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Thread: Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 3/4

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    Default Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 3/4

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, March 4

    Good Luck on day # 63 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Baseball prop bets for this season: who will have more wins?

    — Cubs (-0.5 games) vs Cardinals

    — Cubs (-12.5 games) vs White Sox

    — Mets (even) vs Braves

    — Dodgers (-19.5 games) vs Giants

    — Astros (-24.5 games) vs Rangers

    — Bronx (-2.5 games) vs Boston


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend……

    13) I don’t understand why an NFL prospect would go to the Combine but not work out; what do you have to lose? Letting teams see what you can do should only help your standing. Only thing could be if you’re got a minor injury, but lot of these kids skip working out for no reason at all.

    12) Portland Trailblazers’ star Damian Lillard once bought undrafted rookie Luis Montero $5,000 worth of dress clothes so that in games where Montero was inactive, he’d look professional while sitting on the bench.

    Thats what a team leader does.

    11) Did Bryce Harper really turn down a 4-year, $45M a year deal from the Dodgers?

    Say he took it, then four years from now, he’d need a 9-year, $200M deal to wind up with the same money he is making now (not accounting for higher California taxes).

    Could you imagine how salty football players would be if a baseball player got $45M a year, with every penny guaranteed?

    10) With news that Todd Gurley may have arthritis in his left knee that was operated on in 2014, former NFL safety Will Blackmon was on Twitter this weekend explaining how guys get arthritis in their knees after they’ve had surgery, and it bothers them thru the rest of their careers, even though those players won’t be listed on injury reports. Was interesting to listen to.

    9) Clippers 128, Knicks 107— This game was 82-46. At HALFTIME.

    8) Creighton 66, Marquette 60— Little different than the 108-104 OT game in first meeting, but apparently the Bluejays match up well with Marquette, seeing how Creighton is 2-0 against the Golden Eagles, but only 5-9 against the rest of the Big East.

    7) Iona won its last seven games to claim the MAAC regular season title; four teams tied for 2nd place a game behind- 10-8 Monmouth finished 6th. Hawks were 1-12 in their pre-conference schedule, then went 10-8 in the league, which tells us the league isn’t very good.

    6) Washington 62, Stanford 61— Huskies survived Stanford’s upset bid, but shaky weekend for them, with a loss to lowly Cal, then this. Washington’s resume isn’t great, even though they’re 23-6 (1-4 vs top 100 teams out of conference)

    5) There is a high school gym in New Castle, Indiana that seats 9,325 people; I’m not sure my high school gym back in the day could’ve seated 932 people, though they have a nicer gym here now.

    4) Golfer Keith Mitchell won the Honda Classic for his first PGA Tour win in his 40th career start. Thats life-changing stuff for the 27-year old; a two-year exemption, plus lot of FedEx points and invites to more prestigious events.

    3) Rockets 115, Celtics 104- Boston lost five of its last six games and plays Golden State next.

    2) There is an old saying “When one door closes, another one opens”; sometimes that second door is the better one. Take the case of Bucks’ coach Mike Budenholzer.

    Budenholzer coached the Atlanta Hawks for the last five years, going 213-197, but after a dismal season LY, the Hawks let him go, and Milwaukee hired him.

    Coaching Giannis Antetokounmpo has turned out to be a good gig; Budenholzer’s Bucks are 48-14, the first team to clinch a playoff spot this year, and five years of obscurity in Atlanta seems like a long time ago.

    1) Speaking of the Hawks…….

    Bulls 168, Hawks 161, 4OT— When Trae Young scored 49 points and handed out 16 assists in the Hawks’ 4-OT marathon loss Friday night, he became the first rookie since Earl Monroe in 1968 to score 49+ points and have 10+ assists in the same game.

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    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Monday, March 4


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    EDMONTON (28-30-0-7, 63 pts.) at BUFFALO (30-27-0-8, 68 pts.) - 3/4/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    EDMONTON is 27-34 ATS (-20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    BUFFALO is 21-20 ATS (+45.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
    BUFFALO is 246-246 ATS (+501.3 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
    BUFFALO is 39-68 ATS (+133.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    BUFFALO is 1-10 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BUFFALO is 4-1 (+4.8 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    BUFFALO is 4-1-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)

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    TORONTO (40-21-0-4, 84 pts.) at CALGARY (41-17-0-7, 89 pts.) - 3/4/2019, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 41-24 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
    CALGARY is 15-5 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
    CALGARY is 17-9 ATS (+5.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    TORONTO is 9-2 ATS (+6.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
    TORONTO is 11-5 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    CALGARY is 10-17 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    CALGARY is 15-32 ATS (+49.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 3-2 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 3-2-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)

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    NHL

    Monday, March 4


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    Trend Report
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    Edmonton Oilers
    Edmonton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Edmonton is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
    Edmonton is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    Buffalo Sabres
    Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    Buffalo is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
    Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Buffalo's last 12 games at home
    Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
    Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton

    Toronto Maple Leafs
    Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
    Toronto is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 12 games on the road
    Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Calgary
    Toronto is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Flames
    Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Calgary is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
    Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Calgary is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Calgary's last 12 games at home
    Calgary is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Calgary is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto


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    Grand Salami - March


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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Monday, March 4



    Edmonton @ Buffalo

    Game 17-18
    March 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Edmonton
    11.681
    Buffalo
    10.030
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 1 1/2
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Buffalo
    -125
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (+105); Over

    Toronto @ Calgary


    Game 19-20
    March 4, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    11.086
    Calgary
    12.228
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 1
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    -135
    6 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-135); Under

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    Can Maple Leafs and Flames reverse a betting trend and this week’s NHL odds and best bets
    Monty Andrews

    Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs take on Johnny Gaudreau and the Calgary Flames in a matchup of two of the NHL's best offensive teams.

    Two of the most offensively gifted teams in the league meet Monday night in Alberta – but the Toronto Maple Leafs and Calgary Flames have seen a fair share of low-scoring games in their recent head-to-head history. Will there be a trend change? That's one of the burning questions bettors have heading into early-week NHL action, which includes the Panthers and Penguins resuming a head-to-head series that has been dominated by the home team, and the Blues and Ducks facing off with the road team having ruled the day of late. Here are the top matchups and betting trends to monitor over the next few days of hockey action.

    Bucking the Trend

    You wouldn't know it by their recent history, but the Maple Leafs and Flames own two of the most prolific offenses in the league going into their Monday night encounter at Scotiabank Saddledome. The teams own nearly identical goals-per-game averages, with Toronto entering the week at 3.58 goals per outing (third-best in the league) and Calgary right behind at 3.57. So there's a decent chance these teams will end a trend that has seen them combine for five or fewer goals in each of their previous five meetings dating back to the start of the 2016-17 season.

    Kings of Defense

    The Los Angeles Kings aren't likely to be playoff participants this season, but they've still managed to be a decent defensive team – and that has been particularly true in recent meetings against Montreal as the Canadiens visit L.A. on Tuesday. Not only has Los Angeles won three consecutive head-to-head meetings with the Canadiens, it has also held Montreal to just one goal over that span. That includes back-to-back shutouts at Bell Centre, in which the Kings outscored the Habs by a 7-0 margin. Montreal has also lost four of its previous five visits to Staples Center.

    Home Cookin'

    Sticking with the home team whenever the Florida Panthers and Pittsburgh Penguins face off has been a lucrative approach for NHL bettors. The teams renew acquaintances Tuesday night in Pennsylvania, and if past history is any indication, the Penguins are going to be a popular straight-up pick. The home side has won three consecutive meetings and is a red-hot 24-10 SU since late in the 2008-09 season. And to help strengthen the case, the Panthers enter the new week having dropped four consecutive games overall while boasting a dismal 12-14-5 record away from BB&T Center.

    Road Warriors

    While Pittsburgh and Florida have seen the home team reign supreme over the past decade, the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks have seen their recent head-to-head encounters belong to the visitors – and that bodes well for the Blues, who make the trek to Honda Center for a Wednesday night showdown. The road side has prevailed in each of the previous five meetings between the Western Conference foes, a stretch that includes four-straight victories by the underdog. Also, the home team has scored more than two goals just once in the past eight encounters.

    Goalie Profile: Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak, Boston Bruins

    Even with starting netminders playing fewer games on average than they have in past years, you don't see many true goalie tandems these days. And yet, the Boston Bruins have made it work, with Rask and Halak nearly splitting the season workload down the middle due to a variety of factors. Both netminders have been sensational so far in 2018-19, boasting identical 2.29 goals-against averages with Halak's .924 save percentage only a fraction higher than Rask's .922 mark. They've guided the Bruins to the best GAA in the league (1.71) since the end of the All-Star break.

    Injury Update: F Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

    The Lightning have been remarkably fortunate to have avoided many significant injuries this season – but they could be without one of their top forwards for Tuesday's marquee encounter with the Winnipeg Jets. Stamkos is nursing an upper-body injury that has left his status for Tampa's next game in doubt; the former No. 1 overall pick is enjoying a sensational season with 33 goals and 44 assists through 66 games. He also victimized the Jets in the teams' previous meeting this season, recording a goal and an assist in a 5-4 Winnipeg overtime victory.

    Hat Trick Trends

    While there's a clear top five in the Stanley Cup pecking order from an odds perspective, bettors shouldn't rule out last year's finals participants. The defending-champion Washington Capitals are tied with Nashville for the best odds of any second-tier contender at +1,400, while the Vegas Golden Knights are close behind at +1,600.

    The Flames have established themselves as a clear No. 3 option in terms of value returned this season. Calgary sits at +8.44 units won through the weekend's games, sitting a distant third behind the Lightning (+14.83 units) and the New York Islanders (+11.85 units). The Flames are one of only four teams to have returned positive value both at home and on the road.

    As for the best "break-even" option, that has become a two-team race. The San Jose Sharks are the closest to the break even mark on the positive side of the ledger, having returned a total of 0.53 units (1.30 at home, -0.77 on the road). The Dallas Stars are nearly as far from the middle on the minus side, with a loss of 0.52 units (2.83 at home, -3.35 on the road).

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