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Thread: Thursday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/28

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    Default Thursday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/28

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, March 28

    Good Luck on day # 87 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Odds to win the college basketball national title:

    2-1— Duke

    7-2— Gonzaga, Virginia

    4-1— North Carolina

    10-1— Michigan

    12-1— Michigan State

    18-1— Kentucky, Tennessee


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Happy Opening Day, everyone!!!!

    13) So far this spring. UNLV fired Marvin Menzies and Vanderbilt fired Bryce Drew, both after their third season at that school, after seasons where their best player didn’t play after Christmas. Here are the details:

    — Menzies was 48-52 in three years at UNLV, 23-31 in Mountain West.
    — Drew was 40-59 in three years at Vanderbilt, 16-38 in SEC.

    By way of comparison, here is how another coach did in his first three years at his current job:

    — Unnamed coach: 38-47 at School A, 13-29 in conference games.

    In other words, if Duke had hired Mike Krzyzewski three years ago, he’d be fired by now.

    12) A person who has money to burn bet $500 on the Baltimore Orioles to win the World Series this year at 1,000-1 odds. Orioles were 47-115 last year, so good luck with that.

    11) How is it Opening Day and Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are still free agents?

    10) Coaching carousel:
    — Alabama hired hoop coach Nate Oats, who 13 days ago signed an extension with Buffalo.
    — Stetson hired former UCF head coach Donnie Jones.
    — UNLV hired South Dakota State coach TJ Otzenberger.
    — Jackrabbits then replaced Otzenberger with assistant coach Eric Henderson
    — San Francisco promoted assistant Todd Golden to replace Kyle Smith as HC.

    9) Alabama guards John Petty, Kira Lewis, Jr. and Dazon Ingram all announced that they’re transferring out of Alabama’s program; this was before the Crimson Tide hired Oats.

    8) Eight different major league teams used a 4-man outfield at least once LY, all against left-handed hitters. Hitters that saw it the most? Lucas Duda and Joey Gallo (7 games). Overall, hitters were 10-37 (.270) when the defense had four OF’s.

    7) Last year, 42 different major league players played 5+ different positions.

    6) Random golf stat: 2018 European Ryder Cup golf team went 11-1 Thursday in the Match Play tournament in Texas. The guys on the American team went 4-5-2 (Rickie Fowler isn’t playing this week).

    5) Teams with best win %age in Sweet 16 games (minimum 12 games):
    — Michigan 13-3, last in 2018
    — Oklahoma State 11-3, last in 2005
    — North Carolina 27-8, last in 2017

    — Kentucky 36-12, last in 2-18

    4) Charlotte Hornets were 2-0 against the Spurs this season, first time they swept the season series with San Antonio since 1996-97.

    3) Oakland A’s traded minor league IF Jesus Lopez, international signing bonus pool space to Toronto for 1B/DH Kendrys Morales.

    2) Fernando Tatis Jr. will be 20 years, 85 days old on Opening Day; if he plays, he will be the youngest player to play on Opening Day since Adrian Beltre in 1999.

    1) Today is Opening Day in baseball, always a day full of optimism- if you can’t be optimistic when you’re 0-0, when can you be? Not every team has realistic hopes of making the playoffs this year, but you never know. At this time last year, I had zero hope of the A’s making the playoffs, but they wound up winning 97 games!!! Enjoy the season.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:37 AM.

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    Betting favorites won every single game straight up in the Round of 32 (11-5 ATS).

    Updated NCAA Tournament betting stats through Day 4:
    Favorites: 37-11 Straight Up & 23-25 Against The Spread
    Over/Under: 24-23-1

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:11 AM.

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    S16 - Thursday's Early Tips
    Kevin Rogers

    West Region (Anaheim, CA)

    No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (CBS, 7:09 PM EST)


    Opening Odds: Gonzaga -7 ½, 146 ½

    It’s rare to see two teams hook up in the Sweet 16 in back-to-back seasons. It’s even rarer to witness that matchup in a location one hour away from the previous meeting as Florida State knocked off Gonzaga, 75-60 as a six-point underdog at Staples Center in Los Angeles. Now, the venue moves to the Honda Center in Anaheim as the Bulldogs try to get revenge and avoid being the first top seed to lose in this year’s Big Dance.

    Florida State (29-7 SU, 17-18-1 ATS) fell short to Duke in the ACC championship game, but still closed out the season by winning 14 of 16 games to grab a fourth seed in the NCAA tournament. The Seminoles beat the likes of Virginia Tech twice, Virginia, Louisville, and Syracuse during this stretch, but compiled a 4-6 ATS record in the final 10 games prior to the tournament.

    The Seminoles reached the Sweet 16 for the third time under head coach Leonard Hamilton as FSU knocked out 13th-seeded Vermont and upstart Murray State, who was listed as a 12-seed. The ‘Noles held off the Catamounts in the opening round, 76-69 as FSU failed to cash as nine-point favorites. The two teams were tied at the half before the Seminoles outscored UVM, 49-42 in the second half, as Mfiondu Kabengele scored 21 points off the bench for Florida State.

    In the second round game against Murray State, many people kept an eye on potential top-three lottery pick Ja Morant, who was coming off a triple-double in a blowout win over Marquette. However, FSU ran past Murray State, 90-62 to easily cover as 4 ½-point favorites, in spite of Morant posting a game-high 28 points. The Seminoles played each of the first two games without senior forward Phil Cofer (7.4 ppg), who missed the opener with a foot injury, but then sat out the Murray State victory following the death of his father. Cofer will not travel with the team to Anaheim, as FSU seeks its second straight Elite 8 appearance.

    Gonzaga (32-3 SU, 22-13 ATS) cruised through West Coast Conference play with a perfect 16-0 record, while being listed as a double-digit favorite 14 times (7-7 ATS). The Bulldogs were on the verge of another WCC tournament title before getting tripped up by Saint Mary’s in the championship as 15-point favorites in a 60-47 setback. Despite the poor showing, the Bulldogs locked up a top seed in the tournament for the second time in three seasons.

    In the opening round game against Fairleigh Dickinson, the Bulldogs barely broke a sweat in an 87-59 blowout to cash as 28 ½-point favorites. Gonzaga jumped out to a 53-17 halftime advantage and never looked back to capture its 11th consecutive NCAA tournament first round victory. Two days later, Gonzaga put together another strong opening 20 minutes as the Bulldogs led Baylor, 39-23 at halftime before eliminating the Bears, 83-71. Baylor covered as 14 ½-point underdogs, but the Bears couldn’t stop Gonzaga’s Brandon Clarke, who hit 15-of-18 shots from the floor and scored 36 points.

    The Bulldogs own a 3-1 SU/ATS record as a single-digit favorite this season with the lone loss coming to Tennessee in early December. The Seminoles have covered in five of eight opportunities as an underdog this season, while FSU has posted a 4-1-1 ATS record in its last six NCAA tournament contests since 2018.


    South Region (Louisville, KY)

    No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 2 Tennessee (TBS, 7:29 PM EST)


    Opening Odds: Tennessee -1 ½, 146 ½

    Tennessee (31-5 SU, 17-17-1 ATS) spent most of conference season as the top-ranked team in the country, but road losses to Kentucky and LSU in February knocked the Volunteers out of the #1 spot. The Vols failed to capture the regular season SEC title in spite of a 15-3 record, while getting blown out by Auburn in the conference championship game by 20 points.

    Rick Barnes’ club began SEC play by covering seven of its first 10 games, but the Volunteers went 2-6 ATS down the stretch. Tennessee cashed in its first two SEC tournament victories over Mississippi State and Kentucky before losing to Auburn as 4 ½-point favorites. Things did not ease up in the tournament for Tennessee, who escaped with their lives in both wins.

    The Volunteers built what seemed to be a comfortable 12-point halftime lead over Colgate in the first round, but the Patriot League champions rallied back to grab a 52-50 advantage with 11:37 minutes remaining. However, Tennessee went back in front and eventually pulled away for a 77-70 win. The Vols failed to cash as hefty 17 ½-point favorites, but advanced past the first round for the second straight season.

    Last season, Tennessee was shocked by eventual Final Four participant Loyola-Chicago in the round of 32 in a 63-62 defeat as a number three seed. The Volunteers wanted to avoid that same fate as a two-seed this time around as Tennessee jumped out to a seemingly insurmountable 25-point cushion against Iowa. The Hawkeyes rallied to beat Cincinnati in the first round and pulled off another amazing comeback by forcing overtime after trailing, 44-19. Tennessee advanced in spite of melting down by bouncing Iowa, 83-77, but failed again to cover, this time as 7 ½-point favorites.

    Purdue (25-9 SU, 19-14-1 ATS) as looked as impressive as any team so far after closing the regular season by winning 14 of 16 games. The Boilermakers lasted only one game in the Big 10 tournament after getting stunned by Minnesota as 9 ½-point favorites in a 75-73 defeat, but Purdue is still going in the Big Dance while the Gophers are sitting at home.

    Matt Painter’s squad took care of a tough Old Dominion team in the first round, 61-48 as 12 ½-point favorites. The Boilermakers’ defense limited the Monarchs to 27% shooting from the floor, while All-Big 10 first teamer Carsen Edwards scored 26 points. Purdue put together another strong effort in knocking out defending champion Villanova in the second round, 87-61 as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Boilermakers led by 19 points at the half. Edwards put together his best game as a Boilermaker with 42 points, while drilling nine three-pointers.

    Purdue has reached the Sweet 16 for the third straight season, but couldn’t go further than that after losing to Kansas in 2017 and Texas Tech in 2018. Tennessee beat Purdue at the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis during Thanksgiving week of 2017 in overtime, 78-75 as 8 ½-point underdogs. In the only two meetings between these schools (including the one in 2009), the games have been decided by a total of four points.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:12 AM.

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    S16 - Thursday's Late Tips
    Joe Williams

    West Region Semifinal (Anaheim, CA)

    No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Michigan (CBS, 9:39 PM EST)


    Opening Odds: Michigan -2, 126

    -- Texas Tech (28-6 SU, 17-16 ATS) has been on fire against the number after some mid-season difficulties which saw them go on a three-game losing streak from Jan. 16-22, and through a stretch where the Red Raiders went 2-11-1 against the spread (ATS) in a 14-game stretch from Dec. 1 through Feb. 2. Since taking it on the chin in Lawrence against Kansas on Groundhog Dog, the Red Raiders are 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS, including 2-0 ATS so far during the Big Dance.

    -- The Red Raiders powered past Northern Kentucky in the opening round by a 72-57 count, cashing as 13-point favorite. Jarrett Culver dropped in 29 points (10-for-17 FG, 3-5 3PT, 6-for-10 FT), while Tariq Owens added 12 and David Moretti went for 10 points and five boards.

    -- Texas Tech then proceeded to thump a very good Buffalo side, a MAC team which spent a majority of the season in The AP Top 25. That game was a much more balanced effort, as five players were in double figures for the Red Raiders. Culver continues to improve his NBA stock, posting 16 point sand 10 rebounds with three blocked shots over 32 minutes in that one. Norense Odianse came up with with 14 points and 15 rebounds, too, setting a school record for boards in an NCAA Tournament game while also posting a personal best in scoring.

    -- The only thing that didn't go well for Texas Tech in the game vs. Buffalo was their perimeter shooting, a dismal 5-for-16 (31.2 percent), and 19-for-25 (76.0 percent) from the free-throw stripe. Those numbers need to be markedly better to topple Michigan.

    -- Things are trending in the right direction for Texas Tech against the number. They're 10-2 ATS in the past 12 overall, and 4-1 ATS in the past five NCAA Tournament contests. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four matchups against Big Ten sides, while cashing in eight consecutive games against teams with a winning overal mark.

    -- The 'under' has hit in both NCAA Tournament games for TTU, and is 9-3 across their past 12 tourney games overall. The under is also 6-2 in their past eight neutral-site games, while going 45-21-1 in the past 67 non-conference tilts.

    -- Overall, Texas Tech ranks third in the country in scoring defense, yielding just 59.2 points per game (PPG). It will be all hands on deck for Chris Beard's bunch trying to sack a Big Ten team in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season. They dispatched Purdue a season ago.

    -- Michigan (30-6 SU, 21-15 ATS) has won their first two NCAA Tournament games by an average of 17.0 PPG, topping Montana 74-55 in the opener, and beating Florida 64-49 in a defensive battle. You can expect a much closer contest in this one.

    -- The Red Raiders are known for their defense, but the Wolverines aren't too bad, either. In fact, they were No. 2 team in the nation, just one spot ahead of Texas Tech. They held Montana to 20-for-60 (33.3 percent) shooting in the first game. On offense, Charles Matthews dropped in 22 points while posting a double-double with 10 rebounds. Zavier Simpson was able to dish out 10 assists in that one, and every starter recorded at least one steal. Oddly enough, Michigan managed just one blocked shot against the undersized Griz.

    -- Ignas Brazdeikis wasn't a huge factor in each of the two games, averaging just 4.5 PPG. He was a dismal 2-for-8 shooting, including 1-for-4 from behind the arc. Jordan Poole stepped up his game with 19 points, while Matthews had another respectable game with nine points, seven rebounds and two blocked shots. The Wolverines were much better from downtown, hitting 7-for-21 (33.3 percent), while shooting 42.1 percent from the floor overall. They locked down Florida's offense, limiting them to 34.5 percent shooting. That will be the biggest key, if they can shut down Culver and make someone else beat them.

    -- Michigan enters 4-1-1 ATS over the past six NCAA Tournament outings, while cashing in nine of their past 12 against Big 12 opponents. They're also an impressive 36-15-2 ATS in the past 53 against teams with a winning overall record and 42-19-4 ATS in the past 65 outings played on a neutral floor.

    -- The 'under' is 4-1 for Michigan across the past five, while going 5-1 in the past six neutral-site battles. The under is also 4-1 in their past five games played in the Big Dance.


    South Region Semifinal (Louisville, KY)

    No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 1 Virginia (TBS, 9:59 PM EST)


    Opening Odds: Virginia -8½, 119½

    -- Oregon (25-12 SU, 22-15 ATS) looked dead in the water after three consecutive losses from Feb. 16-23, including a 17-point drubbing from USC and a seven-point loss against a very poor UCLA side. The Ducks sat just 15-12, and it was looking dubious that they would garner attention from the NIT, let alone an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Things changed in the Pac-12 Tournament, as they were on a four-day run to take the title and punch their ticket.

    -- They have routed two very good teams to set up a date with the No. 1 seed Cavaliers, pounding Wisconsin 72-54 while taking care of a 30-win UC Irvine team last round.

    -- Payton Pritchard registered a game-high 19 points against Wisconsin while adding eight assists, two steals and two 3-pointers. It wasn't all good, as he turned the ball over seven times, while the rest of his team committed just four turnovers. He'll need to curb that if the Ducks wish to upend the Hoos. Louis King was 6-for-10 from the floor, posting 17 points, while Paul White added 14.

    -- In the Irvine game, Pritchard did cut his turnovers down to just one, while adding 18 points and seven assists while dropping in two more triples. King, unfazed by some name changes from the Anteaters coach, chimed in with 16 points, four boards and just one turnovers while raining in four triples. Kenny Wooten provided the tertiary scoring with 11 points and eight rebounds. Ehab Amin was huge off the pine, hitting 4-for-4 from downtown to end up with 12 points in 26 minutes. The Ducks were a blistering 13-for-25 (52.0 percent) on treys, and they'll likely need to be just as hot to send the No. 1 seed packing.

    -- Oregon is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five NCAA Tournament games, 7-0 ATS in the past seven neutral-site battles and 6-2 ATS in the past eight outside of conference. They're also 10-1 ATS in the past 11 overall, and 8-0 ATS in the past eight against teams with a winning record.

    -- It's all about the under for the Ducks lately. The under is 15-5-1 in the past 21 overall, while going 6-2-1 in the past nine non-conference battles. The under is also 7-3-1 in the past 11 neutral-site battles.

    -- Virginia (31-3 SU, 24-10 ATS) is the only No. 1 seed to ever fall to a No. 16 in the NCAA Tournament, as UMBC stunned them last year. They're probably sick of hearing it. They slipped behind Gardner-Webb at halftime in their first game, and the murmurs were starting again. However, since that second half against the Bulldogs, UVA has been playing like a No. 1 seed.

    -- Virgina ended up pounding Gardner-Webb 71-56, led by De'Andre Hunter's 23 points. He was an efficient 9-for-16 from the field, and UVA shot 51.9 percent overall from the floor in the opening game. Mamadi Diakite was good for 17 points and nine rebounds, and he too was very efficient, going 8-for-10 from the floor. Ty Jerome filled up the stat sheet with 13 points, six assists, three rebounds and three steals while dropping in two triples, too. Kyle Guy struggled with just 2-for-8 shooting, but he wasn't needed.

    -- Guy was even worse in the Oklahoma game, going 2-for-15 from the field, including 0-for-10 from behind the arc, ending up with just four points. However, he did have a nice behind the back pass to make the highlight reel. Diakite, Jerome and Hunter each picked him up, posting 10 or more points, and Diakite again missed just two field goals while adding three blocked shots. Jerome had sticky fingers, too, posting three thefts while Hunter and Jerome each posted a pair of 3-pointers.

    -- UVA enters the game 1-5 ATS in the past six NCAA Tournament battles, but they're 13-6 ATS in the past 19 against winning teams and 4-1 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts.

    -- The under has been the rule for Virginia lately, going 4-1 in their past five neutral-site battles, 6-1 in their past seven outside of the conference and 4-0 in the past four against the Pac-12.

    -- Will the No. 1 seed march on, or will Oregon assume the role of Cinderella and head to the Elite Eight? It's an interesting game to say the least. These teams last met Dec. 18, 2011, and it was Virginia coming away with a 13-point wn, although not much can be gleaned from that result for this current battle.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:13 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Thursday, March 28



    Florida State @ Gonzaga

    Game 655-656
    March 28, 2019 @ 7:09 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Florida State
    76.117
    Gonzaga
    79.312
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Gonzaga
    by 3
    152
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Gonzaga
    by 7
    147 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Florida State
    (+7); Over

    Purdue @ Tennessee

    Game 651-652
    March 28, 2019 @ 7:29 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Purdue
    71.274
    Tennessee
    75.941
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 4 1/2
    141
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 1
    146 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (-1); Under

    Texas Tech @ Michigan

    Game 657-658
    March 28, 2019 @ 9:39 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas Tech
    76.752
    Michigan
    75.978
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Texas Tech
    by 1
    131
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Michigan
    by 2
    126 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Texas Tech
    (+2); Over

    Oregon @ Virginia

    Game 653-654
    March 28, 2019 @ 9:59 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oregon
    69.640
    Virginia
    79.881
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Virginia
    by 10
    115
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Virginia
    by 7 1/2
    119
    Dunkel Pick:
    Virginia
    (-7 1/2); Under



    Friday, March 29


    LSU @ Michigan State

    Game 667-668
    March 29, 2019 @ 7:09 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LSU
    72.251
    Michigan State
    75.090
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Michigan State
    by 3
    151
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Michigan State
    by 6
    149
    Dunkel Pick:
    LSU
    (+6); Over

    Auburn @ North Carolina

    Game 673-674
    March 29, 2019 @ 7:29 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Auburn
    74.595
    North Carolina
    81.929
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    North Carolina
    by 7 1/2
    169
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    North Carolina
    by 5
    162
    Dunkel Pick:
    North Carolina
    (-5); Over

    Virginia Tech @ Duke

    Game 669-670
    March 29, 2019 @ 9:39 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Virginia Tech
    72.326
    Duke
    76.077
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Duke
    by 4
    153
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Duke
    by 8
    144 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Virginia Tech
    (+8); Over

    Houston @ Kentucky

    Game 671-672
    March 29, 2019 @ 9:59 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    71247
    Kentucky
    77.184
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kentucky
    by 6
    140
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kentucky
    by 2 1/2
    135
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kentucky
    (-2 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:13 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, March 28


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    PURDUE (25 - 9) vs. TENNESSEE (31 - 5) - 3/28/2019, 7:29 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    PURDUE is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    PURDUE is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    PURDUE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
    TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OREGON (25 - 12) vs. VIRGINIA (31 - 3) - 3/28/2019, 9:59 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VIRGINIA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VIRGINIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    VIRGINIA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    VIRGINIA is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    VIRGINIA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
    OREGON is 62-45 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    OREGON is 62-45 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
    OREGON is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in March games this season.
    OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
    OREGON is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
    OREGON is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    FLORIDA ST (29 - 7) at GONZAGA (32 - 3) - 3/28/2019, 7:09 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GONZAGA is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
    GONZAGA is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
    GONZAGA is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GONZAGA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all home games this season.
    GONZAGA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
    GONZAGA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game this season.
    GONZAGA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.
    GONZAGA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    FLORIDA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus GONZAGA over the last 3 seasons
    FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against GONZAGA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    TEXAS TECH (28 - 6) at MICHIGAN (30 - 6) - 3/28/2019, 9:39 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TEXAS TECH is 138-185 ATS (-65.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) in road games since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
    MICHIGAN is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, March 29

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    LSU (28 - 6) vs. MICHIGAN ST (30 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 7:09 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 100-65 ATS (+28.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
    MICHIGAN ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    VIRGINIA TECH (26 - 8) vs. DUKE (31 - 5) - 3/29/2019, 9:39 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DUKE is 136-104 ATS (+21.6 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
    VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA TECH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    DUKE is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
    DUKE is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    VIRGINIA TECH is 3-1 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
    VIRGINIA TECH is 3-1 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    HOUSTON (33 - 3) vs. KENTUCKY (29 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 9:59 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KENTUCKY is 94-65 ATS (+22.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
    KENTUCKY is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
    KENTUCKY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
    HOUSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    HOUSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    HOUSTON is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    AUBURN (28 - 9) vs. N CAROLINA (29 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 7:29 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    N CAROLINA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    N CAROLINA is 182-142 ATS (+25.8 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 181-142 ATS (+24.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 88-56 ATS (+26.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    N CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:14 AM.

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    651Purdue -652 Tennessee
    TENNESSEE is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

    653Oregon -654 Virginia
    OREGON is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in March games in the current season.

    655Florida St -656 Gonzaga
    GONZAGA is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the current season.

    657Texas Tech -658 Michigan
    TEXAS TECH is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread in the current season.

    659Loyola Marymount -660 S Florida
    S FLORIDA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games in the current season.

    663Hampton -664 New Jersey Tech
    HAMPTON is 25-12 ATS (11.8 Units) vs. winning teams since 1997.

    665Texas Southern -666 La Monroe
    TEXAS SOUTHERN is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% after 15+ games since 1997.

    667Lsu -668 Michigan St
    MICHIGAN ST is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) in the current season.

    669Virginia Tech -670 Duke
    VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

    671Houston -672 Kentucky
    KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons.

    673Auburn -674 N Carolina
    N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

    675Cs Bakersfield -676 Wi Green Bay
    CS-BAKERSFIELD is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1997.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, March 28



    Thursday's NCAA games
    Last 10 years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games. In his last 11 NCAA tournament games, Rick Barnes’ teams are 1-9-1 against the spread; since 2002, his teams are 3-2 SU in this round- this is his first Sweet 16 game since 2008. Tennessee is 14-1 outside the SEC this year, with only loss to Kansas; they blew a 44-19 lead Sunday and needed OT to beat Iowa. Vols are experience team #52 (#2 in MC) that shoots 55.6% inside arc (#21 in eFG%). Purdue won its two games LW by 13-26 points; Boilers are 9-4 outside Big 14- they get 39% of their points behind arc (#25). Purdue lost in this round the last two years; under Painter, they’re 0-4 in Sweet 16 games. Boilers are experience team #205.

    Oregon is first #12-seed in Sweet 16 in eight years; since 2001, 12-seeds are 2-7 vs spread in this round. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round. Ducks won last 10 games, holding last three foes under 55 points, as Wooten has emerged as an elite rim protector. Oregon is 11-4 outside Pac-12; only one of their last ten wins was by less than 10 points. Duck opponents are shooting 29.1% on the arc; Oregon forces turnovers 21% of the time. Virginia plays slowest tempo in country; they’re 14-0 outside ACC. Cavaliers make 40.1% of their 3’s; their only losses this year are to Duke (2), Florida St. Since 2002, both coaches are 1-1 in Sweet 16 games. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-4 in Sweet 16 games. Since ’13, Pac-12 teams are 3-8 in this round.

    Florida State hammered Gonzaga 75-60 in this round LY in LA, holding Zags to 33.9% from floor; Gonzaga has been eliminated by an ACC team in each of last four NCAA’s. Seminoles are 16-2 in their last 18 games; they’re 14-1 outside ACC, with only loss to Villanova. Gonzaga scored 87-83 points in winning games LW; Zags are 32-3, splitting pair vs UNC/Duke in their two ACC games this season. Gonzaga is 5-3 vs top 50 teams this season, 3-2 if you take out WCC rival Saint Mary’s. Since 2006, Gonzaga is 2-4 in Sweet 16, going 2-2 in this round the last four years. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-4 in Sweet 16 games. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round. FSU beat teams from America East, OVC last weekend; a step up here.

    Michigan won four of its last five games, allowing 55-49 points in its wins LW; Wolverines are 14-0 outside Big 14 this year- last five years, they’re 3-1 in Sweet 16 games, with three of those four games decided by 1 or 2 points. Michigan plays a slow (#317) pace; they’re #3 in country at protecting the ball, their defense eFG% is #6 in country, their subs plays 4th-least minutes in country. Texas Tech beat Nebraska by 18 in their only Big 14 game this year; they beat teams from Horizon, MAC last week. Red Raiders are experience team #103 that won 11 of its last 12 games; they force turnovers 23.1% of time, so it’ll be interesting to see if they turn Michigan over. Last 10 years, dogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games.

    Thursday’s other tournament games
    Long trip east for LMU squad that ripped Brown by 18 Monday; eight Lions played 15:00+. LMU won five of its last six games; they’re #164 experience team that plays pace #346- they try to play like Virginia. Lions are 12-2 outside WCC; they won their last four true road games. South Florida is 12-2 outside the AAC; they’re experience team #328 that turns ball over 22.6% of time (#336). Bulls are 3-7 in last ten D-I games, beating Stony Brook/Utah Valley to get here.

    Hampton won seven of its last eight games, playing three guys 35:00 in its win Tuesday; they’re experience team #8 that lost six of its last nine true road games. Pirates are 4-8 outside Big South, with three non-D-I wins; they play pace #36, have a poor eFG% (#251). NJIT hasn’t played in 10 days; they’re 13-3 outside A-Sun (NC sked #276). Highlanders are experience team #314 (#34 in MC) that that gets 21.6% of its points at foul line (#46).

    Texas Southern is 5-8 outside SWAC; they played three starters 34:00+ in wild (83 possessions) 94-85 win at Rio Grande Valley Monday. Tigers are #5 experience team that plays pace #3; they won 15 of last 17 games after starting season 6-11. UL-Monroe is 2-0 vs SWAC teams, beating Jackson State by 9, Grambling by 5 this year; Warhawks won four of last five games- they have not played in a week. ULM is experience team #26 that shoots 40.1% on the arc (#7).

    Friday’s NCAA games
    This is Michigan State’s first Sweet 16 in four years; Izzo won four of his last six games in this round. Spartans are 11-2 out of conference this year; they’ve won seven in row, 12 of last 13 games. MSU is experience team #138 that won by 4 at Florida in December, in its only SEC game. LSU won its two games LW by total of 7 points; Tigers have an interim coach and #324 experience team that is loaded with talent. LSU won 21 of its last 24 games; they’re 5-2 in OT games this season. This is only 3rd NCAA tourney since 2007 for Tigers. Last 10 years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games.

    Since 2005, Duke is 4-5 SU in Sweet 16 games; they were favored in eight of those games. Duke lost 77-72 at Virginia Tech Feb 26 in game Zion Williamson missed; Hokies won six of their last eight games, are experience team #97 that plays pace #332- they gave up 52-58 points in their wins LW. Tech has its PG Robinson back; they’re shooting 39.5% on arc this season (#9). Duke survived nail biter with UCF Sunday; Blue Devils shot 10-25 on arc that day, after being #330 in country on arc before that. Duke won seven of eight games since the loss in Blacksburg. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round.

    Under Calipari, Kentucky is 7-1 in Sweet 16 games, with only loss to Kansas State LY. Wildcats won five of their last six games, barely surviving Wofford last game; Kentucky is 12-2 outside SEC (NC asked #106). Houston is 33-3 this season, 15-0 outside the AAC (NC sked #279). Cougars beat LSU by 6 in December, their only SEC game this year- they have best defensive eFG% in country. Sampson is in his first Sweet 16 since ’03, when he had Oklahoma in Final 4, Elite 8 in consecutive years. Last 10 years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games.

    North Carolina won 11 of its last 12 Sweet 16 games, with lone loss to Wisconsin four years ago; Tar Heels won 10 of their last 11 games- they scored 88-81 points in winning pair of games LW. UNC is 12-3 outside the ACC this year, losing to Kentucky on a neutral floor in December. Tar Heels play #6 pace in country. Auburn won its last 10 games after starting SEC play 7-7; Tigers are experience team #38 that forces turnovers 25.2% of time, most in country. Auburn is 0-2 vs ACC teams, losing by 6 to Duke, by 7 to NC State. Tigers are shooting 38.2% on arc (#16); they made 25-61 (40.9%) LW. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round.
    Last edited by Udog; 03-28-2019 at 07:12 AM.

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    NCAAB

    Thursday, March 28


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Loyola Marymount @ South Florida
    Loyola Marymount
    Loyola Marymount is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Loyola Marymount is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    South Florida
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games

    Hampton @ NJIT
    Hampton
    No trends to report
    NJIT
    No trends to report

    Florida State @ Gonzaga
    Florida State
    Florida State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    Gonzaga
    Gonzaga is 23-1 SU in its last 24 games

    Purdue @ Tennessee
    Purdue
    Purdue is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
    Purdue is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games
    Tennessee is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games

    Texas Southern @ Louisiana-Monroe
    Texas Southern
    No trends to report
    Louisiana-Monroe
    Louisiana-Monroe is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 7 games at home

    Texas Tech @ Michigan
    Texas Tech
    Texas Tech is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
    Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Michigan
    Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    Oregon @ Virginia
    Oregon
    Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Virginia
    Virginia is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
    Virginia is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:01 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, March 28


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT (22 - 11) at S FLORIDA (20 - 13) - 3/28/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 50-74 ATS (-31.4 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
    S FLORIDA is 125-159 ATS (-49.9 Units) in all home games since 1997.
    S FLORIDA is 125-159 ATS (-49.9 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
    S FLORIDA is 79-111 ATS (-43.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
    S FLORIDA is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    HAMPTON (17 - 16) at NEW JERSEY TECH (22 - 12) - 3/28/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW JERSEY TECH is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
    NEW JERSEY TECH is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
    HAMPTON is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
    HAMPTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HAMPTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    TEXAS SOUTHERN (23 - 13) at LA-MONROE (19 - 15) - 3/28/2019, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA-MONROE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    LA-MONROE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
    LA-MONROE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
    TEXAS SOUTHERN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
    TEXAS SOUTHERN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    TEXAS SOUTHERN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:02 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Thursday, March 28



    Loyola Marymount @ South Florida

    Game 659-660
    March 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Loyola Marymount
    54.240
    South Florida
    62.705
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    South Florida
    by 8 1/2
    126
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    South Florida
    by 4 1/2
    132
    Dunkel Pick:
    South Florida
    (-4 1/2); Under

    Hampton @ NJ Tech

    Game 663-664
    March 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hampton
    53.052
    NJ Tech
    49.503
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hampton
    by 3 1/2
    157
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NJ Tech
    by 3
    154
    Dunkel Pick:
    Hampton
    (+3); Over

    Texas Southern @ LA-Monroe

    Game 665-666
    March 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas Southern
    50.890
    LA-Monroe
    55.411
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA-Monroe
    by 4 1/2
    182
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA-Monroe
    by 8
    171
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA-Monroe
    (-8); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:02 PM.

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    Thursday's S16 Betting Notes

    PURDUE vs TENNESSEE (-1.5 / 146.5) – Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Louisville, KY

    PURDUE
    – The Boilers beat Old Dominion by 13 and Villanova by 26 to get here. In their completely unexpected (by us anyway) blowout win over Nova, the Boilers shot 54% overall from the field and made 16 of their 30 three pointers. After struggling for 4 consecutive games (just 27% shooting), Carsen Edwards was red hot scoring 42 points on 12 of 21 shooting. He took 41% of Purdue’s shots in the two first round games as he continues to be a high volume shooter. For the season, Edwards has taken 656 of Purdue’s 1,920 total shots (over 34% of the attempts). Purdue shoots a ton of 3’s and 39% of their scoring on the year comes from beyond the arc (25thmost nationally). Tennessee isn’t great at defending the arc so that might be a good match up for the Boilermakers. PU is one of the most efficient offenses in the nation (5thin adjusted efficiency) and they are very good on the offensive boards gathering 35% of their own misses (18thin the country). They are solid defensively as well holding 9 of their last 13 opponents to 65 points or fewer. They are 10-7 SU this year vs NCAA tournament teams. Their one downfall in our opinion will be if Edwards has an off shooting night. They rely so heavily on one guy.

    TENNESSEE – UT needs to learn to hold onto leads. They got here by beating Colgate by 7 (blew a 16 point lead) and Iowa by 6 in OT (blew a 25 point lead). The Vols failed to cover either game and both went over the total. They shot 47% combined in those 2 wins and held their opponents to 41%. The problem with UT’s defense this year has been slowing down good 3 point shooting teams. They allow 35% from deep which is 209thnationally. Both Colgate & Iowa launched a bunch of 3’s and combined to make 22 of 50 (44%). Purdue will do the same and if UT can slow them down from deep, they will win this game. They are MUCH more balanced than the Boilers with 5 guys averaging 10+ PPG. They are just as efficient offensively (3rdnationally in adjusted offensive efficiency) but they do it much differently than Purdue. The Vols do not rely heavily on 3-point shooting scoring almost 56% of their points inside the arc (25thmost nationally). If this is a tight game that comes down to FT’s, Tennessee hits almost 77% as a team. They played 16 games this year vs NCAA tourney teams and they were 11-5 SU in those games. No real advantage with the venue here as Knoxville is just 250 miles away from Louisville (4 hour drive) and West Lafayette is just 185 miles away (3 hour drive).

    OREGON vs VIRGINIA (-8.5 / 119) – Thursday at 10:00 p.m. ET at Louisville, KY

    OREGON
    – The Ducks just might be the hottest team in the tourney right now. In late February they were just 15-12 overall and 2 games below .500 in the Pac 12. They have since won 10 straight games with 8 of those wins coming by more than 10 points. They got to this point by beating Wisconsin by 18 and UC Irvine by 19. The Ducks defense has been great down the stretch holding 9 of their last 10 opponents to 61 or less with 8 of those failing to top 54 points! They basically start a very good PG, Peyton Pritchard, and then four athletic 6’9 guys, 2 of whom are solid 3-point shooters (White & King). Oregon is a slow paced team (328thin tempo) that is fine playing in the half court. Defensively they’ve been mainly a zone team during their sizzling run. They are not a great offensive team ranking 74thin offensive efficiency which is the lowest rating remaining in the field. They shot well in their first 2 games hitting 51% of their shots combined, however they now face a terrific defense so we’ll see if that continues. They were just 3-5 SU during the regular season vs tourney teams and they are now 5-5 after their two wins last weekend. The Ducks come in having covered 10 of their last 11 games and for this season they are 24-12-1 to the UNDER. The last 8 times a #1 seed (UVA) has faced a #12 seed (Oregon), the #1 seed is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16 points. Seven of those eight wins have coming by more than 10 points with the only exception coming in 2013 when this Oregon team (12 seed at the time) lost to Louisville (1 seed at the time) by 8 points.

    VIRGINIA – The Cavs had a bit of a scare in their opener vs Gardner Webb as they were trailing at half. We’re pretty sure they had some visions of last year’s game when they lost to UMBC as a #1 seed when they entered the locker room at the break. UVA took control in the 2ndhalf and went on to an easy 71-56 win. They followed that up with a 12-point win over Oklahoma on Sunday. They’ve held their opponents to just 38% shooting and 55 PPG on the season. Their first round opponents in the Big Dance fell very close to those numbers as Virginia limited Gardner Webb & Oklahoma to 53.5 PPG on 40% shooting. We make mention of Oregon coming in red hot but Virginia is right there with them winning 11 of their last 12. UVA’s 3 losses this season have come at the hands of Duke (twice) and Florida State. They are dead last in the nation in tempo so we can obviously expect a slow paced game here. Virginia is top notch on both ends of the court ranking 2ndnationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3rdin adjusted defensive efficiency. Defensively they have held 9 of their last 11 opponents to 58 points or fewer. UVA has played 15 NCAA tourney teams this year and they are 12-3 SU in those games. #1 seeds (UVA) have been a very good money maker in the Sweet 16 as of late going 10-1-1 ATS from 2015 – 2018.

    FLORIDA STATE vs GONZAGA (-7.5 / 147) – Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Anaheim, CA

    FLORIDA STATE
    – FSU comes into the Sweet 16 having topped Vermont by 7 points (FSU led by 16 with 1:10 remaining) and then destroying Murray State 90-62 on Saturday. Their power rating (Ken Pom) has the Noles ranked as the 5thbest team in the ACC behind UVA, Duke, UNC, and Va Tech. They completely controlled the glass in their first two NCAA games outrebounding Vermont & Murray State by a combined 25 boards. After Murray State shot 54% in their opener vs Marquette, the Seminoles held them to just 32% in their 28-point win. FSU doesn’t mind getting up and down the court (122ndin tempo) and Gonzaga loves to run so this could be a faster paced match up. They are a deep team with 11 guys averaging double digit minutes on the season. FSU is also a team that can be tough to guard because they don’t necessarily have a so called go to guy and 7 of their players average between 6 PPG and 13 PPG. They get to the FT line a lot with 21% of their points coming from the stripe (57thmost nationally) however Gonzaga doesn’t commit a lot of fouls. The Noles are not a great outside shooting team but they are very efficient overall on offense (28th). They were 11-5 SU this season vs NCAA tournament teams.

    GONZAGA – The Zags beat up on Farleigh Dickinson (won by 38) and Baylor (won by 12) to get here. They are 23-1 SU their last 24 games with their only loss during that stretch coming vs St Mary’s in the WCC Championship game. Amazingly, all 23 of those wins have come by double digits! Their average margin of victory over that 24 game span in a ridiculous +27.7 per game. Their weak conference schedule needs to be factored into that as only one other team from the WCC made the Dance and that was St Mary’s who promptly lost in the first round to Villanova. That’s the struggle handicapping Gonzaga each year in the tourney as once they exit non-conference play and get into the WCC, they really are never challenged. They did lose to both Tennessee & UNC in the non-conference slate but they also beat Duke. They played only 10 NCAA tourney teams this year and the Zags were 6-4 SU on those contests. They are great offensively ranking #1 in adjusted efficiency averaging 1.25 PPP. They average 89 PPG on the season and they’ve been held under 80 points just 7 times in 35 games. They’ve also scored at least 100 points on 7 occasions this season. They don’t shoot a lot of 3’s and they don’t need to as the rank #1 in the nation in 2-point FG% hitting over 62% inside the arc. Defensively they are very good as well ranking 16thin adjusted efficiency. Not many, if any, weaknesses for the Zags with the exception of competition played. They have played a grand total of 4 games vs top 50 teams since December 15th. Venue edge to Gonzaga as they are playing on the west coast. Since 2003 there have been ten #1 (Gonzaga) vs #4 (FSU) match ups where the #1 seed was favored by more than 6-points. The #1 seed is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in those games.

    TEXAS TECH vs MICHIGAN (-2 /126) – Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET at Anaheim, CA

    TEXAS TECH – Tech rolled up 2 easy wins to get to the Sweet 16 beating Northern Kentucky by 15 and Buffalo by 20. They are a slow paced team (232nd) that ranks #1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and #2 in eFG% defense. They thrive on creating turnovers (23% defensive turnover rate – 10th nationally) but will probably struggle with that here as Michigan turns the ball over very little. They won 9 straight games to end the regular season before being upset in the Big 12 tourney by West Virginia as a 13-point favorite. They have lost only games this season but four of those losses have come by more than 10 points. They held their first 2 opponents in the Big Dance to 56 PPG on 38% shooting. They held Buffalo, who was averaging 85 PPG, to just 58 points on Sunday. At one point they held the Bulls without a field goal for 18 straight possessions! The only negative defensively is they do foul quite a bit. Nearly 23% of their opponents points have come from the FT line which is 23rd most nationally. The Red Raiders offense is a bit behind the defense ranking 35th in adjusted efficiency which is the 2nd worst number remaining in the NCAA tourney ahead of only Oregon. Tech is 9-5 SU in their 14 games vs tourney teams.

    MICHIGAN – The Wolverines cruised in their opening round games topping Montana by 19 and Florida by 15. Their defense carried them as well holding those two opponents to 52 PPG on just 34% shooting. They trailed for a grand total of 3:00 minutes in their first two games combined. Michigan ranks #2 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency so we have #1 vs #2 here in that category which explains why the total is set at just 126. This team doesn’t turn the ball over (just 13.7% - 3rd least nationally) which should take away one aspect Tech thrives on and that is creating turnovers. They are solid offensively but not a great shooting team ranking 113th in eFG% ahead of only LSU & FSU remaining in this tourney. While Tech coach Chris Beard has shown he is a very good head man, Michigan’s head coach John Beilein is a fantastic 20-7 his last 27 NCAA tourney games. Michigan has played a whopping 18 games vs tourney teams and they are 13-5 SU in those games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-28-2019 at 01:03 PM.

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