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Thread: Saturday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/30

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    Default Saturday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/30

    Trends and Indexes

    Saturday, March 30

    Good Luck on day # 89 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

    NCAA betting props and how they’re making out:

    — AAC 3.5 wins- They won three (Houston 2, UCF one) UNDER

    — ACC 15 wins- Sitting at 12 wins, with Duke/Virginia still alive.

    — A-14 0.5 wins— they went 0-2, with Saint Louis/VCU both losing. UNDER

    — Big East 3.5 wins— Seton Hall/Villanova won one game each. UNDER

    — Big 14 10.5 wins— Sitting at 12 wins. OVER

    — Big X 7 wins— Sitting at six wins, with Texas Tech still alive.


    **********

    Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

    13) Auburn 97, North Carolina 80— Didn’t see this coming. Since 1993, Tar Heels were 13-1 in this round; not sure if Nassir Little’s illness was a factor, but the whole team looked sick and kind of lackluster.

    NCAA enforcement people must be thrilled; Auburn had one assistant coach indicted last year, another one has been suspended as part of the adidas payoff scandal. Now the Tigers are in the Elite 8 for only the second time (1986). Go figure.

    Bad news for Auburn; they lost F Chuma Okeke with a knee injury that the Auburn people said was likely a serious one.

    12) Duke 75, Virginia Tech 73— Understood that this is irrelevent, but Duke is 0-3 vs spread in this tournament, 3-12 vs spread in their last 15 games. Tre Jones was shooting 23.2% on the arc before this game; he went 5-7 Friday and saved the Blue Devils’ butts.

    Buzz Williams is supposedly off to Texas A&M next season; if he doesn’t already have a deal with the Aggies, his price tag probably went up a little during this game.

    11) Michigan State 80, LSU 63— Spartans get to the Elite 8 for first time in four years; since 2005, Izzo is 4-1 in Elite 8 games. As for LSU, their search for a new coach heads into high gear, since HC Will Wade is also part of the adidas debacle.

    10) Kentucky 62, Houston 58— Tyler Herro scored the last five points of the game; Kentucky will play SEC rival Auburn in the regional final Sunday.

    9) Cardinals 9, Brewers 5— In his second game for the Cardinals, Paul Goldschmidt hit three home runs.

    8) Opening Day rosters in the major leagues have 251 players who were born outside this country, representing 20 different countries and territories.

    7) Coaching carousel:
    — Cal Bears hired former Nevada/Georgia coach Mark Fox.

    6) Brewers closer Corey Knebel will undergo Tommy John surgery next week; Josh Hader is expected to do most of the closing for Milwaukee.

    5) Angels OF Justin Upton will be out 8-12 weeks (turf toe).

    4) West Virginia could have eight returning basketball players next season, but four of them put their names in the transfer portal, which means they might transfer. They don’t have to, but obviously they’re looking into it. Mountaineers could have as many as nine scholarships open.

    3) This was Virginia’s third Sweet 16 in the last six years; it is their second Elite 8. In the 13 years before Tony Bennett got to Charlottesville, Virginia won a total of one NCAA tournament game.

    2) Colorado 6, Miami 1— CF Ian Desmond robbed Lewis Brinson of a game-tying homer in the 8th inning, then the Rockies tacked on four runs in the ninth. Strong outing for Colorado P Marquez, who is very good away from Coors Field.

    1) Memo to directors of televised baseball games; on fly balls, show the outfielder, not the ball. The outfielder(s) will tell you where the ball is going. Showing the ball in the air is useless.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-30-2019 at 12:49 PM.

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    Saturday's Elite Eight Tips
    Joe Williams

    West Region Final (Anaheim, CA)

    No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (TBS, 6:09 PM EST)


    Opening Odds: Gonzaga -4½, 137

    -- Texas Tech (29-6 SU, 18-16 ATS) registered a 63-44 victory against Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen to advance to the Elite Eight. A No. 1 seed stands in the way of their first-ever trip to a Final Four for the Red Raiders.

    -- The Red Raiders have won each of their three NCAA Tournament games by at least 15 points, winning by an average of 18.0 points per game (PPG). The Red Raiders are 3-0 against the spread with the 'under' 3-0 in their three games so far during the Big Dance.

    -- Jarrett Culver continues to improve his NBA draft stock, as he dropped 22 points on 9-for-19 shooting across 32 minutes in the victory against the Wolverines. He misfired on all five of his 3-pointer attempts, but he was 4-for-4 at the charity stripe while adding four rebounds, three steals and just one turnover. Culver is averaging 22.3 PPG, 5.3 assists per game (APG) and 7.3 rebounds per game (RPG) through his three tournament games.

    -- The Red Raiders benefited by the fact the Wolverines went 1-for-19 (5.3 percent) from downtown, but the Texas Tech defense obviously had a lot to do with that poor shooting. They also finished 16-for-49 (32.7 percent) from the field, as the Red Raiders were relentless on the defensive end.

    -- Texas Tech ended up shooting 43.6 percent (24-for-55) from the field, including 6-for-19 (31.6 percent) from behind the perimeter while being outrebounded 33-27. The Red Raiders took decent care of the basketball, however, turning it over just seven total times to 14 for Michigan.

    -- The Red Raiders roll into this one 6-1 ATS over the past seven outings, and they're 5-1 ATS in the past six NCAA Tournament games. They're also 10-1 ATS in the past 11 against teams with a winning overall record.

    -- The 'under' has cashed in four straight NCAA Touranemnt games, and the under is 19-7 in the past 26 neutral-site battles while going 46-21-1 in the past 68 non-conference battles.

    -- Gonzaga (33-3 SU, 23-13 ATS) dropped Florida State by a 14-point margin in the third round, and they have won each of their first three NCAA Tournament games by 12 or more points. Expect the Bulldogs to get a much better test from the defensive-minded Red Raiders.

    -- The Bulldogs saw Brandon Clarke posted a double-double, as he registered 15 points with 12 rebounds, two assists and a steal with five blocked shots across 34 minutes on 6-for-15 shooting. The Zags had balanced scoring, as Rui Hachimura had 17 points, Zach Norvell Jr. had 14 points and Josh Perkins ended up with 14 points. Norvell Jr. led the way with four of the team's seven triples against the Seminoles.

    -- Clarke has been a blocked shots machine in the NCAA Tournament, registered 13 swats through three games, and he has at least one blocked shot in 16 consecutive games since Jan. 19 in a lopsided win at Portland.

    -- Gonzaga ended up No. 1 in the nation with 88.2 points per game, and they also led the country with a 52.8 field-goal percentage, and they're a good free-throw shooting team, too. Often overlooked is their defense, as they ranked sixth in opponent field-goal percentage at 38.7, and they were a solid 18th in 3-pointer percentage defense.

    -- The Bulldogs, one of three remaining No. 1 seeds after UNC got the gate on Friday, have covered in six of their past seven non-conference games. They're also 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 games against Big 12 foes.

    -- Gonzaga has cashed the under in six of their past seven non-conference tilts, while the under is 5-2 in the past seven NCAA Tournament battles. The under is also 11-5 in the past 16 following a cover in their previous outing.

    -- These teams last met on Nov. 23, 2007, with Gonzaga falling 73-63.

    West Region Final (Louisville, KY)

    No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 1 Virginia (TBS, 8:49 PM EST)


    Opening Odds: Virginia -4½, 126

    -- Purdue (26-9 SU, 20-14 ATS) bumped off the No. 2 seed Tennessee in an overtime thriller, 99-94, as Carsen Edwards continues to roll up big numbers. He went for 29 points, four rebounds, three assists and just one turnover with five 3-pointers, as his solid NCAA Tournament continues. He has scored at least 26 points in each of his three NCAA Tournament games after a disappointing loss in the first game of their Big Ten Tournament against Minnesota. He is also averaging 5.7 RPG during the tourney.

    -- The Boilermakers weren't a one-man band against the Vols, however. Ryam Cline went for 27 points, four assists and seven 3-pointers with a steal before fouling out in 29 minutes. Nojel Eastern and Matt Haarms each contributed 11 points, and Haarms was a defensive force with three blocked shots.

    -- Purdue was huge by hitting 15-of-31 shots from behind the arc, good for a 48.4 percent mark from downtown. And they barely won in overtime, as Tennessee was also 12-for-24 from down deep.

    -- The Boilermakers have cashed in four of the past five outings, and they're 9-4 ATS in their past 13 NCAA Tournament battles while going 41-19 over the past 60 non-conference battles.

    -- The over is 5-2 in the past seven games for Purdue, while going 40-17-1 in the past 58 neutral-site affairs. The over is also 5-0 in their past five following a straight-up win and 5-0 in their past five following a cover, too. The under is 13-6 in the past 19 against ACC foes, however.

    -- Virginia (32-3 SU, 24-11 ATS) is doing what they do best in the NCAA Tournament, locking it down on defense. They have averaged just 62.3 PPG through their three games in the Big Dance. They're still thriving, winning by an average of 10.3 PPG, holding the opposition to 52.0 PPG.

    -- In a defensive battle with a score reminiscent of the pre-shot clock era, UVA scratched out a 53-49 win against No. 11 Oregon on Thursday. Kyle Guy's shooting woes continued, as he was just 4-for-15 from the field, and 2-for-11 from behind the 3-point line, while ending up with 10 points and four rebounds in his 39 minutes. He is averaging just 7.3 PPG with 5.0 RPG so far in the Big Dance.

    -- There were a lot of ugly offensive numbers on Thursday, as UVA hit just 20-of-56 from the field (35.7 percent), yet they still won. All five starters missed more shots than they took, and only five players even attempted a shot. Mamadi Diakite was a defensive force, pulling down 11 rebounds with two steals and two blocked shots to lead the way.

    -- The Cavaliers check in 44-20-1 ATS in the past 65 games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five against the Big Ten. The Hoos are also 17-7 ATS in the past 24 against non-conference opponents. However, UVA is 1-6 ATS in the past seven NCAA Tournament battles.

    -- The under is 4-1 in the past five for Virginia, while going 4-1 in their past five NCAA Tournament games, too. The under is 5-1 in the past six neutral-site contests, while cashing in seven of the past eight non-conference tilts. The under is also 8-3 in the past 11 battles for Virginia against the Big Ten conference.

    -- This is the first meeting between these schools since Nov. 29, 2006 when the Boilermakers scratched out a 61-59 victory.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-30-2019 at 12:50 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Saturday, March 30



    Texas Tech @ Gonzaga

    Game 683-684
    March 30, 2019 @ 6:09 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas Tech
    78.803
    Gonzaga
    80.392
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Gonzaga
    by 1 1/2
    129
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Gonzaga
    by 4 1/2
    137
    Dunkel Pick:
    Texas Tech
    (+4 1/2); Under

    Purdue @ Virginia


    Game 681-682
    March 30, 2019 @ 8:49 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Purdue
    75.175
    Virginia
    77.209
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Virginia
    by 2
    129
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Virginia
    by 4 1/2
    126
    Dunkel Pick:
    Purdue
    (+4 1/2); Over





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Saturday, March 30


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    PURDUE (26 - 9) vs. VIRGINIA (32 - 3) - 3/30/2019, 8:49 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VIRGINIA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VIRGINIA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    VIRGINIA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    VIRGINIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    PURDUE is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    PURDUE is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in March games since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    TEXAS TECH (29 - 6) vs. GONZAGA (33 - 3) - 3/30/2019, 6:09 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TEXAS TECH is 139-185 ATS (-64.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.
    GONZAGA is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
    GONZAGA is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
    GONZAGA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GONZAGA is 160-117 ATS (+31.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
    GONZAGA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    GONZAGA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    TEXAS TECH is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Saturday, March 30


    Last six years, underdogs are 15-9 vs spread in regional finals.

    Over last 21 years, underdogs are 17-4 vs spread in West Region final, with 12 SU wins. Last five years nationally, #1-seeds are 4-9-1 vs spread in regional finals. Texas Tech won its first three tourney games, by 15-20-19 points; they’re 12-1 in last 13 games, somehow losing to a lousy West Virginia team in their first game of Big X tourney. Red Raiders’ defense has #2 eFG% in nation; they’re 15-1 outside Big X, with only loss to Duke. Gonzaga is 16-2 outside WCC, losing to North Carolina, Tennessee; they won first three tourney games, by 38-12-14 points. Zags have #1 eFG% offense in country, so good contrast here.

    Virginia allowed 55.3 ppg in winning first three tourney games, despite shooting 28.8% on arc in those games. Guy is 5-31 on arc in his last four games. Cavaliers are 15-0 outside the ACC this year; they beat Wisconsin by 7, Maryland by 5 in Big 14 games this year. Virginia plays slowest tempo games in country; despite recent slump, they’re 39.6% behind arc for the year. Purdue blew an 18-point 2nd half lead Thursday, won in OT; PG Edwards played whole 45:00, 7-footer Haarms played 36:00. Last five years, #1-seeds are 4-9-1 vs spread in regional finals; Virginia (-6.5) lost this game to a 10-seed three years ago.




    NCAAB

    Saturday, March 30


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Texas Tech Red Raiders
    Texas Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Texas Tech is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 6 games
    Gonzaga Bulldogs
    Gonzaga is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Gonzaga is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Gonzaga's last 6 games

    Purdue Boilermakers
    Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Purdue is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Purdue's last 7 games
    Virginia Cavaliers
    Virginia is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games
    Virginia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Virginia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 5 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    681Purdue -682 Virginia
    VIRGINIA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better in the current season.

    683Texas Tech -684 Gonzaga
    GONZAGA is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the current season.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-30-2019 at 12:51 PM.

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