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Thread: Friday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/29

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    Default Friday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/29

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, March 29

    Good Luck on day # 88 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    Opening Day payrolls in the major leagues:

    1) Red Sox $213,188,334

    2) Cubs $208,199,143

    3) Bronx $206,407,750

    4) Nationals $181,400,409

    5) Astros $177,443,329

    6) Phillies $172,374,782


    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Wrapping up a very busy Thursday…….

    13) Purdue 99, Tennessee 94 OT— Vols trailed by 12 at the half; they were 4-13 on the foul line in the first half, 7-9 in the second, 3-6 in OT. Purdue was 16-33 on the foul line.

    Second half of this game was outstanding, exciting basketball. Ryan Cline made 7-10 shots behind the arc; Tennessee was 12-24 on the arc, but made only one of last five. Wild game.

    2011 Florida Gators were last team to play consecutive OT games in NCAA’s; Gators beat BYU in the Sweet 16, then lost to Butler in the Elite 8. Same results for Tennessee here.

    12) Virginia 53, Oregon 49— Teams combined to go 18-58 on arc; Virginia led 30-22 at the half, but were down 3 with 5:30 left. Ducks scored only four points in last 5:44 of this game.

    Virginia’s Kyle Guy was shooting 43.9% on arc coming into this game, but he was 2-11 here, and is now 5 for his last 31 over the last four games. They’ll need more from him Saturday.

    11) Gonzaga 72, Florida State 58— Seminoles went 3-20 on the arc, were out-rebounded 45-36 and went down fairly meekly.

    10) Texas Tech 63, Michigan 44— Not even close; Red Raiders thrashed Michigan here, holding Wolverines to 1-19 shooting on arc (starters were 0-14). Tech won 12 of its last 13 games; their next game is Saturday against Gonzaga.

    9) Brewers 5, Cardinals 4— Lorenzo Cain ended the game by robbing Jose Martinez of a game-tying home run. Excellent catch.

    If you like to play over/under on first five innings of a game, Thursday’s results: 8-7 under.

    8) Dodgers 12, Diamondbacks 5— Dodgers hit eight home runs, a record for Opening Day.

    7) Coaching carousel:
    — Niagara hired Patrick Beilein (John’s son) as its coach.
    — Southern Illinois promoted assistant Bryan Mullins to head coach.
    — Appalachian State named Dustin Kerns coach.

    6) Astros 5, Rays 1— George Springer homered on Opening Day for the third year in a row.

    5) Teams with five different Opening Day starting pitchers the last five years:
    White Sox, Reds, Brewers, Padres.

    4) Tigers 2, Blue Jays 0 (10)— Excellent pitching duel between Zimmerman/Stroman was decided in extra innings when Christin Stewart homered for Detroit.

    3) Mets 2, Nationals 0— Robinson Cano drove in both runs to back up a brilliant six innings tossed by Jacob deGrom.

    2) Mariners 12, Red Sox 4— Seattle treated Chris Sale like a piñata, getting seven runs in three innings against him. Mariners won two games in Japan, are off to a 3-0 start.

    Edgar Martinez was in the ESPN booth for part of this game and Alex Rodriguez did a great job of picking his brain about hitting-related things. Obviously they played together for several years and A-Rod has a lot of respect for a guy who was a seriously tremendous hitter.

    1) Reds 5, Pirates 3— Derek Dietrich hit a pinch-hit, 3-run homer in the 7th inning, as Cincinnati came from behind and won its opener.

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    S16 - Friday's Early Tips
    Kevin Rogers

    East Region (Washington, DC)

    No. 3 LSU vs. No. 2 Michigan State (CBS, 7:09 PM EST)


    Opening Odds: Michigan State -6, 148

    Michigan State (30-6 SU, 25-11 ATS) put together the best ATS record in the country this season, aided by a 9-0 ATS run from late December through January. The Spartans overcame a three-game losing streak halfway through Big 10 play to win seven of their final eight regular season contests to capture the conference title. MSU grabbed the Big 10 tournament title with three wins in three days, capped off by edging rival Michigan in the championship game, 65-60.

    The Spartans trailed #15 seed Bradley in the opening round at halftime, 35-34 as 17 ½-point favorites, but bounced back to avoid the upset, 76-65. Cassius Winston led MSU with 26 points, while the Spartans overcame a 5-of-19 shooting performance from three-point range. Tom Izzo’s team advanced past the first round for the 12th time in 13 seasons, while not repeating the 2016 shocking defeat to Middle Tennessee State in the 2/15 matchup.

    Michigan State didn’t mess around in its second round matchup with conference rival Minnesota as the Spartans rolled the Golden Gophers, 70-50 to cash as 10-point favorites. The Spartans routed Minnesota for the second time this season as they jumped out to a 33-19 halftime lead, while limiting the Gophers to 30% shooting from the field and 2-of-22 from long distance. MSU advanced past the first weekend for the first time since reaching the Final Four in 2015.

    LSU (28-6 SU, 19-14-1 ATS) won its most regular season games since 2008-09, when the Tigers advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. The Tigers took home the SEC regular season title with a 16-2 record before getting bounced by Florida in the conference quarterfinals. LSU covered 14 of 18 regular season SEC games, while winning five conference contests in overtime.

    The Tigers squeezed by in each of their first two tournament contests in Jacksonville to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006, when they made it all the way to the Final Four. LSU built a 45-29 halftime edge over Yale in the first round before the Bulldogs rallied back to cover as seven-point underdogs in a 79-74 defeat. Skylar Mays led LSU with 19 points as the Tigers overcame a 4-of-17 shooting performance from three-point range and nine missed free throws.

    LSU had another close-shave in the second round as the Tigers slipped past Maryland, 69-67. For the second straight game, the Tigers started strong as they led the Terrapins by 15 points in the first half, but Maryland came back to grab a 57-55 advantage with less than six minutes remaining in regulation. After Maryland tied the game late on a three-pointer, LSU delivered the final blow on a Tremont Waters layup in the final seconds, but the Terps cashed as three-point underdogs.

    It’s been awhile since these teams met as Michigan State beat LSU, 87-71 in the 1979 Sweet 16. The Tigers have thrived in the underdog role this season by posting a 6-1-1 ATS record, while losing to Houston and Florida State. Michigan State has excelled as a single-digit favorite this season by going 13-2 SU/ATS in this role, but the Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA tournament contests.


    Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO)

    No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 1 North Carolina (TBS, 7:29 PM EST)


    Opening Odds: North Carolina -5 ½, 164 ½

    The third SEC team to take the court in the Sweet 16 is Auburn (28-9 SU, 19-16-1 ATS), who overcame a 2-4 start in SEC play to finish 11-7 in the league. The Tigers have heated up at the right time by winning 10 straight games since getting blown out at Kentucky, 80-53 on February 23. Auburn grabbed four wins in four days at the SEC tournament, capped off by an 84-64 rout of Tennessee in the championship, marking its second win over the Volunteers in an eight-day stretch.

    Bruce Pearl’s team seemed like a potential upset victim in many brackets in the 5/12 matchup against New Mexico State in the opening round of the tournament. The Tigers led the Aggies by 13 points with 7:10 remaining in regulation, but NMSU put together a furious rally to get within one point in the final seconds. However, the Aggies missed two of three free throws with one second remaining and Auburn escaped with a 78-77 victory. The Tigers failed to cover as 5 ½-point favorites, but managed to advance past the first round for the second straight season.

    Last season, Auburn was destroyed by Clemson in the second round by 31 points, but the Tigers were not going to be a one-and-done casualty for a second straight season. Auburn ripped up Kansas in the round of 32 as two-point favorites, 89-75 as the Tigers built a commanding 26-point cushion and never looked back. Bryce Brown paced Auburn with 25 points, including hitting seven three-pointers, while the Tigers shot 52% from the floor.

    The task won’t be easy for Auburn in the Sweet 16 as the Tigers draw a solid North Carolina (29-6 SU, 22-11-2 ATS) squad. The Tar Heels won 14 of their final 15 regular season contests, including a sweep of Duke, while covering 10 times. UNC had to settle for an at-large NCAA tournament bid after losing to Duke in the ACC semifinals, 74-73, but the Tar Heels picked up the cover as 4 ½-point underdogs.

    North Carolina failed to escape the first weekend in three of the previous six seasons, including suffering a 21-point loss to Texas A&M in last season’s second round. Prior to that quick exit, the Tar Heels reached the NCAA championship in 2016 and 2017, as Roy Williams’ club fell at the buzzer to Villanova, followed by a six-point triumph over Gonzaga for his third title since coming to Chapel Hill.

    The Tar Heels are in their eighth Sweet 16 under Williams when listed as a top seed as UNC made fast work of Iona in the first round, 88-73. UNC trailed at halftime, 38-33, but outscored the Gaels in the second half, 55-35, highlighted by 21 points from Cameron Johnson. The Tar Heels couldn’t manage the cover as hefty 24 ½-point underdogs, while the game barely finished UNDER the total of 166 ½.

    UNC got back on track against Washington in the second round with an 81-59 victory to cash as 11 ½-point favorites. Luke Maye and Nassar Little each posted 20-point performances for the Tar Heels, who improved to 12-6-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite. North Carolina cashed the UNDER for the fifth time in six games, while limiting an opponent to below 60 points for the fifth time this season.

    The Tar Heels own an impressive 13-1 record in the round of 16 dating back to 1993 with the only loss in this span coming to Wisconsin in 2015. North Carolina and Auburn are hooking up for the first time since the 1985 Southeast Regional Semifinal, won by the Tar Heels, 62-56.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-29-2019 at 11:26 AM.

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    S16 - Friday's Late Tips
    Tony Mejia

    East Region - Washington DC - Capital One Arena

    #4 Virginia Tech vs. #1 Duke - 9:39 PM EST - CBS


    Opening Odds: Duke -7.5, 144.5

    -- Duke (31-5 SU, 18-18 ATS) wouldn't be playing on Friday night had it not been for an amazing amount of luck that helped it avoid a monumental upset at the hands of UCF on Sunday. From calls that went their way to fouls they got away with to missed alley-oops and tip-ins that teased but didn't add points to the Knights' total, the Blue Devils got through a game where they didn't play well and avoided elimination. It's always better to be lucky than good, especially when you're really good.

    -- We'll see if the close call sparks the Blue Devils as they move from Columbia, S.C. to D.C., where they'll have plenty of support and a familiar opponent to focus on as they try to get to the Elite Eight for the second straight season, which is something Mike Krzyzewski hasn't accomplished since 1998-99. Those teams featured Elton Brand, Shane Battier, Trajan Langdon and William Avery, who while older formed a group similar to this one led by freshmen Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones.

    -- In order to advance, Duke will have to avenge a loss it suffered against Virginia Tech (26-8 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) on Feb. 26 in Blacksburg. Williamson wasn't available for that game due to a knee sprain caused by his shoe disaster, so the Blue Devils struggled to protect the paint and Kerry Blackshear had his way with Javin DeLaurier and Marques Bolden, finishing with 23 points and 10 boards. Although Williamson was sidelined, the Hokies still deserve major props for their victory since it came without injured point guard Justin Robinson, who has since returned in this NCAA Tournament after being out since Jan. 30. The senior had 13 points and looked sharp in this past weekend's win over Liberty, a game Virginia Tech would've struggled to survive without him.

    -- Versatile wing Ty Outlaw scored 11 points in that first meeting with Duke and should be in the starting lineup despite marijuana being found in his room by campus police while he was playing in last weekend's games in San Jose. After passing a drug test, Outlaw has been cleared to play since he won't be suspended. He hit a huge tie-breaking 3-pointer to help defeat the Blue Devils and will be invaluable in helping match up with their wings.

    -- The Blue Devils are 5-0 since Williamson returned in the ACC Tournament and has shot nearly 69 percent from the field and 47 percent from 3-point range in averaging 27.6 points and 8.8 rebounds. He stole the UCF game for Duke with his late heroics and will be tasked with keeping Blackshear from imposing his will inside while testing a thin Virginia Tech front line.

    -- Robinson has talked about the Hokies beating the Blue Devils in three of his four years on campus, so there won't be any trepidation over facing the nation's top-ranked team. Buzz Williams has one foot out the door since he's likely headed to fill the Texas A&M opening whenever Virginia Tech is eliminated, but they'll paitently wait for him as long as that takes so it shouldn't affect his veteran team.

    -- The 'under' has prevailed in the last four games involving the Hokies, who rank ninth in the country in scoring defense, surrendering 61.7 points per game. Duke ranks ninth nationally in scoring offense with an output of 83.4 points per game.

    -- Virginia Tech entered the NCAA Tournament with 60/1 odds to win it all, per the Westgate Superbook, which came down from 80/1 on Selection Sunday. The latest odds update has the Hokies at 40/1. The Blue Devils were the favorite (9/4) to win it all when the NCAAs began but their scare vs. UCF has moved them to 3/1.


    Midwest Region - Kansas City, MO - Sprint Center

    #3 Houston vs. #2 Kentucky - 9:57 PM EST - TNT


    Opening Odds: Kentucky -2.5, 135

    -- While Kentucky (29-6 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) can put together the fifth 30-win season of John Calipari's 10-year stint in Lexington, it's clear nothing is going to come easily after last weekend's close call against Wofford. The 'Cats surrendered an average of 50 points in their first two games in Jacksonville and will likely have to grind out at least one more victory given the opposition. Houston (33-3 SU, 22-12-2 ATS) ranks seventh in scoring defense (61.0 ppg). Kentucky allows 64.5 points per game, 27th in the country.

    -- Kentucky has been working without top forward P.J. Washington, who arrived in Kansas City wearing a cast on his left foot after spraining it in the SEC Tournament. Big Blue's leading scorer (14.8 ppg) and rebounder (7.6 rpg) did a few things in practice but is considered questionable to play and may end up getting an additional two days to see if he can't be more effective in a regional final. The problem of course would then become getting there without him. E.J. Montgomery, Keldon Johnson and Nick Richards have filled in next to Reid Travis. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said that he hadn't watched any tape of the 'Cats without Washington, expecting him to play.

    -- The Cougars are playing in their first Sweet 16 since 1984. The Hakeem Olajuwon-led version has some company now that this group has re-written the school-record for wins after surviving the Buckeyes 74-59.

    -- Houston's calling card is a defense that has held opponents to the lowest field-goal percentage defense (.366) and top 3-point percentage defense in the country (.278).

    -- Offensively, the Cougars are led by point guard Galen Robinson, who just set a school-record playing in his 135th career game. He leads the team in assists (4.9) and is one of those old-school point guards who controls pace at both ends, so his matchup with pesky freshman Ashton Hagans will also play a huge role. Corey Davis, Jr. is Houston's top scorer (17.2 ppg), but junior Armani Brooks (13.2 ppg) isn't far behind and can similarly light teams up from the perimeter.


    -- Houston was 40/1 to win the NCAA Tournament per Westgate when the tournament began and is now 30/1 after reaching the Sweet 16. The 'Cats were 12/1 when the tournament began and are now 16/1, so the books aren't all that confident in their ability to get through the weekend.

    -- The 'under' is on a 4-1 run in Houston games, part of a 9-4 stretch over the last 13. The 'under' is 16-5 over the past few months in UK games since Jan. 12 and has prevailed in six of the Wildcats' last eight contests.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-29-2019 at 11:28 AM.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-29-2019 at 11:30 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Friday, March 29



    CS-Bakersfield @ Green Bay

    Game 675-676
    March 29, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    CS-Bakersfield
    48.967
    Green Bay
    57.797
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 9
    151
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 6
    156
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-6); Under

    LSU @ Michigan State


    Game 667-668
    March 29, 2019 @ 7:09 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LSU
    72.251
    Michigan State
    75.090
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Michigan State
    by 3
    151
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Michigan State
    by 6
    149
    Dunkel Pick:
    LSU
    (+6); Over

    Auburn @ North Carolina


    Game 673-674
    March 29, 2019 @ 7:29 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Auburn
    74.595
    North Carolina
    81.929
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    North Carolina
    by 7 1/2
    169
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    North Carolina
    by 5
    162
    Dunkel Pick:
    North Carolina
    (-5); Over

    Virginia Tech @ Duke


    Game 669-670
    March 29, 2019 @ 9:39 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Virginia Tech
    72.326
    Duke
    76.077
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Duke
    by 4
    153
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Duke
    by 8
    144 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Virginia Tech
    (+8); Over

    Houston @ Kentucky


    Game 671-672
    March 29, 2019 @ 9:57 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    71.247
    Kentucky
    77.184
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kentucky
    by 6
    140
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kentucky
    by 2 1/2
    135
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kentucky
    (-2 1/2); Over





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Friday, March 29


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    LSU (28 - 6) vs. MICHIGAN ST (30 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 7:09 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 100-65 ATS (+28.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
    MICHIGAN ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    VIRGINIA TECH (26 - 8) vs. DUKE (31 - 5) - 3/29/2019, 9:39 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DUKE is 136-104 ATS (+21.6 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
    VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA TECH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    DUKE is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
    DUKE is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    VIRGINIA TECH is 3-1 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
    VIRGINIA TECH is 3-1 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HOUSTON (33 - 3) vs. KENTUCKY (29 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 9:59 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KENTUCKY is 94-65 ATS (+22.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
    KENTUCKY is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
    KENTUCKY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
    HOUSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    HOUSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    HOUSTON is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    AUBURN (28 - 9) vs. N CAROLINA (29 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 7:29 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    N CAROLINA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    N CAROLINA is 182-142 ATS (+25.8 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 181-142 ATS (+24.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 88-56 ATS (+26.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    N CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CS-BAKERSFIELD (18 - 15) at WI-GREEN BAY (19 - 16) - 3/29/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WI-GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
    CS-BAKERSFIELD is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    CS-BAKERSFIELD is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
    CS-BAKERSFIELD is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
    WI-GREEN BAY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games on Friday nights since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    667Lsu -668 Michigan St
    MICHIGAN ST is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) in the current season.

    669Virginia Tech -670 Duke
    VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

    671Houston -672 Kentucky
    KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons.

    673Auburn -674 N Carolina
    N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

    675Cs Bakersfield -676 Wi Green Bay
    CS-BAKERSFIELD is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1997.




    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, March 29


    This is Michigan State’s first Sweet 16 in four years; Izzo won four of his last six games in this round. Spartans are 11-2 out of conference this year; they’ve won seven in row, 12 of last 13 games. MSU is experience team #138 that won by 4 at Florida in December, in its only SEC game. LSU won its two games LW by total of 7 points; Tigers have an interim coach and #324 experience team that is loaded with talent. LSU won 21 of its last 24 games; they’re 5-2 in OT games this season. This is only 3rd NCAA tourney since 2007 for Tigers. Last 10 years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games.

    Since 2005, Duke is 4-5 SU in Sweet 16 games; they were favored in eight of those games. Duke lost 77-72 at Virginia Tech Feb 26 in game Zion Williamson missed; Hokies won six of their last eight games, are experience team #97 that plays pace #332- they gave up 52-58 points in their wins LW. Tech has its PG Robinson back; they’re shooting 39.5% on arc this season (#9). Duke survived nail biter with UCF Sunday; Blue Devils shot 10-25 on arc that day, after being #330 in country on arc before that. Duke won seven of eight games since the loss in Blacksburg. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round.

    Under Calipari, Kentucky is 7-1 in Sweet 16 games, with only loss to Kansas State LY. Wildcats won five of their last six games, barely surviving Wofford last game; Kentucky is 12-2 outside SEC (NC asked #106). Houston is 33-3 this season, 15-0 outside the AAC (NC sked #279). Cougars beat LSU by 6 in December, their only SEC game this year- they have best defensive eFG% in country. Sampson is in his first Sweet 16 since ’03, when he had Oklahoma in Final 4, Elite 8 in consecutive years. Last 10 years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games.

    North Carolina won 11 of its last 12 Sweet 16 games, with lone loss to Wisconsin four years ago; Tar Heels won 10 of their last 11 games- they scored 88-81 points in winning pair of games LW. UNC is 12-3 outside the ACC this year, losing to Kentucky on a neutral floor in December. Tar Heels play #6 pace in country. Auburn won its last 10 games after starting SEC play 7-7; Tigers are experience team #38 that forces turnovers 25.2% of time, most in country. Auburn is 0-2 vs ACC teams, losing by 6 to Duke, by 7 to NC State. Tigers are shooting 38.2% on arc (#16); they made 25-61 (40.9%) LW. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round.

    Friday’s other tournament game
    Cal-Bakersfield beat Fullerton/Southern Utah in this event, after losing nine of their previous ten games; Roadrunners are 8-5 outside the WAC- only two of their guys played more than 29:00 in their win at SUU Monday. Bakersfield is experience team #133 that plays pace #287; they play good defense but they foul a lot- opponents score 27.8% of their points on foul line, most in country. Green Bay won seven of its last ten games; they had a stress-free win over FIU Tuesday. Green Bay scored 102-98 points in its first tourney games. Phoenix is experience team #105 that plays pace #10.




    NCAAB

    Friday, March 29


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Cal State-Bakersfield @ Wisconsin-Green Bay
    Cal State-Bakersfield
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cal State-Bakersfield's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cal State-Bakersfield's last 5 games
    Wisconsin-Green Bay
    Wisconsin-Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Wisconsin-Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

    LSU @ Michigan State
    LSU
    LSU is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LSU's last 7 games
    Michigan State
    Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Michigan State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games

    Auburn @ North Carolina
    Auburn
    Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Auburn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    North Carolina
    North Carolina is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
    North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

    Virginia Tech @ Duke
    Virginia Tech
    Virginia Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
    Duke
    Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Duke is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing Virginia Tech

    Houston @ Kentucky
    Houston
    Houston is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Kentucky
    Kentucky is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-29-2019 at 11:31 AM.

  7. #7
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    Fading the public still the way to go this March Madness

    FSU, UT, UM, and UO all drew 60% or more of bet percentage for Sweet 16, and finished 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS Thursday.

    For NCAA Tournament, most popular bets (drawing 60%+ of bet count) are 10-15 SU / 9-16 ATS (36%).
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-29-2019 at 11:32 AM.

  8. #8
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    On Day 1 of the Sweet 16 faves went 1-3 ATS and Unders went 3-1.

    Updated NCAA Tournament March Madness betting stats through Day 5:

    Favorites: 39-13 Straight Up & 24-28 Against The Spread
    Over/Under: 25-26-1


    NIT

    Favorites: 19-9 SU & 12-16 ATS
    O/U: 14-14

    CIT

    Favorites: 11-9 SU & 8-12 ATS
    O/U: 10-10-1

    CBI

    Favorites: 13-1 SU & 7-7 ATS
    O/U: 9-5

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