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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/6

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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/6

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, December 6

    Good Luck on day #340 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    XFL is going to be a spring football league that starts in 2020 in these cities:

    — Dallas (Globe Life Park)

    — Houston (TDECU Stadium)

    — Carson, CA (where the Chargers play now)

    — New Jersey (Met Life Stadium)

    — Seattle (Century Link Field)

    — St Louis (Edward Jones Dome)

    — Tampa (Raymond James Stadium)

    — Washington DC (Audi Field)


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) Arizona Diamondbacks traded their star 1B Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals Wednesday for P Luke Weaver, C Carson Kelly, a minor-leaguer and a draft pick.

    12) Denver Broncos’ WR Emmanuel Sanders tore his achilles in practice Wednesday, and is obviously out for the season. Sanders caught 71 balls for 898 yards this season.

    Within two hours of Sanders going down, Denver scooped up WR Andre Holmes off waivers from Buffalo. Holmes had previously played for OC Bill Musgrave in Oakland.

    11) There are 130 I-A college football teams; 10 of them are now coached by guys who were at one time, assistant coaches at Alabama under Nick Saban. Colorado hired Mel Tucker this week, the latest former Saban aide to get his own program to run.

    10) AAF is a spring football that starts in a couple months; they have eight teams and some big name coaches.

    XFL is another spring football league that will start in 2020 and won’t be like the goofy XFL that played in 2001, for one year only. Vince McMahon still owns the XFL; they’ll have eight teams, Oliver Luck is the commissioner- they’re going to pay their QB’s around $250,000 a year.

    9) San Antonio Spurs are only the 5th team in NBA history to lose three games by 30+ points within a week and they’re the first since the 2005-06 Trail Blazers.

    8) Adam Ottavino is a relief pitcher for the Colorado Rockies; he was on MLB Network the other day and he was saying how his father is a character actor in Hollywood who has been seen on Law and Order, NYPD Blue and in the movie Presumed Innocent, among others.

    7) Washington Redskins signed QB Josh Johnson to back up Mark Sanchez; Johnson was the 5th-round draft pick by Tampa Bay in ’08- he’s played in parts of 29 NFL games, is 0-5 as an NFL starter. He hasn’t appeared in an NFL game since ’14- he hasn’t thrown a pass since ’11.

    Johnson played his college ball at the U of San Diego (not San Diego State) where his coach was current Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh.

    6) When Notre Dame basketball player Rex Pflueger was in junior high, he was the QB of his 7th grade football team; one of his teammates was Sam Darnold, who is now obviously a QB in the NFL the first-round pick of the Jets last spring.

    5) Fresno State is favored over Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl; it is only the 11th time in last 80 meetings between the two leagues that the Mountain West team is favored over a Pac-12 opponent.

    4) Georgia State 83, Alabama 80— This game happened Tuesday night, when the Crimson Tide led by 21 at halftime and then lost. Georgia State had lost their previous game to Liberty by 26, so this was a terrible loss for Alabama.

    3) Miami, FL was picked to finish in the middle of the pack in ACC basketball this winter, but they’ve now lost four games in a row, the last two to Ivy League teams, so it could be a long winter for the Hurricanes.

    2) ACC football teams are 2-5 vs SEC opponents this year, 0-7 vs spread.

    1) One of three.soldiers killed by an IED explosion last week in Afghanistan.was a man named Drew Ross, who was the son of former Georgia Tech/Chargers’ coach Bobby Ross. and was in his second tour of duty overseas. RIP to all three people who passed away; very sad thing.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, December 6



    New York @ Boston

    Game 701-702
    December 6, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New York
    114.056
    Boston
    123.709
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 9 1/2
    220
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 13
    217 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New York
    (+13); Over

    Phoenix @ Portland


    Game 703-704
    December 6, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Phoenix
    108.457
    Portland
    113.333
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Portland
    by 5
    225
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Portland
    by 14
    216
    Dunkel Pick:
    Phoenix
    (+14); Over

    Houston @ Utah


    Game 705-706
    December 6, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    114.685
    Utah
    123.471
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Utah
    by 9
    217
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Utah
    by 2
    216
    Dunkel Pick:
    Utah
    (-2); Over





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, December 6


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    NEW YORK (8 - 17) at BOSTON (13 - 10) - 12/6/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOSTON is 70-50 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 35-22 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 7-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PHOENIX (4 - 20) at PORTLAND (13 - 11) - 12/6/2018, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHOENIX is 45-59 ATS (-19.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHOENIX is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    PHOENIX is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHOENIX is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    PHOENIX is 178-139 ATS (+25.1 Units) after allowing 115 points or more since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHOENIX is 5-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    PORTLAND is 7-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    HOUSTON (11 - 12) at UTAH (12 - 13) - 12/6/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    UTAH is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    UTAH is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 107-68 ATS (+32.2 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
    HOUSTON is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 8-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 9-4 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, December 6


    New York lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in their last eight road games. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. Celtics won four of their last five games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six home games. Boston’s last four games went over. Knicks lost seven of last ten games with Boston; they’re 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Beantown. Five of last seven games stayed under the total.

    Phoenix lost its last six games (0-6 vs spread); they’re 3-9 vs spread on road this season. Four of their last five games stayed under. Trailblazers lost six of their last seven games; they’re 1-10 vs spread in their last 11 games, 0-3 in last three home tilts. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Portland won its last seven games with Phoenix but the Suns covered last three; Phoenix is 4-1 vs spread in its last five visits to Oregon. Last four series games played here went over the total.

    Houston lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight road games. Eight of their last nine games went over the total. Utah won four of its last six games; they’re 4-5 vs spread at home this year. Six of their last nine games went over. Jazz lost eight of their last ten games with Houston; under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Rockets covered their last four visits to Salt Lake City.




    NBA

    Thursday, December 6


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    New York Knicks
    New York is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    New York is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games
    New York is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    New York is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 8 games on the road
    New York is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 7 games when playing Boston
    New York is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston Celtics
    Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
    Boston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games at home
    Boston is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games at home
    Boston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing New York
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing New York
    Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against New York
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against New York

    Phoenix Suns
    Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games
    Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Phoenix is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
    Phoenix is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Portland
    Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
    Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
    Phoenix is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 9 games
    Portland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 8 games at home
    Portland is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Phoenix
    Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
    Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
    Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix

    Houston Rockets
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games
    Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Utah
    Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
    Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games when playing on the road against Utah
    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games
    Utah is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    Utah is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games at home
    Utah is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Houston
    Utah is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games when playing Houston
    Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
    Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Utah's last 15 games when playing at home against Houston


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-06-2018 at 12:59 PM.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    Chris David

    If you bet the favorites in the NBA last night, then accept our congratulations as the ‘chalk’ went 10-0 straight up and 8-1-1 against the spread. The ‘over’ went 7-3 and that combination usually buries the folks behind the counter.

    Tonight’s card isn’t easy but we’re focusing on a quality matchup between Houston and Utah, who met in the second round of last year’s Western Conference playoffs.

    Houston (11-12 SU, 9-14 ATS) at Utah (12-13 SU, 12-13 ATS)

    With a quarter of the season in the books, I don’t think many pundits would’ve expected both Houston and Utah to sit below .500 but that’s the case when the pair meet from Salt Lake City on Thursday. Injuries have played a toll on both teams and VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia believes both clubs will get things together before the season really picks up in 2019.

    He explained, “Donovan Mitchell hasn’t been healthy for most of the season and has had so many off nights that you might think he’s got a touch of Markelle Fultz’s Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. He opened December by shooting 1-for-7 from beyond the arc in a 102-100 loss to the Heat in which he missed 16 of 24 shots. Last season’s Rookie of the Year runner-up has had games where he’s gone 1-for-11 and 0-for-7 from 3-point range, so bouncing back to shoot 4-for-6 in Wednesday’s blowout win over the Spurs is a great sign for the Jazz, who have to be hoping this early-season slump comes to an end here shortly. Mitchell scored a season-best 38 points, hitting 14-for-25 shots in 100-89 win on Oct. 24 over Houston.”

    “That outburst is a big deal because Mitchell only won one of nine games against Houston as a rookie, largely struggling as the Rockets swept the regular-season series before winning the Western Conference semifinal series 4-1. Getting their shooting guard going to ensure Chris Paul and James Harden have to work on the defensive end will determine whether the Jazz will hold serve at home and it bodes well that he’s done his best work thus far. Mitchell is shooting 35 percent from 3-point range in Salt Lake City as opposed to 29 percent on the road, so keep that in mind if you’re considering riding the Rockets or the under,” Mejia added.

    The Rockets were listed as one-point underdogs in the October meeting Paul was suspended for that game due to his run-in with Rondo and the Lakers. For the rematch, Utah opened as a two-point home favorite and considering it was catching 4 ˝ and six points in last year’s playoffs, it shows you the respect given to the Jazz from the oddsmakers or the lack of respect for the Rockets.

    As Mejia mentioned, Houston got the better of Utah last year and that included a perfect 4-0 record both SU and ATS from Vivint Smart Home Arena. While that mark is impressive, the Rockets limp into this matchup with a dreadful road record (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) and that includes a 1-4 run heading into this game. On Monday, Houston dropped a 103-91 decision at Minnesota and it was only able to muster up nine points in the fourth quarter.

    Backing Utah at home has been a great investment (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) but it is coming off 139-105 win over San Antonio on Tuesday as an eight-point ‘chalk’ while drilling 20-of-33 (61%) bombs from 3-point land. That victory improved the Jazz to 5-1 versus teams below .500 and while Houston is still considered a contender, it’s currently a losing club as noted above.

    The total on this game opened 218 and dropped quickly to 216 ˝ and I was surprised by the move. Utah has been a great ‘over’ team at home (8-1) and Houston has started to regain its form as an ‘over’ club too. Despite the scoring drought in the final 12 minutes against the T-Wolves on Monday, Houston was averaging 121.6 points per game in its previous eight games and that led to an 8-0 ‘over’ run.

    After this game, the Rockets head to Dallas on Friday while the Jazz get a quick rematch at San Antonio on Sunday.

    There are two other games on tap for Thursday and, based on the opening numbers, are expecting a pair of blowouts.

    New York at Boston (-12 ˝, Total 218 ˝)

    Quick revenge game for the Celtics, who lost to the Knicks 117-109 on Nov. 21 as 14 ˝-point home favorites. Since that setback, Boston has won and covered four of its last five and the offense is finally coming together. The unit is averaging 117.6 PPG during this stretch and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 4-1. Despite owning a lowing record (8-17), the Knicks have returned profits for bettors (14-10-1 ATS) this season. The issue for New York is its defense (114.4 PPG) and if you’re taking the points, then you better hope they get into the 110-120 range offensively. Backing Boston as a home favorite (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) hasn’t been a smart decision but they have covered in five of their six wins. As a double-digit favorite this season, the Celtics have gone 2-2 both SU and ATS. Including the aforementioned upset at TD Garden a couple weeks ago, the Knicks are 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs. Total bettors should note that the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in those games and we’ve seen the number for the rematch open a few points higher (218 ˝ from 215 ˝).

    Phoenix at Portland (-14, Total 215)

    I try not to back an underdog with the points unless I believe they can win the game outright and right now, I don’t see how you can justify taking Phoenix in this spot especially with both Devin Booker (hamstring) and TJ Warren (ankle) on the sidelines for the Suns. Portland could be missing CJ McCollum (ankle) as well tonight and making a case for the Trail Blazers is next to impossible. The club has dropped eight straight games ATS and they’re 2-6 straight up during this span. Portland has better home numbers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) but its current form should have most passing tonight. For what it’s worth, the Suns have gone 1-7 SU and 4-4 ATS as double-digit underdogs this season. The Blazers have won seven straight against the Suns in this series but they’re just 3-4 ATS.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-06-2018 at 01:00 PM.

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    Hoop Trends - Thursday
    Vince Akins

    ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

    The Celtics are 12-0-1 ATS (9.81 ppg) off a win as a dog in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes

    ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

    The Jazz are 0-8-1 ATS (-4.67 ppg) as a home favorite with less than two days rest after they shot 50% or better from beyond the arc with at least 10 attempts.

    OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

    The Knicks are 9-0 OU (18.28 ppg) as a dog with more than one day of rest.

    OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

    The Celtics are 0-9 OU (-10.33 ppg) off a win as a dog where they were outscored in the paint by double digits.

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    By: Monique Vág



    Quick off the blocks

    The Celtics host the Knicks as 13-point favorites and both teams have gotten off to quick starts over their previous three games. The Celtics average 31 first-quarter points and 58.7 for the half over that span, while the Knicks average 29 in the first quarter, and 56.7 for the half.

    In the head-to-head over their most recent three contests, the Knicks have gotten out to a better start with a halftime average of 56.3 points. With such a large spread, it is imperative the Knicks come out and play with a sense of urgency, otherwise this game will be over quick. Take the Knicks to keep it close early and back them on the first-half spread of +7.5.


    Leading the offensive charge

    Tim Hardaway Jr. was efficient in the first meeting between these two in November, going eight of 19 from the floor, including four of seven from behind the arc. He added four rebounds, and four assists to go along with 21 points in a Knicks eight point victory.

    Although his stats have dipped a little bit, he's still New York's best offensive weapon and should finish the game with the most field goals attempted and points scored for his team. Look for him to find success once again and back his points, rebounds, and assists total Over 26.5.


    Blazers looking to break out of slump

    The Blazers are happy to return home, where they are 8-4 on the season. Portland has been in a huge slump lately losing seven of their most recent 10 games, but are 13.5-point favorites against a Suns team who are once again missing Devin Booker.

    Phoenix has been terrible away from home winning only one of 11 games. They have not been any better historically versus the Blazers going 0-5 over their most recent five meetings. Scoring points in the first half has been an issue for Phoenix as they rank last in the Association with 50.7 points per game. Expect the Blazers to come out desperate for a win, and take their first half spread -7.5.


    Ugly on offense

    Continuing with the Suns' struggles on the offensive end of the floor, they average just 103 points a contest. The Suns have been held under 100 points nine times this season, and three times over their most recent four games. Back their team total Under 102.


    Playing trends

    Both the Rockets and Jazz enter today's contest in Salt Lake City relatively healthy, with no notable names on the injury report. Both sides have similar stats across the board, so it is no surprise their records are almost identical as well.

    Over their most recent three games, both teams have played solid defense. Opponents have shot 44.5 percent versus the Rockets, and 46 percent versus the Jazz over that stretch. In the head-to-head between these two, the Under has hit in five of the most recent seven games, including 10 of the last 15 in Utah. Look into backing the trend, and taking the Under 215.5.

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