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Thread: Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/4

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    Default Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/4

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, March 4

    Good Luck on day # 63 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Baseball prop bets for this season: who will have more wins?

    — Cubs (-0.5 games) vs Cardinals

    — Cubs (-12.5 games) vs White Sox

    — Mets (even) vs Braves

    — Dodgers (-19.5 games) vs Giants

    — Astros (-24.5 games) vs Rangers

    — Bronx (-2.5 games) vs Boston


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend……

    13) I don’t understand why an NFL prospect would go to the Combine but not work out; what do you have to lose? Letting teams see what you can do should only help your standing. Only thing could be if you’re got a minor injury, but lot of these kids skip working out for no reason at all.

    12) Portland Trailblazers’ star Damian Lillard once bought undrafted rookie Luis Montero $5,000 worth of dress clothes so that in games where Montero was inactive, he’d look professional while sitting on the bench.

    Thats what a team leader does.

    11) Did Bryce Harper really turn down a 4-year, $45M a year deal from the Dodgers?

    Say he took it, then four years from now, he’d need a 9-year, $200M deal to wind up with the same money he is making now (not accounting for higher California taxes).

    Could you imagine how salty football players would be if a baseball player got $45M a year, with every penny guaranteed?

    10) With news that Todd Gurley may have arthritis in his left knee that was operated on in 2014, former NFL safety Will Blackmon was on Twitter this weekend explaining how guys get arthritis in their knees after they’ve had surgery, and it bothers them thru the rest of their careers, even though those players won’t be listed on injury reports. Was interesting to listen to.

    9) Clippers 128, Knicks 107— This game was 82-46. At HALFTIME.

    8) Creighton 66, Marquette 60— Little different than the 108-104 OT game in first meeting, but apparently the Bluejays match up well with Marquette, seeing how Creighton is 2-0 against the Golden Eagles, but only 5-9 against the rest of the Big East.

    7) Iona won its last seven games to claim the MAAC regular season title; four teams tied for 2nd place a game behind- 10-8 Monmouth finished 6th. Hawks were 1-12 in their pre-conference schedule, then went 10-8 in the league, which tells us the league isn’t very good.

    6) Washington 62, Stanford 61— Huskies survived Stanford’s upset bid, but shaky weekend for them, with a loss to lowly Cal, then this. Washington’s resume isn’t great, even though they’re 23-6 (1-4 vs top 100 teams out of conference)

    5) There is a high school gym in New Castle, Indiana that seats 9,325 people; I’m not sure my high school gym back in the day could’ve seated 932 people, though they have a nicer gym here now.

    4) Golfer Keith Mitchell won the Honda Classic for his first PGA Tour win in his 40th career start. Thats life-changing stuff for the 27-year old; a two-year exemption, plus lot of FedEx points and invites to more prestigious events.

    3) Rockets 115, Celtics 104- Boston lost five of its last six games and plays Golden State next.

    2) There is an old saying “When one door closes, another one opens”; sometimes that second door is the better one. Take the case of Bucks’ coach Mike Budenholzer.

    Budenholzer coached the Atlanta Hawks for the last five years, going 213-197, but after a dismal season LY, the Hawks let him go, and Milwaukee hired him.

    Coaching Giannis Antetokounmpo has turned out to be a good gig; Budenholzer’s Bucks are 48-14, the first team to clinch a playoff spot this year, and five years of obscurity in Atlanta seems like a long time ago.

    1) Speaking of the Hawks…….

    Bulls 168, Hawks 161, 4OT— When Trae Young scored 49 points and handed out 16 assists in the Hawks’ 4-OT marathon loss Friday night, he became the first rookie since Earl Monroe in 1968 to score 49+ points and have 10+ assists in the same game.

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    Monday's Tip Sheet
    David Schwab

    As the college basketball regular season continues to grind to a close in anticipation of this year’s conference tournaments, there are a trio of games on Monday night in both the ACC and the Big 12 that could have a big impact on the final standings.

    Getting things started as part of ESPN’s Big Monday, the No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers will be on the road against Syracuse. Later that night in Lubbock, No. 11 Texas Tech will play host to the Texas Longhorns in the first Big 12 clash. As a bonus betting game in that same conference, No. 16 Kanas State will be on the road against TCU.

    No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers at Syracuse Orange (ESPN , 7:00 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Virginia -7, Total 121

    Betting Matchup

    The Cavaliers head into the final week of the regular season tied with North Carolina for the lead in the ACC at a straight-up 14-2. They started their current six-game winning streak with a eight-point win against the Tar Heels on Feb. 11 as one-point road underdogs. Virginia (26-2 SU, 21-7 ATS) is 5-1 against the spread during this same span with the total staying UNDER in four of the six games. By holding Pittsburgh to just 49 points in Saturday’s 24-point win at home, the Cavaliers’ points-allowed average stands at 54.1.

    With Saturday’s 79-54 romp over Wake Forest as a 7 ˝-point road favorite, Syracuse moved to 10-6 SU in ACC play as part of a 19-10 record overall. The Orange have covered the closing spread in four of their last six games with the total staying UNDER in five of those contests. They have a 4-2 record ATS in their last six home games. Junior guard Tyrus Battle scored 21 points against Pitt on Saturday and the defense did the rest to secure the win. He leads the team in scoring with 17.7 points per game.
    Betting Trends

    -- The Cavaliers have gone 18-7-1 in their last 26 games played on Monday. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five games against a team with a SU winning record.

    -- The Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win with the total staying UNDER in four of their last five home games.

    -- The underdog has covered the closing spread in four of the last five meetings with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in the last four meetings in Syracuse.

    Texas Longhorns at No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Texas Tech -8, Total 131 ˝

    Betting Matchup

    Texas moved to 5-4 SU in its last nine games with Saturday’s 86-69 upset against Iowa State as a slight one-point home underdog. The Longhorns have gone 8-1 ATS during this same span with the total going OVER in five of their last seven games. They are an even 8-8 SU in Big 12 play as part of an overall record of 16-13. Texas is 6-3 ATS this season on the road. Back on Jan. 12, it lost to Texas Tech at home 68-62 as a 1 ˝-point favorite. Jase Febres put up a career-high 26 points in Saturday’s win with the Longhorns’ leading scorer Kerwin Roach II out of the lineup due to an ongoing suspension.

    The Red Raiders are tied with Kansas State for the lead in the Big 12 at 12-4. They have won their last seven games SU while going 6-1 ATS with Saturday’s 81-66 victory against TCU as four-point road favorites. The total has gone OVER in Texas Tech’s las four outings. It is 24-5 SU (13-15-1 ATS) overall with a SU six-game winning streak on its home court. Sophomore guard Jarrett Culver is averaging a team-high 17.9 PPG and he has exceeded that average in four of his last five games.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Longhorns are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and the total has gone OVER in their last four games coming off an ATS win.

    -- The Red Raiders have a 4-1 record ATS in their last five home games with the total going OVER in four of those games.

    -- The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last three games between the two.

    No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Kansas State -1, Total 131 ˝

    Betting Matchup

    Kansas State (22-7 SU, 16-13 ATS) remains in contention for the Big 12 regular season title with Saturday’s 66-60 victory at home against Baylor. The Wildcats failed to cover as 6 ˝-point home favorites to slip to 2-3 ATS over their last five games. The total stayed UNDER 127 points in that win and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last four contests. Dean Wade had the hot hand against Baylor with 20 points with senior guard Barry Brown Jr. adding 10 points to the winning cause. Brown leads the Wildcats in scoring with 15.1 PPG, but he has only scored a combined 24 points in his last three starts.

    The Horned Frogs only have one win (SU and ATS) in their last six games after coming up well short in Saturday’s loss to Texas Tech. They are 6-10 SU in conference play with a 5-11 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in seven of TCU’s last 10 games overall and it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games at home. Coming into this game, it is 18-11 SU overall with a 14-15 record ATS. The Horned Frogs are averaging 75.5 PPG, but they are giving up an average of 70.9 points on defense. Last week, they gave up 104 points in an overtime loss to West Virginia.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Wildcats have covered in eight of their last 11 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five Monday games.

    -- The Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games played on Monday.

    -- Kansas State won the first meeting this season 65-55 as a four-point home favorite to improve to 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in the last four matchups.

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    Top 25 Betting Recap
    Joe Williams

    We're winding down the regular season, and the pressure isn't too much for some teams, while a few other Top 25 teams have been wilting in a big way. One of those previously highly-ranked teams that are in freefall is Nevada (26-3 SU, 16-11-1 ATS) was humming right along until Feb. 20 at San Diego State (19-10 SU, 16-12 ATS). They lost that game by eight, and lost again this past week against Utah State (24-6 SU, 16-13 ATS) in Logan over the weekend. The Wolf Pack are suddenly looking mortal away from home, and they have failed to cover each of the past four. A lack of defense is particularly concerning, as they have yielded 77.0 points per game (PPG) over the past two, more than 10 points over their season average (66.7 PPG). They have a rematch with the Aztecs coming up this week, and probably could use a big win before heading into the postseason.

    Maryland (21-9 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) has dropped two in a row, and three of the past five. A pair of losses to Michigan (26-4 SU, 17-13 ATS) is no embarrassment, but a 17-point loss at Penn State (12-17 SU, 13-14-2 ATS) certainly isn't going to wow the NCAA Tournament committee when it's time to dole out seedings. The Terps are just 5-6 SU in their past 11 games overall, and 2-5 SU/ATS in the past seven games either on the road or on a neutral-site court. Also in the Big Ten, Wisconsin (20-9 SU, 14-14-1 ATS) has been a .500 team over the past six outings, and they're 0-5-1 ATS during the span. They'll meet the equally disappointing Hawkeyes of Iowa (21-8 SU, 12-17 ATS), who have suddenly forgotten how to cover a spread. The Hawkeyes are 1-3 SU over the past four outings, and they have failed to cover six straight and eight of the past 10 contests.

    Marquette (23-6 SU, 18-11 ATS) is feeling the pressure of March, falling to a mediocre Creighton (16-13 SU, 14-14 ATS) side for their second consecutive loss and non-cover. The Golden Eagles are crumbling, going just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS across the past seven outings, too. The only thing that has been consistent for Marquette has been the 'under', hitting in six of the past eight contests.

    Cincinnati (25-4 SU, 12-17 ATS) has won five in a row since a 65-58 loss at Houston (27-2 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) on Feb. 10. The Bearcats failed to cover in that game, however, and that touched off an 0-6 ATS skid heading into the new week. The 'under' has connected in four in a row for Cincy, however, and the under is 6-1 across the past seven. Houston lost to UCF (25-4 SU, 12-17 ATS), as the Golden Knights have squeezed into the picture for a potential at-large NCAA Tournament bid. The Cougars had no answers for 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall, and the Knights will now set their sights on Cincinnati this week.

    One team not struggling straight-up or against the number is Wofford (26-4 SU, 16-11 ATS) of the SoCon, as they have wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament, and could have done enough in the regular season to nail down an at-large bid even if they stumble next week and fail to lock down an automatic bid. The Terriers went 18-0 on conference play, and they have covered eight of their past nine outings. The only losses for the Terriers came against North Carolina (24-5 SU, 17-10-2 ATS) in the season opener Nov. 6, at Oklahoma (18-11 SU, 18-8-3 ATS) on Nov. 18, at Kansas (22-7 SU, 13-16 ATS) on Dec. 4 and at Mississippi State (21-8 SU, 15-14 ATS) on Dec. 19. That loss to the Bulldogs was their last setback. They also have resume-building wins at South Carolina (14-15 SU, 12-16 ATS), as well as a pair of wins by an average of 29.5 points vs. UNC Greensboro (26-5 SU, 13-15-1 ATS), a team ranked 33rd in RPI, as well as a sweep against Wofford (24-6 SU, 11-16 ATS), a SoCon team which previously appeared in the Top 25.


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    Tournament Time
    Jim Feist

    My head is spinning, and I’m loving it!

    It’s time for six weeks of madness….

    Many times, over the last four or five decades this has been a very profitable time.

    Let’s break it down. There are four post season tournaments. The CBI, CIT, NIT and of course the granddaddy of them all the NCAA Men's Tournament.

    Before we get to all of that, the madness begins with the Conference Tournaments. This is where teams that play the teams involved have played each other, for the most part for the last six to eight weeks. By having that mix, we get to analyze different aspects to handicapping than we will in the season ending tournaments mentioned above.

    Those aspects of handicapping are mostly focused on history and familiarity. When teams play each over often, players get to know each other and get to learn each other’s strengths and weaknesses. In turn, us handicappers get to use that information in our analysis.

    The first element of handicapping I use is to make my own line, and believe me that is much easier to do, when teams that play each other have been playing in very similar power rating ranges, which is what happens when they have been playing similar opponents in their own conference.

    Revenge is a tool that is used often by cappers. It can be a very effective tool but can be overused. Some cappers have used it effectively, but they are the cappers that use it selectively. Just because team A beat team B by 20 pts does not mean team B will be able to turn the tables in the next meeting. Sometimes one team is just too good for the other and unless the superior team doesn’t show up, the weaker team will not be able to turn the tables.

    Style matters. Pace matters. There are so many things to be aware but too much info can lead to paralysis by analysis. Therefore putting together a strong database throughout the season gives you a solid foundation.

    Here it is late February/early March and the madness, so to speak has already begun. In the last few weeks, we have seen the potential No. 1 NBA draft choice, Zion Williamson of Duke go down with injury. We have also seen an increasing number on underdogs not only cover but also win outright, over high-ranking opponents. Yes, the Madness has already begun and I Love It.

    What has already begun as well is the annual debate over, who’s in and who’s out. Unfortunately, the committee will never get this right, wherein they will satisfy everyone. No one can ever satisfy everyone.

    Let’s begin with a look at the Conference Tournaments and move on from there.

    ACC:
    This is one of the very top conferences. Clearly Duke is the team to beat. If they are absent Zion, they still have enough weapons to be very dangerous. North Carolina and Virginia also stand out, but this is a very strong conference, so there are a few others that could catch fire. I believe the strongest outsider team is Florida State. My Conference Pick is Duke if Zion plays and North Carolina if he does not.

    American Athletic:
    Don’t sleep on these teams. Both Houston, who is having a remarkable season, and Cincinnati are very capable to move on and do some damage if they get in the Big Dance. Central Florida with their 7’6” center is also very capable. I don’t see all three in the Big Dance, but it could happen. My Conference Pick is Houston

    Atlantic 10:
    No one in this league looks to be able to go to the next level but one may. The winner of their tournament has a shot to get in. Davidson, Dayton or Virginia Commonwealth are the top dogs to consider. My Conference Pick is Virginia Commonwealth.

    Big 12:
    This Conference is very tight. When a conference is this tight top to bottom, upsets are very likely to happen. Kansas State and Texas Tech look the best to me with just about everyone else having a shot, except for West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Multiple teams will make the Big Dance. My Conference Pick is Texas Tech

    Big East:
    The best team in this Conference right now is Marquette. Defending National Champion Villanova is still a force but while Marquette is getting better Villanova is declining. This is a very balanced league with several dangerous clubs, with St John’s having shown signs they can beat anyone on a given day. My Conference Pick is Marquette

    Big Ten:
    Top teams are Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue. A few others, Maryland and Wisconsin, follow closely and can upset the top group on any given day. My Conference Pick Michigan State.

    Big West:
    I’m sure this conference tournament will be very competitive. The talent level is very thin, but Cal-Irvine and Cal State Fullerton should come out on top. My Conference Pick is Cal-Irvine.

    Colonial:
    Like all the Conference Tourneys, the players want to win, and this will be no exception. Hofstra has played well all season as has College of Charleston and Northeastern. My Conference Pick is Hofstra.

    Conference USA:
    Another small conference that will bring lots of excitement. This should be exciting but tough to handicap before it starts. This is where watching as many games as possible during tournament play will bring dividends. You could throw a blanket over about five teams to win this one. My conference Pick Old Dominion.

    Horizon:
    Northern Kentucky and Wright State have the advantage here, but upsets can happen here with teams like Oakland and Illinois Chicago lurking. My conference Pick Wright State.

    MAC:
    Buffalo is the clear choice here but could falter if they don’t come prepared. There are several speed bumps that could cause trouble from the other 11 teams in this group. Look out for Toledo and Bowling Green. My conference Pick Buffalo.

    Missouri Valley:
    Remember last year’s Tournament darling? That was Loyola Chicago and the magic that Sister Jean brought to the event. That was exciting and really brought a lot of fans back for more. This year Loyola will need a little more help as they are not quite the same group. There are a few teams that could derail Loyola, especially Drake, who has been a bettor’s gold mine this year. Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois are close as well. Should be a battle for the title. My Conference Pick Northern Iowa.

    Mountain West:
    As with all of these conferences, there are multiple land mines for the leaders to get past. Nevada is the clear choice here, but San Diego State, Fresno State and Utah State all have the talent to upset the Wolfpack. Nevada has the better talent by far. My conference pick is Nevada.

    PAC-12:
    What a disappointment this conference has been this year. Usually we get better quality out of the PAC-12. Washington stands out but a few others can surprise. There should only be one team going to the Big Dance from here. Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon are worth mentioning but my conference pick is Washington.

    SEC:
    Like the ACC and Big 10, this league is loaded. Kentucky, LSU and Florida stand out to me. Others could easily be in the mix. Tennessee was for a time ranked #1 but their weak non-conference slate did not toughen them up enough. It will be a tough battle for the title and several teams will make the Big Dance, but my conference pick is Kentucky.

    Sun Belt:
    Texas State is a hard team to prepare for, but these teams do know each other well. Georgia State also plays a tough brand of ball and Georgia Southern is very good. Not many hoop fans know about these clubs but beware, if they get to the Big Show, they can knock someone off. My conference pick is Texas State.

    West Coast:
    It’s all Gonzaga as it usually is for this conference. The lack of big game experience could derail the Zags as it has in the past. Be that as it may, the Zags are one of the very best teams in the nation. My conference pick is Gonzaga.

    The following Conferences I will just mention who I pick.

    Big Sky:
    Montana

    MAAC:
    Quinnipiac

    Ohio Valley:
    Belmont

    Southern:
    NC Greensboro

    Summit:
    South Dakota State

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, March 4


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    VIRGINIA (26 - 2) at SYRACUSE (19 - 10) - 3/4/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VIRGINIA is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in March games since 1997.
    SYRACUSE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VIRGINIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
    VIRGINIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    VIRGINIA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
    VIRGINIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
    VIRGINIA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    VIRGINIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    VIRGINIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
    SYRACUSE is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SYRACUSE is 2-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
    VIRGINIA is 2-1 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    KANSAS ST (22 - 7) at TCU (18 - 11) - 3/4/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a road game where the total is 130 to 134.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
    TCU is 117-158 ATS (-56.8 Units) in all home games since 1997.
    TCU is 117-158 ATS (-56.8 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
    TCU is 165-211 ATS (-67.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
    TCU is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
    TCU is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.
    TCU is 45-72 ATS (-34.2 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
    TCU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 80 points or more this season.
    TCU is 190-240 ATS (-74.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
    TCU is 116-155 ATS (-54.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
    TCU is 69-97 ATS (-37.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS ST is 4-2 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS ST is 4-2 straight up against TCU over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TEXAS (16 - 13) at TEXAS TECH (24 - 5) - 3/4/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TEXAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TEXAS is 5-2 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
    TEXAS TECH is 4-3 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    N ARIZONA (9 - 19) at MONTANA (21 - 7) - 3/4/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    N ARIZONA is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
    MONTANA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MONTANA is 3-1 against the spread versus N ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    MONTANA is 4-0 straight up against N ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SOUTHERN UTAH (14 - 13) at MONTANA ST (13 - 14) - 3/4/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MONTANA ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SOUTHERN UTAH is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTANA ST over the last 3 seasons
    MONTANA ST is 4-1 straight up against SOUTHERN UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    WEBER ST (16 - 12) at IDAHO ST (9 - 17) - 3/4/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WEBER ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    IDAHO ST is 23-37 ATS (-17.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    IDAHO ST is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WEBER ST is 3-1 against the spread versus IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons
    WEBER ST is 3-1 straight up against IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, March 4


    Virginia won its last six games, is 14-2 in ACC, winning its last five road games. Cavaliers are shooting 40.8% on arc in ACC play; how will they do in a dome? Syracuse is 3-4 in its last seven games; they’re 10-6 in ACC, splitting last four home games, with losses to Florida St/Duke. Virginia won five of its last seven games with Syracuse, winning two of three visits here- they won 59-44 here LY. Virginia is 12-2 in its last 14 games as an ACC road favorite, 5-1 this year; last five years, Orange is 5-6-1 as a home underdog, 0-1 this year.

    Kansas State won seven of its last nine games; they’re 12-4 in Big X, winning four of last five road games. TCU lost five of its last six games; they’re 6-10 in Big X, 5-3 at home- they lost two of last three home tilts. Horned Frogs were -11 in turnovers (18-7) in its65-55 loss at Kansas State Jan 19; Wildcats won six of last eight series games, winning two of last three visits to Ft Worth. K-State covered four of last five tries as a Big X road favorite (2-0 this year); under Dixon, Horned Frogs are 4-3 vs spread as home underdogs, 1-1 this year.

    Texas lost three of last five games; they’re 8-8 in Big X, losing seven of last eight road games, including a loss at SEC doormat Georgia. Texas Tech won its last seven games; they’re 12-4 in Big X, winning last six home games with four wins by 19+ points- they’re forcing turnovers 22.2% of time in Big X tilts. Tech won 68-62 at Texas Jan 12; Red Raiders won four of last six series games. Texas lost its last three visits to Lubbock, by 8-10-2 points. Texas is 5-0-1 vs spread this season as a Big X road underdog; Tech is 5-2 this season as a home favorite.

    Northern Arizona lost six of its last eight games; they’re 7-11 in Big Sky, losing three of last four road games. Montana is 14-3 in Big Sky; two of their three losses came at home. Montana shot 68% inside arc, won first meeting 86-73 in Flagstaff Dec 29; NAU led by point at the half. Montana won last eight series games; Lumberjacks lost last three visits to Missoula, by 7-18-18 points. NAU is 15-10 in its last 25 games as a road underdog, 3-4 this year; Montana is 10-7 vs spread in its last 17 games as a home favorite, 4-4 this year.

    Southern Utah is 5-3 in its last eight games, 9-9 overall in Big Sky, losing last three road games, by 11-9-16 points. Montana State won five of its last seven games; they’re 10-7 in conference, winning last three home games, by 8-14-11 points. MSU made 13-26 on arc, crushed Southern Utah 92-62 in Cedar City Dec 29; Bobcats won five of last six series games. SUU is 0-5 in Bozeman, losing by 8-5-14-7-3 points. Thunderbirds are 8-15-2 in last 25 games as a road underdog, 2-6 this year; MSU is is 5-1 vs spread this season as a Big Sky home favorite.

    Weber State lost six of its last nine games after starting 7-1 in league; Wildcats lost four of their last five road games. Idaho State lost five in row, 10 of last 12 games; they’re 5-12 in Big Sky, losing five of their last six home games. Weber shot 72% inside arc, whacked ISU 76-59 at home Jan 17; Wildcats won seven of last nine series games. Weber won its last two trips to Pocatello, by 12-7 points. Weber is 8-5 in its last 13 games as a road favorite, 4-3 this year; Bengals are 4-12 in last 16 games as a home underdog, 0-2 this year.

    Atlantic Sun tournament
    Home side won both NJIT-Florida Gulf Coast games this year; NJIT won first meeting by 12, then lost rematch by hoop 19 days ago. Highlanders lost six of last eight games, but lost at league kingpins Lipscomb/Liberty by only 4-6 points last week; they’re 3-5 on ASun road. FGCU won six of its last eight games; they’re 7-1 at home in A-Sun, upsetting Lipscomb Feb 20. Eagles are 4-13 vs teams ranked in top 200. NJIT is 0-3 in this event, losing first round games by 15-31-4 points; Eagles are 8-1 in this event the last three years, losing in Finals LY.

    North Alabama lost seven of its last nine games; this is their first year in D-I. Lions lost five of their last six road games; they’re shooting 30.3% on arc in A-Sun games. North Florida won its last six games; they’re 9-7 in A-Sun despite turning ball over 20.3% of time in league games. Ospreys won their last three home games, by 23-5-10 points. UNF swept NAU this season, winning by 29 here, by 9 on road. This is North Alabama’s first A-Sun tourney; UNF won its first round game the last four years, by 14-23-3-4 points.

    Jacksonville lost its last four games, with three of those losses by 4 or fewer points or in OT; Dolphins lost three of last four road games, losing by 13-9-14 points. J’ville is shooting only 64.4% on line in A-Sun games. Liberty won seven of its last eight games; they won their last four home games. Flames went 2-5 in last five Big South tourneys since last trip to NCAA’s, in 2013. Liberty swept Jacksonville this year, winning by 16 here, by 10 on road. Jacksonville is 1-5 in this event last five years, winning first round game LY; Liberty is in its first A-Sun tourney.

    Kennesaw State is 3-13 in A-Sun; two of their wins were by one point. Owls went 0-8 on road in A-Sun play, losing their last three away games by 23-22-17 points. KSU is shooting 39.5% inside arc in league games. Lipscomb beat SMU, TCU, lost by 4 at Louisville; Bisons are 14-2 in A-Sun, only 3-2 in last five games. Lipscomb is making 40.7% of its 3’s in conference games. KSU is 1-3 in first round games, with losses by 36-10-19 points; Lipscomb won this tourney LY; they won last four first round games, by 3-3-31-16 points.

  8. #8
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    Nov 2004
    Posts
    77,344
    Credits
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    Default

    NCAAB

    Monday, March 4


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Virginia @ Syracuse
    Virginia
    Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Syracuse
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Syracuse's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Syracuse's last 5 games at home

    Kansas State @ TCU
    Kansas State
    Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Kansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    TCU
    TCU is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games when playing Kansas State

    Texas @ Texas Tech
    Texas
    Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Texas Tech
    Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    Southern Utah @ Montana State
    Southern Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Montana State
    Southern Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montana State
    Montana State
    Montana State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Southern Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montana State's last 6 games when playing at home against Southern Utah

    Northern Arizona @ Montana
    Northern Arizona
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Northern Arizona's last 6 games when playing Montana
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Northern Arizona's last 10 games on the road
    Montana
    Montana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Northern Arizona
    Montana is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home

    Weber State @ Idaho State
    Weber State
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Weber State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Idaho State
    Weber State is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing Idaho State
    Idaho State
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Idaho State's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Idaho State's last 6 games when playing at home against Weber State


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  9. #9
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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Monday, March 4



    Weber State @ Idaho State

    Game 873-874
    March 4, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Weber State
    45.308
    Idaho State
    47.396
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Idaho State
    by 2
    141
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Weber State
    by 4
    155 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Idaho State
    (+4); Under

    Southern Utah @ Montana State


    Game 871-872
    March 4, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Southern Utah
    46.940
    Montana State
    50.983
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Montana State
    by 4
    160
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Montana State
    by 6
    156 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Southern Utah
    (+6); Over

    Northern Arizona @ Montana


    Game 869-870
    March 4, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Northern Arizona
    44.639
    Montana
    56.622
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Montana
    by 12
    145
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Montana
    by 15
    151 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Northern Arizona
    (+15); Under

    Texas @ Texas Tech


    Game 867-868
    March 4, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Texas
    72.370
    Texas Tech
    76.402
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Texas Tech
    by 4
    138
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Texas Tech
    by 8 1/2
    133 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Texas
    (+8 1/2); Over

    Kansas State @ TCU


    Game 865-866
    March 4, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas State
    71.331
    TCU
    62.971
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas State
    by 8 1/2
    142
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas State
    by 1 1/2
    132 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas State
    (-1 1/2); Over

    Virginia @ Syracuse


    Game 863-864
    March 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Virginia
    79.050
    Syracuse
    70.804
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Virginia
    by 8
    114
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Virginia
    by 6 1/2
    124
    Dunkel Pick:
    Virginia
    (-6 1/2); Under

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