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Thread: Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/17

  1. #1
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    Default Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/17

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, March 17

    Good Luck on day # 76 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Some trends to consider when filling out your brackets:

    — Six of last nine Final Fours had only one #1 seed in it.

    — That said, last four national games had six #1 seeds, a 2-seed and a 3-seed.

    — Last time a #4-seed made the Final Four; 2013.

    — Five of last six years, a team seeded #7 or worse made the Final Four.

    — Since 2002, #2-seeds are 64-4 SU in first round; last six years, #3-seeds are 19-5.

    — Last two years, Big East teams are only 7-6 in the first round.


    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

    13) I’m watching the Seton Hall-Marquette game Friday night, and it dawned on me; half the league has to travel halfway cross the country for the conference tournament every year, while the other half of the league? Their fans can drive or take the train to Madison Square Garden.

    This is the sixth year of the “new” Big East; during that time, the midwestern part of the league is 8-19 SU against the eastern part in the conference tournament.

    Creighton lost in finals of the tournament twice, Xavier once, but no midwestern team has won it, and this year is no different. Something to think about going forward.

    12) Houston 61, Memphis 58— This is going to be the last year in the foreseeable future where Memphis won’t go to the NCAA’s; Penny Hardaway did a good job in his first season, and he is crushing it on the recruiting trail. Memphis has a lot of high school talent.

    11) Tennessee 82, Kentucky 78— This is Wildcats’ first loss in SEC tourney since a 61-60 loss to Florida in the finals of the 2014 tournament. Tennessee plays Sunday for its first tournament title since 1979.

    Both of these teams are really good and either could win the NCAA title.

    Sometimes it is better to lose in the semi-final of the tourneys that play their final on Sunday; one thing you do NOT want is to play on Sunday, then draw a Thursday game in the NCAA’s, especially if it is Thursday afternoon— not lot of prep time.

    10) Michigan 76, Minnesota 49— Wolverines got swept by rival Michigan State this season; now the teams meet a third time, for the Big 14 title.

    9) Utah State 64, San Diego State 57— You could make a legit argument for Chris Smith to be national Coach of the Year. Last three years, Aggies were 22-32 in Big West games; this year, in his first season in Logan, Utah State is 27-6, 18-3 in conference.

    8) Iowa State 78, Kansas 66— Cyclones won Big X tournament for 4th time in last six years; this year, they came into the tournament on a 2-6 skid, but they seem to like Kansas City.

    7) Villanova 74, Seton Hall 72— Wildcats win Big East tournament for fourth time in last five years. For the season, 54% of Villanova’s shots were 3-pointers; thats unusual for a good team.

    6) Oregon 68, Washington 48— Huskies laid an egg here; they scored two points in first 9:30 of second half. Washington is 5-4 in its last nine games, after starting season 19-4.

    5) Chargers signed QB Tyrod Taylor this week, an excellent signing by a team in desperate need of a backup for aging Philip Rivers, who will be 38 in December. Last year’s Chargers’ backup QB’s were Geno Smith and Cardale Jones; Taylor is a huge upgrade from those two.

    4) Cleveland Browns’ QB Baker Mayfield took batting practice and then coached first base for the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday. Apparently Mayfield is buddies with Christian Yelich; he hit a foul ball into the stands that broke a woman’s watch.

    3) Pittsburgh Pirates honored TV analyst Steve Blass this weekend in Florida, naming the press box in Bradenton after him. Blass has been on TV for the Pirates for the last 34 years- he also pitched for the Pirates for a decade, helping them win the 1971 World Series.

    in 2009, Blass recorded two hole-in-ones in the same round of golf, a pretty cool feat.

    2) During that same game, Pirates’ TV guys were insisting that Starling Marte has as much talent as Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, an interesting claim.

    1) Way back in 1963, the San Francisco Giants had three Alou brothers on their team: Matty, Felipe and Jesus. All three could hit;
    — Matty wound up with a .307 career batting average over 15 years,
    — Felipe wound up being a manager, winning more games than he lost over 14 years.
    — Jesus hit .280 in 15 major league seasons, winning two World Series rings with the A’s.

    This year, Vermont has three brothers on its team this year; the Duncans- Ernie, Robin and Everett. Never heard of three brothers on the same basketball team before. Now they’re all going to March Madness together, which is pretty cool.

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    Big Ten Trends and Angles

    Venue: United Center - Chicago

    Overall Betting Results
    Favorites/Underdogs: 8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS
    Over/Under: 7-7

    Sunday, March 17

    No. 3 Michigan
    Overall: 28-5 SU, 19-14 ATS
    Totals: 13-20 O/U

    No. 1 Michigan State
    Overall: 27-6 SU, 23-10 ATS
    Totals: 14-19 O/U

    No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 1 Michigan State (CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET)
    The Wolverines look for revenge after being denied the Big Ten regular-season championship in East Lansing last weekend. Winning a third straight tournament title would ease a lot of the sting. Michigan has won 10 consecutive conference tourney games, posting 75.8 points and winning by an average margin of nearly 14. John Beilein is the common denominator, finding ways to mold different types of teams into juggernauts by the time this juncture of the season rolls around. The head coach got wing Charles Matthews, his lone senior, back from an ankle injury to add depth. He makes a difference even though he hasn't looked 100 percent. Point guard Zavier Simpson has had a tremendous tournament getting everyone involved and controlling pace. Freshman Iggy Brazdeikis was voted the conference's top newcomer, but he fouled out in last weekend's loss after scoring 20 points and will be targeted for mismatches.

    Cassius Winston has been nursing numerous injuries but playing through them, so he'll look to hold up physically in order to make the difference against the Spartans' arch rival for the second straight week. The Wolverines held him to 1-for-8 shooting before he made five straight buckets to open a 25-4 run and take control of the game. He's averaging 25 points and 7.5 assists in two games against Michigan. Center Nick Ward missed last week's win but has been effective in his return from a hand injury, giving Tom Izzo a post threat to consistently work through who is more consistent than Xavier Tillman, who had 17 points and five blocks last weekend. Stretch-four Kenny Goins has shot 6-for-15 from 3-point range while grabbing 27 rebounds against Michigan, so he'll be relied upon heavily again. The Spartans were eliminated from last year's Big Ten Tournament by Michigan (75-64) after losing in the regular-season.




    SEC Trends and Angles

    Venue: Bridgestone Arena - Nashville

    Overall Betting Results
    Favorites/Underdogs: 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS
    Over/Under: 7-7

    Sunday, March 17

    No. 5 Auburn
    Overall: 25-9 SU, 17-16-1 ATS
    Totals: 17-16-1 O/U

    No. 3 Tennessee
    Overall: 29-4 SU, 17-14-1 ATS
    Totals: 18-14 O/U

    No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 3 Tennessee (ESPN, 1 p.m. ET)
    Bruce Pearl has the Tigers back in an SEC Tournament title game for the first time since 2000. Auburn hasn't won since 1985. Chuck Person, now embroiled in scandal, led the way as a player. Charles Barkley had just left for the NBA the year prior. This is a rarity for folks on the Plains, so expect the Tigers to receiver that message and come out ready to play. Pearl himself lost at Tennessee in '09, so running into them a decade later after all that's happened is wild. As far as his team goes, they defeated Tennessee 84-80 just last weekend, getting 22 points from Chuma Okeke and 16 points and eight assists from point guard Jared Harper. Both will have to be at their best for the Tigers to pull off this upset and become a historic team. Senior Bryce Brown knocked down four 3-pointers in the win over Tennessee and will have the green light, so count on him being aggressive. Auburn attacked a sound Tennessee defense that ranked top-10 in field-goal percentage defense most of the season. The Tigers wanted no part of bogging down by being complacent. Expect that to remain their strategy

    The Vols are playing to put themselves in position for a No. 1 seed, though the NCAA Tournament selection committee typically likes to have their decisions made overnight. It's very possible they're already locked in as a No. 2 seed, but you can expect they'll go out there to try and claim an SEC title anyway. It will be interesting to see if Vols fans can get tickets off of dejected Kentucky fans ready to leave Nashville in order to bolster Tennessee's advantage. Admiral Schofield has been spectacular down the stretch, stepping up to help keep defenses from completely locking in on Grant Williams, whose excellence in the clutch has become a driving force for this group. Point guard Jordan Bone was given a lot of credit for keeping Tennessee poised during its comeback against Kentucky and finished with 17 points, seven assists and just one turnover in the 84-80 March 9 loss that saw the teams combine for 62 3-point attempts. The Vols have won five of six outright since back-to-back road losses to Kentucky and LSU. Auburn has won seven straight.

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    645Yale -646 Harvard
    YALE is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) vs. good teams (Win Pct: 60% to 80%) in the current season.

    645Yale -646 Harvard
    HARVARD is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) as a dog in the current season.

    647Saint Louis -648 St Bonaventure
    ST BONAVENTURE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% in the current season.

    649Auburn -650 Tennessee
    TENNESSEE is 71-43 ATS (23.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

    651Tx Arlington -652 Georgia St
    TX-ARLINGTON is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games in the current season.

    653Cincinnati -654 Houston
    HOUSTON is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game in the current season.

    655Michigan -656 Michigan St
    MICHIGAN ST is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) in the current season.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Sunday, March 17



    Michigan @ Michigan State

    Game 655-656
    March 17, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Michigan
    75.212
    Michigan State
    78.601
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Michigan State
    by 3 1/2
    129
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Michigan State
    Pick
    131
    Dunkel Pick:
    Michigan State
    Under

    Cincinnati @ Houston


    Game 653-654
    March 17, 2019 @ 3:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    69.472
    Houston
    70.498
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 1
    127
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 4 1/2
    128 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (+4 1/2); Under

    TX-Arlington @ Georgia State


    Game 651-652
    March 17, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    TX-Arlington
    53.696
    Georgia State
    60.271
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Georgia State
    by 6 1/2
    127
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Georgia State
    by 3 1/2
    138 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Georgia State
    (-3 1/2); Under

    Auburn @ Tennessee


    Game 649-650
    March 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Auburn
    71.120
    Tennessee
    78.644
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 7 1/2
    150
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 4 1/2
    145 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (-4 1/2); Over

    St Louis @ St Bonaventure


    Game 647-648
    March 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    St Louis
    64.391
    St Bonaventure
    62.977
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    St Louis
    by 1 1/2
    116
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    St Bonaventure
    by 1 1/2
    120
    Dunkel Pick:
    St Louis
    (+1 1/2); Under

    Yale @ Harvard


    Game 645-646
    March 17, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Yale
    56.269
    Harvard
    55.629
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Yale
    by 1
    141
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Yale
    by 4 1/2
    144 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Harvard
    (+4 1/2); Under

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, March 17


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    YALE (21 - 7) vs. HARVARD (18 - 10) - 3/17/2019, 12:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    YALE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
    HARVARD is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
    HARVARD is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HARVARD is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    HARVARD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
    HARVARD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    YALE is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
    YALE is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
    YALE is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HARVARD is 6-1 against the spread versus YALE over the last 3 seasons
    HARVARD is 6-1 straight up against YALE over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SAINT LOUIS (22 - 12) vs. ST BONAVENTURE (18 - 15) - 3/17/2019, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAINT LOUIS is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    SAINT LOUIS is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ST BONAVENTURE is 4-1 against the spread versus SAINT LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
    ST BONAVENTURE is 5-0 straight up against SAINT LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    AUBURN (25 - 9) vs. TENNESSEE (29 - 4) - 3/17/2019, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
    TENNESSEE is 71-43 ATS (+23.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
    TENNESSEE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    AUBURN is 2-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    AUBURN is 2-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TX-ARLINGTON (17 - 15) vs. GEORGIA ST (23 - 9) - 3/17/2019, 2:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 63-33 ATS (+26.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with one or less days rest this season.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GEORGIA ST is 3-3 against the spread versus TX-ARLINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    GEORGIA ST is 4-2 straight up against TX-ARLINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CINCINNATI (27 - 6) vs. HOUSTON (31 - 2) - 3/17/2019, 3:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 this season.
    CINCINNATI is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    CINCINNATI is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in March games since 1997.
    CINCINNATI is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
    CINCINNATI is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
    CINCINNATI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    CINCINNATI is 50-80 ATS (-38.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
    HOUSTON is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
    HOUSTON is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    HOUSTON is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 4-3 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    CINCINNATI is 4-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MICHIGAN (28 - 5) vs. MICHIGAN ST (27 - 6) - 3/17/2019, 3:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MICHIGAN ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
    MICHIGAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 134.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    MICHIGAN is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in conference tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MICHIGAN ST is 3-3 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
    MICHIGAN ST is 3-3 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Sunday, March 17


    Ivy League tournament, New Haven
    Harvard beat Yale twice this season, by 16-2 points; they’ve won six of last seven series games, but lost 73-71 to Yale in Ivy tournament two years ago. Crimson won five of its last six games; only one of their guys played more than 29:00 in their 66-58 win over Penn yesterday- three of their last eight wins came in OT. Harvard turn ball over 21.8% of time in Ivy games, worst in league. Yale split its last six games after starting season 8-1 in Ivy; Bulldogs played three guys 31:00+ yesterday- they’re #33 experience team in country.

    Atlantic 14 tournament, Brooklyn
    Saint Louis is playing for 4th day in row; they played four starters 36:00+ yesterday- their subs play minutes #340, but so far this week, they’ve allowed 55.7 ppg in three wins. St Bonaventure outscored Saint Louis 20-10 on foul line in 66-57 home win over the Billikens eight days ago. Bonnies won last nine series games. Bonnies won nine of last ten games; they’re playing for third day in row. Bonnies’ subs played total of 6:00 yesterday in stress-free win over URI. St Bonaventure plays 2nd-slowest tempo games in conference; they’re shooting 30.8% on arc.

    SEC tournament, Nashville
    Bruce Pearl against his old team here. Auburn is playing for 4th day in row; they played nine guys 11:00+ yesterday- two guys played 33:00+. Tennessee has to bounce back from emotional win over Kentucky; is a #1 seed on line here? Vols won five of last six games, scoring 83-82 points last two days. Auburn scored 1.27 ppp in its 84-80 home win over Tennessee eight days ago, after trailing by 11 late in first half. Teams split last six series games, with Auburn winning last two. Vols are looking for first SEC tourney title since 1979.

    Sun Belt tournament, New Orleans
    Georgia State beat Texas-Arlington twice this year, by 5-6 points; Panthers won four of last five series games- they beat UTA by 13 in LY’s Sun Belt tourney. State won four in row, seven of last eight games; they’re experience team #29 that forces turnovers 20.2% of time, but is also worst rebounding team in league. Arlington is experience team #260 that has five new starters from LY; Mavericks won their last five games; they played nine guys 15:00+ in their win yesterday. State played four guys 31:00+ in their win yesterday.

    AAC tournament, Memphis
    Houston beat Cincinnati twice this year, by 7-16 points; they won by 16 at Cincinnati last Sunday- teams split last eight series games. Bearcats beat Houston 56-55 in LY’s AAC tourney. Cougars are 31-2, winning last four games; they allowed 45-58 points last two days. Houston is making 38.1% of its 3’s in AAC games, best in league- they get 38% of their points behind arc, most in AAC. Cincinnati won seven of its last nine games; they played Scott/Jenifer 39/37 minutes in 66-63 win over Wichita yesterday. Both teams are playing third day in a row.

    Big 14 tournament, Chicago
    Michigan State beat Michigan twice in last three weeks, by 7-12 points; Spartans are 7-3 in last ten series games. Wolverines beat State by 11 in LY’s Big 14 tourney. Michigan crushed its first two opponents this week, by 21-27 points, allowing 51 ppg. Wolverines won four of last five games; they’re using a 7-man rotation- one guy played more than 27:00 yesterday. Spartans won nine of their last ten games; they played three starters 30:00 yesterday, in 12-point win over Wisconsin. Michigan allowed 74+ points in its last four losses.

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    NCAAB

    Sunday, March 17


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Yale @ Harvard
    Yale
    Yale is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
    Yale is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Harvard
    Harvard is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
    Harvard is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Yale

    Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure
    Saint Louis
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saint Louis's last 5 games when playing St. Bonaventure
    Saint Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    St. Bonaventure
    St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saint Louis
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Bonaventure's last 5 games when playing Saint Louis

    Auburn @ Tennessee
    Auburn
    Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Auburn's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
    Tennessee
    Tennessee is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Auburn

    Texas-Arlington @ Georgia State
    Texas-Arlington
    Texas-Arlington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Texas-Arlington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Georgia State
    Georgia State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    Georgia State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

    Cincinnati @ Houston
    Cincinnati
    Cincinnati is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 11 games when playing Houston
    Houston
    Houston is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games when playing Cincinnati

    Michigan @ Michigan State
    Michigan
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan's last 5 games when playing Michigan State
    Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Michigan State
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan State's last 5 games when playing Michigan
    Michigan State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    Auburn vs Tennessee SEC tournament final odds, predictions and best bets
    Andrew Caley

    It’s been 34 years since Auburn won the SEC Tournament, and six years longer since Tennessee accomplished the feat. One of those droughts will end when the Tigers and Volunteers square off in the championship game.

    The Vols rallied from an eight-point deficit with three minutes left and posted an 82-78 victory over Kentucky as 1.5-point dogs in Saturday’s semifinals, earning a chance to avenge last weekend’s 84-80 loss at Auburn. The Tigers also benefited from some late heroics, as Jared Harper hit a 3-pointer in the closing seconds to lift them to a 65-62 semifinals triumph as 3.5-point favorites over Florida. We break down the best ways to wager the SEC tournament championship game.

    Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers (-4.5, 147.5)

    QUICK HITTER


    Tennessee is rolling again and is looking more like the team that won 19 straight games earlier in the season and are still in contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Volunteers have scored 80 or more points in three consecutive games (including the loss to Auburn).

    While the Vols didn’t win the race to 20 against Kentucky, it sure was close as they took a 21-20 lead a few possessions. And before that, Tennessee had won the race to 20 in its last five ball games and in 15 of the previous 20.

    The Tigers on the other hand, have been lackadaisical at the beginning of games so far during the SEC tournament. Auburn has a -1.3 average first half margin during the tourney, despite being a sizable favorite in each.

    PREDICTION: Race to 20 – Tennessee

    FIRST HALF BET

    Tennessee has been good to parlay those hot starts into strong first halves. The Vols ranked sixth in the nation in first half points per game at 40.4 per contest. However, that number has dropped to 36.5 over the Vols last 10 games and it sits at 35 during the tournament. Auburn’s slow starts have resulted in them scoring just 32.7 first half points per game. It’s too bad oddsmakers seem to be all over these numbers setting the first half total at 68. So, with the Tigers’ propensity for slow starts in the tourney look for the Vols to have a small lead going into halftime.

    PREDICTION: First half spread – Tennessee -2.5

    TEAM/PLAYER PROP

    So, all those numbers mean that the Volunteers are using their depth to take over in the second half of games. They have averaged 44.7 second half points per contest over their last three games, including a big 46 points in their come from behind win over Kentucky in the semis and scored 39 in the game at Auburn.

    While the Tigers do some things well on defense, they ranked 10th in the SEC and 149th in the country in opponent field goal percentage. They were even worse at chasing opponents off the 3-point line ranking 12th in the SEC and 220th in the country at opponent 3-point percentage. Take the Volunteers to go Over their second half total.

    PREDICTION:
    Second half team total - Tennessee Over 40

    FULL GAME TOTAL


    Tennessee is a very good defending team, ranking 18th in the country in opponent field goal percentage, but they still rank 90 in opponent points scored, allowing 68.2 per contest. But their biggest weakness is defending the long ball. Tennessee ranks 134th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage at 34. That means the Vols could have some trouble against the Tigers talented backcourt.

    Auburn’s guard duo of Bryce Brown (15.7 points) and Harper (15.4, 5.8 assists) are lethal from 3-point range, hitting nearly 40 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc. And no one shoots more 3-pointers than the Tigers. Auburn set an SEC-record with 381 made 3-pointers this season. There is too much shooting talent on both sides of the ball to stay below the total as listed.

    PREDICTION:
    Over 147.5

    FULL GAME SIDE

    While the Tigers can shoot threes with the best of ‘em. In the end they won’t be able to compete with the depth and the completeness of this Volunteers team. Forwards Grant Williams (19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds) and Admiral Schofield (16.6, 6.2) combined for 41 points in the semifinals, and point guard Jordan Bone (13.5, 6.2 assists) kept up his outstanding play with 18 points and five assists. Bone has recorded 30 assists and five turnovers in his last five contests. Tennessee will pull away late with another one of their second half scoring runs and cover the number in the process.

    PREDICTION:
    Tennessee -4.5

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    Saint Louis vs St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 tournament final odds, predictions, and best bets
    Jason Logan

    In a surprise finish, the Atlantic 10 Championship comes down to No. 4 St. Bonaventure and No. 6 Saint Louis, with the two programs vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament at 1 p.m. ET inside the Barclays Center Sunday. Jason Logan sizes up this matchup, breaks down the college basketball betting odds, and gives his best bets for the A-10 tournament final.

    SAINT LOUIS BILLIKENS VS ST. BONAVENTURE BONNIES (-1, 121.5)

    QUICK HITTER


    Saint Bonaventure was painfully slow out of the blocks in its semifinal game with Rhode Island, falling behind big midway through the first half. The Bonnies lost the race to 20 points, 20-10 to the Rams, and have been edge in that spring to 20 points in three of their last four outings. That includes a 22-17 gap in their last matchup with Saint Louis in the season finale back on March 9. The Billikens have put in two of their best offensive efforts of the season in the A-10 tournament and they will start with plenty of energy Sunday.

    PREDICTION:
    Saint Louis Race to 20

    FIRST HALF BET

    As mentioned, the Bonnies aren’t sprinting from the tip and have conserved their energy for strong second-half pushes in recent games. St. Bonaventure, which averages just 30.4 first-half points on the season, has played below that production in four of its last five games, amounting first-half scores of 27, 34, 22, 17, and 27 in that span. The Bonnies managed just 22 points at the break in that recent matchup with the Billikens and will be slow and steady to start Sunday’s final.

    PREDICTION:
    Under St. Bonaventure 28.5 first-half team total

    TEAM PROP

    We hinted at this one in the above prediction, but the Bonnies have been a two-faced team in recent games, saving their best stuff for the final 20 minutes. St. Bonaventure averages 35.7 points in the second half over its last three games, including a 44-30 second-half beatdown of the Billikens back on March 9. They absolutely walked over Rhode Island in the second half of Saturday’s semifinal, outscoring the Rams 41-22 and limiting URI to 7-of-25 shooting in the final frame.

    PREDICTION:
    St. Bonaventure -0.5 second-half pointspread

    FULL GAME TOTAL

    Saint Louis finished the regular season ranked among the worst shooting teams in the nation, sitting 318th in effective field goal percentage (47%) but have been a different team in Brooklyn. The Billikens shot over 48 percent from the field in the win over Davidson, including 8 for 17 from distance, and connected on 47.5 percent of their looks in their tournament opener versus Richmond.

    And while the Billikens last two defensive efforts look impressive in the box score – allowing just 44 and 55 points – that has a lot more to do with poor shooting performances from Davidson and Dayton than lockdown defense from SLU. The Wildcats had plenty of open looks in Saturday’s semis but couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat, finishing 7 for 30 from beyond the arc.

    The Bonnies are the premier Under bet in the country, sitting 9-23-1 Over/Under and staying below the total in eight straight. However, Bona has shown some flair on the offensive end of the floor – especially in second halves, as noted above. The Bonnies have been extremely balanced on offense, with four starters in double figures and the fifth with nine points in the win over Rhode Island.

    With both “low scoring” schools playing beyond their offensive average, I see value with the Over Sunday.

    PREDICTION:
    Over 121.5

    FULL GAME SIDE

    St. Bonaventure is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, stringing together three in a row and winning nine of its last 10 contests, posting a 7-3 ATS mark in those games. The Bonnies, known for their methodical pace and stingy interior defense, run a big lineup with taller stronger guards and elite shot blockers like Osun Osunniyi defending the paint.

    Part of Saint Louis’ success is rebounding, ranked 14th in total boards and making up for poor shooting with plenty of second-chance buckets. It owned the glass versus Davidson, out-rebounding the Wildcats 41-26, including eight offensive rebounds, and is out-working A-10 tournament opponents on the boards 110-75 in its three postseason tilts, including 33 total offensive rebounds.

    Unfortunately, for SLU, the Bonnies’ size and defense will force more perimeter shots from the Billikens, and after playing four games in four days, Saint Louis will show that wear and tear in the second half. I see St. Bonaventure breaking Saint Louis in the final 20 minutes, after what will be a very physical final at the Barclays Center.

    PREDICTION:
    St. Bonaventure -1

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    Cincinnati vs Houston AAC tournament final odds, predictions, and best bets
    Jason Logan

    The Cincinnati Bearcats and Houston Cougars battle for the AAC Championship at FedEx Forum in Memphis Sunday, with the tournament final tipping off at 3:15 p.m. ET. Jason Logan has been all over the AAC postseason and gives his best bets and pointspread prediction for Cincinnati versus Houston.

    CINCINNATI BEARCATS VS HOUSTON COUGARS (-4, 128.5)

    QUICK HITTER


    Defense may be the calling card of the Cougars, but offense has been the order of their current four-game winning streak. Houston is averaging more than 80 points per game during this run and has sprinted ahead in the opening minutes of three of those games.

    The Cougars outpaced the Memphis Tigers to a 21-10 lead in the semifinals of the AAC tournament Saturday and went up 20-16 over UConn in the quarters. And while they didn’t beat Cincinnati in a race to 20 in their March 10 meeting in the season finale (18-20), the Cougars did blow away SMU early on, owning a 21-13 lead in the opening 10 minutes.

    Houston’s 3-point prowess will push this one over the edge, with the team shooting better than 41 percent from distance over the past four games. They buried 12 of 23 triples in an 85-69 road win at Cincy to end the regular season.

    PREDICTION:
    Houston Race To 20

    FIRST HALF BET

    Cincinnati is the 12th-ranked defense in the land and allows just 28.8 points per opening half on the year. However, that stingy play to tip off games has slipped in the AAC tournament, giving up 32 points in the first half to Wichita State Saturday and 38 points to SMU in the tournament quarterfinals.

    That softening defense stretches back to the last meeting with Houston, in which the Bearcats budged for 37 points – setting the stage for a blowout loss. The teams combined for 72 points in the opening 20 minutes and bettors should expect another busy first half on the scoreboard Sunday.

    PREDICTION:
    Over 59 first half points

    TEAM PROP

    Houston is a tough team to figure out and it’s shown it can win basketball games on both ends of the floor during the AAC tournament. The Cougars’ core though is a defense ranked eighth in the country, and one that tallies an effective defensive field goal percentage of 42.2 – tops in the KenPom Ratings and a key “Four Factors” data point.

    When the going gets tough, UH will lean on its defense to drum up bad shots, generate long rebounds, and push transition basketball down their opponents’ throats. Cincinnati is coming off a bruising battle with a very physical Wichita State team and will find itself chasing down Houston’s fast break in the second half.

    PREDICTION:
    Houston -2.5 second-half pointspread

    FULL GAME TOTAL

    The Cougars’ best plan of attack versus Memphis Saturday was the slow down the tempo and not allow the Tigers to get off and running, feeding energy to their home crowd inside the FedEx Forum. And they executed on that for the most part, limiting Memphis to only 58 points on their home floor.

    Against the Bearcats, however, Houston is going to want to take Cincy out of its comfort zone – which is among the slowest paces in the country – and suck UC into a track meet. The Bearcats found themselves in a similar style shootout versus SMU in the quarters and were very lucky to escape that game.

    In their March 10 meeting, the Cougars dominated the glass and got up and down the floor for 63 field goal attempts. In its last three games, UH is averaging 66 attempts – a significant jump from their average of 59 per game.

    PREDICTION:
    Over 128.5

    FULL GAME SIDE

    The Bearcats just haven’t looked right over the past four games. Cincinnati backed into the postseason on two straight losses, including getting boat raced by Houston in the season finale, and then lured into a track meet with a short-handed SMU squad that eventually ran out of gas in the tournament semifinals.

    Granted, the semifinal win over Wichita State was a solid one – given how well WSU was playing at the time – but Cincy made it hard on itself (and bettors) by squandering a 13-point lead midway through the second half.

    Houston is playing at an extremely high level and is also fueled by a bit of revenge after losing to the Bearcats in this same final last season. The Cougars still have the taste of that one-point loss in their mouths and I’m sure head coach Kelvin Sampson will make sure to remind them some time before tipoff Sunday.

    PREDICTION:
    Houston -4

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    Michigan vs Michigan State Big Ten tournament final odds, predictions and best bet

    The Big Ten Tournament Final will feature the top two seeds as the Michigan State Spartans take on the Michigan Wolverines. Both teams cruised through the rest of the competition in the conference without breaking a sweat but should be in for a much tougher fight in this game tipping off at the United Centre in Chicago at 3:30 p.m ET.

    The Spartans won both games in the head-to-head series during the regular season but Michigan has played some of their best basketball of the season in this tournament, coming off a 27-point win against Minnesota and a 21-point win versus Iowa. We break down the best bets and pointspread predictions for this rivalry.

    Michigan Wolverines vs Michigan State Spartans (-1, 129.5)

    Quick Hitter


    The Michigan Wolverines have been getting out to fast starts lately (more on that later) and in their previous game against MSU they were up 22-14 midway through the first half before eventually losing by 12 points. Take the Wolverines on the race to 20.

    Prediction:
    Race to 20 points - Michigan Wolverines

    First Half Bet

    Michigan was hanging tight with MSU for most of the last two games, except for a few cold-shooting stretches in the second half of each game where they fell behind. In the first half of those two games they scored 35 and 37 points.

    In their last two games of the conference tournament the Wolverines managed 40 points in the first half against Iowa and 38 in the first half against Minnesota. With the fast starts that the Michigan offense has been producing lately, take the 1H Over on their points.

    Prediction:
    First Half Points - Michigan Over

    Team Prop

    Michigan has one of the most dominant defenses in the country, ranking second in the country in points allowed per game with just 58.4. However, Spartans guard Cassius Winston has broken down the Wolverines vaunted defense with ball-screens and pick and pop plays. Winston scored 27 of the Spartans 77 points in the first game and 23 of their 75 points in the second.

    While Winston has been playing with an injured toe in the tournament, he has still been very effective (especially in Saturday's game against Wisconsin) and it isn't like he relied on his athleticism to beat Michigan anyway. It was his crafty decision making when it came to getting to the rim or kicking the ball out to a perimeter shooter like Kenny Goins or Matt McQuaid.

    Back the Spartans to go Over their team total on points thanks to their floor general.

    Prediction:
    Michigan State points Over 65.5 (-115)

    Full Game Total

    The line for this game opened the O/U came in at 134.5 and then promptly moved to 129.5 after sharp bets. Both of these sides have excellent defenses, however in the two games these teams played against each other this season they combined for 138 points in Lansing and 147 points in Ann Arbour.

    The Over has cashed in all of the previous five games between these two teams. Take the Over on the total of 129.5.

    Prediction:
    Over 129.5 (-110)

    Full Game Side

    Michigan State won both of the games in the head-to-head series this season and both of those contests took place within the last three weeks, so it's not like either team has changed much since then.

    A matter of fact MSU might have gotten a little better with forward Nick Ward having returned from injury. Michigan has also gotten back Charles Matthews who missed the last game versus the Spartans. But Matthews played in the first game and was absolutely shut down, going just one for eight from the field, so we don't think he'll have too much of an impact.

    As good as the Wolverines defense has been, Winston has been able to solve it and should Michigan's shooters go cold for a spell - as they have a tendency to do against good teams - they could dig themselves a hole that will be difficult to get out of.

    This MSU team simply matches up too well with Michigan to fade them now. Take MSU to win the game - and the tournament - by at least two points.

    Prediction:
    Michigan State -1 (-110)

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