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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thur., Dec. 13 - Mon., Dec. 17)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thur., Dec. 13 - Mon., Dec. 17)



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, December 13 - Monday. December 17

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Opening Line Report - Week 15
    Joe Williams

    The books made a killing in Week 14, as plenty of underdogs were coming through to save the shops. Generally the public sinks money on the favorites, and 'dogs were hitting all over the boards. I am paraphrashing a user I saw post in passing: "Show me a winning parlay ticket. There weren't many."

    We have three regular-season weekends to go, and with college football in the rear-view mirror we get Saturday football, in addition to the usual assortment of Sunday activity. If you love betting NFL, this time of the year is right up your alley, as you have four separate days to watch and win.

    Thursday, Dec. 13

    Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 53)


    There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game yet, as most shops have held steady at -3 1/2. If you're feeling the Chiefs, Jerry's Nugget had the line drop from -3 1/2 to -3.

    This is a game to watch closely in terms of the injury report. The Chargers have RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler as question marks due to injury. If they're down to their third- and fourth-string tailbacks, the Chiefs could have a big advantage and the line might be on the move.

    Saturday, Dec. 15

    Houston Texans (-6, 41) at New York Jets


    The Texans finally saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end last week, but Vegas feels strongly that a new win streak will begin. The line at Atlantis moved from -6 1/2 to -6, as well as Southpoint and Westgate SuperBook. The Jets have a slew of injury issues of their own, including QB Sam Darnold (foot) who might be missing in action.

    Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-3, 45.5)

    The Browns actually resemble an NFL-caliber team after years of futility, led by QB Baker Mayfield. 'The Bake Show' has produced five victories this season, and they're just a half-game back of the Broncos as the teams jockey to stay in the playoff picture. A loss to either likely eliminates them from contention. The line has held steady around -3 at most shops, while Jerry's Nugget dropped the line from -3 1/2 to -3. Westgate SuperBook opened this game at -4, and bettors quickly bet it down to -3, too.

    Sunday, Dec. 16

    Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-8, 44)


    The Dolphins are coming off an upset win against the Patriots on the 'Miami Miracle'. The Vikings, meanwhile, were completely listless on offense in a 21-7 loss in Seattle on Monday night.

    If you're feeling the 'Fins to do it again, Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -8 1/2, with the Dolphins at +320 on the moneyline. Southpoint and Westgate SuperBook have the game at -8. Offshore some books had the Vikings as high as -9 1/2 to open, but that is likely to drop like a rock.

    Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 46)

    The Raiders were a big friend of the books, cashing straight-up as a double-digit underdog in the Black Hole against the Steelers a week ago. Now, they hit the road trying to improve to 3-1 SU/ATS against the AFC North Division.

    The Bengals have been skidding since QB Andy Dalton went down, but they put up a nice fight on the road to put a scare into the Chargers. There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game at all, with the only line move from -3 1/2 to -3 at Westgate.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 47)

    This game has held steady at -8 in favor of the home team at most shops, although if you look around Treasure Island still had it at -7 1/2. That's where it opened at Westgate SuperBook before moving to -8 to get in line with most everyone else.

    Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)

    The first-place Cowboys head to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Colts, who topped the first-place Texans to stay squarely in the playoff chase. This might not have looked like a great game a few weeks ago, but this might be one of the more intriguing battles on the card.

    Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -2 1/2 and was quickly bet up to -3 to get in line with most everyone else, although Stations and Treasure Island still have the Colts down at -2 1/2.

    Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 38)

    This is a game, not with teams jockeying for playoff positioning, but for draft position. Surprisingly we have seen a lot of early movement on this line, going from -1 1/2 to -2 1/2 in the matter of an afternoon at the Stratosphere.

    Nowhere has the movement been crazier than offshore at BetOnline.ag, however. This line opened with the Lions laying -2, quickly falling to a pick 'em within a matter of hours. The line, in less than 24 hours, has gone from Detroit -2 to Buffalo now favored -2 1/2, getting in line with most Vegas shops.

    Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 45)

    The Packers had a feel-good moment at home in interim head coach Joe Philbin's debut, topping the equally depressing Falcons. However, Green Bay's playoff hopes are on life support and they likely need to run the table with A LOT of help.

    A win in Chicago would go a long way toward helping Green Bay. Bettors are feeling the Pack, at least early on. The line moved from -6 1/2 to -6 at Caesars. The line at Southpoint opened at -5, and went up to -6 1/2 before falling back down to -5 1/2 all within a few hours.

    Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2.5, 43.5)

    The Titans emasculated the Jaguars last time out, and they have had the luxury of a couple of extra days' rest playing last Thursday. The Giants have not thrown in the towel, winning four of the past five while going 4-0-1 ATS. If you like the Titans, the line moved from -2 1/2 to -3 at the Strat.

    Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, 36)

    The Redskins hit the road for Jacksonville and they will start their fourth different quarterback in the past month and a half. QB Josh Johnson, recently signed a couple of weeks ago, will start for the ineffective QB Mark Sanchez. Most books have this line listed at -7, although if you're feeling the Jags, Mirage-MGM has the game listed at -6 1/2. Westgate opened it at -7 1/2, and it's down to -7 to get in line with mist everyone else. This total also could close at the lowest mark of the entire NFL season, too.

    Arizona Cardinals at Atlatna Falcons (-9, 44)

    There has been plenty of movement on this line, so shop around if you're interested in this game. Westgate opened the game at -7 1/2, moving up to -8 1/2 in less than 24 hours. TI hasn't had much movement, as the game has held steady at -8. Atlantis, Caesars and Mirage-MGM have held steady at -9. The total hasn't had any movement, hanging right in at 44 so far.

    Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 44.5) at San Francisco 49ers

    The Seahawks just handled the 49ers 43-16 on Dec. 2, easily covering a 10-point number with the 'over' hitting. Now, they meet 14 days later in the Bay Area. The 'Hawks have the unenviable position of coming back after an emotional Monday game before traveling on a short week. The Niners showed fortitude with surprising win against the Broncos in Week 14 to knock Denver off the rails.

    Westgate opened this game at -6 on Monday afternoon, slipping to -5 1/2 before going OFF during the Monday nighter. Most of the other shops where this game has been available, including Southpoint, is listed at -5 1/2. However, Jerry's Nugget opened the 'Hawks at -5, if you like Seattle.

    New England Patriots (-2.5, 49.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

    The marquee game of the weekend might be in the Steel City, as it's always entertaining when the Patriots and Steelers hook up. Surprisingly, both are coming off road losses despite being heavy favorites.

    Caesars saw a ton of early movement on this game, and it's likely just the start. The game opened at -1, quickly moving to -4, before falling back down to -2 1/2. That was the only Vegas shop offering this one, however, as QB Ben Roethlisberger banged up his ribs and his health is a driving factor on where this line will fall.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 53.5)

    The defending champs are on the ropes and in desperate need of a signature win. Time is running out. The Rams have already clinched the NFC West, but still have home-field advantage at stake so they need to keep winning.

    Caesars opened the game at -10, but bettors quickly jumped on that to bump it down to -9. The game has had a ton of movement at Westgate SuperBook, opening at -7 1/2, moving to -8 within an hour. It moved all the way up to -10 by midday Monday before falling back down slightly to -9 1/2. This will be a line to watch all week.

    Monday, Dec. 17

    New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 51.5) at Carolina Panthers


    The Saints received a gift from the Bears, as they dumped the Rams to send New Orleans to the top of the NFC standings. The Panthers are tumbling down the standings, losing five in a row to go from 6-2 SU to 6-7.

    This line is down to -6 1/2 at all shops, which is where it opened at a majority of shops. At Stations, TI and Westgate, the line went from -7 to -6 1/2 to get in line with everyone else. The total is on the move, going from 53 1/2 to 51 1/2 at Atlantis in rather quick order.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-11-2018 at 01:32 PM.

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    Sharps take early shot at Chargers' odds for NFL Week 15 clash vs. Chiefs
    Patrick Everson

    Star tight end Travis Kelce has helped the Chiefs compile the AFC's best record. However, the surging Chargers drew early sharp money for Thursday's Week 15 AFC clash against host Kansas City.

    As mid-December approaches, it’s definitely getting down to crunch time in the NFL’s race for postseason berths. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four Week 15 games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

    Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

    Kansas City is in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but this Thursday night clash will be key to staying in that seat. The Chiefs (11-2 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) converted two fourth downs to get a late fourth-quarter touchdown that forced overtime against Baltimore, then won 27-24 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 14.

    Los Angeles isn’t getting the headlines, but is having an excellent season and can tie K.C. for the best mark in the AFC with a win in the first game of Week 15. The Chargers (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) went off as hefty 17-point home faves against Cincinnati in Week 14 and bolted to a 14-3 lead, then held on for a 26-21 victory.

    “Crazy turn of events for the Chiefs, with them pulling out the victory over Baltimore and New England’s stunning loss to the Dolphins. The Steelers and Texans both lost, too,” Murray said. “Kansas City can basically wrap up the division and home field with a win here, but this is usually when Philip Rivers and the Chargers are at their best as a road ‘dog. This should be the best Thursday night game of the season and a very high-volume game for the books.”

    To Murray’s point, the Chargers got a little sharp play early at +3.5, so The SuperBook adjusted Los Angeles’ price to -120.

    “The wiseguys love betting the Chargers as a road ‘dog,” he said.


    New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (Off)

    New England is coming off an absolutely stunning Week 14 loss. Leading at Miami 33-28 with 16 seconds left and the Dolphins at their own 31-yard line, the Patriots (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) gave up a 69-yard pass play/double lateral for a touchdown to fall 34-33 laying 9.5 points.

    Pittsburgh’s wheels have fallen off over the past three weeks, with Mike Tomlin’s troops dropping three in a row SU and ATS. In Week 14, the Steelers (7-5-1 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) had a major toe-stub as 10.5-point favorites, giving up a final-minute touchdown in a 24-21 loss to Oakland.

    Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered a rib injury in the setback, though he did return and nearly rallied Pittsburgh to a victory.

    “We left this off the board because at the time we were doing the numbers, Roethlisberger was out of the game with the injury,” Murray said. “It should open with the Steelers a small favorite.”


    Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)

    Los Angeles had the best record in the league entering Week 14 and an offense averaging 34.9 points per game, second in the NFL to Kansas City. None of that was evident in the Sunday nighter at Chicago, as the Rams (11-2 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) fell 15-6 giving 3 points.

    Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is very likely looking at a much shorter season this year. The Eagles (6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS) desperately needed a win at Dallas in Week 14 and got a late TD to force overtime, but never saw the ball again in a 29-23 loss as 3.5-point road underdogs.

    “The Rams have failed to deliver as a big favorite several times this season,” Murray said, while noting that won’t necessarily stop bettors in the Week 15 Sunday nighter. “A lot of moneyline parlays and teasers this week will go to the Rams and the Saints (at Carolina) the following night. We will need the Eagles pretty big here.”

    The line quickly went to Rams -8, then -8.5, but Murray said that was more about getting in line with the market than any early action. Per standard SuperBook policy, the Eagles-Rams line was then taken off the board before the Rams-Bears game. The number will be rehung Monday morning.


    Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

    Dallas was 3-5 through eight games, then strung together five straight wins and covers to take control of the NFC East. The Cowboys (8-5 SU and ATS) gave up a late TD to Philadelphia, tying the game at 23, but got a touchdown on the only drive of overtime for a 29-23 victory giving 3.5 points at home.

    Indianapolis is having a pretty good second half of the season, too, winning six of its last seven games (4-2-1 ATS). The Colts (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) halted red-hot Houston’s nine-game win streak by notching a 24-21 victory as 4-point road pups in Week 14.

    “We thought we would take some money if we opened the game Dallas +3, and we did,” Murray said, noting early action moved Dallas’ price to -120 at the +3. “We are fine with that. And the Colts were very impressive in winning at Houston.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-11-2018 at 01:33 PM.

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    Betting Recap - Week 14
    Joe Williams

    Overall Notes

    National Football League Week 14 Results

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 8-7
    Against the Spread 6-9

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 11-4
    Against the Spread 9-6

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 7-8

    National Football League Year-to-Date Results
    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 131-73-2
    Against the Spread 92-107-7

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 127-78-2
    Against the Spread 102-97-7

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 98-108

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Raiders (+10, ML +425) vs. Steelers, 24-21
    Dolphins (+9, ML +350) vs. Patriots, 34-33
    Jets (+4.5, ML +180) at Bills, 27-23
    Colts (+4, ML +170) at Texans, 24-21

    The largest favorite to cover
    Saints (-9.5) at Buccaneers, 28-14
    Titans (-5.5) vs. Jaguars, 30-9
    Packers (-4) vs. Falcons, 34-20
    Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Eagles, 29-23 (OT)

    Bay Area Winners

    -- The Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers each won on the same day for the first time since Dec. 3, 2017, making Bay Area football fans happy for the first time in a while. The Raiders surprised the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 as double-digit home 'dogs, while the 49ers fired out to a big lead against the Denver Broncos and they held on for a 20-14 victory as short 'dogs at home. The 49ers entered the day 1-5 ATS in their first six games, and 3-9 ATS overall on the season. One of those wins and covers for the Niners were against the Raiders back on Nov. 1.

    Carolina Reaper

    -- The Carolina Panthers are skidding hard after opening the season 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS. The Panthers took a 26-20 loss against 'The Bake Show' and the Cleveland Browns, losing and failing to cover for the fifth consecutive outing. The defense has allowed 20 or more points in seven straight outings, and 11 of the past 12. On the flip side, the Browns are suddenly resembling an NFL caliber team for the first time in years, winning three of their past four outings while also going 3-1 ATS during the span. They're also 8-5 ATS overall in their 13 outings while going 5-7-1 SU.

    Total Recall

    -- The game with the highest total on the board (55) never even came close to going 'over'. The New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended up well 'under' in a 28-14 win for the Saints. New Orleans held up their end of the bargain, but head coach Dirk Koetter said after the game he was disappointed in his offense. The second-highest total on the board was the Pittsburgh-Oakland (51) game, and that game ended up going under, too. In fact, there were just 24 points on the board through three quarters and only a 21-point outburst in the fourth made that a closer total that maybe it should have been.

    -- The lowest totals on the board were a pair of 37-point lines in the New York Jets-Buffalo Bills contest, and that ended up with a total of 50 points. The Jacksonville Jaguars-Tennessee Titans on Thursday night saw a total of 39 points, as the Titans routed the Jags 30-9. It looked like the total was close, but it was actually over by the end of the third quarter before a scoreless fourth.

    -- The 'over/under' is 1-1 this week with the Monday nighter between the Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks (45.5) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 22-20 (52.4%).

    Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

    In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

    In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

    In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    -- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring) pulled a hamstring in Sunday's battle against the Jets in the first quarter and he wasn't able to return. We've seen this movie before.

    -- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (thigh) suffered a thigh injury in the team's road loss in San Francisco and he was unable to return.

    -- Jets RB Isaiah Crowell (foot) left Sunday's game in Buffalo and he was unable to return to action.

    -- Redskins TE Jordan Reed (foot) suffered a foot injury against the Giants and he was helped to the locker room and unable to return.

    Looking Ahead

    -- The Chargers and Chiefs will square off on Thursday in a key AFC West Division battle. The Chiefs punched their ticket to the postseason with a win on Sunday, and they can take charge (see what I did there?) of the AFC West with a win over the visitors from Los Angeles, currently one-game back of K.C. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, while the Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 inside the division. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, while the Chargers are 0-4 ATS in the past four in this series.

    -- The Packers travel down to Chicago to take on the red-hot Bears, who looked good in their win over the Rams on Sunday night. The Pack are just 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight road games and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in the past five divisional games, and 6-1 ATS in the past seven overall. The Packers have dominated this series lately, at least against the number, going 16-5 ATS in the past 21 at Soldier Field and 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five in Chicago, and each of the past four overall in this series.

    -- The Seahawks and 49ers do battle in the Bay Area, and San Francisco looks to play spoiler. Seattle is 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four overall. San Fran has failed to cover four in a row inside the division, five in a row against NFC foes and they're just 7-19-1 ATS in the past 27 aginst teams with a winning record while going 6-15 ATS in the past 21 at home. Seattle is 11-2-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings overall, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to San Francisco. The under is also 5-1 in the past six meetings in the Bay Area.

    -- The skidding Panthers host the Saints on Monday night in Week 15. New Orleans is 16-6 ATS in the past 22 inside the division, while going 20-6 ATS in the past 26 on the road. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a losing overall mark. Carolina is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 at home, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. However, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. New Orleans has covered four in a row in Charlotte, while going 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The under is also 11-4 in the past 15 in Carolina
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-11-2018 at 01:34 PM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 15


    Thursday. December 13

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    LA CHARGERS (10 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 2) - 12/13/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 99-71 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday. December 15

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    HOUSTON (9 - 4) at NY JETS (4 - 9) - 12/15/2018, 4:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CLEVELAND (5 - 7 - 1) at DENVER (6 - 7) - 12/15/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Sunday. December 16

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    MIAMI (7 - 6) at MINNESOTA (6 - 5 - 1) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    OAKLAND (3 - 10) at CINCINNATI (5 - 8) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OAKLAND is 51-84 ATS (-41.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 39-81 ATS (-50.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    TAMPA BAY (5 - 8) at BALTIMORE (7 - 6) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    DALLAS (8 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 6) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DALLAS is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    DETROIT (5 - 8) at BUFFALO (4 - 9) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    GREEN BAY (5 - 7 - 1) at CHICAGO (9 - 4) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 192-137 ATS (+41.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 63-39 ATS (+20.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 52-79 ATS (-34.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 5-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TENNESSEE (7 - 6) at NY GIANTS (5 - 8) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 52-28 ATS (+21.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WASHINGTON (6 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 9) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ARIZONA (3 - 10) at ATLANTA (4 - 9) - 12/16/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
    ATLANTA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
    ATLANTA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (7 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 10) - 12/16/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SEATTLE is 69-40 ATS (+25.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ENGLAND (9 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 5 - 1) - 12/16/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHILADELPHIA (6 - 7) at LA RAMS (11 - 2) - 12/16/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 189-238 ATS (-72.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 189-238 ATS (-72.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 135-188 ATS (-71.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 146-189 ATS (-61.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 66-101 ATS (-45.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday. December 17

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ORLEANS (11 - 2) at CAROLINA (6 - 7) - 12/17/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 116-86 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-11-2018 at 01:35 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    76,220
    Credits
    221,114

    Default

    NFL

    Week 15


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday. December 13

    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Chargers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
    LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 12 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
    LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games
    Kansas City is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 11 games at home
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
    Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers



    Saturday. December 15

    Houston Texans
    Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Houston is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
    Houston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
    Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
    Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
    Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games
    NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    NY Jets is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games at home
    NY Jets is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
    NY Jets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston

    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 5-19-1 SU in its last 25 games
    Cleveland is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
    Cleveland is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Cleveland's last 21 games on the road
    Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Denver
    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Denver is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
    Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
    Denver is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
    Denver is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Cleveland



    Sunday. December 16

    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games
    Green Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
    Green Bay is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 18 games on the road
    Green Bay is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Chicago
    Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Chicago
    Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games
    Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
    Chicago is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Green Bay
    Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
    Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
    Miami is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
    Miami is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games
    Minnesota is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
    Minnesota is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
    Minnesota is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
    Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
    Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Buffalo's last 22 games at home
    Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Detroit

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
    Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
    Tampa Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
    Baltimore Ravens
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
    Baltimore is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home
    Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
    Arizona is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 16 of Arizona's last 24 games on the road
    Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
    Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Arizona
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
    Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games
    Oakland is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Oakland's last 20 games
    Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Oakland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games on the road
    Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
    Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
    Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Oakland
    Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
    Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
    Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
    Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    NY Giants is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
    NY Giants is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    NY Giants is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Giants's last 18 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
    NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
    Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Washington is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
    Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
    Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 1-6-2 ATS in its last 9 games
    Jacksonville is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
    Jacksonville is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Jacksonville is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
    Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
    Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
    Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington

    Dallas Cowboys
    Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 22 games
    Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games on the road
    Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
    Indianapolis is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indianapolis's last 19 games at home
    Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Dallas

    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games on the road
    Seattle is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games when playing San Francisco
    Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games when playing San Francisco
    Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    San Francisco is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games
    San Francisco is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games at home
    San Francisco is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games at home
    San Francisco is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Seattle
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 12 games when playing Seattle
    San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
    San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle

    New England Patriots
    New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
    New England is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
    New England is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games on the road
    New England is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
    Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing New England
    Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
    Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
    Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Rams is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
    LA Rams is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
    LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    LA Rams is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia



    Monday. December 17

    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
    New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
    New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
    New Orleans is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
    New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
    New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New Orleans's last 15 games when playing on the road against Carolina
    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
    Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
    Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 15 games when playing at home against New Orleans


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-11-2018 at 01:36 PM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    76,220
    Credits
    221,114

    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 15


    NFL (PROFESSIONAL)

    SATURDAY DECEMBER 15, 2018


    Houston
    @
    NY Jets

    Game 303-304
    December 15, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Houston
    135.618
    NY Jets
    122.991
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Houston
    by 12 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Houston
    by 6
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Houston
    (-6); Over

    Cleveland
    @
    Denver

    Game 305-306
    December 15, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Cleveland
    131.972
    Denver
    131.846
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Cleveland
    Even
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Denver
    by 3
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Cleveland
    (+3); Under

    SUNDAY DECEMBER 16, 2018

    Miami
    @
    Minnesota

    Game 307-308
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Miami
    124.305
    Minnesota
    136.757
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Minnesota
    by 2 1/2
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Minnesota
    by 7
    43
    Dunkel Pick: Minnesota
    (-7); Under

    Oakland
    @
    Cincinnati

    Game 309-310
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Oakland
    125.127
    Cincinnati
    126.002
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Cincinnati
    by 1
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Cincinnati
    by 3 1/2
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Oakland
    (+3 1/2); Under

    Tampa Bay
    @
    Baltimore

    Game 311-312
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Tampa Bay
    125.134
    Baltimore
    139.811
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Baltimore
    by 14 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Baltimore
    by 8
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Baltimore
    (-8); Under

    Dallas
    @
    Indianapolis

    Game 313-314
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Dallas
    136.159
    Indianapolis
    134.330
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Dallas
    by 2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Indianapolis
    by 3
    47
    Dunkel Pick: Dallas
    (+3); Under

    Detroit
    @
    Buffalo

    Game 315-316
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Detroit
    124.772
    Buffalo
    128.536
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Buffalo
    by 4
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Buffalo
    by 2
    38
    Dunkel Pick: Buffalo
    (-2); Over

    Green Bay
    @
    Chicago

    Game 317-318
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Green Bay
    130.826
    Chicago
    138.749
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Chicago
    by 8 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Chicago
    by 5 1/2
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Chicago
    (-5 1/2); Over

    Tennessee
    @
    NY Giants

    Game 319-320
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Tennessee
    132.817
    NY Giants
    132.250
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Tennessee
    by 1
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: NY Giants
    by 2 1/2
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Tennessee
    (+2 1/2); Over

    Washington
    @
    Jacksonville

    Game 321-322
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Washington
    121.957
    Jacksonville
    125.665
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Jacksonville
    by 3 1/2
    32
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Jacksonville
    by 7 1/2
    36
    Dunkel Pick: Washington
    (+7 1/2); Under

    Arizona
    @
    Atlanta

    Game 323-324
    December 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Arizona
    121.504
    Atlanta
    126.404
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Atlanta
    by 5
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Atlanta
    by 9
    44
    Dunkel Pick: Arizona
    (+9); Over

    Seattle
    @
    San Francisco

    Game 325-326
    December 16, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Seattle
    132.337
    San Francisco
    128.976
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Seattle
    by 3 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Seattle
    by 6 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick: San Francisco
    (+6 1/2); Over

    New England
    @
    Pittsburgh

    Game 327-328
    December 16, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating: New England
    00.000
    Pittsburgh
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: New England

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: New England

    Dunkel Pick: New England
    ( );

    Philadelphia
    @
    LA Rams

    Game 329-330
    December 16, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating: Philadelphia
    130.231
    LA Rams
    136.938
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: LA Rams
    by 6 1/2
    58
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: LA Rams
    by 9 1/2
    54
    Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia
    (+9 1/2); Over

    MONDAY DECEMBER 17, 2018

    New Orleans
    @
    Carolina

    Game 331-332
    December 17, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating: New Orleans
    138.483
    Carolina
    134.573
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: New Orleans
    by 4
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: New Orleans
    by 6 1/2
    54
    Dunkel Pick: Carolina
    (+6 1/2); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-11-2018 at 01:48 PM.

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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 15


    Thursday

    Chargers (10-3) @ Chiefs (11-2)— First place in AFC West is at stake here; Chiefs won last nine series games, winning last four played here, by 12-7-6-13 points. KC won first meeting this year 38-28 (+3.5) in Week 1, even though Bolts outgained them 541-362- Rivers threw for 418 yards, but LA was -2 in turnovers (0-2). Chargers won nine of their last ten games, are 6-0 outside of LA this season; they’re 25-13-1 vs spread in last 39 games as road underdogs, 2-1 this year. Chiefs won six of last seven games; they scored 40-51 points in their two LOSSES this year. KC is 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorites (0-3 this year)- they were outscored in second half of their last our games. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Charger games, four of last five KC games went over.

    Saturday

    Texans (9-4) @ Jets (4-9)— Houston had its 9-game win streak snapped at home by Indy LW; Texans won their last four road games, three by either 2-3 points- they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven games as a road favorite (0-2 this year). Texans are +6 in turnovers their last three games, with no giveaways. Jets snapped a 6-game losing skid with win at Buffalo LW; they’re 2-4 at home, with all four losses by 8+ points. Under Bowles, Gang Green is 10-6-1 as home underdog, but 0-2 this year. Houston won last two series games, 23-17/24-17, after losing previous five meetings; Texans lost three of four series games played here. Three of last four Jet games went over the total; six of last nine Houston games stayed under.

    Browns (5-7-1) @ Broncos (6-7)— Cleveland won three of last four games; Gregg Williams is making strong case to be Browns’ coach in ’19. Browns are 1-5 SU on road, 2-3-1 as AU; last four years, they’re 10-19-1 as road dogs. Broncos won three of last four games but lost at 49ers LW, a bad loss; they’re +9 in turnovers in those four games, with only one giveaway. Denver is 3-3 SU at home, 0-2-1 as home favorite- under Joseph, Broncos are 1-5-1 vs spread as AU. Denver won last seven series games, winning last meeting 26-23 in OT three years ago. Browns lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 21+ points. Three of last four Cleveland games stayed under; last six Denver games also stayed under the total.

    Sunday

    Dolphins (7-6) @ Vikings (6-6-1)— Minnesota lost four of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home this year- under Zimmer, they’re 21-7 vs spread as home favorites, 4-2 this year. Vikings scored 10-7 points in last two games, scoring only two TD’s on last 23 drives. Dolphins won last two games to get back in playoff race; they lost their last five road games, with four losses by 10+ points; under Gase, Fish are 7-13 as road underdogs, 2-4 this year. Miami is 8-4 in series, winning last three meetings by 4-4-2 points; five of last six series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Dolphins lost three of last four visits here; they’ll be glad there’s a dome. Five of last six Minnesota games stayed under total; under is 3-1-1 in last five Miami games.

    Raiders (3-10) @ Bengals (5-8)— Not much to see here; Oakland split its last four games after a 1-8 start; they’re 1-6 away from home this year, 2-4 vs spread as road underdogs. Raiders are 3-9-1 vs spread in last 13 games as AU- they fired their GM Monday. Bengals are 0-5 since their bye (2-3 vs spread); Cincy is 3-4 at home, 1-3 as home favorite- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as HF. Bengals held Chargers to 288 TY in 26-21 loss LW, so neither side has quit trying. Cincy won three of last four series games; Raiders lost last two visits here by 24-17 points- their last win here was in ’95. Three of last four Oakland games, four of last six Bengal games went over the total, but both Driskel starts stayed under.

    Buccaneers (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)— Ravens’ QB Jackson (3-1 as starter) sprained ankle late in LW’s OT loss; check status for this- Flacco should be active to play if Jackson doesn’t. Ravens won three of last four games; they’re 4-2 SU at home, 3-3 as HF- last three years, they’re 10-9 as HF. Tampa Bay let Saints slip away LW after leading 14-3 at half; Bucs lost five of last seven games- they led last three at half. Tampa lost last five road games after winning opener in New Orleans- they’re 2-3-1 as AU this year, 3-6-1 last two years. Baltimore won last three series games, by 17-7-31 points; Bucs split their two visits here. Over is 3-1 in Jackson’s starts; four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under. Ravens are tied for #6 seed in AFC.

    Cowboys (8-5) @ Colts (7-6)— Two hot clubs; Dallas won/covered its last five games, Colts won six of last seven. Cowboys are 2-4 SU on road, winning last two- under Garrett, they’re 24-17 vs spread as road underdogs, 3-3 this year. In their last five games, Dallas ran ball for 138.2 ypg. Indy is 4-2 SU at home, 2-3-1 as HF; last four years, Colts are 9-10-1 as HF. lots are -4 in turnovers last three games and ran ball for only 41-50 yards last two weeks; three of their last four wins were by exactly three points. Dallas won last three series games, by 7-3-35 points, winning 42-7 in last meeting in ’14. Cowboys won 38-35 in OT in last visit here, in ’10. Four of last six Dallas games went over total; under is 3-0-1 in Colts’ last four games.

    Lions (5-8) @ Bills (4-9)— Detroit coach Patricia worked for Patriots, so he is familiar with trips to western NY. Lions lost five of their last seven games; they’re 2-4 SU on road, 2-2 as AU; they are 14-20 vs spread in last 34 games as AU. Bills lost six of last eight games; their last three were all decided by 4 or fewer points. Buffalo is 2-4 at home, with wins by 1-3 points; they’re 9-4-1 in last 14 games as home favorite- LW was first time this season they were favored. In their last four games, Bills ran ball for 183 yards/game. Buffalo won four of last five series games; last three were all decided by 3 or fewer points. Detroit lost its last three visits here, by 9-7-2 points. Four of last five Buffalo games went over total; six of last seven Detroit games stayed under.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-11-2018 at 01:41 PM.

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    Tech Trends - Week 15
    December 11, 2018
    By Bruce Marshall


    THURSDAY, DEC. 13

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    L.A. CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Chiefs have owned this series, won last 9 SU vs. Bolts, and KC 8-2 vs. spread last ten in series. Bolts are 5-1 vs. spread as visitor TY (not counting London vs. Titans) and 3-0 as dog, and Chiefs only one cover last six in 2018.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on series trends.

    SATURDAY, DEC. 15

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    HOUSTON at N.Y. JETS (NFL, 4:30 p.m. ET)
    Texans have won nine of last ten last SU and are 5-2 vs. spread last seven TY. Jets 2-5 last 7 and 4-8 last 12 vs. line TY, no covers last three at home.
    Tech Edge: Texans, based on recent trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    CLEVELAND at DENVER (NFL, 8:20 p.m. ET)
    Denver 6-2 last eight vs. spread in 2018. Broncos also “under” 10-3 TY and 13-4 last 17 since late 2017. Browns 7-4 as dog this season.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on recent “totals” trends.

    SUNDAY, DEC. 16

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    MIAMI at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Miami only 2-4 vs. spread away TY but is 8-5 overall vs. number and has covered last three. Tannehill 5-2 vs. spread in games he has started. Also “under” 6-1 last seven away. Vikings “under” 5 of last 6 TY and “under” 8-1 last nine at home in reg season.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Dolphins, based on “totals” and trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    OAKLAND at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Cincy on 1-7 SU and 2-6 spread slide. Oakland 5-8 vs. line TY, on 7-17-3 spread skid since early last season, though has covered three of last four. Raiders “over” thre eof last four TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders and “over”, based on recent team and “totals” trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Ravens have covered last three with Lamar Jackson in lineup. Bucs on 9-5 “over” run since late 2017 though “under” last three.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    DALLAS at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Dallas has now won and covered last five in 2018 and has covered 3 of last 4 on road. Colts however 6-1 SU last seven TY “under” last 4.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Cowboys, based on recent “totals” and team trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    DETROIT at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Lions 2-5 vs. spread last seven in 2018.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    GREEN BAY at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Pack 0-8 SU, 1-6-1 vs. line last 8 away since last LY. Though they have won 8 straight at Soldier Field dating to 2010 NFC title game. Bears 7-1 SU and vs. line at home since late 2017. Last four “over” in series.
    Tech Edge: Bears and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    TENNESSEE at N.Y. GIANTS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Eli 4-0-1 vs. line last five TY, though only 1-4-1 vs. spread at MetLife. Titans snapped 3-game spread skid with win over Jags but only 2-4 vs. spread as visitor TY (not counting London game).
    Tech Edge: Giants, based on recent trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    WASHINGTON at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Jags 1-9 SU and 1-6-2 vs. line last nine TY, but they are 3-2-1 vs. spread at home. Jags “under” 4-1 last five at home. Skins “under” 6-2 last 8 away since late LY.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    ARIZONA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Cards 6-4-1 last eleven vs. spread TY, 3-1-1 last five away. Falcs only 3-10 vs. line in 2018. Atlanta no covers last five, 1-4 last five vs. points at Mercedes-Benz.
    Tech Edge: Cards, based on recent trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Hawks 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 in 2018, covered last four away. Niners 2-5 last seven vs. line. Hawks have won last ten in series and 8-2 vs. spread in those.
    Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team and series trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Belichick has won last five and six of last seven SU vs. Tomlin, 5-1-1 vs. line. Steelers no SU wins last three or covers last four TY (0-3-1). Belichick “under” 12-6 in reg season since mid 2017. Steel however “over” 7-1 last eight at Heinz Field.
    Tech Edge: Patriots, based on series trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    PHILADELPHIA at L.A. RAMS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Rams surprisingly only 2 covers last ten TY (2-6-2), no covers last four at Coliseum (0-2-2). Birds 4-9 vs. line TY, 4-11-1 last 16 reg season. After 6-2 as dog LY, Eagles 0-2 TY. Birds “under” 10-5 last 15 in reg season.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    MONDAY, DEC. 17

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
    Saints won all three meetings LY (2-1 vs. line including wild card round) and have covered last four at Charlotte. Brees 10-1 vs. spread last ten TY, Cam no wins or covers last five. “Overs” 7-1 last eight meetings.
    Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Close Calls - Week 14
    December 11, 2018
    By Joe Nelson


    Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 14 of the NFL regular season with one of the wilder NFL Sundays in recent memory.

    Kansas City Chiefs (-6½) 27, Baltimore Ravens 24 (49):
    The AFC-leading Chiefs led by seven at halftime with a spread that slipped from -7½ to -6 or -6½ by kickoff. Baltimore tied the game late in the third quarter following a Patrick Mahomes interception. A big punt return put the Ravens in position for the upset and with just over four minutes to go Lamar Jackson found John Brown to give the underdog Ravens a seven-point edge. Mahomes cemented his MVP case with a great drive that included a pair of 4th down conversions, the second of which resulted in the game-tying touchdown in the final minute. That score also put the scoring at 48 on a total that reached as high as 53 before settling at 51 and dropping to 49 by kickoff. The Ravens had some time on the clock but disaster struck as a sack led to a fumble and the Chiefs had the ball in field goal range. Harrison Butker would miss from 43 yards at time expired however. Kansas City had the ball first and survived a fumble inside the red zone, ultimately giving Butker another opportunity and he was good from 35 yards. Baltimore crossed midfield but went backwards with a penalty and a sack that saw Jackson exit the game. Robert Griffin III entered and made a good throw on 4th-and-22 but Willie Snead couldn’t come up with it to extend the game. Baltimore still cashed underdog tickets and there were likely mixed results on the total.

    Cleveland Browns (+1) 26, Carolina Panthers 20 (48): The scoring pace in this game was hot early with a 17-17 halftime score as the Panthers and Browns traded scores. Cleveland fumbled on its first play of the second half but Carolina didn’t take advantage of the field position to add points and only later in the frame added a field goal to lead by three as slight road favorite entering the fourth quarter. Early in the fourth Nick Chubb put the Browns in front but the PAT was missed for just a three-point edge. Cleveland added a field goal a few minutes later but up by just six, all results were still in play. Carolina reached 1st-and-goal with about four minutes remaining but Cam Newton’s eventual 4th down throw sailed high. The Panthers would get another shot but Newton threw an interception on 1st down with a minute to go as the Browns and the ‘under’ held on.

    Green Bay Packers (-4) 34, Atlanta Falcons 20 (50½): Despite only managing 300 total yards in the game the Packers pulled away with a 34-7 lead late in the third quarter. Atlanta scored early in the fourth to put the total scoring at 48, just below the closing total. The Falcons reached the Green Bay 8-yard-line with about seven minutes remaining but a fumble kept points off the board. In the final minutes Atlanta kept a meaningless drive going with a 4th down conversion and then with 14 seconds to go hit a 19-yard touchdown pass on another 4th down play to bail out those on the ‘over’.

    New Orleans Saints (-9½) 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (55½): The Buccaneers led 14-3 at the half as they looked to sweep the season series with the Saints. The game seemed to swing on a blocked punt late in the third quarter as New Orleans got back in the game with a short-field touchdown. Early in the fourth New Orleans scored on 4th-and-goal with a Drew Brees reach to put New Orleans up by four and suddenly the hefty underdog cover was in danger for the home team. Another 3-and-out gave the Saints the ball back in good field position and New Orleans again scored to make the margin 11 points. The Buccaneers again had to punt and the Saints added a field goal to lead by 14 with just over a minute to go. A touchdown would still put the Buccaneers in position to cover however and Tampa Bay reached the New Orleans 26-yard-line in the final seconds before a holding call and an eventual interception in the end zone.

    New York Jets (+4½) 27, Buffalo Bills 23 (37): The Bills led 20-13 early in the third quarter after a short field goal after the Jets fumbled on the halftime kickoff. The Bills didn’t add points after another Jets turnover and then early in the fourth New York managed to tie the game. Buffalo missed a field goal on its next possession but after forcing a quick punt managed three points after a 62-yard drive, leading by three with just over two minutes to go on a spread that sat at -3½ before reaching -4 or -4½. Sam Darnold led a great late drive with the Jets rushing into the end zone on 4th-and-goal to take the lead for the first time in the game. Josh Allen would get intercepted to end the game for the Bills.

    Miami Dolphins (+9) 34, New England Patriots 33 (50½): The Patriots led 30-28 late in the fourth quarter but couldn’t quite burn off the remaining clock and didn’t find the end zone, ultimately kicking a 22-yard field goal with 16 seconds remaining to lead by five when a touchdown could have put New England by nine on a spread that bounced around between -7 and -9. The Dolphins returned the kickoff to the 31 and had one play left, it turned out to be a play that will be remembered for a long time as a two laterals after a Ryan Tannehill completion left Kenyan Drake with room to maneuver, eventually going the distance for a 69-yard game-winning score.

    Los Angeles Chargers (-16½) 26, Cincinnati Bengals 21 (48): The Bengals were never out of position to cover the massive underdog spread in this game but their late bid to tie the game had a huge impact on the total. The ‘under’ felt safe with just 32 points into the fourth quarter and matching field goals didn’t change that trajectory. Cincinnati would complete a touchdown drive just after the two-minute warning and lined up for a two-point conversion that would have tied the game. The attempt was not a success as the Chargers led 23-21 and the total sat just ‘under’. After holding the on-side kick attempt the Chargers added a late field goal to secure the win and put the scoring at 46, just below the closing figure of 48 after an opener at 47.

    Dallas Cowboys (-3) 29, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (45): Eagles backers had a right to be fuming early in Sunday’s big afternoon showcase game in the NFC East with a Dallas fumble on the opening kickoff handed back to the Cowboys on a simply unimaginable replay review decision. From there just 15 points were scored through three quarters and the underdog Eagles tied the game at just 9-9 early in the fourth quarter. These rivals scored four touchdowns in the final eight minutes for a 23-23 tie to incredibly hit the ‘over’ when the ‘under’ appeared to be in a very safe position most of the way. Dallas was in position to have a game-winning field goal attempt at the end of regulation but had a fumble and then a sack to cost the team 15 yards. In overtime Dallas again appeared to stall in field goal range but opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 from the 19-yard-line rather than kicking a relatively sure field goal. The Cowboys got the conversion and then on 3rd-and-8 connected for a game-winning and spread-covering touchdown on a lucky bounce as a deflected pass wound up in Amari Cooper’s hands.

    Oakland Raiders (+10) 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 21 (51):
    The heavy underdog Raiders came to play in this old rivalry as the double-digit underdog was in position to cover the entire way. The ‘under’ also seemed safe with a 14-10 score through three quarters which held until the Raiders took the lead 17-14 with a touchdown with just over five minutes remaining in the game. Both teams would score again for a 24-21 Oakland edge in the final seconds. The Steelers picked up a huge gain on a lateral play to set-up a game-tying field goal that would have put those on the ‘over’ miraculously back in play but Chris Boswell’s plant foot slipped and his 40-yard attempt failed as the ‘under’ held on.

    Seattle Seahawks (-3) 21, Minnesota Vikings 7 (45½): Both defenses were tough in this Monday NFC showdown with a 3-0 lead for Seattle through three quarters after Minnesota failed going for it on 4th-and-1 across midfield. In good field position Seattle got the biggest play of the game to that point with a 31-yard pass interference call on the first play of the 4th quarter, a play with minimal contact on a debatably catchable pass. That put Seattle at 1st-and-goal and Seattle got past the home favorite spread with a field goal to lead 6-0. Minnesota would go right down the field on its next possession but stalled inside the 2-yard-line and threw incomplete on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard-line. Minnesota’s defense forced a 3-and-out and returned to Seattle territory, opting for a 47-yard field goal try. Bobby Wagner blocked the kick but was flagged for pushing off teammates to leap over a gap, a new rule emphasized this season. Without explanation the flag was picked up as for the second time in the game a clear 15-yard penalty on Wagner was missed after he got away with a facemask in the 1st quarter. With the block Seattle took over downs near midfield when the penalty would have given Minnesota 1st down at the Seattle 14-yard-line in an egregious officiating mistake that created a huge swing in the potential result of the game. A big Russell Wilson scramble put the game away for the Seahawks who would also add a late score on defense before Minnesota avoided the shutout with a garbage-time touchdown for a very misleading final score.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Wow!!! They got nfl out fast this time! THANKS, BUM!!!!!!

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil


    MIXED MESSAGES FROM THE CHIEFS

    It was a confusing day if you’re a Tyreek Hill fan or fantasy owner. First, reports surfaced on Monday that Hill told reporters "my foot's bad”, making it seem like he would be doubtful for Thursday. Later, however, reports stated that his heel injury wasn’t as severe as originally thought. Hill missed practice on Monday but coach Andy Reid said he expects Hill to be in uniform for the Chiefs' game against the Chargers.

    Spencer Ware also missed practice with shoulder and hamstring issues but is also expected to play in Week 15.

    We’re assuming Hill will be in uniform for what is the biggest game of the year so far in the AFC and it looks like he might have a nice matchup ahead of him. The Chargers are generally tough against the pass, ranked ninth in DVOA, but really seem to struggle against the opponent’s top wideout, with a rank of 30th in DVOA to the position (as highlighted by Antonio Brown’s Week 13 performance of 10-154-1).

    As for Hill's injury, it didn’t seem to bother him too much on Sunday against Baltimore as he produced most of his 8-139 stat line after briefly leaving the game to get his foot wrapped up. Monitoring his status over the next couple of days will be key but as of Tuesday, we’re leaning towards backing the Over for Hill’s receiving yards total, assuming he’s on the field.


    EKELER IN PROTOCOL

    Chargers running back Austin Ekeler is looking like a long shot for Thursday night as he has now been placed in the league’s concussion protocol in addition to the neck injury he suffered on Sunday. Melvin Gordon (knee) also remained on the sideline at practice on Monday, though reports said he “could play” against the Chiefs.

    For now, both are looking doubtful, meaning the Chargers will roll into their biggest game of the season with rookies Justin Jackson and Detrez Newsome as their healthy backs.

    If Ekeler and Gordon both sit, Jackson would handle the bulk of the work in a very nice matchup against a Chiefs defense that is ranked dead last in DVOA against the run. K.C. allowed 198 rushing yards on Sunday to Baltimore and gives up 127.8 yards on 25.2 carries per game.

    Jackson came crashing down to earth last week with 1.7 yards per carry after averaging eight yards per attempt on 15 carries in the two prior weeks. It was a bit discouraging that he couldn’t find holes against a Bengals rush defense (28th in rushing DVOA) that is almost as bad as the Chiefs’, but he’ll have a great chance to rebound with a ton of volume and a great spot on TNF. We’ll be looking to take the Over on his rushing yards total if Ekeler and Gordon both sit.
    Sharps take early shot at Chargers' odds for NFL Week 15 clash vs. Chiefs


    HARBAUGH TALKS QBs

    John Harbaugh had an interesting media session on Monday as he made it sound like Joe Flacco (hip) will be healthy enough to play for the Ravens in Week 15 against Tampa Bay, but stopped short at committing to him as the starter. He also suggested that Lamar Jackson will be fine after getting hurt late in overtime against the Chiefs.

    "We have a plan," Harbaugh told the media. "We have to talk to the guys about it. Whether we share that publicly, we'll have to decide as the week goes on."

    Baltimore’s quarterback situation is messy and it sounds as if the players don’t even know what is happening upon Flacco’s return. Jackson played decently in his absence with a 3-1 record but all four games were cupcake matchups and with just 600 passing yards on 89 attempts, he certainly didn’t do enough to seize the starting job.

    It’s possible that we see the Ravens move forward with packages for both quarterbacks, assuming both are healthy. From a betting and fantasy standpoint, this is going to be a situation to avoid (unless either Flacco or Jackson are ruled out) until we get more clarity.


    TANNEHILL ‘SORE’

    Speaking to the media on Monday, Dolphins coach Ryan Gase said that quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s ankle was “sore” but that he was “walking around.” Tannehill was forced out of Sunday’s game against New England but managed to return. As of Tuesday, it sounds as if Gase expects Tannehill to be on the field when the Dolphins visit the Vikings on Sunday.

    Here’s a crazy stat: Tannehill currently ranks sixth in the NFL in passer rating behind only Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Matt Ryan. Did you ever expect to see Tannehill on a list with those names?

    Regardless, on Sunday he’s going to be hobbled and facing a defense that just held Wilson to 10-of-20 passing for 72 yards and an interception. The Dolphins are also going to review tape from the Monday nighter and see that the Vikings are vulnerable to the run after the Seahawks piled up 214 rushing yards.

    The Vikings are facing a must-win at home and we expect Tannehill to come crashing back to earth on Sunday. We’re taking the Under on Tannehill’s passing yards total for Week 15.


    CLEMENT’S SEASON FINISHED?

    Philadelphia plucked running back Boston Scott from New Orleans’ practice squad on Monday, suggesting that Corey Clement’s knee injury that he suffered on Sunday could be serious. Scott’s signing shouldn’t have much effect on Week 15 as he still needs to learn the offense, but Clement’s absence should create a few more touches for Josh Adams.

    The Eagles ran the ball just 14 times for 34 yards against Dallas on Sunday but that was likely due to game script (falling behind 9-0) and the fact that the Cowboys feature a stout rush defense. For what it’s worth, Adams had 36 yards on the ground on seven carries, while the rest of the backfield accounted for negative yardage on seven carries.

    Philly heads to L.A. in Week 15 to play the Rams on Sunday Night Football as a nine-point underdog, which isn’t ideal for a running back, but Philly will need to run to keep Jared Goff and the high-octane Rams’ offense off the field. It also helps that L.A. ranks 25th in rushing DVOA and are allowing 124.2 rushing yards per game (23rd in the NFL). We’re backing the Over for Adams’ rushing yards total on Sunday.

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    NFL's Best ATS Teams (based on cover %):

    1. Saints 10-3 ATS
    2. Bears 9-4 ATS
    3. Seahawks 8-3-2 ATS
    4. Chiefs 8-4-1 ATS
    t5. Pats 8-5 ATS
    t5. Cowboys
    t5. Dolphins
    t5. Browns


    NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

    32. Falcons 3-10 ATS
    t30. Niners 4-9 ATS
    t30. Eagles
    29. Jaguars 4-7-2 ATS
    t25. Raiders 5-8 ATS
    t25. Jets
    t25. Bills
    t25. Panthers


    NFL Top OVER Teams (based on Over %)

    1. Chiefs 8-4-1
    t2. Bears 8-5
    t2. Bengals
    t2. Jets
    t2. Bucs
    t6. Falcons 7-6
    t6. Panthers
    t6. Packers
    t6. Chargers
    t6. Giants
    t6. Steelers
    t6. Niners


    NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

    1. Broncos 9-3-1
    t2. Cardinals 8-5
    t2. Texans 8-5
    t2. Vikings 8-5
    t2. Pats 8-5
    t2. Saints 8-5
    t2. Eagles 8-5

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    Hot & Not Report

    Week of December 10th

    With the college basketball world on a bit of a hiatus as winter exams have arrived, last week's dissection of two of the sports conferences can be put on hold. The West Coast Conference is still loaded with ATS money makers, as the worst ATS record for anyone in that conference is just one game below the .500 mark.

    The SEC continued to struggle covering spreads as well, as they continue to be a top candidate to be a victim of their own success/depth in the betting markets of non-conference play. With so many good teams it will be interesting to see how conference play shakes out in January/February, and it won't be until then that I'll come back and take a snapshot of the entire CBB betting landscape again.

    Today, it's back to the football world as the NFL has hit the stretch drive and the playoff picture should start to get clearer each week. Motivational angles should be considered more often in December, but with some division leaders recently struggling, it's time to look at betting scenarios that have been quite streaky one way or another of late.

    Who's Hot

    Home Underdogs – 10-5 ATS last two weeks, including 9-6 SU


    It's been a good two-week run for backing home underdogs – especially on the ML – as they've cashed at a 67% rate. Home underdogs tend to be spots bettors should naturally gravitate towards when the scenario/situation fits, and over the past two weeks with some very prominent teams laying road chalk, it's those favorites that have got burned in all sorts of ways.

    There have been the offensive powerhouses like the Rams and Saints losing SU and ATS to home underdogs that pride themselves on great defensive play (Dallas, Chicago). Chicago was actually a team that got caught the week before knocking off L.A in the road chalk role, as the New York Giants beat up on the Bears for most of the game and managed to not fully blow it by getting the win in OT.

    This past week we had a couple of “miracle” comebacks in the final minute by the likes of Miami and Oakland to pull off SU and ATS wins as sizable home underdogs against the Patriots and Steelers respectively. Considering New England and Pittsburgh meet in Pittsburgh this weekend, it's pretty safe to say in retrospect that both organizations likely had one eye already on Week 15.

    All of that stuff matters in December, and when bad teams are at home, knowing their season is done in a few weeks, and they get to host a playoff-caliber squad, those games become like “playoff” games for the home underdog, and so far they've performed up to the challenge in recent weeks. Whether or not that continues remains to be seen, but it looks like we've got just four candidates to consider in the home 'dog role for Week 15.

    The New York Jets (+6.5 vs Houston), San Francisco (+6 vs Seattle), Carolina (+6.5 vs New Orleans), and likely Pittsburgh (+2 range vs New England), are this week's candidates in that role. You can make cases for fading all four of their opponents for various reasons, but don't be surprised to see one of these home underdogs win outright in Week 15. At least one home underdog has won outright in every week this season from Week 2 on, so getting behind the Jets, 49ers, or Panthers (and probably Steelers) should be making everyone's handicapping short list as the week goes on.

    Who's Not

    NFC Super Bowl representatives from the last three years – 1-14 ATS last five weeks combined


    Carolina, Atlanta, and Philadelphia have all been hit hard by injuries at various points of the year, and it's looking like those injuries combined with some poor overall play will have all three of these franchises on their couches watching playoff football.

    Atlanta already knows they'll have a long off-season ahead of them, as their last shot at staying relevant was a few weeks ago back in New Orleans when turnovers and sloppiness officially did them in. Having gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, the Falcons have shown little to no heart down the stretch. You've got to wonder if big organizational changes are coming to Atlanta this spring, but with Arizona, Carolina, and Tampa Bay left to play out the string, backing this uninspired Falcons team is not high on the “To-Do list” the rest of the year.

    Carolina and Philadelphia still have a shot at getting into the playoffs, although the two of them (along with Minnesota) are basically fighting it out for one spot now. Considering Carolina is on a 0-5 SU and ATS run right now, and Philly is 3-7 ATS in their last 10, Week 15 might be the final curtain call for both organizations in 2018 when you consider who they are up against respectively.

    Philadelphia heads to LA to take on the Rams on SNF, with what is basically their season on the line. The Eagles nearly fought all the way back to beat Dallas last week to stay in the NFC East hunt, but that loss all bunk sunk them in that regard, and they are likely to have a tough time picking themselves back up after a game like that. The Eagles are catching nearly double-digits against a Rams team that was somewhat exposed by Chicago, but you've got to have a great defense like the Bears to take advantage of that. The Eagles secondary has been obliterated by injuries all year long, and even if they were healthy, their defense just doesn't compare to Chicago's.

    The Panthers at least have the added benefit of being at home this week, but hosting the Saints on MNF is no picnic with their season on the line. Carolina is already officially out of their division chase so it's just a Wildcard berth to fall back on, but they don't have a defense like the one the Cowboys possess when they shut down New Orleans a few weeks ago. The Saints are still out there playing for 1st seed in the NFC, so there isn't likely to be any post-division clinch letdown, especially when it's a prime time game to conclude the week.

    Should Philadelphia and Carolina lose SU this week, you can add them to the list with Atlanta of teams I would not look to back the rest of the way. All three of these recent Super Bowl participants had much higher expectations for 2018, and to come up as short as they are puts them in the role of being “lame duck” teams that should be great fades as they all look to preserve their health for 2019 and beyond.
    Last edited by Udog; 12-11-2018 at 09:10 PM.

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    By: Brandon DuBreuil



    VIKINGS FIRE OC

    The Vikings acted quickly after an embarrasing offensive performance on primetime, firing offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and promoting quarterbacks coach Kevin Stefanski to OC. Former Vikings OC Pat Shurmur tried to take Stefanski with him when he accepted the Giants head coaching job over the summer, but Minnesota blocked the interview request. The organization obviously thinks very highly of the man now tasked with making the Kick Cousins $84 million investment look like money well spent.

    It remains to be seen what kind of changes Stefanski will implement, but it can reasonably be assumed that he’ll incorporate more running plays as Minnesota ranks 31st in rushing attempts at 21.1 per game. The Vikings currently sit third-last in total rushing yards and are 25th in rushing yards per attempt. Running plays will be on the menu in Week 15 as the Vikings matchup with the Dolphins.

    Miami isn’t the best matchup for running backs, ranking 17th in DVOA, but they are giving up 139.5 rushing yards per game, the third-highest total in the league. We expect a renewed focus on the running game will lead to a big game from Dalvin Cook on Sunday and we’ll be backing the Over on his rushing yards total.


    BIG BEN EXPECTS TO PLAY

    Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger expects to suit up for Sunday’s clash with New England after he was knocked out of Sunday’s game with a rib injury. Big Ben did return to the game late in the fourth quarter, with coach Mike Tomlin telling reporters that Roethlisberger was waiting for the painkillers to kick in before getting back on the field.

    Roethlisberger and the Steelers host Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in one of the premier games of Week 15. Big Ben tends to play well at home and he has thrown for 300-plus yards in five of his last six against New England (he threw for 281 in the other).

    The Pats rank 19th in passing DVOA but are significantly worse at defending the pass away from Gillette Stadium as they are giving up 293.4 passing yards on the road, as compared to 248 at home. The road struggle was in full effect last week as they allowed 265 passing yards on just 19 attempts to Ryan Tannehill. Take the Over for Roethlisberger’s passing yards total.


    CROWELL IN BOOT

    Jets running back Isaiah Crowell was seen sporting a walking boot on his injured foot on Tuesday, which obviously isn’t a great signal for his availability when New York hosts Houston on Saturday.

    The Jets were actually without their top three running backs at practice on Tuesday as Elijah McGuire and Trenton Cannon also sat out with injuries. The Jets might be forced to make a roster move before the weekend, but it’s a bad situation regardless.

    The Jets were likely to throw a lot against the Texans anyway, as Houston ranks third in rushing DVOA but 16th against the pass. Sam Darnold threw just 24 passes last week in his first game back from injury, but will be forced into a lot more on Saturday.

    Andrew Luck threw 41 passes against the Texans last week and Baker Mayfield had 43 attempts against them the week before that. With no healthy running backs and going against a very tough rush defense, we expect Darnold to do quite a bit of throwing as well. Take the Over on his number of pass attempts.


    BENJAMIN A NON-FACTOR?

    Even with Sammy Watkins out and Tyreek Hill banged up, beat writers in Kansas City don’t expect Kelvin Benjamin to play extended snaps on Thursday when the Chiefs host the Chargers. In fact, the team hasn’t even confirmed whether he’ll suit up. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as Benjamin has only been with the team for less than a week.

    Last week, under similar circumstances, we expected Chris Conley to play a role but he had just two catches for 13 yards. Instead Demarcus Robinson contributed with five receptions for 42 yards.

    Picking whoever gets involved as the Chiefs' WR2 on a week-by-week basis seems like a coin flip, so we’ll turn to the ever-consistent Travis Kelce, who got us a winner with Over 6.5 receptions last week. Kelce has posted five or more receptions in every game this season except Week 1 when he caught just one pass for seven yards against the Chargers.

    We’re labeling that performance as an anomaly, however, as the Chargers haven’t been particularly good against tight ends this season, ranking 19th in DVOA against the position and are giving up eight passes and 56.7 yards per game.

    Kelce is priced extremely high this week, with a receptions total of 7.5 and a receiving yards total of 85.5, but the best value might be in backing him to get into the end zone — something he has done four times in the past three games. We’re taking the Over 0.5 on his touchdown receptions total (-128).


    D-JAX REMAINS DOUBTFUL

    Buccaneers receiver DeSean Jackson hasn’t called it a season yet but remains unable to squeeze a football due to a thumb injury. He’s looking very doubtful for Week 15 when Tampa Bay travels to Baltimore, meaning the Bucs will move forward with Chris Godwin on the perimeter behind Mike Evans and Adam Humphries in the slot.

    We backed Godwin last week in what was a plus matchup but he was a bust with just one catch for 13 yards. This week, he's in a tough spot against a defense that ranks fourth in DVOA to both WR1 and WR2.

    The Bucs passing game as a whole will be challenged on Sunday, but Humphries might be the best bet as the Ravens rank 14th against inside wide receivers and are allowing 6.3 passes for 45.5 yards per game. Humphries posted four receptions in Week 14 but had six and seven in the two games prior. We like his chances of getting back to five or more catches and we’re taking the Over on his receptions total.

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