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Thread: Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/4

  1. #1
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    Default Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/4

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, February 4

    Good Luck on day # 35 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Someone named Andrew Miller posted his top six college QB’s for next year:

    1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

    2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

    3. D’Eriq King, Houston

    4. Justin Herbert, Oregon

    5. McKenzie Milton, Central Florida

    6. Sam Ehlinger, Texas


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sullen Sunday

    13) Patriots 13, Rams 3— New England wins its 6th Super Bowl title in a defensive struggle that was reminiscent of Super Bowls from the 70’s. Not a lot of offense.

    12) 18 months ago, if you had told me that the Rams would lose this Super Bowl Sunday night, I would’ve suggested drug testing for you, after I thanked you for trying to cheer me up.

    Sean McVay and GM Les Snead have a done a GREAT job making the Rams a prominent team; this was a disappointing end to a great season. Life goes on.

    11) We live in a country full of frontrunners and know-it-alls; only way to silence the haters is to win all the time. But only one team carries that trophy home; everyone else is a “loser”

    The Super Bowl is so hyped up that it magnifies the stuff that happens. Jared Goff’s job from this point on will be to play well, like he has for the last two years, but then when the Rams get back to the playoffs, he has to win a title, preferably in style.

    The naysayers will be after him from this point on, until he shuts them up.

    10) Sports are interesting because they’re unscripted; you can be a nerd like me and study trends and stats, but you never KNOW whats going to happen until it happens. Total for this game was 56, but it turned out to be the first Super Bowl with no TD’s in the first three quarters.

    Go figure.

    9) There was a 54-51 game this season and people complained about that. No defense.

    Lot of people are complaining a lot about this 13-3 game. No offense.

    There are lot of people who just like to complain.

    8) Turns out I’m way behind on my pop culture knowledge; this guy Adam Levine sings at halftime of the game; he is in one of my favorite movies, Begin Again, where he played a singer, but I had no idea he actually IS a singer. Who knew? (everybody but me, apparently)

    Halftimes are very long at the Super Bowl; wonder how that effects the players. It is almost like playing two separate games.

    7) Do people actually watch commercials? I almost never do, but did a little bit during the Super Bowl because it is useless to turn the channel during the game. Not much else on.

    6) This is what was on the ESPN family of networks at halftime of the game:

    ESPN— Boxing
    ESPN News— X Games
    ESPNU— Women’s gymnastics
    ESPN2— World Series of Poker

    5) Alex Rodriguez was in a commercial with Mr Peanut?

    4) Someday, people who broadcast football games on TV will realize that plays run is a more important stat than time of possession. Someday.

    3) How much do you think it costs to open/close a retractable dome? They opened it during the National Anthem so people could see the flyover, then closed it again; that can’t be cheap.

    2) Was looking thru Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on ESPN.com; there are still six weeks until Selection Sunday in college basketball, but on Sunday morning, last four teams in field were: Arizona State, Florida, Indiana, Seton Hall.

    1) On the bright side, it was over freezing in Albany Sunday and temps will be above freezing most of the week, creeping into the 50’s on Tuesday.

    Spring training starts in two weeks.

  3. #3
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    NHL

    Monday, February 4


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Los Angeles Kings
    Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
    Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games on the road
    Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Rangers
    Los Angeles is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing NY Rangers
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 9 games when playing NY Rangers
    New York Rangers
    NY Rangers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    NY Rangers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    NY Rangers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 7 games at home
    NY Rangers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
    NY Rangers is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Los Angeles
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Rangers's last 9 games when playing Los Angeles

    Vancouver Canucks
    Vancouver is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
    Vancouver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Vancouver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games on the road
    Vancouver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    Vancouver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Flyers
    Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Philadelphia's last 23 games
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver
    Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver

    Anaheim Ducks
    Anaheim is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
    Anaheim is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games
    Anaheim is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Anaheim is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 5 games on the road
    Anaheim is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Toronto
    Anaheim is 3-16-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Maple Leafs
    Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games
    Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Toronto is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Anaheim
    Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Anaheim
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Anaheim

    Arizona Coyotes
    Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
    Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
    Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Dallas
    Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    Dallas Stars
    Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games
    Dallas is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
    Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Arizona
    Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
    Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Monday, February 4


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    VANCOUVER (24-22-0-6, 54 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (23-23-0-6, 52 pts.) - 2/4/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VANCOUVER is 390-372 ATS (-117.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
    PHILADELPHIA is 21-10 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 3 seasons.
    VANCOUVER is 160-139 ATS (+310.9 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
    PHILADELPHIA is 426-385 ATS (-183.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-2-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.0 Units)

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    LOS ANGELES (20-27-0-4, 44 pts.) at NY RANGERS (22-22-0-7, 51 pts.) - 2/4/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LOS ANGELES is 47-57 ATS (-27.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    LOS ANGELES is 207-256 ATS (-85.4 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
    LOS ANGELES is 6-14 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    NY RANGERS are 20-30 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY RANGERS is 3-2 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
    NY RANGERS is 3-2-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.8 Units)

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    ANAHEIM (21-22-0-9, 51 pts.) at TORONTO (31-17-0-3, 65 pts.) - 2/4/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ANAHEIM is 3-13 ATS (-11.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
    TORONTO is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games in February games over the last 2 seasons.
    ANAHEIM is 559-454 ATS (+29.9 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
    ANAHEIM is 63-45 ATS (+13.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
    ANAHEIM is 124-122 ATS (+269.5 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
    ANAHEIM is 275-247 ATS (+533.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
    TORONTO is 398-409 ATS (-44.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
    TORONTO is 189-211 ATS (-105.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 3-2 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 3-2-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

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    ARIZONA (23-23-0-5, 51 pts.) at DALLAS (27-21-0-4, 58 pts.) - 2/4/2019, 8:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DALLAS is 21-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.
    DALLAS is 148-142 ATS (-62.1 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 7-0 (+7.0 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 7-0-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.7 Units)

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  5. #5
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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Monday, February 4



    Vancouver @ Philadelphia

    Game 59-60
    February 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Vancouver
    12.037
    Philadelphia
    10.571
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Vancouver
    by 1 1/2
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    -170
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Vancouver
    (+150); Under

    Los Angeles @ NY Rangers


    Game 61-62
    February 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Los Angeles
    11.340
    NY Rangers
    9.807
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Los Angeles
    by 1 1/2
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Rangers
    -135
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Los Angeles
    (+115); Over

    Anaheim @ Toronto


    Game 63-64
    February 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Anaheim
    8.505
    Toronto
    10.342
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 2
    8
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toronto
    -265
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (-265); Over

    Arizona @ Dallas


    Game 65-66
    February 4, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    10.502
    Dallas
    12.449
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 2
    4
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    -185
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (-185); Under

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    Stars a boon for Under bettors, and this week's NHL predictions and picks
    Monty Andrews

    Despite Tyler Seguin's scoring ability the Dallas Stars have struggled on offense this season, which has been useful to bettors taking the Under on their games.

    The Metropolitan Division battle is the best race in the league right now – and one of the teams in the hunt for top spot has the benefit of two home games to open the week as we break down the NHL betting action. The packed schedule includes the Dallas Stars looking like strong candidates to galvanize their spot atop the "Under" standings, and the Toronto Maple Leafs primed to improve upon their mediocre home record. Here are the top games, betting trends and tips to monitor as the NHL rumbles into the first full week of February.

    Three-Headed Monster

    Looking for futures odds on your favorite Metropolitan Division contender? As of Monday, it's a complete toss-up, with the Pittsburgh Penguins listed at +240 to win the division title, followed oh-so-closely by the defending-champion Washington Capitals (+260) and the Columbus Blue Jackets (+270). But of those three, only the Capitals have the benefit of playing two early-week home games, as they entertain Vancouver and Colorado. Bettors should consider the Over with all three teams this week, with each of them ranking in the top-8 in goals per game on the season.

    Under the Stars

    The Dallas Stars were built to be one of the NHL's highest-scoring teams. But they're headed in the opposite direction coming into the week, averaging just 2.56 goals per game – good for 30th out of 31 teams. The season-long scoring woes have made the Stars an Under bettor's dream, as they sit with a 15-31-6 O/U record – including an incredible 5-16-4 record away from American Airlines Center. Dallas' rock-solid Under trend looks like it might continue this week, as it hosts the Arizona Coyotes (22-28-1 O/U) before visiting the Nashville Predators (9-14-3 O/U at home).

    Home Leaf Home

    The Toronto Maple Leafs remain a strong contender to win the Stanley Cup – but they'll need to be a lot better in their own barn if they have any hope of competing with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Toronto carries a hum-drum 15-11-1 mark at Scotiabank Arena into the week, a major reason why they now find themselves a whopping 15 points back of the Lightning for top spot in the Atlantic Division. But oddsmakers like the Leafs to bounce back Monday, making them a -260 favorite vs. Anaheim. Toronto will host the lowly Ottawa Senators (-3.47 units on the road) on Wednesday.

    Rocked Like a Hurricane

    If it feels like it's been a while since the Buffalo Sabres have beaten the Carolina Hurricanes, that's because it has. The Hurricanes visit the Sabres on Thursday night having dominated the head-to-head series of late, winning each of the past seven meetings. And that isn't the only trend bettors should pay attention to heading into this one. The teams have combined for six or more goals in each of their previous three meetings, and four of the past five. The second period has been action-packed in this series, producing four or more goals in three of the last five tilts.

    Goalie Profile: Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers

    It has been a great stretch for Hart, who has emerged as the goaltending savior the Flyers haven't had in a while. The 20-year-old rookie has reeled off six consecutive victories despite facing 35 or more shots four times in that span. The 2016 second-round pick has a 2.58 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage on the season, and is well-positioned to improve on those rate stats this week. Philadelphia hosts a Vancouver team Monday that ranks 18th in the league in goals scored before tangling with an L.A. Kings roster that averages a league-low 2.25 goals per game.

    Injury Update: Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

    Being a Red Wings fan or bettor these days is an exercise in frustration and patience – and both groups will be exposed to a little more of that thanks to an injury to Larkin. The Red Wings' most dangerous offensive player is expected to miss the next 1-2 weeks with a strained oblique, leaving Detroit scrambling to replace his offense. The 22-year-old Michigan native had missed just two games in his first three seasons prior to the injury; he leads the Red Wings in goals (22) and points (49), with Detroit having gone 16-14-7 in games in which he records at least one point.

    Hat Trick Trends

    Road teams reigned supreme in the return from the All-Star Break. The visitors posted a stunning 18-12-4 SU record over the previous seven days, good for a 52.9-percent success rate that returned a tidy profit for road team bettors. Visiting teams have now converted SU at a 47.9-percent clip over the previous 30 days.

    Under bettors also made bank over the past week, with 18 games finishing below the total (54.6 percent) compared to 15 going over. That's consistent with how games have finished over the past month, with the under converting at a 54.4-percent rate. Under also rules the season results, though just barely (50.7 percent).

    We referenced the Maple Leafs' home woes earlier – and those problems at Scotiabank Arena are a major reason why the team is at -0.13 units for the season. Toronto is -7.41 at home, compared to a +7.28 road mark that ranks fifth in the league. Is the latter sustainable? We'll find out, with the Leafs playing six of their next eight on the road.

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