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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/14

  1. #1
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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/14

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, March 14

    Good Luck on day # 73 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Odds to win the NIT (seriously, you can bet on this already)

    10-1— Butler

    15-1— Clemson, Georgetown, Xavier

    20-1— Belmont, Creighton, Davidson, Furman, Lipscomb, San Francisco

    25-1— Arizona, Oregon, Oregon St, South Dakota St, Temple

    30-1— Alabama, Arizona St, Dayton, Florida, Texas, Washington

    50-1— Arkansas, Cal-Irvine, Colorado, Fresno St, Loyola, Minnesota, ODU, St John’s


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

    13) I’m not a New Jersey Giants’ fan, I’m a Ram fan who spends way too much time handicapping sports. Not really sure what the Giants are thinking when they trade Odell Beckham but keep their 38-year old QB. They also dumped Vernon/Collins, so their defense has been depleted.

    Peter King wrote that the Giants “…..are an expansion team with a 38-year old QB.”

    Better hit a home run with those two draft picks they got from Cleveland. Giants have three of the first 37 picks in the draft, so there is opportunity there.

    In fairness to the Giants, the last two Decembers, Beckham played one game, and caught three passes for 35 yards in that game. I’m not saying what they did was wrong, I’m just saying that what they’re doing confuses me. Why not go young at quarterback, too?

    This is the first time since 1984 the Giants have two 1st-round picks in a draft. That year, they took LB Carl Banks and OL William Roberts.

    12) Westgate SuperBook dropped Cleveland from 25-1 to 14-1 to win the Super Bowl; William Hill books lowered them from 25-1 to 18-1.

    Giants went from 40-1 to 80-1 to win the Super Bowl, which seems a bit excessive. Maybe it is more accurate to say that 40-1 was too low to begin with.

    11) Le’Veon Bell gets $52.5M, four years from the Jets. I’m curious how many of these contracts are affecting the NFL’s primetime schedule for this coming season.

    Terrell Suggs played 16 years for the Ravens but is now on Arizona; that would be an interesting Monday night game.

    Do the Steelers play the Jets this year?

    Earl Thomas signed with the Ravens Wednesday; another potential 2019 primetime matchup.

    10) No matter what, the NFL continues their amazing ability to stay in the headlines 12 months a year. After the NCAA’s, the NFL schedule will come out next month, then the draft is late next month. Always something going on.

    9) Iona has won the MAAC tournament four years in a row; here is how they did in the NCAA’s the last three years:
    — 2018, lost 89-67 to Duke (+20)
    — 2017, lost 93-77 to Oregon (+15.5)
    — 2016, lost 94-81 to Iowa State (+7.5)

    Something tells me the Gaels might be heading to Dayton next week.

    8) Saint Mary’s 60, Gonzaga 47— After the brackets come out Sunday night, it’ll be fun to try and figure out which team got KO’d from the tournament because Saint Mary’s won this game. Gonzaga hadn’t lost a conference tournament game since 2012.

    7) William & Mary fired coach Tony Shaver Wednesday; the Tribe has never made the NCAA tournament, which is obviously a sticking point, but the last six years, W&M was 64-42 in CAA games, with all six seasons above .500 in conference play.

    Last six years, Tribe was 6-6 in CAA tourney, losing in finals in both 2014, 2015- they lost to Delaware by a point in ’14. There is no guarantee the new coach will be a better coach than Shaver— JMU fired Matt Brady three years ago and is 19-35 in CAA games since then.

    6) Was odd seeing Magic Johnson at the OVC tournament, watching Ja Morant play; you don’t expect to see an NBA legend courtside when you’re watching a Belmont-Murray State game. Magic was at the ACC tournament in Charlotte Wednesday.

    5) NC State 59, Clemson 58— Tigers led by 18, but lost; they’re 18-13, and probably headed to the NIT. Here are some of the reasons they didn’t win 20 games:

    — Nov 26, lost 68-66 to Nebraska
    — Jan 26, lost 69-67 at NC State
    — Feb 13, lost 65-64 at Miami
    — Feb 16, lost 56-55 at Louisville
    — March 2, lost 81-79 to North Carolina
    — March 13, lost 59-58 to NC State

    4) Ted Valentine did the Clemson-NC State noon game in Charlotte; wouldn’t have been the least bit surprised if he had showed up somewhere else on TV, reffing a night game. When was last time a ref worked two games in the same day? Has it ever happened at that level?

    3) Big Sky tournament: 3-point shooting decided the first two games:
    — Saacramento State 72, Northern Arizona 60— Hornets were 12-20 on the arc.
    — Southern Utah 94, Idaho State 80— Thunderbirds were 11-15 on the arc.

    2) West Virginia 72, Oklahoma 71— Kid on Oklahoma swished what looked like a game-tying 3-pointer at the buzzer, but his toes were on the line, so it was only a 2-point shot and the Sooners head to the bubble- their next four days will be agonizing, waiting to hear their fate Sunday.

    1) Cleveland Browns were going to sign WR Breshad Perriman, but when they traded for Beckham, that ship sailed, so Perriman signed a one-year, $4M deal with Tampa Bay instead.

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, March 14


    Cleveland lost three of its last four games but since All-Star break, they’re 7-3 vs spread. Six of their last nine games went over. Orlando lost four of its last five games; they’re 6-7 vs spread if they played night before, 3-4 on road. Seven of their last nine games stayed under. Cavaliers are 5-3 in their last eight games with the Magic; they’re 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Orlando. Five of last six series games stayed under.

    Oklahoma City won three of its last four games; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread if they played night before. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Indiana lost five of its last eight games; they’re 7-3 vs spread in last ten home games. Last four Pacer games stayed under. Thunder/Pacers split their last ten meetings; is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Indiana. Last three series games stayed under the total.

    Sacramento lost five of its last seven games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Seven of their last eight games stayed under. Boston won four of its last six games; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six home games. Six of their last eight games stayed under. Celtics won eight of last nine games with Sacramento; four of last five series games went under. Kings are 1-3 vs spread in their last four visits to Boston.

    Lakers lost 14 of their last 20 games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six road games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Raptors lost three of their last five games; they’re 1-6 vs spread in last seven home games. Three of their last four home games stayed under. Lakers lost their last eight games with Toronto; they’re 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Canada. Six of last eight series games stayed under.

    Minnesota won three of its last five games; they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five road games. Seven of their last eight games went over. Utah lost three of its last five games; they’re 0-4 vs spread at home if they played night before. Six of their last eight games stayed under. Wolves lost two of three games with Utah this season, with average total of 217.7 in those games, two of which stayed under the total.

    Dallas lost six in row, 11 of last 12 games; Mavericks are 1-5 vs spread in last six road games. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Denver lost four of its last six games; they’re 9-3 vs spread in last dozen home games. Under is 10-1-1 in their last dozen games. Dallas lost twice to the Nuggets this year, by 8-10 points (over 1-1).

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, March 14


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    CLEVELAND (17 - 51) at ORLANDO (31 - 38) - 3/14/2019, 7:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ORLANDO is 5-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 6-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OKLAHOMA CITY (42 - 26) at INDIANA (43 - 25) - 3/14/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    INDIANA is 85-70 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 175-136 ATS (+25.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANA is 2-2 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SACRAMENTO (33 - 33) at BOSTON (41 - 27) - 3/14/2019, 7:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 4-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA LAKERS (31 - 36) at TORONTO (48 - 20) - 3/14/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA LAKERS are 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all games this season.
    LA LAKERS are 23-34 ATS (-14.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
    LA LAKERS are 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
    LA LAKERS are 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
    LA LAKERS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    LA LAKERS are 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
    LA LAKERS are 21-30 ATS (-12.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    LA LAKERS are 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    TORONTO is 21-32 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
    TORONTO is 150-189 ATS (-57.9 Units) in March games since 1996.
    TORONTO is 21-30 ATS (-12.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 5-0 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 5-0 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MINNESOTA (32 - 36) at UTAH (38 - 29) - 3/14/2019, 9:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 6-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    UTAH is 7-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DALLAS (27 - 40) at DENVER (44 - 22) - 3/14/2019, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in home games this season.
    DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
    DALLAS is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) in all games this season.
    DALLAS is 58-44 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    DALLAS is 519-441 ATS (+33.9 Units) in road games since 1996.
    DALLAS is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    DALLAS is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    DALLAS is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 5-5 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 7-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2019 at 12:02 PM.

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    NBA

    Thursday, March 14


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Oklahoma City Thunder
    Oklahoma City is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
    Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games
    Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Oklahoma City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games on the road
    Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Oklahoma City's last 25 games when playing Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing Indiana
    Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Oklahoma City's last 15 games when playing on the road against Indiana
    Indiana Pacers
    Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
    Indiana is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Indiana's last 25 games at home
    Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Indiana's last 25 games when playing Oklahoma City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Indiana's last 15 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

    Cleveland Cavaliers
    Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games
    Cleveland is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
    Cleveland is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Orlando
    Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Orlando
    Cleveland is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games when playing Orlando
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Orlando
    Cleveland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    Cleveland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cleveland's last 12 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    Orlando Magic
    Orlando is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games
    Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games at home
    Orlando is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
    Orlando is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Cleveland
    Orlando is 3-20 SU in its last 23 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
    Orlando is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    Orlando is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando's last 12 games when playing at home against Cleveland

    Sacramento Kings
    Sacramento is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Sacramento is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games
    Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Sacramento is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games on the road
    Sacramento is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Boston
    Sacramento is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing Boston
    Sacramento is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Sacramento's last 18 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Celtics
    Boston is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games
    Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Boston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home
    Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Boston is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Sacramento
    Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Sacramento
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
    Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Sacramento
    Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Boston's last 18 games when playing at home against Sacramento

    Los Angeles Lakers
    LA Lakers is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
    LA Lakers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    LA Lakers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    LA Lakers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Lakers's last 12 games on the road
    LA Lakers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    LA Lakers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 8 games when playing Toronto
    LA Lakers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    LA Lakers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Lakers's last 11 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Raptors
    Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
    Toronto is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
    Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Toronto is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 12 games at home
    Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
    Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing LA Lakers
    Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
    Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

    Minnesota Timberwolves
    Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
    Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
    Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Utah
    Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
    Minnesota is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Minnesota's last 22 games when playing on the road against Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Utah is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games
    Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Utah is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Utah's last 24 games at home
    Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    Utah is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Utah's last 22 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

    Dallas Mavericks
    Dallas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
    Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
    Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
    Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
    Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver Nuggets
    Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Denver is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
    Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games
    Denver is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Denver is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
    Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
    Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2019 at 12:02 PM.

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    559 CLEVELAND -560 ORLANDO
    ORLANDO is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons.

    563 SACRAMENTO -564 BOSTON
    BOSTON is 42-20 ATS (20 Units) in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game in the last 3 seasons.

    565 LA LAKERS -566 TORONTO
    TORONTO is 221-285 ATS (-92.5 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

    567 MINNESOTA -568 UTAH
    UTAH is 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days in the last 3 seasons.

    569 DALLAS -570 DENVER
    DENVER is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more in the current season.
    Common sense is not so common.
    “You can have everything you want in life if you help enough other people get what they want out of life.” Zig Ziglar

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    Quote Originally Posted by BettorsChat View Post
    559 CLEVELAND -560 ORLANDO

    You're moving fast this morning! Thanks, BC!

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, March 14



    Dallas @ Denver

    Game 569-570
    March 14, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    111.247
    Denver
    118.433
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 7
    226
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 11 1/2
    220
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+11 1/2); Over

    Minnesota @ Utah


    Game 567-568
    March 14, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    114.591
    Utah
    119.482
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Utah
    by 5
    215
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Utah
    by 8 1/2
    221 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (+8 1/2); Under

    LA Lakers @ Toronto


    Game 565-566
    March 14, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Lakers
    108.502
    Toronto
    124.925
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 16 1/2
    238
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toronto
    by 10
    233
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (-10); Over

    Sacramento @ Boston


    Game 563-564
    March 14, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Sacramento
    111.784
    Boston
    124.537
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 13
    236
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 8
    227
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston
    (-8); Over

    Oklahoma City @ Indiana


    Game 561-562
    March 14, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oklahoma City
    116.622
    Indiana
    121.023
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indiana
    by 4 1/2
    209
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indiana
    by 1
    218
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indiana
    (-1); Under

    Cleveland @ Orlando


    Game 559-560
    March 14, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    111.056
    Orlando
    122.192
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Orlando
    by 11
    207
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Orlando
    by 7 1/2
    211 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Orlando
    (-7 1/2); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2019 at 12:04 PM.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    Chris David

    March Madness will continue to take catch most of the headlines over the next few weeks but the NBA doesn’t stop the daily grind. Favorites kept their momentum going last nigh with a 4-2 record both straight up and against the spread. Since Monday, the ‘chalk’ has gone 15-4 SU and 13-6 versus the number. The ‘under’ posted a 5-1 record last night and is 12-7 in the last three days.

    We’ve got another six games on tap tonight and below is my quick handicap.

    East meets West

    Two tough games to handicap here as a pair of Pacific Division clubs likely to miss the postseason are catching points against two Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference contenders.

    Sacramento (33-33 SU, 38-36-2 ATS) at Boston (41-27 SU, 33-33-2 ATS):
    The Celtics (-8) are laying a healthy number to the Kings and the pair just met on Mar. 6 and Boston captured a 111-109 win as a two-point home favorite without the services of All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving. The first game back from a long road trip is never easy and Boston faces that spot after going 3-1 on the West Coast, which ended with a 140-115 loss to the Clippers on Monday. The Kings have been a great surprise this season but you can see that they’re clearly out of gas and key injuries have hurt the team down the stretch. In the second half, Sacramento has gone 3-6 SU and 4-4-1 ATS and two of the wins came against the lowly New York Knicks. The total (228 ½) seems a little high knowing Sacramento is on a 7-2 ‘under’ run and Boston’s first three games at home since the All-Star break have all gone ‘under’ and the offense only averaged 101 points per game in those contests.

    L.A. Lakers (31-36 SU, 36-39-2 ATS) at Toronto (48-20 SU, 28-39-1 ATS):
    The Lakers snapped their five-game losing skid on Tuesday with a 123-107 win over the Bulls as two-point road favorites. Expecting Los Angeles to win two straight would certainly be a reach, knowing it hasn’t done so since Jan. 17. Making a case to back Toronto after it just dropped a 126-101 loss at Cleveland on Monday as an 8 ½-point doesn’t seem like a sound decision either. The Raptors have won eight straight against the Lakers and they’ve covered seven of those wins. The pair met at the Staples Center on Nov. 4 and Toronto blasted Los Angeles 121-107 when the Lakers were at full strength. TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.

    Back-to-Back Spots

    Three teams will be playing on no rest tonight and two of them are coming off road wins. Along with looking at their production when facing back-to-back spots, I provide some angles and trends to watch as well plus expert Tony Mejia jumps in on the non-conference matchup between OKC and Indiana.

    Orlando (4-8 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 9-3 O/U) vs. Cleveland:
    The Magic have alternated losses and wins in their last four games on no rest, and the most recent setback came in a 107-93 decision at Cleveland on Mar. 3 as a six-point road favorite. They’ve been better at home in back-to-back situations, going 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS. Orlando is losing its grip on the playoff chase, losers in four of its last five and that includes a 100-90 loss at Washington last night. I thought the line was short (Magic -7 ½) and certainly would back the squad that’s spiraling out of control plus the Cavaliers have gone 7-3 ATS in the second-half.

    Oklahoma City (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U) at Indiana:
    The Thunder have only played two road games on no rest and it’s gone 1-1 in those games, which includes a Mar. 8 loss at the L.A. Clippers, 118-110. Oklahoma City rallied past Brooklyn 108-96 last night as a seven-point home favorite and they trailed that game by 10 at halftime. Mejia weighed in on their quick trip to Indiana, and focuses on a former Pacers All-Star.

    “Paul George returning to Indiana as a visiting player is still a big deal even though he’s now done it once before, but I’m more interested in how he shoots it rather than how much he’s booed. He got off to a slow start in Wednesday’s win over Brooklyn and was icing his left shoulder after feeling the effects of the right shoulder soreness that led to a 3-game absence, leading to a shooting slump that had seen him shoot less than 30 percent over his previous four games. George finally found a rhythm and hit a flurry of 3-pointers to help swing the game in the Thunder’s favor and finished 9-for-18 from the field, finishing with 25 points in a 108-96 over the Nets. George shot 3-for-14 in his return to Banker’s Life Fieldhouse last season but still contributed to OKC’s 100-95 with his defense and the attention he commands. He could be in a similar situation here on the second night of a back-to-back if soreness develops. The ‘under’ has prevailed in eight of the last 10 games involving the Thunder,” said Mejia.

    Utah (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U) vs. Minnesota:
    The Jazz have won two straight and four of their last five contests played on no rest and that includes a 2-1 record at Salt Lake City, both coming against non-playoff teams in the Bulls and Mavericks. Similar to OKC, the Jazz had a strong finish last night and defeated Phoenix 114-97 as an 8 ½-point road favorite. The Timberwolves have gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and the defense has been an absolute mess on the road recently. Minnesota is allowing 128 PPG in its last seven road and that’s led to a 1-6 record. Not surprisingly, the ‘over’ has gone 6-1 in those games. The Jazz are 2-1 both SU and ATS this season versus the T-Wolves and they scored 125 in both of their victories.

    Late-Night in Denver

    Dallas (27-40 SU, 37-29-1 ATS) and Denver (44-22 SU, 36-30 ATS) will wrap up Thursday’s action in a nationally televised game on TNT at 10:35 p.m. ET.

    “Luka Doncic is trying to play through a knee sprain and has a number of other ailments affecting him, including a slight case of the yips at the free-throw line given his performance against the Spurs. Considering playing in Denver is never easy and the Slovenian rookie star shot just 5-for-15 in a 126-118 loss in his first performance there back on Dec. 18, the Mavericks may give the night off or limit his minutes since they don’t play again until Saturday. Not having Doncic around to play offensive catalyst would significantly impact Dallas’ ability to challenge a Nuggets team that is taking full advantage of finally being at full strength. Although they’ve lost at the Spurs and Warriors this month, the Northwest Division leaders have beaten the Lakers and Timberwolves by a combined 42 points in their last two wins,” added Mejia.

    Denver has been a beast at home (28-6 SU, 23-11 ATS) this season and it’s laying a big price tonight as an 11-point favorite. While Dallas has been competitive at home, especially for bettors, they’ve been hit or miss on the road (6-27 SU, 16-17 ATS).

    The Nuggets have won and covered both meetings against Dallas this season, which includes a 126-118 win on Dec. 18 as a 4 ½-point home favorite. Including that result, the Mavericks have dropped five straight games (2-3 ATS) at the Pepsi Center but only one of the losses came by more than 11 points.

    Denver snapped an 8-0 ‘under’ run on Tuesday in its 133-107 win over Minnesota as the ‘over’ connected (227) late. The Dallas offense (100.8 PPG) hasn’t been great lately and that production has led to a 5-2 ‘under’ run in its last seven games. Tonight’s total is hovering around 220 points.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2019 at 12:04 PM.

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    Hoop Trends - Thursday
    Vince Akins

    ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

    The Kings are 11-0 ATS (10.36 ppg) on the road with rest coming off a loss as a road dog.

    ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

    The Cavaliers are 0-12-1 ATS (-10.69 ppg) on the road with rest after a game as a road dog in which they shot under 40% from the field.

    OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

    The Cavaliers are 9-0 OU (10.89 ppg) off a game as a dog in which they scored a least 18 fast break points.

    OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

    The Mavericks are 0-11 OU (-11.55 ppg) coming off a loss in a home game in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2019 at 12:05 PM.

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