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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/28

  1. #1
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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/28

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, February 28

    Good Luck on day # 59 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Odds for the Honda Classic this week:

    5-1— Justin Thomas

    10-1— Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka

    16-1— Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott

    18-1— Gary Woodland

    20-1— Webb Simpson, Cameron Smith

    33-1— Daniel Berger, Emiliano Grillo, Luke List


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…..

    13) Here’s a question for us to consider; if Zion Williamson doesn’t play anymore this season. where do you seed Duke in the NCAA’s? How good are the Blue Devils without him?

    I don’t have an answer to this, other than if he is indeed out for the year, Duke won’t say so before Selection Sunday, because that would diminish their seeding, maybe a couple of lines?

    12) Virginia Tech 77, Duke 72— There is a kid on Duke who has missed 28 3-pointers in a row, and his 3-point %age (26.5%) is still better than Duke’s PG, Tre Jones (24.6%). Blue Devils are shooting 29.6% on the arc in conference games, 30.7% for the season.

    11) Philadelphia Eagles are not franchise-tagging QB Nick Foles; he will be become a free agent, and I’m guessing a really highly sought-after one.

    10) Villanova 67, Marquette 61— Two best teams in Big East hooked up here; chances are they’ll meet again on March 16, in Big East tournament final. Kid named Samuels on Villanova was averaging four points a game; he had 29 points in this one.

    9) Tennessee 73, Ole Miss 71— Vols are tied with Kentucky/LSU atop the SEC; they host the Wildcats in Knoxville Saturday.

    8) Baylor 84, Texas 83 OT— Horrific loss for Longhorns, who led by 19 with 14:56 left to play; leading 83-82, they turned ball over on an inbounds play with 0:07 left. Not good.

    7) Trailblazers 97, Celtics 92— Boston is 1-8 vs spread if they played the night before.

    6) West Virginia 104, TCU 96, 3OT— These teams battled it out for 55:00 Tuesday night and the Horned Frogs went home with a costly loss. West Virginia is having a lousy season but Derek Culver is developing into a pretty good player- he had 22 points, 21 rebounds in this game.

    5) Iowa basketball coach Fran McCaffery got suspended for two games after he berated a ref after the Hawkeyes’ 90-70 loss at Ohio State Tuesday. If you’re going to berate a ref and curse him out multiple times, better not to do it where media people can hear you.

    4) Was wondering about this today so I looked it up; Wayne Gretzky is the NHL’s all-time leader in empty net goals, with 56.

    Marion Hossa is 2nd on this list, with 40, followed by Mario Lemieux and Alex Ovechkin, with 33 each.

    3) Heat 126, Warriors 125— Dwyane Wade banked in the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer after his first shot was blocked. Miami is a half-game out of the last playoff spot in the East.

    2) On Tuesday, Mets’ OF Brandon Nimmo ate undercooked chicken that he cooked himself and got sick- the team sent him home from their game on Wednesday. Mets’ plan to teach him how to cook. Ordering out would also seem to be a good idea.

    Oy.

    1) 80-year old Bobby Knoop retired this week as a coach/instructor with the Angels; he was in baseball for 53 years, playing nine years in the major leagues, mostly in Anaheim. He made one All-Star Game and won three Golden Gloves.

    Why bring this up? Because when I was a kid playing in Little League, a long, long time ago, I used a baseball glove signed by Bobby Knoop. I sucked at baseball, but wasn’t a bad fielder at least, and that glove was awesome. So thank you Bobby Knoop, and enjoy your retirement!!!

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, February 28


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    MINNESOTA (29 - 32) at INDIANA (40 - 22) - 2/28/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MINNESOTA is 380-443 ATS (-107.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
    MINNESOTA is 69-98 ATS (-38.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
    INDIANA is 83-66 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 174-136 ATS (+24.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
    INDIANA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 55-40 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    GOLDEN STATE (43 - 18) at ORLANDO (28 - 34) - 2/28/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 25-35 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 23-32 ATS (-12.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 19-30 ATS (-14.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    ORLANDO is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 3-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 5-0 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CLEVELAND (14 - 47) at NEW YORK (13 - 48) - 2/28/2019, 7:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 44-62 ATS (-24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW YORK is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW YORK is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 7-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 8-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MIAMI (27 - 33) at HOUSTON (36 - 25) - 2/28/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
    MIAMI is 43-28 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 152-116 ATS (+24.4 Units) in February games since 1996.
    MIAMI is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
    MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
    MIAMI is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    MIAMI is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    MIAMI is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
    HOUSTON is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MIAMI is 4-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    UTAH (34 - 26) at DENVER (42 - 18) - 2/28/2019, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games this season.
    DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    DENVER is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
    UTAH is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    UTAH is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    UTAH is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    UTAH is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 5-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 5-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PHILADELPHIA (39 - 22) at OKLAHOMA CITY (38 - 22) - 2/28/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-20 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 130-104 ATS (+15.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 156-120 ATS (+24.0 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
    PHILADELPHIA is 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 73-53 ATS (+14.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 68-47 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 51-65 ATS (-20.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after a division game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2019 at 01:32 PM.

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    NBA

    Thursday, February 28


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    Trend Report
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    Minnesota Timberwolves
    Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
    Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Minnesota's last 23 games when playing Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Indiana
    Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
    Minnesota is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Indiana
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing on the road against Indiana
    Indiana Pacers
    Indiana is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Indiana is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Indiana's last 23 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    Indiana is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indiana's last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota

    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    Golden State is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
    Golden State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Golden State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games on the road
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
    Golden State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    Golden State is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State's last 10 games when playing on the road against Orlando
    Orlando Magic
    Orlando is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Orlando is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
    Orlando is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
    Orlando is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Golden State
    Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Orlando's last 10 games when playing at home against Golden State

    Cleveland Cavaliers
    Cleveland is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
    Cleveland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Cleveland is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
    Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing New York
    Cleveland is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing New York
    Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
    Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Cleveland's last 21 games when playing on the road against New York
    New York Knicks
    New York is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games
    New York is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New York's last 16 games
    New York is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games at home
    New York is 2-18 SU in its last 20 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New York's last 11 games at home
    New York is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Cleveland
    New York is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing Cleveland
    New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of New York's last 21 games when playing at home against Cleveland

    Miami Heat
    Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
    Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games on the road
    Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
    Miami is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Houston
    Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston Rockets
    Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
    Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Houston is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
    Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
    Houston is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Miami
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
    Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing at home against Miami

    Philadelphia 76ers
    Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
    Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games
    Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing Oklahoma City
    Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
    Oklahoma City Thunder
    Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Oklahoma City is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Oklahoma City's last 21 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games
    Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games at home
    Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 12 games when playing Philadelphia
    Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Utah is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Utah's last 10 games
    Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
    Utah is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Utah's last 15 games when playing Denver
    Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Utah is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver Nuggets
    Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
    Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 11 games at home
    Denver is 7-13-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Utah
    Denver is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 15 games when playing Utah
    Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Utah


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2019 at 01:33 PM.

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, February 28


    Minnesota won four of its last six games; Wolves are 5-3 vs spread if they played night before, 3-1 in last four road games. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Pacers are 2-3 in their last five games; they’re 5-1 vs spread in last six home games. Over is 3-1 in their last four games. Indiana is 8-2 if it played night before. Road team won seven of last nine Minnesota-Indiana games; Timberwolves covered their last four trips to Indiana. Four of last six series games stayed under.

    Golden State lost three of its last five games; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Warriors are 3-5 vs spread if they played night before. Magic won six of its last eight games; they’re 8-10 as a home underdog this year. Orlando’s last three home games went over. Golden State won its last ten games with the Magic, covering last four visits to Orlando (over 3-1); road team covered eight of last ten series games.

    Cavaliers are 3-2 in their last five games; they’re 2-8 vs spread in last ten road games. Four of their last five games went over New York won three of its last four games after an 0-18 skid; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five home games. Under is 13-5 in their last 18 games. Knicks lost eight of last ten games with Cleveland; three of last four series games went over the total. Cavaliers covered three of their last four visits to Manhattan.

    Miami lost nine of its last 12 games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven road games. Under is 12-7 in their last 19 games. Heat is 4-2 vs spread on road if they played night before. Rockets won their last three games; they covered one of last seven home games. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Houston is 3-4 vs spread if it played night before. Miami/Houston split their last ten games; Heat covered four of last five. Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.

    Jazz won four of their last six games; they’re 5-1 vs spread in last six road games. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Nuggets won their last five games (4-1 vs spread); they covered eight of their last nine home games. Under is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Home side won last ten Utah-Denver games; Jazz are 0-4 vs spread in last four visits to Denver. Eight of last ten series games stayed under.

    Embiid is still out for Philly. 76ers won five of their last seven games; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five road games. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Oklahoma City lost three of its last four games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight home games. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Philly lost its last ten games with the Thunder (under 7-3); they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to Oklahoma.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2019 at 01:34 PM.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    Chris David

    Dogs Strike Back

    After watching the favorites go 11-3 straight up and 9-5 against the spread on Monday and Tuesday, the underdogs stormed back Wednesday with a 6-5 SU and 9-1-1 ATS mark. The Heat led the charge with a stunning 126-125 win over Golden State as a 9 ½-point home underdog. While Miami was certainly the right side as it led throughout the game, any bettors taking them on the money-line at 4/1 (Bet $100 to win $400) have watched the below clip a few times.

    The Heat weren’t the only team snapping their losing skid last night. The Spurs got on track with a 105-93 win over Detroit as a 4 ½-point home favorite and San Antonio was the only ‘chalk’ to cash on Wednesday.

    We did see all three late-night favorites win outright last night but the underdogs saved face against the spread and that’s been a common theme lately. Since we returned from the All-Star break last Thursday, favorites have gone 34-21 SU while underdogs are 33-21-1 ATS. The totals market has leaned slightly to the ‘over’ (28-27) during this span and that includes a 6-5 lean to the high side last night.

    Back-to-Back Spots

    Six teams will be playing on no rest Wednesday and I’ve listed their production (SU, ATS, O/U) when facing back-to-back spots along with trends to watch as well.

    Minnesota (2-6 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U) at Indiana (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-7 O/U):
    Both clubs coming off losses last night as the Timberwolves collapsed late at Atlanta in overtime while Indiana also came up short in a 110-101 loss at Dallas. The Timberwolves have covered four straight games on no rest despite going 1-3 straight up. The Pacers have been a great look in back-to-back spots and even better at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on no rest. Minnesota has won and covered three of the last four meetings in this series, including a 101-91 win as a two-point home favorite on Oct. 22, 2018.

    Golden State (6-2 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U) at Orlando:
    The Warriors got caught napping in Miami last night and are now listed as road favorites (-6) in this spot. Golden State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games on no rest despite going 4-2 straight up. The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and could easily be 0-8 if the Hornets show up for the second-half of their encounter this past Monday. Orlando played down to its competition again on Tuesday as it lost to the Knicks 108-103 as 7 ½-point road favorites. However, the Magic are 3-0 both SU and ATS in its last three as an underdog which includes last Sunday's win at Toronto.

    Miami (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U) at Houston (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U):
    The Heat haven’t faced many back-to-back sets this season and only two in February, both decisions were losses and the ‘under’ cashed in each contest as well. Houston has won and covered three of its last four games on no rest, all three wins came by double digits. Coincidentally, the lone loss came to the Heat as the Rockets dropped a 101-99 setback as three-point road favorites on Dec. 20. Oddsmakers expecting Houston (-9) to get revenge here but bettors could be hesitant to lay the points knowing the Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight at the Toyota Center.

    Utah (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U) at Denver:
    The Jazz have been hit or miss on no rest this season but they have won three of their last four games. The ‘over’ has cashed in the past four contests.

    Break up the Knicks!?

    New York (13-48 SU, 26-34 ATS) will host Cleveland (14-47 SU, 27-33 ATS) tonight as a short home favorite (-3). The Knicks will be looking to win their third straight game on Wednesday after stunning the Spurs on Sunday and Magic on Tuesday from Madison Square Garden as underdogs. Going from hunter to hunted is never easy in any sport and New York hasn’t been a favorite since December. Overall, the Knicks are 3-5 both SU and ATS as a ‘chalk’ and they’ve lost their last four games in this role. New York’s longest winning streak this season was three games, which ended on Nov. 28. For what it’s worth, the Cavaliers are 2-0 both SU and ATS versus the Knicks this season, both wins coming in Cleveland.

    TNT Action

    Philadelphia (39-22 SU, 28-33 ATS) at Oklahoma City (38-22 SU, 33-27 ATS)


    This game loses a little luster as the 76ers still won’t have All-Star Joel Embiid (knee) available and his mini-rivalry with Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook always provides added entertainment. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia offered up his thoughts on the televised non-conference matchup, which begins at 8:05 p.m. ET.

    He said, “The 76ers are likely going to employ a small-ball approach with Joel Embiid and the newly acquired Boban Marjanovic sidelined. It will be interesting to see if the lack of a back-to-the-basket threat limits Steven Adams’ effectiveness for the Thunder, but the rebounding prowess of Russell Westbrook and Paul George make the Thunder a dangerous team to try and play position-less basketball against. Embiid had 31 points in Philly’s 117-115 loss when these teams played on Jan. 19. Tobias Harris was still with the Clippers when these teams met in Philly, but he’ll be critical in attempting to put a halt to the 19-game losing streak the 76ers are on against Oklahoma City.”

    “The 76ers have dropped nine straight at Chesapeake Energy Arena and will need Harris and J.J. Redick to shoot the ball well from beyond the arc in order to have the firepower to hang around here. Rookie Jonah Bolden, veteran Amir Johnson and center Justin Patton, who has gotten in just one game his entire career, will attempt to hold their own against Adams and Nerlens Noel, who have been an extremely effective combination. Markieff Morris should also see time and could be the x-factor since he might be in line for more minutes with Philly lacking a traditional center. At home, not having to deal with Embid or Marjanovic certainly favors OKC and a faster pace given the lack of resistance inside. Although Embiid gets to the free-throw line at a high rate to aid ‘overs,’ his defense is a major factor that the 76ers are having a tough time replicating. Portland scored 130 points without him in the mix on Saturday night.”

    The Thunder have gone 14-5 ATS during their 19-game winning streak over the 76ers and they’re laying 7 ½-points in this matchup. Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses in their last six games as underdogs and the team is 7-9 both SU and ATS this season when catching points. Make a note that the point-spread hasn’t mattered in any of those 16 contests so if you’re leaning Philadelphia, perhaps a money-line play at 5/2 odds could intrigue you.

    This game has the highest total on the board at 239. OKC has watched the ‘over’ go 18-11 at home this season. Both teams have watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their games since the All-Star break.

    Utah (34-26 SU, 31-27 ATS) at Denver (42-18 SU, 33-27 ATS)

    The Nuggets come into this game with a five-game winning streak and three of those wins have occurred after the All-Star break. Denver has gone 3-0 ATS in those victories and that includes an impressive 121-112 victory over the Thunder on Tuesday.

    For this matchup, the Nuggets opened as five-point home favorites and the number has been pushed up to -7 as of Thursday morning. Denver has been a tough out at the Pepsi Center this season, owning a league-best 27-4 record. More importantly, the Nuggets have gone 22-9 ATS for bettors. They’ve won 19 of their last 20 in Colorado and that includes a run of nine straight wins. During the current home winning streak, the club is 8-1 ATS.

    As noted above, the Jazz are playing with no rest and their numbers are pedestrian in back-to-back spots. Utah has gone 2-1 both SU and ATS since the break and the lone loss was a heartbreaker, a 148-147 setback at Oklahoma City in overtime.

    The Jazz haven’t been that strong on the road (14-16) this season but they’ve managed to churn out slight profits at the betting counter (15-13-1 ATS). In their last six games as visitors, they’re 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.

    The pair split the first two meetings this season and the home team won and covered both contests. These teams are only schedule to play three times so this encounter will be the last matchup between them. Denver stopped Utah 103-88 on Nov. 3 as a 4 ½-point favorite from the Pepsi Center. Including that win, the Nuggets have won and covered five straight at home against the Jazz. The ‘under’ has cashed in all five of those games.

    TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2019 at 01:34 PM.

  7. #7
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    Hoop Trends - Thursday
    Vince Akins

    ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

    -- The Pacers are 13-0 ATS (+10.08 ppg) as a favorite with less than two days rest when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.

    ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

    -- The Cavaliers are 0-16 ATS (-8.59 ppg) on the road with rest off a double-digit loss as a dog in which they scored fewer than ten fast break points.

    OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

    -- The Timberwolves are 15-0 OU (+13.67 ppg) as a dog with less than two days rest when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 20 fouls per game.

    OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

    -- The Magic are 0-14 OU (-10.93 ppg) at home off a loss when they lost at least three straight vs their opponent.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2019 at 01:35 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, February 28



    Philadelphia @ Oklahoma City

    Game 539-540
    February 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    118.376
    Oklahoma City
    119.185
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oklahoma City
    by 1
    234
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Oklahoma City
    by 7 1/2
    240 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (+7 1/2); Under

    Utah @ Denver


    Game 537-538
    February 28, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Utah
    125.799
    Denver
    124.969
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Utah
    by 1
    219
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 7
    225
    Dunkel Pick:
    Utah
    (+7); Under

    Miami @ Houston


    Game 535-536
    February 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    111.695
    Houston
    123.006
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 11 1/2
    217
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 9 1/2
    220 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-9 1/2); Under

    Cleveland @ New York


    Game 533-534
    February 28, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    109.869
    New York
    114.817
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New York
    by 5
    214
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New York
    by 3
    218 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New York
    (-3); Under

    Golden State @ Orlando


    Game 531-532
    February 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Golden State
    120.729
    Orlando
    125.942
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Orlando
    by 5
    229
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 6 1/2
    226 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Orlando
    (+6 1/2); Over

    Minnesota @ Indiana


    Game 529-530
    February 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    115.905
    Indiana
    113.736
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 2
    225
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indiana
    by 3 1/2
    221 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (+3 1/2); Over

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