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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/3

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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/3

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, January 3

    Good Luck on day #3 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Top six college basketball conferences, so far this season:

    6) Pac-12— Have only one team in top 50 nationally.

    5) Big East— Seton Hall, St John’s, Villanova look like best teams.

    4) SEC— Tennessee, Auburn will challenge Kentucky this season.

    3) ACC— I’m picking Virginia to win the national title in April.

    2) Big 14— Two Michigan schools might be the two best teams.

    1) Big X— Going to be an odd season; West Virginia isn’t very good.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) Winner of the Westgate SuperBook handicapping contest this season won $1.422M Sunday night, when the Colts beat Tennessee, edging two entrants who both had Tennessee in that game- those two guys, who needed Blaine Gabbert to cover the spread in order to have a shot at the big prize, both banked $409,000.

    Imagine being involved in a game with a $1M swing and your side’s QB is Blaine Gabbert????

    12) Over last three years, Pac-12 teams are 7-15 vs spread in bowl games.

    11) Bowl records by conference, with one game left:

    Conference USA: 4-2
    SEC 6-5
    Big Ten: 5-4
    Big 12: 4-3
    Mountain West: 3-2
    Sun Belt: 3-2
    Independents: 2-1
    ACC: 5-5
    Pac-12: 3-4
    AAC: 2-5
    MAC: 1-5

    10) Central Michigan and Texas were only college football teams not to have at least one offensive play of 50+ yards this season.

    9) Texas 28, Georgia 21— Before this game Tuesday night, Texas mascot Bevo went after UGa, the Georgia mascot down in the Superdome, and that aggression carried over into the game.

    Hard to tell if Georgia let down because they didn’t make the 4-team playoff. Tom Herman’s career record vs spread as an underdog is now 9-2-1.

    8) Trailblazers won in OT at Sacramento Tuesday night; Portland’s Jusuf Nurkić came the first player since steals and blocks first became official stats in 1973 to have 20+ points, 20+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 5+ steals and 5+ blocks in same game.

    7) Oft-injured SS Troy Tulowitzki signed with the Bronx baseball team; they will pay him $600K next year while Toronto pays him $17.4M a year for two years to play against them.

    6) Texas Tech 62, West Virginia 59— This was a truly awful game; teams played hard, but they combined to go 8-37 on the arc. WVU was 18-32 on foul line in a 3-point loss— had to be a brutal game to ref— very physical, ton of missed shots. West Virginia’s guards aren’t good.

    5) Maryland 74, Nebraska 72— Cornhuskers came in as the ranked team, left with a loss.

    4) Seton Hall 80, Xavier 80— Solid conference road win for the Pirates.

    3) I’m guessing NFL teams generally dislike being on HBO’s Hard Knocks. Coaches hate distractions, and TV cameras are a pretty big distraction. Here are three ways teams can get out of being on Hard Knocks:

    — They have a first-year head coach.
    — They were in the playoffs in the last two seasons.
    — They’ve been on Hard Knocks in any of the last ten years.

    Taking those rules into account, only five teams can be forced into being HBO’s focus next summer: 49ers, Raiders, Redskins, Giants and Lions.

    2) NFL TV ratings were up 5% this season, good news for the league.

    1) Rough couple of days for people passing away, especially for 76-year olds:
    — Tyler Trent, 20, the Purdue fan who was an inspiration to so many the last few months, passed away from bone cancer over the weekend.
    — Wrestling announcer Gene Okerlund, 76, passed away after a lengthy illness.
    — Daryl Dragon, 76, the captain in Captain and Tennille, passed away on Monday.
    — One of the most underrated funny men ever, Bob Einstein, passed away at age 76. Einstein was a talented comedy writer- he was in Oceans 13 among other movies. His character Super Dave, a knock-off of Evil Knievel’s daredevil antics, made people laugh for years.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    Chris David

    Game of the Night (TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET)

    Houston (21-15 SU, 18-17-1 ATS) at Golden State (25-13 SU, 16-22 ATS)


    All eyes will be on Oracle Arena this Thursday as the Rockets will meet the Warriors in the Bay Area for the first time this season. BookMaker.eu opened Golden State as a healthy eight-point favorite and some bettors could be scratching their heads based on the current form of both teams.

    Houston has quietly won five straight and 10 of its last 11 games. More importantly, the club has gone 9-1-1 against the spread during this run and the last five victories came without the services of point guard Chris Paul, who is still nursing a hamstring injury. While the Rockets have been hot, the Warriors are near the bottom of the league for bettors (16-22 ATS) this season and they’ve gone 8-12 ATS at home despite owning one of the best straight up home records (15-5).

    The Warriors have won and covered their last two games, both decisions came by double digits and they were on the road. At home, Golden State has dropped its last two games from Oracle and its just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 contests from Oakland. Make a note that head coach Steve Kerr and company haven’t put together three straight wins since it ripped off four victories in a row in early December.

    NBA handicapper Tony Mejia weighed in on the marquee matchup for Thursday.

    He said, “Over James Harden’s last 10 games, he’s averaging 40.8 points per game and is the first player who has scored 30 or more in 10 consecutive contests since 2014. He’s averaged 8.9 assists in putting the Rockets on his back for wins in 10 of 11 and knows exactly what he’ll be facing here with Klay Thompson as a primary defender who will help try and steer him into other defenders. He shot just 8-for-23 in the only meeting against Golden State thus far, which included a 4-for-14 showing from 3-point range. Houston took advantage of Steph Curry’s absence and rolled 107-86, pulling away in the second half, but Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and James Ennis III all participated. It remains to be seen whether Mike D’Antoni will have any of the three available since Gordon and Ennis are close to a return. If the Rockets remain depleted, it will be easier for the Warriors to make Harden a distributor.”

    There’s definitely a valid reason to stay away from the Rockets tonight and its directly attributed to its road mark. Houston has struggled away from the Toyota Center (10-8 SU, 8-10 ATS) this season and it’s just 3-7 in last 10 as a visitor.

    Still, Harden has been on fire and nobody can dismiss Houston’s league-best record against winning teams (14-5) this season and eight of its last 10 came against clubs with .500 or better records.

    Last season, Houston won two games at Oracle as a live underdog. It stunned the Warriors 122-121 on opening night with a late rally and it also captured Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals with a 95-92 win. The ‘under’ connected easily in that postseason game and the low side is on a 7-1 run in this series, which includes a 6-1 result in last year’s conference finals.


    Toronto (28-11 SU, 16-22-1 ATS) at San Antonio (21-17 SU, 22-15 ATS)

    The first game of the TNT double-header on Thursday also offers a lot of intrigue as Raptors small forward Kawhi Leonard will make his first trip back to San Antonio. Mejia offered up his thoughts on the possible drama from the AT&T Center. “Kawhi Leonard shot 17 free-throws in scoring a career-high 45 points in Toronto’s 122-116 over Utah on Tuesday, attacking the paint relentlessly despite the presence of elite defensive center Rudy Gobert,” said Mejia.

    “He’s really been aggressive over the past few games and looks all the way back after missing most of last season, so Spurs fans will be able to boo an effort that helped carry them to another title in ’14. The manner in which he forced his way out of San Antonio ensures he isn’t going to get a fond welcome in his return, but you can expect him to handle the scorn like any other basketball-playing robot would. The Raptors have lost four of the last five road games that Leonard has participated in, but he’s averaged 28 points and 7.4 rebounds in those contests.”

    San Antonio opened as a 1 ½-point home favorite for the matchup and it should receive plenty of support perhaps more for new Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan, who was traded from Toronto for Leonard in the blockbuster deal last summer. The former USC standout has posted similar numbers in his first season with San Antonio but he still can’t buy a shot from 3-point land (17.5%) and surprisingly the Spurs lead the league from shooting percentage from distance (39.7%).

    Support at home hasn’t been an issue recently for the Spurs, who have won and covered nine of their last 10 home games. The offense (118.1 PPG) and defense (101.4 PPG) have both been amazing during this stretch and two of their recent victories came against another pair of Eastern Conference contenders in the Celtics (120-111) and 76ers (123-96). Will the trend continue?

    As Mejia noted, the Raptors have been in a funk on the road (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS) and their only win was a two-point decision at Miami. Even though the club won’t have point guard Kyle Lowry (back) available, the confidence should still be high knowing they’ve gone 11-4 versus the West this season and that includes an impressive 7-2 mark on the road. The Spurs have gone 5-5 versus the East. At home versus the East, with the two aforementioned wins coming versus Boston and Philadelphia.

    The home team has won the past three games in this series but all of the games were decided by four points or less.


    Denver (24-11 SU, 19-16 ATS) at Sacramento (19-18 SU, 21-15-1 ATS)

    The other game on tap for Thursday takes place from the Golden 1 Center in Northern California as Sacramento (+2 ½) will look to cool off Denver as a home underdog. The Nuggets have won seven of their last nine games and they currently own the best winning percentage in the West. However, Denver has been mired in a funk at the betting counter, dropping its last five games versus the number.

    It’s also lost its last two games on the road and its record as a visitor (9-8) is much different than playing at the Pepsi Center (15-3) and that’s been a common theme for this club. A better barometer for me is what team’s doing against winning clubs and Denver (12-8) has answered the bell this season. The same can’t be said for Sacramento, who is 7-14 against teams above .500 while going 12-4 versus losing clubs.

    The Kings have been better at home (10-8 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) this season but it enters this game with a pedestrian 5-5 record over the last 10 and the last three wins came by a combined seven points.

    The Nuggets have won and covered six of the past seven encounters between the pair, which includes a 126-112 over Sacramento on Oct. 23 as an 11 ½-point favorite. The ‘over’ connected (228 ½) in that game and the number for this matchup opened a tad lower (227 ½). The Kings own the best ‘over’ mark (25-12) in the NBA but their total numbers have been a stalemate (9-9) at home. Denver has leaned to the ‘under’ (20-14-1) and that includes a 10-6-1 record away from home.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-03-2019 at 02:33 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, January 3



    Toronto @ San Antonio

    Game 519-520
    January 3, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    125.209
    San Antonio
    123.773
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 1 1/2
    219
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Antonio
    by 1 1/2
    216 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (+1 1/2); Over

    Denver @ Sacramento


    Game 521-522
    January 3, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    119.360
    Sacramento
    115.431
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 4
    231
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 3
    227 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (-3); Over

    Houston @ Golden State


    Game 523-524
    January 3, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    118.556
    Golden State
    130.812
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 12 1/2
    229
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 8
    225 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Golden State
    (-8); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, January 3


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    TORONTO (28 - 11) at SAN ANTONIO (21 - 17) - 1/3/2019, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN ANTONIO is 1069-934 ATS (+41.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 846-719 ATS (+55.1 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games this season.
    SAN ANTONIO is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN ANTONIO is 353-291 ATS (+32.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN ANTONIO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN ANTONIO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN ANTONIO is 4-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DENVER (24 - 11) at SACRAMENTO (19 - 18) - 1/3/2019, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 6-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 6-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    HOUSTON (21 - 15) at GOLDEN STATE (25 - 13) - 1/3/2019, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a division game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 61-77 ATS (-23.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 7-7 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 8-7 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    11 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, January 3


    This is Kawhi Leonard’s return to San Antonio. Toronto won five of last seven games, is 2-7 vs spread in last nine- they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five road games. Over is 4-3 in their last seven road games. San Antonio won 10 of its last 13 games; they’re 9-1 vs spread in last ten home games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Spurs won four of last five series games; Raptors are 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to the Alamo. Three of last four series games stayed under.

    Nuggets won last three games, but are 0-5 vs spread in last five; they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five road games. Five of their last six games went over. Sacramento is 3-5 in its last eight games, 5-3 vs spread in last eight home games. Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. Denver won/covered six of last seven games with the Kings; they’re 2-2 vs spread in last four trips to Sacramento. Three of last four series games went over.

    Houston won 10 of its last 11 games; they’re 3-7 vs spread in last ten road games. Four of their last six games stayed under. Golden State won six of its last nine games; they’re 2-12 vs spread in last 14 home games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Rockets/Warriors split their last ten games; Houston is 1-2 vs spread in last three visits to Bay Area. Eight of last nine series games stayed under.




    NBA

    Thursday, January 3


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Toronto Raptors
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
    Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Toronto is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games on the road
    Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
    Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
    Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
    Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
    San Antonio Spurs
    San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    San Antonio is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 12 games
    San Antonio is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    San Antonio is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games at home
    San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
    San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
    San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

    Denver Nuggets
    Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
    Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
    Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Sacramento
    Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Sacramento
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Denver's last 16 games when playing Sacramento
    Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
    Sacramento Kings
    Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Sacramento's last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Sacramento's last 11 games at home
    Sacramento is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
    Sacramento is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Sacramento's last 16 games when playing Denver
    Sacramento is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Sacramento's last 12 games when playing at home against Denver

    Houston Rockets
    Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Houston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Houston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
    Houston is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Golden State
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Golden State
    Houston is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Houston is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
    Golden State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games
    Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Golden State is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games at home
    Golden State is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Houston
    Golden State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
    Golden State is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-03-2019 at 02:35 PM.

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    Hoop Trends - Thursday
    Vince Akins

    ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

    -- The Spurs are 10-0 ATS (+11.75 ppg) when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.


    ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

    -- The Rockets are 0-11 ATS (-14.36 ppg) with more than one day of rest off a home win and they are they are facing a team that is averaging 24-plus assists per game.


    OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

    -- The Kings are 12-0 OU (+10.96 ppg) as a dog with rest off a home game in which they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses and it is before the All-Star break.


    OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

    -- The Warriors are 0-12 OU (-16.00 ppg) at home off a 10+ win when they shot better than 50 percent from the field in each of their last two games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-03-2019 at 02:41 PM.

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