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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sun., Dec. 30)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sun., Dec. 30)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, December 30

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Betting Recap - Week 16
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 16 Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 12-3
    Against the Spread 5-8-2

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 7-8
    Against the Spread 1-12-2

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 6-8-1

    National Football League Year-to-Date Results
    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 154-82-2
    Against the Spread 104-124-10

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 143-93-2
    Against the Spread 112-116-10

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 110-126-2

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Ravens (+4, ML +180) at Chargers, 22-10
    Jaguars (+3, ML +150) at Dolphins, 17-7

    The largest favorite to cover
    Rams (-14) at Cardinals, 31-9
    Vikings (-6.5) at Lions, 27-9
    Bears (-3.5) at 49ers, 14-9

    Road Kings

    -- It was a great day to beat the road teams. Heading into the Sunday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs-Seattle Seahawks the away team was 12-0-2 against the spread (ATS). The Seahawks ended up being the first home team to cover, as they entered the SNF game as short 'dogs (+1) at CenturyLink Field.

    Dressed To The Nines

    -- It's more of a coincidence than anything else, obviously, but it's fun if you like numbers. The teams which covered the highest spreads in Week 16 each allowed nine points. The Los Angeles Rams laid the most points (-14) in their 31-9 road win over the Arizona Cardinals. The Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) won and covered 27-9 on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Chicago Bears also posted a 14-9 win against the San Francisco 49ers in a chippy game, covering a 3.5-point number at most shops.

    Total Recall

    -- The game with the highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Seattle Seahawks (54.5), and it got off to a bit of a slow start. However, it ended up going well over with 45 total points in the second half. The Pittsburgh Steelers-New Orleans Saints (53.5) game was expected to be a shootout, and it didn't disappoint. While there were 52 points on the board through three quarters, there were some tense moments for a bit in the fourth with just seven total points, but it cashed the over.

    -- Perhaps the worst bad beat of the season occurred in the Washington Redskins-Tennessee Titans (38) game on Saturday night. It's the kind of game you're likely to see on ESPN's 'Bad Beats' segment with Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve. The Titans were leading 18-16 on the final, last gasp for the Redskins. DB Malcolm Butler picked off a pass with no time left and rather than go down, he worked as hard as possible to run it back all the way for a pick-six. It flipped what should have been an 'under' result to an 'over', and affected some teaser plays, too.

    -- The 'over/under' went 1-1 this week through the first two primetime games with the Monday nighter between the Denver Broncos-Oakland Raiders (43.5) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 25-24 (51.0%).

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Colts TE Eric Ebron (concussion) left the Week 16 battles against the Giants and he entered the league's mandated concussion protocol.

    -- Falcons RB Tevin Coleman (groin) was unable to return to Sunday's game in Carolina, leaving Atlanta down its top three running backs.

    -- 49ers RB Matt Breida (ankle) left the Week 16 battle against the Bears after turning an ankle and he was unable to return.

    -- Texans WR Demaryius Thomas (Achilles') was forced out of Sunday's game in Philadelphia and he might have suffered a long-term injury.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The 'over' has cashed in six straight meetings between the Lions and Packers. The favorite is 20-7 ATS in the past 27 in this series, and the Lions are 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to Lambeau.

    -- The over is 4-1 in the past battle between the Falcons and Buccaneers, although the under is 5-2 in the past seven at the RayJay. The favorite is 11-4-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings.

    -- The over has hit in five straight betweeen the Panthers and Saints under the dome, and the over is 7-2 in the past nine in this series. The Panthers are 13-5 ATS in the past 18 trips to NOLA, with the underdog 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. The road team is also 24-11 ATS in the past 35.

    -- The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. The under is 19-8 in the past 27 meetings, with the under 16-5 in the past 21 in K.C.

    -- The under is 5-0 in the past five between the Jets and Patriots. The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight, although the Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 in this series.

    -- The Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven trips to Houston, with the road team 4-1 ATS in the past five and the underdog also 4-1 ATS in the past five.

    -- The home team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 battles between the Dolphins and Bills, with Miami 1-5 ATS in the past six trips to Buffalo.

    -- The under has connected in five straight meetings between the Cowboys and the Giants.

    -- The favorite has hit in four straight meetings between the Eagles and Redskins.

    -- Chicago is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with Minnesota, although the home team is 23-9 ATS in the past 32 meetings. The under is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings, including 5-2 in the past seven in the Twin Cities.

    -- The Cardinals are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings with the Seahawks, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five in Seattle. The road team is also 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight, with the underdog 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven.

    -- The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the past five road games against the Rams.

    -- Cincinnati is 7-19-1 ATS in the past 27 meetings with the Steelers, including 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Steel City. The under is also 7-2 in the past nine meetings in Pittsburgh.

    -- The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings between the Chargers and Broncos, while the Bolts are 8-2-5 ATS in the past 15 trips to the Mile High City. The over is 4-0 in the past four battles in Denver.

    -- The Browns are just 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings with the Ravens, although the road team is 12-5-1 ATS in the past 18 in this series. The under has cashed in four straight meetings, and the under is 6-1 in the past seven battles in Charm City.

    -- The home team has covered in five of the past seven trips, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The Colts are 11-3 ATS in the past 14 in the series with the over 4-1 in the past five meetings in the Music City.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-26-2018 at 01:13 AM.

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    Eagles' season on line, but early bettors hit Redskins' odds in NFL Week 17
    Patrick Everson

    The final week of the NFL regular season is shaping up to be a doozy, with playoff berths and positioning still very much in the air, beyond the certainty of the Saints being No. 1 in the NFC. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of key matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+7)

    Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia remains in the NFC playoff chase, though it needs to win and get some help in Week 17. The Eagles (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) blew a 13-point third-quarter lead against Houston, but got a field goal as time expired to claim a 32-30 victory as 1-point road favorites in Week 16.

    Washington still had very slim postseason hopes heading into Week 16, but now is entirely out of the hunt. The Redskins (7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS) had a shot to beat Tennessee late, but Josh Johnson – the fourth QB of the year for the ‘Skins – threw a pick-six as time expired in a 25-16 loss as 11.5-point road underdogs.

    “We opened the Eagles -7, took some money on the Redskins and moved to 6.5,” Murray said. “The Eagles are in the playoffs with a win and a Vikings loss, but the Redskins have been playing tough the last couple of weeks.”


    Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

    Chicago has already clinched the NFC North and the No. 3 seed, but could move up to No. 2 and a bye with a Week 17 win and a Rams loss to the visiting 49ers. In Week 16, the Bears (11-4 SU and ATS) slogged their way to a 14-9 victory at San Francisco as 4-point faves.

    Minnesota will make the playoffs with a Week 17 win and could still get there with a loss, though it would need some help. The Vikings (8-6-1 SU and ATS) trailed at Detroit 9-0 in the second quarter, then scored 27 unanswered points in a 27-9 victory laying 6.5 points.

    “They had to move this game to the (later) time slot,” Murray said, noting this contest was originally set for 1 p.m. ET and was moved to 4:25 p.m. ET. “Otherwise, it would’ve given the Rams a big advantage. Los Angeles could have sat back and watched this game to see if the Bears win. If Chicago doesn’t win, the Rams clinch the bye. Vikings win, and they’re in.”

    The line was still Vikings -6.5 late Sunday night, with bettors unsure of where to take the game yet.


    Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

    Baltimore could win the AFC North, land a wild-card spot or miss the playoffs altogether, although a Week 17 win cements the division title and a postseason bid. The Ravens (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) won five of their last six games, including a 22-10 Week 17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers as 4-point road pups.

    Cleveland is finishing up a very un-Cleveland like year, after going 0-16 SU and 4-12 ATS in 2017-18. Like Baltimore, the Browns (7-7-1 SU, 9-6 ATS) have won five of six, beating Cincinnati 26-18 giving 10 points at home in Week 17.

    “We opened Ravens -6.5, then moved down to 5.5 to get in line with the market,” Murray said. “The Ravens win the AFC North with a victory here. But those Browns are dangerous.”


    Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (no line)

    Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last nine games and would be in the playoffs right now, though it must win in Week 17 to stay there. The Colts (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) went off as 10-point home favorites against the Giants in Week 16, but trailed 14-0 early and never led until a last-minute touchdown clinched a 28-27 victory.

    Tennessee is in the same boat as Indy, as it’s a winner-take-all, loser-goes-home game. In Week 16, the Titans (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) beat Washington 25-16 giving 11.5 points at home, but lost quarterback Marcus Mariota to a stinger. Mariota’s status for this Week 17 Sunday nighter has not been announced yet.

    “We’re waiting to hear on Mariota,” Murray said in noting why the line wasn’t posted Sunday night. “If he goes, this game should be around a pick ’em. If he doesn’t, I’d expect the Colts to be in the neighborhood of -3/-3.5.”

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 17


    Sunday, December 30

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    DALLAS (9 - 6) at NY GIANTS (5 - 10) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OAKLAND (3 - 11) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 4) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CAROLINA (6 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 2) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 4-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NY JETS (4 - 11) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 5) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PHILADELPHIA (8 - 7) at WASHINGTON (7 - 8) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DETROIT (5 - 10) at GREEN BAY (6 - 8 - 1) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    DETROIT is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 110-80 ATS (+22.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 192-138 ATS (+40.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 69-43 ATS (+21.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    JACKSONVILLE (5 - 10) at HOUSTON (10 - 5) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CLEVELAND (7 - 7 - 1) at BALTIMORE (9 - 6) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ATLANTA (6 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 10) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.
    ATLANTA is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MIAMI (7 - 8) at BUFFALO (5 - 10) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
    MIAMI is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
    MIAMI is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    MIAMI is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 6) at TENNESSEE (9 - 6) - 12/30/2018, 8:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CINCINNATI (6 - 9) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 6 - 1) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CHICAGO (11 - 4) at MINNESOTA (8 - 6 - 1) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
    MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
    CHICAGO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
    CHICAGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CHARGERS (11 - 4) at DENVER (6 - 8) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 3-2 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ARIZONA (3 - 12) at SEATTLE (9 - 6) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 11) at LA RAMS (12 - 3) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    LA RAMS is 190-239 ATS (-72.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 190-239 ATS (-72.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    LA RAMS is 147-190 ATS (-62.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 66-102 ATS (-46.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-26-2018 at 01:15 AM.

  5. #5
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    NFL

    Week 17


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, December 30

    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
    Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Carolina is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
    Carolina is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New Orleans
    Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
    Carolina is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    Carolina is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
    New Orleans is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
    New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games at home
    New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Carolina
    New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
    New Orleans is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Carolina
    New Orleans is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games
    Jacksonville is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
    Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Houston
    Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston Texans
    Houston is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games
    Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
    Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
    Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
    Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
    Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
    Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    Detroit is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    Detroit is 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Detroit is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 9 games
    Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Green Bay is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
    Green Bay is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit

    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games
    Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games on the road
    Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Atlanta is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
    Tampa Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
    Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
    Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

    Dallas Cowboys
    Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Dallas's last 24 games
    Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 11 games on the road
    Dallas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
    Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    NY Giants is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games
    NY Giants is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    NY Giants is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of NY Giants's last 19 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
    NY Giants is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Dallas
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Dallas
    NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
    NY Jets is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
    NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing New England
    NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 9 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England Patriots
    New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    New England is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games
    New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games at home
    New England is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing NY Jets
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
    New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets

    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
    Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
    Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games
    Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Buffalo's last 23 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Miami
    Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
    Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
    Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Chicago is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
    Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 14 games when playing Minnesota
    Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Minnesota Vikings
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
    Minnesota is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    Minnesota is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games at home
    Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
    Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games when playing Chicago
    Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago

    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
    Oakland is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Oakland's last 21 games
    Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Oakland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
    Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    Oakland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
    Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 12 games at home
    Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Oakland
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
    Kansas City is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Oakland
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
    Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    Cleveland is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
    Cleveland is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
    Cleveland is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games on the road
    Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
    Cleveland is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games when playing Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
    Cleveland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Baltimore's last 13 games
    Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Baltimore is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
    Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
    Baltimore is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Baltimore is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland

    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Washington
    Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Philadelphia is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Philadelphia's last 23 games when playing on the road against Washington
    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
    Washington is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home
    Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
    Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    Washington is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Washington's last 23 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    Arizona is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Arizona's last 25 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Seattle
    Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
    Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
    Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
    Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    San Francisco is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games
    San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
    San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
    San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
    San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    LA Rams is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
    LA Rams is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games at home
    LA Rams is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    LA Rams is 6-14-1 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
    LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    LA Rams is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco

    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
    LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
    LA Chargers is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 12 games when playing Denver
    LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    Denver is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
    Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
    Denver is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
    Denver is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    Denver is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games when playing LA Chargers
    Denver is 3-8-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
    Indianapolis is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 11 games on the road
    Indianapolis is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Tennessee
    Indianapolis is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Tennessee
    Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
    Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
    Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games at home
    Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
    Tennessee is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
    Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
    Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-26-2018 at 01:15 AM.

  6. #6
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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 17



    Cowboys (9-6) @ Giants (5-10)— Cowboys clinched NFC East, have home playoff game next week, so this is meaningless for them. Dallas won three of its last four games; they’re 2-5 on road this year- they’re 5-4 vs spread as underdogs this year. Giants are 4-3 in last seven games, scoring 27+ points in five of those games; they were outscored 47-16 in second half of last three games. NY is 1-0-1 as a favorite this season. Dallas won 8 of last 10 series games, winning four of last six series games played here; Cowboys won first meeting 20-13 in Week 2, outrushing Giants 132-35. Three of last four Dallas games stayed under total; six of last seven Giant games went over.

    Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (13-2)— Saints clinched #1 seed in NFC; this game means nothing to them. New Orleans (-6) nipped Carolina 12-9 in Monday night slugfest two weeks ago, but Newton is out now and backup Heinecke (left elbow) was banged up. Rookie Allen (4-4 for 38 yards LW) would get nod if Heinecke can’t go. Panthers lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread), dropping last four road tilts (they were favored in three of those). Saints don’t need this game, so proceed with caution; NO covered four of its last five home games. Last four Carolina games stayed under the total; Panthers stayed under their team total six of last seven weeks. Under is 5-1 in Saints’ last six games.

    Jets (4-11) @ Patriots (10-5)— New England needs win here to clinch #2 seed and bye next week in playoffs. Patriots ran ball for 215 yards in 27-13 (-9.5) win at Swamp Stadium in Week 12; NE had 10 plays of 20+ yards, gained 498 yards for game. Patriots are 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last seven played here (41-3/26-6 last two years). Jets lost eight of their nine games; they’re 3-4 vs spread on road this year, two of five road losses by more than 7 points. Patriots split their last six games (2-4 vs spread); with WR Gordon gone, NE ran ball for 273 yards vs Buffalo LW. NE is 5-2 as home favorites this year, with five wins by 12+ points. Seven of last eight Patriot games stayed under total; last four Jet games went over.

    Eagles (8-7) @ Redskins (7-8)— Eagles need win here and Viking loss to make playoffs; they beat Washington 28-13 (-6.5) four weeks ago, converting 7-13 on 3rd down, outgaining Skins 436-235. Philly won last three series games, by 13-10-15 points, after losing previous five in series- they lost three of last four visits here. Foles threw for 471 yards LW in 32-30 win over Houston; they won four of last five games, scoring 30-32 points vs Rams/Texans last couple games. Eagles are 2-4 in true road games, scoring 34-30 points in the wins; they’re 2-7 when they score less than 25 points. Redskins are playing their #4 QB; they lost five of last six games. Four of last five Philly games went over total; four of last six Redskin games also went over.

    Lions (5-10) @ Packers (6-8-1)— Detroit led 24-0 at half, held on for 31-23 home win over Green Bay in Week 5; Packers threw for 423 yards, outgained Lions 521-264, but lost three fumbles (-3 in turnovers). Lions are 6-4 in last ten series games after a 1-15 skid; they won two of last three visits here, after an 0-24 drought. Lions lost seven of their last nine games; they’re 2-5 SU on road, 3-2 as road underdogs- Detroit got shut out in second half of last two games. Green Bay is 4-0-1 this season when they score 29+ points, 2-8 when they don’t; Packers are 5-1-1 at home this year, 3-3 as home favorite. Eight of last nine Detroit games, six of last nine Packer games stayed under the total.

    Jaguars (5-10) @ Texans (10-5)— Houston needs win here and Patriot loss to jump up to #2 seed and first round bye. Texans (+5) won 20-7 at Jacksonville in Week 7; they had 16-yard edge in field position, in game where yardage was only 272-259, Texans. Houston is 12-4 in last 16 series games; Jaguars lost three of last four visits here. In their last four games, Jaguars scored two TD’s on 38 drives; they scored TD on special teams/defense in last two games. Jags are 2-5 in true road games, 1-2-1 as road underdogs. Houston won 10 of last 12 games with losses by total of five points; Texans are 3-4 vs spread as home favorites this season. Three of last four Jax games stayed under total; four of last six Houston games went over.

    Browns (7-7-1) @ Ravens (9-6)— Ravens need win here to clinch AFC North and get home game in playoffs next week. Baltimore is 18-3 in last 21 series games, but lost 12-9 in OT at Cleveland in Week 5; Ravens didn’t score TD in game, kicking two FG’s in three trips to red zone. That was Mayfield’s first win as NFL starter- he threw for 304 yards. Cleveland has chance for winning season; they’ve won five of last six games, as Williams auditions for HC job. Browns are 3-3-1 as road underdogs this year. Ravens won five of last six games, covering last five; they’re 4-3 as a home favorite. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Cleveland games, 3-1 in Ravens’ last four. Under is 4-0-2 in Browns’ opponents’ total the last six games.

    Falcons (6-9) @ Buccaneers (5-10)— Atlanta (-3.5) won first meeting 34-29 in Week 6, in game where Bucs outgained them 512-416. Falcons won last four series games; they’re 4-2 in last six visits to Tampa Bay. Average total in last five series games is 57.8. Atlanta won its last couple games, allowing 14-10 points; they’re 2-5 SU on road, 1-3 as road underdogs. Falcons are 4-1 when they allow 20 or less points, 2-8 when they allow more. Tampa Bay lost its last three games; they’re -22 in turnovers in their 10 losses, +4 in their wins. Bucs are 4-3 at home this year. 1-1-1 as home favorites- they were outscored 45-10 in second half of last three games. Five of last seven Falcon games stayed under total;

    Dolphins (7-8) @ Bills (5-10)— Bills (+4.5) lost 21-17 at Miami four weeks ago, despite running ball for 198 yards and outgaining Dolphins 415-175. Buffalo is still 7-4 in last 11 series games, with four of last five decided by 6 or fewer points. Bills won five of last six series games played here. Miami is 4-8 in its last dozen games after a 3-0 start; Dolphins lost their last six road games, are 2-5 as road underdogs. In their last four games, Miami converted 7-37 third down plays. Buffalo lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-4 at home this year, 0-2 as home favorites. Bills are 1-10 when they allow more than 14 points. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Miami games, 3-1 in Buffalo’s last four.

    Bengals (6-9) @ Steelers (8-6-1)— Pitt needs win here and a Cleveland upset over the Ravens to make the playoffs. Steelers won 28-21 (+2.5) at Cincinnati in Week 6, outgaining Bengals 481-275. Cincy lost last seven series games, losing 24-16/29-14 in last two visits to Pittsburgh. Cincy lost eight of its last ten games overall; they’re 2-5 on road this year, but 5-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Pittsburgh lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-3 at home, winning four of last five. Pitt is 3-3 as home favorite this year. Steelers’ last three losses were all by three points, as Tomlin continues to struggle with game management. Over is 5-2-1 in Bengals’ last eight games; four of last six Steeler games stayed under.

    Bears (11-4) @ Vikings (8-6-1)— Minnesota makes playoff with win here or an Eagle loss; Bears can get first round bye if they win and Rams get upset by SF. Chicago won/covered eight of last nine games; in their last three games, they allowed only one offensive TD on 31 drives. Chicago is 4-3 SU on road, 1-0 as road underdog. Minnesota won its last two games, allowing one TD on 22 drives; Vikings won/covered their last three home games. Bears (-2.5) beat Vikings 25-20 in first meeting in Week 11, outrushing Minnesota 148-22 and scoring a defensive TD in only their 2nd win in last eight series games. Chicago lost its last six visits to Minnesota. Four of last five Viking games, last three Chicago games stayed under total.

    Cardinals (3-12) @ Seahawks (9-6)— Seahawks won five of last six games; they’re 5-2 SU at home, 3-1-1 as home favorites- they ran ball for 196 ypg the last four weeks. Arizona lost its last three games by combined score of 93-26; Cardinals are 3-4 as road underdogs this year. Seattle needs win to get #5 seed and avoid going to windy Chicago (probably) next week. Seahawks (-3.5) won 20-17 in Arizona in Week 4, running ball for 171 yards even though they were 0-10 on 3rd down conversions. Teams are 3-3-1 last seven times they met; last six meetings were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Arizona won 34-31/26-24/39-32 in last three visits here. Six of last seven Seattle games went over total; under is 3-1 in Arizona’s last four.

    49ers (4-11) @ Rams (12-3)— Rams need win to get #2 seed in NFC and get next week off; they beat 49ers 39-10 (-9.5) in Week 7, with +4 turnover margin. LA won only four of last six series games, but Rams rested 20 starters in SF’s win here in Week 17 LY. 49ers are 0-7 SU on road, with four of seven losses by 8+ points; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs- their last three games (all at home) were all decked by 6 or fewer points. Niners scored only one TD on 19 drives in their last two games. Rams are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games, losing two of last three SU; they ran ball for 269 yards in rout of Arizona LW. LA is 6-1 SU at home, 3-4 as home favorite this year. Under is 6-3 in 49ers’ last nine games, 3-1 in Rams’ last four.

    Colts (9-6) @ Titans (9-6)— Mariota is banged up; Titans signed Austin Davis as #3 QB, have to check Mariota’s status- Cassel is #2 QB. Winner plays a playoff game next week; loser starts preparing for the draft. Colts (-1.5) thrashed Tennessee 38-10 at home in Week 12, their 17th win in last 20 series games. Indy won five of last six visits here. Indy won eight of last nine games, rallying back from down 14-0 at home to nip Giants LW. Colts are 3-4 on road, 4-3 vs spread. Tennessee won last four games, allowing total of 25 points in last three, giving up 2 TD’s on 27 drives). Titans are 6-1 SU at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Under is 4-1-1 in Colts’ last six games, over is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last five games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-26-2018 at 01:16 AM.

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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 17



    Sunday, December 30

    Dallas @ NY Giants


    Game 301-302
    December 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    131.330
    NY Giants
    130.317
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 1
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Giants
    by 6 1/2
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+6 1/2); Under

    Oakland @ Kansas City


    Game 303-304
    December 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    125.002
    Kansas City
    142.538
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 19 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 13 1/2
    53
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-13 1/2); Under

    Carolina @ New Orleans


    Game 305-306
    December 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    138.483
    New Orleans
    134.573
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Carolina
    by 4
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 9
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Carolina
    (+9); Under

    NY Jets @ New England


    Game 307-308
    December 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    120.599
    New England
    136.120
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 15 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 13 1/2
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-13 1/2); Under

    Philadelphia @ Washington


    Game 309-310
    December 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    123.538
    Washington
    119.165
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 4 1/2
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 7
    42
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+7); Under

    Detroit @ Green Bay


    Game 311-312
    December 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    120.036
    Green Bay
    133.249
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 13
    33
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 7 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-7 1/2); Under

    Jacksonville @ Houston


    Game 313-314
    December 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    129.457
    Houston
    129.991
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    Even
    28
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 7
    40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (+7); Under

    Cleveland @ Baltimore


    Game 315-316
    December 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    130.846
    Baltimore
    138.634
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 8
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 5 1/2
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (-5 1/2); Under

    Atlanta @ Tampa Bay


    Game 317-318
    December 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    135.504
    Tampa Bay
    126.311
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 9
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 1 1/2
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (+1 1/2); Under

    Miami @ Buffalo


    Game 319-320
    December 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    124.067
    Buffalo
    133.272
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Buffalo
    by 9
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Buffalo
    by 3
    39 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Buffalo
    (-3); Over

    Indianapolis @ Tennessee


    Game 321-322
    December 30, 2018 @ 8:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    134.477
    Tennessee
    135.012
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 1
    36
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 3 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (+3 1/2); Under

    Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh


    Game 323-324
    December 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    122.799
    Pittsburgh
    134.901
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 12
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 14 1/2
    46
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (+14 1/2); Under

    Chicago @ Minnesota


    Game 325-326
    December 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    130.441
    Minnesota
    136.219
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 6
    32
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 4
    40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-4); Under

    LA Chargers @ Denver


    Game 327-328
    December 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    133.529
    Denver
    131.972
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 1 1/2
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 6 1/2
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (+6 1/2); Under

    Arizona @ Seattle


    Game 329-330
    December 30, 2018 @

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    118.831
    Seattle
    136.297
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 17 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 13
    38
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (-13); Over

    San Francisco @ LA Rams


    Game 331-332
    December 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    134.837
    LA Rams
    142.731
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 8
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 10
    48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+10); Under
    Last edited by Udog; 12-28-2018 at 11:40 AM.

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    Tech Trends - Week 17
    Bruce Marshall

    Sunday, Dec. 30

    DALLAS at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    G-Men 1-5-1 vs. line at home this season, Cowboys on 5-1-1 spread run last seven TY. Dallas has won and covered last three meetings. Cowboys “under” 6-1 away TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Cowboys and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Panthers have dropped last seven SU this season (1-6 vs. line in those). Saints however only 1-3 vs. lien last four TY after after nine straight covers previous. Carolina “under” last four TY. Saints 6-1 vs. spread last seven reg season vs. Panthers (though L on Dec. 17).
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.


    N.Y. JETS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Jets 7-3-1 vs. spread last 11 in series, though Pats covered first 2018 meeting at MetLife on Nov. 25. Last five “under” in series, Belichick “under” 14-6 in reg season since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.


    DETROIT at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Lions have lost last five TY though 2-3 vs. line in those. Detroit also “under” last six this season. Lions have won and covered last three in series.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


    JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Jags won last week at Miami but still just 2-7-2 vs. line last 11 this season. Texans 5-2-2 last nine on board this season. Jags “under” 3-1 last 4 TY.
    Tech Edge: Texans and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Falcs have won SU last four meetings (3-1 vs. line in those games). Atlanta on first two-game win/cover streak of season entering finale. Bucs 3-1-2 vs. spread last six games TY. “Overs” 4-1 last five in series.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Falcons, based on “totals” and series trends.


    MIAMI at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Dolphins 1-5 SU and vs. line last six at Orchard park, only win was with Matt Moore at QB in 2016. Moore also won at Buffalo in 2011, so he’s only Miami QB to win or cover last seven at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Dolphins 1-5 vs. line last six on road this season.
    Tech Edge: Bills, based on series and team trends.


    OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Chiefs 0-5-1 vs. line last six and 1-6-1 vs. spread last right TY. But Raiders just 1-6 vs. line last seven away TY. KC “over” 4-0-1 last five TY. Chiefs have covered 4 of last 5 vs. Raiders at Arrowhead after Oakland had fared well on road in series.
    Tech Edge: Chiefs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Surprisingly, Birds just 5-11-2 vs. spread in reg season play since late 2017. Philly has still won and covered last three vs. Skins, though Jay Gruden has covered last two in 2018. last five in 2018. Falcs have covered 5 of last 6 in series.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Redskins, based on team trends.


    CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Browns 5-1 SU and vs. line last six this season, though Ravens on 4-0-1 spread uptick themselves. Ravens “under” 3-0-1 last four TY, and “unders” last four in series.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


    CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Bengals on surprise 3-game cover streak at moment, though Steelers have covered 5 of last 7 in series. Steel 0-3-1 vs. line last four as chalk TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on recent trends.


    CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Bears have won and covered 7 of last 8 TY, though just 3-3 vs. spread last six away. Vikes have won and covered last two since DeFilippo dismissal, and have won last six as series host, covering last3 and 5 of those 6. Vikes “under” 6-2 last eight TY.
    Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.


    L.A. CHARGERS at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Bolts 6-1 vs. spread as visitor this season (not counting London neutral game). Denver streaky vs. line this season, but “under” trend since late LY has endured (14-4 “under” last 18 into Oakland on Monday).
    Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Chargers, based on “totals” and team trends.


    ARIZONA at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Cards faltering down stretch, just 1-5 SU and vs. line last six TY. Meanwhile hawks on 8-2-1 spread surge into finale, and “over” 6-1 last seven. Cards have surprisingly won and covered last three and 4 of last 5 at Seattle since 58-0 loss in 2012.
    Tech Edge: Seahawks and slight to “over,” based on recent team and “totals” trends.


    SAN FRANCISCO at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Niners 6-1 SU and vs. line in last four games of season for Kyle Shanahan since a year ago. Rams only 3-7-2 last 12 on board this season. Niners actually 5-1 vs. spread last six in series.
    Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team and series trends.


    INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
    Andrew Luck is 10-0 SU in games he has started against Titans in career, including 38-10 win at Lucas Oil on Nov. 18. Colts had been “under” five straight prior to Giants game. Titans only 2-4 vs. line last six TY and “under” 10-6 in reg season since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “under,” based on series and recent “totals” trends.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil



    COLTS-TITANS FLEXED TO SNF

    One of the simpler scenarios for this weekend is when the Colts visit the Titans as it’s winner-takes-all to decide the final playoff spot in the AFC. Because of this, the NFL has flexed the Colts-Titans to Sunday Night Football as it’s undoubtedly the biggest game of the week.

    No odds have been set yet but it’ll likely be a tight line with the home team (Tennessee) favored by a point or two. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota was knocked out of Sunday’s game with a stinger — much like he was when the Colts smoked the Titans 38-10 in Week 11. Mariota has been bothered by the same injury all season but hasn’t actually missed a start since Week 3 and we’re expecting him on the field Sunday. There will, however, be the risk that he gets knocked out of the game yet again.

    The Colts have won eight of nine and we’re a fan of backing the better quarterback in a big game — and that’s Andrew Luck. We’ll be backing the Colts when the line opens later in the week.


    CJ ALL DAY

    C.J. Anderson drew the start in place of the injured Todd Gurley and had himself a big day against Arizona, exploding for 167 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Anderson found huge holes all afternoon, reminding everyone that he’s still very much an NFL-caliber back, which really shouldn’t come as much of a surprise after he posted a 1,000-yard season last year in Denver.

    Anderson’s Week 17 outlook all comes down to Gurley’s knee. Reports say that Gurley planned to play but didn’t feel right during warm-ups, leading the Rams to sit him. The Rams aren’t necessarily in must-win mode, but if they lose on Sunday against San Francisco and the Bears beat the Vikings, they will drop to the third seed in the NFC and not get a first-round bye.

    The 49ers held the Bears to just 90 rushing yards on 28 carries in Week 16 but it’s still a great spot at home as a 9-point favorite in a game that the Rams definitely want to win. Follow Covers’ Twitter feed for up-to-the-minute injury news and look to play the Over on Anderson’s rushing yards total if Gurley gets ruled out.


    BIG BEN’S BIG DAY

    The Steeler-Saints match was the game of the day yesterday and Ben Roethlisberger went off, as he tends to do in big games, completing 33-of-50 passes for 380 yards and three touchdowns. It wasn’t quite enough, however, as the Saints prevailed 31-28 when JuJu Smith-Schuster fumbled late with the Steelers already in field-goal position.

    Pittsburgh now needs to win at home against Cincinnati on Sunday but also needs Cleveland to go on the road and beat Baltimore. The two games are being played at the same time (Sunday afternoon late slate), meaning the Steelers will be going full-tilt to crush the hapless Bengals. The line for the Steelers-Bengals has been all over the place and as of Monday morning, some books were offering Steelers -14, while others had them as high as -16.5.

    While we fully expect the Steelers to jump out to a big league, there’s one caveat that’s keeping us from jumping on Pittsburgh at -14. Even though the Browns-Ravens game is being played at the same time, it will still have an effect on the Steelers as the out-of-town scores will be posted in the stadium. If the Ravens get up big, the Steelers could face a late-game letdown and then perhaps a back-door cover. For this reason, we’re going to jump on Pittsburgh to cover the first-half spread, which should be set at 8-10 when it opens later in the week.


    CARSON CRUSHES CHIEFS

    Chris Carson continued his hot run on Sunday night by posting a rushing stat line of 27-116-2 against the pathetic Chiefs’ run defense. Seattle locked up a playoff spot with the 38-31 win over K.C. but can clinch the fifth seed in the NFC with a home win over Arizona in Week 17. There are many playoff scenarios at play but the most likely outcomes would have the Seahawks visiting Dallas in Round 1 with a win and visiting Chicago with a loss. The Seahawks beat Dallas earlier in the year and lost to Chicago. There’s also the weather factor as no one wants to play in Chicago in January.

    There seems to be lots of motivation for Seattle to play hard in its regular-season finale and that likely means a lot more carries for Carson. He faced a predictably easy matchup in Week 16 (and got us a winning bet with the Over on his rushing yards total) but he faces an equally soft matchup in Week 17 against a Cardinals defense that just got torched by C.J. Anderson (see above). Arizona ranked 24th in rushing DVOA heading into Week 16 and that number is only going to fall when the stats are updated following the Monday nighter. The Cardinals also rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game at 153.1.

    Carson is averaging 23.6 carries for 108.3 yards over his last three and shouldn’t have any problem approaching those totals in Week 17. Take the Over for his rushing yards total when it gets posted later in the week.


    SAINTS LOCK UP TOP SEED

    The Saints locked up the top seed with yesterday’s win over Pittsburgh, meaning the road to Atlanta goes through New Orleans for the NFC’s playoff teams. This also means that the Saints have nothing to play for in Week 17 when they host Carolina. The Panthers, coincidentally, also have nothing to play for and have already shut down quarterback Cam Newton for the season.

    Carolina’s offense was predictably bad in Week 16 and got us a winning bet with the Under for its team total. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke managed to throw for 274 yards on 33-of-53 passing but three interceptions did him in. Heinicke was also knocked from the game with an elbow injury but wound up returning after missing a few snaps. He was knocked around all day behind a terrible offensive line and it’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough to suit up in Week 17. If he can’t, Carolina will go with rookie Kyle Allen, who went 4-for-4 for 38 yards while filling in for Heinicke against Atlanta.

    New Orleans hasn’t announced how it will use its starters with nothing to play for against Carolina but you can be sure the Saints won’t have their big guns on the field going at 100 percent all afternoon. We’d also expect them to use a fairly vanilla playbook in not wanting to give away any of their tricks before the playoffs. The lines haven’t been released yet but we’ll be looking to take the Under on the game total once posted.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-26-2018 at 01:17 AM.

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    Opening Line Report - Week 17
    Joe Williams

    We're down to the final week of the National Football League regular season, and there is still quite a bit left to be determined. Normally, we have several teams already locked into playoff seedings with nothing left to play for, but that's just not the case this season. Sure, the top seed in the NFC has been determined, but there are plenty of division titles up for grabs in Week 17, as well as one winner-take-all Sunday Night battle to determine the AFC South winner. It's going to be a crazy week in the final games before the road to Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta.

    Happy Holidays, everyone!

    Sunday, Dec. 30

    Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-7, OFF)


    The Cowboys won the NFC East Division title and are locked into the No. 4 seed, so they have nothing to play for. They're expected to rest several of their key players, which is why the total is off the board.

    Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (OFF)

    The Raiders are not going quietly into the night, knocking off the Steelers and Broncos in recent weeks. Of course, that was at home. The Chiefs have dropped two in a row, as they don't seem to want to lock down the AFC West Division or a first-round bye.

    Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (OFF)

    The Saints locked up the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, so it's expected they'll rest several of their key players. The game is off the board due to some uncertainty there, as well as the Panthers quarterback situation. QB Taylor Heinicke started last week, as QB Cam Newton is resting his shoulder with nothing to play for. However, Heinicke left last week's game due to injury, and while he was able to return, it's uncertain if he'll be the guy under center or not.

    New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13, 45.5)

    The Patriots still have a ton left to play for, as they can lock down a first-round bye if things go a certain way. There hasn't been a ton of early movement on this line, although the spread varies from -13 to -13 1/2 at most shops. If you like the Jets catching the points, the Golden Nugget is the place to be. They opened this line at -13 1/2. The total tumbled from 47 1/2 to 46 in a matter of hours on Christmas Eve, as there is some question as to whether QB Tom Brady (knee) is at 100 percent.

    Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 42) at Washington Redskins

    The legend of St. Nick continues to grow like the heart of the Grinch. QB Nick Foles pushed aside the first-place Rams in L.A. two weeks ago as a heavy favorite, and he rallied the troops past the first-place Houston Texans last week at home. Does this guy ever lose? The Eagles are favorites on the road against the *M*A*S*H unit known as the Redskins, who are limping to the finish line literally, and figuratively. The Golden Nugget opened the Eagles at -7, while most other shops have them at -6 1/2. Mirage-MGM and Stations also have the 'Skins catching a touchdown, if you're feeling them for some reason.

    Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 45)

    The Packers showed plenty of heart in an overtime road victory against the Jets last week, their first win away from Lambeau Field all season. Golden Nugget has already moved the Pack up from -7 to -7 1/2, as well as Mirage-MGM. At Southpoint the Pack are laying -8. The total has flown up from 44 to 45 1/2 at Caesars/Harrah's.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-7, 40.5)

    Southpoint opened the Texans at -8, and it was quickly bet down to -7. Apparently bettors are feeling the Jags have no quit after eliminating the Dolphins on the road last week, 17-7, and not feeling the Texans who frittered away a late lead in Philadelphia. There has been little movement on the total, staying steady at 40 1/2 at most shops. However, Caesars saw the line slip from 40 1/2 to 40 during the course of Christmas Eve.

    Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 41)

    The Ravens can lock up the AFC North Division with a victory at home behind rookie QB Lamar Jackson. Hopefully for their sake Browns fellow rookie QB Baker Mayfield doesn't wake up feeling dangerous. The Browns have come alive, posting a 7-7-1 SU record this season, actually resembling an NFL caliber organization while securing a spot out of the basement for the first time in a while.

    Bettors are apparently feeling Mayfield and the road team, as the line bumped down from -6 to -5 1/2 at Mirage-MGM. The same has occurred at Westgate SuperBook, as the line has toggled between -6 and -5 1/2 a couple of times since the open on Sunday.

    Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 51)

    These are two teams going nowhere and trying to avoid the basement in the NFC South Division. Still, there is plenty of interest in the game at the betting window.

    At Caesars, the line opened with Atlanta as a pick 'em, moving to Tampa -1 1/2, but tumbling back to just -1 in favor of the home team. The Stratosphere opened the Falcs at -1 1/2, quickly moving to a pick 'em before bettors bet the Bucs up to a -1 favorite, too. Westgate has the visitors at -2 1/2 to open, but now the Bucs are -1, likely due to several injuries in the backfield for Atlanta.

    Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 38.5)

    The Bills host the Dolphins, who joined the Loser's Lounge last week with a terrible performance at home against Jacksonville to bow out of the playoff race. Bettors are feeling the Fins, betting down the line from -3 1/2 to -3 at the Strat as well as the Westgate, among others. If you shop around the total varies a bit, but all are rather low.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 45.5)

    It's balls to the wall for the Steelers. They need to win AND they need help from an unlikely source, the Cleveland Browns. If Pittsburgh wins, they're in as long as the Browns can spring an upset in Charm City. Look for the Steelers to pull out all of the stops at home in Heinz Field against a team they handle.

    There hasn't been a ton of variation on this line, staying at a flat -14 at most shops. However, Golden Nugget has the game listed at -14 1/2 if you want to fade the black and gold. The Strat opened the Steelers at -15, but that's been bet down to -14 within 20 hours. Westgate also had the home team at -15 1/2, but the money came in on the Bengals to bet it down to -14.

    Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 41)

    The Bears have locked up the NFC North Division title and are sitting pretty. The Vikings, well they still have work to do and will be playing with desperation. They're trying to hold off the Eagles for the final spot in the NFC playoffs.

    Bettors are Caesars like the road team, as the line went from -6 to -5 1/2 in rather quick fashion. The Strat also had the line at -6 1/2, quickly moving down to -5 within less than 24 hours.

    Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (OFF)

    The Chargers are still very much alive for the AFC West Division title after frittering away a golden opportunity at home last week. However, they have to pull for an unlikely source, the Raiders, to spring an upset in K.C. Bolts fans do not usually cheer for silver and black.

    Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (OFF)

    The Seahawks clinched a playoff spot last week, and they aren't going to move up or down in their seeding. As such, they're expected to rest some bodies and Vegas is holding off to see what the home team decides to do.

    San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-10, 50)

    The 49ers have been a fly in the ointment for the likes of the Broncos, Seahawks, etc. and they gave the Bears a tough battle, too. Los Angeles is still in the mix for a first-round bye, but they need to keep their foot on the gas. RB Todd Gurley is not 100 percent and it's uncertain if he'll be ready to go Sunday or rested.

    Bettors are feeling the Rams, as the line has bumped up at Caesars from -9 1/2 to -10, while moving from -9 to -9 1/2 at Southpoint. There has been very little money coming in on the Niners. The total has gained surprising attention, moving from 50 1/2 at Westgate, down to 49 1/2, back up to 50.

    Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (OFF)

    This is a winner-take-all battle for the AFC South Division championship, but it's uncertain who will be leading the Titans. QB Marcus Mariota aggravated his elbow injury last week and he was unable to return. QB Blaine Gabbert kept the team afloat, but the starting quarterback makes a huge difference in this one.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-26-2018 at 01:18 AM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil



    CONNER ON TRACK

    Steelers running back James Conner is practicing in full this week, putting him on track to return Sunday against Cincinnati. Conner has missed the last three games but should return to a full workload in a must-win game where Pittsburgh has to win and hope Cleveland beats Baltimore.

    It’s a dream matchup for Conner as he faces a Bengals defense ranked 28th in rushing DVOA. Cincy has been absolutely destroyed via the ground game this season allowing 168.6 yards from scrimmage per game and 20 total touchdowns to the opposing backfield, most recently allowing 112 yards on 19 carries to Nick Chubb last week. We are a little wary of backing Conner’s rushing total in case Pittsburgh gets up big and decides to rest him, so we suggest backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


    TANNEHILL’S MIAMI FINALE?

    Reports out of Miami on Wednesday are that the Dolphins are expected to move on from quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the offseason. Doing so would save the organization $19 million over the next two years as no money in his contract is guaranteed. This means that Tannehill’s start on Sunday is likely his last in Miami as the Dolphins visit the Bills as a 3.5-point underdog.

    Tannehill will have every reason to be motivated on Sunday as he auditions for a new contract elsewhere, but we will be looking to make it three straight wins by backing the Under on his passing yards total. The Bills are a very tough matchup, ranked second in passing DVOA and allow a league-low 182.7 passing yards per game. Tannehill has faced difficult matchups over his last two weeks and has faltered to passing yards totals of 108 and 146. We expect a similar number this week and suggest the Under on Tannehill’s passing yards total.


    FOURNETTE LIMITED

    Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette was limited at practice on Wednesday with ankle and foot issues. It was originally reported that he missed practice, but he did just enough to draw the limited tag. Regardless, it’s not a great sign for his availability on Sunday as Jacksonville visits Houston.

    We backed a winner with the Under for Fournette’s rushing total last week and we’ll be looking to do the same this week, assuming he suits up. Houston boasts the top rushing defense in the league in DVOA and allows just 86.2 rushing yard per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL. Fournette received just 18 of 32 team carries last week and, with his injuries and the Jags’ season being long over, there’s just no reason to give him more than that this week. Take the Under on Fournette’s rushing yards total.


    STAFFORD’S BACK ISSUE

    Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is practicing fully this week, which is a bit of a surprise after a back issue forced him to the sideline during the fourth quarter of Week 16. The injury has been bothering him for the last few games and it has shown on the field with passing yards totals of 116, 208, and 101 in his last three. This week, Stafford heads to Green Bay as an 8-point underdog to take on a Packers squad that showed in last week’s come-from-behind overtime win that it is still quite motivated. Weather will also be a concern as back injuries do not generally fare well in the cold and the current forecast is for temperatures in the low 30s. While we expect Stafford to be out there starting the game, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the early hook. Grab the Under for his passing yards total.


    EKELER RETURNS

    Chargers coach Anthony Lynn told the media on Wednesday that he expects running back Austin Ekeler to return to the field on Sunday when L.A. visits Denver. Ekeler has missed the last two games with a neck injury but should return to his third-down role for the regular-season finale.

    The Chargers have already clinched but, as we mentioned yesterday, Lynn has said his starters will play and that the team is approaching Sunday like any other game. There’s also the fact the Melvin Gordon did not look 100 percent last week as he ran for 41 yards on 12 carries after missing the previous three games with an injury. Keeping Gordon healthy is a top priority for L.A.’s playoff chances and that could mean a few extra touches for Ekeler on Sunday. Ekeler excels as a passing-down back and Denver struggles covering passes to running backs with a rank of 20th in passing DVOA to the backfield. Take the Over on Ekeler’s receptions total.


    LINDSAY OUT LONG TERM

    Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay could potentially miss all of the offseason after suffering significant wrist damage in Monday night’s loss to Oakland, according to reports. This, of course, means Lindsay will miss the Pro Bowl after his impressive rookie season that saw him run for 1,037 yards on 5.4 yards per carry (tied for second-most in the NFL) and nine touchdowns. Denver hosts the Chargers on Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog and will use Royce Freeman as an early-down back and Devontae Booker on passing downs.

    Freeman and Lindsay were rotating earlier in the season but Lindsay took full control after Freeman was injured in Week 7. Freeman returned in Week 11 but averaged just seven carries for 25.3 yards per game since. Freeman has been running at 3.6 yards per carry since returning from his injury and on Sunday gets to run against a Chargers defense that ranks ninth in rushing DVOA and has something to play for. L.A. can still end up with a first-round bye. All they have to do is beat Denver and hope that Oakland beats Kansas City. It’s not a likely situation, but it is possible and L.A. has to do its part by winning first — and shutting down Freeman in the process. Grab the Under on Freeman’s rushing yards total when the prop market opens.


    CHARGERS CHARGE ON

    Chargers coach Anthony Lynn told the media on Monday that his starters will all be playing on Sunday as they visit the Broncos as a 6.5-point favorite. "We’re going into this game no different than any other game," Lynn said. "We’re not worrying about resting people.” This makes sense seeing as the Chargers can still possibly gain a bye through the first round of the playoffs and especially since they’re coming off a home loss against Baltimore.

    Week 17 is a bit strange when it comes to betting and motivation can be a huge factor. The Chargers are clearly motivated in this one and the Broncos are far from it. The Broncos have nothing to play for and are coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss at Oakland.
    Add in that multiple reports state that coach Vance Joseph will be let go at season’s end and we could be looking at a scenario where the Broncos just don’t show up on Sunday. We’re suggesting the Chargers at -6.5 before this line grows.


    NELSON’S REVIVAL

    Speaking off those Raiders, something has to be said about receiver Jordy Nelson’s revival as the veteran has put together receiving lines of 10-97, 6-48, 6-88, and 7-75 over the last month. Nelson has jumped to the top of Derek Carr’s favorite list, surging ahead of tight end Jared Cook.

    The Raiders have nothing to play this week for but haven’t for a long time and we’ve still seen them put forth their best effort with wins in two of their last three. This week, they head to Kansas City as a 13.5-point underdog in what is really a great situation for Nelson. For one, the game script lines up perfectly as the Raiders should be playing from behind and throwing the ball all afternoon. Second, he faces a Chiefs defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against slot receivers, most recently allowing 7-126-1 to Doug Baldwin last week. We expect Nelson to haul in at least five passes on Sunday and we're grabbing the Over on his receptions total.


    THOMAS HITS IR

    The Houston Texans placed Demaryius Thomas on injured reserve after he suffered an Achilles injury on Sunday. It’s disappointing for all involved after the veteran never really managed to get involved in Houston’s offense after the Texans traded a fourth-round pick for him at the end of October. Rookie receiver DeAndre Carter had a big day after Thomas was hurt in Week 16, posting six receptions for 61 yards. Keke Coutee could also be a factor in Week 17, but his hamstring is still an issue and he hasn’t played a full game since Week 11. DeAndre Hopkins will, of course, stay heavily involved and might even see a few extra targets after posting receiving lines of 9-104 and 10-170-2 in his last two games.

    Houston has made the playoffs but Sunday definitely matters as it hosts Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite. With a win and some help, the Texans could jump as high as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With a loss, they would likely fall to the No. 6 seed. The Jaguars have a tough defense but they are a mess offensively and still haven’t named a starting quarterback for Week 17 after Blake Bortles closed out Week 16’s win in relief of Cody Kessler. They also have nothing to play for in advance of an offseason where there could be some major changes to the roster and perhaps coaching staff. We’re laying the points here and taking the Texans -7.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-28-2018 at 03:13 AM.

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    Underdogs to Watch - Week 17
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    Will Dogs Face Uphill Battle in Week 17?

    If you’re an NFL betting enthusiast that is looking for underdogs that are offering a great chance to cash in on their Week 17 NFL odds, then you’re going to enjoy the expert betting analysis and predictions that you’re about to get on three Week 17 dogs that look like they’re all going to challenge for the ATS cover at the very least this coming weekend.

    While the vast majority of favorites on this week’s schedule have plenty of motivation to win and improve their chances of reaching the postseason, let’s get to my trio of expert Week 17 NFL picks featuring three underdogs that look like they’ll all challenge for the ATS cover in their respective matchups.

    NY Jets (4-11) at New England Patriots (10-5)
    When: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 1:00 PM ET
    Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
    NFL Odds: New England -13.5
    Total: 45.5


    The New York Jets may have lost two straight games heading into their regular season finale, but they’ve played some very competitive football in each of their last three games. The Jets beat the Bills 27-23 in Week 14 before narrowly falling to Houston 29-22 the following week. While New York fell apart late to lose to Green Bay 44-38 in overtime last weekend, again, they've been very competitive recently if nothing else.

    While the Jets are playing well right now, the same definitely can’t be said about Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Yes, the Pats picked up a 24-12 win over Buffalo last weekend to snap a surprising two-game losing streak, but they didn’t look very good as
    Tom Brady was limited to just 126 passing yards with one TD and two picks. Prior to their most recent effort, New England lost to awful Miami 34-33 in Week 14 before falling against Pittsburgh 17-10 the following week.

    There’s a reason why 61 percent of public bettors are backing the Jets to cover the chalk in this one and it’s because the Patriots have looked mediocre at best and New York is getting almost two touchdowns.

    The Jets have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 16-7-3 ATS in their last 26 games in December. New England Patriots are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against their AFC counterparts and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 dates against the Jets.

    I’m not expecting Tom Brady to play the entirety of this one, making the Jets a great underdog pick this weekend.

    Pick: NY Jets +13.5


    Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at Washington Redskins (7-8)
    When: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 4:25 PM ET
    Where: FedExField, Landover, Maryland
    NFL Odds: Philadelphia -6.5
    Total: 42


    Sure, the Philadelphia Eagles have looked fantastic in winning two straight with veteran backup Nick Foles back as the starter for an injured Carson Wentz, but Washington certainly isn’t going to roll over in this divisional matchup and regular season finale and the Redskins have a good enough defense to make this one a close affair if you ask me.

    While Philly has put at least 30 on the board the last two weeks and comes into this contest off a thrilling 32-30 win over Houston last weekend, but Washington ranks a respectable 14th in points allowed (22.3 ppg) and they’ve got a running back that chew up the clock in the ageless Adrian Peterson and a veteran quarterback that is pretty careful with the ball in Josh Johnson.

    I know Washington has struggled mightily since losing starting quarterback Alex Smith a few weeks back and that they come into this contest off a humbling 25-16 loss against Tennessee last weekend and they’ve beaten Philadelphia three times in their last four home dates against the Birds.

    The Skins are also 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss while Philadelphia has gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against their NFC East division rivals and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. A lot of folks are backing the Birds to win and cover, but I’m thinking a field goal finish is just as likely.

    Pick: Washington +6.5


    Chicago Bears (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
    When: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 4:25 PM ET
    Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
    NFL Odds: Minnesota -5
    Total: 41


    Chicago has won three straight games and eight of their last nine games overall. The Bears come into this contest off a surprisingly difficult 14-9 win over San Francisco last weekend and they beat the Vikings 25-20 in Week 11 to cash in as a 2.5-point home favorite that day. Minnesota has looked a lot better the last two weeks after making a change at the offensive coordinator position. First, the Vikings absolutely crushed Miami 41-41 in Week 15 and then they man-handled Detroit en route to a 27-9 win last weekend.

    However, for this season-ending matchup, you should know that Chicago is now the better statistical team on both sides of the ball and it would appear that young signal-caller Mitch Trubisky is now better than Minnesota veteran Kirk Cousins. The Bears ranks ninth in scoring (26.5 ppg) and third in points allowed (18.2 ppg) and I believe their excellence on both sides of the ball will be more than enough to help them cover the chalk against a desperate Minnesota team that needs a win here to punch their ticket to the postseason.

    The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games and have won four of their last six road games outright. Chicago is also an unblemished 6-0 ATS in their last six games against their NFC North division rivals and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against the Vikings. I like Minnesota for the outright win, but Chicago has more than enough talent and desire on both sides of the ball to cover the chalk.

    Pick: Chicago Bears +5
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-30-2018 at 03:50 AM.

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    SNF - Colts at Titans
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    Indianapolis vs. Tennessee (NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    The SNF flex schedule was able to give us two different teams for the regular season finale and the stakes couldn't be any higher. This game between the Colts and Titans is truly a “win and you're in scenario” as the winner will either be a Wildcard team in the AFC, or a AFC South division champion depending on what Houston does and which team does ultimately win this contest.

    That makes for an intriguing game all the way around, and with Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota's status still in question as he deals with a stinger, there is always more intrigue you can find with this game. So after cashing with a home underdog in last week's SNF showcase, is it worth it to back another home 'dog this week?

    Odds: Indianapolis (-3.5); Total set at 43

    Mariota's status forced some action on Indy earlier in the week, but from all reports now, it appears as though he should be alright to suit up. Whether or not that changes your opinion on this game drastically is up to you, but if backup Blaine Gabbert does see significant action in this game, I don't envision much changing for the Titans. After all, Gabbert did go 11-for-16 for 118 yards in clean-up duty in the first meeting with the Colts, and he's been around this division for half his career, so facing Indy will be nothing new to him.

    Tennessee is a run-first, play strong defense team as it is, so even with the stakes as high as they are, whether it's Mariota or Gabbert, the Titans coaching staff aren't going to ask them to get out of their comfort zone. The bulk of the work if Tennessee is going to win this game will have to be done by a defense that got torched by Andrew Luck (23-for-29 for 297 yards and 3 TD's) in the first meeting. Two INT's by Tennessee QB's that day didn't exactly help the Titans cause, as the game was over by the early 3rd quarter.

    However, those 38 points Tennessee allowed that day was the most this defense has given up all year long, and with an average of 8.3 allowed/game over their last three outings overall, I do expect this Titans defense to be up to the task. But what really cinches my feeling on this is the fact that there is that hook on the key number of -3 here and it's hard not to take those points with the home side in this spot.

    Indy might be 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall, but they are just 5-3-1 ATS in that span, including a 2-3 ATS run more recently. The lone outright loss during that time came against a physical defense that's similar to what the Titans will bring to the table (Jacksonville), and this is still only the third time all year that the Colts have been road chalk. Indy's 1-1 SU and ATS in those previous two outings, but again, playing Jacksonville is more comparable – where Indy lost SU and ATS – than the road win against Oakland in this scenario, and at +3.5, the Titans still get that hook working in their favor.

    So with that extra day of rest before this showdown matchup, the home crowd on their side, and a potential late SU loss by a FG still not affecting the ATS win/loss result for Tennessee, I'll be backing the home dog again this week on SNF.

    Tennessee is on a 11-4 ATS run against winning teams, 7-2 ATS in their last nine division games, and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 at home. With the home side on a 5-2 ATS run in this specific rivalry, I'll gladly take the points with Tennessee in this spot.

    Best Bet: Tennessee +3.5
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-30-2018 at 03:51 AM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil



    GURLEY WON’T GO

    The L.A. Rams have officially ruled Todd Gurley out for Sunday’s regular-season finale against the 49ers, which really comes as no surprise as he’ll rest his knee for the playoffs. This means C.J. Anderson gets another run as the bell cow a week after posting 167 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries against Arizona.

    We already mentioned earlier in the week that the Over for Anderson’s rushing yards total makes for a smart play with Gurley out of the lineup. We still like that prop and we’re going to double-down on Anderson by backing him to get into the end zone. San Francisco has a significantly better rush defense than Arizona, but Anderson is in an amazing spot at home as a 10-point favorite in a game that the Rams are motivated to win so that they can secure a first-round bye. Take Anderson to score a touchdown at any time.


    RECORD CHASING FOR KITTLE

    The San Francisco 49ers are banged up on offense ahead of Sunday’s game against the Rams with receivers Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis, running back Matt Breida, and tight end Garrett Celek all out. Who does this leave? Receivers Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, and Richie James, and tight end George Kittle, who just happens to be 99 yards shy of the single-season receiving record for tight ends. Interestingly enough, Travis Kelce is just 53 yards shy of the mark, meaning both players could potentially break the record that is currently held by Rob Gronkowski.

    With nothing to play for on Sunday, expect coach Kyle Shanahan and quarterback Nick Mullens to do all they can to feed Kittle all afternoon. In fact, Shanahan might be the most motivated to get Kittle the record after failing to get Kittle the single-game receiving record for tight ends when he needed just five yards in the entire second half in Week 14. Shanahan felt terrible that his second-year tight end was blanked in the second half of that game, apologizing multiple times to Kittle afterward. This is his chance to make for it by calling plays that force feed Kittle all afternoon. We’re taking the Over 5.5 on Kittle’s receptions total and the Over 78.5 on his receiving yards total.


    BALDWIN CLEARED

    Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday, which came as a bit of a surprise after he was limited during Thursday’s practice. Regardless, this clears him for Week 17 and he should be full speed for Sunday’s tilt against Arizona.

    Baldwin is on fire of late with receiving lines of 7-126-1 and 4-77-2 over his last two games. This week, he faces an Arizona defense that he has scored two touchdowns against in his last three games, dating back to last season. We’re a little wary of backing the Over for his receiving totals as he could be rested in the later parts of the game if the Seahawks get up big, which is quite possible as a 13-point favorite. Instead, we’re going to back him to get into the end zone for the third week in a row by backing to score a touchdown at any time.


    BRIDGEWATER DRAWS THE START

    New Orleans confirmed on Friday that it will start Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback on Sunday as the Saints host the Panthers. New Orleans has nothing to play for with the top seed in the NFC already locked up and Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram are all expected to mostly be spectators on Sunday. We already suggested backing the Under 43.5 for this game earlier in the week and congratulations if you already placed a bet on that total as the markets for the Saints-Panthers game have since been pulled offline. We also suggested backing the Under on Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen’s passing yards total and we’ll suggest the same for Bridgewater. The Saints will want to keep things as vanilla as possible with the playoffs on the horizon and will likely treat this game as a preseason affair. Take the Under on Bridgewater’s passing yards total.


    ALLEN TO RUN OVER MIAMI?

    As mentioned multiple times throughout this week’s articles, finding value in Week 17 betting markets is often based on finding motivation (or lack thereof). There could be a motivation mismatch in Buffalo on Sunday as the Dolphins visit the Bills.

    On one sideline, you have rookie Josh Allen who is playing hard to prove that he belongs in the conversation with Baker Mayfield as the best rookie quarterbacks from this season. On the other sideline, you have a Miami team that faces an offseason where the entire organization could be flipped, including executives, coaches, and the starting quarterback. It’s also going to be cold, with temperatures set in the mid-20s, which should drop Miami’s motivation levels even further.

    Allen torched the Dolphins for 135 rushing yards on just nine carries back in Week 13 and, even though he’s been running less of late with rushing yards totals of 30 and 16 over his last two weeks, we think he’ll do enough running on Sunday to get above and beyond his rushing yards total of 40.5. Take the Over.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-30-2018 at 03:52 AM.

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    NFL Underdogs: Week 17 pointspread picks and predictions
    Jason Logan

    Often times, it isn’t about what you know, but who you know.

    Whether you’re trying to score tickets to the sold-out game, vying for a new job, or trying to squeeze your way into the playoffs: it helps to have friends in high places.

    That was Doug Pederson’s play when he allegedly rang up old work buddy and fellow branch of the Andy Reid coaching tree Matt Nagy, asking the Chicago Bears head coach to beat the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday – therefor opening the door for Pederson’s Philadelphia Eagles to sneak into the final wild card spot in the NFC (granted they beat Washington).

    Chicago’s game in Minnesota is essentially meaningless, unless San Francisco upsets the L.A. Rams as a 10-point underdog and hands over the No. 2 seed in the NFC to the Bears. Regardless of any would-be favors to Pederson, Nagy has stated that he intends on playing his starters in Week 17, which has slimmed Chicago from +6.5 to +4.5 for the season finale.

    “We have to play to win, and I kind of like that,” Nagy told ESPN. “I don’t mind that at all, and I think that our guys kind of like it. It just kind of keeps you going if you were fortunate enough to make it to the playoffs. It keeps you going in that rhythm.”

    There’s a tough choice to make between starting and sitting, but momentum can be worth its weight in gold when entering the playoffs, especially considering how well Chicago is playing right now. The Bears have won three in a row SU and ATS and with a young core and not much in the way of postseason experience, Nagy won’t want that intensity to dip before the franchise’s biggest game since the 2010 season.

    The Vikings are 3-3 since their Week 10 bye with their best win in that span coming over a 7-8 Miami squad.

    In fact, Minnesota’s eight wins on the season (two over the Lions) have come against a group of teams that combine for a 37-67 SU mark, with a Week 5 victory over the Eagles as the only win against an opponent with a winning record (and Philly was dog crap back in Week 5). Oh, and they tied Green Bay back in Week 2.

    On the flip side, the Vikes’ six losses have come via teams with a collective win/loss count of 60-30 SU – and that total includes the 5-10 Buffalo Bills. This team is far from elite, and even at home in a must-win mode against a team that may or may not go all out, I’m comfy taking the points with the Bears.

    Pick: Chicago +4.5


    Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5, 52.5)

    Kansas City needs a win over Oakland to lock up the top seed in the AFC and home-field throughout the conference playoffs. And they’ll get that win in Week 17. But, with the way that these teams are trending, the points are ever-so tempting as they tick up heading into Sunday.

    Ripping the logos off the helmets, we see one with a 3-3 SU record since Week 10, with two of those wins coming against teams boasting records of 4-11 and 3-12 respectively. The most important part, however, was that this team is 0-5-1 ATS in that span and allowing an average of 32 points against in those six contests. That's pointspread poison.

    The other team has posted an identical 3-3 SU record in its last half-dozen outing but has turned out a 4-2 ATS count in that stretch. That includes a 40-33 loss to its Week 17 opponent, covering as a 14-point home underdog – thanks to a 17-point fourth-quarter effort to cover the spread.

    The Chiefs have given up 36 total points in the final frame over the past three games, while Oakland has managed to put up 27 combined points over its last three fourth-quarter showing. I’m expecting another backdoor cover from the Raiders Sunday, as Kansas City gets up and starts to pull starters off the field in the second half.

    Pick:
    Oakland +14.5


    Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3.5, 43.5)

    Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is 10-0 SU versus the Titans during his NFL career, and an even more impressive 9-1 ATS in those games. And to that I say I’m taking the Titans +3.5 (picture me shrugging).

    Marcus Mariota’s nerve issues have bumped this spread from +1.5 to +3.5 but it appears he’s going to play in this Sunday night finale. Tennessee enters this game on a three-game winning streak over some softer competition, but I’m more looking at the Colts coming into Tennessee in a tough spot (beyond a must-win game on the road).

    Week 17 marks just the third time Indianapolis has played away from home since before Halloween and only the second time the Colts have played outdoors in that span. That lone open-air game was a 6-0 blanking to the Jaguars in Week 13.

    Sunday night’s forecast is calling for rain and wind in Nashville, which should help slow down a speedy Indianapolis offense. The Colts average 66.5 plays per game – fourth most in the NFL – and take on a Titans team that has pounded the turf in recent weeks and sits among the leaders in time of possession over the past three games.

    One other note: Nissan Stadium will get some extra wear and tear this week, with the Music City Bowl being played Friday in Nashville. That could leave the grass field a little worse for wear come Sunday night.

    I like that home-field edge with the half-point hook on the host in a huge game.

    Pick: Tennessee +3.5

    Last week: 2-1 ATS
    Season: 30-17-1 ATS
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-30-2018 at 03:52 AM.

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