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Thread: Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/7

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    Default Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/7

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, January 7

    Good Luck on day # 7 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top six teams in country defensive eFG%

    1) Texas Tech, vs schedule #304

    2) Houston, vs schedule #295

    3) Virginia, vs schedule #200

    4) VCU, vs schedule #59

    5) Duke, vs schedule #30

    6) Utah State, vs schedule #121


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

    13) Chargers 23, Ravens 17— Baltimore’s offense was totally inept for three quarters, then Lamar Jackson came alive in 4th quarter; after being down 23-3, Ravens had ball in last 2:00 with shot at a miraculous comeback, but Jackson fumbled ball away and the Chargers advance.

    Same referee worked the Ravens-Chargers game in LA two weeks ago; end of 3rd quarter and beginning of 4th were dominated by the replay official, who had couple of tough calls to make and didn’t necessarily get them right.

    12) Chargers are 9-0 this season outside of LA; they go to Foxboro next Sunday, their third straight week on the road.

    11) Eagles 16, Bears 15— Chicago missed a 43-yard FG with 0:05 left; ball clanked off the left upright, then hit the crossbar and bounced back, as the defending champs posted an upset win.

    Eagles trailed 15-10 but drove 80 yards in 12-plays, scoring winning TD on a 4th-down pass with 0:56 left. Nick Foles may soon be called Mr January.

    Eagles visit New Orleans next Sunday; Dallas plays the Rams in LA Saturday night.

    10) Foles’ restructured contract pays him $500k for playing 33% of snaps in a playoff game and another $500k if the Eagles win that game, so he banked $1M Sunday night.

    9) Kansas Jayhawks’ star Udoka Azubuike is out for the season with a torn ligament in his right hand, very bad news for the Jayhwawks’ national title hopes.

    8) Minnesota Timberwolves fired coach/GM Tom Thibodeau Sunday, after the Timberwolves beat the Lebron-less Lakers; not sure how teams in smaller NBA markets are supposed to win- they traded their best player to Philly, then fired their coach a few weeks later. What coach are they hiring to turn things around?

    7) Early lines on next week’s NFL games:
    — Kansas City -5.5 (56.5) vs Indianapolis
    — Rams -7 (49.5) vs Dallas
    — New England -4.5 (47.5) vs LA Chargers
    — New Orleans -9 (51) vs Philadelphia

    6) Houston 90, Memphis 77— Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars are 15-0, best team in the AAC.

    5) Temple 85, Wichita State 81 OT— Owls scored last 11 points of regulation, then won game in OT. Third straight loss for a young Wichita team, tough one to bounce back from- they led by 13 at the half.

    4) Xander Schauffele shot a final round 62, won the Tournament of Champions in Kapalua Sunday, by a shot over Gary Woodland, in the first PGA Tour event of 2019.

    3) Quote of the Day, part 2, from Lakers’ coach Luke Walton; he is talking about Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram:

    “They’re trying, but they’re young. At some point, we need more passion. We need more fight. And that’s not scoring more. That’s more diving for loose balls, communicating loudly, grabbing [rebounds].

    “Brandon had some really nice crack-back rebounds tonight that we can get out and run [from]. We need that all the time from him. So, it’s not just them, but until we get healthy again, you got to play in this league with some passion and fire. It’s hard to win in this league when you are healthy. So you need to double that effort when guys are down.”

    2) Cleveland Cavaliers signed G Patrick McCaw to a two-year, $6M deal; his old team (Golden State) didn’t match the deal, but then Cleveland waived McCaw Sunday, after only three games, apparently hoping to sign him for a much lower salary later on. Had they just offered him the lower salary right away, the Warriors would’ve been more likely to have matched the offer.

    1) Right now, looks like the Oakland Raiders will have the 4th, 24th and 27th picks in April’s draft, which takes place in Nashville. Raiders have Bears’/Cowboys’ first round picks in that draft, as result of trading Kahlil Mack and Amari Cooper.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-07-2019 at 01:01 PM.

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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Monday, January 7



    Nashville @ Toronto

    Game 33-34
    January 7, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Nashville
    11.147
    Toronto
    12.618
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 1 1/2
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toronto
    -160
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (-160); Over

    St. Louis @ Philadelphia


    Game 35-36
    January 7, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    St. Louis
    7.940
    Philadelphia
    12.323
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 4 1/2
    8
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    -115
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-115); Over

    Minnesota @ Montreal


    Game 37-38
    January 7, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    8.881
    Montreal
    12.835
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Montreal
    by 4
    4
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Montreal
    -125
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Montreal
    (-125); Under

    Calgary @ Chicago


    Game 39-40
    January 7, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    11.186
    Chicago
    9.402
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 2
    6
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    -175
    6 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-175); Under

    Los Angeles @ San Jose


    Game 41-42
    January 7, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Los Angeles
    11.969
    San Jose
    10.659
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Los Angeles
    by 1 1/2
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Jose
    -235
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Los Angeles
    (+190); Over





    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Monday, January 7


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NASHVILLE (25-15-0-3, 53 pts.) at TORONTO (27-12-0-2, 56 pts.) - 1/7/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TORONTO is 12-3 ATS (+5.4 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    TORONTO is 31-15 ATS (+10.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 20-4 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
    NASHVILLE is 19-8 ATS (+9.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
    NASHVILLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    TORONTO is 51-66 ATS (-43.5 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TORONTO is 4-0 (+4.6 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    TORONTO is 4-0-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

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    ST LOUIS (16-19-0-4, 36 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (15-20-0-6, 36 pts.) - 1/7/2019, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ST LOUIS is 31-23 ATS (+56.0 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    ST LOUIS is 119-98 ATS (+219.2 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
    ST LOUIS is 22-13 ATS (+35.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 15-26 ATS (-15.1 Units) in all games this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 7-12 ATS (-5.4 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 424-383 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
    PHILADELPHIA is 14-24 ATS (-16.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-2-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.4 Units)

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    MINNESOTA (20-17-0-3, 43 pts.) at MONTREAL (22-15-0-5, 49 pts.) - 1/7/2019, 7:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MONTREAL is 7-1 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game this season.
    MONTREAL is 24-51 ATS (-42.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 5-0 (+5.3 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 5-0-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.9 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CALGARY (26-13-0-4, 56 pts.) at CHICAGO (16-21-0-7, 39 pts.) - 1/7/2019, 8:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 12-5 ATS (+17.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
    CALGARY is 30-19 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    CALGARY is 14-6 ATS (+20.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 49-78 ATS (-55.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 8-17 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS (+16.8 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
    CHICAGO is 24-47 ATS (+77.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 20-45 ATS (-31.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 6-2 (+4.6 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 6-2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.1 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LOS ANGELES (17-23-0-3, 37 pts.) at SAN JOSE (23-13-0-7, 53 pts.) - 1/7/2019, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LOS ANGELES is 44-52 ATS (-26.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    LOS ANGELES is 33-45 ATS (-23.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    LOS ANGELES is 21-40 ATS (-19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN JOSE is 221-161 ATS (-65.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN JOSE is 7-4 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
    SAN JOSE is 7-4-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+7.0 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NHL

    Monday, January 7


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    St. Louis Blues
    St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 11 games on the road
    St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
    St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
    St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Flyers
    Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games at home
    Philadelphia is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
    Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
    Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
    Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

    Nashville Predators
    Nashville is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
    Nashville is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
    Nashville is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Nashville is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Nashville's last 10 games on the road
    Nashville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    Nashville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing Toronto
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto Maple Leafs
    Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Toronto's last 17 games
    Toronto is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home
    Toronto is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games at home
    Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Nashville
    Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Nashville
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Nashville
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Nashville

    Minnesota Wild
    Minnesota is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
    Minnesota is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games
    Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
    Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Montreal
    Montreal Canadiens
    Montreal is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Montreal is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games
    Montreal is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Minnesota

    Calgary Flames
    Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    Calgary is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Calgary is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Calgary's last 20 games on the road
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Calgary's last 21 games when playing Chicago
    Calgary is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Chicago Blackhawks
    Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    Chicago is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Chicago's last 21 games
    Chicago is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games at home
    Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Chicago's last 21 games when playing Calgary
    Chicago is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Calgary
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing at home against Calgary

    Los Angeles Kings
    Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Los Angeles is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
    Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Los Angeles is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Los Angeles's last 12 games on the road
    Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing San Jose
    Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Jose
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Jose
    San Jose Sharks
    San Jose is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games
    San Jose is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    San Jose is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
    San Jose is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
    San Jose is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Jose's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-07-2019 at 01:05 PM.

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    Flames take goal-scoring to Chicago, and this week's NHL predictions and picks
    Monty Andrews

    The Calgary Flames remain one of the highest-scoring teams in the NHL – and that run of offensive dominance isn't likely to end Monday night, at least according to oddsmakers. The Flames' latest shot at a net-filling party highlights this week's action on the ice, a stretch that includes the Buffalo Sabres looking to end a devilish trend against New Jersey and the Anaheim Ducks well-positioned to end their eight-game slide. Here are the top games and trends to monitor in early week NHL action:

    Playing With Fire

    The Chicago Blackhawks have been solid of late, going 6-3-1 SU in their previous 10 games – but that trend could very well shift Monday night as they welcome the dangerous Flames to United Center. Calgary ranks third in the league in goals per game and has kept up that blistering pace so far in the new year, having scored 12 goals through its first three January games. Flames games are averaging nearly eight total goals so far this month, while the Blackhawks have seen an average of 6.33 goals scored in their three January contests; Monday's total is up from 6 to 6.5.

    Puckline Problems

    The Tampa Bay Lightning are far and away the top team in the NHL as we roll into 2019 – but they haven't been all that successful on the puckline as they host the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday night. The Lightning have won seven of their previous eight games but are just 3-5 against the puckline over that stretch, with four of their outright victories coming by a single goal. The Blue Jackets are on a tear, having won six of their past eight overall. But there's a silver lining for Tampa Bay puckline bettors: the Lightning have won four straight meetings between the two sides, three of those games by multiple goals.

    Devils Dig Buffalo

    Road teams haven't fared well at KeyBank Center so far this season – but you could hardly blame the New Jersey Devils for ignoring that trend as they venture to upstate New York for a Tuesday night encounter with the Buffalo Sabres. The hosts come into this one having gone 13-5-3 at KeyBank, a major reason for their half-season resurgence. But the Devils have won six consecutive games in Buffalo, while limiting the Sabres to two or fewer goals five times over that stretch. And New Jersey has been particularly dominant of late, outscoring the Sabres 9-3 in the last two meetings in Buffalo.

    Eight is Enough

    The Anaheim Ducks have lost eight consecutive games entering the week – but recent history suggests that cold snap is about to break as they host the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night. The home team has prevailed in eight of the past 11 meetings between the 1990s expansion cousins – and that bodes well for the Ducks, who haven't allowed more than one goal in a home game against the Senators since Game 5 of the 2007 Stanley Cup finals. Ottawa has also lost eight in a row, and has allowed four or more goals in seven of those defeats.
    Goalie Profile: Marc-Andre Fleury and Malcolm Subban, Vegas Golden Knights

    We're highlighting both of Vegas' sensational netminders in this space, since both players have contributed significantly to the Golden Knights' return to the upper echelon of Western Conference teams. They've combined to allow just seven goals over the course of Vegas' six-game winning streak, and are major reasons for the Golden Knights coming into the week with a sizzling 10-1-3 SU mark over their past 14 games. Once considered a longshot to return to the Stanley Cup final, the Golden Knights are now an incredible +1200 to win it all in their second season.

    Injury Update: Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks

    Canucks fans are recoiling, while Under bettors are no doubt rejoicing with word that super-rookie Pettersson is expected to miss a couple of weeks with a slightly sprained MCL in his knee. Pettersson leads all first-year players in scoring by a wide margin with 22 goals and 42 points through 38 games, and his absence represents a major blow to a Vancouver offense that has underperformed without him. The Canucks are just 2-4 SU and 1-5 O/U in six games without Pettersson this season, failing to score more than two goals in any of them.

    Hat Trick Trends

    The Under is back in charge as we watch the calendar flip to 2019. Teams have gone below the total in 26 of 49 games (53.1 percent) over the previous seven days, with seven of 11 extra-time games going Under. The season trend is too close to call, with 308 Unders compared to 307 Overs.

    The hottest trend continues to be the road favorite. Away faves have gone a sizzling 42-17-7 SU over the previous 30 days, good for a 63.6-percent success rate that easily dwarfs that of home favorites (57.5 percent) over the same span. But home faves still reign supreme for the season at 58.9 percent compared to away faves at 56.2 percent.

    Goal-scoring continues to be the story of the NHL season – but someone forgot to tell Kevin Pollack. The veteran official has been a totals bettor's dream, returning a whopping 12.72 units to the Under with an 11-22 O/U record through his 33 games. Teams have combined to score an average of just 5.3 goals in that span.

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