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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/7

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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/7

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, March 7

    Good Luck on day # 66 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Odds to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this weekend:

    7-1— Rory McIlroy

    10-1— Justin Rose

    12-1— Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler

    14-1— Jason Day

    16-1— Bryson DeChambeau

    20-1— Hideki Matsuyama


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

    13) Back in December, when I was flying home to Albany from Las Vegas, with a stop in Baltimore, one of the other passengers on my flight from Vegas to Baltimore was Eric Weddle’s dad. How do I know this? The guy had a purple Ravens’ t-shirt on, with “Weddle 32” on the back, and he talked proudly and for a long time about his son to the people sitting near him in the terminal.

    It was pretty cool to hear a father talk so glowingly about his son; the Ravens released Eric Weddle this week. Hard to believe another NFL team won’t scoop him up when free agency starts next week.

    12) West Virginia 90, Iowa State 75— Watching this game it dawned on me that lot of players are looking tired the last couple weeks. Long season, thin benches, conference tournaments are next week and these are the dog days. Cyclones got crushed here; it was 54-33 at halftime.

    11) Seton Hall 73, Marquette 64— Marquette led by 13 with 9:45 left, but Myles Powell went off and the Pirates get a big win, ending game on an 18-0 run. Powell scored 34 for Seton Hall.

    10) LSU 79, Florida 78, OT— These teams went OT in both meetings this year, splitting the pair; this was LSU’s 7th OT game this season. Florida had the ball for the last shot in OT, but never even got a shot off.

    9) DePaul 101, Georgetown 69— This game was 42-15 at one point; when was last time DePaul led anyone by 27 in the first half? Georgetown played like a team that will be hosting an NIT game in a couple weeks.

    8) Basketball budgets in the SEC:
    1. Kentucky $18.6M
    2. Ole Miss $12.55M
    3. Auburn $11.2M
    4. Texas A&M $10.4M
    5. Alabama $10.3M
    6. South Carolina $10M
    7. Vanderbilt $9.7M
    8. Arkansas $9.2M
    9. Florida $9.0M
    10. LSU $8.6M
    11. Georgia $8.5M
    12. Tennessee $8.4M
    13. Missouri $8.4M
    14. Mississippi State $6.8M

    7) Fresno State 76, San Diego State 74— Aztecs choked this game away; they led by 7 with about a minute to play, but turned the ball over a few times and lost for 7th time in last nine meetings with Fresno.

    6) Looking thru each baseball team’s top 30 minor league prospects, Miami/Seattle both have 12 prospects acquired by trade, most of any team in majors.

    5) New Jersey’s Division of Gaming Enforcement says no to major league baseball’s request to not allow wagering on spring training games. Not sure why anyone would want to, but Garden State bettors can wager on Cactus and Grapefruit League games.

    4) Major League Baseball is mandating that managers send their lineup cards into the Commissioner’s Office before releasing them in the clubhouse to reporters, players before games. Baseball wants to ensure that information passed around the clubhouse and the stadium doesn’t provide an edge to gamblers.

    They’re pretending that they have no idea that gambling has been going on for a long time.

    3) Boston Red Sox pitcher Steven Wright tested positive for Growth Hormone Releasing Peptide 2 (GHRP-2), a PED, is suspended for 80 games. Why would a knuckleballer do this?

    2) According to info from the New York Gaming Commission, Rivers Casino in Schenectady generated almost double the slot machine revenue than the brand new Resorts World Catskills in Monticello.

    1) Best wishes to Alex Trebek, who announced Wednesday that he has pancreatic cancer. Hope to see him hosting Jeopardy! for many more years. Get well soon, sir.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, March 7



    Oklahoma City @ Portland

    Game 549-550
    March 7, 2019 @ 10:30 am

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oklahoma City
    116.043
    Portland
    122.851
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Portland
    by 7
    227
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Portland
    by 3 1/2
    233 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Portland
    (-3 1/2); Under

    Indiana @ Milwaukee


    Game 547-548
    March 7, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indiana
    113.478
    Milwaukee
    126.851
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 13 1/2
    224
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 10 1/2
    220 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Milwaukee
    (-10 1/2); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, March 7


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    INDIANA (42 - 23) at MILWAUKEE (48 - 16) - 3/7/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MILWAUKEE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 95-65 ATS (+23.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    INDIANA is 85-67 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 420-490 ATS (-119.0 Units) in home games since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 207-255 ATS (-73.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    MILWAUKEE is 6-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OKLAHOMA CITY (39 - 25) at PORTLAND (39 - 25) - 3/7/2019, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after a division game this season.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-40 ATS (-20.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    PORTLAND is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) in all games this season.
    PORTLAND is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
    PORTLAND is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
    PORTLAND is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games this season.
    PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    PORTLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
    PORTLAND is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    PORTLAND is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    PORTLAND is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    PORTLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
    PORTLAND is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    PORTLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PORTLAND is 7-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    PORTLAND is 7-4 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, March 7


    Pacers lost three of their last five games; Indiana is 3-5 vs spread on road since Oladipo got hurt. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Bucks lost their last two games after a 26-4 run; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five home games. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Home side won seven of last nine Indiana-Milwaukee games, with Pacers winning four of last six; Indiana is 1-3 vs spread in its last four visits to Wisconsin. Seven of last nine series games stayed under the total.

    Oklahoma City lost six of its last eight games (0-8 vs spread); they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six road games. Five of their last six games stayed under. Trailblazers won six of their last eight games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine home games. Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games. Thunder won their last three games with Portland; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Oregon. Four of last five series games stayed under the total.




    NBA

    Thursday, March 7


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Indiana Pacers
    Indiana is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
    Indiana is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games
    Indiana is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indiana's last 15 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games on the road
    Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Milwaukee Bucks
    Milwaukee is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
    Milwaukee is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
    Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games at home
    Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
    Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Indiana
    Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
    Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana

    Oklahoma City Thunder
    Oklahoma City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games
    Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games on the road
    Oklahoma City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Portland
    Oklahoma City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Portland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Portland
    Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
    Oklahoma City is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Portland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
    Portland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Portland is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games at home
    Portland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Portland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
    Portland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    Chris David

    Favorites finally came to play in the NBA last night as the ‘chalk’ went 8-2 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread. The Heat and Bulls were the two underdogs to win outright and both of those teams were receiving attention from pro bettors. Including Wednesday’s results, the underdogs still hold an impressive 64-42-2 (60%) mark versus the number since the All-Star break.

    Total bettors have watched the ‘under’ go 59-49 during this span and the low side has gone 18-5 since Monday.

    Tonight’s TNT double-header features a pair of conference matchups and three of the four teams in action are coming off loses.

    Let’s break down the card.

    Indiana (42-23 SU, 33-31-1 ATS) at Milwaukee (48-16 SU, 37-25-2 ATS)

    May pundits wrote off the Pacers after they lost Victor Oladipo to a leg injury on Jan. 23 but the club weathered the blow and has turned things around. After dropping their first four games without the All-Star, Indiana has gone 9-5 and that includes a 105-96 win over Chicago on Tuesday as a 6 ½-point home favorite.

    At the end of the day the Pacers are a .500 team without Oladipo and while they have enough experience and talent to surprise you a nightly basis, it’s hard to imagine them winning a best-of-seven series against in this year’s playoffs.

    The Bucks started the second-half of their season with five straight wins but they enter this game off back-to-back losses. Milwaukee dropped a 115-11 decision at Utah last Saturday before collapsing two days later as a heavy road favorite (-13 ½) at Phoenix, which saw the team collapse in a 114-105 setback. Mike Budenholzer’s team was outscored 38-23 by in the final 12 minutes and the Suns cashed ridiculous money-line tickets that had odds listed as high as +750 (Bet $100 to win $750).

    It was the first time this season that Milwaukee had dropped back-to-back games and one of the main reasons why the Bucks will go over their season Win Total (48 ½) with a win at home tonight.

    These teams have played three times already this season and the Bucks have captured two of the first three encounters, which includes a 118-108 win on Oct. 19 as a four-point home favorite.

    Fast forward to this matchup and the spread has more than doubled with Milwaukee opening as a 10-point favorite over Indiana. VegasInisder.com NBA expert Tony Mejia weighs in on the high number for Thursday’s game.

    He said, “With sixth man Domantas Sabonis out the past few games and starting center Myles Turner having been out before that, the Pacers have had their typical frontcourt rotation in place only once since the All-Star break ended. Kyle O’Quinn has picked up more minutes and performed reasonably well, but considering the Bucks bring the most stacked rotation of big men to the table with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Nikola Mirotic and Ersan Ilyasova all available, it’s no surprise Indiana opened as a double-digit underdog for the first time this season. The question becomes, is it too much?”

    “The Pacers had their full frontcourt rotation in place at home and didn’t have to deal with Mirotic but still ran out of gas at home on Feb. 13, losing 106-97. The Bucks have already seen Wes Matthews in Victor Oladipo’s spot and will be back at Fiserv Forum for the first time since Feb. 23, adding to their advantages. Still, laying so many points against a division rival may be a case of Milwaukee being overvalued considering it has failed to cover its past two double-digit spreads.”

    At home, the Bucks have gone 25-5 straight up and 17-13 against the spread which includes two wins since the All-Star break. Milwaukee failed to cover in both of those games and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six played at the Fiserv Forum. As double-digit home favorites this season, the Bucks have gone 12-1 SU and 8-5-1 ATS but as Mejia noted, they’ve burned bettors in their last two spots in this role.

    Indiana has been decent on the road (17-14 SU, 13-17-1 ATS) this season but the club is just 1-4 both SU and ATS in their last five trips to Milwaukee.

    The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run in the last nine home games for the Bucks, plus Indiana has watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 in its last seven away games. This series is on a 7-2 ‘under’ run and these teams have never seen a total listed in the 220s during this span.

    Oklahoma City (39-25 SU, 33-31 ATS) at Portland (39-25 SU, 37-25-1 ATS)

    The Thunder and Trail Blazers square off tonight from the Great Northwest and this would be the 4-5 matchup in the Western Conference if the season ended today. This isn’t an easy game to handicap because Portland is returning from a long successful road trip while the Thunder are in terrible form. However, OKC has won and covered all three meetings against Portland this season and will be going for the 4-0 sweep tonight.

    Mejia breaks down the fourth and final encounter. “Oklahoma City has failed to cover in its last eight games, losing six outright. The Thunder got Paul George back from a three-game absence on Tuesday due to a shoulder issue but failed to beat Minnesota and saw him shoot 8-for-25, which is disappointing since he took a break after shooting a combined 11-for-43 in losses Sacramento and Denver. He’s not right, which combined with the prolonged shooting slump Dennis Schroder (33-for-105) is on since the All-Star break ended, leaves Russell Westbrook back in the place where he’s having to do too much, which is how come he’s shot the ball 20 or more times in six of eight games during this stretch,” said Mejia.

    He added, “Westbrook is shooting 40 percent in OKC’s three wins over the Trail Blazers, averaging 27 points, 11 rebounds and 10.7 assists. Portland hasn’t been in a favorite’s role against Oklahoma City much over the last three seasons – the 3.5 points it opened laying is the second-biggest number in that span – but you can understand why given the Thunder’s current form and the fact the Blazers had won eight of their last nine at home in the series entering this season.”

    The Thunder have dropped their last two games as an underdog but they were 8-2 in their previous 10 when catching points.

    Portland went 5-2 on the seven-game road trip after the break and could’ve easily been 7-0 if it wasn’t for a close call in Toronto (119-117) and a collapse at Memphis (120-111) this past Tuesday. Winning on the road hasn’t been the staple of success for Portland, rather its dominant mark (24-8 SU, 21-11 ATS) at the Moda Center.

    Since the New Year, the club has gone 10-2 both SU and ATS at home. One of the losses did come to OKC, a 111-109 decision on Jan. 4 while the other setback was a bit of a stunner in early February to the Heat (118-108).

    Portland started out the season as a solid ‘under’ look at home but those results have balanced out and the ‘over’ is 8-0-1 in its last nine home games. OKC is 19-14 to the ‘under’ on the road and it comes into this game on a 5-1 run to the low side but Paul George sat out three of those contests. Defensively, the Thunder have allowed 121, 116 and 131 points in three road games since the break and that’s another reason why tonight’s total is hovering between 233 and 234 points.

    After this game, the Thunder will meet the Clippers at the Staples Center for a back-to-back spot on Friday while Portland entertains Phoenix on Saturday.

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    Hoop Trends - Thursday
    Vince Akins

    ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

    -- The Trail Blazers are 19-0 ATS (+5.79 ppg) with less than two days rest after a loss in which they shot better than 20% from the arc and led by double digits at the end of the first quarter.

    ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

    -- The Thunder are 0-9 ATS (-8.28 ppg) as a road dog with rest off a game as a dog when they won two straight vs their opponent.

    OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

    -- The Trail Blazers are 11-0 OU (+18.18 ppg) with rest off a road game in which they committed at least four turnovers more than their season-to-date average.

    OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

    -- The Bucks are 0-9 OU (-17.11 ppg) as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 61.75 ppg from 2-point range.

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    NBA's Top OVER referees (min. 20 games):

    1. Mousa Dagher 17-8
    2. Derek Richardson 26-14
    3. CJ Washington 22-12
    4. Haywoode Workman 25-14
    5. Michael Smith 28-16
    6. Jason Phillips 31-18
    7. Marat Kogut 32-19
    8. Leroy Richardson 27-16

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    NBA's Top UNDER referees (min. 20 games):

    1. Derrick Collins 30-16
    2. Courtney Kirkland 29-17
    t3. Mike Callahan 28-17
    t3. Tom Washington 28-17
    5. Justin Van Duyne 24-15
    t6. Brian Forte 30-20
    t6. Ron Garretson 27-18
    t6. Brandon Adair 24-1

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