

    9) When the 3-point shot became a thing in the NBA for the 1979-80 season, there were players in the NBA who believed that 3-pointers should only be allowed in the 4th quarter, and kind of a come-from-behind gimmick.

    Was funny reading that this week, seeing how prominent 3-pointers have become in both pro and college basketball.

    8) Regional finals with teams from same league, last 10 years:2017: South Carolina (+3) 77, Florida 70
    2016: North Carolina (-6.5) 88, Notre Dame 74
    Syracuse (+6.5) 68, Virginia 62
    2013: Syracuse (-2.5) 55, Providence 39

    Auburn-Kentucky play in a regional final today.

    7) Nebraska hired Fred Hoiberg as basketball coach, will pay him $3.57M a year, thats 3rd-highest salary in Big 14, 11th-highest in country.

    6) Lakers will sit Lebron James down for the last six games of what has been a forgettable 34-42 season.

    LA Clippers are 12-2 in March, the NBA’s best record this month.

    5) Detroit Tigers lost 3-0 Saturday; they’ve lost two of their first three games, with only runs they’ve scored so far this week in 10th inning Thursday. So in three games, Detroit hasn’t scored yet in innings 1-9. Oy.

    4) There is a gambling thing in Las Vegas that is a little weird; in NCAA tourney games, you can bet on which team will get to 15 points first. Random wager to create more action.

    I was at the MGM Grand for the 2010 NCAA’s, and I’m watching Northern Iowa, and some kid makes a basket- the three young guys next to me start jumping up and down and hugging each other. I actually asked them if the kid that scored was their brother.

    They explained that they won their “first to 15” bet. Had never heard of it before. If you had a lot of extra time, you could research all that, but not even I would enjoy researching all that.

    3) When Jacob deGrom/Max Scherzer both struck out 10+ guys Thursday, it was only the second time EVER that both starters struck out 10+ on Opening Day.

    Back in 1970 in an Orioles-Indians opener, Dave McNally and Sam McDowell both struck out 10+, and McNally wasn’t a big strikeout guy.

    2) Crowds at Rockies-Marlins in Miami? 6,503 Friday, 7,642 Saturday.

    Colorado’s Daniel Murphy broke a finger on his left hand Friday, is going on the DL.

    1) Diamondbacks 5, Dodgers 4 (13)— This Friday night game lasted until 4:13am Saturday morning; at one point, the home plate ump got drilled in the mask by a pitch that totally crossed up the catcher- he left the game couple innings later, after the 11th inning.

    This was longest regular season game, in terms of time, in Dodger Stadium history.

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    Last edited by Udog; 03-31-2019 at 08:30 AM.

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    Sunday's Elite Eight Tips
    David Schwab

    The other half of this year’s Final Four will be decided on Sunday with the championship matchup in both the Midwest and East Regions.

    First off in an all-SEC showdown, the No. 5 Auburn Tigers tangle with the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats for a trip to the Final Four out of the Midwest bracket.

    Over in the East, the Big Ten’s Michigan State Spartans will square off against the ACC’s No. 1 Duke Blue Devils for the final spot in the 2019 NCAA Tournament semifinals.

    Midwest Region Final (Kansas City, MO.)

    No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (CBS, 2:20 p.m. ET)


    Opening Odds: Kentucky -3, 143 ½

    Betting Matchup

    Auburn started this run to the Elite Eight by winning this year’s SEC Tournament. The Tigers upended Tennessee 84-65 in the championship game on March 17 as five-point underdogs. Their current straight-up winning streak stands at 11 games with victories over New Mexico State, Kansas and North Carolina in this tournament. Auburn has gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games with the total going OVER in the Tigers’ last four contests.

    In Friday’s 97-80 romp over No. 1 North Carolina as a 5 ½-point underdog, Auburn lit it up from three-point range by going 17-for-37 from beyond the arc. Sophomore forward Chuma Okeke shot a blistering 72.2 percent from the field to lead the way with a game-high 20 points. However, he left the floor in the closing minutes after tearing the ACL in his left knee. He will miss the remainder of the NCAA Tournament.

    Two of Kentucky’s 15 conference wins this season came against Auburn. The Wildcats covered the closing number in both games with the total evenly split 1-1. Heading in the third meeting this year, they are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games with tournament victories against Abilene Christian, Wofford and Houston. They covered the closing spread in all three games despite winning the last two games by a combined 10 points.

    The total stayed UNDER 135 ½ points in Friday’s 62-58 victory against Houston as two-point favorites. It has stayed UNDER in eight of Kentucky’s last 10 games. PJ Washington missed the first two rounds of this tournament with a foot injury, but the sophomore forward made his presence felt in the Sweet 16 with 16 points on Friday night while shooting 75 percent from the field.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games and they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of their last 15 games against a SU winning team.

    -- The Wildcats have a 6-1-2 record ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games at a neutral site and it has stayed under in 13 of its last 16 games in this tournament.

    -- Kentucky has won four of the last six meetings SU, but Auburn has the slight 3-2-1 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of the last 15 games between the two.


    East Region Final (Washington DC)

    No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (CBS, 5:05 p.m. ET)


    Opening Odds: Duke -1 ½, 148 ½

    Betting Matchup

    The Spartans’ current SU winning streak reached eight games with Friday’s 80-63 rout of LSU as six-point favorites. They have covered the spread in six of those games. The total stayed UNDER 148 points in that win and it has stayed UNDER in four of their last five contests.

    Michigan State started this tournament with SU victories against Bradley and Minnesota after beating Michigan 65-60 as a slight 1 ½-point underdog in the Big Ten Tournament’s championship game.

    Aaron Henry suffered the wrath of Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo earlier in this tournament and he responded on Friday night with his best game of the season. The freshman forward scored a team-high 20 points with eight rebounds and six assists to help lead his team to the Elite Eight.

    Duke has been on a roll since mid-March with a SU six-game winning streak that includes a 73-63 victory against Florida State in the ACC Tournament’s title game as a seven-point favorite. This run also includes Friday night’s tight 75-73 win against conference foe Virginia Tech laying seven points on the closing line. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in seven of their last eight games. The total went OVER 143 points in Friday’s contest after staying UNDER in six of their previous eight games.

    Freshman sensation Zion Williamson scored a game-high 23 points in Friday’s win while going 11-for-14 from the field. Forward RJ Barrett added 18 points and 11 assists with Tre Jones scoring 22 points to help seal the trip to Sunday’s East Region Championship. A fourth freshman, Cam Reddish sat this one out with a bad knee. He's 'questionable' for Sunday and listed as a game-time decision. Reddish is Duke's third-leading scorer behind Barrett and Williamson.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Spartans have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 nonconference games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on Sunday. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament.

    -- The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against the Big Ten, but they have failed to cover in their last five NCAA Tournament games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 23 of their last 31 games following a SU win.

    -- Duke has a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last four games in this Big Ten/ACC tilt.

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    691Michigan St -692 Duke
    MICHIGAN ST is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) in the current season.

    693Auburn -694 Kentucky
    AUBURN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last 2 seasons.




    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Sunday, March 31


    Auburn @ Kentucky

    Game 693-694
    March 31, 2019 @ 2:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Auburn
    71.429
    Kentucky
    78.833
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kentucky
    by 7 1/2
    147
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kentucky
    by 4
    142
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kentucky
    (-4); Over

    Michigan State @ Duke


    Game 691-692
    March 31, 2019 @ 5:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Michigan State
    75.251
    Duke
    80.326
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Duke
    by 5
    154
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Duke
    by 2
    149 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Duke
    (-2); Over





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, March 31


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    MICHIGAN ST (31 - 6) at DUKE (32 - 5) - 3/31/2019, 5:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DUKE is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997.
    DUKE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    DUKE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997.
    MICHIGAN ST is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 101-65 ATS (+29.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
    MICHIGAN ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
    DUKE is 66-94 ATS (-37.4 Units) in March games since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
    DUKE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    AUBURN (29 - 9) at KENTUCKY (30 - 6) - 3/31/2019, 2:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KENTUCKY is 95-65 ATS (+23.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
    KENTUCKY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KENTUCKY is 2-2 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
    KENTUCKY is 3-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Sunday, March 31


    Last six years, underdogs are 15-9 vs spread in regional finals.

    Auburn loses F Okeke with torn ACL. Kentucky beat Auburn twice this year, 82-80 on road, 80-53 at home; Wildcats won 19 of last 21 series games (5-2 in last seven, with both losses at Auburn). Kentucky won six of its last seven games overall; Calipari is 4-2 in regional finals at Kentucky, with last Final Four in 2015. Washington scored 16 points in 26:00 in his return from injury Friday; three Wildcats played 34:00+. Kentucky is experience team #351 that plays pace #284- they get 22.8% of points on foul line (#15). Auburn won its last 11 games since the loss at Kentucky; they’re experience team #37 that forces turnovers 25% of time. This is 5th time in last 10 years two teams from same league met in regional final; dogs went 2-2 vs spread in last four.

    Duke is 0-3 vs spread in this tournament, 3-12 vs spread in last 15 games overall; Reddish didn’t play Friday, is gametime decision here. Duke beat Indiana by 21, their only Big 14 game this year. Blue Devils won their last two games by total of three points; they’re experience team #349. Michigan State won 13 of last 14 games after a 3-game skid in early February; they’re #140 experience team with #4 defensive eFG%. lost in OT at Louisville in its one ACC game. Since 2005, Duke is 2-1 vs MSU in NCAA’s, beating MSU in Final Four in 2015. Duke has been to one Final Four since 2011, going 1-2 in Elite 8 games since; Spartans are 7-2 in last nine Elite 8 games. Blue Devils won last meeting with MSU 88-81 in Nov ’17 on a neutral floor.




    NCAAB

    Sunday, March 31


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Auburn Tigers
    Auburn is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
    Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games
    Auburn is 2-21 SU in its last 23 games when playing Kentucky
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games when playing Kentucky
    Kentucky Wildcats
    Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Kentucky is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 6 games
    Kentucky is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Auburn
    Kentucky is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games when playing Auburn
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games when playing Auburn

    Michigan State Spartans
    Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games
    Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Duke
    Michigan State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Duke
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Michigan State's last 9 games when playing Duke
    Duke Blue Devils
    Duke is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
    Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Duke's last 20 games
    Duke is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
    Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Duke's last 9 games when playing Michigan State


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