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Thread: Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/27

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    Default Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/27

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, March 27

    Good Luck on day # 86 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    Odds to win the college basketball national title:

    2-1— Duke

    7-2— Gonzaga, Virginia

    4-1— North Carolina

    10-1— Michigan

    12-1— Michigan State

    18-1— Kentucky, Tennessee


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) Bad news for the Arizona Diamondbacks; Steven Souza Jr. has an ACL tear, LCL tear, partial PCL tear, and posterior lateral capsule tear in his left knee. He is done for this season.

    12) Milwaukee’s Mike Moustakas led off the bottom of the 2nd vs Toronto Tuesday by bunting to third base for an easy hit against the shift. What pitcher will be the first one to snap over giving up hits to batters who are smart enough to just bunt the ball where no one is?

    You know some pitchers have to hate the shift, especially when it doesn’t help them.

    11) Dodgers shifted against Angels’ 2B David Fletcher early Monday night, but he just poked a grounder thru the right side for an easy hit. Fletcher has no power, but he does control the bat well; it is bleeping stupid to over-shift against him. This is analytics gone wild.

    10) Random stat of the day; in his last 11 NCAA tournament games, Rick Barnes’ teams are 1-9-1 against the spread. Since 2002, Barnes is 3-2 SU in Sweet 16 games; his last one was in 2008.

    9) Bruce Pearl’s comment about his Auburn team playing North Carolina this week:

    “Take the over.”

    Over in this game is 164, which is pretty steep.

    8) Coaching carousel:
    — BYU told coach Dave Rose to take a hike after 14 years with the Cougars.
    — Arkansas fired coach Mike Anderson after eight years.
    — Nebraska fired Tim Miles; his likely replacement is Fred Hoiberg.
    — Washington State hired San Francisco coach Kyle Smith.
    — Cal Poly hired former Riverside CC coach/Fullerton assistant John Smith.
    — UMKC hired former Wright State coach Billy Donlon.
    — Mercer is going to hire Purdue assistant Greg Gary.
    — Former Tex-Arlington coach Scott Cross is back in Sun Belt; he is the new coach at Troy.

    7) That means four of 14 SEC coaching jobs are open; considering that seven SEC teams made the NCAA’s, then South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri are only teams not to make NCAA’s that didn’t fire their coach. Georgia’s coach has been there one year, Missouri’s two years.

    6) One thing that bugs me about the NBA; why does the team’s star always HAVE TO take the last shot? Portland had the ball at the end of the first OT Monday night in a tie game and the Nets double-teamed Damian Lillard and he never passed the ball, taking a 35-footer. Why?

    5) Watched Dodgers-Angels exhibition game Monday night and it is weird watching the Angels and seeing someone other than Mike Scioscia managing the team.

    4) Guy in Ohio named Gregg Nigl has a perfect bracket thru the first two rounds, so he deserves to be congratulated. Well done sir!!!

    3) Jason deGrom signed a 5-year, $137,5M extension with the Mets.

    2) Portland C Jusuf Nurkic suffered a compound fractures to the tibia and fibula of his lower left leg in the second OT of the Nets-Blazers game Monday night. The injury was so gruesome, guys on the Nets who were near Nurkic when he fell ran away from the area.

    1) Some day soon, when they make a movie about Michael Avenatti and the last year or so of his life, it is going to be a weird and fast-moving story. Avenatti has been all over TV for the last year or so, but now he is in big legal trouble in California, charged with wire fraud and extortion.

    Just seems like sometimes people get famous quickly and the fame is addictive and it makes them do nutty things. Being obscure isn’t such a bad thing.

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    Wednesday's Tip Sheet
    David Schwab

    Wednesday night’s college basketball slate features a pair of quarterfinal pairings in the NIT starting with No. 4 Colorado squaring off against No. 2 Texas in a 8:00 p.m. ET tip in Austin. The other matchup at 9:00 p.m. pits No. 5 Lipscomb on the road against North Carolina State on the other side of the bracket in Raleigh.

    National Invitation Tournament (NIT)

    No. 4 Colorado Buffaloes at No. 2 Texas Longhorns (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET)


    Opening Odds: Texas -6 ½, Total 139

    Betting Matchup

    The Buffaloes will be on short rest for Wednesday’s contest coming off Monday night’s 76-60 victory against Norfolk State as heavy 14-point favorites. They started this tournament with a 78-73 victory against Dayton as 4 ½-point home favorites. Colorado has been able to cover in six of its last eight games, but it slides to 3-6 against the spread in its last nine road games. The total stayed UNDER 146 ½ points in Monday night’s win and it has stayed UNDER in seven of the Buffaloes’ last nine games.

    Forward Evan Battey picked the prefect time to record his first career double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds against Norfolk State. Sophomore guard Tyler Bey has been Colorado’s leading scorer all season long with 13.4 points a game and he added 17 points and nine rebounds to the winning cause.

    Texas made a quick exit in this year’s Big 12 Tournament with a 65-57 loss to Kansas as a 3 ½-point underdog. This capped off a SU 1-5 slide in its previous six games. With new life in the NIT, the Longhorns beat South Dakota State 79-73 last Tuesday before squeezing past Xavier 78-76 in overtime on Sunday. They failed to cover as home favorites in both games as part of a 0-5 record ATS in their last five games. The total went OVER 139 ½ points in Sunday’s victory after staying UNDER in their previous four outings.

    Kerwin Roach II had the hot hand for Texas against Xavier with 21 points along with eight rebounds and six assists. The senior guard leads the Longhorns in scoring this season with 14.8 points a game. Dylan Osetkowski put up career-high 26 points in the NIT opener against South Dakota State.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Buffaloes are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Big 12 and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in 19 of their last 26 road games.

    -- The Longhorns have failed to cover in four of their last five nonconference games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming off an ATS loss. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games against the Pac-12.

    -- Colorado is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the Longhorns and it is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against Texas.


    No. 5 Lipscomb Bison at No. 2 North Carolina State Wolfpack (ESPNU, 9:00 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: NC State -3 ½, 163

    Betting Matchup

    The Bison have won six of their last seven games SU with the only loss coming against Liberty 74-68 as 6 ½-point favorites in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. They knocked off Davidson 89-81 as 2 ½-point road underdogs in the opening round of the NIT ahead of a 86-69 romp over UNC Greensboro on Saturday as slight 1 ½-point road underdogs. Lipscomb has been able to cover the closing spread in three of its last four games after failing to cover in its previous seven contests.

    Rob Marberry has made his presence known in this tournament with 17 points against Davidson followed by a 24-point effort in Saturday’s win. Senior guard Garrison Mathews is the team’s leading scorer this season with 20.0 points and he added 23 points to Saturday’s winning cause.

    NC State was left home for the Big Dance after going an even 9-9 SU in ACC play. It bowed out of the conference tournament with a 76-56 loss to Virginia as an 11 ½-point underdog. The Wolfpack are making the most of their time in the NIT with SU victories against Hofstra and Harvard at home. They failed to cover as nine-point favorites for each contest as part of a 2-4 record ATS in their last six games. The total went OVER 152 ½-points in Sunday’s 78-77 win against Harvard after it had stayed UNDER in NC State’s previous six contests.

    Senior guard Torin Dorn has led the Wolfpack in scoring this season with 13.4 PPG and he opened this tournament with 19 points against Hofstra. Guard CJ Bryce had the hot hand on Sunday with 16 points while going 6-for-12 from the field.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Bison have gone 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 nonconference games, but they fall to 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 road games.

    -- The Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games coming off a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games at home and in four of their last five games played on a Wednesday.

    -- In one previous meeting in 2008, NC State came out on top 78-58 with no posted betting lines.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-27-2019 at 01:08 PM.

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-27-2019 at 01:09 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, March 27



    Coastal Carolina @ DePaul

    Game 635-636
    March 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Coastal Carolina
    54.579
    DePaul
    64.869
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    DePaul
    by 10 1/2
    153
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    DePaul
    by 7 1/2
    163
    Dunkel Pick:
    DePaul
    (-7 1/2); Under

    Lipscomb @ NC State


    Game 625-626
    March 27, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Lipscomb
    63.164
    NC State
    65.159
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NC State
    by 2
    167
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NC State
    by 3 1/2
    163
    Dunkel Pick:
    Lipscomb
    (+3 1/2); Over

    Colorado @ Texas


    Game 627-628
    March 27, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Colorado
    64.726
    Texas
    66.125
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Texas
    by 1 1/2
    130
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Texas
    by 5 1/2
    139
    Dunkel Pick:
    Colorado
    (+5 1/2); Under





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, March 27


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LIPSCOMB (27 - 7) at NC STATE (24 - 11) - 3/27/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NC STATE is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
    LIPSCOMB is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games since 1997.
    LIPSCOMB is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
    LIPSCOMB is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    LIPSCOMB is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
    LIPSCOMB is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
    LIPSCOMB is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    LIPSCOMB is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
    LIPSCOMB is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
    NC STATE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COLORADO (23 - 12) at TEXAS (18 - 16) - 3/27/2019, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    COLORADO is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
    COLORADO is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    COLORADO is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    COLORADO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    COLORADO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
    COLORADO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    TEXAS is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
    TEXAS is 46-71 ATS (-32.1 Units) in March games since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    COLORADO is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
    COLORADO is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COASTAL CAROLINA (17 - 16) at DEPAUL (17 - 15) - 3/27/2019, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    COASTAL CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
    COASTAL CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
    DEPAUL is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
    COASTAL CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    COASTAL CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, March 27


    Wednesday’s other tournament games
    Lipscomb lost by 4 at Louisville, 17 at Clemson in December; they’re 11-4 outside A-Sun, with best non-conference win at TCU. Bisons won their last two games at Davidson, NC-Greensboro; this would be three in row in the Tar Heel State. Lipscomb is experience team #48 with #20 eFG% in country. NC State won our of its last five games, with couple wins by one point; they’re 14-1 outside the ACC. Wolfpack is experience team #156 that forces turnovers 21.8% of the time. State won five of its last six home games.

    Colorado won 12 of its last 15 games; this is Buffs’ first true road game since Feb 23, but no one has been going to Texas’ NIT games. Colorado is 11-3 outside Pac-12; they’re experience team #319 that is 3-7 in its last ten true road games. Texas won its first two NIT games by total of 8 points, after finishing regular season 2-6; Longhorns are 10-4 outside Big X, they’re experience team #281 that plays pace #322. These schools were Big 12 rivals until 2011.

    Coastal Carolina won 109-91 in West Virginia Monday, making 13-28 on arc; they scored 1.43 ppp, a really high number. Chanticleers are 5-3 in their last eight games; they’re 7-6 outside Sun Belt, 2-5 on road, winning at Campbell/WVU. Coastal is experience team #197 whose bench plays minutes #37. DePaul scored 100-97 points in winning its last two games; they’re 10-3 outside Big East, 9-14 vs teams ranked in top 200. Blue Demons played two guys 38/39:00 in their win over Longwood Monday.




    625Lipscomb -626 Nc State
    LIPSCOMB is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games vs. winning teams in the current season.

    625Lipscomb -626 Nc State
    LIPSCOMB is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the current season.

    627Colorado -628 Texas
    COLORADO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

    635Coastal Carolina -636 Depaul
    DEPAUL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games in the current season.




    NCAAB

    Wednesday, March 27


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Coastal Carolina @ DePaul
    Coastal Carolina
    No trends to report
    DePaul
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of DePaul's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of DePaul's last 6 games at home

    Lipscomb @ North Carolina State
    Lipscomb
    No trends to report
    North Carolina State
    North Carolina State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina State's last 7 games

    Colorado @ Texas
    Colorado
    Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Texas
    Colorado is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    Texas
    Texas is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Colorado
    Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-27-2019 at 01:10 PM.

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    Betting favorites won every single game straight up in the Round of 32 (11-5 ATS).

    Updated NCAA Tournament betting stats through Day 4:
    Favorites: 37-11 Straight Up & 23-25 Against The Spread
    Over/Under: 24-23-1
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-27-2019 at 01:11 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Thursday, March 28



    Florida State @ Gonzaga

    Game 655-656
    March 28, 2019 @ 7:09 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Florida State
    76.117
    Gonzaga
    79.312
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Gonzaga
    by 3
    152
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Gonzaga
    by 7
    147 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Florida State
    (+7); Over

    Purdue @ Tennessee

    Game 651-652
    March 28, 2019 @ 7:29 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Purdue
    71.274
    Tennessee
    75.941
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 4 1/2
    141
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 1
    146 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (-1); Under

    Texas Tech @ Michigan

    Game 657-658
    March 28, 2019 @ 9:39 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas Tech
    76.752
    Michigan
    75.978
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Texas Tech
    by 1
    131
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Michigan
    by 2
    126 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Texas Tech
    (+2); Over

    Oregon @ Virginia

    Game 653-654
    March 28, 2019 @ 9:59 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oregon
    69.640
    Virginia
    79.881
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Virginia
    by 10
    115
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Virginia
    by 7 1/2
    119
    Dunkel Pick:
    Virginia
    (-7 1/2); Under



    Friday, March 29


    LSU @ Michigan State

    Game 667-668
    March 29, 2019 @ 7:09 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LSU
    72.251
    Michigan State
    75.090
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Michigan State
    by 3
    151
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Michigan State
    by 6
    149
    Dunkel Pick:
    LSU
    (+6); Over

    Auburn @ North Carolina

    Game 673-674
    March 29, 2019 @ 7:29 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Auburn
    74.595
    North Carolina
    81.929
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    North Carolina
    by 7 1/2
    169
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    North Carolina
    by 5
    162
    Dunkel Pick:
    North Carolina
    (-5); Over

    Virginia Tech @ Duke

    Game 669-670
    March 29, 2019 @ 9:39 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Virginia Tech
    72.326
    Duke
    76.077
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Duke
    by 4
    153
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Duke
    by 8
    144 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Virginia Tech
    (+8); Over

    Houston @ Kentucky

    Game 671-672
    March 29, 2019 @ 9:59 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    71247
    Kentucky
    77.184
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kentucky
    by 6
    140
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kentucky
    by 2 1/2
    135
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kentucky
    (-2 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-27-2019 at 01:12 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, March 28


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PURDUE (25 - 9) vs. TENNESSEE (31 - 5) - 3/28/2019, 7:29 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    PURDUE is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    PURDUE is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    PURDUE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
    TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    OREGON (25 - 12) vs. VIRGINIA (31 - 3) - 3/28/2019, 9:59 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VIRGINIA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VIRGINIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    VIRGINIA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    VIRGINIA is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    VIRGINIA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
    OREGON is 62-45 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    OREGON is 62-45 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
    OREGON is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in March games this season.
    OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
    OREGON is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
    OREGON is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    FLORIDA ST (29 - 7) at GONZAGA (32 - 3) - 3/28/2019, 7:09 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GONZAGA is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
    GONZAGA is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
    GONZAGA is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GONZAGA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all home games this season.
    GONZAGA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
    GONZAGA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game this season.
    GONZAGA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.
    GONZAGA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    FLORIDA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus GONZAGA over the last 3 seasons
    FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against GONZAGA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    TEXAS TECH (28 - 6) at MICHIGAN (30 - 6) - 3/28/2019, 9:39 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TEXAS TECH is 138-185 ATS (-65.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) in road games since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
    TEXAS TECH is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
    MICHIGAN is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, March 29

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    LSU (28 - 6) vs. MICHIGAN ST (30 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 7:09 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 100-65 ATS (+28.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
    MICHIGAN ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    VIRGINIA TECH (26 - 8) vs. DUKE (31 - 5) - 3/29/2019, 9:39 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DUKE is 136-104 ATS (+21.6 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
    VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA TECH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    DUKE is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
    DUKE is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    VIRGINIA TECH is 3-1 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
    VIRGINIA TECH is 3-1 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    HOUSTON (33 - 3) vs. KENTUCKY (29 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 9:59 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KENTUCKY is 94-65 ATS (+22.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
    KENTUCKY is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
    KENTUCKY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
    HOUSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    HOUSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    HOUSTON is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    AUBURN (28 - 9) vs. N CAROLINA (29 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 7:29 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    N CAROLINA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    N CAROLINA is 182-142 ATS (+25.8 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 181-142 ATS (+24.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 88-56 ATS (+26.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
    N CAROLINA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    N CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
    N CAROLINA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-27-2019 at 01:12 PM.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    78,057
    Credits
    242,023

    Default

    651Purdue -652 Tennessee
    TENNESSEE is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

    653Oregon -654 Virginia
    OREGON is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in March games in the current season.

    655Florida St -656 Gonzaga
    GONZAGA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games in the current season.

    657Texas Tech -658 Michigan
    TEXAS TECH is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread in the current season.

    667Lsu -668 Michigan St
    MICHIGAN ST is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) in the current season.

    669Virginia Tech -670 Duke
    VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

    671Houston -672 Kentucky
    KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons.

    673Auburn -674 N Carolina
    N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    78,057
    Credits
    242,023

    Default

    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, March 28


    Last 10 years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games. In his last 11 NCAA tournament games, Rick Barnes’ teams are 1-9-1 against the spread; since 2002, his teams are 3-2 SU in this round- this is his first Sweet 16 game since 2008. Tennessee is 14-1 outside the SEC this year, with only loss to Kansas; they blew a 44-19 lead Sunday and needed OT to beat Iowa. Vols are experience team #52 (#2 in MC) that shoots 55.6% inside arc (#21 in eFG%). Purdue won its two games LW by 13-26 points; Boilers are 9-4 outside Big 14- they get 39% of their points behind arc (#25). Purdue lost in this round the last two years; under Painter, they’re 0-4 in Sweet 16 games. Boilers are experience team #205.

    Oregon is first #12-seed in Sweet 16 in eight years; since 2001, 12-seeds are 2-7 vs spread in this round. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round. Ducks won last 10 games, holding last three foes under 55 points, as Wooten has emerged as an elite rim protector. Oregon is 11-4 outside Pac-12; only one of their last ten wins was by less than 10 points. Duck opponents are shooting 29.1% on the arc; Oregon forces turnovers 21% of the time. Virginia plays slowest tempo in country; they’re 14-0 outside ACC. Cavaliers make 40.1% of their 3’s; their only losses this year are to Duke (2), Florida St. Since 2002, both coaches are 1-1 in Sweet 16 games. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-4 in Sweet 16 games. Since ’13, Pac-12 teams are 3-8 in this round.

    Florida State hammered Gonzaga 75-60 in this round LY in LA, holding Zags to 33.9% from floor; Gonzaga has been eliminated by an ACC team in each of last four NCAA’s. Seminoles are 16-2 in their last 18 games; they’re 14-1 outside ACC, with only loss to Villanova. Gonzaga scored 87-83 points in winning games LW; Zags are 32-3, splitting pair vs UNC/Duke in their two ACC games this season. Gonzaga is 5-3 vs top 50 teams this season, 3-2 if you take out WCC rival Saint Mary’s. Since 2006, Gonzaga is 2-4 in Sweet 16, going 2-2 in this round the last four years. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-4 in Sweet 16 games. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round. FSU beat teams from America East, OVC last weekend; a step up here.

    Michigan won four of its last five games, allowing 55-49 points in its wins LW; Wolverines are 14-0 outside Big 14 this year- last five years, they’re 3-1 in Sweet 16 games, with three of those four games decided by 1 or 2 points. Michigan plays a slow (#317) pace; they’re #3 in country at protecting the ball, their defense eFG% is #6 in country, their subs plays 4th-least minutes in country. Texas Tech beat Nebraska by 18 in their only Big 14 game this year; they beat teams from Horizon, MAC last week. Red Raiders are experience team #103 that won 11 of its last 12 games; they force turnovers 23.1% of time, so it’ll be interesting to see if they turn Michigan over. Last 10 years, dogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-27-2019 at 01:14 PM.

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