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Thread: Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/12

  1. #1
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    Default Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/12

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, February 12

    Good Luck on day # 43 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    Six top minor league prospects of the Atlanta Braves:

    1) Austin Riley, 3B— Josh Donaldson will keep Riley in AAA this season.

    2) Ian Anderson, P— Went to HS 10-15 miles from Armadillo World HQ.

    3) Mike Soroka, P— Was 2-1, 3.51 in five major league starts LY.

    9) William Contreras, C— Younger brother of Cubs’ C Wilson Contreras.

    14) Kolby Allard, P— 10 of Atlanta’s top 14 prospects are pitchers.

    25) AJ Graffanino, SS— Son of former big leaguer Tony Graffanino.


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

    13) Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray chose football over baseball Monday, ending speculation as to whether he would show up at Oakland’s training camp later this week.

    Murray forfeits the vast majority of his $4.66M signing bonus from the A’s, but he’ll make a lot more than that when he gets picked in the first round of the NFL Draft. Read Monday that Murray winds up earning $210,000 from the A’s, for pretty much doing nothing.

    The 58th overall pick in last year’s NFL draft got a contract worth $4.86M, so as long as Murray is picked higher than 58th (which he will be), he makes money on this deal.

    Meanwhile, A’s had the 9th pick in the MLB draft LY and totally wasted it. No bueno. They do retain Murray’s baseball rights, but those are basically worthless now.

    12) With Hall of Fame baseball player Frank Robinson passing away this past week, there were pictures of him posted on the Interweb; one of them was when he was managing the Nationals, in 2005 or 2006. He is leaning against the front rail of the dugout.

    You look right behind the dugout and you can see the fans in the front row; one of the fans is Brett Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court judge who was under scrutiny last year for how much money he spent back then on tickets to Nationals’ games. Pretty sweet seats he had.

    11) Cincinnati Bengals’ new offensive coordinator is Brian Callahan, whose father Bill coached the Oakland Raiders for a while; the Bengals’ new head coach is Zac Taylor, who played QB for Bill Callahan at Nebraska.

    10) Weird stat: Duke hasn’t won or shared the ACC regular season title since 2010; they haven’t won it by themselves since 2006.

    9) Tennessee is 22-1 and ranked #1 in country, even though none of their players were top 100 recruits nationally coming out of high school.

    8) Indians’ SS Francisco Lindor has a right calf strain that will keep him sidelined from 7-9 weeks, which makes him doubtful to start the regular season.

    7) From Tyler Bischoff:

    UNLV’s basketball team has never had a defense finish outside the top 200 in kenpom.com‘s defensive efficiency rating. This goes back to 2002.

    With seven games left this season, Rebels are ranked #238 in defensive efficiency, which helps explain their 12-11 record. Losing their best player Shakur Juiston for the season was a back-breaker.

    6) Once you watch an AAF game on TV and you hear the replay official as he gives his verdict to the referee, it is obvious that the NFL has to do this next year, just to give transparency to the replay process. Makes the broadcast more interesting.

    5) Three of eight AAF teams ran 70+ plays in Week 1; NFL teams rarely run 70 plays in a game, so it looks like the shorter play clock will result in more action during their games.

    4) New Orleans Saints hired Darren Rizzi as special teams coordinator; he spent the last eight years as Miami’s special teams coach.

    3) Los Angeles Rams hired Wes Phillips as their new TE’s coach; he worked with Sean McVay in Washington and is the son of Rams’ DC Wade Phillips.

    2) When the Texas Longhorns were recruiting Patrick Mahomes, they recruited him as a DB, not a quarterback, which makes you question what the hell were they thinking about? How many QB’s in the NFL right now played at Texas?

    1) It snowed in Las Vegas Sunday night; that doesn’t happen much. There was a video on Twitter of a guy driving around Las Vegas, with the traffic lights and street lights both out, but all the casinos were lit up like usual. Was a little eerie, though.

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    Hot & Not Report
    YouWager

    Week of February 11th

    Handicapping the NBA right before the All-Star break can come with unique challenges in terms of trying to figure out focus and motivation for guys. The season has been a grind already as the teams are coming up on 60 games played, and with the relatively new week long break for the entire league, vacation and family time starts to be on the forefront of guys minds.

    So let's take a look back at what's happened in the NBA betting market the past few years during this week to see if we can use it to our advantage this week as these teams play their final game of the “first half.”

    Who's Hot

    NBA teams that are underdogs of 5 or more points in final game before the All-Star Break are 13-5 ATS the last two years – including 7-1 ATS last season


    When you think about it, a run like this by bigger underdogs does have some correlation with motivational/focus levels being low for those teams expected to win. It's definitely not ideal to back a team that's expected to win easy in their final game by a big margin, simply because it's those teams that take the approach that they just have to show up to the court and they'll leave with a victory. That's never a spot I like to be in, regardless of the time of year.

    Just last year alone, underdogs that were getting +5 or more in their final game before the break finished with a 7-1 ATS record, and while there were only two outright wins in that scenario – LA Clippers over Boston and Portland over Golden State – those two losses came from two teams that finished the year as two of the last four teams standing when the Conference Finals rolled around. So it's not like the league's best are immune from failure in this spot.

    This year, we've got three teams playing their final game before the break on Tuesday – LA Lakers, San Antonio, Utah – and with the Jazz visiting Golden State out in Oakland, it's likely that we see them fit this exact scenario. On Thursday there aren't that strong of candidates, but Orlando and New Orleans could fit the bill as home underdogs against Charlotte and OKC respectively, so keep an eye on those point spreads when they come out. Although home teams bring up a whole different scenario which I'll get to in a minute.

    The rest of the NBA wraps up their pre-All-Star schedule on Wednesday as there are 11 games on the betting board that day, and there will be some solid candidates that will fit this scenario as well. Oddly enough, Golden State is visiting Portland in the exact same situation as the two teams had a year ago – with Portland winning as +6.5 home dogs, and that is the latter end of a back-to-back for the Warriors. That's definitely a point spread to keep an eye on as well in terms of falling into this role.

    Aside from the Blazers being a potentially backable side, Wednesday should also bring us dogs of 5+ with a handful of teams including Sacramento, Phoenix, Detroit and Washington all on the road. Which brings me to...

    Who's Not

    NBA teams at home in final game before All-Star break went 3-12 ATS last year


    From a big picture standpoint, this ties in to bigger favorites struggling as well. For one, favorites tend to lay bigger numbers at home to begin with, and with the road teams still able to treat their final game in a more business-like fashion and not be “lulled to sleep” with family pulling at them the night before/day with off-court plans or vacation arrangements for the next week. It may have only been one year, but being in hostile territory was not that hostile at all at this point a year ago.

    A 3-12 ATS record for home teams in their final game is just atrocious, and while that mark is just a one year sample, you can see situational reasoning behind it, and make cases for it to be a popular angle to take for this year and beyond.

    Looking at Wednesday's NBA slate alone, chances are we will see plenty of big home favorites on the card as Denver, LA Clippers, Boston, and Toronto all host those four road teams I mentioned at the end of the “Hot” section, with other home sides like Indiana (vs Milwaukee), Cleveland (vs Brooklyn), Minnesota (vs Houston), and Portland (vs Golden State) all having tough matchups as it is, this year could be another rough one to back home teams before the All-Star break.

    Now every situation is going to be different – for example Dallas hosts Miami at the end of a very long road trip for the Heat, which is going to be a tough spot for Miami regardless - and each game will force you to be selective in which games you believe this scenario will fit the best.

    But when you can combine these two “Hot” and “Not” situations I've outlined into one game – a home team laying -5 or more – it might be worth your time to dig deeper into those games and build a case for taking the points with the road underdog.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Tuesday, February 12


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    LA LAKERS (28 - 28) at ATLANTA (18 - 38) - 2/12/2019, 7:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA LAKERS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    LA LAKERS are 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
    ATLANTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
    LA LAKERS are 140-100 ATS (+30.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
    ATLANTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in home games this season.
    ATLANTA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
    ATLANTA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    ATLANTA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA LAKERS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    LA LAKERS is 5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ORLANDO (25 - 32) at NEW ORLEANS (25 - 32) - 2/12/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ORLANDO is 40-58 ATS (-23.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    NEW ORLEANS is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BOSTON (35 - 21) at PHILADELPHIA (36 - 20) - 2/12/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 129-100 ATS (+19.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games in February games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 35-13 ATS (+20.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 87-65 ATS (+15.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 45-32 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 59-42 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 9-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 12-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SAN ANTONIO (32 - 26) at MEMPHIS (23 - 34) - 2/12/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MEMPHIS is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 1078-945 ATS (+38.5 Units) in all games since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 851-726 ATS (+52.4 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 159-115 ATS (+32.5 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 20-3 ATS (+16.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    SAN ANTONIO is 435-354 ATS (+45.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
    MEMPHIS is 60-75 ATS (-22.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MEMPHIS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    MEMPHIS is 34-48 ATS (-18.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MEMPHIS is 9-7 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    SAN ANTONIO is 11-6 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    UTAH (32 - 24) at GOLDEN STATE (40 - 15) - 2/12/2019, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 76-46 ATS (+25.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    UTAH is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    UTAH is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 69-85 ATS (-24.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 32-45 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    UTAH is 9-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 8-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Tuesday, February 12


    Lakers lost six of last nine games; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. Four of their last five games went over. Atlanta lost its last three games; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five home games. 12 of their last 15 games went over the total. Lakers won their last five games with the Hawks; they’re 3-2 vs spread in their last five visits to Atlanta. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

    Magic won/covered five of their last six games; they covered their last five road games. Three of their last four games went over. New Orleans lost seven of its last ten games; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five home games. Four of their last six games stayed under. Orlando won five of last seven games with the Pelicans; they’re 2-3 vs spread in their last five trips to New Orleans. Eight of last nine series games stayed under.

    No Irving for the Celtics here. Celtics lost their last two games after a 9-1 run; they’re 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven road games. Three of their last four road games went over. Philly is 9-4 in its last 13 games; they’re 5-4 vs spread in last nine home games. Five of their last six games stayed under. Boston won six of its last seven games with the 76ers; they’re 2-1 vs spread in last three visits to Philly. Over is 5-5 in last ten series games.

    San Antonio lost its last four games; they’re 0-7 vs spread in last seven; nine of their last ten games went over the total. Memphis won three of its last four games; they covered their last four home games. Six of their last seven games stayed under. Spurs won seven of last nine games with the Grizzlies; they’re 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Memphis. Three of last four series games stayed under.

    Utah won 12 of its last 15 games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six road games. Five of their last six games went over. Warriors won 15 of their last 16 games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven home games. Four of their last six home games went over. Jazz won four of last five games with Golden State (5-0 vs spread); they covered three of last four visits to Oakland. Five of last seven series games went over.




    NBA

    Tuesday, February 12


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Los Angeles Lakers
    LA Lakers is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games
    LA Lakers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    LA Lakers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 7 games on the road
    LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Hawks
    Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games
    Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
    Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
    Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

    San Antonio Spurs
    San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Antonio's last 10 games
    San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    San Antonio is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
    San Antonio is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Memphis
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Memphis
    San Antonio is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Memphis
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing on the road against Memphis
    Memphis Grizzlies
    Memphis is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Memphis is 8-15-1 ATS in its last 24 games
    Memphis is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games
    Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Memphis is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    Memphis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 9 games at home
    Memphis is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
    Memphis is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing San Antonio
    Memphis is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against San Antonio
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio

    Orlando Magic
    Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Orlando's last 15 games
    Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Orlando is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 7 games on the road
    Orlando is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing New Orleans
    Orlando is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Orlando's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
    Orlando is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    Orlando is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    New Orleans Pelicans
    New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    New Orleans is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
    New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games at home
    New Orleans is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
    New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Orlando
    New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Orlando
    New Orleans is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Orlando
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando

    Boston Celtics
    Boston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Boston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games
    Boston is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
    Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
    Boston is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games when playing Philadelphia
    Boston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Boston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia 76ers
    Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
    Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boston
    Philadelphia is 3-20 SU in its last 23 games when playing Boston
    Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
    Philadelphia is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Boston

    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Utah is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games
    Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games on the road
    Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
    Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
    Utah is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games when playing Golden State
    Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Utah is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Utah's last 23 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Golden State is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Golden State's last 18 games
    Golden State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
    Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
    Golden State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Utah
    Golden State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing Utah
    Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
    Golden State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Golden State's last 23 games when playing at home against Utah


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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, February 12



    LA Lakers @ Atlanta

    Game 569-570
    February 12, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Lakers
    116.258
    Atlanta
    107.083
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Lakers
    by 9
    238
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Lakers
    by 5 1/2
    236
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Lakers
    (-5 1/2); Over

    Orlando @ New Orleans


    Game 571-572
    February 12, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Orlando
    117.156
    New Orleans
    123.582
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 6 1/2
    229
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4 1/2
    224 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-4 1/2); Over

    Boston @ Philadelphia


    Game 573-574
    February 12, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Boston
    118.812
    Philadelphia
    123.325
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 4 1/2
    223
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 6 1/2
    226
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston
    (+6 1/2); Under

    San Antonio @ Memphis


    Game 575-576
    February 12, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Antonio
    113.002
    Memphis
    114.503
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Memphis
    by 1 1/2
    200
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Antonio
    by 4 1/2
    207 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Memphis
    (+4 1/2); Under

    Utah @ Golden State


    Game 577-578
    February 12, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Utah
    120.287
    Golden State
    126.935
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 6 1/2
    233
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 9
    229
    Dunkel Pick:
    Utah
    (+9); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-12-2019 at 02:03 PM.

  6. #6
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    According to reports, Celtics' Kyrie Irving will not play tonight at 76ers.
    Celtics are 7-2 straight up and 5-4 against the spread without Irving in the lineup this season. Over/Under: 4-5
    Pointspread: 76ers -6.5
    Total: 225

  7. #7
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    Inside the Paint - Tuesday
    Chris David

    L.A. Lakers (28-28 SU, 24-30-2 ATS) at Atlanta (18-38 SU, 24-32 ATS)

    Is this a must-win spot for the Lakers? Los Angeles will conclude its six-game road trip and the first-half of its season on Tuesday at Atlanta and this line seems a little short (Lakers -5 ˝) and could be a big trap for the betting public. The Lakers were recently listed as 2 ˝-point road favorites at Indiana on Feb. 5 and I’ve got a hard time believing that the Pacers are only three points better than the Hawks.

    And as much as I like Atlanta and its young core, the kids have been worse at home (8-16 SU, 7-17 ATS) this season and it’s dropped five in a row at State Farm Arena. Bettors should make a note that the point-spread hasn’t mattered when the team is listed as an underdog, which could have you leaning Hawks +180 on the money-line. Their last win at home came on Jan. 15, a 142-126 upset win over Oklahoma City as a 10-point underdog. If the Hawks drop their sixth straight game at home tonight, a bounce back is lined up with the Knicks visiting on Thursday before the break.

    Los Angeles has gone 2-3 on its current road trip, which includes an embarrassing 143-120 loss at Philadelphia on Sunday. LeBron James has played in four of those five games as he sat out the loss at Golden State (115-101) on Feb. 2. You could argue that the Lakers could be 0-5 if it wasn’t for an overtime win against the Clippers and Rajon Rondo's buzzer-beater to defeat the Celtics. On the season, they’ve gone 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS as road favorites.

    This is the highest total (236) on the board for Tuesday. Los Angeles has watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the road in games against clubs from the East and Atlanta enters this game in terrible defensive form. The Hawks have surrendered 123.7 points per game in their last nine, which has led to a 7-2 ‘over’ mark.

    Different faces on these teams but the Lakers have won five straight against the Hawks and they’ve gone 4-1 ATS during this span while the ‘over’ is 3-2. The non-cover came on Nov. 11 of this season as Los Angeles beat Atlanta 107-106 but failed to cover as an 11-point home favorite.

    Orlando (25-32 SU, 30-26-1 ATS) at New Orleans (25-32 SU, 27-29-1 ATS)

    The Pelicans are going to be a tough team to handicap the rest of the way due to the minute restriction placed on All-Star Anthony Davis. The team has gone 3-7 in their last 10 and that includes Saturday’s 99-90 loss at Memphis. New Orleans has been better at home (16-10 SU, 13-13 ATS) this season but it hasn’t been dominant versus teams from the East (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) and Orlando comes into this matchup surging.

    The Magic have won and covered three straight and five of their last six games, two of those wins coming on the road. The team is playing with confidence and is only two games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. Orlando has gone 2-1 both SU and ATS in its last three trips to New Orleans, which includes a 115-99 victory last season as a 7 ˝-point underdog.

    Boston (35-21 SU, 27-28-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (36-20 SU, 27-29 ATS)

    The nationally televised double-header on TNT will begin in Philadelphia, who opened as a five-point home favorite and the number has been pushed up to -6 ˝ as of Tuesday morning. Boston won’t have point guard Kyrie Irving (knee) available for this game.

    The Celtics come into this game off back-to-back collapses at home, losing to the Lakers 129-128 last Thursday before falling to the Clippers 123-112 on Saturday. While Boston was falling apart to the pair from Los Angeles, Philadelphia posted a pair of impressive wins over the Nuggets (117-110) and Lakers (143-120). The club added Tobias Harris from the Clippers at the trade deadline and he’s averaging 18 PPG and 7 rebounds in his first two games with Philadelphia.

    These teams have met twice already this season and Boston won and covered both contests, however those games were played at TD Garden and Irving was active in both contests, scoring 40 points in the Celtics’ 121-114 win on Christmas over Philadelphia. To say he’ll be missed tonight would be an understatement. Boston hasn’t been great on the road (13-13 SU, 9-16-1 ATS) and it’s been terrible when listed as an underdog this season, going 2-6 both SU and ATS. Make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in those games. While the Celtics have been pedestrian on the road, Philadelphia has been a beast at home (23-6 SU, 16-13 ATS) this season.

    Both clubs will be in action again tomorrow as Boston hosts Detroit and Philadelphia visits New York.

    San Antonio (32-26 SU, 31-26-1 ATS) at Memphis (23-34 SU, 25-31-1 ATS)

    Another possible trap game here with the Spurs listed as four-point road favorites but when you look at the series, it seems like a fair number. This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season between the pair and Memphis has gone 2-1 both SU and ATS versus San Antonio. The most recent encounter took place at FedEx Forum on Jan. 9 and the Grizzlies stifled the Spurs 96-86 as 2 ˝-point home underdogs.

    As solid as the Spurs have been this season, their road mark (10-19 SU, 13-15-1 ATS) hasn’t been great. However, their record when laying points as visitors (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has been a tad better.

    After going 7-23 in a brutal 30-game stretch, the Grizzlies have sort of found their footing with a 4-4 record over their last eight games. More importantly, they’ve been productive for bettors with a 6-1-1 ATS record and Memphis has gotten back to the grind with its defense and slow-tempo, and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 6-2 during this stretch.

    This is the lowest total (208) on the board for Tuesday and while Memphis has been a great ‘under’ (36-21) lean, make a note that San Antonio has been the best ‘over’ (20-8-1) wager on the road.

    Utah (32-24 SU, 28-26-2 ATS) at Golden State (40-15 SU, 24-30-1 ATS)

    The Warriors and Jazz will conclude their three-game season series on Tuesday and Golden State has been installed as a healthy nine-point favorite. The first two games took place earlier in the season from Salt Lake City and they were split. Golden State earned a 124-123 win on Oct. 19 and Utah avenged that loss with a 108-103 victory on Dec. 9. The Jazz were 2 ˝ and 2-point underdogs, covering both games and they’ve now cashed in five straight against the Warriors.

    Utah has gone 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Oracle Arena and the spread ranged between 9 and 14 points. As a road underdog this season, the Jazz have gone 5-7 SU and 5-6-1 ATS. This will be the final game of the first-half for the Jazz and they enter this game with wins and covers in three of their last four games.

    After posting identical 13-7 records in the first two quarters of the season (26-14), the Warriors have been much better in the third stanza (14-1). For bettors, they’ve gone 8-6-1 ATS but they limp into this game with a 1-4 skid over their last five games. The ‘over’ has gone 9-6 during this stretch and tonight’s total (226) is definitely high for this series. The Jazz have seen the ‘over’ go 15-13 on the road.

    TNT will provide coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-12-2019 at 02:05 PM.

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    Hoop Trends - Tuesday
    Vince Akins

    ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

    The Grizzlies are 10-0 ATS (+8.80 ppg) as a home dog off a win in which they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals.

    ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

    The Magic are 0-16 ATS (-15.53 ppg) with rest off a win when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game.

    OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

    The Pelicans are 15-0 OU (+18.37 ppg) as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game.

    OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

    The Lakers are 0-12 OU (-11.46 ppg) when they won each of the last two times they faced their opponent.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-12-2019 at 02:05 PM.

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