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Thread: Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/3

  1. #1
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    Default Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/3

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, December 3

    Good Luck on day #337 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks for Week 13 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

    1) Colts -4 (1,029) L

    2) Steelers -3.5 (961) L

    3) Falcons -1 (911) L

    4) Giants +5.5 (826) W

    5) Patriots -5 (776) W

    6) Seahawks -9.5 (731) W

    Season record: 40-35-3


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    Cardinals 20, Packers 17—14-point underdog Arizona ended lot of Survivor pools with this win; they also ended Mike McCarthy’s tenure as Packers’ coach- he was fired before the 4:00 games ended. Green Bay missed a 49-yard FG at the gun, as Packers lost for 5th time in last six games. This was the Cardinals’ first win in Wisconsin since 1949- they had lost their last eight visits there.

    Green Bay has only one offensive TD in 2nd half of their last three games. Right now, the Packers would draft after Cleveland; who would’ve expected that this summer? Will be very interested to see who this team hires as their next head coach.

    Giants 30, Bears 27 OT— An unusual game:
    — Chicago gifted the Giants with a defensive TD 0:38 into the game.
    — Bears scored a TD, with a defensive lineman carrying the ball.
    — Giants ended the first half by making a 57-yard FG.
    — Giants took the lead when a WR threw a 49-yard TD pass.
    — Bears were down 10 with 1:30 left, but kicked a FG, recovered an onside kick, then tied the game on a pass by a RB at the gun.
    — Giants won in OT; they’ve won three of their last four games.
    — Seven of last nine Chicago games, last four New Jersey games went over total.

    Jaguars 6, Colts 0— Second NFL game this season without a TD scored; other one was also a Jaguar home game (9-6 win over Titans). There was another game with no offensive TD’s scored (Jets-Dolphins) but there was a defensive TD in that game.

    Loss snaps a 5-game Indy win streak, 7-game Jacksonville losing skid; Jaguar QB Kessler gets first win as an NFL starter (1-8) after losing all this starts for Cleveland in ’16.

    Buccaneers 24, Panthers 17— Carolina loses its 4th game in row; they have one takeaway in those four games. Newton threw four INTs in this game. Panthers are 1-5 on road this year, and they were down 17-0 in third quarter of that game. Carolina is still only game out of second Wild Card spot, if Redskins lose Monday night.

    First time in 10 years this season series was split; Buccaneers had 14-yard edge in field position. Bucs have only one giveaway in last two games, after 27 in previous nine games.

    Rams 30, Lions 16— Aaron Donald is freakin’ awesome; for second game in row, his strip/sack created an LA TD that put them in commanding position. Rams scored 30 points but watching the game, I felt like Detroit has a good defense; two of Rams’ three TD drives started in Detroit territory. LA beat spread for only second time in last eight games, running ball for 149 yards.

    First time since 1979 Rams won NFC West in consecutive seasons. Five of last six Detroit games stayed under the total; Lions had ball in red zone five times, scored only one TD, three FG’s- very hard to beat the Rams scoring only one TD. Rams are now 9-2-1 vs spread in their last 12 post-bye games.

    Ravens 26, Falcons 16— Whats happened to Atlanta’s offense? They gained total of only 131 yards in this game, throwing for only 97. Falcons lost last four games, scoring 16-19-17-16 points- their longest play in this game was 17 yards.

    Both teams scored one offensive TD and each team scored a defensive TD.

    At this point, Baltimore is the #6 seed in the AFC; Lamar Jackson is now 3-0 as an NFL starter; will Joe Flacco get traded this winter?

    Texans 29, Browns 13— Houston won its last nine games after starting season 0-3; they’re 17-10-1 vs spread in last 28 games as a home favorite, and covered five of last six tilts overall.

    Cleveland turned ball over four times (-4), after having four giveaways total in their previous five games. Since ’15, Cleveland is 10-19-1 as road underdogs, 2-3-1 this year. Browns outgained Houston in this game while running 22 fewer plays (74-52), but when you’re -4 in turnovers, you lose just about all the time.

    Dolphins 21, Bills 17— Buffalo outgained Dolphins 415-175 but lost; they turned ball over three times (-2). Miami is 4-0 when it allows 20 or fewer points, 1-6 when they allow more. Dolphins are still struggling on 3rd down; they’ve converted just 17 of last 63 3rd down plays.

    Dolphins are 5-1 at home this season; last two years, Fish are 3-0-2 as home favorites, 2-0-1 this season. Buffalo ran ball for 212-167-198 yards in its last three games. Under is 3-0-1 in Miami’s last four games.

    Broncos 24, Bengals 10— I’m told that quarterback is an important position, and it doesn’t look like Cincinnati has one, with Andy Dalton injured. Denver ran ball for 218 yards, had 10-yard edge in field position, sending Bengals to sixth loss in their last seven games. Last four years, Broncos are 9-4-1 as road favorites, 2-0 this year. Last five Denver games stayed under total.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-03-2018 at 01:09 PM.

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    Monday's Tip Sheet
    David Schwab

    The Big Ten’s unique scheduling allows for five days of conference play in early December ahead of the shift to a full season of conference play after the first of the year. Two of the matchups on the slate for Monday night start with No. 14 Iowa on the road against No. 9 Michigan State. Later Monday night, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will go on the road to square off against No. 22 Wisconsin.

    In earlier Big Ten play this Saturday, the 6-2 Indiana Hoosiers squeezed out a two-point 68-66 victory against 6-2 Northwestern as seven-point home favorites to hand the Wildcats their first straight-up loss of the season. The No. 24 Maryland Terrapins covered as 6 ½-point home favorites in a 66-59 win against the 4-3 Penn State Nittany Lions to move to 7-1 on the year.

    In the biggest matchup of the day in the Big Ten, the No. 7 Michigan Wolverines covered as six-point favorites at home with a solid 76-57 victory against the No. 19 Purdue Boilermakers. Michigan remains perfect on the year at 8-0 and Purdue dropped to 5-3.

    No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 9 Michigan State Spartans (FOX Sports 1, 6:30 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Michigan State -10, 158


    Betting Matchup

    The Hawkeyes opened Big Ten play on Friday with a 72-66 loss at home to Wisconsin as two-point underdogs. This was their first SU loss of the season against six previous wins. Iowa is just 2-5 against the spread in its first seven games with the total staying UNDER in four of those contests. This includes Friday’s loss on a closing line of 141 ½ points. Three starters scored in double figures against the Badgers led by junior forward Tyler Cook’s 19 points.

    Michigan State got a strong effort from junior guard Cassius Winston (22 points) and junior forward Nick Ward (20 points) in Friday night’s 78-67 road victory against Rutgers as an eight-point favorite. This followed a 82-78 loss to Louisville on Nov. 27 as a five-point road favorite. The Spartans are 6-2 SU with a 5-3 record ATS. The total went OVER in each of their last two contests after staying UNDER in their previous four games.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in four of their last five games coming off a SU loss and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five games on the road.

    -- The Spartans are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five home games.

    -- Head-to-head, Michigan State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes have a 3-1 edge ATS in the last four meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six games between the two.

    Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 22 Wisconsin Badgers (BTN, 8 p.m. ET)

    Opening Odds: Wisconsin -13, 125


    Betting Matchup

    Prior to Friday’s loss to Michigan State, the Scarlet Knights had won five of their first six games SU with a 4-2 record ATS. Their biggest win came against the ACC’s Miami Hurricanes on Nov. 28 in a 57-54 victory as 11-point road underdogs. The total went OVER 134 points in Friday’s game after staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in Rutgers’ previous four contests. Junior forward Eugene Omoruyi is the team’s leading scorer with 15.1 points a game while also pulling down a team-high 9.1 rebounds a game. He has posted two double-doubles in his last three games.

    Wisconsin improved to 7-1 SU with the win against Iowa. Earlier in November, the Badgers beat Xavier 77-68 as two-point underdogs in the only game this season they were not favored to win. They are 5-3 ATS overall with the total going OVER in five of the eight games. Sophomore guard D’Mitrik Trice had the hot hand for Wisconsin on Friday night with 20 points while going 6-for-14 from the field. He has now eclipsed his team-high 17.4-point scoring average in three of his last four games.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Scarlet Knights are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games played on Monday and the total has gone OVER in five of their last six Big Ten games.

    -- The Badgers have a 9-2 record ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a SU winning record with the total staying UNDER in five of their last seven home games.

    -- The home team in this matchup has covered in the last five meetings. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in the last three meetings.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-03-2018 at 01:10 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, December 3


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    IOWA (6 - 1) at MICHIGAN ST (6 - 2) - 12/3/2018, 6:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    IOWA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    IOWA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN ST is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN ST is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MICHIGAN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
    MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TROY (3 - 4) at FLORIDA ST (6 - 1) - 12/3/2018, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TROY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    RUTGERS (5 - 2) at WISCONSIN (7 - 1) - 12/3/2018, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    RUTGERS is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    RUTGERS is 2-1 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
    WISCONSIN is 2-1 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NIAGARA (2 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 1) - 12/3/2018, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
    PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    N DAKOTA ST (2 - 6) at IOWA ST (6 - 1) - 12/3/2018, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    N DAKOTA ST is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    N DAKOTA ST is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    N DAKOTA ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    N DAKOTA ST is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    N DAKOTA ST is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    N DAKOTA ST is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    N DAKOTA ST is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
    N DAKOTA ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    N DAKOTA ST is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    IOWA ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, December 3


    Michigan State won 11 of last 13 games with Iowa; Hawkeyes lost 11 of last 12 visits to East Lansing, with lone win three years ago. Spartans are 6-2 vs schedule #32; they won their first conference game by 11 at Rutgers Friday. MSU is experience team #94 that has made 41.5% of its 3’s so far. Spartans start three juniors, two seniors. Iowa is 6-1, losing Big 14 home opener by 6 to Wisconsin; Hawkeyes are #247 in experience (#32 in MC)- they’re best team in country at getting to foul line, but this will be their first true road game this season.

    Troy State is 2-4 vs D-I teams after losing last game to Austin Peay in OT; Trojans are 0-2 in true road games, losing at Saint Louis by 4, at Pitt by 9. Troy is experience team #106 that has played schedule #276- they’re playing slowish (#293) pace and making only 30.5% of their 3’s. Florida State is 6-1 vs schedule #19; their last three games were all decided by 6 or fewer points- all three were against top 50 teams. Seminoles are experience team #123 that is turning ball over 21.7% of time. Sun Belt road underdogs are 10-8 vs spread this season.

    Wisconsin is 3-2 vs Rutgers in Big 14 play; home side won all four regular season meetings, with Scarlet Knights losing visits to Madison by 22-20 points. Rutgers is 5-2 vs schedule #158, with an upset win at Miami in their only true road game. Knights are experience team #311 that is turning ball over 20.8% of time, shooting only 57.5% on foul line. Wisconsin is 7-1 vs schedule #13, with only loss by 7 to Virginia in finals of Atlantis tourney. Badgers have made 42.1% of their 3’s; they’re starting three sophomores, two seniors.

    Niagara lost its last three games, all vs teams ranked #193 or lower; they lost last two games to the two St Francis teams- no bueno. Purple Eagles have eFG% #343, shooting 28.3% on arc, 41.2% inside arc- they’re experience team #104. Niagara starts a frosh and two sophs. Pitt is 7-1 vs schedule #337 in Capel’s first year as coach; Panthers are #295 experience team whose eFG% defense is #15 in country, forcing turnovers 22% of time. Pitt starts three freshmen, two juniors- they beat local rival Duquesne 76-53 in last game Friday.

    North Dakota State is 2-6 vs schedule #143, losing true road games by 17-18-42 points; Bison are #298 experience team whose subs are playing #38 minutes- their eFG% defense is in bottom 10 in country, losing last game 95-88 to Drake in last game Saturday. ND State starts two frosh and a sophomore. Iowa State is 6-1 vs schedule #194; they’ve got some guys out- their bench is playing 7th-fewest minutes in country. Cyclones are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with wins by 26-12-27 points.




    NCAAB

    Monday, December 3


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    Trend Report
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    Iowa @ Michigan State
    Iowa
    Iowa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Iowa's last 10 games on the road
    Michigan State
    Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Michigan State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Iowa

    Liberty @ Georgetown University
    Liberty
    No trends to report
    Georgetown University
    Georgetown University is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgetown University's last 6 games

    Vermont @ George Mason
    Vermont
    No trends to report
    George Mason
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of George Mason's last 14 games at home
    George Mason is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home

    Morgan State @ Virginia
    Morgan State
    No trends to report
    Virginia
    Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    Texas Southern @ Georgia
    Texas Southern
    No trends to report
    Georgia
    Georgia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia's last 6 games at home

    Reinhardt @ East Tennessee State
    Reinhardt
    No trends to report
    East Tennessee State
    No trends to report

    St. Joseph's College @ St. Francis-Brooklyn
    St. Joseph's College
    No trends to report
    St. Francis-Brooklyn
    No trends to report

    Niagara @ Pittsburgh
    Niagara
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Niagara's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Niagara's last 5 games
    Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games

    UMBC @ Coppin State
    UMBC
    No trends to report
    Coppin State
    No trends to report

    Cairn @ Delaware State
    Cairn
    No trends to report
    Delaware State
    No trends to report

    North Dakota State @ Iowa State
    North Dakota State
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Dakota State's last 7 games
    North Dakota State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Iowa State
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Iowa State's last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Iowa State's last 7 games at home

    Rutgers @ Wisconsin
    Rutgers
    Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Rutgers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    Wisconsin
    Wisconsin is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    Wisconsin is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

    Troy @ Florida State
    Troy
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games
    Troy is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Florida State
    Florida State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    Florida State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

    Northwestern State @ Texas A&M
    Northwestern State
    No trends to report
    Texas A&M
    Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Northwestern State
    Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Northwestern State

    Florida A&M @ DePaul
    Florida A&M
    No trends to report
    DePaul
    DePaul is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    DePaul is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

    College of Idaho @ Montana
    College of Idaho
    No trends to report
    Montana
    Montana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Montana is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games

    Cal State-Northridge @ Pepperdine
    Cal State-Northridge
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cal State-Northridge's last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cal State-Northridge's last 6 games on the road
    Pepperdine
    Pepperdine is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    Pepperdine is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-03-2018 at 01:11 PM.

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