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Thread: Friday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 1/18

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    Default Friday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 1/18

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, January 18

    Good Luck on day # 18 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    — Phil Mickelson shot a 60, leads the Desert Classic by three strokes.

    — Seahawks signed QB Paxton Lynch to back up Russell Wilson.

    — Bronx signed reliever Adam Ottavino to a 3-year, $27M deal.

    — Diamondbacks signed utility guy Wilmer Flores to a 1-year deal.

    — Texas QB Shane Buechele is transferring from the Longhorns’ program.

    — TCU G Jaylen Fisher is leaving the Horned Frogs’ program, their 4th transfer this season.


    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

    13) Not that I’m paranoid or anything, but since 2012, Rams are 0-8 (0-2 this year) when Bill Vinovich’s crew referees their games (Saints are 5-3).

    Vinovich is a good official (he’s also done the Final Four in college hoop) but would it kill the NFL to send him to the AFC game?

    12) Those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it: FOX signed Urban Meyer to be a college football analyst next season.

    Meyer was an analyst on ESPN for a year before he went to Ohio State, and he was incapable of humor or laughter- I actually felt bad for the guy. We’ll see next fall if he’s lightened up at all.

    11) Thursday night’s college hoop upsets:
    — FIU (+12.5) 77, Western Kentucky 76
    — Manhattan (+6) 58, St Peter’s 56
    — Oregon (+4.5) 59, Arizona 54

    10) Bill Belichick’s first NFL coaching job (assistant special teams coach) was with the Detroit Lions, in 1976; Also on that staff? Jerry Glanville, who went on to coach the Oilers/Falcons, one of the all-time great characters. Hard to imagine both of those guys in the same meeting.

    Belichick was a special assistant with the ’75 Colts, but technically was not a member of the coaching staff.

    9) For some reason, I became curious about this yesterday, so I looked it up. Last year, the average WNBA salary was $71,635, and this year will be closer to $75,000. The maximum veteran salary is $113,500.

    8) Reason why VCU is a better college basketball job than most mid-majors: Rams have had 126 consecutive sellouts at home. Basketball is sports priority #1 at VCU, by far.

    7) Sounds like Cam Newton has a chance to miss all of 2019 with shoulder issues, much like Andrew Luck missed all of 2017. If so, where do the Panthers turn for a new QB?

    6) Former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts is taking his 26-2 record as a starting QB to Oklahoma, which should prove to be very interesting.

    5) Once Oklahoma signed up Hurts, they released backup QB Austin Kendall, who quickly bolted to West Virginia, where he will play against the Sooners next year.

    4) Speaking of Alabama’s football team, five of their assistant coaches from this past season have already found new jobs; was reading an article during bowl season- pro scouts were saying that this was Saban’s worst coaching staff in his many years with the Crimson Tide, so you wonder if guys jumped ship or got pushed overboard?

    3) Jets’ DC Gregg Williams is now working for his ninth NFL team; he could write one hell of a book someday.

    2) Michigan Wolverines offered a college scholarship to a 7th grade QB in Michigan, which is highly unusual and even a little weird. What are the odds that Jim Harbaugh is still coaching there when the kid graduates from high school, five years from now?

    1) Cincinnati basketball coach Mick Cronin got tossed from a game Tuesday when his team was winning; not sure I’ve ever seen that before. AAC had a rough week with its refs; Tulsa/UConn game the next night saw both head coaches get tossed at the same time, even stranger.

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Friday, January 18


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    MARYLAND (15 - 3) at OHIO ST (12 - 4) - 1/18/2019, 6:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MARYLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    MARYLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MARYLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
    OHIO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MARYLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
    MARYLAND is 2-1 straight up against OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ST JOSEPHS (8 - 9) at SAINT LOUIS (13 - 4) - 1/18/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAINT LOUIS is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    SAINT LOUIS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    SAINT LOUIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
    SAINT LOUIS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    SAINT LOUIS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    SAINT LOUIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAINT LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
    SAINT LOUIS is 2-0 straight up against ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NORTHWESTERN (10 - 7) at RUTGERS (8 - 8) - 1/18/2019, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    RUTGERS is 2-2 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
    NORTHWESTERN is 3-1 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    E MICHIGAN (8 - 9) at BUFFALO (16 - 1) - 1/18/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    E MICHIGAN is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
    E MICHIGAN is 162-207 ATS (-65.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    E MICHIGAN is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in January games since 1997.
    E MICHIGAN is 122-161 ATS (-55.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
    BUFFALO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
    BUFFALO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
    BUFFALO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    BUFFALO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    E MICHIGAN is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BUFFALO is 3-0 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
    BUFFALO is 3-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OHIO U (9 - 7) at TOLEDO (14 - 3) - 1/18/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OHIO U is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
    OHIO U is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
    OHIO U is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
    OHIO U is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    OHIO U is 104-68 ATS (+29.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TOLEDO is 3-1 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
    TOLEDO is 3-1 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    XAVIER (11 - 7) at VILLANOVA (13 - 4) - 1/18/2019, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VILLANOVA is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    VILLANOVA is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    VILLANOVA is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    VILLANOVA is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    VILLANOVA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
    XAVIER is 360-305 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all games since 1997.
    XAVIER is 360-305 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
    XAVIER is 247-195 ATS (+32.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    VILLANOVA is 4-0 against the spread versus XAVIER over the last 3 seasons
    VILLANOVA is 4-0 straight up against XAVIER over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MARIST (6 - 10) at IONA (5 - 10) - 1/18/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    IONA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
    IONA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
    IONA is 66-96 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1997.
    IONA is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.
    IONA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MARIST is 2-1 against the spread versus IONA over the last 3 seasons
    IONA is 3-0 straight up against MARIST over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-18-2019 at 01:50 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, January 18


    Maryland won its last six games, is 6-1 in Big 14, 2-1 on road, with only loss by hoop at Purdue. Terps are turning ball over 19.2% of time in league play, but making 38.8% on arc. Ohio State lost its last three games after a 12-1 start; Buckeyes were held to 61-62 points in last two games. Maryland won four of last five games with OSU; teams split four meetings played here. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in series games. Terrapins are 10-5 in last 15 games as a Big 14 road underdog, 2-0 this year; under Holtmann, OSU is 6-3 as a home favorite, 1-0 this year.

    St Joe’s lost four of its last five games; their last two games were both decided by a single point. Hawks are 0-2 in A-14 road games, losing by 1-26 points. Saint Louis won its last five games, is 4-0 in A-14, winning home games by 7-3 points. Billikiens are forcing turnovers 22.1% of time in A-14 games. SLU won 11 of last 12 games with St Joe’s; underdogs covered last three series games. Hawks lost their last five trips to St Louis. Last 5+ years, St Joe’s is 21-9 as an A-14 road underdog, 1-0 this year; Billikens are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite.

    Northwestern is 5-1 vs Rutgers in Big 14 play, winning two of three visits to the Garden State. Wildcats lost four of their last six games; they’re 1-5 in big 14 games, with only win by hoop vs Illinois. Northwestern is 0-3 in Big 14 road games, with losses by 2-26-20 points. Rutgers lost three of last four games; they’re also 1-5 in Big 14 tilts. Scarlet Knights ae shooting 45.3% inside arc in Big 14 games, 29.9% outside arc. Wildcats are 4-2 in last six games as a Big 14 road favorite; Rutgers is 10-7 in its last 17 games as a home underdog, 1-2 this year.

    Buffalo held Eastern Michigan to 33.3% from floor in 74-58 win in Ypsilanti two weeks ago; Bulls led by 25 with 1:24 left to play. Buffalo won last four series games; Eagles lost their last eight visits to western NY. EMU split its first four MAC games, with both road games decided by a basket. Eagles are turning ball over 25.4% of time in MAC games. Bulls won their last five games, is 4-0 in MAC, winning home games by 30-24 points. Under Oats, Buffalo is 17-9 as a MAC home favorite, 2-0 this year; EMU covered seven of its last nine games as a road underdog.

    Ohio U lost four of last six games, is 1-3 in MAC games; Bobcats are shooting 44.4% inside arc, 51.5% on foul line in MAC play- they’re 1-2 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 21-28 points. Toledo is 14-3 vs schedule #263 but split its first four MAC tilts, winning last two, by 8-12 points. Rockets won three of their last four games with Ohio; Bobcats lost three of last four visits here. Underdogs covered last three series games. Last 4+ years, Ohio is 9-17 as a MAC road underdog, 1-1 this year; Rockets are 4-7 in last 11 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year.

    Xavier is 11-7 vs schedule #52; they’re 3-2 in Big East, splitting pair of road games. Musketeers are 3-5 vs top 100 teams, 1-3 in true road games, with win at DePaul. Villanova won its last five games, winning first two Big East home games, by 5-5 points. Villanova is 10-1 vs Xavier in Big East play, winning last four meetings, all by 16+ points. Musketeers are 0-5 at Villanova, losing by 23-13-31-25-24 points. Xavier is 9-15 as a Big East road underdog, 0-1 this year; last 3+ years, Wildcats are 13-16 vs spread as home favorites, 0-2 this year.

    Iona won its last nine games with Marist, winning last four series games here, by 9-22-10-13 points. Marist lost five of its last six games, is 1-3 in MAAC games, losing its only MAAC road game by 9 at St Peter’s- they’re 2-7 overall in true road games. Iona won three of its last four games after a 2-9 start; Gaels are scoring 94 ppg in MAAC games, making 48.5% of their 3-point shots. Last 5+ years, Marist is 28-20-1 vs spread as a MAAC road underdog; Gaels are 11-25 in last 36 games as a home favorite, but 2-0 this season.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-18-2019 at 01:51 PM.

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    NCAAB

    Friday, January 18


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Maryland @ Ohio State
    Maryland
    Maryland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Maryland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Ohio State
    Ohio State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 5 games when playing Maryland

    Northwestern @ Rutgers
    Northwestern
    Northwestern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Rutgers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games when playing Rutgers
    Rutgers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers's last 5 games when playing Northwestern
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers's last 5 games

    Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis
    Saint Joseph's
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Saint Joseph's's last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saint Joseph's's last 7 games when playing on the road against Saint Louis
    Saint Louis
    Saint Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saint Joseph's
    Saint Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saint Joseph's

    Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo
    Eastern Michigan
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    Buffalo
    Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

    Ohio @ Toledo
    Ohio
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toledo
    Toledo
    Toledo is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
    Toledo is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games

    Marist @ Iona
    Marist
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Marist's last 5 games when playing Iona
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marist's last 5 games
    Iona
    Iona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Marist
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iona's last 5 games when playing Marist

    Xavier @ Villanova
    Xavier
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Xavier's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Xavier's last 7 games when playing on the road against Villanova
    Villanova
    Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    Michigan @ Wisconsin
    Michigan
    Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Wisconsin
    Wisconsin is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Michigan
    Wisconsin is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing Michigan

    North Carolina @ Miami
    North Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 5 games
    North Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing North Carolina

    Florida @ Georgia
    Florida
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Florida's last 14 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing on the road against Georgia
    Georgia
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia's last 5 games when playing at home against Florida
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia's last 8 games

    Tulsa @ Central Florida
    Tulsa
    Tulsa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Central Florida
    Tulsa is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Central Florida
    Central Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    Central Florida is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Tulsa

    UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern
    UNC Wilmington
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of UNC Wilmington's last 5 games
    UNC Wilmington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Northeastern
    Northeastern is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Northeastern is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-18-2019 at 01:52 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Friday, January 18



    Maryland @ Ohio State

    Game 851-852
    January 18, 2019 @ 6:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Maryland
    60.548
    Ohio State
    76.609
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ohio State
    by 16
    140
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Ohio State
    by 2 1/2
    138 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ohio State
    (-2 1/2); Over

    Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo


    Game 857-858
    January 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Eastern Michigan
    54.192
    Buffalo
    68.369
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Buffalo
    by 14
    146
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Buffalo
    by 16
    148 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Eastern Michigan
    (+16); Under

    Northwestern @ Rutgers


    Game 855-856
    January 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Northwestern
    68.565
    Rutgers
    55.953
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Northwestern
    by 12 1/2
    137
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Northwestern
    by 1 1/2
    131
    Dunkel Pick:
    Northwestern
    (-1 1/2); Over

    Marist @ Iona


    Game 863-864
    January 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Marist
    43.199
    Iona
    51.648
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Iona
    by 8 1/2
    153
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Iona
    by 7
    155
    Dunkel Pick:
    Iona
    (-7); Under

    Ohio @ Toledo


    Game 859-860
    January 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ohio
    48.300
    Toledo
    58.951
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toledo
    by 10 1/2
    138
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toledo
    by 8 1/2
    142
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toledo
    (-8 1/2); Under

    St Joseph's @ St Louis


    Game 853-854
    January 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    St Joseph's
    52.627
    St Louis
    62.519
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    St Louis
    by 10
    131
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    St Louis
    by 8
    134
    Dunkel Pick:
    St Louis
    (-8); Under

    Xavier @ Villanova


    Game 861-862
    January 18, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Xavier
    66.580
    Villanova
    74.481
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Villanova
    by 8
    143
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Villanova
    by 10
    138 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Xavier
    (+10); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-18-2019 at 01:53 PM.

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    This weekend's NCAA basketball odds and analysis
    Monty Andrews

    Virginia has gone an incredible 9-2-1 ATS in its past 12 visits to Cameron Indoor and are 13-3 ATS this season, including the last seven in a row.

    Can Xavier turn around what has been a disappointing season to date? History suggests that it won't happen Friday night as the Musketeers bring an ugly cover record into their Big East encounter with Villanova. That matchup kicks off an action-packed weekend of college basketball, including a marquee showdown between Virginia and Duke, and Gonzaga looking to make a statement against a Portland team that has been surprisingly competitive against the Bulldogs. Here are the top matchups, tips and betting trends to monitor heading into this weekend's NCAA hoops schedule:

    No Quarter From 'Nova

    Oddsmakers traditionally see games between Xavier and Villanova as competitive matchups – but that hasn't been the case in recent years as the Big East rivals renew acquaintances Friday night in Pennsylvania. The visiting Musketeers have been a rough cover option already this season at 6-10-1 and face the unenviable task of turning around a trend that has seen them convert just one cover in their previous 11 meetings with the Wildcats. And Villanova has dominated in recent meetings, winning the past four by at least 16 points despite being a single-digit favorite in all of them. The Wildcats are -10 for Friday's game.

    Coming Up Cavaliers

    The biggest game of the weekend takes place at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., as Zion Williamson and the Duke Blue Devils face off against the defensive juggernaut that is the Virginia Cavaliers. And if history is any indication, the Cavs are going to be an incredibly popular choice in this one. Virginia has gone an incredible 9-2-1 ATS in its past 12 visits to Duke, including a 65-63 straight-up victory last Jan. 27. In addition, the road team has gone 20-6-1 ATS in the previous 27 head-to-head meetings, while the underdog has covered in the past six encounters.

    Pilots Flying vs. Zags

    Gonzaga is one a red-hot cover streak coming into Saturday's West Coast Conference encounter with Portland – but the Pilots are ready to put an end to that Bulldogs run, while reversing their own dismal cover streak in the process. Portland has gone 0-7 ATS in its past seven conference games and might appear hard-pressed to change its fortunes against a Gonzaga side that is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games. But the Pilots are 7-3-1 ATS in their previous 11 games against the Bulldogs – and with the teams going an incredible 6-1 O/U in their past seven meetings, the Portland ATS/Over double has plenty of potential here.

    Flipping the Script

    Games between Florida State and Boston College used to be automatic under plays – but things have changed dramatically for the ACC opponents as they square off Sunday afternoon at Silvio Conte Forum. The host Eagles are just 3-8-1 ATS in their previous 12 meetings with the Seminoles, but the teams have surpassed oddsmakers' expectations from an offensive standpoint with a 7-2 O/U mark in their past nine meetings. And the only two under results in that span finished below the total by two (2015) and five points (2016), respectively. This comes after the teams reeled off six consecutive Unders between 2007 and 2011.

    Team News

    Duke will likely be without first-year point guard Tre Jones for Saturday's big-time showdown with Virginia. Jones suffered a sprained AC joint earlier this week and, while he isn't expected to miss as much time as first thought, he's considered doubtful to dress against the Cavaliers. Jones is averaging 8.1 points and a team-best 5.7 assists per game.

    Michigan state shooting guard Josh Langford's strange injury situation hasn't abated, with the Spartans still not sure when he'll return to action. Langford has missed the past two weeks with a foot injury, and one seems quite sure how it happened. But Michigan State (16-2, 7-0) is rolling along even without its 15-point-per-game scorer, sitting at +1,800 to win the national title.

    Mid-Major to Watch: Wofford Terriers

    Ruff! That's how opposing defenses have had it when facing the Terriers (14-4, 6-0 Southern), who rank third in the mid-major pecking order behind Gonzaga and Buffalo. The Terriers have done most of their damage on the offensive end, coming into the weekend averaging 83.1 points per game – good for 25th in the country. They're also one of only 24 teams in the nation shooting at least 49 percent from the field. Yet despite this, Wofford has gone just 8-7 ATS and 8-7 O/U.

    One impressive thing to note about Wofford:
    Three of its four defeats on the season have come against nationally ranked teams (North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State), while the fourth came vs. Oklahoma. And of those four losses, only one came by more than 11 points. They've laid waste to the competition the rest of the time, boasting a +18.7-scoring margin that ranks seventh in the country, even with Michigan State and ahead of programs like North Carolina and Kentucky.

    National Title Odds Update

    Duke has seen its national championship odds come back to earth over the past week or so, dipping to +225 – but the Blue Devils are still the consensus choice among Vegas oddsmakers to win the NCAA title. Michigan sits second at +900, followed by Gonzaga (+1,000) and Virginia (+1,100). And as for Wofford? The Terriers are a whopping +30,000 to do the improbable.

    Betting Trends

    Road favorites have been a strong play over the previous seven days, putting together a 73-28 SU mark (72.3 percent success rate) that actually outperformed home faves over the same stretch (145-65, 69.1 percent). That puts road faves at 67.7 percent for the season, while home faves are coming through 79.9 percent of the time to date.

    Under has been the prevailing total trend in non-overtime games in the past week, with 52.5 percent of those contests coming in below the number. But with 15 of the 17 games that went to extra time going above the total, the overall tally is much closer (158 Unders, 156 overs). Non-OT contests have produced an under 53.5 percent of the time this season.

    Tennessee-Martin owns the mantel of spread bettors' worst enemy, bringing a 2-12 ATS mark into weekend action. And while the Skyhawks came close twice earlier this month – losing consecutive overtime games by five points in games where they were +3 and +3.5, respectively – they were less impressive in their last two non-covers, losing by 21 at +12.5 and falling by 24 at +6.5
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-18-2019 at 01:54 PM.

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