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Thread: Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 1/7

  1. #1
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    Default Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 1/7

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, January 7

    Good Luck on day # 7 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top six teams in country defensive eFG%

    1) Texas Tech, vs schedule #304

    2) Houston, vs schedule #295

    3) Virginia, vs schedule #200

    4) VCU, vs schedule #59

    5) Duke, vs schedule #30

    6) Utah State, vs schedule #121


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

    13) Chargers 23, Ravens 17— Baltimore’s offense was totally inept for three quarters, then Lamar Jackson came alive in 4th quarter; after being down 23-3, Ravens had ball in last 2:00 with shot at a miraculous comeback, but Jackson fumbled ball away and the Chargers advance.

    Same referee worked the Ravens-Chargers game in LA two weeks ago; end of 3rd quarter and beginning of 4th were dominated by the replay official, who had couple of tough calls to make and didn’t necessarily get them right.

    12) Chargers are 9-0 this season outside of LA; they go to Foxboro next Sunday, their third straight week on the road.

    11) Eagles 16, Bears 15— Chicago missed a 43-yard FG with 0:05 left; ball clanked off the left upright, then hit the crossbar and bounced back, as the defending champs posted an upset win.

    Eagles trailed 15-10 but drove 80 yards in 12-plays, scoring winning TD on a 4th-down pass with 0:56 left. Nick Foles may soon be called Mr January.

    Eagles visit New Orleans next Sunday; Dallas plays the Rams in LA Saturday night.

    10) Foles’ restructured contract pays him $500k for playing 33% of snaps in a playoff game and another $500k if the Eagles win that game, so he banked $1M Sunday night.

    9) Kansas Jayhawks’ star Udoka Azubuike is out for the season with a torn ligament in his right hand, very bad news for the Jayhwawks’ national title hopes.

    8) Minnesota Timberwolves fired coach/GM Tom Thibodeau Sunday, after the Timberwolves beat the Lebron-less Lakers; not sure how teams in smaller NBA markets are supposed to win- they traded their best player to Philly, then fired their coach a few weeks later. What coach are they hiring to turn things around?

    7) Early lines on next week’s NFL games:
    — Kansas City -5.5 (56.5) vs Indianapolis
    — Rams -7 (49.5) vs Dallas
    — New England -4.5 (47.5) vs LA Chargers
    — New Orleans -9 (51) vs Philadelphia

    6) Houston 90, Memphis 77— Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars are 15-0, best team in the AAC.

    5) Temple 85, Wichita State 81 OT— Owls scored last 11 points of regulation, then won game in OT. Third straight loss for a young Wichita team, tough one to bounce back from- they led by 13 at the half.

    4) Xander Schauffele shot a final round 62, won the Tournament of Champions in Kapalua Sunday, by a shot over Gary Woodland, in the first PGA Tour event of 2019.

    3) Quote of the Day, part 2, from Lakers’ coach Luke Walton; he is talking about Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram:

    “They’re trying, but they’re young. At some point, we need more passion. We need more fight. And that’s not scoring more. That’s more diving for loose balls, communicating loudly, grabbing [rebounds].

    “Brandon had some really nice crack-back rebounds tonight that we can get out and run [from]. We need that all the time from him. So, it’s not just them, but until we get healthy again, you got to play in this league with some passion and fire. It’s hard to win in this league when you are healthy. So you need to double that effort when guys are down.”

    2) Cleveland Cavaliers signed G Patrick McCaw to a two-year, $6M deal; his old team (Golden State) didn’t match the deal, but then Cleveland waived McCaw Sunday, after only three games, apparently hoping to sign him for a much lower salary later on. Had they just offered him the lower salary right away, the Warriors would’ve been more likely to have matched the offer.

    1) Right now, looks like the Oakland Raiders will have the 4th, 24th and 27th picks in April’s draft, which takes place in Nashville. Raiders have Bears’/Cowboys’ first round picks in that draft, as result of trading Kahlil Mack and Amari Cooper.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-07-2019 at 01:08 PM.

  3. #3
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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, January 7


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    NIAGARA (7 - 7) at FAIRFIELD (3 - 11) - 1/7/2019, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NIAGARA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
    NIAGARA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    FAIRFIELD is 4-1 against the spread versus NIAGARA over the last 3 seasons
    FAIRFIELD is 4-1 straight up against NIAGARA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    E WASHINGTON (3 - 11) at N COLORADO (9 - 5) - 1/7/2019, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    E WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
    E WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
    E WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
    E WASHINGTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games this season.
    E WASHINGTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road lined games this season.
    E WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    E WASHINGTON is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
    N COLORADO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    E WASHINGTON is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    N COLORADO is 2-1 against the spread versus E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    E WASHINGTON is 2-1 straight up against N COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, January 7


    Fairfield lost six of its last seven games, is 3-11 vs schedule #238; Stags are experience team #304 that 2-6 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Fairfield has #293 defensive eFG% in country. Niagara lost its last two games, giving up 79-90 points; Purple Eagles split their six true road games, winning at Wyoming/Pitt; they’re shooting 31.6% on arc (#261), 44.7% inside arc (#314). Fairfield won six of last seven games with Niagara; favorites covered last six series games. Eagles lost their last three visits to Fairfield, by 5-20-19 points.

    Home side won five of last six Eastern Washington-Northern Colorado games; Eagles lost eight of their last ten visits to Greeley. EWU is 2-11 vs schedule #60; Eagles are experience team #208 that has #318 eFG%- they’re shooting 30.1% on arc (#310), 45.4% inside arc (#302), 67.8% on foul line (#248)- they get 20% of their points behind arc, so 30.1% ain’t good enough. Northern won its first three Big Sky games, by 5-13-4 points; they played two starters 43:00+ in their OT win over Idaho Saturday. Bears are 6-1 this season vs teams ranked outside the top 200.




    NCAAB

    Monday, January 7


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    Trend Report
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    Niagara Purple Eagles
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Niagara's last 6 games
    Niagara is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Niagara's last 9 games on the road
    Niagara is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Fairfield
    Niagara is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Fairfield
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Niagara's last 12 games when playing Fairfield
    Niagara is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Fairfield
    Niagara is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Fairfield
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Niagara's last 6 games when playing on the road against Fairfield
    Fairfield Stags
    Fairfield is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Fairfield is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fairfield's last 6 games
    Fairfield is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fairfield's last 5 games at home
    Fairfield is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Niagara
    Fairfield is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Niagara
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Fairfield's last 12 games when playing Niagara
    Fairfield is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Niagara
    Fairfield is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Niagara
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fairfield's last 6 games when playing at home against Niagara

    Eastern Washington Eagles
    Eastern Washington is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games
    Eastern Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Eastern Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Washington's last 6 games on the road
    Eastern Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Northern Colorado
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Washington's last 6 games when playing Northern Colorado
    Eastern Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Northern Colorado
    Eastern Washington is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Northern Colorado
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Eastern Washington's last 9 games when playing on the road against Northern Colorado
    Northern Colorado Bears
    Northern Colorado is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Northern Colorado is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northern Colorado's last 7 games
    Northern Colorado is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
    Northern Colorado is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Eastern Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Colorado's last 6 games when playing Eastern Washington
    Northern Colorado is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Eastern Washington
    Northern Colorado is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Eastern Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Northern Colorado's last 9 games when playing at home against Eastern Washington


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-07-2019 at 01:09 PM.

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    Top 25 Betting Recap
    Joe Williams

    Each week until March Madness we'll take a look at how the Top 25 fared from college basketball, but straight up and against the number, while also taking a look at their upcoming schedule.

    Oklahoma (12-2 SU, 12-1-1 ATS) continues to roll right along, posting covers in nine consecutive contests. The only time they failed to cover was a 20-point paddling from Wisconsin (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) on a neutral-site court back on Nov. 22 as 5 1/2-point underdogs. In addition, the 'under' has connected in five of the past six games for the Sooners. As far as the Badgers, it's been all downhill since that victory against OU, as they're just 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS over the past 10 outings.

    The news out of Kansas (12-2 SU, 6-8 ATS) over the weekend wasn't good. They'll be without center Udoka Azubuike after an MRI revealed torn ligaments in his right hand during an injury in practice Friday. As a result, the Jayhawks got worked over at Iowa State (12-2 SU, 8-4-2 ATS), a team almost certain to join the Top 25 in the upcoming week. The Cyclones have won five in a row and they have covered three straight, and they should have some staying power with their next game against a ranked opponent on Jan. 16 at Texas Tech (13-1 SU, 5-9 ATS).

    Speaking of the Red Raiders, they have won three in a row since a neutral-site setback against Duke (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) on Dec. 20. However, Texas Tech has failed to cover four in a row and seven of the past eight outings. The 'under' is also 3-1 in the past four, and 5-2 across the past seven outings.

    As far as the Blue Devils, they did nothing to hurt their No. 1 ranking in a holiday break week on campus. They pushed aside Clemson (10-4 SU, 4-10 ATS) by 19 points for their fourth consecutive cover. It was a rare 'over' result in the 87-68 victory, as the 'under' was 5-0-1 in the past six games entering play, and 9-2-1 in the past 12 contests.

    Perhaps I am just old, but how interesting is it that Houston (15-0 SU, 10-4-1 ATS) and N.C. State (13-1 SU, 11-3 ATS) are ranked right next to each other at No. 18 and 19? Seeing those two teams doing well reminds me of Dereck Whittenberg, Hakeem Olajuwon and Jim Valvano, as these schools met for the 1983 national title. The Wolfpack have won seven in a row since a four-point loss at Wisconsin on Nov. 27, and they have covered seven of their past eight. It appears to be clear sailing for the Cougs, as they have won all 15 games they've played while covering eight of the past 10. UH doesn't have a game on the remaining schedule against an opponent currently ranked inside the Top 25.

    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-07-2019 at 01:10 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Monday, January 7



    Niagara @ Fairfield

    Game 841-842
    January 7, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Niagara
    43.269
    Fairfield
    43.918
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Fairfield
    by 1
    152
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Fairfield
    by 4
    156 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Niagara
    (+4); Under

    East Washington @ Northern Colorado


    Game 843-844
    January 7, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    East Washington
    51.953
    Northern Colorado
    48.875
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    East Washington
    by 3
    141
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Northern Colorado
    by 9 1/2
    146
    Dunkel Pick:
    East Washington
    (+9 1/2); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-07-2019 at 01:11 PM.

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