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Thread: NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Sat., Dec. 8)

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    Default NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Sat., Dec. 8)


    Navy vs. Army


    NCAAF Trends and Indexes

    Saturday, December 8

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:

    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Army vs. Navy
    Tom Wilkinson

    The script has flipped in the Army-Navy rivalry, as now it is Army that is the better team and on a winning streak in the series. The Navy Midshipmen beat Army for 14 straight seasons and the series became known more for the “streak” than anything else.

    That changed two years ago when Army broke the streak and now it is the Army Black Knights who have won two straight. Let’s look at this matchup on Saturday and college football picks.

    Date and Time: Saturday, December 8, 2018, 12:00 p.m. ET
    Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
    College Football Odds: Army -7, O/U 41
    Army vs. Navy TV Coverage: CBS

    This season the favorite in this game is Army, as they come into the game ranked in the Top 25 in the country, while Navy won just three games and finished 3-9. The Black Knights are not worried about extending the streak to three against Army; they are just concerned about winning this game. “It’s not really about the streak. It’s about winning the next game. That is what Army football is all about,” Army starting center Bryce Holland said to the media, “We always talk about going 1-0 each week. So we’re not worried about holding on to some streak. We’re concerned with winning this next game against Navy.”

    Despite the fact that Army is the better team this season, head coach Jeff Monken is not confident. “I’m scared to death, just like I always am leading up to this game,” Monken said to the media, “For one, I know that Navy is really well-coached. I know Kenny and his staff will have their team very well prepared.”

    Monken said that Navy could easily have finished with a winning record this season, as they lost to SMU by a point in overtime and to Tulane by a point. They also blew leads and lost to Temple and Houston.

    This series has seen close games and it hasn’t mattered what the records of the two teams were. Navy won 11 games in 2015 and had to get two interceptions late in the game to hold on for a 21-17 win. Army had their best season in twenty years last season and yet they had to survive a missed field goal at the end to win 14-13.

    It should be noted that Army has found a way to win close games. Nine of their last 19 wins have been by seven points or less. “They are doing a really good job of continuing to battle to the finish,” Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo said to the media, “They got a belief. They have a system in what they are doing offensively and defensively. It’s really impressive with what they have done.”

    Matchup to Watch

    Both of these teams love to run the ball, as Navy is third in the country in rushing yards per game, while Army is second. The difference in these two teams is on defense. How is Navy going to slow down the Army rushing attack? Navy is 89th in the country against the run. On the other side, the Army defense is 12th in the country against the run.

    Key Stats

    The Midshipmen are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Midshipmen are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Midshipmen are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Under is 14-4 in Navy’s last 18 games in December. The Under is 9-3 in Navy’s last 12 neutral site games. The Under is 13-3 in the Black Knights last 16 games in December. The Under is 16-5 in the Black Knights last 21 neutral site games. The Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-04-2018 at 12:54 PM.

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    NCAAF
    Dunkel

    Week 15


    Saturday, December 8

    Navy @ Army

    Game 103-104
    December 8, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Navy
    78.171
    Army
    88.942
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Army
    by 11
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Army
    by 6 1/2
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Army
    (-6 1/2); Over





    NCAAF
    Long Sheet


    Saturday, December 8

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    NAVY (3 - 9) vs. ARMY (9 - 2) - 12/8/2018, 3:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARMY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
    NAVY is 172-131 ATS (+27.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
    NAVY is 172-131 ATS (+27.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    NAVY is 98-60 ATS (+32.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    NAVY is 156-118 ATS (+26.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
    NAVY is 74-42 ATS (+27.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    NAVY is 80-45 ATS (+30.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
    ARMY is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
    ARMY is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARMY is 2-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
    ARMY is 2-0 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NCAAF
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 15


    Saturday
    Army is favored over Navy for first time since 2001. Underdogs covered six of last seven Army-Navy games, with Army winning last two, 21-17/14-13. Cadets won last seven games overall; they’re 3-2-1 vs spread as a favorite this year. Army’s last two games were vs I-AA teams; this is their first game against a I-A team since Nov 3. This is Navy’s worst season since 2002; they lost eight of their nine games, but they did cover four of last five games. Middies are 9-7 vs spread in their last 16 games as an underdog. Four of last five Army games, four of last six Navy games went over the total.




    NCAAF

    Week 15


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    Trend Report
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    Saturday, December 8

    Navy Midshipmen
    Navy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Navy is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 6 games
    Navy is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Army
    Navy is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Army
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Navy's last 5 games when playing Army
    Army Black Knights
    Army is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Army's last 7 games
    Army is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Navy
    Army is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing Navy
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Army's last 5 games when playing Navy


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    Last edited by Udog; 12-07-2018 at 10:18 PM.

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    Navy vs Army college football betting picks and predictions: Can Black Knights sink Midshipmen again?

    Between the flurry of conference championships and the highly anticipated college bowl season, there's the annual Army-Navy showdown and this year's edition will have plenty of intrigue as the storied programs face off Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Army comes into the game ranked inside the top 25 at season's end for the first time in more than two decades, and should be a popular choice among bettors, having covered six of the previous seven meetings. Navy struggled for the majority of the season but will almost certainly be up for this one, looking to end a two-game losing streak to the Black Knights.

    Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights (-6.5, 40)

    QUICK-HITTER

    You can point to several factors that have contributed to Navy's down season and most of those involve the Midshipmen's showing on the road. Not only did Navy fail to win a game away from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, the Midshipmen were all sorts of terrible in the early stages of those contests, scoring zero first-quarter points. You read that correctly: Navy didn't score a single first-quarter point on the road in 2018. So let's not count on much early offense from the Midshipmen. Combine that with Army's 45:8 TD-to-FG scoring ratio this past season, and we like a Black Knights TD to open the scoring.

    Prediction:
    First scoring play - Army TD (+100)


    FIRST HALF BET

    The first 30 minutes will likely come down to how efficient the Black Knights will be on the ground against Navy's run defense and if things go as expected, Army should have a comfortable halftime lead. The Black Knights rumbled for a whopping 303 rushing yards per game second only to Georgia Tech while racking up 37 touchdowns on the ground. And while Navy is a close third in the country at 288.5 rushing yards per contest, the difference here is in the run defenses, with Army ranking 12th (106.5 YPG against) and Navy tied for 89th (189.0). We suggest taking the Black Knights to cover the first half spread.

    Prediction:
    First-half spread - Army -3.5 (-115)


    TEAM/PLAYER BET

    The Black Knights certainly won't be confused with Oklahoma or Alabama, but their run-heavy offense has produced better than 30 points per game this season en route to a surprise spot in the top 25. Contrast that with Navy having given up 29 or more points in eight of their final nine games this season and 35+ in five of those contests and it's a bit surprising to see the Army team total so low. Perhaps oddsmakers believe both teams will soak up the clock with their stout running games. We feel differently, and believe the over on the Black Knights' total is one of the safest plays available.

    Prediction:
    Army Over 24.5 team total (-110)


    FULL-GAME SIDE

    These two teams aren't really in the same stratosphere heading into their latest tete-a-tete, with Army rolling to a 9-2 record on the strength of six double-digit victories and Navy kicking off the season with a 1-8 ATS mark before salvaging three straight covers to end the campaign. Army has covered each of the previous four meetings between the teams, and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their past four with an extra week between games. Navy, meanwhile, has just two covers in its past eight games vs. teams above .500. It all adds up to what could be a rather comfortable cover for the Black Knights.

    Prediction:
    Army -6.5 (-110)


    FULL-GAME TOTAL

    You won't find many end-of-season totals this low, but these aren't your ordinary December competitors. Both teams have been sensational under options over the final month of the calendar, with Navy going 14-4 to the under in its past 18 December games and Army going below the number in 21 of its past 26 games this month. And let's not overlook the fact that these teams have played 10 consecutive unders, going above 40 combined points just three times over that stretch. It's hard to take the under with a total this low, but it's the more prudent option from a trends standpoint.

    Prediction:
    Under 40 (-110)

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