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Thread: Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/28

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    Default Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/28

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, January 28

    Good Luck on day # 28 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    — Villanova 80, Seton Hall 52— Wildcats are 7-0 in the Big East.

    — Minnesota 92, Iowa 87— Hawkeyes made 10-18 on the arc, still lost.

    — Florida State 78, Miami 66— Seminoles made 12-20 three-pointers.

    — Oregon 78, Washington State 58— Coogs lost nine of their last ten games.

    — Justin Rose won the Farmers Insurance Open by 3 shots over Adam Scott.

    — Why is the Oklahoma City Thunder retiring Nick Collison’s jersey?


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

    13) Quick story to start this week off:

    Long, long time ago, my junior year in high school, we had a good basketball team. Third or fourth game of the year, we play a rival school that is also supposed to be really good, but with 2:00 left in the first half, we led 33-4. It was tremendous. 33. to. 4.

    Other team scores last seven points of the half; we’re up 33-11 in a game with no shot clock and no 3-pointers— it is December, 1975. Our coach was NOT happy.

    The guy spent the whole halftime screaming about those seven points; if I remember right, the final was 68-44, something like that. An easy win; halftime should’ve been a positive time.

    We wound up winning the league in miraculous fashion on the last day of the season, but on that December night, I learned a lot about coaching, about how being too negative can turn kids off pretty quickly. Two of the juniors on that team wouldn’t play the next year, when they would’ve been starters. Finished 8-11 the next season. No bueno.

    12) Really good article on ESPN.com about the Cleveland Browns’ front office and how messed up it has been since Jimmy Haslam bought the team. Go read it; long article, but interesting.

    Trivia: Haslam and former senator Bob Corker were roommates at U of Tennessee.

    11) Sometimes things that help teams win are things that have NOTHING to do with that team.

    For instance, the Cleveland Browns drafted Johnny Manziel because thats who Haslam wanted them to draft; the GM wanted Oregon State WR Brandin Cooks.

    Cooks play WR for the Rams now, will play in the Super Bowl Sunday, all because the Browns’ owner meddled and demanded they take Manziel.

    10) Iowa State has come a long way this season; they’re 15-5, 4-3 in the Big X; last year, Cyclones went 13-18, 4-14 in league- they weren’t favored in any of their Big X games last year. None.

    9) Home teams won nine of ten games in the SEC-Big X challenge; Iowa State was only road team to win- they won at Ole Miss.

    They extended the SEC-Big X challenge six years, so it must get good TV ratings.

    8) Cincinnati 72, Temple 68— Bearcats were down 35-25 at halftime, then by 14 in second half, but rallied to win and move to 7-1 in AAC.

    7) Georgetown 89, St John’s 78— Patrick Ewing was a great defensive player, but his Hoya teams play fast, are fun to watch. Average total in Georgetown’s Big East games is 169; now all Ewing has to do is win (3-4) some more of those games.

    6) Purdue 73, Michigan State 63— Boilermakers never trailed; they won’t play a better game this season, ending Michigan State’s 22-game Big 14 win streak.

    5) No idea who the guy is, but the analyst on the Indiana State-Illinois State game Sunday went on a brief rant near the end of the game, about how “….if we put a man on the moon, how come we can’t grow hair on a bald man’s head?” Briefly stunning, kind of funny and a fair question.

    Turns out the guy’s name is Doyle; hope CBS moves him up in the analyst hierarchy.

    4) Kirk Cousins makes $28M a year; Tom Brady makes $20.5M; either Robert Kraft is paying Brady off under the table, circumventing the salary cap, or Brady’s agent is the dumbest person in New England. How is Brady not one of the top five highest-paid QB’s?

    3) Sunday of President’s Day weekend should be fun; college hoop, Daytona 500 and the NBA All-Star Game. That covers the demographics of just about everyone in America, right?

    In case you’re wondering, first spring training baseball game is February 21; the first full day of games is February 23.

    2) I watch a ton of sports on TV; basketball, baseball, football. Can’t remember the last time I watched the Pro Bowl, except a few minutes in a bar last year because Jared Goff was playing. Understood that people bet on the game and therefore have an interest, but there is nothing in sports that interests me less than the Pro Bowl, except soccer. Don’t like soccer.

    1) Tip of the cap to my mailman, who trudged through snowy lawns all week delivering the mail to our neighborhood. Job can’t be much fun in the winter; cold as hell, windy, lot of snow on the ground, but his work is appreciated.

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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Monday, January 28



    Winnipeg @ Philadelphia

    Game 71-72
    January 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Winnipeg
    9.764
    Philadelphia
    11.204
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 1 1/2
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    -120
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (+100); Over

    New Jersey @ Pittsburgh


    Game 73-74
    January 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Jersey
    8.933
    Pittsburgh
    11.934
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 3
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    -225
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-225); Over





    NHL

    Monday, January 28


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    Trend Report
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    Winnipeg Jets
    Winnipeg is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Winnipeg is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
    Winnipeg is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Flyers
    Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Winnipeg
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

    New Jersey Devils
    New Jersey is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    New Jersey is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games
    New Jersey is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    New Jersey is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games on the road
    New Jersey is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    New Jersey is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    New Jersey is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    New Jersey is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Penguins
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey
    Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey
    Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Jersey
    Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against New Jersey


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-28-2019 at 01:44 PM.

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    NHL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

    1. Senators 30-17
    2. Sharks 31-19
    3. Blackhawks 27-17
    4. Panthers 26-17
    t5. Flames 25-21
    t5. Avalanche 25-21
    7. Sabres 26-21
    8. Lightning 26-20


    NHL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

    1. Ducks 32-17
    2. Islanders 30-16
    3. Stars 28-15
    4. Bruins 28-18
    t5. Hurricanes 29-20
    t5. Kings 29-20
    7. Blue Jackets 26-18
    8. Canadiens 28-22
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-28-2019 at 01:45 PM.

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    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Monday, January 28


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WINNIPEG (31-15-0-2, 64 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (19-23-0-6, 44 pts.) - 1/28/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WINNIPEG is 92-56 ATS (+22.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 21-9 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 44-16 ATS (+20.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 256-275 ATS (-29.5 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
    PHILADELPHIA is 4-12 ATS (+17.1 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 3-2 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 3-2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW JERSEY (18-23-0-7, 43 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (26-16-0-6, 58 pts.) - 1/28/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW JERSEY is 18-30 ATS (+50.5 Units) in all games this season.
    NEW JERSEY is 4-16 ATS (+25.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
    NEW JERSEY is 5-18 ATS (+28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    PITTSBURGH is 19-4 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW JERSEY is 5-6 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 6-5-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.1 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-28-2019 at 01:46 PM.

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    Lightning to light lamp vs Penguins, and this week's NHL predictions and picks
    Monty Andrews

    Philly Special

    Wells Fargo Center has provided one of the biggest road-ice advantages to date – and the Flyers would love nothing more than to change that as they host the Jets on Monday night. Philadelphia has dropped five consecutive home games against teams with winning records, and own the second-worst home record in the Eastern Conference (10-10-3). The Jets, meanwhile, have been a respectable 13-9-0 on the road this season en route to going into the break with the top record in the Central Division, even with Nashville on points but with four games in hand. That said, the home team has won the last six games in this series.

    Can Columbus Rattle Sabres Again?

    The Buffalo Sabres had an up-and-down first half of the season – and the start of the unofficial second half is a challenging one as the Sabres visit the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday night. Columbus has dominated the head-to-head series of late, winning six of the previous eight meetings – including the past four at Nationwide Arena. Worth watching: the Blue Jackets' power play, which ranks 27th out of 31 teams at 14.6 percent for the season but added Hall of Fame forward Martin St. Louis as a special teams consultant. Buffalo has the league's ninth-best penalty kill at 82.2 percent.

    You're Invited to the Goal Parade

    You might see Wednesday's game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins and think, "Boy, I bet these teams score a lot against each other." And friend, you would be right. Two of the most dangerous offenses in the NHL renew hostilities at PPG Paints Arena, and bettors shouldn't be surprised to see this one carry a total of 6.5. The teams have combined for seven more more goals in each of their previous seven meetings, and 11 of their past 12. And if you're thinking of sliding down to a slightly lower total, you'll be pleased to know that they've scored six or more goals in 14 straight games.

    There's No Place Like Home

    The New Jersey Devils went into the All-Star break as the worst value play in the NHL – but they're in good position to start the second half on a positive note as they entertain the New York Rangers on Thursday night. Bettors siding with the Devils would be down 12.34 units through their first 48 games, thanks in large part to a dismal 5-17-3 SU record away from Prudential Center. But Thursday's opponent might offer some relief; while the Rangers entered the break 10th-most units won (0.85), they're one of only two teams in the top 10 with a negative unit return on the road (-1.65).

    Goalie Profile: Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators

    There might not be a goaltending controversy brewing in Music City, but if Saros continues to outplay incumbent starter Pekka Rinne, there might be. Saros has been one of the best netminders in the league this month, boasting a 4-1-0 record with a 1.47 goals-against average, a .955 save percentage and one shutout. Contrast that with Rinne's 3-2-2 record, 3.33 GAA and .896 SV%, and it's clear who has been the better option so far this calendar year. Look for Saros to see more action as the season winds down; Nashville is 12-8-1 SU and 14-6-1 O/U in his 21 appearances on the campaign.

    Injury Update: F Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche

    A bruised foot kept Avalanche superstar MacKinnon out of this weekend's All-Star Game, though he did participate as a coach. Colorado fans are holding their collective breath after MacKinnon underwent multiple MRIs to determine the severity of the injury. His absence would be a significant blow to an Avalanche team that has been a three-man show on offense. MacKinnon enters the week in a tie for fifth in the league in points with 71, eight behind league leader Nikita Kucherov of Tampa Bay, three behind teammate Mikko Rantanen, and 17 ahead of linemate Gabriel Landeskog. The Avs are +1,800 to win the Western Conference.

    Hat Trick Trends

    The unofficial first half of the season produced an almost even number of overs and unders, as you might expect. The league saw 367 unders through the All-Star break (50.6 percent), compared to 359 overs (49.4 percent). Of the 163 non-push games that went to overtime, 90 went over (55.2 percent) while 73 went under (44.8 percent).

    The biggest development over the previous 30 days worth of games: Bettors who have shown faith in the road team have been handsomely rewarded. Road teams have won at a 50 percent clip over that span (102-91-11), with road favorites prevailing at a 60-percent clip (36-21-3). Favorites overall converted 56 percent of the time in that stretch (112-85-3).

    It should come as no surprise that the league-leading Lightning have been the biggest profit producer entering the final week of January, having returned 17.81 units to date. The New York Islanders continue to surprise as the No. 2 team in profit (15.53), while the Calgary Flames round out the top 3 (11.07).

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