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Thread: AAF Week 4

  1. #1
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    Default AAF Week 4

    AAF Week 4 preview, odds, picks and a best bet
    Brandon DuBreuil

    Fans of the 0-3 Atlanta Legends have had enough of Matt Simms and are calling for former Georgia star Aaron Murray.

    It's Week 4 from the Alliance of American Football (AAF) and we're ready to dive into the betting odds and trends in hopes of making some money from a league where some pretty interesting trends are starting to develop.

    Week 3 Betting Recap

    Another ho-hum week for a betting standpoint. My leans went 2-2, hitting on the Under in the Memphis-Orlando game and on San Diego -2.5. I missed on Arizona -4.5 as the Hotshots lost their starting quarterback to injury and on Atlanta +6.5 as the Legends seem to enjoy suffering through the Matt Simms experiment.

    My best bet of Over 43.5 in the San Antonio-San Diego game also fell short in what was probably the worst beat of the weekend for the second consecutive week. The two teams combined for 30 in the first half but then mustered just 12 in the second.

    Season totals: Leans 4-4, Best Bets 0-2

    AAF Betting Trends

    The Under is 9-3.
    Home teams are 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the spread.
    Home teams have gone 2-2 ATS in each of the last two weeks.
    Favorites are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS.
    No double-digit favorites have covered the spread yet.

    SAN DIEGO FLEET (2-1) at MEMPHIS EXPRESS (0-3)

    Opening line: San Diego -6.5, O/U 41.5

    TV: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, B/R Live

    San Diego pushed itself into the title conversation with its dominating win over San Antonio last Sunday night and its championship odds fell to 5/1. The Fleet now head to the road after two home games and QB Philip Nelson makes his first road start.

    Memphis has hope and energy after coach Mike Singletary finally benched Christian Hackenberg and brought on Zach Mettenberger after halftime in Week 3. The former LSU standout threw for 120 yards and two touchdowns on 9-of-12 passing as the Express outscored the Apollos 17-12 in the second half.

    Lean:
    Under 41.5. Both teams have played all three of their games Under the total. San Diego hits the road for the first time since Week 1 and, as mentioned above, Nelson makes his first road start. Memphis' offense looked much better under Mettenberger, but the Fleet have an underrated defense that is giving up just 12.7 points per game.


    ORLANDO APOLLOS (3-0) at SALT LAKE STALLIONS (1-2)

    Opening line: Orlando -4.5, O/U 44.5

    TV: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

    Orlando is still the unquestioned top team in the AAF but it did show signs of being beatable as Memphis put up an unexpectedly tough fight. Garrett Gilbert is the No.1 QB in the league and has 198 more passing yards than the next closest at the position. The Apollos take to the road for the second time this season after winning in San Antonio 37-29 in Week 2.

    Salt Lake’s win last week was a pivotal moment in its season. Quarterback Josh Woodrum showed he deserves to be the starter, going 22-for-31 for 178 yards and a touchdown in the 23-15 win over Arizona. Running backs Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver each had rushing touchdowns as the Stallions had 31 rushing attempts.

    Lean:
    Salt Lake +4.5. Orlando should be a popular public play this weekend but let's remember that the Apollos are still living in a hotel in Jacksonville and bussing to Georgia to practice every day because of the worker's compensation rule that doesn't cover pro athletes in Florida. They are basically always on the road, which should start to wear on them after a while. Other reasons I like Salt Lake is the altitude (the Stallions have been at home for two straight weeks while Orlando makes its first trip to Utah) and the weather (Orlando has played all of its games in Florida or indoors and Saturday night looks wet and cold in Salt Lake).


    SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (1-2) at BIRMINGHAM IRON (3-0)

    Opening line: Birmingham -7.5, O/U 39.5

    TV: Sunday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

    Here we have a team on the rise against a team falling fast. San Antonio looked to have one of the top defenses in the league after Week 1 but has given up 68 points in the last two weeks. Offensively, the Commanders scored eight points on their first offensive play of the game last week but then only managed a field goal for the rest of the game. Quarterback Logan Woodside threw two picks and now has the worst quarterback rating and completion rate in the league. Backup Marquise Williams got some snaps last week and could be the starter before we know it.

    Birmingham doesn’t play exciting football but the Iron are undefeated, though it should be noted that their wins have come over Memphis, Salt Lake, and Atlanta, who have combined for a grand total of one win. There’s no doubting that the defense is legitimate (21 points against in three games), however, and Trent Richardson is very good at converting goal-line opportunities (six touchdowns despite just 2.5 yards per carry).

    Lean:
    Under 39.5. Before the lines came out, I told myself that if the line opened at 40 or more I'd be taking the Under and, well, it's close enough. As mentioned above, San Antonio seems to be in a freefall after a nice Week 1 and now travel east to Birmingham after having played (and putting up just 11 points) in San Diego last Sunday night. The Iron defense is giving up just seven points per game and, although it was against weaker competition, San Antonio seems to fit that description as well. One other factor: If Woodside gets pulled, which is a definite possibility, Williams loves to run which should keep the clock ticking.


    ATLANTA LEGENDS (0-3) at ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (2-1)

    Opening line: Arizona -12.5, O/U 41.5

    TV: Sunday, 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

    Atlanta is 0-3 and has been outscored 92-30. Quarterback Matt Simms is third in the league in passing yards with 614 but has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions and Legends fans were chanting for backup (and former Georgia star) Aaron Murray towards the end of Week 3’s home loss to Birmingham.

    One thing to note is that Atlanta’s quarterbacks coach and play-caller Rich Bartel resigned just before the Week 3 loss and this likely had an effect on their offensive performance. The Legends have now lost Brad Childress, Michael Vick, and Bartel as coaches already this season.

    For Arizona, it’s all about whether quarterback John Wolford plays and he looks on track to do so after looking great at practice on Wednesday. He left last week’s game with a back strain and if for some reason he can't go, Trevor Knight will likely get the call — he went 8-for-17 for 95 yards in relief last week.

    Lean:
    Over 41.5 — assuming Wolford is starting. I'm giving Atlanta a bit of a pass for last week's performance after learning about Bartel's resignation just before the weekend. I expect them to put up around 18 points. I also love that Arizona returns home after a two-week hiatus to Sun Devil Stadium where they scored 38 in Week 1 against Salt Lake.


    WEEK 4 BEST BET

    For our Week 4 Best Bet we head to Salt Lake for the Under 44.5 in the Apollos-Stallions game. I'm starting to sound like a broken record here with my third Under pick of the weekend but Unders are winning at a 75 percent clip. In addition to the reasons I lean Salt Lake 4.5 above, here are a couple more. Orlando scored 37 in its first road game this season but that was in a dome. This one is outside at night and there is snow and freezing rain in the forecast. The Apollos also showed that maybe they want to be a running team last week as they even had Gilbert rush seven times for 43 yards. Ditto with Salt Lake and its 31 rushing attempts.

  2. #2
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    AAF Betting Stats following Week 3:

    Favorites: 11-1 Straight Up & 8-4 Against The Spread
    Home Teams: 9-3 Straight Up & 8-4 Against The Spread
    Over/Under: 3-9

  3. #3
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    Armadillo: AAF Week 4

    — Home teams are 8-4 vs spread thru three weeks.
    — Thru three weeks, favorites are 9-3 vs spread.
    — Under is 7-4-1 thru three weeks.
    — With no kickoffs after scores in this league, averaging starting field position will be more similar than NFL games.

    San Diego (2-1) @ Memphis (0-3)
    — San Diego won its last two games, running ball for 185/202 yards; both of those games were at home- they lost 15-6 at San Antonio in their opener. Fleet scored five TD’s on 18 drives in last two games with Minnesota Gopher alum Nelson at QB- they’re 10 for last 23 on 3rd down. Memphis is 0-3 but played better LW once Mettenberger subbed in at QB. Express lost their last two games by total of six points- they gave up 209-183 rushing yards the last two weeks. Under is 3-0 in Memphis games, 2-1 in Fleet games.

    Orlando (3-0) @ Salt Lake City (1-2)
    — Spurrier’s Apollos are 3-0, winning only road game 37-29 at San Antonio (trailed 18-17 at half). Orlando has six INTs already, is +5 in turnovers- they scored 77 points in winning first two games, struggling in LW’s 21-17 win over winless Memphis. Home side won all three Salt Lake City games; Stallions won their home opener 23-15 LW, but Arizona outgained them by 11 yards. SLC allowed 12-15 points in last two games, giving up only two TD’s on 24 drives; they’re 7-28 on third down last two games. Under is 2-1 for both sides.

    San Antonio (1-2) @ Birmingham (3-0)
    — Commanders allowed 37-31 points in losing last two games, after holding San Diego without a TD in the opener; they were 1-12 on 3rd down LW, after converting 21-37 in first two games. Two of their three games went over the total. Iron won its first three games, but they’ve also played Atlanta/Memphis, probably the two worst teams. Birmingham outscored its first three opponents 48-6 in 2nd half of games; they’re +4 in turnovers, allowed two TD’s on 35 drives. Under is 2-0-1 in their games this season.

    Atlanta (0-3) @ Arizona (2-1)
    — Legends lost their first three games, by 34-12-16 points; LW, they were inside Birmingham’s red zone four times, but scored only 6 points. Atlanta scored two TD’s on 32 drives this season; they’re -5 in turnovers, throwing seven INT’s in three games. Arizona was held to 266 yards in Salt Lake LW; Hotshots haven’t had a takeaway in their last two games, after having three in their opener- they ran ball for 358 yards in first two games, but were held to 66 LW. Under is 2-0-1 in Atlanta games, 2-1 in Arizona games.

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    AAF Week 4 betting recap, takeaways, and a Week 5 lines preview: Unders still make money
    Brandon DuBreuil

    Aaron Murray finally got his chance and led the Atlanta Legends to their first win of the season.

    We have four weeks in the books in the inaugural season of the Alliance of American Football (AAF). There were a couple of upsets this past weekend, leaving Orlando as the only remaining undefeated team and the West Division as wide open as ever.

    AAF Week 4 Scores

    San Diego Fleet 23 at Memphis Express 26

    Memphis covers as a home underdog and the game goes Over.

    Orlando Apollos 20 at Salt Lake Stallions 11

    Orlando covers as a road favorite and the game goes Under.

    San Antonio Commanders 12 at Birmingham Iron 11

    San Antonio covers as a road underdog and the game goes Under.

    Atlanta Legends 14 at Arizona Hotshots 11

    Atlanta covers as a double-digit road underdog and the game goes Under.

    Week 4 Betting Takeaways

    Unders are money


    It was yet another profitable weekend for Under bettors as the total fell short of the number in three of the four games. The Under has now hit in 12-of-16 games. Weather certainly played a factor this past weekend as the Apollos-Stallions game was played in the snow and the Commanders-Iron had to deal with very wet conditions.

    Home-team trend fading

    Home teams dominated the league early on but that trend seems to be evening out. Home teams covered in just 1-of-4 games in Week 4 after going 2-2 ATS in Week 2 and Week 3. Home teams are now 10-6 straight up and 9-7 against the spread.

    Nelson out indefinitely

    San Diego lost starting quarterback Philip Nelson to a shoulder injury in the second quarter of its loss to Memphis and he will not be available in Week 5. Alex Ross replaced Nelson but was pretty awful, going 8-of-18 for 80 yards, a touchdown, an interception and two lost fumbles. Mike Bercovici, the Fleet’s Week 1 starter, is also an option to start next week.

    This is unfortunate for San Diego and the league as a whole as the AAF simply cannot afford to lose quarterback talent. San Diego general manager Dave Boller said the team would have to add another QB and would be looking to see who's available...let the Johnny Manziel rumors begin.

    It’s Murray time!

    Atlanta’s Aaron Murray finally got his chance to play after starting QB Matt Simms cut his hand on the first possession on Sunday night and he was, predictably, a huge upgrade, going 20-of-33 for 254 yards while also rushing seven times for 54 yards and leading the Legends to their first win. Nothing has been announced yet but it would be shocking if Murray doesn’t get the start in Week 5.

    Bad beat of the week

    The bad beat of the week definitely goes to San Diego Fleet backers. San Diego jumped out to a 20-6 lead but then the offense was terrible under Nelson’s replacement Ross as he gave the ball away three times in 2.5 quarters. The Fleet managed just three points in the second half and wound up losing outright. My apologies if you had money on San Diego.

    AAF Week 5 Betting Preview

    The AAF lines for Week 5 likely won’t be released until about Wednesday, but I’ll take my weekly shot at predicting the Week 5 lines and totals.

    Orlando at Birmingham (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)

    Projected line: Orlando -4.5, 39.5

    Salt Lake at San Diego (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

    Projected line: Salt Lake -2.5, O/U 38.5

    Memphis at Atlanta (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET)

    Projected line: Atlanta -1, O/U 39

    San Antonio at Arizona (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)

    Projected line: Arizona -9, O/U 40

    AAF Standings

    East Division


    Orlando Apollos 4-0
    Birmingham Iron 3-1
    Memphis Express 1-3
    Atlanta Legends 1-3


    West Division

    Arizona Hotshots 2-2
    San Diego Fleet 2-2
    San Antonio Commanders 2-2
    Salt Lake Stallions 1-3

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