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Thread: Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/10

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    Default Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/10

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, December 10

    Good Luck on day #344 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks for Week 14 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Indianapolis Colts +5 (988)- W

    2) Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (797)- L

    3) Los Angeles Rams -3 (791)- L

    4) Buffalo Bills -3 (761)- L

    5) New Jersey Giants -3.5 (711)- W

    6) Chicago Bears +3 (694)- W

    Season record: 43-38-3


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…..

    Chiefs 27, Ravens 24 OT— Chiefs converted a 4th-and-9 with 1:20 left that would’ve ended game, then they tied game with 0:53 left, and won it with a FG on first down of OT, followed by a defensive stop. This was a playoff-quality game. Lamar Jackson got hurt at the end of OT; not sure how severe the injury is, but Robert Griffin III played the last two plays of the game.

    Ravens ran ball for 198 yards, but were outgained 441-321.

    There are four teams at 7-6 in AFC, which is second Wild Card spot, so last three weeks are going to be fun. Denver’s (6-7) loss in San Francisco could be a crippler for them.

    Dolphins 34, Patriots 33— One of wildest endings ever; Miami had ball on its own 31-yard line with 0:02 left, down 33-28. They complete a pass over middle about 20 yards down field, toss two fairly short laterals, and they score the game-winning TD. New England’s defense doesn’t have lot of real fast guys. Really a shocking ending.

    Patriots have now lost five of their last six visits to Miami; home team won 11 of last 12 series games. New England is 3-4 on road this year; Miami is 6-1 at home. Dolphins are 8-3-1 vs spread in last dozen games as home underdogs. Dolphins’ playoff hopes are still alive.

    Saints 28, Buccaneers 14— Tampa Bay’s special teams totally screwed this game up; they missed two pretty easy FG’s (46, 40 yards) when they were ahead, had a punt blocked in 3rd quarter when they led 14-3 and New Orleans looked dead.

    Saints’ first six drives: 28 plays, 108 yards, 3 points
    Saints’ last four drives (after blocked punt): 33 plays, 175 yards, 25 points

    First time these teams played, when Bucs won 48-40 in Week 1, there were 15 plays of 20+ yards; there were only four such plays in this game.

    Last five years, Saints are 15-8 vs spread coming off a loss; they’re 17-6 vs spread in last 23 road games, 6-1 this year.

    Colts 24, Texans 21— Andrew Luck is Comeback Player of the Year; Indy won six of last seven games after a 1-5 start. Ravens’ loss, coupled with this result and Miami’s win, totally jumble race for second Wild Card in AFC.

    Houston could’ve claimed #2 spot in AFC with win here; their 9-game win streak ends. Texans ran for only 89 yards in this game.

    Browns 26, Panthers 20— Carolina was inside 10-yard line in last minute, but Newton threw two incomplete passes and Cleveland held on to improve to 5-7-1, while Panthers lost their 5th game in row- they’re 1-6 on road this season.

    Carolina had 12-yard edge in field position, was +1 in turnovers, but lost. Scoring 20 points (two TDs, two FGs) on five red zone drives isn’t good enough. Cleveland is 5-7-1; how do you not consider Gregg Williams for the permanent head coaching position?

    Packers 34, Falcons 20— Green Bay started this game by losing two replay challenges in first 1:23, which just never happens, but then they whacked Atlanta, scoring five of the first six times they had the ball, and also adding a defensive TD.

    Falcons lost their lost their last five games, scoring 17 ppg; they’re 0-7 this season scoring 20 or less points, 4-2 scoring more- they’re 1-5 on road. If you own the Falcons, do you stay the course with this coach and this QB? They’ve got injuries, but they also look like a team that has quit.

    Jets 27, Bills 23— 49ers, Raiders both won; had the Jets lost this game, they would’ve had inside track to #1 pick in the draft.

    With 1:22 left and Bills up 23-20, Jets had 4th-and goal inside 1-yard line; they went for it and ran ball in for a TD. TV guys had been babbling about how Jets HAD TO GO for it— why? Where does it say that you have to?

    Jets had a 20-yard edge in field position in this game; they were outgained 368-248, but snapped a 6-game losing streak. Allen was just 18-37 passing- he did run for 101 yards.

    If they re-did the 2018 draft today, Mayfield/Barkley would probably still be top two picks, but what about Darnold/Allen/Rosen? How do they stack up now?

    Giants 40, Redskins 16— Pet peeve of mine; NFL is a multi-billon dollar business, yet they cheap out when it comes to QB’s. Every NFL team should have three QB’s active every week, even if the #3 QB is a separate part of the roster. Why? So you don’t get situations like the Redskins have, with two QB’s on roster, neither of whom has been with the team for two weeks yet. It kills the quality of the product; you cannot compete without a QB who knows the plays.

    Giants’ rookie RB Barkley only ran ball 14 times, but for 170 yards; he is definitely on a pitch count- his backup ran ball 14 times, too. Giants won four of last five games, but three of the four wins were vs backup QB’s. This was a horrendous day for the Redskins.

    Which the score 40-16 and Washington driving with about 4:30 left, Redskins’ WR Doctson got a taunting penalty after he made a 20-yard catch; penalty took ball from 2-yard to the 17, then Washington threw an INT on next play. Grow the bleep up, shut up and play!!! Winning teams aren’t stupid. Losing teams do stuff like this all the time.

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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Monday, December 10



    Pittsburgh @ NY Islanders

    Game 35-36
    December 10, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    10.089
    NY Islanders
    12.019
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Islanders
    by 2
    8
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    -135
    6 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Islanders
    (+115); Over

    NY Rangers @ Tampa Bay


    Game 37-38
    December 10, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Rangers
    12.037
    Tampa Bay
    11.089
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Rangers
    by 1
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tampa Bay
    -260
    6 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Rangers
    (+220); Over

    Los Angeles @ Detroit


    Game 39-40
    December 10, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Los Angeles
    11.791
    Detroit
    9.939
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Los Angeles
    by 2
    8
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    -120
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Los Angeles
    (+100); Over

    New Jersey @ San Jose


    Game 41-42
    December 10, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Jersey
    12.263
    San Jose
    9.492
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Jersey
    by 3
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Jose
    -200
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Jersey
    (+170); Under





    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Monday, December 10


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    PITTSBURGH (12-10-0-6, 30 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (14-11-0-3, 31 pts.) - 12/10/2018, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 12-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games this season.
    PITTSBURGH is 12-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) first half of the season this season.
    NY ISLANDERS are 10-3 ATS (+13.9 Units) vs. division opponents this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY ISLANDERS is 5-6 (+2.2 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 6-5-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.6 Units)

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    NY RANGERS (14-12-0-3, 31 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (23-7-0-1, 47 pts.) - 12/10/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 23-8 ATS (+32.7 Units) in all games this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 16-2 ATS (+12.4 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
    TAMPA BAY is 23-8 ATS (+11.0 Units) first half of the season this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 10-1 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 50-20 ATS (+18.3 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
    NY RANGERS are 131-126 ATS (+274.5 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
    TAMPA BAY is 397-427 ATS (-187.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
    TAMPA BAY is 183-213 ATS (-80.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY RANGERS is 3-3 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    TAMPA BAY is 3-3-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.1 Units)

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    LOS ANGELES (11-18-0-1, 23 pts.) at DETROIT (13-13-0-4, 30 pts.) - 12/10/2018, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LOS ANGELES is 95-104 ATS (-35.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    DETROIT is 449-345 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LOS ANGELES is 4-1 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    LOS ANGELES is 4-1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.7 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW JERSEY (10-12-0-6, 26 pts.) at SAN JOSE (15-11-0-5, 35 pts.) - 12/10/2018, 10:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW JERSEY is 2-10 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
    NEW JERSEY is 3-12 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games first half of the season this season.
    NEW JERSEY is 3-11 ATS (+15.1 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
    SAN JOSE is 183-153 ATS (-81.3 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
    SAN JOSE is 6-10 ATS (-12.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    SAN JOSE is 7-11 ATS (-10.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
    SAN JOSE is 3-8 ATS (-8.9 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
    SAN JOSE is 220-159 ATS (-63.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN JOSE is 4-1 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
    SAN JOSE is 4-1-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NHL

    Monday, December 10


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Pittsburgh Penguins
    Pittsburgh is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Islanders
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing NY Islanders
    Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
    Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
    New York Islanders
    NY Islanders is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    NY Islanders is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Islanders's last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Islanders's last 5 games at home
    NY Islanders is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Islanders's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    NY Islanders is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    NY Islanders is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Islanders's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

    Los Angeles Kings
    Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games
    Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Los Angeles is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games on the road
    Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
    Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
    Los Angeles is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Detroit Red Wings
    Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
    Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
    Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
    Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

    New York Rangers
    NY Rangers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 6 games
    NY Rangers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    NY Rangers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 6 games on the road
    NY Rangers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Rangers's last 10 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Tampa Bay Lightning
    Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
    Tampa Bay is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games at home
    Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Rangers
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing at home against NY Rangers

    New Jersey Devils
    New Jersey is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    New Jersey is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Jersey's last 9 games
    New Jersey is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    New Jersey is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
    New Jersey is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games on the road
    New Jersey is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
    New Jersey is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 7 games when playing San Jose
    New Jersey is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Jose
    San Jose Sharks
    San Jose is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose's last 6 games
    San Jose is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose's last 6 games at home
    San Jose is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey
    San Jose is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 7 games when playing New Jersey
    San Jose is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Jersey


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-10-2018 at 01:09 PM.

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    This week's NHL betting predictions and picks: Look to history for the pick in Ducks-Stars
    Monty Andrews

    The Dallas Stars travel to Anaheim on Wednesday night in a matchup that has historically favored the home team.

    It's a reverse "Beverly Hills Cop" showdown Monday as the Los Angeles Kings visit the Detroit Red Wings – and you'll forgive the Kings for wishing they could skip the trip to Hockeytown. That highlights a fun early-week schedule that also includes the league's best and worst defenses squaring off in Nashville, and a pair of talented No. 1 overall picks tangling at high altitude.

    We cover these games and much more in our NHL betting cheat sheet with need-to-know betting notes, goalie profiles and injury news to help you crack the odds for the early-week action in the NHL.

    Not the Kings of Detroit

    Los Angeles has had trouble winning anywhere this season – and that trend isn't likely to be reversed Monday as the Kings visit a Detroit Red Wings team that has dominated the head-to-head series in Michigan. The Kings have just seven wins in their previous 33 visits to Joe Louis Arena and Little Caesars Arena, though they've won each of their previous two trips to Detroit, winning by a combined 8-2 tally.

    The Kings have won five of the past six meetings between the teams overall, but have won consecutive games just twice all season. They will also be missing forward Ilya Kovalchuk for at least four weeks with an ankle injury.

    First vs. Worst

    The Ottawa Senators have looked a lot like the Nashville Predators over their previous two games – and now they'll get a glimpse of the real thing as they visit the Central Division leaders on Tuesday night. Despite back-to-back 2-1 overtime wins over the Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins, the Senators still boast the league's worst goals-against average at 3.94 – and they'll be in tough against a Predators team allowing just 2.53 goals per game, tied with Boston for the fewest in the NHL. Nashville has won eight straight when coming off a loss of three more goals; it fell 5-2 in Calgary on Saturday.

    McDavid/MacKinnon Showdown

    Two of the most highly-touted No. 1 picks of the past decade do battle in Denver on Tuesday when Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers tangle with Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche. McDavid comes into the week ranked fourth in league scoring with 41 points, and has recorded a point in all but four games this season. MacKinnon is having an even better campaign, sitting No. 2 in the league scoring race with 45 points, just three behind teammate Mikko Rantanen. MacKinnon has 10 points in 12 games vs. Edmonton; McDavid has 15 points in nine games against Colorado. They're both great point prop picks.

    There's no place like home

    In a sea of trends, there is one big fish bettors should look to corral this week as the Dallas Stars visit the Anaheim Ducks in a Western Conference tussle. The results of this head-to-head series have been quite predictable over the past several years, with the home team winning 11 straight meetings between the teams. All but two of those contests were decided by multiple goals, including each of the past three encounters. That makes the Ducks an intriguing play at the puck line, despite the fact that they have just nine wins in 18 home games so far
    Goalie Profile: Mikko Koskinen, Edmonton Oilers

    McDavid and linemate Leon Draisaitl are getting plenty of credit for the Oilers' resurgence, but without spectacular play from Koskinen, Edmonton would likely be in the midst of another disappointing season. Koskinen has seized the starting role with emphasis, posting a 2.06 goals-against average, a .929 save percentage and three shutouts through 14 games (13 starts) on the season. He has surrendered just eight goals with two SOs over his past six games, with the Oilers going a perfect 6-0 to the Under in that span.

    Injury Update

    While the Oilers find themselves breathing again thanks to the exploits of their new starting goalie, the Arizona Coyotes look like they'll have to do without their franchise netminder: Antti Raanta. That's the message from general manager John Chayka, who says Raanta is out indefinitely with a lower-body injury that could keep him sidelined for the rest of the 2018-19 campaign. It's a major blow for the Coyotes, who were hoping Raanta would return them to playoff prominence. He was also a boon to totals bettors, with Arizona having cashed the Over in his last seven appearances.

    Hat Trick Trends

    Given his second career as an amateur golfer, it's no surprise that referee Garrett Rank loves low scores. Rank's games have generated the most Under value of any official this season; he's 18-9 in favor of the Under for the year, good for -10.03 O/U units. Teams are averaging 5.44 combined goals when he's on the ice.

    The Over trend is back in a big way, with NHL games going 28-19 O/U over the past seven days (as of Monday); overtime games certainly played a role, with extra-time contests producing six overs against just three unders. That recent Over streak has pushed the season-long totals back to virtually even, with Overs leading Unders 218-217.

    Looking for a savvy period pick? Take the second period as the highest-scoring stanza in Tuesday's tilt between the Florida Panthers and the host St. Louis Blues. The Panthers lead the league in second-period goals with 42, and are also one of only three teams allowing 40 or more goals in the middle frame.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-10-2018 at 01:10 PM.

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